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2011

, 2012
BEROC Policy Paper Series, PP no.09

2011
. -
.
2011 . 2011. 15%
2010 .
, 2011 .
, I 2011 (10%
). VI ,
(10% ) 30%.
- 16.7% (
2011 ).

2011 .
. 3
011 2011 8 470 2011.
. 2011 10% 11%
, 1%.
. 2011 (
) 108%.
, ,
.
:
(Krugman and Taylor, 1978).
2011 ,
, . -
2011., 14% 2011.
: .
.
2011. 29%.
- 2011.,
22% , .

105%
100%

104%

100%

101%

99%

99%

95%

95%

95%

90%

94%

93%
93%

88%
86%

85%
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

Nov

Dec

1. 2011 .
2011 = 100%.


.
. ,
.
100%

98%

100%

96%

90%

92%

85%
82%

82%

80%

87%
80%
76%

70%
Jan

Feb

Mar

Apr

May

Jun

Jul

Aug

Sep

Oct

78%

71%
Nov

Dec

2. 2011 .
2011 = 100%.
-
,
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1 2012 51% 1 2011 .
,
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.


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106.8%.
.
107.9%, - 105.1%.

5 106.6%.
.

>120%

5.4

115%-120%

11.9

110%-115%

19.2

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23.7

100%-105%

17.6

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12.6

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5.8

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3.8
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3:

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2010 31 2011 ,
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109.0
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2011q1

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2011q3

2011q4

5: 2010-2011 .

, . .
2009 . : 2010 2011 .
5, 2010-2011
2010 . 2011
2010 , 2010 .

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6: , 1-4 2011
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d2
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d3

d4

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d6

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d10

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20%
10%
0%
-10%

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

-20%
-30%
-40%

8: , IV 2011 I 2011;
( ) ( ) 2011 .
: 2011.
?

2011 . 8
2011
2011 . , 2011
(10% ) .
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1998 (Lokshin and Ravallion, 2000).
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2011 . ,
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11.6%.
(San, Lofgren,
Robinson, 2000), (Yemelyanau, 2009).
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2011 ,
9%.

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.

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3
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9: , 1-4 2011
2010 .
:

2011 2011
(-11.7% -10.9% ).

. .
10.0%
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-30.0%

d1

d2
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d3

d4

d5

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d6

d7

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d8

d9

d10

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10: , IV 2011 I 2011;


2011 . :
2011.

.
. 15% 20%
(Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2011). 11
(
- ). -
2011 ,
2005 . ,
.
, 2012 , , ,
.

38.0%
36.0%
34.0%
32.0%
30.0%
28.0%
26.0%
24.0%
22.0%
20.0%

35.4%

34.3%

32.8%

2005

2006

31.2%

2007

30.8%

2008

29.2%

28.3%

2009

2010

29.7%

31.2%

32.2%

I II
III
IV
2011
2011
2011
2011

11.

. :

. (
, )
4.7% 2011 10.1% 2011 . ,
.
,
? 14.75%
2011 22.08% 2011 .
24.94

25

22.08

20.57

20
15

14.75

10
5

10.7

10.3
4.7

8.9

6.7

7.8

II

III

10.1

10.3

0
I

IV

12. , 2011
: ( ) ( )

- , , 2011
. , ,
24.8% 2011 23.9% 2011 .


:
- 10.9% ( 2011
2011 ).

- 11.7%, ,
.
- , , ,
, , .
-
.
- 16.7% (
2011 ).
,
, .
:
- , ,
.

.
- ,
.
- ,
.

(2012). - ,
, .
., ., . (2011).
- ,
, BEROC Policy Paper No7
Bureau of Labor Statistics (2011), How do U.S. expenditures compare with those of other countries?, Focus
on Prices and Spending, Volume 2, Number 16
Krugman, P., Taylor, L. (1978). Contractionary effects of devaluation. Journal of International Economics 8:
445-456.
Lay, J., Thiele, R., Wiebelt, M.2004. Pro-poor Growth in Bolivia: Accounting for External Shocks and Policy
Reforms. Kiel Working Papers 1231, Kiel Institute for the World Economy.
Lokshin, M. and Ravallion, M. (2000), Welfare Impacts of the 1998 Financial Crisis in Russia and the
Response of the Public Safety Net. Economics of Transition, 8: 269295. doi: 10.1111/1468-0351.00045
San, N. N., Lofgren, H., Robinson, S. (2000). Structural adjustment, agriculture, and deforestation in the
Sumatra regional economy. TMD discussion papers 52, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
Yemelyanau, M. (2009). Second agriculture in Belarus and Ukraine: subsistence or leisure? BEROC Working
Paper 009.

1. , IV I 2011 .
: 2011 .

3
d1
d2
d3
d4
d5
d6
d7
d8
d9
d10
-

,

,

-10.9%
-17.2%

-7.2%
-17.3%

-11.7%
-17.4%

16.7%
-4.4%
-7.1%
-8.5%
-10.7%
-14.6%
-13.1%
-16.8%
-20.5%
-29.7%

45.9%
2.3%
-4.2%
-3.8%
-10.1%
-8.0%
-14.9%
-18.7%
-20.5%
-20.3%

4.6%
-4.8%
-7.1%
-11.5%
-10.7%
-13.4%
-13.4%
-16.1%
-19.9%
-24.9%

-11.8%

-11.8%

-12.8%

-2.8%

12.5%

-17.2%

6.4%

22.3%

-4.9%

47.7%

-14.7%

-16.7%
-7.2%
4.0%
-2.6%
-5.6%

-13.5%
-11.7%
-4.7%
-4.9%
-14.3%

-19.5%
-14.7%
-13.6%
-8.7%
-8.9%
-13.5%
-12.4%

-14.8%
-14.4%
-13.2%
-10.6%
-11.3%
-13.4%
-9.7%

-16.7%
-16.1%
-6.0%

-13.5%
-13.3%
-8.3%

-0.5%

-5.2%


2011
4
,
3

-21.4%
-10.0%
-13.4%
-7.2%
-4.3%
-11.9%
-3.0%