ТРУДЫ ГЛАВНОЙ ГЕОФИЗИЧЕСКОЙ ОБСЕРВАТОРИИ - nr558 - revistă

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558

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2008
551.5(09)

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Proceedings of Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory

Editorial board
Dr. V. M. Kattsov, Dr. E. L. Genihovich, Dr. A. S. Zaitsev, Dr. I. L. Karol,
Dr. N. V. Kobysheva, Dr. V. P. Meleshko, Dr. A. V. Mescherskaya,
Dr. O. M. Pokrovcky, Dr. V. D. Stepanenko, Dr. G. G. Schukin,
Dr. C. C. Chicherin, Dr. E. L. Makhotkina (Editorial board secretary)
The publication deals with the results of theoretical and experimental studies on
the present-day problems of changes in climate and weather forecast, atmospheric
diffusion and atmospheric air condition monitoring, climatology, remote sounding of
the atmosphere.
The publication is meant for a wide circle of specialists interested in the results
of meteorological science development and their practical application.
It is recommended for post-graduates and students in their third or fourth year
of respective speciality.

. . . ,
2008
551.509

. . , . .
. . .

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CURRENT STATUS AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT
OF MONTHLY AND SEASONAL WEATHER PREDICTION
V. M. Mirvis, V. P. Meleshko
Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory
Monthly and seasonal weather prediction based on use of general circulation models for atmosphere and ocean is reviewed. The
general feature of prediction technique is described. A quality of
3
the forecasts over Russia using different models, including MGO

one, is discussed and appropriate qualitative characteristics of
model performance are presented. It was noted that achieved
success in monthly prediction using GCM simulation and its
statistical interpretation made it possible to organize operational
prediction in Hydrometeorological Centre of Russian Federation.
It has been also shown that quality of the monthly forecasts is
higher than climatic ones. Success of seasonal prediction is mainly
associated with prediction of El Nio phenomena. In the middle
latitudes seasonal predictability is very low because of the large
variability of atmospheric circulation patterns. However, there are
some evidences indicating that for some regions of Russia and
where pronounced circulation patterns used to develop seasonal
prediction might be useful. Some approaches to further
improvements of prediction are discussed, as well.
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.: 70 , 1999, . 134140.
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Kanamitsu M. et al. NCEP-DEO AMIP-II Reanalysis (R-2), BAMS, 2002, 83,
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40
551.588

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2 .
SENSITIVITY OF EQUILIBRIUM CLIMATE
TO STRATOSPHERIC AEROSOL INJECTION AS SIMULATED
BY MGO AGCM WITH SLAB MODEL
V. P. Meleshko, I. L. Karol, V. M. Kattsov,
P. V. Sporishev, K. Yu. Bulgakov, V. A. Frolkis
As is known, dispersion of the sulphate aerosols in the stratosphere can reduce surface air temperature, and thus may provide
compensation of the global warming caused by anthropogenic forc41
ing. Using the MGO global atmospheric model coupled with the
mixed layer ocean, the warming of equilibrium climate was simulated for CO2 doubling in the atmosphere. Thereafter the new equilibrium climate was simulated in which CO2 doubling and sulphate
aerosols dispersed uniformly and globally in the stratosphere were
taken into account. As a result, complete compensation of global
warming was achieved.
It was shown that the global warming compensation due to aerosols forcing resulted in some changes of thermal conditions and hydrological cycle in several regions of the globe. Detailed analysis of
appropriate regional changes of climate and conservative assessment
of aerosols amount required for full compensation of global warming
due to CO2 doubling in atmosphere were discussed.
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2,9 %.

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56
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59
,
90 %.
c
.
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, .
,
= 0,26 0,55 , .
1012 , (WCP-112, 1986).
mS (/3).
()
WCP-112 (1986),
.
am = 0,0556 ,
, = 0,079
= 0,26 = 0,55 : S 35,0 (75 % H2SO4) 14,8 (S).
- am : S 40,9
(75 % H2SO4) 16,8 (S).
(S) ,
Rasch et al. (2008),
10 . . 10 . ., . . 17,4 % ,
S = 13,8 S, 16,8 S
. Rasch et
al. (2008) 22,3 S = 1,25 .
am = 0,376 14,5 S = 0,25 .
60
am = 0,0556 , = 2,03
Rasch et al. (2008) S = 18,6 S.
,
, . ,
r > 1 (, 1971).
Q, , t
Q = M/t. t . , Rasch et al. (2008) t
10 . . 10 . . 1012 2,7 0,3 . (. . 1),
,
,
, .

.
t 10
12 , , , .
t = 1 Q M .
6.
, , 2

, , .
, ,
, 61
2. ,
.
, , -, ,
. .
,
.

, .
.
( 08-05-00749, 07-05-08149,
05-05-65326).

. . . , 1974, 2, . 9197.
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/ . . .: , 1971. 165 .
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. ., . ., . ., . .,
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2 / . 150- . . 1. .: , 1999, . 332.
. ., . ., . . , . . ,
. . - . I. 26- . , 2006, 1,
. 518.
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. ,
1997, . 544, . 3123.
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( MGO-2).
, 2001, . 550, . 384.
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63
551.588

21-
. . , . .
. . .

21- , CMIP3.
, ,
21- .
,
.
CLIMATE CHANGES IN THE COUNTRIES OF RUSSIAS CLOSE
NEIGHBOURHOOD IN THE 21ST CENTURY
V. A. Govorkova, V. M. Kattsov
Probable changes of the climate of Russias close neighbourhood

in the 21st century are considered. The estimates are based on computations of global climate using an ensemble of CMIP3 coupled atmosphere and ocean general circulation models. Analysis results of future
changes of thermal and hydrological regimes over the territories of
European, Caucasian and Asian regions of CIS in early, mid- and late
21st century are presented. In addition to ensemble means of changes
of climatic variables, estimates of standard deviations and statistical
significance of the corresponding climate changes are given.
64

, , , .
20102015 . (, 2005)
(,
2008). , (, . (2004, 2008, 2008)), ,
,
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( ., 2007). ,
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(: , , ) - (: , , , ).

()
(CMIP31) (Meehl et al., 2007; Randall et al., 2007).
, . ,

, . (2008),
. (2008). SRES2: 2, A1B B1 (Nakienovi et
al., 2000) 21- : (20112030
.), (20412060 .) (20802099 .), 19801999 .

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, ( 9 16), .
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Coupled Model Intercomparison Project
( ).
2
Special report on emission scenarios .
66
,
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CMIP3
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3,71,0
3,71,0
3,50,8
3,50,8
3,70,9
3,40,7
4,00,9
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4,20,9
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A2
5,51,2
5,11,2
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4,20,9
4,20,9
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.
, .

() (20112030 .), (20412060 .) (20802099 .)
21- B1 (14 ), A1B (15 ) A2 (16 )
69
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()
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,

( ., 2008).
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20112030 .
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2099 .) 21- B1 (14 ), A1B (15 ), A2 (16 )
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. -,
- -.
, . ,
,
,
, , 2008 . ,
, ,
,
, ,
.
.
. .

. , , ,
, , , , ( , )
(
82
),

.

, .
, ,
,
.
,
.
1.3.2 1.3.4 (20082010 .),

,
20072011 ., (
07-05-13594-_; 08-05-00569-).

, (PCMDI)
CMIP3, (WG) (WCRP) . WCRP CMIP3 .
83

. ., . ., . ., . .,
. . , 2008. XXI . . 2.
CMIP3 . , 8, 519.
. . , . . , . . , 2007.
. , 12, 2937.
. ., . ., . ., . . ,
. ., . ., - . ., . . ,
. . , . . , . . , . . , 2004.
XXI :
. , 4, 3849.
. ., . ., . ., . .,
. . , 2008. XXI . 1.
. , 6, 519.
. ., . ., . . , . . ,
. . , . . , 2008. XXI . . 3.
,
CMIP3. ( ).
, 2005.
20102015 . . .: . . 28 .
, 2008.
( )
. . , . . , . . , 2006.
21- :
. , 3, 516.
H e g e r l , G . , Z w i e r s F . W . , S t o t t P . A . , K h a r i n V . V . , 2004.
Detectability of anthropogenic changes in annual temperature and precipitation
extremes. J. Climate, p. 17, 36833700.
K h a r i n V . V . , Z w i e r s F . W . , Z h a n g X . , H e g e r l G . , 2007. Changes in
temperature and precipitation extremes in the IPCC ensemble of global coupled model
simulations. J. Climate. DOI: 10.1175/JCL14066.1.
M e e h l G . A . et al., 2007. The WCRP CMIP3 Multimodel dataset: a new era in
climate change research. BAMS, 88, p. 13831394, DOI: 10.1175/BAMS-88-9-1383.
N a k i e n o v i N . et al., 2000. IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios.
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
R a n d a l l D . A . et al., 2007. Climate models and their evaluation. In: Climate Change 2007: The physical science basis. Contribution of Working Group I to
the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.
Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA.
84
551.509.68

( )
. . , . .
. . .

1970 1990 .
.

,
. .
INTER-ANNUAL CHANGES OF THE CLIMATIC
CHARACTERISTICS INSIDE THE FOREST
(MODEL RESULTS)
A. A. Semioshina, E. D. Nadyozhina
On the basis of optimization problem solution the inter-annual

changes of the air temperature from 1970 through 1990 inside the
forest of Valdai region are calculated and analyzed. The methodology was developed using the data of standard observations and the
simulation of the boundary layer over the open site and inside and
over the forest according to the change of input parameters. The
comparison of the model results and special observations inside the
forest was performed.
85

,
, ,
. ,
, . , ,
, ,
. , (, , )
. , , , .

, , (Torill, 2007,
Snyder et al., 2007).
. (). ( .,
2003; ., 2008; ., 2003) .
. (2003)

.

.
86

. , ,
, .
, , , , , XX
XXI ( ., 2008; Risnen, 2004).
.

, ,
,

(). , , , ,
.

,
, , .
.

.
87
1.

, , , (1999), . (2003). , .
, . : (G), (TH)
(qH) (H) , (z0),
(Rad) .

, .

.

. , , , , .

( .,
1989; , , 2002). 88

19701990 .
.
1. ,
:
(Rad), 10 (U10), (T0 ), 2 (T2 , q2 ).
,
Rad.
2.
(
2 ) ,

,
, .
, , , (z0 m) (T0 m)
(r0 m) , ,
. , , , .

. ,

.
.
89
3.

