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2005 57/8

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 57/8

........................................................................... 3
FIBO ................................................................................................................................. 5
TeleTRADE D.J. ............................................................................................................... 9
. MaBico. ........................................................... 11
................................................................................................ 12
... ForexTrader .............................................................. 13
ISIG Ltd ................................................................................................................... 18
EUR/USD 28.02.2005 ................................................................................................................ 23
4- Silver-channel ....................................................................... 27
, ! ................................................................................................... 34
........................................................................................ 38
................................................................................................................... 41
: " " ............................................... 43
........................................................................................................................................... 47
................................................................................................. 55
.................................................................................................................... 57
............................................................................................................................... 60
( 1) .................................................................................. 63

FOREX MAGAZINE

www.alpari.org
(095) 29-111-29

.
"FOREX MAGAZINE" .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 57/8

FOREX Review

(msk)

+1.5 %

28/02/2005

2.50

. (.) M/M

-0.8 %

28/02/2005

2.50

Y/Y

-0.7 %

-0.5 %

28/02/2005

13.00

HICP (.) Y/Y

+2.1 %

+2.1 %

28/02/2005

13.00

100.6

100.8

28/02/2005

13.00

+0.40

+0.40

28/02/2005

16.30

4 .

0.2%

0.2%

2004 , 1.6/2 .
3% , ,
. ,
. , ,
.
28/02/2005

16.30

M/M

+3.7 %

-2.7 %

28/02/2005

16.30

M/M

+0.8 %

+0.1 %

28/02/2005

18.00

1.098 .

1.130 .

28/02/2005

18.00

Chicago PMI

62.4

60.0

-3.8 %

-2.0 %

01/03/2005

2.30

Y/Y

01/03/2005

2.30

4.4 %

4.4 %

01/03/2005

11.55

M/M

+227,000

+100,000

01/03/2005

11.55

01/03/2005

12.00

PMI .

01/03/2005

12.30

CIPS .

01/03/2005

13.00

01/03/2005

13.00

HICP (.) Y/Y

01/03/2005

17.00

11.4 %

11.7 %

51.9

52.0

51.8

52.5

8.9 %

8.9 %

+2.1 %

+2.1 %

2.50%

2.50%


. , 2.5%
, .
, , , ,
.
, , . ,
. ,
, : " ".
01/03/2005

18.00

Y/Y

+1.1 %

01/03/2005

18.00

ISM .

56.4

+0.5 %
57.0

02/03/2005

13.00

(.) Q/Q

4 .

+0.2 %

+0.2 %

02/03/2005

13.00

(.) Y/Y

4 .

+1.6 %

+1.6 %

02/03/2005

18.00

. ,
- .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 57/8

03/03/2005

12.00

PMI .

52.6

03/03/2005

12.30

CIPS .

55.9

56.0

03/03/2005

15.45

2.00 %

2.00 %

03/03/2005

16.30

- .

03/03/2005

16.30

. (., . .) M/M

4 .

+0.8 %

+1.3 %

03/03/2005

16.30

. (.) M/M

4 .

+2.3 %

+1.8 %

03/03/2005

16.30

21-26.02

312,000

310,000

03/03/2005

18.00

ISM .

59.2

60.0

04/03/2005

13.00

M/M

+0.2 %

+0.7 %

04/03/2005

13.00

Y/Y

+0.5 %

+1.0 %

04/03/2005

14.00

. M/M

+7.1 %

-3.0 %

04/03/2005

14.00

. Y/Y

+12.1 %

+7.0 %

04/03/2005

16.30

/ M/M

+146,000

+225,000

04/03/2005

16.30

5.2 %

5.3 %

04/03/2005

16.30

M/M

+0.2 %

+0.3 %

04/03/2005

16.30

33.7

33.8

04/03/2005

17.45

Michigan Sentiment (.)

94.2

94.9

18.00

. M/M

+0.3 %

0.0 %

04/03/2005
M/M
Q/Q
Y/Y

53.0

www.forexreview.ru
Forex Magazine

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 57/8

FIBO

FOREX FIBO
" "
.

,

.
, ,

.
, ,
.
, , , , .

, 82.35,
61.8% Fibonacci retracement 80.40 85.44. ,

, ,
,
.
, ,
. ,
" ".

