www.pwc.

ru/automotive

:
1 2014 .


PwC,

2014

PwC


2014 1
2014
: 1- (
) 2- (
).
2014
7% 3% .
,
.

, . .

, . .

-
2014

-
2013

-
2014

-
2013

204

240

-15%

2,5

2,9

-14%

616

610

1%

16,5

15,7

5%

340

400

-15%

12,5

14

-11%

1 160

1 250

-7%

31,5

32,6

-3%

: , , -, PwC

PwC

 2014


2013- 2014
2014

2013

300

5%

10%

4%

250

5%

2%
0%

200

0%

-2%
-4%

-4%

-5%

-6%

150
-8%
100

-8%
-12%

-5%

-8%

-8%
-10%

-11%

50

-10%

-12%

-17%

-15%

-20%

, . .
, %
: , PwC

PwC

 1- 2- 2014 .

1 2014
50037
36
450

2 2014
34%

Mercedes S Class

40035

24%

34
350
30033

14%
11%

25032
20031

7%
-2%

6%

13%
7%

0%

-6%

4%

4%

-8%

30
150

,

1 2014*

12014 12013
389%

Jeep Grand Cherokee

120%

Range Rover Sport

108%

Chevrolet Cobalt

97%

KIA Soul

71%

Chevrolet Spark

47%

Mercedes A class

45%

CX-5

40%

Mercedes E class

38%

Ford Kuga

37%

-6%
-12%

100
29

-17%

-16%

,

1 2014*

12014 12013

50
28

Citroen C4

-85%

Suzuki SX4

-65%

027

Ford Focus

-56%

-26%

RUB/USD 12014
( / -).

, 22014.
, . .
/, % ( )
/ , % ( )
RUB/USD ( )

PwC

Honda Civic

-51%

Peugeot 408

-49%

VW Passat CC

-48%

Daewoo Matiz

-48%

Mercedes B Class

-46%

Hyundai i30

-44%

Peugeot 3008

-44%

: , PwC
: ,
1 2013 . 400 .



2014 .
,
,
1 2014.

6%
4.8%
4.3%

4%

3.5%
-4%

3%

-5%

1.2%

-11% -11%

, %
, %

: ,

PwC

2011 .

-14%

.2014

214

.2014

114

.2013

413

.2013

313

.2013

213

.2012

113

.2012

412

.2012

312

.2011

212

-8%

0.8%

0%
112

-6%
-7%

-9%

.2011

1.0%

-7%

-8%

1.3%

.2011

0.8%

-6%

-7%

.2011

2%
1%

-6%

2.0%

.2013

2.1%

.2012

5%

2011- 2014 .



.
.
2013 . RUB/USD 15%,
,
. , 2 2014 .
, 2013 .

USD/RUB
2013- 2014 . ( . )
0,032

2 2014 .

0,031
0,030
0,029
0,028
0,027

2013
2014
15%...

0,026
0,025
.2013

.2013

: , PwC

.2014

.2014

( ,
)

2012

2013

2014
6 .

2014

3,4%

1,3%

1%

0,5%

6,6%

6,2%

4,8%

6,7%

()

31,1

31,8

35,0

35,5

4,6%

3,3%

-0,2%

0,5%

-6%

-7%

-6%

/ ,
. .

-55

-63

-74,6*

-90

: , ,
*

PwC


, ,


1 2013 1 2014 ., . .
1,400

1,331

1,350
1,300

-140

1,250

1,230
39

1,200
1,150

1 2014 .

1,100

Lada
Ford
Chevrolet
VW
Renault
GAZ
Opel
UAZ

1,050
1,000
950
900

1 2013

24%
14%
11%
7%
6%
5%
4%
4%
25%

-33,9 . .
-19,8 . .
-14,9 . .
-9,2 . .
-8,2 . .
-6,4 . .
-6,1 . .
-5,4 . .
-35,3 . .

1 2014 .
Nissan
Mercedes
Mazda
Toyota
Jeep
Lexus
Mitsubishi
Land Rover

48%
10%
9%
9%
5%
3%
2%
2%
12%

+18,6 . .
+3,7 . .
+3,7 . .
+3,4 . .
+1,8 . .
+1,2 . .
+0,8 . .
+0,8 . .
+4,5 . .

1 2014

: , PwC

PwC


2014
/
/
( LCV)

2013 ()

2014 (
)

2014 (
)

487

430 (-12%)

410 (-16%)

1 310

1 270 (-3%)

1 240 (-5%)

813

690 (-15%)

650 (-20%)

2 610

2 390 (-8%)

2 300 (-12%)

, ,
, 2014 .,
-12% -8%.