. .
,

, Pi(t):
te
J(C) ( Pi (t) Fi(t, C))2dt.
(1)
,
, ;
Pi(t) , , ;
Fi (t, ) ,
, (ts, te);
Pi(t) = U10 (t), T0 (t), T2 (t) ,
(2)
i
i
Fi(t, ) = U10
(t, C), T
(t, C), T2i (t, C) ,
(3)
= {G , T0 m , r0 m ,TH , qH , z0 m , H, z0 ,Rad , r0 .
(4)

G, T0 m, r0 m, TH, qH.
(r0 m r0 ). .
. , 90
H , , , .
,
*:
* = {G , T0 m , r0 m , H ,
(5)
H = TH + qH, = L/cp.
*,

J() =
m te
1
(Pi (t) Fc (t, C))2 dt,
m(ts te ) i =1 t
(6)
m ,
Pi(t).

, H G.
. 1
TH, qH G, 2000

, ( ),
, - (NCEP/NCAR).
, TH, qH G,
( , 1957), 1957 . , . , 1990 .
- .
91
1

.
G
TH
qH
T0 m
r0 m
7,8
3,7
4,5
14,8
0,73
8,9
6,9
8,8
5,8
1990 .
8,5
4,5
3,9
15,6
0,80
6,0
4,0
4,5
14,9
0,77
9,3
4,4
3,9
15,7
0,86
. , , , , .
,
.
, , H G
T0 m r0 m.
. 1 , , , 2 ,
( > 4000) (, 1949).
TH, qH, G, T0 m r0 m,
T0 , T2 U10
.
. 2 J(C) (T0 m, r0 m)
H,
,
.
T0 m r0 m . 2.
92
240
200
160
2,8
2,6
2,4
2,2
2
1,8
1,6
, %
, /
,
/( 2 )
280
80
75
70
65
60
55
50
45
24
22
20
18
16
14
12
20
15
10
5
0
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990
. 1. ()
(
) 1970 1990 .
, 10 ,
, (1)
2 (2),
.
93
T0 m
15,6
15,2
14,8
14,4
14,0
15,6
15,2
14,8
14,4
14,0
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
r0 m %
. 2. J() (T0 m, r0 m) TH, qH. .

) TH = 4,0; qH = 4,5; ) TH = 7,0; qH = 6,5..
, , .
2.

1970
1990 . , ,
. .

, . 94
,
: (35 );
(12 ); , (0,02). ,
, -,
,
. 2 .
2 ,
. (2002).
, . 1,
.
, 1972 .
,
.
1970 1990 .
, , ,
. 1972 .
r0 50 %, , 3 ,
( ) .
,
1978 .,
. U10 , .
U10 , 0,9 /.
95

(T0 ) 2 (T2 )
. 3
. 1972 .
, .
,
.
, (.
. 3 ). T0 m (
Rk = 0,96),
2 .

,
. . 4 ,
, ,
, , .
, , , ,
.
1 . ,
.
, ,
(. 5). 96

20
18
1
2
16
14
12
10
20
18 )
16
14
12
10
20
18
1
2
1
2
3
16
14
12
19 0
22
20
19 2
19 4
19 6
19 8
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1
2
18
16
14
12
1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990
. 3.

-.
(1) (2); 2
(1) (2); T0 m (1) : (2)
2 (3); (1)

(2).
97

18
17
16
15
14
16
15
14
13
12
16
15
14
13
12
17
16
15
14
13
12
1974
1976
1990
. 4. .
,
2 , ,
2 .
1 , 2 3 (2)
(3).
98
Y
1,50
1972
1,25
1,00
0,75
0,50
0,25
1
4
0 0 ,
. 5.
g 0 TH U10
103.
Y =
T
Rb
fH
1 , 2 .

.
, T0 , , . 5.
, , , ,
. , , Rk 0,76,
Rk 0,70. . 5 99
, 1972 .
,
, Rk. , Rk 0,76
Rk 0,75.
,
.

. . , , ,
.
.
( 06-05-64969-).

. . 1. . 1. ,
1957. 528 .
. ., . ., . ., . .
.
, 2003, 10, . 4153.
. . , . . , . .
.
, 2008, 1, . 1523.
. . , . . , . .
. , 2003, 3, . 8795.
. . , . .
- . , 1999, 10, . 5362.
100
. . . .: , 1949.
. . , . . , . .
.
, 1989, 7, . 7884.
. . , . .
. .: . .: , 2002.
. . , . . , . .
. .:
. .: , 2002, . 4574.
. ., . ., . ., . . , . .
XXI :
. , 2008, 3, . 515.
R i s n e n J . , H a n s s o n U . , U l l e r s t i g A . e t a l . European climate in the
late 21st century: Regional simulations with two driving global models and two forcing scenarios. Climate Dynamics, 2004, vol. 22, 1, p. 1331.
S n y d e r M . A . , S a n s o B . , S l o a n L . C . Validation of climate model output
using Bayesian statistical methods. Climatic Change, 2007, vol. 83, 4, DOI
10.1007/s 10584-007-9262-3, . 457476.
T o r i l l E . - S . Refinement of dynamically downscaled precipitation and temperature scenarios. Climatic Change, 2007, vol. 84, 34, DOI 10.1007/s10584007-9251-6, . 365382.
101
551.509

I.

. . 1, . . 1, . . 3, . . 4,
. . 6, . . 6, . . 1,
. . 3, . . 1, . . 2,
. . 1, . . 5, . . 1
1
. . .
3

4

5

6
- - -
2

.

.
(). . .
.

.
(,
, ),
,
. .
102
K-.
.
.
. .
,
.
A CONCEPTION OF THE NUMERICAL THREE-DIMENSIONAL
CONVECTIVE CLOUD MODEL DEVELOPMENT
I. The model structure and main equations

of hydrothermodynamical block
Yu. A Dovgalyuk1, N. E. Veremey1, S. A. Vladimirov3, A. S. Drofa4,
M. A. Zatevakhin6, A. A. Ignatyev6, V. N. Morozov1,
R. S. Pastushkov3, A. A. Sinkevich1, V. N. Stasenko2,
V. D. Stepanenko1, A. V. Shapovalov1, G. G. Shchukin1
1

ROSHYDROMET
3
Central Aerological Observatory
4
NPO Typhoon
5
High Mountain Geophysical Institute
6
Saint Petersburg Research and Design Institute ATOMENERGOPROEKT
2
A conception of development of the numerical three-dimensional

three-phase precipitating cloud model is presented. The conception
is based on results of analysis of worldwide knowledges in the field
of convective cloud processes and their numerical simulation. An
essence of this conception is in subdividing the model on blocks.
Every block contains a description of certain physical processes. It
allows each performer to develop separate blocks. The scheme of
blocks interaction is presented. The model is developed by united
team of four Roshydromet institutes.
The article contains speculations on a choice of model class
(full, three-dimensional, non-stationary, with parameterized description of microphysical processes), a description of model structure, it
presents main equations of hydrothermodynamical block and nu103
merical scheme of their solution. Movement equations are written in

NavieStox form. K-model is used for turbulence description.
Kesslers parameterization is used for simulation of precipitation
formation. Electrification processes and seeding are considered.
Brief results of preliminary calculations are presented. A conception
of testing the model using field measurements is formulated.
The second part of the article will be presented. Microphysical
processes description will be presented there.

. ,
. ,
.
,
, , ,
.

, (), .
, , .
( ).
.
( , , ,
,
104
, , ).
(
- ).

. -, -
.
(, 1979; , , 1998; ., 2007; , 1972; ,
1973; , 1987 .).
,
(McQueen et
al., 1997; Grell et al., 1995; Skamarock et al., 2005; Steppeler et al.,
2003; Trentmann et al., 2007).

(Large-Eddy Simulation, LES, ) (Chlond, Wolkau, 2001; Neggers et al., 2003),
(Khairoutdinov, Kogan, 1999).
,

,
.
, (, MM5
(Grell et al., 1995)).

, .
.
,
.

, .
.
. , 105
, ( , ,
, , ),
.

,
. , ,
. , , .
, , : , (1968, 1971);
(1970, 1973); Miller, Pearce (1974); Miller (1974); Pastushkov
(1975). , (1968, 1971); (1970, 1973); Pastushkov (1975) , (Miller, Pearce, 1974; Miller,
1974) ,
.
. .

.

( (Kessler, 1969)) Klemp, Wilhelmson (1978). .
(, 1978; Kogan, 1991) . .
. 19 ( 0,0076 7,6 ) 106
30 ( 4 3250 ) . .
.
, (1983, 1983) . - .
. , .
. , .

, .
.
, ,
,
( ., 1971; , 1964; Bennets,
Rawling, 1981; Hall, 1980). , (Mansell et al., 2005).

,
.
.
, Tripoli, Cotton (1982)
.

( ;
,
). , . .
. 107
(Cotton, Stephens,
Nehrkorn, Tripoli, 1982; Walko, Cotton, Meyers, Harrington, 1995;
Meyers, Walko, Harrington, Cotton, 1997).
Bennets, Rawling (1981), Cotton,
Stephens, Nehrkorn, Tripoli (1982), Walko, Cotton, Meyers,
Harrington (1995), Meyers, Walko, Harrington, Cotton (1997). Bennets, Rawling (1981) , Miller, Pearce, (1974) Miller
(1974), .
, (, , ) (,
, 1991). , ,
.
,
,
. . .
. , , (, , 1998).
. , (, 1964), ,
.

.
(, ) . Rawling (1982) ,
, Benetts,
Rawling (1981).
108
Miller, Pearce (1974). , , 30 .

Ziegler et al. (1991)
.
, , , .

Scavuzzo et al. (1995a, 1995b).

. , ( ) ,
, ..
.
, .

Mansell et al. (2005) Altaratz et al. (2005),

, .
, Altaratz et al. (2005) . ,

. :
(Cotton, Tripoli, 1982), .
,
, ,
109
,
. ,
, .
Mansell et al. (2005)
, Altaratz et al. (2005). ,
Klemp, Wilhelmson, (1978).
, . Altaratz et al.
(2005). ,
. , ,
. .
, , , , .
,
.
, . , ( ) ( ., 2005).
, ,
,
.
, ,
.
,
( ),
110
, (, ). , .
, , , , . .

, .
( , , , , ), .
,
. .

, .

. ,
(Kessler, 1969),

, .
1.

( ), , ,
. , .
111
, , , .
1950-
... 1960 . -1
(, 1964).
,
.
- .

,
. , .

.
,
.

.
,
,
,
,
( ., 2007). .

