x

-3
-2.95
-2.9
-2.85
-2.8
-2.75
-2.7
-2.65
-2.6
-2.55
-2.5
-2.45
-2.4
-2.35
-2.3
-2.25
-2.2
-2.15
-2.1
-2.05
-2
-1.95
-1.9
-1.85
-1.8
-1.75
-1.7
-1.65
-1.6
-1.55
-1.5
-1.45
-1.4
-1.35
-1.3
-1.25
-1.2
-1.15
-1.1
-1.05
-1
-0.95
-0.9
-0.85

Tail Expectation(y|X>x)
Tail Expectation(y|X<x)
0.004437839
-3.283098655
0.005150825
-3.236666351
0.005963659
-3.19031514
0.006887823
-3.14404752
0.007935728
-3.097866081
0.00912074
-3.051773508
0.01045719
-3.005772586
0.011960379
-2.959866203
0.013646579
-2.914057353
0.01553301
-2.868349144
0.017637825
-2.822744798
0.019980068
-2.777247659
0.022579628
-2.731861196
0.025457179
-2.686589008
0.028634113
-2.641434831
0.032132454
-2.596402539
0.035974766
-2.551496153
0.04018405
-2.506719847
0.04478363
-2.462077951
0.049797033
-2.417574959
0.055247863
-2.373215533
0.061159663
-2.329004512
0.067555785
-2.284946915
0.074459243
-2.241047953
0.081892585
-2.197313028
0.089877746
-2.153747747
0.09843592
-2.110357922
0.107587433
-2.067149584
0.11735162
-2.024128985
0.127746716
-1.981302606
0.13878975
-1.938677167
0.15049646
-1.896259628
0.162881208
-1.854057202
0.175956921
-1.812077359
0.189735035
-1.770327832
0.204225459
-1.728816627
0.219436546
-1.687552025
0.235375086
-1.646542589
0.252046307
-1.605797172
0.269453884
-1.56532492
0.287599971
-1.525135276
0.306485233
-1.485237986
0.326108894
-1.445643098
0.346468788
-1.406360971

0.998523
0.998257
0.997948
0.997589
0.997174
0.996694
0.996142
0.995507
0.994779
0.993946
0.992994
0.991911
0.99068
0.989283
0.987703
0.98592
0.983911
0.981653
0.97912
0.976285
0.973119
0.96959
0.965665
0.961309
0.956484
0.95115
0.945266
0.938787
0.931667
0.923858
0.91531
0.905969
0.895781
0.884691
0.872638
0.859564
0.845406
0.8301
0.813582
0.795784
0.776639
0.756077
0.734029
0.710424

-4

-0.8
-0.75
-0.7
-0.65
-0.6
-0.55
-0.5
-0.45
-0.4
-0.35
-0.3
-0.25
-0.2
-0.15
-0.1
-0.05
-1E-14
0.05
0.1
0.15
0.2
0.25
0.3
0.35
0.4
0.45
0.5
0.55
0.6
0.65
0.7
0.75
0.8
0.85
0.9
0.95
1
1.05
1.1
1.15
1.2
1.25
1.3
1.35
1.4
1.45
1.5

0.367561425
0.389382057
0.41192475
0.435182466
0.459147137
0.48380975
0.509160434
0.535188535
0.561882704
0.589230977
0.617220854
0.645839371
0.67507318
0.704908612
0.735331749
0.766328479
0.797884561
0.829985675
0.862617472
0.89576562
0.929415848
0.963553979
0.998165969
1.033237932
1.068756172
1.104707203
1.14107777
1.17785487
1.21502576
1.252577976
1.290499339
1.328777965
1.367402269
1.406360971
1.445643098
1.485237986
1.525135276
1.56532492
1.605797172
1.646542589
1.687552025
1.728816627
1.770327832
1.812077359
1.854057202
1.896259628
1.938677167

