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7

(): . .()-81


: 0823027-
_________________________
( )
:
_________________________

2012

1

1. ,
.
2. ,
10, 9, 7, 8 7
.
3.
, .
4.

5%.
5.
10% (
: 0,33, 0,5,
0,52, 0,35, 0,43, 0,6).

5%.
:
1. :
1

1
2
3
4
5

.-
. .

1
17,54
18,81
5,95
6,12
10,83
59,25
389,51
448,76
76
33

2
128,29
180,24
29,71
34,31
97,17
469,72
271,05
740,77
36
97

3
4
5
0,82
0
14,61
107,77 14,75
82,23
70,61 85,06
78,49
41,62 48,38
101,34
89,19 61,55
279,84
310,01 209,74 556,51
439,33 197,14 1154,47
749,34 406,88 1 710,98
69
40
58
125
83
75

..

161,26
403,8
269,82
231,77
538,58

287,5
336,97
479,52
175,11
1172,4

1 605,23
2 451,50
4 056,73
279
413

2 451,50

..
448,76
740,77
749,34
406,88
1710,98
4 056,73

,
.
,

.
. 1. ,

2

( .)
( . -.)
n

j =1

yi = z j . : (2451,5=2451,5).
i =1

2.
X =B Y
xij = aij xj (i,j = 1, n ), ,
.

.
:
0,039
0,042
0,013
0,014
0,024

0,173
0,243
0,040
0,046
0,131

0,001
0,144
0,094
0,056
0,119

0,000
0,036
0,209
0,119
0,151

0,009
0,048
0,046
0,059
0,164

= ( ) 1.

, .
.
:
1,053
0,068
0,027
0,025
0,049

0,25
1,376
0,101
0,1
0,255

0,047
0,24
1,15
0,101
0,221

0,026
0,131
0,292
1,179
0,276

0,03
0,102
0,09
0,095
1,242

X=BY
,
10, 9, 7, 8, 7 (%). :
316,25
367,30
513,09
189,12
1254,47

X =B Y:
491,502
802,777
803,810
438,603
1832,795
491,502

.
.

xij=aijxj, .
. 2.

1
2
3
4
5

.
..

1
19,21
20,60
6,52
6,70
11,86
64,89
426,61
491,50

2
139,03
195,33
32,20
37,18
105,30
509,04
293,74
802,78

3
0,88
115,60
75,74
44,65
95,67
332,54
471,27
803,81

4
0,00
15,90
91,69
52,15
66,35
226,09
212,51
438,60

2
5
15,65
88,08
84,08
108,56
299,76
596,13
1236,66
1832,80

174,77
435,52
290,23
249,24
578,95
1728,70
2640,79
4369,49

..

316,25
367,30
513,09
189,12
1254,47
2640,22

.
491,50
802,78
803,81
438,60
1832,80
4369,49

.2 .
3. .3
. :
tj=Lj/Xj, fj = j/Xj. :
tj
fj

0,169
0,074

0,049
0,131

0,092
0,167

0,098
0,204

0,034
0,044

,
, .
, ,
. :
L

83,239
36,143

39,013
74,016
43,119
105,120 134,086 89,471

62,129
80,340

301,52
445,16

5
, .
4. ,
X=B*Y. Y
3- 5 %. ,
, 3-, , .
. , 3-
(513,09* 0,05 = 25,65). ,
Y = (0 0 25,65 0 0 0),

X = (1,206 6,157 29,502 2,591 5,67)


(X B Y). ,
.
:
4

(0,24 0,77 3,67 0,59 0,31).


,
3- .
5. P=BTV,
vj = zj / xj,
10 %- .
, :
0,868

0,366

0,586

0,485

0,675

,
. 6 .
:
0,286 0,183 0,305 0,170 0,290
10 % vj,
. , vj
:
0,897

0,384

0,617

0,501

0,704

P = BT V
, .
.
, . ,

.
:
1,034
1,045
1,050
1,039
1,043

, , 10 %-

3,4 % 5,0 %.

5
%. P = BT V, V
.
V = (0,014 0 0 0 0 ).

P = (0,015 0,004 0,001 0,0003 0,0004).


, 1 1,5 %,
. , 2- 0,4 %.
,

BT.
5


.

,
, .

