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" "

ISSN 1561-2422

05/04


..
..

( 02-222)



JEL: J13

.., .. . : EERC, 2005.

RLMS
19942001 . , , . ,
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. , , , .

. , ,
EERC 20022003 . .





, , . 3
.: (095) 152 15 51
: (095) 152 03 61
E-mail: roshchin@aha.ru

.. , .. 2005

1.

2.

3.

4.

10

5. .

13

6. RLMS

16

7.

18

7.1.
7.2. ( )
7.3.

18
28
29

8.

32

35

. : ,

.
.

35
37
43
62


, , , . 10 , ,
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10

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probit tobit ( ) 5 10 , , , , ( , ..). Wong and Levine (1992)
( ) 5 ( ).
Ahn (1995).
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.
. (., ., , 2000, 2002, 2003;
, 2003). ""
(www.demoscope.ru).
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11

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13

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14

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. , 12 (24) , .
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1995 1996 ., 1994, 1996, 1998 .,
, 19951996, 19971998, 19992000 .. , " " (
), 9 , 2
, , , 1998 ., "" 1998 ., .. (1996 .).
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15

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1998 .) . ,
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16


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).

6. RLMS
, , RLMS?

, , 1644
(. 1b, ), . ,
+1 ( 6 28 758 ).
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(19941996 .) , (19982001 .). , ""
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,
, RLMS .
(1639 , ), .
5 9 9371 ., 5 10 11637 .
+1 7853 . (. 2b). 1995, 1996, 1997, 1999,
2001 354 , .. 4.51% .

17


(. 3b). ( ) (. 4b). 1994 .
, . ,
(. 5b). , 2 ..
.
(. 6b), , :
2024 . RLMS, ( , 2 ). 1999 ., , 2529 ,
. 2001 .
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.
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.
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1995 . 23.2% 20 , 2001
17.2%. 2024
. 2001 . . , +1,
, (. 8b).
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16 24% .
, 1995 2001 . (
).
, (. 9b, 10b).
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1995 . ( ) , 3 , 2001 . 30%. , , 2001 ., 7
.
50% . 45% (. 13b16b).
, -
, . 1994 2001 . -

18

, , . , , 36.1% . . , ,
,
, . , ,
53.5%, 90%, 95%, 9.2%, 8.3%, 25%, 100%. , , . ,
- . " " , ( 4-
4% ), , , .
,
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). 1994 . 1 1.67 "-" ,
1.5 19982001 .
4% , 4.9% , 10.3%
. .
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. , , , 26.3%
, 4.3%,
1.4%. , , "" ( )
3.1%.

7.
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. , "
+1", probit.
5 , .. 7853 . ( 1, . 1c C)
. .

19

, ,
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20

, , ). -,
, ,
, .

.
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2000 .), .
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21

6.1% ( 1995
2001 .), 13 3.1%, 13 2.8%,
4 (50 ) 9.3%. ,
,
,
. ,
(
200 , 4
2 ).
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22

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23

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. 2004 .

24

, ( ). , , ( 1 2024 ) .
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25

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26

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27

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. .

28

7.2. ( )
,
RLMS
5, 6, 9 " (= 0)
(= 1) ", 5
8 " (= 0) (= 1) ".
450 .
1
. , . 1 . (. 5): ( 1); , ( 2); , ( 3).
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29

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30

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31

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32

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33

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. , 1980- . , -
19942000 . . ,
.

35

. :
,

3,5

2,5

1,5

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1990

1985

1980

1975

1970

1965

1960

. 1. . :
http://demoscope.ru/weekly/app/app4007.php.

3,5

. .

2,5

1,5

1
2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1990

1985

1980

1975

1970

1965

1960

. 2. . :
http://demoscope.ru/weekly/app/app4007.php.

36

3
2,8
2,6
2,4
2,2
2
1,8
1,6
1,4
1,2
1

2000

1999

1998

1997

1996

1995

1990

1985

1980

1975

1970

1965

1960

. 3. . : http://demoscope.ru/weekly/app/app4007.php.
1. - (1) (2). 5.

