Вы находитесь на странице: 1из 22

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.868428003
R Square
0.754167196
Adjusted R Square
0.746936819
Standard Error
79.13464006
Observations
36
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept
X Variable 1

1
34
35

SS
MS
F
Significance F
653190.6853 653190.6853 104.3053826
6.78108E-12
212917.9027 6262.291257
866108.588

Coefficients Standard Error


t Stat
2203.786303
26.93753096 81.81099843
12.96655122
1.269612296 10.21300066

P-value
1.2479E-40
6.78108E-12

Lower 95%
2149.042654
10.3863886

Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%


2258.529952 2149.042654 2258.529952
15.54671384
10.3863886 15.54671384

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.12778
R Square
0.016328
Adjusted R Square
-0.0126
Standard Error
147.6929
Observations
36
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
1 12310.46 12310.46 0.564359 0.457678
34 741648.1 21813.18
35 753958.5

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 2418.327 50.27483 48.10213 7.41E-33 2316.156 2520.497 2316.156 2520.497
X Variable 1 -1.78009 2.36954 -0.75124 0.457678 -6.59557 3.035395 -6.59557 3.035395

Upper 95.0%

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.292163134
R Square
0.085359297
Adjusted R Square
0.057642912
Standard Error
170.9445435
Observations
35
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept

1
33
34

SS
MS
F
Significance F
89996.3159 89996.3159 3.079741364
0.088554644
964327.2189 29222.03694
1054323.535

Coefficients Standard Error


t Stat
P-value
3127.667639
61.56184543 50.80529372 6.47804E-33
1 5.020861686
2.861021587 1.75491919 0.088554644

Lower 95%
3002.419123
-0.799930498

Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%


3252.916156 3002.419123 3252.916156
10.84165387 -0.799930498 10.84165387

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R
0.94887908
R Square
0.900371509
Adjusted R Square
0.897352464
Standard Error
2061.175313
Observations
35
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

Intercept

1
33
34

SS
MS
F
Significance F
1267015698 1267015698 298.2305511
4.30674E-18
140198641.2 4248443.671
1407214339

Coefficients Standard Error


t Stat
53519.73421
742.2860857 72.10122248
1 595.7401765
34.49695993 17.26935295

P-value
6.89792E-38
4.30674E-18

Lower 95%
52009.54181
525.5555838

Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%


55029.9266 52009.54181
55029.9266
665.9247692 525.5555838 665.9247692

Year

Quarter

SmartWEAR

2003

1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

2052.65
2138.95
2037.45
2319.95
2145.45
2255.75
2143.45
2353.05
2186.85
2377.25
2175.15
2456.95
2353.05
2452.85
2316.75
2609.25
2437.75
2522.15
2297.45
2657.05
2473.57
2511.15
2452.85
2675.95
2507.25
2232.45
2264.45
2719.35
2441.47
2618.75
2476.05
2739.85
2574.65
2676.55
2557.05
2756.95
2591.95
2609.15
2575.85
2376.45

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Moving
Average

Central
Moving
Average

Yearly
Sales

StIt
Factor =
Sales/Ce
ntral MA Scaled St

8549.00
2137.25
2160.45
2189.65
2216.15
2224.43
2234.78
2265.15
2273.08
2299.05
2340.60
2359.50
2394.90
2432.98
2454.15
2471.48
2466.65
2478.60
2487.55
2484.81
2523.66
2528.38
2536.80
2467.13
2420.03
2430.88
2414.43
2511.00
2563.90
2569.03
2602.33
2616.78
2637.03
2641.30
2645.63
2628.78
2633.48
2538.35

2148.85
2175.05
2202.90
2220.29
2229.60
2249.96
2269.11
2286.06
2319.83
2350.05
2377.20
2413.94
2443.56
2462.81
2469.06
2472.63
2483.08
2486.18
2504.23
2526.02
2532.59
2501.96
2443.58
2425.45
2422.65
2462.72
2537.45
2566.47
2585.68
2609.55
2626.90
2639.16
2643.46
2637.20
2631.13
2585.91

