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Assignm ent Stats 250 W11 HW 4

Required Assignment Stats 250 W11 HW 4

Graded Point Total: 29 out of 30

Question 1 (Chapter 10)

Several years ago, New sweek conducted a survey of 508 teenagers (age 12-17) and asked questions regarding their thoughts on technology and its impact on their lives. Of the 236 boys surveyed, 156 stated they regularly go on-line. Of the 272 girls surveyed, 152 stated they regularly go on-line. a. Let p1 represent the population proportion for all such boys that regularly go on-line. Similarly, p 2 represents the population of all such girls that do so. Assuming that each sample is a random sample from the populations of interest and that the two samples are independent, verify the remaining conditions necessary for computing a confidence interval for p1 p 2 .

1 out of 1 points

Your Answer: n1 1, n1(1- 1), n2 2, n2(1- 2) should be preferably at least 10. 1 = 156/236 = .6610 n1 1 = .6601 * 236 = 156 n1(1- 1) = 236*(1-.6610) = 80 2 = 152/272 = .5588 n2 2 = 272* .5588 = 152 n2(1- 2) = 272*(1-.5588) = 120 n1 1, n1(1- 1), n2 2, n2(1- 2) are all greater than 10. Solution: The sample sizes are sufficiently large enough. For a confidence interval, we need to have that all of the quantities n 1 1 =156, n1 (1 we do!
1 ) =80, n2 2 =152, and n2 (1 2 ) =120 be at least 10. And

b. Construct a 95% confidence interval for the difference in these two population proportions, namely p 1 p2 .

3 out of 3 points

Your Answer: Standard Error: s e ( 1 2) = sqrt (( 1*(1 1)/n1)+( 2*(1 2)/ n2))

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Standard Error: s.e.( 1 = .0431 Confidence interval: =( 1 -

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2) = sqrt (( 1*(1- 1)/n1)+( 2*(1- 2)/ n2))

=sqrt((.6610*(1-.6610)/236)+(.5588*(1-.5588)/272))

2) +/- z*s.e.( 1 -

2)

=(.6610 - .5588) +/- 1.96 * .0431 =0.1022 +/- 0.084476 =(0.017724, 0.186676) Solution:

So the 95% confidence interval for the difference in population proportions (boys less girls) that go on-line regularly is: (0.0178, 0.1866) or 1.78% to 18.66%.

Question 2 (Chapter 10)

High School Sports The Department of Education w ants to estimate the difference in rates at which high school boys and girls participate in school sponsored sports. Let p1 represent the population proportion of all high school girls that participate in a school sport and let p2 represent the population proportion of all high school boys that participate in a school sport. Independent random samples were collected and the following results were obtained. Participate in Sports? Gender 1 = Girls 2 = Boys Yes 57 48 No 43 52 Total 100 100

a. Provide an estimate of p 1 , including an appropriate symbol for your answer.

1 out of 1 points

Your Answer: 1 = 57/100 = .57 Solution: Estimate of p1 is


1 = 57/100 = 0.57

b. A 95% confidence interval for the difference in population rates, p1 p2 , was calculated to be (-0.05, 0.23). In order for this confidence interval to be valid, certain conditions must apply. The problem states that the samples are independent random samples. Verify the remaining condition(s).

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1 out of 1 points

Your Answer: The remaining conditions are that n1 1, n1(1- 1), n2 2, n2(1- 2) should be preferably at least 10. 1 = 43/100 = .57 n1 1 = .57 * 100 = 57 n1(1- 1) = 100*(1-.57) = 43 2 = 48/100 = .48 n2 2 = 100* .48 = 48 n2(1- 2) = 100*(1-.48) = 52 n1 1, n1(1- 1), n2 2, n2(1- 2) are all greater than 10. Solution: In each sample, we need to see at least 10 yes responses and at least 10 no responses, so the verification is: All of the counts 57, 43, 48, and 52 are at least 10.

c.

True or False? There is a 95% chance that p1 p 2 is between -0.05 and 0.23. 1. True 2. False

0.5 out of 0.5 points


Solution: 2. False

d. True or False? With repeated samples of the same sizes, wed expect p1 p2 to fall between -0.05 and 0.23 roughly 95% of the time. 1. True 2. False

0.5 out of 0.5 points


Solution: 2. False

e. True or False? With repeated samples of the same sizes, wed expect 95% of the resulting intervals to contain p 1 p2 . 1. True 2. False

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0.5 out of 0.5 points


Solution: 1. True

f.

