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The Risk of Over‐reliance on Ratings
An “Insider’s” View
Markus Krebsz, MSI
SII Risk Forum, London ‐ 24 Feb 2009
CONTENT
• Overview
• Ratings
• Application
• Constructive criticism
• Risks/Mitigants
• Questions & close
2
OVERVIEW
QUESTION 1:
How many (Credit) rating agencies exist globally?
3 to 5
6 to 15 16 to 30
More than 30
4
1) A.M. Best Company, Inc. 33) Islamic International Rating Agency, B.S.C. (IIRA)
2) Agusto & Co. Ltd. 34) Japan Credit Rating Agency, Ltd. (JCR)
3) Ahbor Rating 35) JCR‐VIS Credit Rating Co. Ltd.
4) Apoyo & Asociados Internacionales S.A.C. 36) Korea Investors Service, Inc. (KIS)
5) Bank Watch Ratings S.A. 37) Korea Ratings Corporation
6) BRC Investor Services S.A. 38) Lanka Rating Agency, Ltd. (LRA)
7) Calificadora de Riesgo, PCA 39) Malaysian Rating Corporation Berhad (MARC)
8) Capital Intelligence, Ltd. 40) Mikuni & Co., Ltd.
9) Caribbean Information & Credit Rating Services Ltd. (CariCRIS) 41) Moody's Investors Service
10) Central European Rating Agency (CERA) 42) National Information & Credit Evaluation, Inc. (NICE)
11) Chengxin International Credit Rating Co., Ltd. 43) ONICRA Credit Rating Agency of India, Ltd.
12) China Lianhe Credit Rating, Co. Ltd. 44) P.T. Kasnic Credit Rating Indonesia ‐‐ Indonesia
13) Clasificadora de Riesgo Humphreys, Ltda. 45) P.T. PEFINDO Credit Rating Indonesia
14) Class y Asociados S.A. Clasificadora de Riesgo 46) Pacific Credit Rating (PCR)
15) CMC International, Ltd. 47) Pakistan Credit Rating Agency, Ltd. (PACRA)
16) Companhia Portuguesa de Rating, SA (CPR) 48) Philippine Rating Services, Corp. (PhilRatings)
17) Credit Analysis & Research Ltd (CARE) 49) RAM Rating Services Berhad (RAM)
18) Credit Rating Agency of Bangladesh, Ltd. (CRAB) 50) Rapid Ratings International, Inc.
19) Credit Rating Information and Services, Ltd. (CRISL) 51) Rating and Investment Information, Inc. (R&I)
20) CRISIL, Ltd. 52) Rus Ratings
21) Dagong Global Credit Rating Co., Ltd. 53) Seoul Credit Rating & Information, Inc.
22) Dominion Bond Rating Service (DBRS) 54) Shanghai Credit Information Services Co., Ltd.
23) Duff & Phelps de Colombia, S.A., S.C.V 55) Shanghai Far East Credit Rating Co., Ltd.
24) Ecuability, SA 56) Slovak Rating Agency, a.s. (SRA)
25) Egan‐Jones Rating Company 57) SME Rating Agency of India Limited (SMERA)
26) Equilibrium Clasificadora de Riesgo 58) Sociedad Calificadora de Riesgo Centroamericana, S.A. (SCRiesgo)
27) European Rating Agency (ERA) 59) Standard and Poors (S&P)
28) Feller Rate Clasificadora de Riesgo 60) Taiwan Ratings, Corp. (TCR)
29) Fitch Ratings, Ltd. 61) Thai Rating and Information Services Co., Ltd. (TRIS)
30) Global Credit Rating Co. 62) TheStreet.com Ratings, Inc.
31) Interfax Rating Agency (IRA) 63) Türk KrediRating (TCRating)
32) Investment Information and Credit Rating Agency (ICRA) 64) Veribanc, Inc.
Source: www.defaultrisk.com 5
QUESTION 2:
6
RATING PRINCIPLES
Fitch Ratings, Standard & Poor’s:
Probability of default (PD) = First dollar of loss
Î What is the ultimate default risk?