8897.70

9196.20

9731.90

9914.40

10113.52

9723.50

10276.12

10565.20

10153.40

Seasonal Indices

0.95
1.07
0.97
1.02
0.96
1.05
0.96
1.04
0.94
1.05
0.99
1.02
0.95
1.06
0.99
1.02
0.93
1.07
0.99
0.99
0.97
1.07
1.03
0.92
0.93
1.10
0.96
1.02
0.96
1.05
0.98
1.01
0.97
1.05
0.99
1.01

0.95
1.06
0.98
1.01
0.95
1.06
0.98
1.01
0.95
1.06
0.98
1.01
0.95
1.06
0.98
1.01
0.95
1.06
0.98
1.01
0.95
1.06
0.98
1.01
0.95
1.06
0.98
1.01
0.95
1.06
0.98
1.01
0.95
1.06
0.98
1.01

scaled

1
2
3
4
AVERAGE

Time
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

Deseasonalized Sales
2145.62
2185.75
2180.93
2243.89
2257.25
2216.94
2223.01
2364.75
2290.63
2314.83
2391.96
2439.95
2439.75
2458.32
2478.06
2508.89
2419.42
2503.35
2514.47
2497.95
2583.07
2521.16
2548.71
2220.71
2384.67
2562.05
2481.84
2604.98
2607.51
2581.36
2617.23
2662.47
2692.81
2597.48
2634.81
2595.43

0.984004
1.005564
0.949847
1.061689
1.000276

0.983732
1.005287
0.949585
1.061396
4.000000

Y=

B0 + X*B1

B0
B1

2203.79
12.97

X
2013

2014

1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

Y
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44

2683.55
2696.52
2709.48
2722.45
2735.41
2748.38
2761.35
2774.31

Deseason
alized
Sales

2145.62
2185.75
2180.93
2243.89
2257.25
2216.94
2223.01
2364.75
2290.63
2314.83
2391.96
2439.95
2439.75
2458.32
2478.06
2508.89
2419.42
2503.35
2514.47
2497.95
2583.07
2521.16
2548.71
2220.71
2384.67
2562.05
2481.84
2604.98
2607.51
2581.36
2617.23
2662.47
2692.81
2597.48
2634.81
2595.43

Year

Quarter

Fabric Elite

2003

1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

2145.57
2218.27
2202.57
2296.94
2232.37
2405.88
2476.57
2390.83
2291.53
2478.45
2515.29
2497.79
2475.56
2593.81
2708.86
2639.03
2511.92
2570.28
2257.07
2494.31
2291.39
2427.55
2378.51
2321.34
2206.47
2049.16
2027.07
2307.67
2335.00
2245.39
2298.84
2359.47
2326.43
2384.73
2551.95
2476.03
2383.33
2430.96
2485.47
2244.07

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Moving
Average

Central
Moving
Average

Yearly
Sales

StIt
Factor =
Sales/Ce
ntral MA

8863.35
2215.84
2237.54
2284.44
2352.94
2376.41
2391.20
2409.35
2419.03
2445.77
2491.77
2520.61
2569.00
2604.31
2613.40
2607.52
2494.57
2458.39
2403.26
2367.58
2397.94
2354.70
2333.47
2238.87
2151.01
2147.59
2179.72
2228.78
2296.72
2309.67
2307.53
2342.37
2405.64
2434.78
2449.01
2460.57
2443.95
2385.96

2226.69
2260.99
2318.69
2364.68
2383.81
2400.27
2414.19
2432.40
2468.77
2506.19
2544.81
2586.66
2608.86
2610.46
2551.05
2476.48
2430.83
2385.42
2382.76
2376.32
2344.08
2286.17
2194.94
2149.30
2163.66
2204.25
2262.75
2303.20
2308.60
2324.95
2374.00
2420.21
2441.90
2454.79
2452.26
2414.95

9505.65

9783.06

10417.25

9833.57

9418.79

8590.37

9238.69

9739.13

9543.83

Seasonal Indices

0.99
1.02
0.96
1.02
1.04
1.00
0.95
1.02
1.02
1.00
0.97
1.00
1.04
1.01
0.98
1.04
0.93
1.05
0.96
1.02
1.01
1.02
1.01
0.95
0.94
1.05
1.03
0.97
1.00
1.01
0.98
0.99
1.05
1.01
0.97
1.01