:
1, 2, 3, 4 ,
:
4 1 + 2 2 +
3 +
1
52 +

4 + +
2
1

5 3 +
3 3 +
2 3 +
3 3 +
0

2 4
4
6 4
2 4
j = 1,4

550
350
650 ,
650

Z=9x1+3x2+5x3+4,5x4 .

:
4 1 + 2 2 +
3 +
1
52 +

4 +
2 +
1
x j 0, s j

5 3 +
3 3 +

2 4 + s1
4 + s2

= 550
= 350

2 3 + 6 4 + s 3

= 650

3 3 + 2 4 + s 4
0
j = 1,4

= 650

Z=9x1+3x2+5x3+4,5x4 max

.
. :
*1 = 82,6923, *2 = 7,6923, *3 = 0, *4=101,9231.
Zmax = 1225,96. , Zmax = 9*82,6923 + 3*7,6923+
+ 4,5*101,9231 = 744,23 + 23,08 + 458,65 = 1225,96.
. y1, y2, y3, y4,
:
7

4 y1 +
2 y +
1
5 y1 +
2 y +
1

3 y2 +

4 y4

3 y2 +

5 y3 +
2 y3 +

y4
3 y4

y2 +
yi 0

6 y3 +
i = 1 .4

2 y4

3
5 ,
4,5

W = 550y1 + 350y2 + 650y3 + 650y4


.
:
1* = 1,2115, 2* = 1,3846, 3* = 0,1154, 4* = 0.

:
1. ,
( ),
. ,
2- (2*= 1,3846), 4- (
) (4*= 0).
2. 1*, 2*, 3* . ,
.
, j* 1- :
4*82,6923+2*7,6923+2*101,9231=330,7692+15,3846+203,8462=550.
2- 3- :
3*82,6923+101,9231=350;
5*7,6923+6*101,9231=650.
, 1, 2 3 . 4*=0. ,
.
. j* :
4*82,6923+7,6923+2*101,9231= 330,7692+7,6923+203,8462 = 542,308.
4- 650-542,308=107,69.
s4= 107,69
.
3. 1, 2 4- (*1, *2 *4
), 3- *3 = 0.
, *i .
4*1,2115+3*1,3846+4*0 = 8,9998 9.
.
2- 4- :
251,2115+5*0,1154=2,423+0,577=3;
2*1,2115+1,3846+6*0,1154=4,5.
, *i
. :
52*1,21915+3*1,3846+2*0,1154=6,0575+4,1538+0,2308=10,4421,
5,4421.

3

4 6
.
5 1

, : =
:

ij 4,
1. 4. , = 4
, .

. (6, 5). , = 5.
.
:
1
min Z = t1 + t2

2
max W = u1 + u2

4t1 + 5t 2 1,

6t1 + t 2 1,

4u1 + 6u 2 1,

5u1 + u 2 1,

t1, 2 0.

u1, 2 0.

2 .
4u1 + 6u 2 + u 3 = 1,

5u1 + u 2 + u 4 = 1,
max W = u1 + u 2.

i
0 u3
0 u4
W
0 u1
1 u4
1 u1
1 u2
W

i 0

u1

u2

u3

u4

1
1
0
0,2
0,2
1/26
5/26
3/1
3

4
5
1
0
1
0
1
0

6
1
1
5,2
0,2
1
0
0

1
0
0
1
0
5/26
5/13
2/13

0
1
0
0,8
0,2
2/13
3/13
3/13

0,25
0,2

t1

t2

U = (1/26; 5/26), t = (2/13; 3/13), W = 3/13. V =

1/26
1

1
= 13/3
W


uj = yj / V, yj = uj V, = ,

1 5
5
, V = . ti = xi / V,
3
6 6

2
xi = ti V, X = , 1
3

10

4
4
: (%), 1
(/-), 2
(%) 3 (/).
- :
1) ;
2)
;
3) ;
4)
;
5)

,
.
:
:
Continue
1
2
3

16
16
16
16

Mean
108,2500
84,5438
8,2688
199,8188

Minimum
100,0000
60,0000
7,1000
170,0000

Maximum
112,0000
102,0000
9,2000
220,0000

Std.Dev
2,95522
13,86223
,68869
12,98970

.
, (mean)
, ,
,
,
.
.
.
, 5%-
( < 0,05). ,
. 2 3, 2. ..
2
, 2 .
. ..,
1 3. ,
1 .
1 .
,
: = a + b1
11