, "

,

. , , , ".
,
.


.
104.0 105.1 ,
. 116.4 112.1 .
, ,
.
9,000 312,000
, 3,250 308,500,
. , ,
41 .

0.9% ,
0.1%.
. ,
0.8%, 0.4%. ,
,
2.9% 1.4% .
. .
0.1%, 6.80
. .
3.7 , 3.9 . .

2004 3.8% 3.1%
.
, - 51 .(45.8)
+14.0%(10.3%).
.
2.4%,
3.9%. 4.2% (4.6%).

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

FIBO

, 50 , .
, , , .
.

,
84.00,
.
83.55,
38.2% Fibonacci retracement 85.44 82.35.
.

. , , .
, EZ ,
EUR/USD 1.3270 1.3050.
,
Ifo
95.5. 96.4 , ,
, . Ifo ,
.
2005 1.2%,
. 104.0 86.6 105 88.7 . , 9.9%
10.0%, .

, 1.5%
, 0.6%. EZ 44 . ,

2005 57/8

11.7 . . , 1.3667,
.
2.7 . 1.7 .
.
EZ 5.7 . 2.7
. . EZ, 8.8%
17.0% 2003 . , , ,
.
EZ ,
-,
, , . -
.
1.3310
1.3667,
1.3270.
EUR/USD 1.3050
1.2732,
EUR/USD
1.3140,
, 1.3050 1.2940.
.
, . 0.7%,
2003 2.9% 2.8%,
.
,
.
+19 +10 .
2005
2.7% 2.5% .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

FIBO

2005 57/8

,
4.75% . ,
, - .
, Rightmove 2.3%
11.1% . , , . 11.64 . ,
14.23 ., 31,285
40,201. 1.1 .
0.8 . , .

1.9150, 1.9400
,
.
1.9240, 1.9300
.

GBP/USD,
. , GBP/USD
. , , ,
,
. , ,

,
.
.
, - , -

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

FIBO

103.85 .

, . ,

,
.
, 2.2% .
0.3%
. 0.5%. 0.8%
, 0.5%. ,
.
59.9%
, - 11.5%, "" 3.2%.
- .

2005 57/8

105.00.
. USD/JPY , .
USD/JPY .
106.00
, , , 107.30,
110.00.
, -
.
USD/
JPY 104.30 103.40.


FIBO GROUP
(095) 780 30 53 (52)
http://www.fibo-forex.ru

, Nikkei USD/JPY

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

TeleTRADE D.J.

2005 57/8

TeleTRADE D.J.
.
FOREX , . ,
, .
, ,
.
USD/
JPY.
,
, . , ,
, .

.
. ,
.
USD/JPY 180 , Y105.60 Y103.80,
Y105.20, Y104.60.
EUR/
USD. $1.3050 $1.3265 - .
, . 4,2 . 2004 ., 2,7
. 2004 .


. ,


2005 104,0 105,1 2004 .

. .
,
,

.
, ,
.
USD/JPY 103.90 104.90.
, ,
.
+0.201 . +1.140 . .
,

,
.
EUR/USD 90 ,
1.3275, 12 , 1.3185.

. IFO .
.
95.5
96.4 . , ,
.

9-10
. ,

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 57/8

TeleTRADE D.J.

8-1 .
( )
25 . .
-
.
,
.
0.1%
-0.1% .

2005 0.2% .
. 0.25%
. ,
.
,

, .

, , .
,
2005 , . , , 2005
0,9% 1,4% .
USD/JPY 100 Y104.60 105.60. ,
,

. $52
.

10

EUR/USD,
1.3270,
1.3170-1.3270.
.
IV 2004 . 3,8% 2003 .
, , ,
, 4%.
28.02 - 04.03
.
:
;
PMI ;
ISM
;


,
0.25% 2.75%.
, .
$50
.
,
-
Teletrade D.J.
e-mail: analitics@trust-com.ru

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 57/8

. MaBico.

.
MaBico.
,


.
1,3270-1,33. 1,3
,
, (
)
.
, ,

, .

, . ,
,
. 2004 - 617,7 .
, 25 2003 .
,
. $4,92 , 1991 . .
- $100,2 . 2004 . $1,76 .
2004 . $162 . 26% . 2004 .
, .

