Rating: 0 out of 5 stars
0 ratings
Ebook241 pages6 hours
Price Expectations in Rising Inflation
By I. Visco
Rating: 0 out of 5 stars
()
About this ebook
It is claimed in this book that expectations should not necessarily be treated as unobservable variables and that there is much to be learned from survey data. A unique data set is examined, the output of surveys conducted twice a year since 1952, among informed Italian businessmen and economic experts. The predictive accuracy, rationality and determinants of inflation expectations are investigated, following an extensive analysis of measurement issues.
The estimate of inflation expectations are evaluated for both wholesale and consumer price changes, comparing them with those held by respondents to other surveys for different countries and with the forecasts generated by alternative predictors of the inflation process. The expectations considered in the study are shown to be remarkably accurate, anticipating all major price changes, even if during the years of high and rising inflation which have followed the first oil crisis they appear to underestimate on a number of occasions the inflation rates actually experienced, as the alternative predictors also do.
An accurate testing of the rational expectations hypothesis is conducted, rejecting it over the entire sample period but not for the period of mild, but variable inflation which preceded the first oil crises.
It is shown that a mixed adaptive-regressive model, with both error-learning and return-to-normality components adapts very well to the data considered in this study and that inflation expectations are also influenced by an uncertainty component which affects the adaptive coefficient. Furthermore, regression towards normality is slowed down when industrial capacity is utilized above normal, and vice-versa. Many other issues such as the dispersion of individual answers, the problems of aggregation and measurement error are also considered and an extensive bibliography of other works where use is made of direct information on expectations, is included.
The estimate of inflation expectations are evaluated for both wholesale and consumer price changes, comparing them with those held by respondents to other surveys for different countries and with the forecasts generated by alternative predictors of the inflation process. The expectations considered in the study are shown to be remarkably accurate, anticipating all major price changes, even if during the years of high and rising inflation which have followed the first oil crisis they appear to underestimate on a number of occasions the inflation rates actually experienced, as the alternative predictors also do.
An accurate testing of the rational expectations hypothesis is conducted, rejecting it over the entire sample period but not for the period of mild, but variable inflation which preceded the first oil crises.
It is shown that a mixed adaptive-regressive model, with both error-learning and return-to-normality components adapts very well to the data considered in this study and that inflation expectations are also influenced by an uncertainty component which affects the adaptive coefficient. Furthermore, regression towards normality is slowed down when industrial capacity is utilized above normal, and vice-versa. Many other issues such as the dispersion of individual answers, the problems of aggregation and measurement error are also considered and an extensive bibliography of other works where use is made of direct information on expectations, is included.
Related to Price Expectations in Rising Inflation
Titles in the series (26)
Social Choice and Welfare Filtering and Control of Macroeconomic Systems: A Control System Incorporating the Kalman Filter for the Indian Economy Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsProduction Economics: A Dual Approach to Theory and Applications: Applications of the Theory of Production Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5The Fix-Point Approach to Interdependent Systems Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsMacroeconomic Impacts of Energy Shocks Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsConsumer Durable Choice and the Demand for Electricity Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsPrice Expectations in Rising Inflation Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsGlobal International Economic Models: Selected Papers from an IIASA Conference Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsEssays in the Economics of Exhaustible Resources Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsThe Perception of Poverty Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsStabilization Policy in France and the Federal Republic of Germany Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsMacroeconomic Modelling Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsProduction, Multi-Sectoral Growth and Planning: Essays in Memory of Leif Johansen Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsRivalrous Consonance: A Theory of General Oligopolistic Equilibrium Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsPlans and Disequilibria in Centrally Planned Economies: Empirical Investigations for Poland Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsMacroeconomic Medium-Term Models in the Nordic Countries Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsChallenges for Macroeconomic Modelling Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsThe Agro-Technological System towards 2000: A European Perspective Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsChanging Trade Patterns in Manufactured Goods: An Econometric Investigation Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsThe Political Economy of Social Security Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsEconomic Shocks and Structural Adjustments: Turkey after 1973 Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsA Basic Needs Policy Model: A General Equilibrium Analysis with Special Reference to Ecuador Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsDynamic Policy Games in Economics Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsContingent Valuation: A Critical Assessment Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsInternational Comparisons of Prices, Output and Productivity Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsFundamentals of Ocean Renewable Energy: Generating Electricity from the Sea Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratings
Related ebooks
Production Economics: A Dual Approach to Theory and Applications: Applications of the Theory of Production Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5Economic Shocks and Structural Adjustments: Turkey after 1973 Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsThe Inflation-Targeting Debate Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsMacroeconomic Impacts of Energy Shocks Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsStabilization Policy in France and the Federal Republic of Germany Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsMacroeconomic Modelling Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsThe Agro-Technological System towards 2000: A European Perspective Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsPlans and Disequilibria in Centrally Planned Economies: Empirical Investigations for Poland Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsCodes of Finance: Engineering Derivatives in a Global Bank Rating: 2 out of 5 stars2/5Restoring the Innovative Edge: Driving the Evolution of Science and Technology Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsThe Rise of Neoliberalism and Institutional Analysis Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsFrom Crisis to Confidence: Macroeconomics after the Crash Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Europe and the Euro Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsChanging Trade Patterns in Manufactured Goods: An Econometric Investigation Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsSocial Welfare Functions and Development: Measurement and Policy Applications Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsAgricultural Policy Formation in the European Community: The Birth of Milk Quotas and CAP Reform Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsGlobal International Economic Models: Selected Papers from an IIASA Conference Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsEconomics of Arms Reduction and the Peace Process: Contributions from Peace Economics and Peace Science Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsRivalrous Consonance: A Theory of General Oligopolistic Equilibrium Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsGlobal Imbalances, Financial Crises, and Central Bank Policies Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsInternational Dimensions of Monetary Policy Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsRedistributive Effects of Government Programmes: The Chilean Case Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsSocial Security Programs and Retirement around the World: Fiscal Implications of Reform Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsBayesian Theory Rating: 1 out of 5 stars1/5Public Communication and Behavior: Volume 1 Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsThe Political Economy of Social Security Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsThe Politics of Inflation: A Comparative Analysis Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsThe Political Economy of Development: The World Bank, Neoliberalism and Development Research Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsChallenges for Macroeconomic Modelling Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsStructural Economics: Measuring Change in Technology, Lifestyles, and the Environment Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratings
Economics For You
Predictably Irrational, Revised and Expanded Edition: The Hidden Forces That Shape Our Decisions Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The Richest Man in Babylon: The most inspiring book on wealth ever written Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5Divergent Mind: Thriving in a World That Wasn't Designed for You Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5A History of Central Banking and the Enslavement of Mankind Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5Capital in the Twenty-First Century Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Confessions of an Economic Hit Man, 3rd Edition Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5Nickel and Dimed: On (Not) Getting By in America Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The Intelligent Investor, Rev. Ed: The