Continue
Varifble
1
2
3

1,0000
=---,8370
=,000
,3317
=,210
,5391
=,031

1
,8370
=,000
1,0000
=---,5703
=,021
,5810
=,018

2
,3317
=,210
,5703
=,021
1,0000
=---,0063
=,982

3
,5391
=,031
,5810
=,018
,0063
=,982
1,0000
=----

:
Multiple Regression Analysis
Dependent variable: y
Parameter
Estimate
CONSTANT
86,9901
X1
0.174188
X2
-0,098505
X3
0.0410453

Standard Error
8,19667
0.0577005
0,775332
0.0432516
Analysis of Variance
Source
Sum of Squares Df Mean Square
Model
114,21
3
38,0701
Residual
40,7896
12
3,39914
Total (Corr)
155,0
15
R-squared=73,6841 percent
R-squared (adjusted for d/f/) = 67,1051 percent
Standard Error of Est = 1,84367
Mean absolute error=1,42795
Durbin-Watson statistic=2,61736

T Statistic
10,4909
3,01884
-0,127049
0,948989

P-Value
0,00000
0.0107
0.9010
0.3613

F-Ratic
11,20

P-Value
0.0009

2. .
, .
. Parameter Estimate

( ).
, (
):
= 86,99 + 0,171 0,0982 + 0,043
,
, , , 1 1 /-.,
0,17 %, 3 1
/ 0,04 %.

.
3. .
( Analysis of Variance).
, ,
.
. ()
12

4,47. ,

( 0,05, 3 12).
,
( 11,2) , F0:0.25:3:12< F = 11,2.
, .
-,
. - <0,05,
, : .

, ,
. ,
, .
t0,25,3 = 2,13.
( T Statistic
) , 1
(3,02 > 2,13). ,
( 1). ..

,
.
.
,
-,
( P-Value). 3 -
0,05 ( ).
,
.
(R-squared) 73,68%.
,
73,68 % .
(R-squared (adjusted
for d/f/)) ( 67,1,
.
(Standard Error of Est) 1,84
, ,
, 1,84 %,
.. .

, ,
.
- 2,61.
d1=0,86, du=1.73 (
).
13

,
:
.

. .

. .

------------0,86-------------1,73--------------------2,27----------------3,14----------------- d = 2,6, .
4. 2 ( t, 0,127).
= 85,33 + 0,171 + 0,043.
.
- . , 1
, .. tb1 = 3,57 > tT ( = 0,05; df = 12) = 2,18.
3 , ..
tb3 = 1,02 > tT . , = +
b11.
.. 1 70% (0,8372 = 0,700),
1 3 73,65%.

( = 73,65%). ( 1,77).
. -
0,998. (
= 2), .
d1=0,98, du=1,54.
:
.

. .

. .

-----------------0,98-------------------1,54-----------2,46------------3,02---------------d = 2,68 ,
, ..
.
Multiple Regression Analysis
Dependent variable: y
Parameter
Estimate
CONSTANT
85,3289
X1
0.170442
X3
0,0419279

Standard Error
6,08807
0.0476836
0,0410429
Analysis of Variance
Source
Sum of Squares
Df Mean Square
Model
114,155
2
57,0777
Residual
40,8445
13
3,14188
Total (Corr)
155,0
15
R-squared=73,6487 percent
R-squared (adjusted for d/f/) = 69,5947 percent
Standard Error of Est = 1,77254
Mean absolute error=1,41382
Durbin-Watson statistic=2,68371

T Statistic
14,0158
3,57444
1,02156
F-Ratic
18,17

P-Value
0.0000
0.0034
0.3256
P-Value
0.0002

14

5.

. : b1 = 0,17, b3 = 0,04, 1 = 84,54, 3 =


199,82, S1 = 13,86, S3 = 12,99, = 108,25, Sy = 2,955.
1 = b( S: Sy ); 1 = 0,17 (13,86 : 23,955) = 0,797, 3 = 0,04 (12,99 :
2,955) = 0,176.
1 = b ( : ),

1 = 0,17 (84,54 : 108,25) = 0,13,

3= 0,04 (199,82 : 108,25) = 0,07.


- ,

,
(3 > 1).
,
1 %
0,07%,
1 %
0,13 %.

15


1. .. :
. , 1999
2. .., ..
: . ,
1998
3. ..
. -: .,, 2004
4. , /
. . . .. . .: ,
, 2006.

16