:
10 20 .
- 0 10 .
- 1 7 .
- 12 -7 .
- 4 2 .
,
.

4 2004 . 3,8
% 4 2004 , 3 2004 . ,
3,7%.
,
1,3270-1,33 ,
.
,
www.mabico.ru , "" http://www.mabico.ru/ru/news/stats/.
.
www. Mabico.ru

Forex Magazine


.
. 2004 , 28 . $
. : 61, 3
. $ 89,3 . $ .

, 50 $ .
Light - 51 $ .

11

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 57/8


Dow Jones Newswires,

/DJ FOREX/ -- , .
, 1,90
, ,
.
" 1,9350-1,94 ", -
,
.
,
, 2,000 .
,
.

, , , 5
.
.
,
. 1997 ,
- ,
.
- .
"
", - ,
- Bear Stearns International .
, . ,
3%
2% ,
,
.

2,000 ,
.
- ,
,
- .
, , ,
.
- ,
, ,
.

, "", , .
,
25
, ,
.
"
25 10 1 4", -
, .
, , 4,75%, , .
, , , ,
, .
Dow Jones Newswires
www.djforex.ru
Forex Magazine

" , ", - , , ,

12

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 57/8

... ForexTrader


- -
(www.forextrader.ru),
,

. -
, Forex.

FOREX
28.02.-04.03.2005


FOREX, MSK

10:00-15:00
16-30-22-30

11:55-15:00
18:00-22:00

12:00-16:00
18:00-22:00

12:00-16:00
16:30-23:00

13:00-15:00
16:30-22:30

, . : . , " , ...
". , , ,
. , . , ,
.

13

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

ForexTrader

2005 57/8

EUR

16-30-18-00
. 16-30 4 .
11-55-13-00 - . 17 - .
( )
, CAD. 18-00
.
18-00
+ . !!!!.
- 12-00-12-30 - . 15-45 - EZ. 16-30
.. 16-30-18-00
.
- 13-00-14-00 - EZ. C
16-30-18-00
,
.
, .

, 4 , : 1.2420-1,1685
1,1000. 4 , 5 .
5 - 1.5585-1.7560.

: 4 1,2445.
5- - 1,3770-1,4415.
- .

14

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

ForexTrader

2005 57/8

CHF

27.02.05.


4
1,2385-1,2890, - 5
0,3132. ,
3 1,0445
4 .

. 5
1,2385-1,2890.

CHF 27.02.05.

15

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 57/8

ForexTrader

GBP

, 4 1.8195 -1.7439 1,6545.


- 5
2,1605-2,3700.

-
4 1,8285-50,
.

JPY

GBP 27.02.05.

16

, , 3 , 96,00.
.
4 109,00-117,60. - 5
89,35-77,25.

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

ForexTrader

JPY
.

2005 57/8

JPY 27.02.05.
,
FOREXTRADER.RU
E-mail: trader_karlo@mail.ru

- ,
FOREXTRADER http://www.forextrader.ru/ .

17

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

ISIG Ltd

2005 57/8


International Service Invest Group Ltd
1.EUR, Weekly

EURUSD 3- .
. I , II III
.
III
5 . 5-

III . 5

1.3010 1.4375 ,
EUR
5- .
EUR, Daily

EURUSD

5 .
5 . 4

, 50-61.8% 3.
, ,
.
- 1.3660->1.3880.

18

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

ISIG Ltd

2005 57/8

EUR, 240
4
,

,
: 1.3350->1.3420.

2.GBP, Weekly

GBPUSD 5-
III . 5
2.0000

19

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

ISIG Ltd

2005 57/8

GBP, Daily

5
.
4 50-61.8
% 3 . 5
5
1.9615.

GBP, 240 min


4
,

,
1.90501.9225,
5
.

20

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

ISIG Ltd

2005 57/8

3.CAD, Weekly

USDCAD 5-
III . 5
1.1940-1.1180

CAD, Daily

5
.
4 50 %
3

5,

1.1450-1.1180

21

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

ISIG Ltd

2005 57/8

CAD, 240 min



( A-B-C )
4 .

1.2425-1.2580 ,
4

.