-1.367402269
-1.328777965
-1.290499339
-1.252577976
-1.21502576
-1.17785487
-1.14107777
-1.104707203
-1.068756172
-1.033237932
-0.998165969
-0.963553979
-0.929415848
-0.89576562
-0.862617472
-0.829985675
-0.797884561
-0.766328479
-0.735331749
-0.704908612
-0.67507318
-0.645839371
-0.617220854
-0.589230977
-0.561882704
-0.535188535
-0.509160434
-0.48380975
-0.459147137
-0.435182466
-0.41192475
-0.389382057
-0.367561425
-0.346468788
-0.326108894
-0.306485233
-0.287599971
-0.269453884
-0.252046307
-0.235375086
-0.219436546
-0.204225459
-0.189735035
-0.175956921
-0.162881208
-0.15049646
-0.13878975

0.685189
0.658252
0.629539
0.598978
0.566494
0.532013
0.495461
0.456765
0.415851
0.372645
0.327075
0.279068
0.228552
0.175457
0.119713
0.06125
1.28E-14
0.06125
0.119713
0.175457
0.228552
0.279068
0.327075
0.372645
0.415851
0.456765
0.495461
0.532013
0.566494
0.598978
0.629539
0.658252
0.685189
0.710424
0.734029
0.756077
0.776639
0.795784
0.813582
0.8301
0.845406
0.859564
0.872638
0.884691
0.895781
0.905969
0.91531

1.55
1.6
1.65
1.7
1.75
1.8
1.85
1.9
1.95
2
2.05
2.1
2.15
2.2
2.25
2.3
2.35
2.4
2.45
2.5
2.55
2.6
2.65
2.7
2.75
2.8
2.85
2.9
2.95
3

1.981302606
2.024128985
2.067149584
2.110357922
2.153747747
2.197313028
2.241047953
2.284946915
2.329004512
2.373215533
2.417574959
2.462077951
2.506719847
2.551496153
2.596402539
2.641434831
2.686589008
2.731861196
2.777247659
2.822744798
2.868349144
2.914057353
2.959866203
3.005772586
3.051773508
3.097866081
3.14404752
3.19031514
3.236666351
3.283098655

-0.127746716
-0.11735162
-0.107587433
-0.09843592
-0.089877746
-0.081892585
-0.074459243
-0.067555785
-0.061159663
-0.055247863
-0.049797033
-0.04478363
-0.04018405
-0.035974766
-0.032132454
-0.028634113
-0.025457179
-0.022579628
-0.019980068
-0.017637825
-0.01553301
-0.013646579
-0.011960379
-0.01045719
-0.00912074
-0.007935728
-0.006887823
-0.005963659
-0.005150825
-0.004437839

0.923858
0.931667
0.938787
0.945266
0.95115
0.956484
0.961309
0.965665
0.96959
0.973119
0.976285
0.97912
0.981653
0.983911
0.98592
0.987703
0.989283
0.99068
0.991911
0.992994
0.993946
0.994779
0.995507
0.996142
0.996694
0.997174
0.997589
0.997948
0.998257
0.998523

Chart Title
1.2
1
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0
-4

-3

-2

-1

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42

Sample
Abs
1.716421 -1.71642
-0.0919
-0.0919
0.255958 -0.25596
-0.92006 -0.92006
-0.00047 -0.00047
-0.70414 -0.70414
-0.58397 -0.58397
0.225256 -0.22526
-1.26714 -1.26714
0.655013 -0.65501
-0.23513 -0.23513
-0.55109 -0.55109
0.592196
-0.5922
0.020295
-0.0203
-0.03955 -0.03955
-0.60411 -0.60411
0.66947 -0.66947
-0.1365
-0.1365
-0.9854
-0.9854
-1.19223 -1.19223
-0.78187 -0.78187
-0.34381 -0.34381
0.455707 -0.45571
-0.39366 -0.39366
0.409387 -0.40939
1.119945 -1.11995
0.14498 -0.14498
-0.21335 -0.21335
0.392753 -0.39275
-0.41289 -0.41289
0.699773 -0.69977
0.13789 -0.13789
0.257405 -0.25741
-0.07571 -0.07571
0.741449 -0.74145
-0.62004 -0.62004
1.064674 -1.06467
0.804924 -0.80492
0.582278 -0.58228
-0.95632 -0.95632
0.691714 -0.69171
-0.719
-0.719

