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    An Efficient Energy Future: Prospects for Europe and North America
    An Efficient Energy Future: Prospects for Europe and North America
    An Efficient Energy Future: Prospects for Europe and North America
    Ebook580 pages4 hours

    An Efficient Energy Future: Prospects for Europe and North America

    By Sam Stuart

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    About this ebook

    An Efficient Energy Future: Prospects for Europe and North America is a two-part book exploring the energy problems and policies for Europe and North America. The first part deals with energy demand problems and policies of the countries; two possible energy futures based on the scenarios of the MEDEE model; and energy demand projections for specific sectors: buildings, transport, and industry. The second part presents a collection of relevant energy demand indicators for the housing, transport, and industry sectors for all 17 covered countries.
    LanguageEnglish
    PublisherElsevier Science
    Release dateOct 22, 2013
    ISBN9781483161723
    An Efficient Energy Future: Prospects for Europe and North America
    Author

    Sam Stuart

    Dr. Sam Stuart is a physiotherapist and a research Fellow within the Balance Disorders Laboratory, OHSU. His work focuses on vision, cognition and gait in neurological disorders, examining how technology-based interventions influence these factors. He has published extensively in world leading clinical and engineering journals focusing on a broad range of activities such as real-world data analytics, algorithm development for wearable technology and provided expert opinion on technology for concussion assessment for robust player management. He is currently a guest editor for special issues (sports medicine and transcranial direct current stimulation for motor rehabilitation) within Physiological Measurement and Journal of NeuroEngineering and Rehabilitation, respectively.

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      An Efficient Energy Future - Sam Stuart

      study.

      1

      Energy Problems and Policies

      Publisher Summary

      This chapter focuses on energy problems and policies. The problems of energy production and demand are not temporary; they can continue well into the next century and beyond. The world is passing through a transition from exclusive dependence on conventional fossil fuels towards an energy future that can be sustained in the long run. There are strong economic pressures on what kind of transition is possible and how quickly it can be achieved. Policymakers have a wide range of options. These include: structural changes in their economies, different fuel mixes, improved efficiency of energy use, increased indigenous energy production, and application of new and renewable energy sources. To implement these options, it is necessary to overcome the rigidity of current national and international structures and behavioral patterns. All resources and skills should be used more astutely to minimize the side effects of this transition, particularly on the economic growth, employment, and international monetary stability.

      Energy will be a global problem for many years to come. The problems of energy production and demand are not temporary; they will continue well into the next century and beyond. All nations are affected and can act together to build a stable future.

      The world is passing through a transition from exclusive dependence on conventional fossil fuels towards an energy future that can be sustained in the long run. The next twenty years will be crucial for this transition which will take place under severe constraints. World population growth will rise much more sharply than in the past. There are strong economic pressures on what kind of transition is possible and how quickly it can be achieved. In the future, countries will have to adapt to higher energy prices and costs, less oil, growing energy supply risks and environmental constraints.

      Policymakers have a wide range of options. These include structural changes in their economies, different fuel mixes, improved efficiency of energy use, increased indigenous energy production and application of new and renewable energy sources. To implement these options, it will be necessary to overcome the rigidity of current national and international structures and behavioural patterns. In addition, all resources and skills will have to be used more astutely to minimize the side effects of this transition particularly on economic growth, employment and international monetary stability.

      World energy outlook

      Energy has become a dominant influence on world economic development. The very fabric of industrial societies depends, to a major extent, on the ability of ECE countries to adjust their energy priorities and policies. At the same time, the energy needs of developing countries will rise rapidly as their populations grow more rapidly than in other parts of the world. They will only be able to narrow the economic gap separating them from industrialised countries if they can fulfil these energy needs. As nations have become more inter-dependent, their energy problems have become more closely linked.

      There are adequate resources, a rich technological capacity and enough capital to provide for the energy needs of the world for the foreseeable future. A strong commitment of all governments, producers and consumers alike, to actively engage in long-term energy co-operation is essential.