,
, ( , , . (,
, , 2007; Dovgalyuk et al ., 1994)). 112

.
, .

c
(, 2002). (2006).
1960- . : (, , 1984; , 1989) (,
, 1986) ,
(, 1970), (, , 1976),
.
(, , 1986) (, 1970).

(, , 1968, 1971; , 1973; Pastushkov, 1975). ,
. ( ),
.

(, 2005, 2006).
113

, -

(, 2006). . ,
, (, , ), ( , ).

.

.
,
- ()

(, 2008).
, , .

, ,
.

.
(34 ) 114
.

.

. , ,
, (1986);
, (1991, 1996); ,
(1992); . (1994, 1996).

,
,
,
,
.
.

.

.

,
. , .

.

115
. , , .
.
.
,
.
.
.
, ,
1980- (., , , (1988,
1989)), . ,
.
1990- , (., , , (1996); , ,
(2007); (2005); (2008); ,
(2005)), , , ,
.
2.

() .
116
. 1. ,
:
1) ;
2) ,
, , , ,
;
3) , ,
, ;
4) .
.
(), - , . 2. ,

: .
, .
.

, ,
( ),
( . 3). (

, ). .

( , , , , , ) , . II
.
117
. 1. .

, (. . 2).

, , ( ),
118
. 2. , -,
.
1 (
, ); 2 (
, ); 3 ( ); 4
(
, ); 5 ( , ); 6 ,
( , ); 7 , ( ); 8 , (
); 9 ( , ).
(, ).
.
.
,
: ( ),
. ,
(
).
119
3. .

, , ,
, . ,
.

.
:
1) ;
2) (
,

);
3) , ,
, , , ;
4) , . .

( );
5)
, ..
.
, .
. , ,
(Favre, 1969).
. (K-).
.
120
1.
+
vair,x ) +
vair,y + ( vair,z ) =
(
t x
y
z
= ( qc Vc,z ) + ( qic Vic,z ) + ( qr Vr,z ) + ( qi Vi,z ) ,

z
z
z
z
(1)
x, y, z ; t ;

(/3); vair,x , vair,y , vair,z -
(/); qc , qr ,

qic , qi , , ,
(, /); Vc,z , Vr ,z , Vic,z , Vi,z (/).
, (Favre, 1969).
2.
(1 qc qic qr qi )

vair,x
vair,x
vair,x

+ vair,x
+ vair,y
+
t
x
y
v
4 vair,x
+vair, z air,x
+
3 x
z
x
2 vair,y 2 vair,z
+
3 x
3 x
y
z
v
vair,y
air,x
y
y
y
x
vair,x vair, z

x
z
z
z
121
p
Ex ,
=
(2)
(1 qc qic qr qi )

vair,y
vair,y
vair,y

+ vair,x
+ vair,y
+
t
x
y
vair,y 4 vair,y
+vair,z
+
z
y
3 y
vair,y
2 vair,x 2 vair,z
+
x
z
x
x
3 y
3 y
(2)
vair,y
vair,x vair,z
p

Ey ,
=
z
z
x
y
z
y
y
(1 qc qic qr qi )

v
v
v
air,z + vair,x air,z + vair,y air,z +
t
x
y
vair,z 4 vair,z 2 vair,x

+vair,z
+
z
3 z
z
3 z
x
2 vair,y
vair,z vair,z
+
3 z
y
x
x
y
y
vair,x
vair,y
z
x
z
y
(2)
p
Ez g ,
=
z
; Ex, Ey, Ez ; ; g . (2)(2)

, :
, ( ).
-
100101 /, 100 /.
, (, 1987).
122
3.
air,x ) +
air,y + ( qv
air,z ) +
qv
( q ) + ( qv
t
x
y
z
q
q
q
K
K
x x y y z z
( qc Vc,z ) ( qr Vr ,z ) ( qic Vic,z ) ( qi Vi,z ) = 0,

z
z
z
z
(3)
q qv + qc + qic + qr + qi ,

qv , K
.
.
4. ,
,
q j +
q j vair,x +
q j vair,y +
q j vair,z +
t
x
y
z
q j
q j
q j
q j Vj,z = Fj ,
K
K
x x y y z
z z
( )
(4)
q j = {qc , qic , qr , , qi }; Vj = {Vc,z , Vic,z , Vr ,z , Vi,z } ; Fj = {Fc , Fic , Fr , , Fi } ,

Fc, Fic, Fr, Fi ,
, .
.
II .
qc , qic , qr , , qi 103104. (1 qc qic qr qi ) (2)(2)
. , .
123
Vc,z, Vic,z , Vr,z, Vi,z

.
, , (4),
(,
, , , .).
.
5.
( pvair,x )
air,x ) +
air,y + ( ev
air,z ) =
ev
( e ) + ( ev
t
x
y
z
x
pvair,y
) ( pvair,z ) +
vair,x xx ) +
vair,y xy +
(
x
x
x
x
vair,x xy +
vair,y yy +
vair,z yz +
+ ( vair,z xz ) +
x
y
y
y
(5)
T T
vair,y yz + ( vair,z zz ) +
+
+ ( vair,x xz ) +
z
x x y y
z
z

T
+
+ vair,z g + g ( Vc,z qc + Vic,z qic + Vi,z qi + Vr,z qr )
z z
qc Vc,z Lcond cv, pT + qr Vr ,z Lcond cv, pT +

z
+ qic Vic,z Lsubl cv, pT + qi Vi,z Lsubl cv, pT ,
; ii ij
; Lcond Lsubl ; cv, p
(
(
; e , (eint ) :
e = eint +
1 2
2
2
air,
vair,x + vair,
y +v
z .
2
124
(5) , .
6.
p = air RairT + v RvT = T (1 q ) Rair + ( q qc qic qr qi ) Rv , (6)
T =
eint + ( qc + qr ) Lcond + ( qic + qi ) Lsubl
v,V + ( qc + qic + qr + qi ) Rv

(1 q ) cair,V + qc
(6)
p T , Rair
Rv , Lcond Lsubl , cair,V cv,V .
7. , , ,
B ionn
)+
B
Bionn ( vair,x + ionn Ex ) +
v
+
y ionn air,y
x

+ ionn Ey +
B
v
+ ionn Ez )
z ionn ( air,z
B
B
B
K ionn
K ionn K ionn = Mionn ,
x
x
y
y
z
z
B ionp
t
)+

Bionp vair,x ionp Ex +
ionp Ey + B ionp vair,z ionp Ez

Bionp vair,y
y
B ionp
B ionp
B ionp
K
K
K
= Mionp ,
x
x
y
y
z
z
125
(7)
(7)
B j
)+
B j vair,x +
B j vair,y +
B j vair,z
t
x
y
z
B j
B j
B j
K
K
B j Vj,z = Mj .
x
x y
y z
z z
(7)
ionn ionp ; B ionn , B ionp , Bc , Bic , Br , Bi ,

, ,
;
Bj = {Bc , Bic , Br , Bi }; Mionn , Mionp , Mc , Mic , Mr , Mi , , , ; Mj = {Mc , Mic , Mr , Mi } .
,
( , ).

.

.
II .
8.
B = B ionn + B ionp + B c + B ic + B r + B i .
(8)
B

10131012 /3. , ,
109108 /3.
126

: 1)
; 2) .

102 / 105
106 / .

.

, .
, , .

101102 (
),
5 20 .

( ) () (t = 0). ,
.
.
()
(qr, qi, Br, Bi)
,
z = 0. ( ),
.

.
127
4.
(1)(7)
:
U
+ div F = H,
t
U , vair,x , vair,y , vair,z , qc , qr ,
qi , qic , e, Bionn , Bionp , Bc , Bic , Br , Bi ; F -

( ); H . .
(1), (2) (5)
(MacCormack,
1969) .
, , . , ,
( )
.

.

(, , 1980).
(
) :
Uin,j+,1k = Uin,j,k
t n
Fx, i +1,j,k Fxn,i,j,k
x
t n
Fy,i,j +1,k Fyn,i,j,k
y
t n
Fz,i,j,k+1 Fzn,i,j,k + tHin,j,k ,
z
128
Uin,j+,1k =
1 n
t n +1
n +1
Fx,i,j,k Fxn,i+11,j,k
Ui,j,k + Ui,j,k
2
x
t n +1
t n +1
Fy,i,j,k Fyn,i+,1j 1,k
Fz,i,j,k Fzn,i+,j1,k 1 + tHin,j+,1k ,
y
z
i, j, k x, y,
z; n t; F H F H .
(3), (4), (6) (7) WENO
(Bott, 1989, 1992).
9- 2- . , ,
.
,
x, y, z.
x, y, z, , 100200 , t 0,11,0 .
, ().
5.
.
. , ,
.
: 129
9,35 / z = 0...1 5,4 /

. 1 = 20 .
, 100 2/. 4 , 8 .
. 3
, , .
, , 15 , ,
.
Vmax /
30
(Vmax)
2000
1800
25
1600
1400
20
1200
15
1000
800
Vmax
10
600
400
200
0
1000
2000
tc
. 3. (Vmax)
(), .
130
, ( 19 /)
( 3 ) . 4
.
.
, (, , ,
2000). ,
, , , .
, , -
. 4. (/)
40 .
r , .
131
, . , . , , .
, ,
.

( ) II .
6.

(, 2002; Altaratz et al., 2005; Mansell et al.,

2005).
.
.
1. (
, , , .).
, .

.
.
2. ( , , , ).
, ,
,
.
132
3. , , .
,
(, 1979; , , 1986). , (1998), . (2007).
4. -
.
, ,
, . -
.
-,
. ,
Cu cong. Cb.
,
. . ,

.
, .
, , :
1)
( );
2) ;
3) ;
4) ;
133
5) ;
6) .
. 5
-
( ). :
1) ;
2) , ( 2,6 );
3) -;
4) ;
5) ;
6) ;
7) - ( 0,8 1,35 ).
.

: , ; ;
; ( ); (, ,
2004); ;
. .

,
.

. , - ,
. (1982).
134
. 5. , .
, (2001) (2001)

. ( 10 )

, .
135
- ( ., 2006)
300 , .

.

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,
, .
, .
(
, , , ,
), . ,
. .

(). . . .
.
136
.
.
.
( , , , ).

. . , . . , 1991. - //
. . 83. . 312.
. . , 1986. // . . 65. . 1321.
. . , . . , 1992.
. .: , 1992. 135 .
. ., . ., . ., . .,
1994. // . 1.
. 4148.
. ., . ., . ., . .,
1996. // . . 89. . 3747.
. . , . . , 1996. // . . . . 32, 3. . 364369.
. ., . . , . . , . . ,
. . , 1987. // . . 508. . 6582.
. . , . . , 1991. Cb // . . 538. . 109121.
. . , . . , . . , 2007.
, (, ) // . . .
. 43, 6. . 792806.
. . , 2005. // . 1. . 5869.
. . , 2006.
// . 9. . 2128.
137
. . , . . , 1984. . . 10. . 4552.

