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Analyzing Human Extinction Scenarios and Related Hazards
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(c) Nick Bostrom
Dept. of Philosophy, Logic and Scientific method
London School of Economics; Houghton St.; WC2A AE; London; UK
Email: n.bostrom@lse.ac.uk
Homepage: http://www.hedweb.com/nickb
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?, New Scientist , , : .
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BY NICK BOSTROM
[Published in Philosophical Quarterly (2003) Vol. 53, No. 211,
pp. 243-255. (First version: 2001)]
http://www.simulation-argument.com/simulation.pdf

http://www.scribd.com/doc/13107082/: ..
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.. :


Risk Analysis, forthcoming
Milan M. irkovi
Astronomical Observatory of Belgrade, Volgina 7,
11160 Belgrade-74, Serbia
E-mail: mcirkovic@aob.rs
Anders Sandberg
Future of Humanity Institute, Faculty of Philosophy
& James Martin 21st Century School, Oxford University, Oxford, UK
E-mail: anders.sandberg@philosophy.ox.ac.uk
Nick Bostrom
Future of Humanity Institute Faculty of Philosophy & James Martin
21st Century School, Oxford University, UK
E-mail: nick.bostrom@philosophy.ox.ac.uk
: ..
dmitry.borisoglebsky@gmail.com
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(antropic bias
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, ,
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RHIC . , . , DDH, , , , RHIC
( 10 ): 359

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[1] BJSW DDH , RHIC. , , . 100 , ,
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5 RHIC
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360

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361

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362

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363

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364

, , ,
, . (Alvaro de Rujula), , , New Scientist [15],
,
.
,
,
.
VIII.
.
DDH and BJSW
DDH [2] BJSW [1], [12], [13].

, . , , ,
,
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10-6
[16]. , , . , ,
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365

IX. .

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366

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1


BJSW DDH , CERN , , W. Pratt et al.,
Brookhaven National Laboratory Memo to T. Ludlam and J. Marburger, 17.2.00. [18].

370

, , ,

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, 371

( ) ,
,
, , . , , ,
. ,
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, ,
, , .
, , , , ,
, , ,
,
, .

,
,
. Clark Chapman

. Andy Baker,
; Hans Bethe Kurt Gottfried,
- ; Guido
Altarelli, John Ellis, Jean-Pierre Revol, Jurgen Schukraft Gavin Salam ; Conor Houghton KatinkaRidderbos
; Richard Binzel, Hans Rickman David Morrison ; Holger Bech Nielsen,
; Francesco Calogero
[18].
Stephen Adler, Michael Atiyah, Guido Bacciagaluppi, David Bailin, Jon Barrett, John Barrow, Dorothy Bishop, James Blodgett, Charlotte Bonardi,
Harvey Brown, Jeremy Butterfield, Joanne Cohn, Jane Cox, Ian Crotty, Matthias
Dorrzapf, Fay Dowker, Ian Drummond, Michael Froomkin, Nicolas Gisin, Peter
Goddard, Stephen Gratton, Lucien Hardy, Julia Hawkins, Ron Horgan, Tobias
Hurth, Simon Judge, Anjali Kumar, Peter Landshoff, Nathan Lepora, Karen
McDonald, Jane MacGibbon, David Mermin, Hugh Osborn, Sandu Popescu, Patrick Rabbitt, Martin Rees, Stefan Reimoser, Peter Ruback, Paul Saffin, Hugh
Shanahan, Graham Shore, Tony Sudbery, John Taylor, Daniel Waldram, Peter
West Toby Wiseman . , , , 372

-
. CERN
, ,
(Royal Society
University Research Fellowship)
(UK Particle Physics and Astronomy Research
Council).
[1] W. Busza et al., Review of Speculative Disaster Scenarios at RHIC,
archived at www.arxiv.org/abs/hep-ph/9910333v1.
[2] A. Dar et al., Will relativistic heavy ion colliders destroy our planet?,
Phys. Lett. B, 470 142-148 (1999); archived at hep-ph/9910471.
[3] E. Konopinski, C. Marvin and E. Teller, Ignition of the Atmosphere
with Nuclear Bombs, Los Alamos Laboratory report LA-602.
, http://libwww.lanl.gov/la-pubs/00329010.pdf. -, , . , 11 . .
[4] Pearl Buck, The bomb the end of the world?, American Weekly,
March 8, 1959, pp 8-11.
[5] I am most grateful to Hans Bethe and Kurt Gottfried for this email
correspondence.
[6] P. Hut and M. Rees, How stable is our vacuum?, Nature 302, 508-509
(1983).
[7] P. Hut, Is it safe to disturb the vacuum?, Nucl. Phys. A 418, 301c311c (1984).
[8] R. Jaffe et al., Review of Speculative Disaster Scenarios at RHIC,
archived at www.arxiv.org/abs/hep-ph/9910333v2.Further minor alterations were
made for the final published version: Rev. Mod. Phys. 72, 1125-1140 (2000), archived atwww.arxiv.org/abs/hep-ph/9910333v3,
[9] See for example Black Holes at Brookhaven?, letter to the Editors,
Scientific American, July 1999, p.5; Big Bang machinecould destroy Earth, article
in The Sunday Times (London), 18.7.99, p.26.
[10] Apocalypse Deferred, Scientific American, December 1999.
[11] Black Hole Ate My Planet, New Scientist, 28 August 1999, pp. 2427.
[12] Committee Report on Speculative Disaster Scenarios at RHIC:
synopsis, J. Marburger, 6.10.99. Archived for some while at
http://www.bnl.gov/bnlweb/rhicreport.html.
[13] S. Glashow and R. Wilson, Taking serious risks seriously, Nature
402, 596-597 (1999).
[14] A. Kent, Problems with empirical bounds for strangelet production
at RHIC, hep-ph/0009130.
373

