Bloomberg Businessweek


• Federal Reserve rate cuts may not be enough to head off a downturn caused by a crisis of business confidence

This won’t be a run-of-the-mill recession—if in fact the U.S. ends up tumbling into one.

Traditionally, U.S. downturns are homegrown and household-led, usually triggered by a spike in inflation and interest rates and fueled by an unwinding of financial and economic excesses. None of that is arguably at work this time.

Instead, what’s at play is a global geopolitical shock to business sentiment that’s prompting U.S. companies to curb spending amid uncertainties including the U.S.-China trade war and Britain’s messy divorce from the European Union. “The global economy continues to soften, and

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