. . , . . , 2001
// (
). . 3(549). . 123131.
. . , 2001. - //
( ). . 3(549). . 147153.
. . , . . , . . , 2007.
. . 162 .
. ., . ., . ., . .,
. ., . ., . ., . .,
1997.
// . 11. . 2029.
. . , . . , 1998. . .: - . 322 .
. . , 2008.
// . . . . 44,
4. . 455469.
. . , 2006.
// . . .
. 42, 3. . 355366.
. . , . . , 1980. // , .
. . , . . , . . , 2000. //
. . 13, 67. . 592597.
. . , . . , . . , 1971. . .: . 92 .
. . , . . , 2004.
- .
( ). . 5(553). . 99120.
. . , 1978.
, // . . . . 14, 8. . 876886.
. . , . . , 1983.
( ) //
. . 45. . 320.
. . , . . , 1983. //
. . 45. . 2130.
138
. ., . . , 1998. // . .
. . 4, 1. . 3344.
. . , . . , 1986. . .: . 185 .
. ., 2002.
// ( ). . 4 (552). . 6675.
. . , 2006. . ( ). . 7(555).
. 3550.
. . , 1970. // . . 97. . 319.
. . , 1970. // . . 97. . 2029.
. . , 1973. // . . . . IX, 1. . 1226.
. . , 1973. -
( ) // . . 112. . 314.
. . , . . , 1968. // . .
. . IV, 3. . 283291.
. . , . . , 1971. - . V
, . IV, . 178192.
. . , . . , 1976.
. -74. . 1 / . . . . .: , . 502507.
. . , 2002. //
( ). . 4 (552). . 5565.
. . , 1979. . .: . 230 .
. ., . . , . . , . . ,
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// ( ). . 7
(555). . 139148.
. ., . , . ., . .,
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551.576

,

. . , . . , . .
. . .
, TRMM
: 1 = 2,17 , 2 = 0,32
3 = 0,85 .
, . ,
, .
SOME POSSIBILITY IMPRUVING QUALITY INFORMAITION

ABOUT RAINS OBTAINING BY SATELLITE RADAR
V. D. Stepanenko, V. N. Emeljanova, Yu. Dovgaljuk
The theoretical basis of multiwaves method of rain intensity

measuring, using microwaves attenuation, by satellite radar on
TRMM, operated simultaneously at 1 = 2,17 m, 2 = 0,32 m
3 = 0,85 m, is presented.
143
Calculation results of minimum rain intensity, which lesser than

threshold level of this one, impossible for measuring, are obtained.
The results received shown that the use of multiwaves method
gives substantial better quality of information on rain intensity
compared with that of estimated on the basis of radar reflectivity.
1997 . TRMM (Tropical Rainfall

Measuring Mission) 30 = 300...350 .
(Simpson, 1988). TRMM . (I)
,
, .
. (1999)

, ,
( = 300 ), TRMM.

,
Z.
.
. 1 TRMM, 1 = 2,17 ,
, 2 = 0,32 3 = 0,85 ,
Appendix (1990).
,
.
Simpson (1988) ,
,
, 30 . . 30 . .
144
1
TRMM

2,17
0,85
0,32
23
4
2
, t

1,7
3,3
3,2
,
4,0 1014 5,0 1014 6,0 10-14
, min
0,7
0,2
0,12
,
- ,
4
5
6,5
20;45
20;45
20;45
,
Z, 1 = 2,17 (), ().

, (Simpson, 1988).

, TRMM.
(1973), . (2002)
( I ) (w)
:
Z
Z
AB
( A B ) w ( 1 A 1B ) 10 lg 1 1
2 ( R2 R1 )
Z2 Z2 .
I=
( 2 A 2 B )
(1)
(A B) - ,
R1 R2, 1 2; A B ,
; 1A 1B w; 2A
2B .
145
: Z1 Z1 Z2 Z2
( ,
). (1)
.
I = 0 (1) w.
I 0, I
1 2 (1), ,
1 3 :
w=
( C C ) + ( 0 0 )
,
( 1 0 10 )
C=
( A B )
2 ( R2 R1 )
(2)
C =
( A B )
.
2 ( R2 R1 )
:
, 0, .
, (2) w, (1) I .

-. -
1 = 2,17 3 = 0,85 , 1 = 2,17
2 = 0,32 ( ),
3,0; 2,5; 2,0; 1,5 1,0 , (1)
Imin , I (R2 R1)
(. 2).
146
2
Imin (/),

( )
R2 R1
( )
0,5
1 = 2,17 ,
2 = 0,32
3,0
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
2,95
2,44
1,52
1,41
0,90
1,91
1,15
0,90
0,64
0,38
0,64
0,51
0,38
0,25
0,12
0,38
0,30
0,21
0,12
0,04
0,25
0,24
0,12
0,06
0,00
0,18
0,12
0,07
0,02
0
1 = 2,17 ,
3 = 0,85
3,0
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
12,90
11,10
9,10
6,62
3,31
6,30
5,42
4,50
3,20
2,02
3,00
2,70
2,00
1,70
0,91
1,90
1,70
1,30
0,91
0,77
1,61
1,20
0,91
0,85
0,57
1,10
0,90
0,80
0,45
0,23
. 2 ,
1 = 2,17 2 = 0,32
,
1 = 2,17 3 = 0,85 .
11,5 .
/, ,
( ., 1999).
.
(1973) ,

(Z/Z)max = 0,57,
(Z/Z) = 0,3.
-
1 4050 , :
147
(Z/Z)max = 83 %,
(Z/Z) = 40 %.
, Z = AIb. (I/I)max = (Z/Z + A/A)b1

.
Z = 220I1,6 (N = 500 3),
N(D) , , .
(1969), = 2...10 (I/I)max
220 %.
N N(D), : (I/I)max 600 %.
Imax , 1 = 2,17 3 = 0,85 ,
1 = 2,17 2 = 0,32 . ,
(1) ,
:
2 ( R2 R1 ) ( 1,a 1,b ) ( A B ) + 2 ( R2 R1 )
R ( 1,a 1,b ) + 1 ( R2 R1 )
I =
2
2 ( R2 R1 )( a b )
+
1,a
1,b ) 1 ( 1,a 1,b )
1,a
1,b )
(3)
(3) , w = 0,
0 (
) , ,

- ( ).
148
(3)

.
. 3 (, 1973).
(3)
Imax.
1 2. : R2 R1 = 5 ,
= 10 , R = 0,4 . 1 = 2,17 =
/
, 2 = 0,015 /. 3 = 0,85 1 =
= 0,03
/
/
; = 0,06 /. /
.
Imax . 4.
= 0,25
, /
1 = 0,013
2 = 0,14
3 = 0,06
1 = 2,17
2 = 0,32
3 = 0,85
/
/
1 = 0,03
2 = 1,00
3 = 0,25
4
Imax (/)

- ( )

1 = 2,17 , 2 =0,32
1 = 2,17 , 3 = 0,85
( )
1,0
1,5
3,0
0,17
1,43
0,22
1,65
0,31
2,33
149
. 4 I
Z
(I/I)max. , . 5 ( ., 2002).

. 4 I I , . 5. . 6.
5

,
I /

-
0,251,0
1,04,0
4,015,0
1550
0,63
2,6
9,6
32,6
, I /
6
(I/I)max (%)
- ( )
I /
0,63
2,6
9,6
32,6
( )
1,0
1,5
3,0
1,0
1,5
3,0
1 = 2,17 , 2 = 0,32
1 = 2,17 , 3 = 0,85
26,0
7,0
1,7
0,5
21,0
51,0
13,0
4,0
35,0
8,5
2,3
0,7
49,0
11,9
3,2
0,9
150
24,4
59,0
16,0
5,0
35,2
85,0
23,0
7,0
. 6
, , , ,
.
, , , ,
, .

. . , . . , 1969. . , . 13, . 2129.
. . , 1973. . .: . 343 .
. ., . ., . ., . . , . . , 1999. . , . 547, . 126138.
. . , . . , . . , 2002.
. 1619- . .
2. ., . 250254.
S i m p s o n J . , ed., 1988. Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) / NASA,
93 .
Workshop to evaluate the need for a rain radar in polar orbit for GEWEX. Appendix B. 1990, WCR-37, WMO/TD-N 369.
151
551.594.2/506.3

. .
. . .

.
.
,
.
STATISTICAL ESTIMATIONS OF VARIOUS
METEOROLOGICAL PHENOMENA INFLUENCE ON
ATMOSPHERIC ELECTRICAL POTENTIAL GRADIENT
I. B. Popov
Variability of an atmospheric electrical potential gradient affected by various meteorological phenomena is investigated on the
basis of long-term ground-based measurements data. A technique of
data analysis is presented. Obtained results can be applied for recovery of global electrical variations and also for development of
network observations data processing methods.

() 1958 . ,
152
(, , 1986; , , 1996),

().

(Harrison, 1997).
,
, , . ,
() ,
.

.

, , , , .
,
,
, ,
( ., 1998).

, . () , 153
.1
.

,

. , ,
, .
.

,
V 1966 2007 .,
1989
2007 .

,
,
. , . .
.
, . 1.
.
1
, , , , 6 /, 20 .
0 500 /.
154
1, ,
. ,

.

V,
V = ( V V0 ) V0 ,
V0 V. , V V0
V.
V,
( h, m ) V V95%
( h, m ) ,
V5%
( h, m ) V95%
( h, m )
V5%
, h m.
. , , V ,
, V0 .
,
, V ,
. 1
, .
155
, 1, , ,
.

. 1 V0 . ,
,
.
, (Israel, 1973).
V, . 1.