      The most pressing energy supply problem is oil. World petroleum supplies will continue to be constrained during the next twenty years. Temporary shortages will arise unless oil demand management policies are successful. Highest priority should be given to reduction of oil demand followed by oil exploration and production, enhanced recovery from existing wells, and to more efficient use of conventional oil resources.

      There have been important changes in the control of oil supplies. In the 1970s, producing countries took control over from major companies in the international market. Also, the spot-market has become far more important in determining prices. The precarious balance in the international market does not allow stable oil prices.

      The doubling of oil prices in 1979–1980 had important repercussions. Energy consumption had declined in several industrialised countries. Oil surpluses have accumulated in the international market and prices have stabilised. But it would certainly be too optimistic to think that long-term trends have been reversed and that oil supplies will continue to exceed demand in the foreseeable future.

      Present oil surpluses could continue during the next few years in Saudi Arabia and other producers in the Persian Gulf maintain relatively high production levels. Some fuel substitution and energy savings have been achieved already, but heavy industry and transportation could have sharply rising energy needs when activity in industrial countries picks up. Without new initiatives, this increased demand could offset recent progress towards conservation and renew pressures on the oil market.

      During the 1970s, oil price increases and the economic recession caused severe balance-of-payment problems for importing countries. Industrialised nations have been able to compensate to some extent by increasing the value of their exports. They have benefited from the growing purchasing power of the oil-exporting countries and, for the most part, have maintained balanced external accounts.

      This has not been the case for developing countries, however. Balance-of-payment difficulties have forced them to reduce their development expectations. This has caused enormous strains on the global financial and monetary systems.

      The broad macro-economic view of this study is for a moderate but feasible world economic growth with a reasonably balanced energy supply and demand forecast for the next twenty years. The global economy is anticipated to grow more slowly than in the past, but there is growth nonetheless and material standards are expected to rise. This view depends on lower inflation and unemployment and on improved productivity. It is based on structural changes in some industrialised countries towards greater growth in sectors with low energy needs such as services. This would allow developing countries to export more manufactured goods, one of several shifts in global trade. The economic view also calls for strong energy conservation measures especially in Europe.

      It is technically possible for world oil supplies to increase at an average annual rate of 1.7 per cent, reaching 3700 million tons by 1990 from 3150 million tons in 1980. New oil fields in developing countries are expected to make an important contribution. There would be enough oil on the world market if strong conservation measures and substitution policies in industrial countries are successful.

      Coal is also foreseen to be a major source of energy supply growth.* It is expected to take up a large share of new energy demand and is also projected to replace oil and gas in the major industrial and electric utility markets. During the 1980s coal production might increase from the current level of 2850 million tons of coal equivalent (tce) to approximately 4000 million tce in 1990 depending on growth of demand. The largest increases would be in the United States and in the centrally planned economies of Europe and Asia. Coal trade would develop very rapidly especially in Western Europe.

      Conventional natural gas is expected to keep pace with total energy use, keeping its share of world energy supply at about 18 per cent. Most of the increase in consumption will be in the USSR and in Western Europe. There is an urgent need in oil-producing countries to stop flaring associated natural gas, expand internal gas markets and to increase exports of LPG and LNG. World gas reserves are large enough for even greater consumption than forecast in this study but a more optimistic gas outlook is unlikely at least for the 1980s for technical reasons. Expensive gas transport and distribution systems are needed to bring gas to major consumption centres. The lead times for these projects would place their completion near the end of this decade at the earliest.

      Nuclear energy is expected to expand three or four times over the next ten years alone. For some industrialised countries, nuclear energy is assumed to be the most economic source of base-load electricity. But environmental and safety concerns could retard the full economic potential of nuclear power. In addition, the electric grid system in developing countries are too small to accommodate the rapid introduction of nuclear power plants at least during the next ten to fifteen years.

      New hydro-power plants are expected to make a significant contribution in Latin America and Africa. In Europe, most potential hydro-power sources have already been tapped. Other renewable energy sources are anticipated to develop during the study period. Solar, geothermal, wind, wave and tidal power will certainly make a growing contribution, but it is expected to be small.