1
2
3
4
AVERAGE

Time
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

Deseasonalized Sales
2201.67
2259.66
2278.53
2401.52
2475.55
2352.03
2338.91
2473.96
2514.26
2457.25
2526.75
2589.11
2707.75
2596.20
2563.86
2565.62
2256.14
2453.83
2338.77
2423.15
2377.53
2283.66
2252.10
2045.44
2026.24
2270.21
2383.28
2241.32
2297.90
2321.17
2374.53
2380.41
2550.90
2435.84
2432.61
2426.55

0.980012
1.002092
1.000686
1.016778
0.999892

Y=

B0 + X*B1

B0
B1

2418.33
-1.78

X
2013

2014

1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

Y
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44

2352.46
2350.68
2348.90
2347.12
2345.34
2343.56
2341.78
2340.00

Deseason
alized
Scaled St
Sales

1.00
1.02
0.98
1.00
1.00
1.02
0.98
1.00
1.00
1.02
0.98
1.00
1.00
1.02
0.98
1.00
1.00
1.02
0.98
1.00
1.00
1.02
0.98
1.00
1.00
1.02
0.98
1.00
1.00
1.02
0.98
1.00
1.00
1.02
0.98
1.00

scaled

2201.67
2259.66
2278.53
2401.52
2475.55
2352.03
2338.91
2473.96
2514.26
2457.25
2526.75
2589.11
2707.75
2596.20
2563.86
2565.62
2256.14
2453.83
2338.77
2423.15
2377.53
2283.66
2252.10
2045.44
2026.24
2270.21
2383.28
2241.32
2297.90
2321.17
2374.53
2380.41
2550.90
2435.84
2432.61
2426.55

Quarter

Italia
UNO

1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

2743.11
3060.56
2906.16
3184.66
2957.46
3202.48
3126.05
3278.04
3160.33
3287.63
3152.00
3340.78
3240.49
3433.38
3217.12
3543.98
3192.36
3280.38
2937.38
3327.80
3115.85
3227.03
3093.85
3269.90
3092.02
2742.50
2595.92
3320.09
3232.56
3260.26
3153.08
3489.01
3307.66
3424.65
3393.00
3481.21
3370.77
3548.40
3352.77
3121.76

Moving
Average

Central
Moving
Average

Yearly
Sales
11894.49

2973.62
3027.21
3062.69
3117.66
3141.01
3191.72
3213.01
3219.50
3235.19
3255.23
3291.66
3307.94
3358.74
3346.71
3308.46
3238.52
3184.48
3165.35
3152.01
3191.13
3176.66
3170.70
3049.57
2925.09
2937.64
2972.77
3102.21
3241.50
3283.73
3302.50
3343.60
3403.58
3401.63
3417.41
3448.35
3438.29
3348.42

3000.42
3044.95
3090.18
3129.33
3166.37
3202.37
3216.26
3227.34
3245.21
3273.44
3299.80
3333.34
3352.72
3327.58
3273.49
3211.50
3174.91
3158.68
3171.57
3183.89
3173.68
3110.13
2987.33
2931.36
2955.20
3037.49
3171.85
3262.61
3293.11
3323.05
3373.59
3402.61
3409.52
3432.88
3443.32
3393.36

12564.03

12940.74

13434.97

12737.91

12706.63

11750.54

13134.91

13606.53

13393.70

Seasonal Indices

0.979741
1.001815
1.00041
1.016498
3.998464

1
2
3
4
AVERAGE

Time
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

Deseasonalized Sales
3035.90
3044.45
2993.90
3170.22
3265.60
3133.72
3199.27
3254.52
3292.71
3193.70
3280.42
3398.80
3360.73
3387.95
3231.69
3247.34
3068.51
3181.29
3154.24
3194.52
3231.97
3125.94
3130.12
2714.88
2711.81
3173.92
3272.39
3227.42
3293.84
3335.40
3348.42
3390.16
3544.47
3327.95
3412.30
3512.66