/ 101
, UT
. 1.
19662007 .
95 %- .
1

.1 .
156
V
( ),

. ,
, ;
. ,
V
.
V
. , 95- .
, .
V V 3000 /
, , . . 2, V ,
, , .
(
. 2), V .
, , 34 .
,
.
V . 3 . , V,
.
- .
157
158
61356
14196
15057
1151
3926
3777
328
1100
1336
718
2862
7713
2126
548
1257
3035
8766
16
748
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
0
1
2
3
0,25
0,41
0,31
0,13
0,48
1,99
0,91
1,60
1,76
2,03
1,67
0,21
0,54
0,16
0,52
0,07
0,33
0,48
0,20
0,43
0,45
0,01
0,12
0,43
0,39
0,79
1,00
1,00
1,12
0,37
0,27
0,54
0,12
0,39
0,05
0,23
0,38
0,17
1,82
1,73
1,66
1,75
2,07
5,37
1,26
2,22
2,90
2,76
4,80
0,96
1,38
0,65
1,06
0,79
1,25
0,79
0,80
.
.
8,25
8,05
13,12
16,77
16,23
10,86
14,43
20,10
27,93
7,33
25,96
11,92
13,31
2,13
10,56
20,81
15,18
5,18
3,34
37,58
16,47
23,04
31,00
33,69
30,17
3,17
7,65
18,32
1,02
13,09
6,87
7,75
3,09
6,13
21,01
17,58
6,86
3,63
11,38
1,25
3,45
5,67
3,20
1,83
1,94
2,56
1,72
0,92
1,36
1,84
0,81
0,56
0,01
1,00
1,27
0,86
0,22
200,27
16,7
31,99
63,04
57,18
4,74
15,31
10,44
8,48
0,54
4,12
35,86
7,66
3,02
8,04
71,63
19,63
3,5
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159

, ,
, ,
.
, , , ,
, . , , ,
.

. ,
,
, .
, ,
,
, ,

.
. . , .

. . , . . , 1992.
19161992 .
, 11, . 2028.
160
. . , . . , . . , 1998. . : - . 122 .
. . , . . , 1987. . , 7,
. 5964.
H a r r i s o n R . G . , 1997. Climate change and the global atmospheric electrical
system Atmos. Environ., V.31, p. 34833484.
I s r a e l H . , 1973. Atmospheric electricity (fields, charges, currents). Jerusalem, Israel Program for Scientific Translation, V. 2. 796 p.
161
551.58

,

. . , . . , . .
. . .

,
.
, .
, . , .
ESTIMATING METHODS FOR SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RISKS

CAUSED BY DANGEROUS WEATHER EVENTS
N. V. Kobysheva, L. P. Galuk, J. A. Panfutova

Empirical estimating methods for vulnerability and risk caused

by dangerous weather events are considered. The scope, duration
and aggressiveness degree of various weather events are estimated.
Economic risk is connected with GDP for one person. The example of
risk assessment caused by heavy hail on the Saratov region is given.

- , (),
.
162
, . , , . .
, 22.0.0395
( . . ).
,
, .

, , ,
, (, , - ), ,
, - ,
( , ,
,
. .) ( , 2005).
-
, . ,
70 %, 80 %, 60 %. ,
, , , , ,
, ( , 2005).
. . 10 .
.
, , - .
-
21 % .
163
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,

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, , , N ). , N . n
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(2); l , .
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(R)
:
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(2)
,
l si/S
.
s, Yi

Yi
= (si/S) (s/S).
(3)
,
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167
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, , . , -,
. (2001) .
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t ( ), .
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.
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, ), , , ,

2
V = mVmax
2,
(4)
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16.
(5)
25 / ( )
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,
, (. 1).
1
K

0,03
0,002
1,4
169
0,8
2,5
(./)
Yi
= pi
si s
klA (t),
S S
(6)
,
2007 . ( ).
Ri = pi
si s
.
S S
(7)
. 2
.
, , ,
(, , 2008).
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, . ,
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2

pi
S

si/S
m
K

Yi co
Y
R
170
0,2
100 200 2
100 2
15 105
2 594 000
3
350 400 .
<1
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3 108

, .

. . , . . , . . , 2004. - . , . 1, 2, .
125137.
. . , . . , . .
. , . 1, 2,
. 116124.
. . , . . , 2008. ,
. , . 557, . 225230.
22.0.0395. .
. .
. . , . . , 2001.
. .: .
. 5. . . 165167.
. . , 1996. -
1995 . , . 45, 4, . 447467.
, 2002. . . .: . 28 .
: , 2005 / . . . .
. . 392 .
. . , 2004. . , . 1, 2, . 106115.
171
551.588

KIPP&ZONEN
. . , . . , . . , . .
. . .

,
. 20042006 .
, .
ON COMPARISONS OF THE ACTINOMETRIC INSTRUMENTS

PRODUCED BY THE FIRM KIPP&ZONEN AND AUTHORIZED
INSTRUMENTS OF ROSHYDROMET
A. P. Bychkova, L. V. Lutsko, A. D. Lykov, S. A. Sokolenko
Results of comparison between net-radiometers CNR1

(Kipp&Zonen) and M-10 (Russia) in experimental site MGO in
Voeikovo during 20042006 years are considered. Analysis of observational data has shown mutual coincidence between pair of
actinometers, pyranometers and that of balansometers which fall
in the range of instrumental uncertainty.
,
Kipp&Zonen ().
172

. ,

Kipp&Zonen.
, , , , .

.
20042005 .
. Kipp&Zonen,
- . . .
2.
,
, . 1.
(. 1).
1
,

Kipp&Zonen
()
-3
21,
-80,
-6
21
-06
-80
CNR1
M-10M
173
. 1. Kipp&Zonen
)
CH1 -3, 21
:
21 -80,
, 1 -3,
,
Kipp&Zonen ( 2AP-G),

. ,
.. 21 5,
-80 10.
21 ( ).
174
. .
-80 -06, CG4; ,
21 -80; ; )
CNR1 () -10.
,
-80 -06 ( 6). CNR1
-10 .
.
6
Datalogger Combilog1020 ().
2 .
,
(/2), 175
. , 1 ,
.
6,
, - ,
, .
6, , .

( , ,
), ,
- (
, , .). ,
.

3 /2. , , 6 /2 .
Kipp&Zonen . ,

-3. ( 80 6)

-11. Kipp&Zonen ,
10, .
,
176

(0,6 % 1,2 % ).

Kipp&Zonen , .
3.
1 -3
2004 .,

.

.

. 2 , kS,
,
1, , -3.
18 812.
50- ,
kS
1- .
kS , () 50- .
kS . kS
( -3 ,
1). 300 /2 kS ,
kS ,
700 /2 ( ), kS
177
178
. 2. 50- , (1); kS 1 -3 (2)

kS (3).
( -3 , 1).
(
1 ) ,
1 -3
,
, . 3 . ,
30 /2, ( 6 /2).
. 3 ( ), . . 2, -3 , 1, .
SCH1 /2
)
S3 /2
. 3. 1 ( ) -3 ( ) () () .
179
,
, .
,
, . ,
. 3
. ,

( ).

, .
2004 .,
4 . . 4, , , . 2 3 ,
: -3 , 1, .
-3 1 -3.
-3 10, 1 5,
,
, -3,
, .
-3
, , .
. 2 1 -3 180
SCH1 /2
1000
900
800
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000 S3 /2
. 4. , 1 -3 .
, ,
. 4,
S1 = 1,0454S3 26,383,
(1)
S1 S3 , 1 -3 (/2).
. 2 , 400 /2,
(, 1997) ( 3 %), ,
- .
181
2
(1) , -3 (S3) 1
(SH1), S3
S3 /2
SH1 /2
SH1 S3 /2
150
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
950
1000
130
183
287
392
496
601
705
810
914
967
1019
20
13
17
13
8
4
1
5
10
14
17
19
8,7
4,3
2,1
0,7
0,1
0,8
1,2
1,6
1,8
1,9
(SH1 S3)/S3 %
(2),
(S), :
S 2, 1,
, , -3, 0,003, S
0,006.
, , .
,
( -3 6108),
SH1 S3 , . 2.
, 200 /2 -3 , 1
12 /2 (5,9 %), 1000 /2
11 /2 (1,1 %). SH1 S3
.
182

0,5 % 600700 /2. .
1
13 ,
.
4.

. 5
, 21 -80
(, ,
.) 2004 . , .
QC /2
)
Q /2
. 5. 21 -80
() ()
2004 .
183

-80 -21.
, . 3 , . 5
,
.
. 5
Q = 0,9429Q 0,2023,
(2)
Q Q , 21 -80 (/2).
(. 5 ) 23 ,
.

Q = 0,9553 Q + 1,5919.
(3)
, (2) (3),
. 3. , ,

-80 ,
21. Q Q
, .
. 3
-80 (, 1997),
, . : ; ,
; .
, . .
.
184
3
(2) (3) , -80 (Q) 21 (Q), (Q Q)
Q
Q
/2
10
50
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
Q
/2
Q Q
/2
(Q Q)/Q
%
Q
/2
Q Q
/2
(Q Q)/Q
%
9
47
94
188
283
377
471
566
660
754
848
943
1
3
6
12
17
23
29
34
40
46
52
57
8
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
11
49
97
193
288
384
479
575
670
766
861
957
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1
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12
16
21
25
30
34
39
43
11
2
3
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4
4

(-
) , , 2005 .,
. ,
, (. 6).
. 6
(QCM/QM) , 20 . . , :
QCM/QM = const = 0,9339.
(4)
QCM/QM 12 29 . 6 .
185
Q/Q
1,20
1,00
0,80
0,60
0,40
0,20
0,00
0
100
Q/Q
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
/2
1000 Q1100
Q/Q
. 6. 21 -80
.
Q,
, h.
,
QCM/QM :
QCM/QM = const = 0,9548.
186
(5)

QCM/QM h . 6 . ,
QCM/QM = 0,0002h + 0,9472,
(6)
, .
-80 21 5
6 %, , 2004 .
, , ,
: -80 , 21
Kipp&Zonen,
( 0,5 %).

. 3: -80 21
6 %
4 % .
2005 . 21 : 6 3 Kipp&Zonen, -80 6.

10 53 11 29 .
3- 21. , 21.
. 4, .
187
4
Q, 6,
3, -80 6
21 (Q), 21
QCM
/2
20
50
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
-80
Q
,
Q
,
,
Q
,
Q
/2
%
/2
%
%
/2
%
/2
25
55
107
210
313
416
518
621
724
827
930
23,1
11,0
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3,7
3,6
3,5
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24
55
106
209
312
414
517
620
723
826
929
19,0
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6,0
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3,9
3,6
3,5
3,3
3,3
3,2
3,2
21
50
99
196
294
392
489
587
685
782
880
2,8
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1,3
1,8
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2,1
2,1
2,2
2,2
2,2
2,2
22
51
99
196
293
390
488
585
682
779
876
8,8
1,7
0,6
1,8
2,2
2,4
2,5
2,6
2,6
2,7
2,7
6 3
21 23 %. -80 6
21 3 % .
5.