1 2,

, 61.8%
1.
3 - 1.2150.
International Service Invest Group Ltd.
33 Jabotinsky St., Twin Tower 1,
Ramat-Gan 52511, Israel
www.isig-trade.ru
E-mail : admin@isig-trade.com

22

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 57/8

EUR/USD 28.02.2005

28 2005
(A_Vlad) www.viac.ru

( 1)

, .
22.02.05,
. , ..
.
.

23

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

EUR/USD 28.02.2005

2005 57/8

( 2)

,
, .
, LB
1.3184. LB U1,
D1 1.3175.
4 . 2
, 1,3145, .
, 3,8% 3,7%,
. 1,3239. ?
. ,
Lacker .
(NonFarm PayRolls).
, ,
, .
, .. ,
1 .
. 1,3350
1,3250.

24

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

EUR/USD 28.02.2005

2005 57/8

, U2 1.3305 U3 1.3356.
. , 1,3309
61,8% . 1.3667 (31.12.04) 1.2730(08.02.05) = 937 * 0,618 = 579 +
1.2730 = 1.3309, 4. 1,3309 1,3260
, . ,
, 1,3260 / 1,3309, 1,3356 .
. ,
1,3100, 1,3070,
. 1,3260 , 1,3150.
Chicago PMI ,
Olson . ,
.

25

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

EUR/USD 28.02.2005

2005 57/8

, . , 5 .
, ( ) 080205 ( ) 240205.
,
10.03.05. ,
1,3360 1,3380 .
1,3309 1,3356, 61,8% (13309) , 1,3360.
, 1,3385.


, www.viac.ru
. ,
A_Vlad, _Vlad,
.
,
e-mail: a_vlad@viac.ru

26

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

4- Silver-channel

2005 57/8

EURUSD
: .
Silver-high 1,3268. Up-.
: -
.
1,3262 - .
4-:
- .
Sky-high 1,3180,
Future-high 1,3606 Silver-low
1,3027 .

EURJPY
: Skyhigh 139,22 - .
: ,
-
. Futurehigh 139,58 - .
4-: , Sky-high 138,46
,
- .

27

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

4- Silver-channel

2005 57/8

EURCHF
: , . Silver-high 1.5420
1,5354
: , - .
4-: ,
- . .
. .

EURGBP
:
0,6906. - .
: ,

0,6914, 0,6911 Silver-low
0,6898.
.
4-: . .

28

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

4- Silver-channel

2005 57/8

AUDUSD
: ,
, .
: - .
.
4-: - -. 0,7887
Future-high 0,8079 Silverlow 0,7793 .

GBPUSD
: .
Sky-high 1,9112
: ,
- . Future-high .
4-: .

. .
MACD.

29

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

4- Silver-channel

2005 57/8

GBPCHF
: , -
- .
: Silver-low 2,2345
.
4-: - .
2,2262 Sky-high 2,2528
Zen 2,2080. ,
2,2354 - ,
2,2370.

GBPJPY
: .
- .
: .
- .
4 :
- . Sky-high 200,68
,
.

30

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

4- Silver-channel

2005 57/8

USDCAD
:
1,2479, .
.
: .
,
Sky-high
1,2479 Silver-high 1,2414
4-: . .

USDCHF
: .
.
:
1,1683 - .
4-:
- down-trend. .

31

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

4- Silver-channel

2005 57/8

USDJPY
:
- .
: . Silver-high
105,13
104,58
104,83 Silverhigh 105,12
4-: - . ,
- . .

32

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

4- Silver-channel

2005 57/8

GOLD
: Silver-high
433,12 - .
: - .
436,86
4-: - .
.

Gbobr ( ), AlexSilver
Forex Magazine
, , Forex,
Silver-channel (11 -)
" 11 ,
"
Silver-channel
Silver-channel Daily
!
Silver-channel Weekly
AlexSilver
CFD
www.viac.ru
Silver-channel
- " Silver-channel"
Silver-channel
, . . .

33

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

, !

2005 57/8

, !

.
22 WTI
NYMEX $2.8, , 2000 .
, $50.00, , $51.15 .


.
,
, ,
,

. . , , .


WTI,
- , $2.41
$51.42 .

. ""
$1.89 $48.62
.
,

-
. ,

.
-

. , ,

34

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

, !