Cash
0.095561
0.740314
0.642397
0.318148
0.797582
0.410032
0.466978
0.66023
0.199179
0.432819
0.654469
0.483262
0.462951
0.785009
0.772881
0.457149
0.426041
0.713065
0.293037
0.221865
0.375389
0.592664
0.532184
0.565312
0.556821
0.245308
0.707937
0.667206
0.565806
0.554937
0.412029
0.712223
0.641562
0.75032
0.393186
0.449458
0.264269
0.365452
0.467809
0.304056
0.41573
0.403272

0.947262
0.11043
0.284918
0.743057
0.000595
0.631984
0.55566
0.254387
0.864164
0.602127
0.264311
0.53279
0.561245
0.025202
0.048676
0.56924
0.611103
0.160671
0.770785
0.843104
0.675622
0.36713
0.461293
0.410505
0.423705
0.820321
0.169981
0.242294
0.409733
0.426617
0.629404
0.162202
0.286334
0.091653
0.653469
0.579748
0.801144
0.687749
0.554504
0.758758
0.624604
0.640666

100
271.2955
275.1369
308.6437
376.974
376.9322
384.5265
429.4921
467.4565
633.5616
687.1596
678.8083
739.7217
771.8193
771.9702
769.2221
841.7196
890.9727
877.3333
861.3913
895.9889
925.5856
954.938
994.1189
1027.085
996.9779
1076.956
1083.047
1097.733
1130.743
1178.211
1213.576
1211.638
1221.176
1228.665
1317.634
1415.305
1436.115
1451.427
1536.743
1661.789
1749.903

Bet
94.72618
11.04301
28.49182
74.30571
0.059484
63.19842
55.56605
25.43868
86.41638
60.21271
26.43111
53.27897
56.12451
2.520188
4.8676
56.92405
61.11028
16.06714
77.07851
84.31045
67.56225
36.71298
46.12926
41.05049
42.37048
82.03205
16.99814
24.22943
40.97327
42.66167
62.94043
16.22023
28.63343
9.165343
65.34691
57.9748
80.11436
68.77485
55.45042
75.87579
62.46041
64.06662

Cash
100
280.8323
315.6182
433.2197
525.178
454.8117
466.8284
547.7511
696.9903
889.2051
978.2195
946.6232
1060.952
1118.142
1124.126
1067.67
1195.028
1275.625
1190.735
1170.052
1211.088
1254.895
1334.846
1419.783
1500.088
1429.032
1526.529
1562.362
1622.973
1703.538
1814.804
1870.992
1859.041
1892.352
1974.068
2110.217
2278.688
2304.663
2326.928
2480.788
2645.591
2786.663

Bet
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100

43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89

-0.39297
-0.3446
-0.33098
-0.45029
-0.72177
-0.92115
-2.13117
-0.38627
1.113961
-0.58404
-1.38426
1.015375
0.563786
1.617135
-0.35689
1.494486
0.213253
-1.68808
-0.84744
-0.67879
-0.65548
-0.31779
-0.95978
-0.06868
1.217475
1.072371
-0.22352
0.850971
1.172189
0.797308
-0.69838
2.751906
1.849074
0.315723
-0.82736
-0.31206
-1.63171
-0.14725
-0.39772
-1.11932
1.787624
0.371051
-0.68919
1.337085
-0.24224
-1.04156
-0.95375

-0.39297
-0.3446
-0.33098
-0.45029
-0.72177
-0.92115
-2.13117
-0.38627
-1.11396
-0.58404
-1.38426
-1.01538
-0.56379
-1.61714
-0.35689
-1.49449
-0.21325
-1.68808
-0.84744
-0.67879
-0.65548
-0.31779
-0.95978
-0.06868
-1.21747
-1.07237
-0.22352
-0.85097
-1.17219
-0.79731
-0.69838
-2.75191
-1.84907
-0.31572
-0.82736
-0.31206
-1.63171
-0.14725
-0.39772
-1.11932
-1.78762
-0.37105
-0.68919
-1.33708
-0.24224
-1.04156
-0.95375