[15] Gambling with the Earth, New Scientist 7.10.00, p. 4.


[16] Board Statement on Radiological Protection Objectives for the Landbased Disposal of Solid Radioactive Wastes, Documents of the NRPB 3, 3 (1992).
Abstract available at http://www.nrpb.org.uk/Absd3-3.htm
[17] C. Chapman and D. Morrison, Impacts on the Earth by asteroids and
comets: assessing the hazard, Nature 367, 33-40 (1994).
[18] F. Calogero, Might a laboratory experiment now being planned destroy planet Earth?, Interdisciplinary Science Reviews 25,191-202 (2000).

374

3.

375

E .

Eliezer Yudkowsky
Artificial Intelligence as a Positive and Negative Factor in Global Risk
2008
, .
: .. . (avturchin@mail.ru)
.
:
www.avturchin.narod.ru/ai.doc
: http://www.singinst.org/reading/corereading

1
()
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(Monod, 1974.) , , ,
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Michael Roy Ames, Eric Baum, Nick Bostrom, Milan Cirkovic, John K Clark, Emil
Gilliam, Ben Goertzel, Robin Hanson, Keith Henson, Bill Hibbard, Olie Lamb, Peter McCluskey
Michael Wilson , . ,
.

376

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.
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Bill Hibbard, , , , . :
http://www.ssec.wisc.edu/~billh/g/AIRisk_Reply.html.

:
http://yudkowsky.net/AIRisk_Hibbard.html. Hibbard ,
Hibbard (2001) Hibbard (2004). ,
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394

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The author thanks Robert J. Bradbury, J. Storrs Hall, James Logajan,
Markus Krummenacker, Thomas McKendree, Ralph C. Merkle, Christopher J.
Phoenix, Tihamer Toth-Fejel, James R. Von Ehr II, and Eliezer S. Yudkowsky for
helpful comments on earlier versions of this manuscript; J. S. Hall for the word
"aerovore"; and R. J. Bradbury for preparing the hypertext version of this document.
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475

476

477

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483

484

485

486

487

, . -,
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: ..
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Fermis Paradox
http://arxiv.org/ftp/physics/papers/0308/0308058.pdf
By
Milan M. irkovi
Astronomical Observatory Belgrade
Volgina 7, 11160 Belgrade
SERBIA AND MONTENEGRO
arioch@eunet.yu
Richard B. Cathcart
Geographos
1608 East Broadway, Suite #107
Glendale, California 91205-1524
UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
rbcathcart@msn.com
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502

.
SETI?
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DO POTENTIAL SETI SIGNALS NEED TO BE
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Richard A. Carrigan, Jr.
Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory
Box 500 MS221
Batavia, IL 60510 USA
carrigan@fnal.gov
http://home.fnal.gov/~carrigan/SETI/SETI%20Hacker_AC-03-IAA-8-306.doc