1.000

0.306

1000 1549

0.306

**

1.000

0.190

**

0.217

**

0.194

**

0.153

( 2001 .)

0.224

**

0.052

1000

0.242

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0.009

2001 . ()

0.037

100

0.507

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0.111
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0.128

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0.196

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0.413

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0.150

,
1 , 1000

0.124

(2002) - (.: ).

**

0.278

**

37

5
(1994 .)

6
(1995 .)

7
(1996 .)

8
(1998 .)

9
(2000 .)

10
(2001 .)

1b. ( RLMS, , 28758 ).

1519 (RLMS)

3.33

3.40

2.79

2.92

1.85

1.03

2.60

1519 ()

4.99

4.56

3.97

3.4

2.81

2.81

2024 (RLMS)

11.61

8.78

7.55

7.52

5.92

5.03

2024 ()

12.03

11.35

10.64

9.9

9.53

9.54

2529 (RLMS)

5.91

5.91

5.82

4.87

4.11

2.66

2529 ()

6.72

6.72

6.65

6.8

6.87

7.15

3034 (RLMS)

3.31

3.26

2.13

2.14

2.75

1.49

3034 ()

2.96

2.97

3.03

3.34

3.6

3.92

3539 (RLMS)

2.20

0.76

1.92

1.44

0.71

0.28

3539 ()

1.06

1.07

1.08

1.15

1.2

1.31

4044 (RLMS)

0.00

0.28

0.68

0.53

0.25

0.13

4044 ()

0.23

0.22

0.23

0.23

0.24

0.24

(RLMS)

4.58

3.87

3.63

3.41

2.74

1.90

3.35


RLMS

4692

4752

4792

4832

4849

4841

28758

7.71

4.76

2.51

1.24

0.31

1995

1996

1997

1999

2000

1997

1761

1769

1876

1968

9371

- ,
+1

1641

1489

1469

1569

1685

7853

17.8

15.4

17.0

16.4

14.4

16.2

82

66

67

75

64

354

% ,
T+1

5.00

4.43

4.56

4.78

3.80

4.51

% T+1 T+2

8.78

7.92

9.26

8.54

8.63


T+1

,
510

10

,
59

2b. 1639 .

2001
2266

11637

38

14
12

1994

10

1995

1996

1998

2000

2
43

41

39

37

35

33

31

29

27

25

23

21

19

17

15

. 2b. +1 ( 7853 .).