True or False? With 95% confidence, we would estimate the population proportion of all high school girls that participate in a school sport to be anywhere from 5% below to 23% above the corresponding proportion for all high school boys. 1. True 2. False

0.5 out of 0.5 points


Solution: 1. True

g. Compared to the 95% interval of (-0.05, 0.23), a 90% confidence interval would be Select one. 1. Wider 2. Narrower 3. Can't Decide

0.5 out of 0.5 points


Solution: 2. Narrower

h. Suppose you want to test the hypothesis H 0 : p1 = p2 versus Ha : p1 p 2 at the 5% level. Based on the confidence interval (-.05, .23), what would be your decision? Select one. 1. Reject H0 2. Fail to reject H 0 3. Can't Decide

1 out of 1 points

Solution: 2. Fail to reject H 0

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Question 3 (Chapter 12)

Comparing Treatment X and a Standard Treatment A researcher w ishes to compare the cure rate for an experimental treatment, Treatment X, and a Standard treatment. She recruits 300 patients and uses a 2:1 randomization, randomizing 200 to receive Treatment X and 100 patients to receive the Standard (because this randomization assigns more to the new treatment, the researcher can learn more about the safety aspects of Treatment X). After 6 months of treatment, the following cure rates are observed. Treatment X Standard Treatment # of patients cured n (number of patients) Cure Rate 98 200 0.49 38 100 0.38

a. Before creating the 95% confidence interval to estimate the difference p1 - p2 , where 1 = Treatment X and 2 = the Standard Treatment; it would be important to clearly understand an appropriate interpretation of these symbols. In general, p is a population proportion, but define the symbols further in the context of this real-world problem. [Fill in] Let p1 = ____________ and p2 = ____________.

2 out of 2 points

Your Answer: p1 = the population proportion of patients who recieved treatment x and was cured after 6 months. p2 = the population proportion of patients who recieved the standard treatment and was cured after 6 months. Solution: Let p1 = the population proportion of all patients cured after receiving Treatment X, and p2 = the population proportion of all patients cured after receiving Standard Treatment.

b. Construct a 95% confidence interval for the difference p1 - p 2 . 95% Confidence Interval: ( _________________ , _________________ )

3 out of 3 points

Your Answer:

Standard Error: s.e.( 1 = 0.0600 Confidence interval: =( 1 2) +/- z*s.e.( 1 -

2) = sqrt (( 1*(1- 1)/n1)+( 2*(1- 2)/ n2))

=sqrt((.49*(1-.49)/200)+(.38*(1-.38)/100))

2)

=(.49 - .38) +/- 1.96 * .0600 =0.11 +/- 0.1176

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=(-0.0076, 0.2276) Solution:

c.

According to the confidence interval in (b), does it appear that Treatment X has a significantly different cure rate than the Standard treatment? Choose: Yes -or- No and provide your rationale.

2 out of 2 points

Your Answer: No. Because the 95% confidence interval contains the value 0, we do not have sufficient evidence to conclude that Treatment X has a siginifcantly diffierent cure rate than the Standard treatment. Solution: No, the 95% confidence interval covers 0, so there is not a statistically significant difference in the cure rates for Treatment X versus the Standard treatment (at the 5% significance level).

Question 4 (Chapter 12)

Comparing Treatment X and a Standard Treatment The Next Analysis: A researcher w ishes to compare the cure rate for an experimental treatment, Treatment X, and a Standard treatment. She recruits 300 patients and uses a 2:1 randomization, randomizing 200 to receive Treatment X and 100 patients to receive the Standard (because this randomization assigns more to the new treatment, the researcher can learn more about the safety aspects of Treatment X). After 6 months of treatment, the follow ing cure rates are observed. Treatment X Standard Treatment # of patients cured n (number of patients) Cure Rate 98 200 0.49 38 100 0.38

The researcher also w ishes to test the following hypotheses: H0 : p1 = p2 versus Ha : p1 > p2 using a 5% level of significance. a. Note that if H 0 is true then p 1 = p2 =p, where p is the common population cure rate. Give an estimate of this common population proportion p. estimate of p = _____________________ .

