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    Summary and Analysis of The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—but Some Don't: Based on the Book by Nate Silver
    Summary and Analysis of The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—but Some Don't: Based on the Book by Nate Silver
    Summary and Analysis of The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—but Some Don't: Based on the Book by Nate Silver
    Ebook54 pages43 minutes

    Summary and Analysis of The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—but Some Don't: Based on the Book by Nate Silver

    By Worth Books

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    About this ebook

    So much to read, so little time? This brief overview of The Signal and the Noise tells you what you need to know—before or after you read Nate Silver’s book.

    Crafted and edited with care, Worth Books set the standard for quality and give you the tools you need to be a well-informed reader.

    This short summary and analysis of The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver includes:
     
    • Historical context
    • Chapter-by-chapter summaries
    • Important quotes
    • Fascinating trivia
    • Glossary of terms
    • Supporting material to enhance your understanding of the original work
     
    About The Signal and the Noise by Nate Silver:
     
    Drawing on groundbreaking research, The Signal and the Noise, written by the founder and editor-in-chief of FiveThirtyEight.com, examines how data has been used in prediction and forecasting, and how to find the true signals—the points that indicate that something will happen—amidst noisy and distracting data.
     
    Addressing different fields of forecasting and predictions—from politics to earthquakes to poker—Silver explores the reasons why some things are easier to forecast, like the weather, while others are so difficult, such as terrorism.
     
    From one of the country’s smartest thinkers. The Signal and the Noise provides vital insights into how to think about probability and predictions on the economy, climate change, sports, and other subjects that impact our lives.
     
    The summary and analysis in this ebook are intended to complement your reading experience and bring you closer to a great work of nonfiction.
    LanguageEnglish
    PublisherOpen Road Integrated Media
    Release dateJan 10, 2017
    ISBN9781504043694
    Summary and Analysis of The Signal and the Noise: Why So Many Predictions Fail—but Some Don't: Based on the Book by Nate Silver
    Author

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      Summary and Analysis of The Signal and the Noise - Worth Books

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      Summary and Analysis of

      The Signal and the Noise

      Why So Many Predictions Fail—but Some Don’t

      Based on the Book by Nate Silver

      Logo1

      The summary and analysis in this ebook are meant to complement your reading experience and bring you closer to a great work of nonfiction. This ebook is not intended as a substitute for the work that it summarizes and analyzes, and it is not authorized, approved, licensed, or endorsed by the work’s author or publisher. Worth Books makes no representations or warranties with respect to the accuracy or completeness of the contents of this ebook.

      Contents

      Context

      Overview

      Summary

      Direct Quotes and Analysis

      Trivia

      What’s That Word?

      Critical Response

      About Nate Silver

      For Your Information

      Bibliography

      Copyright

      Context

      In 2008, statistician and baseball analyst Nate Silver became a national figure when he correctly predicted forty-nine out of fifty states in the US presidential election on his website, FiveThirtyEight. By the time his sought-after first book, The Signal and the Noise, was published in September 2012, Silver was writing for the New York Times and had become the go-to guru of political forecasting in the United States. He has since relaunched FiveThirtyEight as a stand-alone website, owned by ESPN, that covers politics, sports, culture, and more.

      As many became interested in the possibilities of big data and books that discussed the application of data to business, such as Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game by Michael Lewis, Silver established himself as one of the foremost experts behind official numbers and polling predictions.

      One of the most consistent themes of Silver’s approach to forecasting has been a move away from the idea of punditry getting it right or wrong in predicting elections or other events. In this probability-based approach to forecasting, he runs thousands of possible scenarios through a model that determines how often a result is likely to happen.

      In the final predictions for the 2016 presidential general election, Silver’s model showed roughly a 70 percent likelihood of Hillary Clinton winning the election with Donald Trump winning the other 30 percent. So while the chances were higher that Clinton would win, it was not statistically impossible—nor even very unlikely—that Trump would succeed.

      Overview

      The Signal and the Noise is Nate Silver’s take on how data has been used in a variety of fields and how people in the era of big data should approach forecasting. In each chapter, Silver selects a different field—from politics to earthquakes to poker—and analyzes

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