Trump’s Reelection Is Sitting on a Knife’s Edge
The bitter battle that culminated in last night’s House vote to impeach President Donald Trump foreshadows an even more dramatic struggle to come over his reelection. It’s a contest that will likely feature a historic mobilization of each party’s coalition, and will test widening satisfaction about the economy against widespread unease over Trump’s behavior, values, and respect for the rule of law. Indeed, the 2020 result may hinge on whether that tailwind of economic contentment proves more powerful than the headwind of voters’ doubts about Trump’s behavior—or vice versa.
The starkest message to be gleaned from the impeachment struggle may be that red and blue America have almost completely separated into hostile camps. Polls have shown an almost complete partisan split over impeachment, with 90 percent or more of Democrats supporting it and virtually all Republican partisans in opposition. This continues a pattern of unprecedented unity within the parties—and division between them—that has characterized virtually every moment of Trump’s presidency. The