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1 out of 1 points

Your Answer: = (n1 1 +n2 2) / (n1 + n2) = (200*.49 +100*.38) / 300 = .453 Solution:

The estimate of the common population proportion p is

= 0.4533.

b. Conduct the test of the hypotheses in part (a). Provide the test statistic and p-value (including a sketch of the p-value). Please show your work. Test Statistic Value = ________________ p-value: ______________________

5 out of 5 points

Your Answer: z = ( 1- 2) / sqrt( (1- )((1/n1)+(1/n2))) z = (.49-.38) / sqrt( .453(1-.453)((1/200)+(1/100)))

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z = 1.804

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Area for the left of z = 1.804 is .9641 p = 1-.9641 = .0359 Solution:

Test Statistic Value = 1.804281 p-value: 0.0359

c.

If H 0 is true what distribution allows for the calculation of a p -value?

0.5 out of 1 points


Your Answer:

Feedback: Those checks are for the CI scenario. In the HT case, we use phat from part a.

It is a random and independent sample, and that n1 1, n1(1- 1), n2 2, n2(1- 2) are all greater than 10. Model for the z test statistic under Ho is the standard normal (or N(0,1)) distribution was used to calculate the p-value. Solution: The N(0, 1) or standard normal distribution.

d. If H 0 is true what is the expected value of the test statistic?

0 out of 0.5 points


Your Answer: E(x)=px=.453(300)=135.9 Solution:

Feedback: This equation is for the binomial distribution. We have a normal distribution.

The expected value is the mean, which is 0.

e. Pick the appropriate statistical decision: Reject H0 -or- Fail to Reject H0

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0.5 out of 0.5 points


Your Answer: Reject Ho Solution: Reject H0

f.

Provide a conclusion in the context of this problem, i.e. regarding the comparison of Treatment X and the Standard treatment.

1 out of 1 points

Your Answer: There is sufficient evidence to support that the true proportion of patients who were cured after six months of Treatment X is greater than the true population proportion of patients cured after six months of the Standard treatment. Solution: We have sufficient evidence to conclude that the population proportion of patients cured after receiving Treatment X is larger than the population proportion of patients cured after receiving the standard treatment.

g. If the decision and conclusion in (e) and (f) are incorrect, it would be a (pick one) Type 1 -or- Type 2 error?

0.5 out of 0.5 points


Your Answer: Type 1 Solution: Type 1

h. Describe a consequence of such an error.

1 out of 1 points

Your Answer: We would conclude that treatment X is more beneficial than the standard treatment when in fact it is equal or less effective than the standard treatment. As a result of this error, patients may be encouraged to undergo treatment X, which could actually have the same or lower success rate than the standard treatment.

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Solution:

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Solution:

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If we reject the null hypothesis when it is actually true, we are incorrectly concluding that Treatment X results in a higher proportion of cured patients than the Standard Treatment. Since the reality is that there is no difference between the two treatments, the Type 1 error is likely to cause investment in a new drug that doesn?t work any better than the standard drug.

Question 5 (Chapter 12)

Reflection on the results of the previous tw o questions: "Comparing Treatment X and a Standard Treatment" and "Comparing Treatment X and a Standard Treatment - The Next Analysis". a. Compare the decision made in part (c) of the first question that was based on the confidence interval to the hypothesis test conclusion made in part (f) of the second question based on the large sample z test. Are the decisions the same? Pick one: 1. Yes 2. No

0.5 out of 0.5 points


Solution: 2. No

b. Fill in the blanks to provide an answer as to how (or why) this discrepancy could happen. A confidence interval is like conducting a ___________-sided test whereas the particular hypotheses being tested in Problem 2 is a ___________ - sided test.

1 out of 1 points

Your Answer: two, one (right) Solution: A confidence interval is like conducting a TWO-sided test whereas the particular hypotheses being tested in the 2nd problem is a ONE-sided test (to the right).

Question 6 (Chapter 12)

Watches Consider the follow ing hypotheses: H0 : The watch is w aterproof. Ha : The watch is not waterproof. Think about what would be a Type 1 and a Type 2 error for these hypotheses.

a. In this situation, which error would be worse? 1. Type 1 error

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2. Type 2 error

0.5 out of 0.5 points


Solution: 2. Type 2 error

b. Provide a brief sentence to explain the consequence(s) of such an error.

1 out of 1 points

Your Answer: A type 2 error would be to assume that the watch is waterproof when it actually is not. This could cause someone to go into water with the belief that it is waterproof, and break the watch because it is in fact not waterproof. Solution: Here Type 2 error means failing to reject the null hypothesis that the watch is waterproof when the alternative hypothesis is actually true, i.e. thinking the watch is waterproof when it really is not waterproof. As a consequence, the watch may be damaged if the buyer uses it as a waterproof watch after purchasing it.

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