PwC



: 1) 2) .

CAGR 3,2%

2012 .

2012

2.8

2.7
2.5

2.4
1.8
1.4

2.6

2.4
2.3

2.4
2.3

2.6
2.4

2.8
2.5

CAGR 3,1%
2.9
2.6

3.0
2.7

3.1
2.7

3.2
2.8

3.3
2.9

3.3
3.0

3.4
3.0

3.5
3.1

1.8
1.4

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
: PwC

PwC

10

PwC


: 5



KIA New Rio

100%

Renault Duster

100%

VW Polo
100%

Renault Logan

100%

Skoda Octavia A7
Renault Sandero

-5

1 2014

25

93%

19

100%

19
19

Lada 4x4

100%

19

Hyundai ix35

75% -20

1 2014

18

Chevrolet Cruze

100%

16

Toyota Camry

100%

16

46%

15

Ford Focus

100%

15

Nissan Qashqai

15

KIA Sportage

14

KIA New Ceed

13
77%

13

Mitrubishi Outlander
Nissan X-Trail

32
25

Toyota RAV 4

Opel Astra

41

100%

Nissan Almera

Toyota Corolla

47

6% 12
100%

12

.

,

.

PwC

12


3,0 . /. 5
3,8 /
OEM
GM

Hyundai
Ford

Ford

- +
550 .

Toyota

Nissan

Renault

130

190

250

Renault-Nissan

80

75

100

1100

300

PSMA

Volkswagen

3,0

GM-

+0,8

-
-

Sollers
Derways

70

115

: PwC

PwC

13




:
,
,

. 2005
()

. 2011
*

25 . .

300-350 . .

7-8

8 , 31.12.2020 .

1
2
3
4
5
6
7

SKD-
SKD-
CKD
10%
10%
20%
30%

35%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
60%

/;
;

().`
2005

2011

: , 166, 566,
: (*) Toyota 2009 . ( .. 150 . ., .)

PwC

2018
14

2018 . 2020 . ,

. , ,
,
.
60%

30

25

, %

20
15

:
()

74%

Renault

55%

GM-*

51%

Volkswagen

42%

Nissan

38%

Ford

37%

10

PSMA

66%
20%

Hyundai

Toyota

0
2011

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

: , , PwC

PwC

48%
10%

, . 2011 .
, . 2005 .
,

: , , PwC
: (*) 2012 .
GM 20%.

15

-20 (1 2)

2013, . $

1.

Continental

44,3

.,
.

2.

Bosch

40,6

.,
.

3.

Denso

38,1

4.

Magna

34,8

/ .,
, .,
.

5.

Bridgestone

31,1

6.

Hyundai Mobis

30,4

/ .

7.

Johnson Control

28,1

/ .,
.

8.

Aisin

27,8

9.

Faurecia

24,5

10.

Michelin

23,2

/ .,
.,
., .
.

* -
: , PwC

PwC

16

-20 (2 2)

2013, . $

11.

ZF

22,9

.,
.

12.

Goodyear

19,5

13.

TRW Automotive

17,4

14.

Cummins

17,3

15.

Delphi

16,5

,
,
.

16,2

/ .,
, ,
.

BASF

12,8

19.

ThyssenKrupp

12,6

20.

Sumitomo

11,0

16.

Valeo SA

16,4

17.

Lear Corp

18.

* -
: , PwC

PwC

17

2 500

2 000
Michelin Group

1 500
Lear Corporation

1 000

Toyota Boshoku
Dupont
Cummins
Heyes Lemmerz
Federal-Mogul

Faurecia Group
Nokian Tyres
Magneti Marelli
ZF
Knoig-Bremse
Saint-Gobain
Sekurit
Seimens

Tenneco Inc.
Pilkington

500

Magna International Inc.

TI Automotive Russia
Chemetall GmbH
Shin Young
WPT
Bosal
Magna
Valeo Climate Control
Leoni
Fuchs Petrolub
Continental
Anvis
TRV GROUP
Raviv ACS

Saargummi Group
Benteler
AAT
IHI
Daido Metal
Orhan

BASF SE
Gestamp-Severstal
Prevent Grup
Visteon Corporation
Grupo Antolin
Scherdel GmbH
Donghee
Hyundai Mobis
Daewon
Doowon
Hyundai Hysco
Hyundai Mobis
Bekaert
HP Pelzer
CIE Automotive
Sisecam

Anvis Group
Gestamp
Lear
Flaig+Hommel
Inergy
CIMOS

Johnsons Control
Omen High
Pressure Die
Casting
Schaeffler Group
Atsumitec
Toyota Tsusho
Delphi Corporation
Avtoliv
Goskunoz
Sanoh

