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, ,

, .

.
.

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2-3

70%

: Thomas Fuller, 2007; Knowledge Doubling Curve, Buckminster Fuller, Activate Magazine Online, 2008
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, 50 ,
95% .

I ,

20 000 .
XXI 1000
, .

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Web

.com

.org.uk
.us. eu
.biz .info
.me.uk .name
et al.

(Web 2.0)

.net .org
.co.uk

2
1

(E-commerce)

(ARPANET)

(Brochureware)

: Cisco IBSG, 2011


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?
IP


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:
,

,


.

16 2009

Source: Dave Evans, Cisco IBSG, 2011


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6,3

6,8

7,2

7,6

500

~10

19

50

0,08

1,47

2,64

6,58

2003

2010

2015

2020

2016 : 19
3,4
Source: Cisco IBSG, 2011, Cisco VNI 2012
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1995 2000

2000 2011

10

1,4

200

1,3

/ BYOD
( )
( )
: Cisco IBSG, 2012
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10

60%

47%

41%

Source: Cisco IBSG, 2012


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11

BYOD

42%

63%

,

,
, ""
" "
N = 4,892

: Cisco IBSG, 2012


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12


( )

/ BYOD
( )


( )

50 ?

10

1,4

200

1,3

1995

2000

2011

2020

Sources: Cisco IBSG, 2012


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13

50

(1x1x1 )

(1x1x1 )

250x250

(0,05 x 0,05 )


,
,
..
4

: Cisco IBSG, 2011; University of Michigan, 2011; Fraunhofer, 2011; Wikipedia, 2011
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15


90% ( 5
.)

100 000

2007 294

Wi-Fi (1 2012 )

Cisco Planetary Skin:


,

WAN
(Wide-area network)

MAN
(Metropolitan-area network)

LAN
(Local-area network)

PAN
(Personal-area
network)

HP CeNSE: 1 ,
,
""

802.11ac - 1Gbps WiFi - 2012


2012 .,


(100 /)
: Cisco IBSG, 2012; GSMA, United Nations: International Telecommunication Union; Real-Aliens.Com, 20062011, UN 2012
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16


, , ?

4 200 .
?


200

LIFX

WiFi

Proteus

: Cisco IBSG, 2011; Sparked, 2010; Nike, 2010; David Van Sickle, 2011; Proteus, 2011, Kickstarter 2012
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17



1
4
2012, : 100
9
- ():
100 .

2-3
2040 75%

Image: IEEE Spectrum


273%

2025 , ,
, ,
, .
-
: IEEE Spectrum, 2012, Ford, 2012, BBC, 2012
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18

IPv6:

52 000

100

4,8


- IPv4: 4 294 967 296

- IPv6: 340 282 366 920 938 463 463 374 607 431 768 211 456
: Cisco IBSG, 20062011; Steve Leibson, Computer History Museum; CNN
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19

: Cisco IBSG, 2011


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20

,

.

Source: Cisco IBSG, 2011


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21

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22


2008 5

2013 :

1 DVD

10

,
5 000
: Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Cisco IBSG, 20062012, Google, 2012
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23

2016

1,3
1 = 20

(72 )

540 000
2003
( 90% -
)


1 ,
1

: Cisco Visual Networking Index (VNI), June 2011, May 2012


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1,2

2013 :

100
,

125
-

2020
44 , 2009
: IDC, 2010; Cisco IBSG, 20062011
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25

>560
210 email

60

2015

( 674 )

1/4
(3 )

92%

3 ,

2000

140

2015

(10 )

2/3


: Cisco IBSG, 20062011; Cisco VNI, June 2011; Technorati; Radicati Group; IDC; The Economist; Apple; InformationWeek
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Cisco TelePresence

OLED

: Cisco, 2009; Plastic Logic, 2005; Philips, 2008; Microsoft, 2009; Samsung, 2011
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: 10 = 5122
(50 50
)
: 2400 =
5122 (20
800 )
: 10243
= 100Hz (1
800 000 )

: Daniel Kraft, TEDxMaastricht, 2011; Microsoft, 2011


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28

Big Data ?
Google Recorded Future,
", ".

California Riverside , ,


.*

Target
, ,
, (
).

Google: "Sign up for unemployment



Google:
.

Big Data
: UC Riverside, OReilly Strata conference.
Cisco IBSG 2012 Cisco and/or its affiliates. All rights reserved.

* -,
.
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29

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""



,
.

: Cisco IBSG, 2011


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31

Web
-

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020 ,


20%
2014 -
1


: Lew Tucker, Cloud CTO, Cisco, 2011; EMC, 2010; IDC, 2010
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32



Word Lens

Vocre

Google Goggles

AT&T
,

: Quest Visual, 2011; Google 2011, AT&T 2012, , Vocre 2012, Engadget 2012
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Wolfram Alpha

: Quest Visual, 2011; Google 2011


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Watson ?
""

IBM Watson
""

Jeopardy

Watson


2012 . Watson 2.0:


IBM Watson .
: IBM, 2011
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Source: Cisco IBSG, 2011


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,
.

Source: Cisco IBSG, 2011


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:
1990 170 000 .
10 3 .