Definitive Book on Value Investing Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Wise as Fu*k: Simple Truths to Guide You Through the Sh*tstorms of Life Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Sex Trafficking: Inside the Business of Modern Slavery Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Economics 101: From Consumer Behavior to Competitive Markets--Everything You Need to Know About Economics Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Capitalism and Freedom Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Doughnut Economics: Seven Ways to Think Like a 21st-Century Economist Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Economix: How and Why Our Economy Works (and Doesn't Work), in Words and Pictures Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Chip War: The Fight for the World's Most Critical Technology Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Payback: Debt and the Shadow Side of Wealth Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsDisrupting Sacred Cows: Navigating and Profiting in the New Economy Rating: 0 out of 5 stars0 ratingsMen without Work: Post-Pandemic Edition (2022) Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5The Lords of Easy Money: How the Federal Reserve Broke the American Economy Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The Affluent Society Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5Bad Samaritans: The Myth of Free Trade and the Secret History of Capitalism Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5How to Be Everything: A Guide for Those Who (Still) Don't Know What They Want to Be When They Grow Up Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The Myth of Capitalism: Monopolies and the Death of Competition Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The Price of Time: The Real Story of Interest Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5The Physics of Wall Street: A Brief History of Predicting the Unpredictable Rating: 4 out of 5 stars4/5The Two-Parent Privilege: How Americans Stopped Getting Married and Started Falling Behind Rating: 5 out of 5 stars5/5The Hard Truth About Soft Skills: Soft Skills for Succeeding in a Hard Wor Rating: 3 out of 5 stars3/5
Related podcast episodes
Professor Ilan Noy - Economics of Disasters and Climate Change 0% found this document usefulCoronavirus Blew Up Your Forecast – Now What? 0% found this document usefulEpisode 17: Kevin Bardosh On Harms From Lockdowns 0% found this document usefulEconomics in One Podcast with Ben Prentice 0% found this document usefulS1E29: Interview with Noam Angrist, Co-founder and Director of Youth Impact 0% found this document usefulCarlo D'Ippoliti, "Democratizing the Economics Debate: Pluralism and Research Evaluation" (Routledge, 2020) 0% found this document usefulNarrative Economics [Audio] 0% found this document usefulS1 Ep24: The changing face of development: The gap between macroeconomic policy and research 0% found this document usefulWill the Massive Policy Response Halt the Global Economic Freefall? 0% found this document useful
Related articles
The Wrong Kind Of Groupthink The Critic MagazineArticle
The Wrong Kind Of Groupthink
Feb 29, 2024
ECONOMISTS IN THE mass — as a profession, no less — have not covered themselves in glory in the early 2020s. Like everyone, they were caught off guard by Covid, but they blundered in their reaction to it. With few exceptions, they forecast that Covid
3 min readGood Old Days? Index Charts National Happiness Since 1820 FuturityArticle
Good Old Days? Index Charts National Happiness Since 1820
Oct 15, 2019
2 min readWhich Policies Create Economic Growth? Finweek - EnglishArticle
Which Policies Create Economic Growth?
Nov 1, 2019
3 min readEditor’s Letter Frontiers of ScienceArticle
Editor’s Letter
Apr 21, 2020
This is the first time I have linked the “Director’s Letter” to the theme of the monograph. It was necessary. This issue began to take shape almost two months ago, at the end of January. At that time, China was facing an epidemic caused by a new coro
6 min readGDP As A Measure Is Not The Be All And End All Sunday IndependentArticle
GDP As A Measure Is Not The Be All And End All
Mar 5, 2023
3 min readGDP As A Measure Is Not The Be All And End All Sunday TribuneArticle
GDP As A Measure Is Not The Be All And End All
Mar 5, 2023
3 min readGDP As A Measure Is Not The Be All And End All Isolezwe nGesonto SundayArticle
GDP As A Measure Is Not The Be All And End All
Mar 5, 2023
3 min readReferences AQ: Australian QuarterlyArticle
References
Dec 31, 2017
1 Benjamin J. Cohen, “Electronic Money: New Day or False Dawn?,” Review of International Political Economy 8, no. 2 (2001): 197–225. 2 Manuel Castells, “Informationalism, Networks, and the Network Society: A Theoretical Blueprint” in I M. Castells: T
5 min readCommentary: Economics Isn't Unreliable, We Are Los Angeles TimesArticle
Commentary: Economics Isn't Unreliable, We Are
Nov 16, 2017
3 min readWorld-wide Institutional Dispensation PRIVATE GAME WILDLIFE RANCHINGArticle
World-wide Institutional Dispensation
Oct 14, 2021
8 min readMedical Marvels NewsweekArticle
Medical Marvels
Jun 16, 2023
2 min readMedical Marvels Newsweek InternationalArticle
Medical Marvels
Jun 16, 2023
2 min readChampioning The Global Cause Beijing ReviewArticle
Championing The Global Cause
Jul 13, 2023
6 min readFrom The Editor... MoneyWeekArticle
From The Editor...
