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,

..
...,
( )
(e-mail: anatoly-klimenko@yandex.ru)

:
1. ..
: . .: , 2010. 292 .
2. ..
. . .
, 2010, .4, .81-100.
3. ..
.
. . , 2010, .4, .100111.
4. ..
.
. . , 2011, .1, .80-98.
5. ..
.
. . , 2011,
.1, .99-112.


1.
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()

TOBAS,

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:

(MIT)


2003

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

THE FUTURE OF NUCLEAR POWER


AN INTERDISCIPLINARY MIT STADY, 2003

, ,

13636
38723
38723
38723

13636
38723
63840
63840


0
50
100
150

,
,

2230
8321
13718
13718

2230
14094
23236
23236


0
50
100
150

1948
5532
5532
5532

1948
5532
9120
9120


0
50
100
150

319
1189
1960
1960

319
2014
3320
3320


0
50
100
150

, ,
.
VVER-1000(U), - VVER-1000(Pu),
BN-800, BN-1600, BREST-1200.
(
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( 2060 ) -1000
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.
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2000 .
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(
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, TW

8
7

= (VVER-1000U) + (VVER-1000Pu) + (BN-1600Pu) + (BREST-1200Pu) + (BN-800Pu)


= (COAL-01) + (COAL-02)
= (GAS-01) + (GAS-02)

6
GAS-02

GAS-01
COAL-02
COAL-01

BN-800P
BR-1200P
BN-1600P

VV-1000P
VV-1000U

2
1
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

150

DATE=20070618_133000

. 1. (TW): a) ()
; b) 8%/,
15%/ ( ), 12%/ ( ); c) K = ; d) . -
= 10 **(-08); e) VVER-1000U , - t >30 ;
0 10 11.5%/, 9.6%/,
10 40 15 %/ 12 %/.


,

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5.
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121

894

45

62

40

200

6.
( )

*1)

1 , USD *3
< 40

< 80

< 130

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66 100

145 000

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17 200

36 500

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56 300

104 500

550 000

SR *2)

6. .

( )
*1)

:
1. RAR (Reasonable Assured Resources)
.
.
2. EAR-I (Estimated Additional Resources Category I) ,
.
, RAR.
3. EAR-II (Estimated Additional Resources Category II)
,
.
, EAR-I.
4. SR (Speculative Resources) EAR-II
,
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*2)

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USD .

7.
(MOX-)

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USD/

, USD/

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USD/

(UOX),
USD/

(),
USD/

UOX-,
USD/

DOEGEN-IV**

Fetter, Bunn,
Holdren***

20-30-40

20-30-80

33

30

3-5-7

3-5-8

4-6-8

50-80-110

50-80-120

50-100-150

100

200-250-300

200-250-350

150-250-350

275

410-530-650

210-410-640

0-150-300
(,
)

400

700-800-900

500-800-1100

500-1000-1600

1000

OECD/NEA

(2002)*

7. .
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USD/

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USD/

(),
USD/

MOX-,
USD/

DOEGEN-IV**

Fetter, Bunn,
Holdren***

700-800-900

500-800-1100

500-1000-1600

1000

700-800-900

500-800-1100

63-72-81

80-200-310

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300

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1500

OECD/NEA

(2002)*

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172
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62
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102

31
97
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()

()



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eff = 0%/
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:
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14.
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10; 15 %/, cUSD/()

()

()



:
eff = 0%/
eff = 5%/
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eff = 15%/

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7.25

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5.57
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2.83
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2.83
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:
eff = 0%/
eff = 5%/
eff = 10%/
eff = 15%/


. , .

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31.285
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15.565
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55.975
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49.289
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44.763
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44.359
52.559

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-
():

********** ********** ********** ********** ********** **********




,

.

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(XIX )

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