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    Food Outlook: Biannual Report on Global Food Markets: November 2019
    Food Outlook: Biannual Report on Global Food Markets: November 2019
    Food Outlook: Biannual Report on Global Food Markets: November 2019
    Ebook157 pages46 minutes

    Food Outlook: Biannual Report on Global Food Markets: November 2019

    By Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

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    About this ebook

    Food Outlook is published by the Trade and Markets Division of FAO under Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS). It is a biannual publication focusing on developments affecting global food and feed markets. Each report provides comprehensive assessments and short term forecasts for production, utilization, trade, stocks and prices on a commodity by commodity basis and includes feature articles on topical issues. Food Outlook maintains a close synergy with another major GIEWS publication, Crop Prospects and Food Situation, especially with regard to the coverage of cereals.

    LanguageEnglish
    PublisherFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations
    Release dateNov 25, 2019
    ISBN9789251319451
    Food Outlook: Biannual Report on Global Food Markets: November 2019
    Author

    Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

    An intergovernmental organization, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has 194 Member Nations, two associate members and one member organization, the European Union. Its employees come from various cultural backgrounds and are experts in the multiple fields of activity FAO engages in. FAO’s staff capacity allows it to support improved governance inter alia, generate, develop and adapt existing tools and guidelines and provide targeted governance support as a resource to country and regional level FAO offices. Headquartered in Rome, Italy, FAO is present in over 130 countries.Founded in 1945, the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) leads international efforts to defeat hunger. Serving both developed and developing countries, FAO provides a neutral forum where all nations meet as equals to negotiate agreements and debate policy. The Organization publishes authoritative publications on agriculture, fisheries, forestry and nutrition.

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      Book preview

      Food Outlook - Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations

      WHEAT

      Global wheat supply is forecast to recover in 2019/20, as reflected in persistent low international prices since the start of this year. At around 765.0 million tonnes, the latest FAO forecast for world wheat production in 2019 confirms the earlier projection of a strong rebound from 2018 to a new record high. An expected production recovery in the EU constitutes the bulk of the year-on-year increase in world production. However, much bigger harvests than last year are also foreseen in other top producing countries, including the Russian Federation, Ukraine and the United States.

      Total wheat utilization in 2019/20 is set to reach 759.5 million tonnes, 1.5 percent higher than in 2018/19. Total food use of wheat is forecast to approach 518 million tonnes, up 1.1 percent and rising in close tandem with world population growth. However, large supplies and competitive prices are likely to drive up feed use of wheat by 2.8 percent, a faster rate than was projected earlier, while industrial use is also anticipated to register strong growth.

      Based on the latest production and utilization forecasts for 2019/20, global wheat inventories could climb to almost 275 million tonnes, the second highest level on record. If realized, stocks would be up 1.9 percent from their opening levels. However, most of the projected accumulation of world wheat stocks is expected to occur in China, where carryovers could increase by 8 percent to 129.0 million tonnes. While inventories in the EU and India are also expected to expand, notable declines are anticipated in Australia, the Russian Federation, Pakistan, Morocco and Turkey.

      At around 172 million tonnes, the forecast for global wheat trade in 2019/20 (July/June) has been trimmed slightly in recent months, but still up from the 2018/19 reduced level. Larger wheat imports by drought-affected Morocco and higher purchases by several countries in Asia account for most of the forecast expansion in world trade. On the export side, while the Russian Federation is seen maintaining its position as the world’s largest wheat exporter, its overall wheat sales in 2019/20 could fall short of the previous season, in view of stiffer competition from other major exporters.

      For additional analyses and updates, see:

      FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief

      http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation

      Crop Prospects and Food Situation

      http://www.fao.org/giews/reports/crop-prospects

      AMIS Market Monitor

      http://www.amis-outlook.org/amis-monitoring

      Contact:

      Erin.Collier@fao.org

      COARSE GRAINS

      The global market of coarse grains in 2019/20 is set to tighten for a second consecutive season, despite an anticipated production recovery from the 2018 slump. Total production of coarse grains is forecast to reach at least 1 425 million tonnes in 2019, the second highest level on record, mostly underpinned by an increase in barley production (of 13.4 million tonnes). With record level maize production in Argentina and Brazil offsetting a poor harvest in the United States, global maize production is also set to increase, but only marginally (5 million tonnes).

      Coarse grain total utilization in 2019/20 is expected to remain close to the 2018/19 level as strong growth in barley utilization, increasing by almost 5 percent from 2018/19, is likely to be countered by declining sorghum consumption, while maize use is expected to remain stable. For the first time in almost a decade, a contraction in feed use of coarse grains, especially maize, is likely in 2019/20. This is mostly because of a sharp anticipated drop in the feed use of maize in the United States from a record high level in 2018/19. In addition, maize use for feed is expected to be negatively influenced in several Asian countries, especially China because of the devastating impact of the African Swine Fever (ASF) on pig herds.

      With consumption outweighing overall supplies for a second consecutive season, coarse grain inventories are forecast to fall again in 2019/20 (by 4 percent). China’s continued destocking, and a significant stock drawdown in the United States following a poor harvest, may result in a 25 million tonne contraction in global maize stocks. Reflecting this decline, the world coarse grains stocks-to-use and major exporters’ stocks-to-disappearance (defined as domestic consumption plus exports) ratios will decrease.

      World trade in coarse grains in 2019/20 (July/June) is forecast to drop from the 2018/19

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