WhyIdonthaveagirlfriend: AnapplicationoftheDrakeEquationtoloveintheUK PeterBackus TheDrakeequationisusedtoestimatethenumberofhighlyevolved civilizationsthatmightexistinourgalaxy.Theequationwasdevelopedin1961 byDr.FrankDrakeattheNationalRadioAstronomyObservatoryinGreenBank, WestVirginia.

. Theequationisgenerallyspecifiedas: G = R f P ne f l f i f e L where, G=Thenumberofcivilizationscapableofinterstellarcommunication R=Therateofformationofstarscapableofsupportinglife(starslikeourSun) ne=TheaveragenumberofplanetssimilartoEarthperplanetarysystem fl=ThefractionoftheEarthlikeplanetssupportinglifeofanykind fi=Thefractionoflifesupportingplanetswhereintelligentlifedevelops fc=Thefractionofplanetswithintelligentlifethatarecapableofinterstellar communication(thosewhichhaveelectromagnetictechnologylikeradioorTV) L=Thelengthoftimesuchcommunicatingcivilizationssurvive UsingthisequationProfDrakeestimatedthat10,000communicative civilizationsprobabilisticallyexistintheMilkyWayalone.Astronomersestimate thattherearebetween200and400billionstarsintheMilkyWay.Letscallit 300billion.Thismakestheprobabilityofastarchosenatrandomsupportinglife capableofinterstellarcommunication3.333e08or0.00000003%. Anotherwaytothinkaboutthisisthatthisistheprobabilityoftheconditions necessaryforustocommunicatewithanaliencivilizationbeingsatisfied.These seemlikeslimoddsatbest,buttheprobabilityispositive(Thereisachance!) andthisapproachiswidelyacceptedbyastronomers(Thisisntascience fiction!).Theideathattherecouldbe10,000civilizationsthatwearecapableof communicatingwithisveryexcitingindeed. Whileextraterrestrialcivilizationsmayberare,thereissomethingthatis seeminglyrarerstill:Agirlfriend.Forme.Whatmighttheapproachemployedin theestimationofthenumberofaliencivilizationstellusaboutthenumberof potentialgirlfriendsforme?Asomewhatlessscientificquestion,Iadmit,butone ofsubstantialpersonalimportance.

Theparametersareredefinedasfollowswiththevaluesinparentheses: G=Thenumberofpotentialgirlfriends. OnecaneasilysubstituteboyfriendsinherebutasIammostlya heterosexualmaleIwillfocusonthesearchforagirlfriend. R=TherateofformationofpeopleintheUK(i.e.populationgrowth). Thisisabout150,000peopleperyearoverthelast60years.1 fW=ThefractionofpeopleintheUKwhoarewomen. Seetheaboveclarification.(0.51) fL=ThefractionofwomenintheUKwholiveinLondon. Iwouldlikemygirlfriendtobenearbysothatwecanseeeachother.This makesiteasiertogettoknoweachother,avoidsthedifficultiesofalong distancerelationshipandsavesmethetrainfare.(0.13) fA=ThefractionofthewomeninLondonwhoareageappropriate. Iamnearly31yearsold(Thankyou,IknowIdontlookit).Iwouldlike mygirlfriendtobenearmyownage.IdontwanttofeelolderthanIam bynotbeingabletokeepupwithaspritely20yearold,orbecauseI haventreadTwilightandIdontknowwhotheJonasBrothersare.Nor doIwanttofallpreytoavoraciouscougarortoberegaledwithstoriesof thewar.LetssayIamlookingforawomanbetween24and34yearsof age.(0.20) fU=ThefractionofageappropriatewomeninLondonwithauniversity education. Iamnottryingtobeanelitistoranything,butIwouldlikemygirlfriend tohaveauniversityeducation.Ithinkwewouldhavemoreincommon andI wouldlikesomeoneIcoulddiscussmyworkwithsometimes.I knowthattherearemanyintelligentpeoplewhodontgotouniversity,so dontgetallrighteouslyindignant.Everyonehaspreferences.Howmany womenouttherehavedatedmenshorterthanthemselves?Irestmy case.(0.26)
1http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?ID=950

 fB=Thefractionofuniversityeducated,ageappropriatewomeninLondon whoIfindphysicallyattractive. Physicalattractivenessisimportant.Itisoftenthefirstthingpeople noticeabouteachotheranditmakessexeasier.Notthatmypotential girlfriendneedbeconsideredattractivebyanyoneelse,butitis importantthatIfindherattractive.Thisisatoughparameterto estimate.LetsbegenerousandsayIfind1in20,or5%ofage appropriatewomeninLondonwithauniversityeducationphysically attractive.(0.05) L=ThelengthoftimeinyearsthatIhavebeenalivethusmakingan encounterwithapotentialgirlfriendpossible. Goodlord,Iamold.(31) Wecansimplifytheabovespecificationbyrecognizingthatthenumberofpeople whohaveeverlivedintheUKisrelatedtothepopulationgrowthrateby T N = 0 R(t)dt whereTistheageoftheUK.IfweassumethatRisconstantovertheperiodT than N = R T .WhilethissimplificationisoftenusedfortheDrakeEquations intendedpurpose,itisnotagoodassumptionwhenadaptingtheequationfor ourpurposeshere.InsteadweuseN*,thepopulationoftheUKasof2007,where N*=60,975,000.2 WiththissimplificationwecanrespecifytheDrakeequationas: G = N * f W f L f A fU f B Ifweplugintheabovevaluesweget: G = 60,975,000 0.51 0.13 0.20 0.26 0.05 or G=10,510 So,whatthismeansisthatthereare10,510peopleintheUKthatsatisfythese mostbasiccriteriaforbeingmygirlfriend.Thatis0.00017%oftheUKand 0.0014%ofLondoners,whichdoesntseemsobad.OnagivennightinLondon, thereisgreaterthana1in1000chancethatIwillmeetanattractivewoman betweentheagesof24and34withauniversitydegree.Ofcoursethisdoesnot takeintoaccountthefractionofthesewomenthatwillfindmeattractive 2http://www.statistics.gov.uk/cci/nugget.asp?ID=950 3

(depressinglylow),thefractionofthesewomenwhowillbesingle(fallingwith age)and,perhapsmostimportantly,thefractionofthesewomenwhoIwillget alongwith.Includingsuchfactorswouldgreatlyreducetheabovefigureof 10,510.Aroughestimateputsthenumberofpotentialgirlfriendsaccountingfor thesethreeadditionalcriteria(1in20ofthewomenfindmeattractive,halfare singleandIgetalongwith1in10)at26.Thatscorrect.Thereare26womenin LondonwithwhomImighthaveawonderfulrelationship.So,onagivennight outinLondonthereisa0.0000034%chanceofmeetingoneofthesespecial people,about100timesbetterthanfindinganaliencivilizationwecan communicatewith.Thatsa1in285,000chance.Notgreat. Makeofthiswhatyouwill.Itmightcheeryouup,itmightdepressyou.Iguessit dependsonwhatyouthoughtyourchanceswerebeforereadingthis.