3b. .
5

10

1619

15.2

15.3

15.9

17.4

18.4

18.3

16.9

2024

20.5

20.7

23.1

22.8

24.3

24.4

22.7

2529

19.4

19.9

19.8

20.6

21.3

22.0

20.6

3034

22.2

19.6

19.3

17.3

18.0

18.1

19.1

3539

22.7

24.4

21.9

21.8

17.8

17.2

20.8

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

4b. .
5

10

24.7

26.8

28.3

28.6

31.3

31.6

8.6

9.2

8.7

7.4

8.5

8.6

1.4

1.0

1.2

1.0

1.1

1.1

65.2

63.0

61.9

63.0

59.1

58.7

53.6

48.6

47.1

9.4

10.5

11.6

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

39

5b. .
5

10

32.25

32.88

34.09

36.19

39.18

41.22

36.18

32.70

32.42

33.63

35.23

36.79

37.29

34.79

29.14

28.68

27.19

23.99

19.92

17.74

24.16

4.51

4.43

3.67

3.57

3.40

3.05

3.75

1.40

1.59

1.41

1.01

0.71

0.71

1.12

6b. , +1, .
5

1995

1996

1997

1999

2001

1619

7.48

6.84

7.05

4.91

3.64

5.86

2024

10.32

6.27

7.96

8.62

7.97

8.25

2529

5.35

5.12

4.18

7.38

4.25

5.27

3034

3.74

2.75

3.20

2.78

2.15

2.95

3539

0.25

2.34

1.16

0.55

0.88

5.00

4.43

4.56

4.78

3.80

4.51

7b. , +1,
(%).
5

1995

1996

1997

1999

2001

1619

23.2

24.2

25.4

17.3

17.2

21.5

2024

39.0

27.3

37.3

37.3

48.4

37.9

2529

19.5

22.7

17.9

32.0

23.4

23.2

3034

17.1

12.1

13.4

10.7

10.9

13.0

3539

1.2

13.6

6.0

2.7

100

100

100

100

4.5
100

100

40

8b. , +1.
5

1995

1996

1997

1999

2001

21.5

21.9

22.4

16.0

23.8

2.5

1.6

3.0

1.3

1.6

75.9

75.0

74.6

82.7

76.2

72.0

49.2

3 ,

10.7

27.0

100

100

100

100

100

5 ()
6

9b. , .. , +1.
5

1995

1996

1997

1999

2001

63.41

53.03

58.21

58.67

67.19

60.17

24.39

34.85

25.37

32.00

23.44

27.97

8.54

4.55

13.43

6.67

6.25

7.91

3.66

7.58

2.99

2.67

3.13

3.95

100

100

100

100

100

100

82

66

67

75

64

354

10b. , , +1, .
5

1995

1996

1997

1999

2001

1619

94.7

87.5

100.0

92.3

90.9

93.4

2024

71.9

77.8

64.0

75.0

77.4

73.1

2529

50.0

33.3

33.3

41.7

60.0

43.9

3034

14.3

12.5

12.5

8.7

3539

100.0

11.1

50.0

25.0

63.4

53.0

58.2

58.7

67.2

60.2

41

11b. , ( ), % .
5

1995

1996

1997

1999

2001

13

50.00

41.94

42.86

35.48

28.57

40.43

46

26.67

32.26

35.71

38.71

23.81

31.91

23.33

25.81

21.43

25.81

47.62

27.66

100

100

100

100

100

100

12b. .
5

10

40.16

36.71

37.77

38.74

45.99

48.64

41.66

1 <19

59.2

51.6

51.5

43.6

52.2

56.9

52.7

2 2024

75.6

72.6

68.0

66.7

75.6

78.0

73.2

3 2529

80.6

74.6

80.6

77.1

84.9

76.5

79.1

4 3034

72.2

61.8

46.7

78.6

70.0

66.7

66.0

5 3539

44.0

58.3

56.0

27.3

36.8

57.7

47.5

67.5

62.5

60.7

57.1

65.5

67.8


,
,

13b. +1 ( ).
5

+1

1995

1996

2001

+1

163

134

147

444

+1

82

64

66

212

+1

81

70

81

232

(%)

50.31

44.90

47.76

47.75

5.85

6.14

4.22

5.31

42

14b. +1 +2 ( 2- ).
5

1995, 1996

1999, 2000

+1 +2

247

237

484

+1 +2

144

134

278

+1 +2

103

103

206

(%)

41.7

43.5

42.56

8.78

7.24

7.95

+1 +2

15b. +1 ( )
(%).
5

+1

1995

1996

2001

(%)

4.94

5.44

4.15

4.82

(%)

5.00

4.43

3.80

4.40

90.07

90.13

92.05

90.78

1641

1489

1685

4815

16b. +1 +2 ( )
(%).
5

1995, 1996

1999, 2000

(%)

6.28

6.56

6.42

(%)

8.78

8.54

8.66

84.95

84.89

84.92

1641

1569

3210

+1 +2

17b. , +1, .

% +1

1993

571

3.2

26.3

603

2088

1.7

4.3

200

1954

0.0

1.4

24

419

4.16

3.1

43

. 6
1c. Probit- " +1", .
1,

2,

3,

4,

0.1927 *

0.0606

0.3835*

1.3415*

/10 ( .)

0.0660**

0.0579*

0.0587

0.8331**

0.9078**

0.4712**

( .)