2020

1 Gbps

: 38

1 Telnet

2016
400 Mbps
2013
200 Mbps

2010
50 Mbps

1990

1992

300 bps

2 400 bps

1995

2003

1998

2006

114K bps 2 Mbps


9 600 bps 56K bps

2008

2012

16 Mps

: Dave Evans, Cisco IBSG, 19902011


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2011: Ericsson SantAnna 448 /
(20 )

2011: Northwestern University


2011: 100 /

2011:
26 /

2012: NTT (o-RAM)


2012:

2,5 / ( Blu-ray )

2012: IEEE 400Gbps /1Tbps Ethernet


: American Physical Society, 2011; BBC, 2011, NTT 2012, IEEE, 2012
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Cisco



(1,3
)

Cisco Carrier
Routing System
(CRS-3)

,
4


WebEx

Cisco
ASR 9000

: American Physical Society, 2011; BBC, 2011


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6
,
4 ,

40%
Internet Business Solutions Group

42


,
?

,
.

: Cisco IBSG, 2011


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TelePresence
Email

: Cisco, 2011; Cisco IBSG, 2006-2011


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: Twitter, 2011; U.S. Geological Survey, 2011


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NOAA

, ,

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10

: Cisco IBSG, 2011
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: Cisco IBSG, 2011


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Source: Cisco IBSG, 2011


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( Cisco
IBSG
)

: Google, 2011
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Dragon Facebook

Google

Siri from Apple


Sources: Google, 2011; Nuance, 2011, Apple 2011
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AR

AR TelePresence

AR-
AR
: Cisco IBSG, 2011; Total Immersion; Yelp; MDiTV
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2011 .

Star 1200 AR
2011 .

AR
2021

1080p HD


10
2011


1
2011

: Oxford University, 2011; Vuzix, 2011, Physorg 2011, BBC 2011


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Cisco StyleMe

MIT

Kinect

Oblongs g-speak: - Minority-report


: Cisco IBSG, 2012; Microsoft, 2010; Fast Company; Massachusetts Institute of Technology; Oblong, 2010
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,
, ,
,
.
10


( )

NECs Eye Flavor

Immersive Labs
: Cisco IBSG, 2011; NEC, 2011; Immersive Labs, 2011
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2009
, (
80%- ).

2009

(brain-to-brain)

2009 ,

Brain-controlled prosthesis

( 95%- )

2010
3D-

2010 ,
( 90%- )

2011
, ,

Mind-controlled wheelchair

2030

: Cisco IBSG, 2011; Toyota; CNN; USA Today; KurzweilAI.net; wfs.org


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.


.

: Cisco IBSG, 2011


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: ,

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3D-


.
,
,
.

: Dave Evans, Cisco IBSG, 2011


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?
-

: Dave Evans, Cisco IBSG, 2011; European Air Defense System


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(3D-)

-
( ,
)


1 MB





: Stratasys, 2011
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? .


: Stratasys, 2011; European Air Defense System
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Autodesk Inventor 2010
188

: Stratasys, 2011
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$ 900 000

Stratasys FDM*

$ 25 000

1,5

$ 875 000 (97%)

7,5
(83%)

*Fused Deposition Modeling

: Stratasys, 2011
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" "
( )

: Shapeways; WellSphere; Graphic Speak; Ecouterre; Legacy Effects


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X PRIZE 2010


200

Urbee

: Stratasys, 2010; Kor Ecologic, 2010


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?
,


(MIT)


( 1 000 )

: Massachusetts Institute of Technology, 2011; Cornell University, 2011


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285

. ~100

,


: 5
: D-Shape, 2011, Vienna University of Technology, 2012
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D-Shape:

Cisco Confidential

5-10

4 ,

3050% ,

Internet Business Solutions Group

73



22 .
-
Wake
Forest

: Wake Forest Institute for Regenerative Medicine, 2011


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2011 -

(
)
: Wake Forest Institute for Regenerative Medicine, 2011
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Shapeways:

1:

2:

3:

10 ,

14

: Shapeways, 2011
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?

,
.
5 10 .

1 000 000

1984
HP LaserJet
$ 3 500


CTO, Autodesk

2011
BFB-3000 3D Printer

800 000
$ 3 524

600 000
400 000

MakerBot Thing-O-Matic Kit

200 000

$ 1 299

0
Tiny 3D Printer (3.3 lbs.)
$ 1 700

: HP, 2011; Desktop Factory, 2011; MakerBot Industries, 2011


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,
.

: Cisco IBSG, 2011


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65
516 2009
1,53 2050


: Cisco IBSG, 2011; U.S. Census Bureau, June 2009
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:

2020
.

-
British Telecommunications

: Cisco IBSG, 2006-2011; Carnegie Mellon, 2004; Image Metrics, 2010


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83

2015:
;



iCub

2020:

HRP-4C
BigDog

2025:

2032:

Shadow hand

2035:

,
: DARPA; Sony; sensornetworks.net; wfs.org; Kokoro Co. Ltd; Switched; Cisco IBSG, 2011
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,
.

: Cisco IBSG, 2011


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: ?



.
,
,
.

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?
2010


2012

2012

2009

2010



"-",


()

2009

2009

Wicab
,
""

2009

Organovo

2011


,
)

2010
Massachusetts General
() 11

2012

2010

Long Beach
Veterans Affairs
,

: Cisco IBSG, 2011; Science Magazine, 2010, Roswell Park Cancer Institute, 2012

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:
?

20
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0

2010
BioTime


Manhattan
Beach - 2029

2011


,
,

60

: Cisco IBSG, 2011; BioTime, April 2010; www.manhattanbeachproject.com,


Fonctionnelle Gnomique Institute (INSERM / CNRS / Universit de Montpellier 2011
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90

,
!
.

? ?

: Cisco IBSG, 2011


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