Jun 30, 2023
2 min readAt COP24, Climate Consensus Reigns. But What Does That Really Mean? The Christian Science MonitorArticle
At COP24, Climate Consensus Reigns. But What Does That Really Mean?
Dec 4, 2018
For some people, acceptance of climate change comes down to belief. But for the majority of the nations gathering for COP24, it is a matter of scientific consensus, the product of a cumulative and rigorous body of research.
6 min readHow Japan Nailed The Science Behind Coronavirus Foreign Policy MagazineArticle
How Japan Nailed The Science Behind Coronavirus
Apr 20, 2021
6 min readMarch Of The Oligarchy New Zealand ListenerArticle
March Of The Oligarchy
Aug 20, 2023
9 min readWarrior against Poverty India TodayArticle
Warrior against Poverty
Dec 27, 2019
Long before economist Abhijit Banerjee won the 2019 Nobel Prize in Economics jointly with his wife, French-American economist Esther Duflo, and American Michael Kremer, 'for their experimental approach to alleviating global poverty', their work was c
1 min readA Q&A With Esther Duflo, Who Wins Nobel Prize Today NPRArticle
A Q&A With Esther Duflo, Who Wins Nobel Prize Today
Dec 10, 2019
5 min readPreparing for covid-29 Rotman ManagementArticle
Preparing for covid-29
Sep 1, 2021
12 min readYou May Be Worrying About the Economy Too Much KiplingerArticle
You May Be Worrying About the Economy Too Much
May 25, 2022
War in Ukraine. Outsized inflation. Supply chain disruptions. A lingering pandemic. Today’s global upheavals all contribute to a sense of general economic anxiety among investors and, more broadly, the American public. The University of Michigan’s Co
2 min readEconomics Still Has A Diversity Problem NPRArticle
Economics Still Has A Diversity Problem
Jan 7, 2020
4 min readReferences AQ: Australian QuarterlyArticle
References
Mar 29, 2022
4 min readBe A Fool The European Business ReviewArticle
Be A Fool
May 31, 2020
11 min readMoney-printing Caused Muddle And Mess MoneyWeekArticle
Money-printing Caused Muddle And Mess
Mar 28, 2024
9 min readWhy The Happiest Countries Are Not Always The Wealthiest Ones The Christian Science MonitorArticle
Why The Happiest Countries Are Not Always The Wealthiest Ones
Jun 14, 2018
Finland ranked No. 1 in the 2018 World Happiness Report for its citizens' healthy work-life balance and trust in its national systems. Increasingly, in almost every facet of society – from policymakers to businesses to schools – more people are looki
3 min readFuture Insight-FROM A 350TH BIRTHDAY TO THE START OF A GLOBAL MOVEMENT The European Business ReviewArticle
Future Insight-FROM A 350TH BIRTHDAY TO THE START OF A GLOBAL MOVEMENT
Apr 3, 2019
7 min readWhy GDP Is a Faulty Measure of Success TIMEArticle
Why GDP Is a Faulty Measure of Success
Feb 5, 2018
SHORTLY BEFORE BRITISH VOTERS TOOK WHAT most economists regarded as the suicidal decision to leave the E.U., Anand Menon, a professor of European politics at King’s College London, was in the northern city of Newcastle. A long way from prosperous Lon
3 min readThe U.S. Has No Plan to Prevent the Next Pandemic The AtlanticArticle
The U.S. Has No Plan to Prevent the Next Pandemic
Jul 25, 2022
4 min readPaola Antonelli and Alice Rawsthorn WallpaperArticle
Paola Antonelli and Alice Rawsthorn
Sep 17, 2020
6 min read
Reviews for Price Expectations in Rising Inflation
Rating: 0 out of 5 stars
0 ratings
0 ratings0 reviews
Book preview
Price Expectations in Rising Inflation - I. Visco
Enjoying the preview?
Page 1 of 1