0.1127**

0.1204**

0.0733**

0.0635

0.1353

0.2724

0.0334

0.0720

0.1445*

0.2383

0.8590

0.2015*

0.0525

0.4413**

1.4617*

0.0003

0.0190

0.0551**

0.0431

0.0625

0.0706

0.0379

0.0866

0.2052

0.3956

0.0400

0.0884

0.0761

0.0687

0.1863

0.0990**

0.1673**

0.0009

0.1502


( .)

0.0044**

0.0065**

0.0012

0.0121

0.0971**

0.1589**

0.0707

0.4769*

0.0923

0.1078

0.0459

0.3644


/10


()

0.9772**

9.4590**

1.7102*

/10

0.0754

0.0120

1.1054**

0.0337

0.0277

0.7067

0.1080

0.1094

0.2966

0.1430

0.2021

0.0824

( = 0)

0.0136

0.0135

0.1322

0.2744

0.1500

0.0269

0.0313

0.4971

: * 5% ; ** 1% .

44

1,

2,

3,

4,

0.0646

0.0784

0.1591

1.4094*

0.0204

0.0273

0.0059

0.3644

..

0.0346

0.0488

0.0423

0.0756

0.0537*

0.0517*

0.0647

0.2631

0.0042

0.0073

0.0122

0.0158

0.0434**

0.0221

0.1193**

0.0190

1000

0.0068*

0.0088*

0.0024

0.1431**

0.1599*

0.1496*

0.2174

1.1684**

0.1880*

0.0614

0.4350**

0.2591

100 .

0.0031

0.0018

0.0075

0.0365

( . )

0.1724*

0.2040*

0.1030

0.4279**

0.4756**

0.4179*

-
( , -)

0.2728

0.1183

0.4752

0.5360**

0.3782

0.9143**

, -

0.7800**

0.5660*

1.1905**

0.3601

0.1390

0.7347

0.7622**

0.6575*

0.9569*

0.3126

0.1826

0.5110

0.4761*

0.5503*

0.3749

6 ( 5)

0.0797

0.0167

0.3869

0.1128

0.1574

0.0224

0.0711

0.0432

0.2043

0.1330

0.1866

0.0020

Constant

0.2402

0.2718

2.8325

7108

4580

2528

863 (#)

385.08

406.00

119.4

443.21

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.00

0.188

0.240

0.127

0.745

1021.5

716.9

260.36

75.692

, -

Observations
Wald Chi2
2

Prob > Chi


2

Pseudo R

Log likelihood

45

2c. Probit- " +1" , .


1,

2,

3,

/10

0.0124

0.3591

0.2927

/10 ( .)

0.0447

0.0517

0.0335

0.0967

0.0287

0.1009

0.0484

0.0616

0.2598

0.2189

0.2684

0.4395**

0.0326*

0.0022

0.0750**

0.0954

0.2167

0.0247

0.1974

0.1352

0.1252

0.1686*

0.0989

0.1532

0.0936**

0.2221**

0.0053

( .)

0.0041**

0.0069**

0.0014

0.0885

0.0661

0.1402*

0.0971

0.2447

0.1028

()

1.1801**


/10

0.1805

0.0199

0.1695

0.2219

0.2984*

0.2542

0.3214

0.4813*

( = 0)

0.0297

0.0259

0.2758

0.0956

0.0776

0.0453

0.1449

0.2849

0.0184

0.0112

0.0337

0.0214

...

0.0003

0.0124

0.0582

0.0140

0.0165

0.0080

0.0085

0.0213

0.0034

46

1,

2,

3,

0.0876**

0.0619*

0.1333**

0.0065

0.0118

0.0019

0.2498**

0.1854

0.3213*

0.2525*

0.0234

0.3606*

100

0.0090

0.0071

0.0097

( )

0.1291

0.0534

0.1395

0.3800**

0.2953

0.4101*

- ( , -)

0.0854

0.4576

0.3331

0.5854*

0.3068

0.9280*

, -

0.7695*

0.2189

1.2074*

, -

0.4136

0.0032

0.6618

0.7943*

0.4832

0.9914*

0.1884

0.2596

0.5630

0.2378

0.1158

0.2423

6 ( 5)

0.0473

0.2164

0.3184

0.2445

0.2356

0.2779

0.1153

0.1613

0.0722

0.1972

0.2598

0.2111

Constant

1.7435

1.4232

3.4947

2273

510

1763

Wald Chi2

276.30

77.76

74.23

Prob > Chi2

0.00

0.00

0.00

Pseudo R2

0.230

0.162

0.126

491.608

240.64

216.76



1000

Observations

Log likelihood

47

3c. Probit- " +1" , .


