BARRION|BUTALID|DISUANCO|DAGMANG|LOPEZ|NILLES

THE BANKERS OFFER

2 Factors: #1: Amounts in the remaining briefcases #2: Players psychology

#1: Remaining Amounts

The expected Value of your briefcase is based on the number of remaining suitcases and their amounts = 1 1 1 1 + 5 + 10 + 26 26 26

Or simply, the mean: 1 = 1 + 5 + 10 + 26

#2: Players psychology

The banker offers a very small initial amount to keep the game going If the banker wishes to lengthen the game, he lessens the offer If the banker wants the player to say Deal because of the high possibility of getting the high amounts, he makes a bigger offer

How do you know

when to say

Deal
or

No Deal?

HOW DOES THE PLAYER KNOW WHEN TO SAY DEAL?

If there is a high probability that he will get an amount higher than the bankers offer (players usually use this) If the bankers offer is higher than the mean of the remaining amounts? (players dont usually calculate the mean of the remaining amounts)

1 5

1,000 2,500 5,000 10,000 25,000 50,000 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000

Example: If the banker offers 195000, what is the probability that you will get a prize higher than his offer?

10 25 50 75 100 150 200 300

400
500 750

500,000
1,000,000 2,000,000

1,000 2,500 5,000 10,000 25,000 50,000 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000

If the banker offers 156000, what is the possibility that you will get a prize higher than his offer?

5 10 25 50 75 100 150 200 300

Values higher than 156000: 200,000 300,000 500,000 2,000,000

Probability = 4 out of 20 or 20%

400
500 750

500,000
1,000,000 2,000,000

1,000 2,500 5,000 10,000 25,000 50,000 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000

Is the offer higher than the mean?

5 10 25 50 75 100 150 200 300

Mean =
= 157,772.8

Offer > Mean

400
500 750

500,000
1,000,000 2,000,000

http://www.pearsonified.com/2006/0 3/deal_or_no_deal_the_real_deal.php