0.565686
0.592221
0.599806
0.535038
0.402024
0.317716
0.041869
0.569331
0.247317
0.466943
0.166923
0.281941
0.476941
0.113935
0.585422
0.140048
0.667265
0.100563
0.347531
0.421704
0.432597
0.607189
0.302734
0.754685
0.214038
0.261574
0.661245
0.346067
0.228212
0.368718
0.412667
0.009073
0.074592
0.608351
0.355927
0.610414
0.111088
0.706564
0.563115
0.245517
0.083817
0.577638
0.416891
0.179448
0.650334
0.272464
0.305045

0.40992
0.367843
0.355589
0.456993
0.642261
0.743544
0.980733
0.404214
0.81832
0.555709
0.89239
0.782674
0.541723
0.934182
0.378741
0.914319
0.242191
0.943777
0.709172
0.616804
0.602423
0.343565
0.760212
0.083409
0.850481
0.803909
0.252633
0.710897
0.837038
0.683782
0.628579
0.996714
0.961224
0.341664
0.699206
0.338283
0.936259
0.172465
0.413932
0.820112
0.955213
0.39112
0.623093
0.881672
0.271399
0.79265
0.757669

1770.791
1772.774
1773.275
1769.033
1756.626
1743.82
1653.85
1824.979
1885.62
2024.571
1980.102
2194.243
2229.588
2172.525
2356.936
2427.055
2544.2
2590.249
2669.587
2681.547
2682.985
2703.328
2681.272
2749.014
2759.742
2772.083
2876.261
2903.406
2880.571
2911.95
3014.222
3231.1
3321.086
3468.476
3507.531
3543.562
3498.92
3637.903
3633.584
3603.714
3842.116
3977.429
4018.897
4145.153
4284.398
4262.705
4269.666

40.992
36.78431
35.55887
45.69931
64.22606
74.35438
98.07325
40.42139
81.83199
55.57087
89.23896
78.26736
54.17235
93.41822
37.87407
91.43193
24.21907
94.37773
70.91715
61.68043
60.24225
34.35653
76.02124
8.340891
85.04812
80.39095
25.26334
71.08974
83.70382
68.37825
62.85785
99.67139
96.12241
34.1664
69.92061
33.82833
93.62588
17.24651
41.39324
82.01124
95.52126
39.11202
62.30931
88.1672
27.1399
79.26495
75.76685

2819.266
2824.103
2825.466
2813.535
2786.387
2766.448
2645.446
2819.937
2969.96
3139.76
3059.738
3299.702
3344.861
3239.526
3436.929
3622.066
3750.19
3940.323
4024.388
4041.253
4043.583
4077.352
4013.154
4102.264
4230.879
4245.389
4374.979
4482.428
4450.306
4487.794
4637.363
4982.392
5072.675
5226.01
5340.319
5391.85
5259.884
5408.33
5383.283
5311.123
5601.817
5743.475
5849.499
6052.127
6210.06
6130.128
6138.91

100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100

90 -0.53567
91
0.103
92 -0.51301
93 -0.95098
94 1.56556
95 0.346686
96 0.515687
97 -0.49972
98 -0.98846
99 -1.85993
100 -0.17475

-0.53567
-0.103
-0.51301
-0.95098
-1.56556
-0.34669
-0.51569
-0.49972
-0.98846
-1.85993
-0.17475

0.491004
0.73349
0.502499
0.30611
0.124443
0.591066
0.501134
0.509306
0.291892
0.073046
0.690066

0.521754
0.123133
0.505174
0.756492
0.926365
0.369699
0.507156
0.495248
0.772022
0.962211
0.202067

4301.342
4334.665
4342.25
4320.125
4510.499
4623.411
4617.163
4668.66
4644.455
4577.175
4739.326

Plot

52.17543
12.31334
50.51742
75.64923
92.63651
36.96989
50.7156
49.52476
77.20222
96.22106
20.20666

6180.717
6244.584
6306.185
6262.389
6514.042
6635.929
6619.029
6720.57
6671.695
6584.548
6753.066

100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
100

Number of Simulation Runs

Simulation Time

12.43 sec.