      The pattern of energy consumption in the ECE countries will undoubtedly have a profound effect on the global energy and economic future. Greater energy efficiency could alter global trade levels and development strategies. It could ease grinding shortages during the next few years while new supplies are being developed and brought into use. In the longer term, energy conservation can slow down and possibly even level off energy demand growth in many ECE countries. Dependence on imported fuels could be reduced substantially.

      The ECE region dominates global economic and energy developments. In 1978, Europe and North America produced 68 per cent of world economic output and consumed 78 per cent of the world’s energy. Countries of the region have over two-thirds of the world’s recoverable coal reserves, one-half of gas, but only one-fifth of oil. They take over 70 per cent of world oil consumption each year, but account for only 40 per cent of production.

      Population growth has had a major impact on the economics of industrial nations in the past. Steadily growing populations have provided an increasing labour force and consumer market which fed much of the post-war expansion of the last three decades. Population trends already under way that began in the 1950s will clearly affect economic developments to the end of the century.

      ECE countries have a declining share of world population as population growth falls in the region and rises very sharply in the rest of the world. In 1950, there were 759 million people in Europe and North America which increased to 1042 million by 1980. Projections for 1990 are 1121 million persons and 1191 million by the year 2000. ECE countries had 30 per cent of world population in 1950 but this will drop to 19 per cent during the next twenty years.

      The declining share of world population has been caused mainly by slower growth in ECE countries beginning in the 1960s. Annual growth dropped below 1 per centrin 1960 and at the end of the century will decline to a yearly average of 0.6 per cent. This trend will strongly influence energy consumption. Energy demand tends to slow down because of saturation effects that set in when a country’s population growth begins to fall and ownership of energy-using equipment reaches high levels.

      Declining population growth will cause other problems especially for the labour force. During the 1980s, past trends will take effect and the labour supply will not expand as it has in the past. This will certainly affect future economic activity and could even cause constraints.

      Europe and North America’s share of world energy supplies has also been declining and will continue to do so. This applies particularly to oil. On the other hand, energy demand is expected to rise more slowly in ECE countries whereas it will rise very quickly in the rest of the world. These are some of the general conclusions that can be drawn from the energy forecasts of ECE governments reviewed in a world setting.* In 1965, ECE countries accounted for 78 per cent of world energy consumption and 72 per cent of oil use; this has been reduced slightly to 72 per cent world energy consumption and 71 per cent of oil at present. By 1990, however, these figures are expected to decline to 66 per cent of global energy consumption and 61 per cent oil total oil.

      ECE governments expect energy production to grow much more slowly than demand. On a world level, they produced 67 per cent of total primary energy in 1965 (and 48 per cent of oil). By 1980, the region’s energy production only made up 59 per cent of the world total (and 42 per cent of oil). These figures are expected to decline to 55 per cent of global production (and only 36 per cent of oil) by 1990.

      In contrast, total energy demand would grow by 25 per cent to 1990 and oil demand by 3 per cent. Since domestic energy production would not increase as quickly, ECE countries expect to remain heavily dependent on imported oil. In Western Europe, for example, 81 per cent of oil needs would be imported in 1990. The figure would be even higher for Eastern Europe (excluding the USSR) at 85 per cent while North America would need to import about 41 per cent of its oil consumption. Western Europe would also depend on imports for 32 per cent of coal and 43 per cent of gas by 1990. Eastern Europe (excluding the USSR) would import 50 per cent of gas consumption. The USSR will be an increasingly important energy supplier to Western Europe as gas exports rise despite declining oil exports.

      The ECE region as a whole could be autonomous for coal, gas and electricity provided there was greater energy trade within the region. But oil imports would continue to be a problem. Governments anticipate imports rising by 7 per cent for the region by 1990 which would put even greater pressure on the international oil market. A reduction of oil imports could ease this pressure, improve the balance-of-payment positions of Europe and North America and give developing countries a brighter outlook for the

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