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1. Cocconi, G., Morrison, P.Searching for Interstellar Communications, Nature, 184, 844-846, 1959.
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4. For a contrary view see Ward, P., Brownlee, D. Rare Earth, Copernicus, Springer-Verlag, New York., 2000.
5. Sullivan, III, W., Brown, S., Wetherill, C., Eavesdropping: The Radio Signature of Earth, Science, 199, 377-388, 1978.
6. Cited in Sagan, C. et al., Carl Sagans Comic Connection, p. 236,
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, 2000.
7. Carrigan, R., Carrigan, N., The Siren Stars, serialized in Analog
Mar.-May, 1970, published by Pyramid, New York, 1971, Hoyle, F., Elliot, J., A
is for Andromeda, Souvenir Press Ltd., London, 1962.
8. Carrigan, Jr., R., The Ultimate Hacker: SETI signals may need to be
decontaminated, to be published in "Bioastronomy 2002: Life Amongst the Stars"
Astronomical Society of the Pacific IAU Symposium Series, 213, editors Norris,
R., Stootman, F, 2002.
9. See, for instance, Secker, J., Wesson, P, and Lepock, J., Astrophysical and biological constraints on radio panspermia, Journal of the Royal Astronomical Society of Canada, 90, 17:184-192, 1996.
10. Crevier. D., The tumultuous history of the search for AI, Basic
Books-Harper, New York, 1993.
11. Lesk,
M.,
in
comments
that
appear
at
http://www.lesk.com/mlesk/ksg97/ksg.html, 1997.
12. Leigh, D., An Interference-Resistant Search for Extraterrestrial Microwave Beacons, submitted to The Division of Engineering and Applied
Sciences, Harvard Ph.D. thesis, 1998. (http://seti.harvard.edu/grad/d_thes.html).
13. Nealson, K., et al., Mars Sample Return: Issues and Recommendations, Space Sciences Board of the National Academy of Sciences, Task Group on
512

Issues
in
Sample
Return,
1997.
<http://www.nationalacademies.org/ssb/mrsrnot.html>.
14. Billingham, J., Chairman, SETI Committee. Declaration of Principles Concerning Activities Following the Detection of Extraterrestrial Intelligence, International Academy of Astronautics Position Paper Annex, 1996.

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Global Risk. Forthcoming in Global Catastrophic Risks, eds. Nick Bostrom and
Milan Cirkovic, - UK, Oxford University Press, 2008.
10. . . , 1991.
11. B. Joy. Why the future doesn't need us. Wired. 2000.
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URL: http://www.aai.ee/~vladislav


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553

.

William Napier. Hazards from comets and asteroids
: Global Catastrophic Risks,
Edited by Nick Bostrom Milan M. Cirkovic
OXPORD UNIVERSITY PRESS, 2008
: ..

. . ,
. (1985)

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555

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557

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559

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, 3000
5 . .
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2001). ,
400,
25 ( .) 0.04
.
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,
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(Stokes et al., 2003)
, , , ,
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.
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, , .
(Table 11.1).
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561

25 .
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,
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, 567

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. 1000 60 000 (Morbidelli et al., 2002), ,
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. Hughes (2003) NEO, , 2002 . , 300 , 1000-
500-5000 .
568

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Mahuika . 1443 ..,
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. , ;
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.
:
Baillie, M.G.L. (1999). Exodus to Arthur (London: Batsford).

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Gehrels, T. (ed.) (1994). Hazards Due to Comets and Asteroids (Tucson:
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. ,
, .
Kneevic, Z. and Milani, A. (eds.) (2005). Dynamics of Populations of
Planetary Systems, Proc. IAU colloq. 197 (Cambridge: Cambridge University
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: ..

, Newhall and Self (1982)


, , VEI,
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). VEI=8
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,
. , , . (Palais and
Sigurdsson, 1989; Rampino and Self, 1984). VEI 3 6 ( <1 . .
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, , VEI=8 8 (Mason et al., 2004; Rampino, 2002; Rampino et
al., 1988; Sparks et al., 2005). ,
20 ,
, , , , ,
. , ,
574

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2005).
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(Ninkovich et al., 1978a, 1978b; Rampino and Self, 1993a; Rose and Chesner,
1990).
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,
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, ,
. , Rose
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,
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, to 2 x 1016 . 1.5 x 1015 . .

,
575

(Rampino and Self, 1982; Pinto et al.,


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, SO2
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. GISP2 , , , 71,100 5000 (Zielinski et al.,
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110 000 GISP2.
Zielinski . (1996a) ,
H2SO4 6- 0.7 4.4 x 1015 ,

. (Rampino and Self, 1992,1993a; Rose and Chesner, 1990).
( (aerosol loadings)
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, 70 000 .
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, ,

, .
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576

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.)

, , Turco .
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. 26 , 1-3 () , , ,
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,
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1815 .
1815, , (10-11 ) . 11C -3C (Stothers, 1984a). , ,
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577

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. , 1014 1015 .
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Pope . (1994), (, ) 4 17 ,
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.
,
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), , - , ,
.

Homo sapiens (Fedele et al., 2002).
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,
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578


(Rampino and Self, 1993a; Rampino et al., 1988).
, ,
. (e.g., Green et al.,
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.


. , , (~75%
), 1815,
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, 10%,
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.
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.

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.
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.
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580

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S. Ambrose, S. Self, R. Stothers, G. Zielinski .


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.

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