Moody’s:
Expected loss (EL) = [(PD) X (LGD)]
Î What is the amount of net loss suffered?
7
QUESTION 3:
8
RATINGS MAPPING TABLE
Fitch Ratings Moody’s Standard & Poors Mapped
Long-term rating Short-term rating Long-term rating Short-term rating Long-term rating Short-term rating internal
r a t i n g
Investment Grade
A- F1 or F2 A3 A- iA-
P-2 A-2
BBB+ F2 Baa1 BBB+ iBBB+
BB B Ba2 BB iBB
Speculative Grade
B
BB- Ba3 BB- iBB-
Ranges within
B+ B1 B+ iB+
B-1, B-2 and B-3
B B2 B iB
CC Ca CC iCC
C C C iC
DDD, DD, D D
Moody’s: D D D iD
Source: Bloomberg, Fitch, Moody’s and S&P 9
QUESTION 4:
SF Bond 1 rated AAA (Fitch/ S&P/ Moody’s)
= SF Bond 2 rated AAA (Fitch/ S&P/ Moody’s)?
10
SUPER‐SENIOR RATINGS
Structure 1 Structure 2
Tranche 1: AAA Tranche 1: AAA AA
Tranche 2: AA+ Tranche 2: AAA A
Tranche 3: A Tranche 3: AAA
Tranche 4: BBB‐ Tranche 4: AA+
Tranche 5: BB Tranche 5: A
Tranche 6: B+ Tranche 6: BBB‐
First Loss piece: NR Tranche 7: BB
Tranche 8 B+
First Loss piece: NR
11
RATINGS
RATING DEFINITION
• An opinion… * [Financial journalists]
• …on the relative ability…
• …of an entity to meet financial commitments.
*
Ratings are benchmark measures of…
• Probability of default (PD)
• Expectations of Loss given default (LGD)
13
RATINGS…
…can capture: …do NOT capture:
• Credit risk a Market risk a
a Liquidity risk a
a Operational risk a
a Basis risk (IR risk) a
…and are “hard‐wired”…
• by Basel II
• into banks’ credit rating models
• Investment guidelines and Asset management mandates 14
STATISTICAL: Probability of Default
Source: Fitch Ratings 15
RATINGS SCOPE
• Public
• Private
• Credit assessment
• Market‐Implied ratings
(CDS, Equity, Spread, Price etc.)
16
RATING ACTIONS
Rating Suffix
DEAL STAGE RATING WATCH
• Preliminary • Positive
• Final • Negative
• Paid in Full (PIF) / • Evolving / Uncertain
Redemption
OUTLOOK
INDICATORS • Positive
• Upgrade, Downgrade • Negative
• Affirmation / Confirmation • Stable
• Withdrawn
17
APPLICATION
RATINGS are used by …
Banks, Other Financial Institutions, Originators & Issuers,
Investors, Financial Regulators, Other Rating agencies, etc. …
in order to …
• Outsource analysis
• Determine required economic and regulatory capital charges
• Manage individual credit & portfolio risks
• Feature as input into Structured Finance models (CDO2 etc.)
19
CONSTRUCTIVE CRITICISM
FAILURES
AIG, Bear Stearns, Bradford & Bingley, Enron, Icelandic banks,
Lehman Bros., Monolines, Northern Rock, Parmalat, etc.
In their own words...
Fitch: “… did not foresee the magnitude of the decline…or the
dramatic shift in borrower behavior…”
Moody’s: “We did not . . . anticipate the magnitude and speed
of the deterioration in mortgage quality or the suddenness of
the transition to restrictive lending.”
S&P: “it is now clear that a number of assumptions used in
preparing ratings on mortgage‐backed securities issued
between 2005 and mid‐2007 did not work.”
Source: US Government Oversight and Reform Committee, Oct 2008
21
CRITICISM
• Business model: Too slow to react
• Assumptions, methodologies & models
• Conflict of interest (“issuer‐pays” model)
• Limited capture
• Split ratings
• Notching
• Implied ratings & internal competition
• etc.