1,

2,

/10

0.4298**

0.3887*

/10 ( .)

0.0920**

0.0852**

0.4373**

0.4974**

( .)

0.0639**

0.0697**

0.1786

0.2604 *

0.1849

0.2049*

0.2840

0.2257

0.0134

0.0070

0.1159

0.0911

0.5571*

0.6153*

0.0635

0.0898

0.1130**

0.1356**

( .)

0.0048**

0.0059**

0.2496**

0.2588**

0.2497**

0.2269*

()

0.5571**


/10

0.0339

0.0356

0.0347

0.0430

0.0089

0.0011

0.1159

0.1187

( = 0)

0.0073

0.0085

0.0701

0.0727

0.0336

0.0457

48

1,

2,

0.0596

0.0157

0.0386

0.0466*

...

0.0624

0.0779*

0.1010**

0.0621

0.0169

0.0196

0.0068

0.0086

1000

0.0125*

0.0118*

0.0794

0.1053

0.1706

0.1250

100

0.0014

0.0008

( . )

0.3008**

0.3642**

0.5744**

0.6350**

- ( , -)

0.5634*

0.4498

0.6068*

0.5185

, -

1.0019**

0.9475**

0.5325

0.4084

0.9469**

0.9192*

0.5531*

0.5070

0.9678**

0.9315*

6 ( 5)

0.1822

0.1300

0.0969

0.0298

0.1466

0.1227

0.0746

0.0101

Constant

1.4903

0.9658

4835

4070

Wald Chi2

227.29

205.29

Prob > Chi2

0.00

0.00

Pseudo R2

0.157

0.160

476.57

433.45

, -

Observations

Log likelihood

49

4c. " ".


1-

0.2660**

0.4654**

0.4896**

0.2741**

0.2309*

0.0010

0.0300

( .)

0.3203**

0.5041**

0.7805**

0.0488

0.0869

0.2489

0.0678

0.0319

0.0511

0.0326

0.0133

( .)

0.0017

0.0004

0.0644

0.0754

0.1399*

0.1272

0.0643

0.0806

0.0119

0.0281

0.0371

0.0163

0.1096

0.1629

0.2203

0.5094**

0.0795

0.1964

0.1580

0.2201

0.0154

0.0349

0.2335

0.3310

0.0798

0.0872

()

50

1-

0.0050

0.0155

...

0.0292

0.0440

0.0442*

0.0039

0.0036

0.0114

0.0015

0.0126

. . .

0.0661

0.0961

0.0802

0.0229

1000 15

0.0002

0.0001

100

0.0056

0.0010

( )

0.0150

0.0613

0.0143

0.0734

, - ( . , . )

0.1603

0.0906

, -

0.0200

0.0298

, -

0.1146

0.1094

, -

0.0265

0.0318

0.0360

0.0386

0.1786

0.2574

0.0246

0.2575

0.0846

0.0857

0.0853

0.0251

0.0315

0.0120

0.0351

0.0854

Constant

1.3169

1.0179

Observations

307

184

R2

0.51

0.41

51

5c. Probit- " (= 0) (= 1)


+1", .

/10

0.0355

0.0690

0.0221

/10 ( .)

0.0423

0.0012

0.0571

1.8814**

2.6375**

1.5144**

( .)

0.3762**

0.5478**

0.4803*

0.4868

0.1056

0.0380

0.2206

1.7816**

0.0028

0.0121

0.0116

( .)