,
21 -80
2004 . , , . 7.
18 . .
40 /2.
( ).
D = 0,9977D 9,6074,
(7)
2
D, D (/ ), 21 -80 .
188
Q /2
600
500
400
300
200
100
M80
0
0
100
200
300
400
500
Q600
/2
. 7. , -80 21
2004 .
-80 21 10 /2, .
,
,
0,3 % -80 1,2 %
21. -80
D 0,9 % , 21,

(. 5).
. 5 ,

, .
, -80
21, , .
189
5
(7)
21 (D), (DM)
-80, (D D)

DM /2
D
/
10
50
100
200
300
400
500
600
3,4
43,3
93,2
192,9
292,7
392,5
492,2
592,0
6,6
6,7
6,8
7,1
7,3
7,5
7,8
8,0
D D
D D
/2
66,3
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194,6
295,2
395,9
496,5
597,2
6,6
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1,6
1,0
0,7
0,5
6.
, 2004 .,
-10 CNR1,
,
.
, CNR1 :
3
CG3. , CNR1,
.
,
-10 CNR1 , ,
, 3 -80
.
CG3 ,
CG4 Kipp&Zonen ( , CG3) ,
(, 1957), 190
( 5 %). , ,

CNR1 -10, .
CNR1,
, ,
: 6 CG4
Kipp&Zonen, .

.
6 CG4 ,
CNR1 180
, .
CNR1:
3, ,
11 % , 6 % ,
6;
G3, ,
10 %, 12 % ,
G4;
G3, ,
11%, 10 %, G4.
CNR1 2004 . 2005 . , (). -10
. 8 . , CNR1.
10 ,
. 20 , .
191
Y /2
800,0
700,0
600,0
500,0
400,0
300,0
200,0
100,0
0,0
100,0
100,0
200,0
300,0
400,0
500,0
600,0
700,0 /2
100,0
200,0
. 8. ,
-10 CNR1, ( )
CNR1 ( ).

( 60 /2) ( 150 /2).
, -10.
. 8 , CNR1 -10:
CNR1
Y1 = 0,8617 6,724,
(8)

Y2 = 1,0204 + 9,9128,
192
(9)
Y1 Y2 CNR1 (/2),
;
-10 (/2).
,
. 6. -10
. (8)
(9) Y1 Y2
CNR1. , -10.
,
Y1 ,
(8).
6
-10
CNR1,
(8) (9)
(Y1) ,
(Y2),
, (/2)
-10
/2 Y1 /2
100
50
0
50
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
93
50
7
36
79
166
252
338
424
510
596
683
Y1 (Y1 )/
Y2 /2
/2
%
7
0
7
14
21
34
48
62
76
90
104
117
7
0
27
21
17
16
16
15
15
15
15
193
92
41
10
61
112
214
316
418
520
622
724
826
Y2
/2
(Y2 )/
%
8
9
10
11
12
14
16
18
20
22
24
26
8
18
22
12
7
5
5
4
4
4
3
CNR1 ,
-10,
.
, (9), . Y2
, Y1 ,
. Y2 26 /2,
-10. -10.
,
CNR1 .
,
.
, , ,
. 9, Y /2
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
100
100
100
200
300
400
500 /2
200
. 9. , CNR1 (Y) -10 ().
194
. -
1 (. . 8).
,
, ,
20042005 . , CNR1 -10
. , .
1. 2004 .
1 -3 12 /2,
. ,
400 /2, ( 3 %). 600700 /2. .
.
2. (2), 1,

0,003, -3, 0,006.
3. -80
, 21: 6 %, 4 %.
,
.
4. 21 -80

, .
195
5.
6 3
21 23 %.
-80 6 21 3%
.
6.
, , , -80
21, , .
7. , CNR1 -10, , CNR1 ,
.
7.
Kipp&Zonen
.

1 3
.

.
Kipp&Zonen - . . , ,
, .

52.04.56296, 1997.
. . 5. . . 1. . .: .
. . , 1957. . .: .
196
551.510.42

. .
. . .

( () )

m . .
. m . m
m
.
ON SOME FEATURES OF CALCULATION OF THE LONG-TERM
AVERAGED CONCENTRATIONS OF PARTICULATE MATTER
FROM GROUND SOURCES
E. A. Yakovleva
The relationships between total monthly emissions (m) of windblown sodium sulfates and monthly averaged meteorological
parameters are analyzed by the example of one large industrial dust
source (crystallizing pond of mirabilite (CPM) in Altay Region).
197
The methods for taking into account these relationships for the
calculation of the long-term averaged concentrations of sodium
sulfate are discussed and the results of the statistical analysis of
these relationships are given. The nature of correlation relationships
between m and monthly averaged meteorological parameters is
discussed. The formulae for calculation of m and corresponding
mean which take into account the typical for CPM correlations
between m and monthly-averaged air temperature are presented.
(, .)

.
, ,

(, , ), .
. . .
C , ( ., 1979; ., 1998; ., 1999).
,
, , C(r, ) r

C(r, ) = MC (r, ) p()d,
(1)
C (r, ) ( 2030 )
r
; p() ,
. M 198
,
,
.
p()
. (1979, 1984), . (1998).
(1).
, , .
(, ) , . , -
.
. ,
. C(r, ), , ,
, , ,
.

.

() ( , ).
. . . . () - 199
.
19951997 .
.
, . . . . ,
. m (/ Na2SO4)

, ( ).
, , , m
um, Im m.

(Na2SO4).
(Na2SO4 10H2O),
.

.
6 2.
.
( 12 )
(Na2SO4).

.
, ,
.
.
200

. , , ,
150 .
.
10 / 7 %.
,
2025 .

... (2001).

. m
, ,
- .
,
. . 1
m
m .
, .
m

1995 . 1997 . ( 1997 .
). . 1 R m
.
1
R m , 1995 . 1997 .
.......
R ................
m
0,9
201
m
0,78
Im
0,57
um
0,47
um max
0,19
Mm /
400
Mm
Tm
Tm C
40
300
30
20
200
10
0
100
10
0
20
I
IV
VII
1995
IV
VII
X
I
V
VIII
1996
1997
. 1. m m.
XI

m m. .
, ,
, .

. m m (. 1 2).

m m. , m
.
m
Im ( R = 0,57). ,
, ,
Im Tm. , -, Tm .
, ,

. -, 202
Mm /
400
y = 8,27x + 120,07
R2 = 0,82
300
200
100
0
25
15
15
25 Tm C
. 2. m Tm.
m Im , m ,
.
, m um , ,
.
Mm (.
. 1) um , . 1995 .
, 1996 . .
,
.

( ) .
21 1992 .
q (/3) ( Na2SO4) 307 /3
734 /3 . u 9 20 /. L = 700 203
q 30 /3.
u, , 9 /.
24
1999 . ,
,
. ,
. 2030 30 .
1015 .

.
.
600 ,
50 .
1,5 57 /.
, ,
u = u, 57 /.
, 7 / , , .
, , , , , ,
, .
Tm. ,
Tm m 0,78, Tm Im 0,57.
,

m
204
Tm.

m . M
Tm
m
. 3.
:
= M0 exp(Tm),
M
m
(2)
M0 : M0 = 97,945 /,
= 0,0572 1.
(2) m , .
. 4 (2)
m c
(. 4 ) m e (. 4 ) M
m
. , , (2) , m M
m
. R
m 0,94 0,95 . 0,81 0,89 .
y = 97,945e0,0572x
R2 = 0,92
/
M
m
400
300
200
100
25
15
15
m.
. 3. M
m
205
25 Tm C
Mm c /
)
400
300
200
y = 0,89x + 15,13
R2 = 0,90
y = 0,81x + 30,89
R2 = 0,88
100
0
0
100
200
300 Mm / 0
100
200
300
/
M
me
. 4. () () m e m .
, , , ,

. ,
, , (1)
:
C(r, ) = Mm (Tm )C (r; u, ) p(, u, , Tm )duddTm .
(3)
m (,u,)
p(,u,,Tm) :
p(,u,,Tm) = p1(Tm)p2(,u,).
(4)
(3)
(r,) = M*a(r,),
(5)
M* ,
M* =
Mm (Tm ) p1 (Tm )dTm ,

206
(6)
a(r,) = C (r; u, ) p2 (, u, )dud.
(7)
M* 1995
1998 . Tm
p1 (Tm ) = 10,3 107 Tm3 + 6,52 105 Tm2 9,61 105 Tm + 0,0154
12,4 Tm < 29.
(8)
(8) Tm 1 = 0.
(2) (8) (6),
,
M*
235,2 /,
= 18,5 .
(r,)
,
. ,
(6)
, 11,5 ,
1,3 . , (2006).
,
a(r,) (7) u . p2(,u,)
:
p2(,u,) = p()p(u)p(),
(9)
p() ( p() = 1/2); p(u), p()

u .
207
(r,) . ,
u
. , , . 5 ,
(. 5 ) u 7 /
(. 5 ) ( , 19951998 .).

, . . .

a(r,)
(, , 2008).
a(r,)
.
, , , ,
)
. 5. (%) ()
u 7 / ().
208
.

,
u,
, ,
,
(, , 2001, 2002).
,
, , , .
, ,
. ,
, u.
.

.
,
.
.
, , ,

. , ,
.
. 209
,
,

.
- . . . . .

. ., . ., . ., . .,
. . , 1979. . , . 417, . 318.
. . , . . , . . , 1984.
. , . 479, . 317.
. ., . ., . ., . .,
. ., . ., . ., . ., . . , . . , 1998. , . , . 549, .1131.
. . , . . , . . , 1999.

. .: . . . . 150- . .
. 1. .: , . 8498.
. . , . . , 2001.
.
. 2 (24) , . 747.
. . , . . , 2002.
. .:
.
80- . . . . .: , . 7699.
. . , . . , 2006. . .
2 (34) , . 78125.
. . , . . , 2008.
.
, . 557, . 184196.
, 2001/ .
. . . .: - . 444 .
210
551.510.04

. . , . . , . .
. . .
,
. , . 18 1990 2004 .
,

.