5000

Average Value
Standard Deviation
Variance
Skewness
Kurtosis
Coefficient of Variation
Range
Range5_95
Minimum Value
Expected Tail <= 0.1%
0.01% - Quantile
0.02% - Quantile
0.03% - Quantile
0.04% - Quantile
0.05% - Quantile
0.06% - Quantile
0.07% - Quantile
0.08% - Quantile
0.09% - Quantile
0.1% - Quantile
0.2% - Quantile
0.3% - Quantile
0.4% - Quantile
0.5% - Quantile
0.6% - Quantile
0.7% - Quantile
0.8% - Quantile
0.9% - Quantile
1% - Quantile
2% - Quantile
3% - Quantile
4% - Quantile
5% - Quantile
10% - Quantile
20% - Quantile
30% - Quantile
40% - Quantile
50% - Quantile
60% - Quantile
70% - Quantile
80% - Quantile

Out: [kellycriterion.xlsx]Sheet2!H105
2.60953E+16
1.44857E+18
2.09837E+36
67.56726477
4672.880493
55.51081596
1.00759E+20
5.09147E+14
-4.97276E+16
-1.12194E+16
-4.97276E+16
-4.97276E+16
-3.34025E+15
-3.34025E+15
-1.30777E+15
-1.30777E+15
-9.96725E+14
-9.96725E+14
-7.24637E+14
-7.24637E+14
-5.72248E+13
-2.53505E+13
-1.88161E+13
-1.17651E+13
-5.2699E+12
-2.95508E+12
-1.91034E+12
-1.30966E+12
-1.03521E+12
-1.57074E+11
-31926976094
-12012124582
-4713004791
-111293376.6
-463186.8972
-4628.936617
-68.07917079
461065333
29898003068
4.24797E+11
3.49926E+12

90% - Quantile
95% - Quantile
96% - Quantile
97% - Quantile
98% - Quantile
99% - Quantile
99.1% - Quantile
99.2% - Quantile
99.3% - Quantile
99.4% - Quantile
99.5% - Quantile
99.6% - Quantile
99.7% - Quantile
99.8% - Quantile
99.9% - Quantile
99.91% - Quantile
99.92% - Quantile
99.93% - Quantile
99.94% - Quantile
99.95% - Quantile
99.96% - Quantile
99.97% - Quantile
99.98% - Quantile
99.99% - Quantile
Expected Tail >= 99.9%
Maximum Value

6.01648E+13
5.09143E+14
8.48194E+14
1.88879E+15
3.98593E+15
1.24824E+16
1.62276E+16
1.88006E+16
2.19331E+16
3.35591E+16
5.08062E+16
7.79728E+16
1.49436E+17
2.78032E+17
8.1961E+17
1.32711E+18
1.32711E+18
1.67582E+18
1.67582E+18
1.88983E+18
1.88983E+18
1.84395E+19
1.84395E+19
1.0071E+20
2.08102E+19
1.0071E+20

Out: [kellycriterion.xlsx]Sheet2!F105
4.38013E+13
1.04535E+15
1.09275E+30
40.94178389
1825.903861
23.86566937
5.20216E+16
2.73538E+13
-5.78284E+11
-1.18589E+11
-5.78284E+11
-5.78284E+11
-11930796496
-11930796496
-2125496656
-2125496656
-373534788
-373534788
-230689753.7
-230689753.7
-36496027.41
-4486918.677
-329836.2559
-7810.975726
-379.1940809
-63.03486181
-3.813377454
21167621.94
53820151.76
358878225.3
602954097.3
906113603.8
1346457545
3854381246
13723168335
34366951488
78005297943
1.7104E+11
3.72841E+11
8.55907E+11
2.27386E+12

8.90712E+12
2.73552E+13
3.6934E+13
5.98279E+13
1.09078E+14
2.9215E+14
3.2405E+14
4.2109E+14
4.84039E+14
6.27809E+14
8.63392E+14
1.38726E+15
1.51066E+15
2.04249E+15
5.45175E+15
6.38853E+15
6.38853E+15
1.83879E+16
1.83879E+16
2.10915E+16
2.10915E+16
4.26325E+16
4.26325E+16
5.2021E+16
2.43289E+16
5.2021E+16

Number of Simulation Runs

Simulation Time

12.42 sec.