0.1003

0.3382

0.1038

0.2548*

0.3623*

0.1662

0.2277**

0.3616**

0.1940


( .)

0.0136**

0.0250**

0.0092*

0.1907*

0.2905*

0.1169

()

1.0403**

0.8934**

Family parameters

( = 0)

0.0696

0.0949

0.5517

0.0119

0.3272**

...

0.0260

0.4536**

0.1310**

0.1592*

0.1054

0.4996**

0.0019

0.0357

0.0597

52

0.9482*

1.6281**

/10

0.1974

0.0919

0.1508

0.2046

0.3282

0.5318*

0.2183

0.1219

0.0121

1000

0.0207*

. 1000

0.1699

. . .

0.9126*

100 .

0.0147

( )

0.9687**

1.2255**

0.6912

0.3834

0.6487**

0.0137

, .
( . , . )

0.3759

2.6403**

3.4767**

, -

0.8578*

0.2406

0.7944

, -

0.7254*

0.5394

2.0330*

, -

0.3446

0.4331

1.8265*

0.4443

0.2278

0.9813

0.2827

0.2391

1.1209

0.1336

0.4740

1.4648

0.0210

0.2207

0.7070

0.0380

1.0015**

0.0277

Constant

0.7162

3.9565

2.5596

404

312

93

0.3745

0.4852

0.5190

174.703

110.991

30.798

Observations
Pseudo R2
Log likelihood

53

6c. " (=2),


(=1), (=0) +1", ( ).
""

""

/10

0.7829 **

0.3814

/10 ( .)

0.2042 **

0.1602 **

0.9483 **

1.815 **

( .)

0.212 **

0.23 **

0.4512

0.3565

0.1087

0.1285

0.0109

0.006

0.0177

0.3343

0.0473

0.2408

0.1574 **

0.287 **


( .)

0.0098 **

0.0107 **

0.0452

0.2165 *

0.1102

0.1205

()

0.0391

2.136 **

( = 0)

0.0481

0.0242

0.0612

0.4480 *

0.0142

0.042

...

0.1993 **

0.0424

0.0931

0.0694

0.0086

0.0063

54

""

""

0.026

0.0942 *

1000

0.0137

0.0106

0.0228

0.1989

0.3717

0.1913

100

0.0031

0.0211

0.7124 **

0.9630 **

0.0916

0.658 **

, -
( . , . )

0.2439

0.9609

, -

0.4981

1.000

, -

0.7441

0.1036

, -

0.4362

0.0726

0.1044

0.444

0.6156

0.1761

0.0523

0.3806

0.2826

0.0920

0.3737

0.2892

Constant

1.797

2.368

( )

Observations
Pseudo R2
Log likelihood

4369
0.1345
1407.302

55

7c. Probit- " ?"


1,

2,

3,

/10

0.2220**

0.0732

0.2380**

/10 ( .)

0.1167**

0.1310**

0.0825**

0.9784**

1.1726**

0.4788**

( .)

0.0916**

0.1311**

0.1346

0.2056**

0.1911**

0.1057

0.1600**

0.1082**

0.1850**

0.3599**

0.2206**

0.2927**

0.0102*

0.0142*

0.0009

0.0353

0.0285

0.0547

0.0561

0.2711

0.1378

0.0370

0.0266

0.0279

0.0737**

0.0826**

0.0558**

( .)

0.0028**

0.0031**

0.0021*

0.0965**

0.1348**

0.0553*

()

0.5747**


/10

0.1896**

0.0798**

0.1132*

0.1832**

0.0981*

0.1264**

0.0002

0.0417

0.0089

0.0151

0.2950**

0.4244**

0.1450**

0.0652*

56

1,

2,

3,

0.0705*

0.0442

0.0794

0.0198*

0.0201

0.0812**

...

0.0423**

0.0227

0.0316

. .