, 60 %
5,0, 3,2. .
.
ON THE PROBLEM OF ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITATION
ACIDIFICATION IN RUSSIAN ARCTIC
N. . Pershina, . I. Polischouk, P. F. Svistov
The analysis of monitoring network at chemical atmospheric

precipitation data at the territory of Russia is presented. This monitoring is regularly provided by Roshydromet. The general attention
has been paid to the content of sulfur and nitrogen and also to pH
211
quantity in atmosperic precipitation. Data of 18 stations in Russian

Arctic region over a period of 19902004 was analyzed.
The results lead us to a conclusion that in recent years there
had been no precipitation process acidification in Russian Arctic.
Precipitation with increased acidity was observed only in Kola
Peninsula, where pH quantity has value of 5.0 in 60 % cases and
in some cases reaches 3.2. Acidity changes in Atlantic and Syberia
regions tend toward certain reduction. In Pacific region theres no
acidity trend observed.
1991 . Arctic Environment Protection

Srategy (AEPS),
.
AEPS ( , AMAP,1997 AMAP,1998) (), (Arctic
Monitoring and Assessment Programme)
. : Human Health, Influence of
Global Climate on Contaminant Pathways, Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs), Radioactivity, Heavy Metals.
. 1.
20052006 . Acidifying Pollutants, Arctic Haze, and Acidification in the Arctic Acidification and Arctic Haze (AMAP Assessment, 2006).
15- 1990 2004 . .
.
( ) , .
212
. 1. .
, ,
, , .
213
, 4,0. 4
.
, , ,
. , (, 2003).
,

, .
,
.
,
(5,65).
AMAP (AMAP Assessment, 2006)
SO2 NO 19922004 .
1992 2004 .
SO2 ,
. SO2
2000 . ,
2004 . 20 . SO2
, , , 2001 . SO2
( 1994
1998) 2002 . .

,
.
, .
214
18
1990 2004 . :
, , , , , ,
-;

, , ,
, , , , . ,
1962 .
BAPMoN ,
() ;
, -, .

,
,
( ,
2006): , , , -, ,
, , , - . .

, (
) () . , ,
.

.
.
215
216

(NO3)
(NH4)
N
0,20 0,02 0,59 0,05 0,01 0,12 0,19 0,03 0,54 0,24
0,68 0,23 2,23 0,14 0,01 0,67 0,56 0,04 2,62 0,70
4,00
4,23
1,88
3,74
2,19
0,41 0,04 1,67 0,07 0,00 0,42 0,28 0,04 1,25 0,35
0,18 0,04 0,40 0,02 0,00 0,06 0,15 0,00 0,58 0,17
7,67
4,00
()
0,60 0,12 2,49 0,13 0,01 0,61 0,55 0,02 3,20 0,68
0,65 0,33 1,40 0,27 0,07 0,68 0,50 0,05 1,21 0,77
0,43 0,02 1,40 0,16 0,01 0,68 0,35 0,03 1,21 0,51
. .
1,07 5,26 4,64 6,59
1,17 5,63 4,64 6,59
0,97 6,50 5,10 7,50
0,88 6,10 4,90 7,10
0,85 5,99 5,50 6,60
0,83 5,38 4,35 6,23
0,84 5,70 4,35 6,60
N(NO3 ) S/N
N(NH4 )
( )
. .
. .
. .
(S)
, (/)
19902004 .
217
0,84 0,20 4,00 0,10 0,02 0,33 0,37 0,06 1,62 0,47
1,10 0,02 1,78 0,40 0,00 0,59 0,80 0,00 1,36 1,20
0,70 0,12 2,65 0,20 0,01 0,68 0,30 0,01 3,20 0,50
0,80 0,20 3,88 0,25 0,01 1,73 0,80 0,03 2,62 1,05
0,40 0,13 1,49 0,12 0,01 0,34 0,35 0,01 1,70 0,47
0,64 0,27 1,07 0,11 0,00 0,24 0,42 0,03 0,93 0,53
3,20
1,50
2,00
3,70
2,92
3,71
0,76 6,40 5,00 7,70
1,40 6,00 4,70 7,30
0,92 5,50 4,20 7,10
1,79 6,40 5,60 7,10
0,85 6,20 5,20 7,20
1,19 6,00 5,10 7,00
, : . ,
.

, .
25 78 .

.

.
400500 , 5 65 .
,
( 90%)
.

1,8 /. 70 %
2,0 / (. 2 ). 17 10 /, 23,3 /. ,
(,
, ). , , 0,4 /, 1,1 / (. ).

, ,
.

(. 2 ) (. 2 ).
(
)
0,89 /. 16,85 /.
218
%
80
%
100
90
70
80
60
70
50
60
40
50
30
40
30
20
20
10
0
0
1,94
3,89
5,83
7,78
9,72
11,67
13,61
15,56
17,50
19,45
21,39
0
0,89
1,78
2,68
3,57
4,46
5,35
10
35
30
30
25
25
20
20
15
15
10
10
0
0,24
0,48
0,73
0,97
1,21
1,45
1,69
1,93
2,18
2,42
2,66
100,20
114,48
128,77
0
57,33
71,62
85,91
0
0,19
14,47
28,76
43,05
, /
, /
. 2. (%)
.
, ( ), . ( ), . ( ).
219
%
60
50
40
30
20
10
7,0
5,3
3,5
1,8
0
, /
. 2. .
.
87 %
30,060,0 /, 143,1 /.
, . ,
( ).

( 5060 /), .
(, ,
) 0,12
2,65 /,
(. ).
( ).
0,61 / (. 2 ),
2,9 /. 85 %
1,0 /.
220
,
(. 3).
, 5060 , 10 .
1,4 /. 85 %
1,7 /
(. 2 ), 5 /.
/
/
60,0
1,0
55,0
0,9
50,0
0,8
2
40,0
0,7
1
35,0
45,0
0,6
30,0
0,5
25,0
20,0
0,4
I
II
III
IV
VI VII VIII IX
XI XII
. 3. (/) (1) (2).
221

, 0,31 /. (
1,5 /) 13 .
3,61 / (. 4 ). (, , ) 85 % 0,1 0,7 / (. ).
94 % 2,3 / (. 4 ).
( 6,5 /) , , ,
.

70 % 0,2 / (. 4 ).

(. ).
0,2 /. 0,14 / (. 4 ).

1,7 /.

1 /. 86 % 1,4 / (. 5 ).
20 4 /,
16,64 /.
,
, 0,5 / (. 5 ).

5,0 /, , ,
, .
0,3 /, 1,38 /, 0,01 /.
222
%
70
%
100
90
60
80
50
70
60
40
50
30
40
30
20
20
10
10
60
4,37
3,27
2,18
0,55
0
0,30
0,60
0,90
1,20
1,51
1,81
2,11
2,41
2,71
3,01
3,31
25
1,64
50
20
40
15
30
10
20
5
10
0
0,14
0,27
0,41
0,54
0,68
0,81
0,95
1,08
1,22
1,35
0
0,21
0,42
0,64
0,85
1,06
1,27
1,48
1,69
1,91
2,12
2,33
, /
, /
. 4. (%) .
, , . ( ), .
223
%
100
%
100
90
80
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
0
1,39
2,77
4,16
5,55
6,94
8,32
9,71
11,10
12,48
13,87
15,26
0
2,28
4,56
6,84
9,13
11,41
13,69
15,97
18,25
20,53
22,82
25,10
90
, /
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
0,73
1,46
2,18
2,91
3,64
4,37
5,10
5,83
6,55
7,28
0
, /
. 5. (%)
.
, , .
224
90 %
, ,
0,1 0,5 0,1 0,4 /
(. ).

0,64 /. 75 % 0,7 /
8,0 / (. 5 ).
,
, (. ).

. 4,6 6,7.
(. 6 ).
= 5,6. ,
3,6, 27 7,4. (Salminen, 2004).

-
.
, . . , .
. . (. 6 ).
3,2 6,0. 80 % 5,4.
. . . 7

. ,

.
225
%
16,0
%
45
40
14,0
35
12,0
30
10,0
25
8,0
20
6,0
15
4,0
7,7
3,9
7,0
0
6,2
0,0
5,4
5
3,6
3,9
4,3
4,6
5,0
5,3
5,7
6,0
6,4
6,7
7,1
7,4
2,0
4,6
10
50
45
45
40
6,6
3,2
6,1
0
5,5
4,9
5
4,3
10
7,6
15
10
6,7
20
15
5,8
25
20
5,0
30
25
4,1
35
30
3,8
40
35
. 6. (%) .
, , ,
. ( ).
226
.
4,8
y = -0,2342x + 5,094
R 2 = 0,8317
4,7
4,6
4,5
4,4
4,3
4,2
1,5
2,5
3,5
, /
. 7.
. .

( ., 2001).
6,7. 80 % 6,2
7,0 (. 6 ). 3,9 20 7,7.

5,9.
. 60 % 6,7
7,2 (. 6 ). ( = 7,6).
, 5,0 ( ),
.
-

( )
. 8.
227
, /
1,2
1,0
0,8
0,6
0,4
0,2
0,0
, /
0,9
0,8
0,7
0,6
0,5
0,4
0,3
0,2
0,1
0,0
. 8. (/) (),
()
, ()
().
228
,
1,4 ,
.
.
.
,
(., , (2003)), . . 9 , 1990 2004 .
4,3 4,7, . .
.
, 1991 2007 ., . 10.
(,
) .

.
. pH
7,0
6,5
6,0
5,5
5,0
4,5
4,0
20044
20033
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
19945
19934
19923
19900
3,0
1991
3,5
. 9. 1990 2004 .
229
, /
7,0
S(SO4)
6,0
N(NO3)
5,0
N(NH4)
4,0
3,0
2,0
1,0
0,0
8,0
, /
7,0
6,0
5,0
4,0
3,0
2,0
1,0
0,0
)
5,0
4,0
3,0
2,0
1,0
0,0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
, /
6,0
. 10. S(SO4) ,
N(NO3) , N(NH4)
19912007 .
, , .
230
. ,

.
, 60 %
5,0 3,2.
,
.
() . .

.

: ,
1998. .: . 188 .