Yapp Automotive Parts Co. Ltd

Fuyao Glass Industry
Sangwoo Hitech
Sejong
NVH Korea
Sangwoo Hitech
Sejong
Yokohama
Trelleborg Automotive
Bulten
Mefro Wheels
Johnson Controls

Halla Climate
Control Corp.
Edscha
Mubea

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

: PwC

PwC

18


-
Hyundai
Ford

1 000

Toyota

Nissan
GM

1 000

Volkswagen

Ford-Sollers

PSMA

,

,

1 000

Derways
PwC

GM-Avtovaz
Renault-Nissan-

: PwC

19

ADPlastic (2009)
Autoliv (2012)
Daewon (2010)
Donghee (2010)
Doowon (2010)
Faurecia (2013)
Gestamp Stadco Severstal (2009)
Grupo Antolin (2010)
Halla Climate Control (2013)
Hyundai Hysco (2010)
Hyundai Mobis (2010)
Inergy (2014)
Johnsons Controls (2014)
Lear (2009)
Magna (2010)
Neste (1990)
NVH Korea (2011)
Nokian tyres (2005)
Omen High Pressure Die Casting
(2014)
Sangwoo Hitech (2011)
Sejong(2011)
Shin Young (2008)
Tenneco (2003)
TI Automotive (2008)
Toyota Boshoku (2006)
WPT (2008)

Bekaert (2010)
PPG Industries (2015)
YOKOHAMA (2011)

Bosch Automotive Lightning

(1998)
Magneti Marelli (2005)
: PwC

PwC

Hyundai
Ford

Toyota

AAT (2007)
BASF (2010)
Chemetall (2008)
Faurecia (2005)
Eberspacher (1995)
Knorr-Bremse (1997)
Lear (2005)

Dupont (2006)
Fuchs Petrolub
(2008)

Michelin (2004)
Pilkington (2003)
Prevent (2010)
Valeo Climate Control
(2008)
ZF (2005)

Saargummi (2007)

Inergy (2009)
Orhan (2007)

Visteon (2010)
Raviv ACS (2008)

Nissan

GM

Continental (2008)
Coskunoz (2012)
Federal-Mogul (2008)
Mefro Wheels (2011)
Saint-Gobain Sekurit
(2005)
Siemens VDO

Volkswagen

PSMA

Ford-Sollers

GM-Avtovaz
Renault-Nissan

Fuyao Glass (2011)

Visteon (2010)
Scherdel (2010)
Benteler (2007)
Yapp (2011)
Gestamp-Severstal (2010)
HP Pelzer (2010)
Lear (1998)
Faurecia (2005)
Magna(2008)
ADPlastic (2012)
Bosal (2008)
Continental (2013)
CIE Automotive (2010)

Schaeffler Group (2014)

Robert Bosch (1997)

Asahi (1997)
Lear (1998)

Grupo Antolin (2014)

VALEO (2011)

Leoni (2008)
Trelleborg
Automotive (2011)
Bulten (2011)
Flaig + Hommel

(2009)
Knorr-Bremse (2005)
Magna (2010)
Daido Metal (2007)

Automotive (2005)
Sisecam (2010)
Cummins (2006)
Leoni AG (2008)
Magna (2010)
ZF (2005)

Anvis (2008)
Hayes Lemmerz (2006)
Autoliv (2013)
Atsumitec (2014)
Gestamp (2011)
Edscha (2013)
Johnson Controls (2011)
Mubea (2013)
Halla Climate Control (2013)
Valeo Lightning Systems (2012)
CIMOS (2009)
ADPlastic (1995)
Federal-Mogul (2006)
Inergy (2011)
Mefro Wheels (2011)
Toyota Tsusho (2014)
TPV GROUP (2008)
Delphi Corporation (2014)
Faurecia (2011)
Tenneco Automotive (2003)
Sanoh (2012)
Chemetall (2012)
CIE Automotive (2014)

20


,

BoM*

11%

8%

23%

22%
22%

14%

14%

8%

11%
23%

* - Bill of Material

PwC

22%

22%

: McKinsey

21

,

1 200
1 000
800
600
400

200

: , PwC

PwC

22


:
1) 2) .

2,0

1,9

1,9
1,9

2012

2013

2014

1,7

2,0
1,9

2,2
2,1

2,4
2,2

2,7
2,4

2,8
2,5

2,9
2,5

1,5
1,1

1,2

1,3

1,2

0,6

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

: PwC

PwC

23

 !




sergey.litvinenko@ru.pwc.com

.
, , .
, , , .
, PwC, ,
- (), , , ,
.

2014 PwC. .

PwC