0.0351**

0.0164

0.0079

0.0094*

0.0182**

0.0034

0.0090

0.0040

0.0132

1000

0.0086**

0.0076**

0.0077**

0.0619*

0.0661*

0.0636

0.0876*

0.0890

0.0743

100

0.0064**

0.0073**

0.0051*

0.0866*

0.0450

0.1201*

0.1598**

0.0557

0.2471**

, -
( , -)

0.1350

0.1915

0.0192

0.0188

0.0591

0.0054

, -

0.0566

0.0577

0.0982

, -

0.4672**

0.4222**

0.4446**

0.1169

0.0998

0.0838

0.0143

0.0886

0.1966

. , .

0.1732

0.1343

0.1261

0.1417**

0.1129**

0.2054**

0.2304**

0.1706*

0.3413**

0.3300**

0.2524**

0.4358**

0.2354**

0.1533

0.3211**

10

0.1910**

0.1928*

0.1862*

Constant

0.1269

0.9237

0.2602

10473

6600

3873

2497.03

1832.52

545.9

0.244

0.328

0.134

5369.71

2926.53

2322.483

Observations
Wald Chi2
2

Pseudo R

Log likelihood

57

8c. Probit- " ?"


(4)

(5)

(6)
.

0.0091

0.0186

0.3175**

/10 ( .)

0.1073**

0.1231**

0.3452**

1.3897**

1.3966**

1.5165**

( .)

0.1612**

0.1645**

0.1007

0.1515**

0.2205**

0.4172

0.1191**

0.1049*

0.2828*

0.3149**

0.2873**

0.4662**

0.0137*

0.0157*

0.0302*

0.0740

0.0484

0.0461

0.1147

0.2963

0.0529

0.0381

0.0988

0.0795**

0.0888**

0.0930**


( .)

0.0026

0.0035**

0.0039**

0.1323**

0.1538**

0.0310

()

0.2855**


/10

0.9457**


/10

0.1257**

0.0968**

0.2007*

0.1601**

0.1518**

0.0304

0.0748

0.0798

0.0798

0.0613

0.0631

0.1951

0.0125

0.0150

0.0344

0.3523*

0.4671**

0.0954**

0.0716*

0.1070

58

(4)

(5)

(6)
.

0.0336

0.0341

0.0308

0.0125

0.0237*

0.0249

...

0.0224

0.0299

0.0113

0.0340*

0.0134

0.2234**

0.0144**

0.0196**

0.0391**

0.0047

0.0022

0.0159

1000

0.0078**

0.0074**

0.0249**

0.1068**

0.1115**

0.1269*

0.1468**

0.1200*

0.1407

100

0.0069**

0.0070**

0.0054

( )

0.0465

0.0470

0.0750

0.0656

, -
( , -)

0.0579

0.0940

0.1088

0.1397

, -

0.0805

0.1665

, -

0.4211**

0.3943**

0.0468

0.0170

0.0214

0.0243

. , .

0.1272

0.0865

0.1211*

0.1247*

0.2802**

0.2691**

0.2946**

0.2900**

0.2764**

0.2445*

10

0.2134*

0.1910*

Constant

0.9946*

1.5029**

6730

5658

3767

1352.47

1240.51

346.19

0.233

0.258

0.121

3109.67

2539.87

1252.39

Observations
Wald Chi2
2

Pseudo R

Log likelihood

59

9. 1639 ,
+1.

5 1994

6 1995

7 1996

8 1998

9 2000

T+1

0.05

0.04

0.05

0.05

0.04

0.05

/10

2.82

2.81

2.78

2.76

2.70

2.77

0.38

0.35

0.35

0.37

0.45

0.38


(1 , 2 , 3 )

1.51

1.54

1.47

1.49

1.64

1.53

(
)

0.86

0.85

0.83

0.81

0.80

0.83

( = 1)

0.04

0.05

0.04

0.00

0.04

0.04

1.41

1.49

1.42

1.36

1.61

1.46

(1 , 2 ,
3 )

2.25

2.32

2.33

2.35

2.35

2.32

0.29

0.33

0.31

0.39

0.37

0.34

0.17

0.16

0.15

0.15

0.15

0.16

()

0.67

0.65

0.64

0.64

0.61

0.64

( = 0)

4.42

4.05

3.85

3.64

3.69

3.93

5.77

5.52

5.33

4.80

4.90

5.26

( = 1)

0.88

0.88

0.87

0.87

0.86

0.87

3.99

4.00

3.76

3.87

3.86

3.90

...