,
, .
, . OPEC, 16
.
, . ,
, $22-$28 ,
2000. , .
, ,
$50 , OPEC .
,
OPEC ,
. ,
600000 b/
d. 11 OPEC 29.8 .
, 29.2 . b/d .

. , OPEC,
9.45 . b/d, 400000 b/d , .

,
,
.
OPEC 16 .

-
.
, . ,
$47.00-$50.00 .
,
. ,
, -

35

2005 57/8

. EIA
, 18 ,
600000 297 . .
22.5 . , . 1.8 . 223.5 .
. 18.3 . ,
, .
700000 111.8 . . 18
4.1 . ,
,
. , , , 1.1 . 69.7
. . , , 300000 41.1 .
. 3.3 .
, ,
.
" ".
, .
, , 18 , 8.9%
, EIA
215.8
. , 11.4% ,
. , EIA ,
.
,
,
$50.40 . , , . ,
.
, 100 , $51.49 . 5.1%,
, OPEC.

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

, !

, .
, $55 ,
$60 ,
. EIA,
.
,
,
, .
, "" $2.064 , 24
2004., , 1981. 1.417, $3.08 .
EIA 21 $1.905 ,
22 , ,
- .
, ,
, .
,
.
,
: ;
; ; .

2005 57/8

,
.
,
, 30 . ,

8.5 .
, :
, , , ,
.
$2.064 , WTI
, , $53.00-$55.00 .
, , ,
, .
10
(IEA) , 2004. 3.4% 82.5 . ,
1976 .
IEA,
1.8% 84.0 . .
, . , , ,
$47.00-$48.00.
, -
,
, .
, ,
.
$51.50-$52.00.

. 1 , http://www.doe.gov

36

,
-293 $1.2545 . ,
$51.50, . - , -

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

, !

2005 57/8

.
, , .
$47.00-$48.00 . ,

.
Sell
$51.50 WTI .
.
$52.50 .
48.00-$49.00 . , $49.00 . - , .

Forex Magazine
E-mail: bauer@viac.ru

37

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 57/8


www.bloomberg.com


"Bloomberg News"
,
.
.
, , "-" , , , .

1- 2 , .
" ""
""
",
.
- ,
,

, .
,

, . ,

,
.


,
. ,

38

, ,
- .
, ,
. , ,
, .
,
, , ,

, ,
. .
, ,
, .
,
. - , ,
, -, .
,
, , .


, ,


- .
, , -
, , .

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 57/8


:
, " ,

, , ,
".

, ",
, ,
, ,
,

", .
" ,
, ,
, , . ,
,
, , , ", .
,
. 21 ,
, .

, ,
, . 2003 .

39

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

,
, :
" , . , , , , 20 , ,
, "" ".

2005 57/8

.
,
, , , ,
, .
Forex Magazine
www.bloomberg.com

" ,
- ,
, , - ".

" ,
, , ,
. - ,
, ,
- .
" ,
, ", .
, " ", - .
, ,

,
.
-

40

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 57/8

www.forexnews.com

, 22 ,

,
,
.


, ,
, .

,
, 2004. 69 . $


. , , , , 1.3 . $
. 625 . $ 2003. - .
2004. ( ) 600 . $. - , 10% 3% . 2

. , ,
12-15%
25%. - 5050% .

, -
1.5-1.7 , ,
.

41

845 . $
711 . $
(36% ) 2004. 0.4%, . -

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 57/8


2002. , 700 , , ,
18%- - 3 .
,
. 104
100 28 .
$ "". 97 , 51 . $. , 10-15%
, ,
,
.

Forex Magazine
www.forexnews.co

42

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

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FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 57/8




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2005 57/8

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56

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 57/8


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FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

2005 57/8




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62

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

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63

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

( 1)

2005 57/8

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64

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

( 1)

2005 57/8

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65

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

( 1)

2005 57/8

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66

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

( 1)

2005 57/8

Discount rate ( ) : , . .

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67

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

( 1)

2005 57/8

.2 (federal funds rate) ( - 2005 ).


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68

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005

( 1)

2005 57/8

.3 (Refinancing tender rate) .


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69

FOREX MAGAZINE 2004-2005