22
THE RISKS OF OVER‐RELIANCE
‐ AND SUITABLE MITIGANTS
TIMELY ACTIONS and DEFERRAL
Rating process: Rating scope vs. time:
Timeliness of Rating changes Bond maturity profile
• Process stages to reach • Legal final vs. expected final
rating decisions maturity
• Detection of bond‐ vs. • Life‐time ratings (40+ years)
asset class‐specific • Timely payment of interest
and/or systemic issues & ultimate payment of
principal
31 July 07 20 Aug 07 31 Aug 07 9 Oct 07 16 Oct 07 25 Oct 07
Cut-off date CRA analyst Proposal: RWN CRA Analyst Proposal: DG Indiv. or Asset-class?
25
OPERATIONAL RISKS
• Changing methodologies and assumptions
• Timeliness of rating decisions
• Model risks
• Striking the right balance between non‐ and
over‐regulation
26
RISK MITIGANTS
• Understanding the meaning of ratings
• Understanding instruments’ risks
• Independent analysis
• Internal ratings
• Disputing rating decisions and methodologies
with the agencies – is it really worth it?
• Operational risk scenario: Awareness that
agencies CAN and DO get their ratings wrong
27
QUESTIONS & CLOSE
28
Q & A
For the Risk Forum For the Presenter
1. Has this presentation Q1)…?
changed your view
and perception of Q2)…?
Ratings (= Opinion)?
2. Would you now give Q3)…?
CRA more or less
credit?
3. Do you think that
CRAs should be
properly regulated?
29
CONTACT
Markus Krebsz
+44 (0) 79 85 065 045
krebsz@web.de
markus.krebsz@4‐most.co.uk
4most
Linen Hall
162‐168 Regents Street
London, W1B 5TE
Tel. +44 (0) 207 038 3690
www.4‐most.co.uk
ANNEX: Ratings & Probability of Default (PD)
1 year 5 year 10 year
Moodys S&P Fitch Moodys S&P Fitch Moodys S&P Fitch
Aaa 0.00% AAA 0.00% 0.00% Aaa 0.18% AAA 0.10% 0.11% Aaa 0.40% AAA 0.45% 0.37%
Aa1 0.00% AA+ 0.00% 0.00% Aa1 0.15% AA+ 0.16% 0.11% Aa1 0.25% AA+ 0.34% 0.47%
Aa2 0.00% AA 0.00% 0.00% Aa2 0.28% AA 0.15% 0.14% Aa2 0.67% AA 0.77% 0.68%
Aa3 0.00% AA- 0.02% 0.01% Aa3 0.18% AA- 0.52% 0.25% Aa3 0.33% AA- 1.11% 0.91%
Baa1 0.17% BBB+ 0.22% 0.22% Baa1 1.46% BBB+ 2.30% 1.82% Baa1 2.31% BBB+ 4.65% 3.82%
Baa2 0.12% BBB 0.28% 0.21% Baa2 2.11% BBB 2.17% 2.14% Baa2 5.49% BBB 5.27% 5.61%
Baa3 0.41% BBB- 0.39% 0.42% Baa3 3.60% BBB- 4.94% 4.03% Baa3 7.20% BBB- 8.97% 8.23%
Ba1 0.66% BB+ 0.56% 0.63% Ba1 6.76% BB+ 6.47% 6.19% Ba1 12.38% BB+ 11.74% 12.25%
Ba2 0.62% BB 0.95% 0.90% Ba2 8.82% BB 9.98% 8.37% Ba2 14.66% BB 17.34% 17.08%
Ba3 2.23% BB- 1.76% 2.05% Ba3 19.14% BB- 15.03% 15.92% Ba3 36.24% BB- 24.97% 30.27%
Caa-C 22.24% CCC/C 28.83% 25.54% Caa-C 60.40% CCC/C 50.85% 53.55% Caa-C 78.81% CCC/C 56.45% 65.07%
31