19861990 ., 1994. .: .
1991
1995 ., 1998. .: .
1996
2000 . ( ), 2006. .: . 226 .
, 1991. .:
. .
. . , 2003. : , . .: . 276 .
. . , 1997.
// 1996 . .: .
. ., . . , . . , . . ,
2004. .
// 2003 . .: , . 4751.
. ., . . , . . , . . ,
2005. // -
231
2003 . .: .
. ., . . , . . , . . ,
2005. // 2004 . .:
, . 3842.
. . , . . , . . , 2007.
. //
2005 . .: ,
. 4143.
. ., . . , . . , . . ,
2 0 0 6 . // 2005 . .:
, . 3842.
. . , . . , . . , 2007. //
2006 . .: ,
. 4448.
. . , . . , . . , 2001. . .:
. . 2. .: , . 294310.
AMAP Assessment Report, 1997. Arctic pollution issues: A state of arctic environment // Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme. Xii+188 p.
AMAP Assessment Report, 1998. Arctic pollution issues // Arctic Monitoring
and Assessment Programme. Xii+859 p.
AMAP Assessment Report, 2006. Acidifying pollutants, Arctic haze, and acidification in Arctic // Arctic Monitoring and Assessment Programme. 112 p.
P e r s h i n a N . A . , P o l i s c h u k A . I . , S v i s t o v P . P h . , 2006. Arctic pollution 2006. Acidification and Arctic haze. Oslo, p. 7.
P e r s h i n a N . A . , P o l i s c h u k A . I . , S v i s t o v P . P h . , 2006. AMAP Assessment 2006: Acidifying pollutants, Arctic haze, and acidification in Arctic.
Oslo, p. 1720.
S a l m i n e n R . et al., 2004. Geochemical Atlas of Eastern Barents Region.
Elsevier. 348 p.
S v i s t o v P . P h . , P e r s h i n a N . A . , C h i c h e r i n S . S . , 1993. Distribution
of maximum acidity and mineralization of precipitation on Russion Federation territory / WMO, Technikal conf. Sofia, Bulgaria.
232
551.510.04

-

--

. . , . .
. . .
50 , 20002001 . - . ,
,
,
. , , , .
, .
AN ASSESSMENT OF CHEMICAL COMPOUND
OF ATMOSPHERIC PRECIPITATION IN NORTH-WESTERN
FEDERAL REGION OF RUSSIA AND FINLAND, BASED
ON THE RESULTS OF INTERNATIONAL
RUSSIAN-FINNISH-NORWEGIAN PROJECT
ECOGEOCHEMISTRY OF BARENTS REGION
N. P. Pershina, A. I. Polischouk
The results of measurements of about 50 chemical compounds

of atmospheric precipitation, derived during 20002001 in NorthWestern Federal Region of Russia and Finland in the co-operative
233
international experiment are considered. These results prove that

industrial plants influence extends not only on precipitation falling nearby the plants but also on considerably remote distance.
Certain zones with increased content of harmful substances such
as Be, Cd, F are detected. The load on the underlying surface with
moist fallouts of sulfur and nitrogen is estimated.

, - , 19992003 .
,
-- .
1,55 . 2 50 . , , ( , ), ,
-,
30 .
(Salminen R. et al., 2004), ,
.
,
,
.

, .

(, ) (,
1966; , 1979). . , .
234
2000 . 2001 . -- 30 , -
(25 ) ( ),
.
,
(Volden, 1999).
,
(, 1989). .
, . . 1.
. 1. .
235
. ,
. . ( 100 ). ,
:
(

(XDPE) , , .).

() 43 .
, , .
. .

,
0,45 .
(Salminen R. et. al., 2004): ,
, ,
ICP-MS.
. . . (, 2003).
. , ,
, . (. 1). 60 %.
, (International comparison, 1999).
236
237
4
66
13
1
40
50
51
47
46
52
33
16
18
36
20
24
23
19
10
7
7 11 13
41 2 19
0
3
38 37 43 26 26
13 31 28 22 46
64 38 14 22 58
13 19 12 6
25
9
9 14 12 12
7 20 17 2 1 6
23
8 7
5 29 8
9
2 6
5
5 8
32 16 11 3 1 23
33 9 34 7 22
2
40 38 24 11 25 15
32 28 39 56 29 29
56 59 40 32 55 55
37 47 32 54 67 37
39 23 4 22 21 44
25 9
5 21 38 28
11
12
9
5
17
40
30
5 10 22 24 17 14 20 25 25 17 15
19
22
21 5
0
0 32 14 19 1
3 66 6 12 6
5 23 5 3 2
18
0 31 17 14
15 53 43 44 42
19 75 39 16 26
28 40 4 35
53 21 25 12
33 20 38 52
41 10 20 37
12 8 28 54
13
2001
57
6
26
16
4
6
4
3
18
13
14
0
44
2000
, (S) (S),
(S) ( )
,
.
()
(Manual for the GAW Precipitation, 2004).
, ,
: , (SO42 , Cl, NO3 , K+, Na+, Mg2+, Ca2+), .

() (Manual..., 2004).

(
) , .
. 2
33 .
3,516,5 /. -
(, 2007).
,
50 /. ,
, 60 % . , 0, 07 2 /, .
. 2 -
,
1 5 %. , , ,
,
13 35 %.
, ,
238
/, %
60
/
2,5
1
50
40
2
1,5
30
1
20
0,5
10
Kuhmo
Taivalkoski
Sarkisalo
Vuotso
Laukaa
. 2. (1, ) (2, ) (%) (3).
. 10 000 , .

.
. 3
.
( 0,7 0,9 /) (
12,7 7,2 /). , .
1 / (
(), 2003).
, 10 ,
.
. , 239
[Pb] /
[Cd] /
14,0
1,2
12,0
1,0
10,0
8,0
6,0
0,8
0,6
0,4
4,0
0,2
0,0
0,0
Kuhmo
Taivalkoski
Sarkisalo
Vuotso
Laukaa
2,0
. 3. (1) (2) .
(3) .
.

: , .

1,8 2,0 /.

(. 4). . ,
.
90 % , .
1077 /,
(1200 /). 240
/
100,0
90,0
80,0
1
405,3
70,0
60,0
1077,17
2
287,3
161,7
50,0
40,0
30,0
20,0
10,0
0,0
Al
Ba
Be
Bi
/ /
Fe
Li
10
Sb
10
Sr
Si
. 4. (1), (2).
,
104 /.

.
28 14 . ,
, , , , , . ,
( 1). 161,7 /, . .
( 200 /). (
, , /);
10.)
(. 5) , ,
, 241
/
1
140
120
100
164,0
394,4
425,1
688,1
80
60
40
20
0
Al
Ba
Be
/
Cr
Fe
Mn
Pb
Sr
Th Tl
U
/ / /
Zn
Si
. 5. (1), (2).
, ( 80 % ). 15 , 11 . ( 1) ,
/. , , , ( 23 4 ).
(. 6) ,
, , ,
. ,
133 , 122 ,
80 .
, , , 20
.
,
. ,
, , 242
/
120,0
100,0
270,6
80,0
320,5
119,8
256,5
294,0
261,2
60,0
40,0
20,0
0,0
Al
As
Ba
Cd
Co
Cr
Cu
Fe
Ni
Pb
Zn
Si
. 6. (1), (2).
2,11 / (

).
. 7 . ,
.
,
, ,
.
/
700
600
500
70
60
50
400
40
300
30
200
20
100
10
0
I
II
III
IV
V
VI VII VIII IX
X
XI XII
. 7. (1) (2).
243
, /
, ,
,
(. 8).
, , , ,
. . 9

.
, .

. 10. 20 %,
36 % .
( 30 %), , ,
. , ,
( ) (
),
.
, -
, , ,
80,0
70,0
60,0
50,0
40,0
30,0
20,0
10,0
0,0
Cu
Fe
Zn
. 8.
(1), (2).
244
70
50
40
6
30
4
20
10
0
I
800
II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII
250
Br
Br
Mg2+
Mg 2+
Na
Na
Cl
Cl
700
, /
, /
60
10
600
500
200
150
400
100
300
200
50
100
0
, , /
, ,
/
12
0
I II III IV V VI VII VIII IX X XI XII
. 9. , , ()
().
245
/
25
/
140
120
20
100
2
15
80
60
10
40
20
Cd
Pb
Br
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Proceedings of Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory

the forecasts over Russia using different models, including MGO

22,5 L20 OI + IAU

Bureau of Meteorology Research

Institute of Atmospheric Physics

Japan Meteorological Agency

Korea Meteorological Administration

Center for OceanLand-Atmosphere

International Research Institute

National Aeronautics and Space

90 120 150 180 150W 120W 90W 60W 30W

90 120 150 180 150W 120W 90W 60W 30W

/ . 30, 2003, . 320.

-15 -30 -45 -60 -75 -90

-15 -30 -45 -60 -75 -90

Probable changes of the climate of Russias close neighbourhood

. 3. () ( ) (20452064 .) () (20802099 .) () 21-

. 5. (%) , 25 C, (20412060 .) () (20802099 .) () 21-

. 8. (%) ( 90- ) (20412060 .) ()

, - (62 . .) - (87 . .).

1.3.2 1.3.4 (20082010 .),

On the basis of optimization problem solution the inter-annual

J(C) ( Pi (t) Fi(t, C))2dt.

Pi(t) = U10 (t), T0 (t), T2 (t) ,

. 2. J() (T0 m, r0 m) TH, qH. .

I. The model structure and main equations

Voeikov Main Geophysical Observatory

A conception of development of the numerical three-dimensional

merical scheme of their solution. Movement equations are written in

Miller, Pearce (1974). , , 30 .

= ( qc Vc,z ) + ( qic Vic,z ) + ( qr Vr,z ) + ( qi Vi,z ) ,

(/); qc , qr ,

(1 qc qic qr qi )

(1 qc qic qr qi )

(1 qc qic qr qi )

vair,z 4 vair,z 2 vair,x

; Ex, Ey, Ez ; ; g . (2)(2)

( qc Vc,z ) ( qr Vr ,z ) ( qic Vic,z ) ( qi Vi,z ) = 0,

q qv + qc + qic + qr + qi ,

q j = {qc , qic , qr , , qi }; Vj = {Vc,z , Vic,z , Vr ,z , Vi,z } ; Fj = {Fc , Fic , Fr , , Fi } ,

Vc,z, Vic,z , Vr,z, Vi,z

qc Vc,z Lcond cv, pT + qr Vr ,z Lcond cv, pT +

eint + ( qc + qr ) Lcond + ( qic + qi ) Lsubl

v,V + ( qc + qic + qr + qi ) Rv

ionp Ey + B ionp vair,z ionp Ez

ionn ionp ; B ionn , B ionp , Bc , Bic , Br , Bi ,

9,35 / z = 0...1 5,4 /

(, 2002; Altaratz et al., 2005; Mansell et al.,

. . , . . , 1984. . . 10. . 4552.

K h a i r o u t d i n o v M . E . , K o g a n Y . L . , 1999. Large-eddy simulation model

SOME POSSIBILITY IMPRUVING QUALITY INFORMAITION

The theoretical basis of multiwaves method of rain intensity

Calculation results of minimum rain intensity, which lesser than

1997 . TRMM (Tropical Rainfall

Z, 1 = 2,17 (), ().

, Z = AIb. (I/I)max = (Z/Z + A/A)b1

1,b ) 1 ( 1,a 1,b )

ESTIMATING METHODS FOR SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC RISKS