3.02

3.15

3.21

3.43

3.41

3.25

1.17

1.16

1.12

1.05

0.95

1.09

1.12

1.17

1.18

1.27

1.27

1.20

4.29

4.34

3.79

3.76

4.81

4.21

0.41

0.41

0.39

0.37

0.37

0.39

0.29

0.29

0.29

0.29

0.27

0.29

7.63

7.65

7.81

7.36

7.60

7.61

8.23

9.11

9.60

14.19

10.51

10.33

7.39

7.39

5.92

5.81

6.14

6.53

79.13

73.60

69.81

61.62

56.55

68.00

100

86.61

83.24

80.78

78.35

81.70

82.18

60

5 1994

6 1995

7 1996

8 1998

9 2000

/10

3.27

3.25

3.24

3.24

3.20

3.24

0.19

0.18

0.16

0.17

0.16

0.17

0.15

0.19

0.19

0.33

0.32

0.24

0.05

0.06

0.05

0.01

0.05

0.04

0.90

0.92

0.88

0.85

0.90

0.89

2.43

2.45

2.47

2.49

2.44

2.46

10. 1639 .

6 1995

7 1996

8 1998

9 2000

T+1

0.05

0.04

0.05

0.05

0.04

/10

2.79

2.79

2.76

2.72

2.67

2.67

2.73

0.40

0.37

0.38

0.39

0.46

0.49

0.42

.
(1 , 2 , 3 )

1.52

1.55

1.48

1.50

1.67

1.82

1.60

(
)

0.86

0.85

0.82

0.80

0.79

0.79

0.82

( = 1)

0.04

0.04

0.04

0.00

0.04

0.00

0.03

1.47

1.59

1.44

1.38

1.65

1.85

1.57

(1 ,
2 , 3 )

2.26

2.34

2.34

2.35

2.36

2.33

2.33

0.29

0.33

0.33

0.38

0.37

0.33

0.34

0.18

0.16

0.15

0.16

0.15

0.17

0.16

()

0.66

0.65

0.64

0.63

0.60

0.59

0.63

( = 0)

4.40

4.09

3.83

3.56

3.61

3.58

3.84

5 1994

10 2001

0.05

61

5 1994

6 1995

7 1996

8 1998

9 2000

10 2001

5.74

5.58

5.33

4.82

4.83

5.25

5.25

( = 1)

0.85

0.86

0.85

0.84

0.84

0.84

0.85

4.10

4.11

3.82

3.94

3.94

4.16

4.02

...

3.02

3.15

3.21

3.38

3.41

3.50

3.29

1.11

1.11

1.06

0.99

0.90

0.85

1.00

1.11

1.15

1.17

1.25

1.28

1.33

1.22

4.31

4.31

3.85

3.84

4.81

5.19

4.42

0.44

0.44

0.41

0.39

0.39

0.44

0.42

0.29

0.30

0.29

0.29

0.27

0.25

0.28

7.65

7.68

7.84

7.39

7.63

7.90

7.69

8.25

9.11

9.54

14.12

10.51

8.45

9.94

7.40

7.41

5.94

5.84

6.17

7.02

6.65

79.20

73.59

69.92

61.62

56.61

51.61

64.91

100

86.69

83.38

80.89

78.33

81.91

82.01

82.24

/10

3.25

3.23

3.21

3.22

3.18

3.19

3.21

0.21

0.19

0.18

0.18

0.17

0.18

0.18

0.15

0.19

0.20

0.32

0.32

0.30

0.25

0.05

0.05

0.05

0.01

0.05

0.01

0.04

0.90

0.92

0.88

0.85

0.90

0.90

0.89

2.44

2.47

2.46

2.48

2.46

2.47

2.46

62


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