5000

Average Value
Standard Deviation
Variance
Skewness
Kurtosis
Coefficient of Variation
Range
Range5_95
Minimum Value
Expected Tail <= 0.1%
0.01% - Quantile
0.02% - Quantile
0.03% - Quantile
0.04% - Quantile
0.05% - Quantile
0.06% - Quantile
0.07% - Quantile
0.08% - Quantile
0.09% - Quantile
0.1% - Quantile
0.2% - Quantile
0.3% - Quantile
0.4% - Quantile
0.5% - Quantile
0.6% - Quantile
0.7% - Quantile
0.8% - Quantile
0.9% - Quantile
1% - Quantile
2% - Quantile
3% - Quantile
4% - Quantile
5% - Quantile
10% - Quantile
20% - Quantile
30% - Quantile
40% - Quantile
50% - Quantile
60% - Quantile
70% - Quantile
80% - Quantile

Out: [kellycriterion.xlsx]Sheet2!H105
7977.279995
1156.463927
1337408.815
0.204835248
3.177497524
0.144969705
8536.689647
3793.032012
4400.995093
4590.435019
4400.995093
4400.995093
4550.691744
4550.691744
4557.960571
4557.960571
4715.644623
4715.644623
4726.883063
4726.883063
4880.107475
4980.100221
5079.204475
5125.321987
5236.991124
5289.907153
5357.751836
5390.0946
5405.118533
5702.250608
5887.732106
6009.658114
6141.028467
6524.283595
6998.502331
7353.862332
7661.565434
7951.602017
8245.553955
8543.119712
8909.736278

90% - Quantile
95% - Quantile
96% - Quantile
97% - Quantile
98% - Quantile
99% - Quantile
99.1% - Quantile
99.2% - Quantile
99.3% - Quantile
99.4% - Quantile
99.5% - Quantile
99.6% - Quantile
99.7% - Quantile
99.8% - Quantile
99.9% - Quantile
99.91% - Quantile
99.92% - Quantile
99.93% - Quantile
99.94% - Quantile
99.95% - Quantile
99.96% - Quantile
99.97% - Quantile
99.98% - Quantile
99.99% - Quantile
Expected Tail >= 99.9%
Maximum Value

9454.892744
9934.060479
10069.26024
10250.181
10504.16425
10811.27879
10897.40086
10969.78571
11074.39405
11144.59018
11277.6833
11365.10766
11538.59664
11661.94092
12049.31299
12088.1261
12088.1261
12102.74724
12102.74724
12357.14937
12357.14937
12597.17435
12597.17435
12937.68474
12355.3658
12937.68474

Out: [kellycriterion.xlsx]Sheet2!F105
6208.313422
888.9505883 6.897993 6.983868
790233.1485
0.300932336
3.288237848
0.143187131
6632.717464
2896.305106
3491.070084
3636.981173
3491.070084
3491.070084
3581.095531
3581.095531
3639.631907
3639.631907
3725.746195
3725.746195
3747.362149
3747.362149
3960.570214
4012.559027
4096.137958
4142.260484
4195.898448
4222.449405
4258.592302
4281.032231
4324.206031
4501.558452
4633.883779
4721.744852
4809.263238
5093.620176
5453.746785
5719.030947
5963.204755
6185.238788
6395.153464
6632.651477
6920.952696

7364.637812
7705.568344
7827.001695
7970.808756
8163.902296
8538.389399
8595.345789
8655.865317
8719.502145
8790.039865
8875.683018
8931.711701
9009.893294
9263.893535
9423.02072
9435.533057
9435.533057
9505.023108
9505.023108
9564.475087
9564.475087
10003.81316
10003.81316
10123.78755
9675.942114
10123.78755