Y=

B0 + X*B1

B0
B1

3127.67
5.02

X
2013

2014

1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

Y
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44

3313.44
3318.46
3323.48
3328.50
3333.52
3338.54
3343.56
3348.59

StIt
Factor =
Deseason
Sales/Ce
alized
ntral MA Scaled St
Sales

0.97
1.05
0.96
1.02
0.99
1.02
0.98
1.02
0.97
1.02
0.98
1.03
0.96
1.07
0.98
1.02
0.93
1.05
0.98
1.01
0.97
1.05
1.04
0.94
0.88
1.09
1.02
1.00
0.96
1.05
0.98
1.01
1.00
1.01
0.98
1.05

0.96
1.05
0.99
1.01
0.96
1.05
0.99
1.01
0.96
1.05
0.99
1.01
0.96
1.05
0.99
1.01
0.96
1.05
0.99
1.01
0.96
1.05
0.99
1.01
0.96
1.05
0.99
1.01
0.96
1.05
0.99
1.01
0.96
1.05
0.99
1.01

scaled

3035.90
3044.45
2993.90
3170.22
3265.60
3133.72
3199.27
3254.52
3292.71
3193.70
3280.42
3398.80
3360.73
3387.95
3231.69
3247.34
3068.51
3181.29
3154.24
3194.52
3231.97
3125.94
3130.12
2714.88
2711.81
3173.92
3272.39
3227.42
3293.84
3335.40
3348.42
3390.16
3544.47
3327.95
3412.30
3512.66

Quarter

Total Sales

1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

54719.99
25286.07
43938.63
45824.37
87070.59
46981.26
47092.74
47514.92
90056.67
48569.80
47969.67
49282.74
94603.82
50794.54
50406.90
55669.99
97871.77
53645.80
50315.71
53473.43
97657.40
54501.41
57648.60
59959.84
99601.94
53430.24
53158.67
59746.14
104419.86
59777.94
59612.40
61896.26
108084.21
62410.78
62622.02
64087.01
109088.20
63570.56
30655.79
28630.40

Moving
Average

Central
Moving
Average

42442.26
50529.91
55953.71
56742.24
57164.88
57911.40
58308.53
58527.76
58969.72
60106.51
60662.69
61272.00
62868.81
63685.80
64398.61
64375.82
63826.68
63773.09
63986.99
65820.21
67441.81
67927.95
67660.15
66537.67
66484.25
67688.73
69275.65
70889.08
71426.61
72342.70
73000.91
73753.32
74301.00
74552.00
74841.95
66850.39
57986.24

46486.09
53241.81
56347.98
56953.56
57538.14
58109.96
58418.15
58748.74
59538.11
60384.60
60967.35
62070.41
63277.31
64042.21
64387.22
64101.25
63799.88
63880.04
64903.60
66631.01
67684.88
67794.05
67098.91
66510.96
67086.49
68482.19
70082.37
71157.85
71884.66
72671.81
73377.11
74027.16
74426.50
74696.97
70846.17
62418.31

Seasonal Indices

0.988101
1.010453
0.957530
1.046343
1.000607

0.987828
1.010175
0.957266
1.046054
4.001323

Time
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36

Deseasonalized Sales
52957.02
53803.36
57423.42
55433.89
56758.52
55788.27
59392.75
57308.23
57815.43
57863.91
62391.61
59933.23
60752.90
65363.31
64546.84
63297.48
60643.00
62784.29
64405.46
64307.02
69480.96
70400.12
65687.89
63043.13
64069.47
70149.22
68865.33
70532.87
71847.83
72673.72
71281.98
73639.40
75475.18
75245.92
71944.12
75007.84

Y=

B0 + X*B1

B0
B1

53519.73
595.74

X
2013

2014

1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4

Y
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44

75562.12
76157.86
76753.60
77349.34
77945.08
78540.82
79136.56
79732.30

Yearly
Sales

StIt
Factor =
Deseason
Sales/Ce
alized
ntral MA Scaled St Sales

169769.05

228659.51

235878.88

251475.25

255306.72

269767.25

265936.99

285706.45

297204.01

231944.94

Seasonal Indices

0.95
0.86
1.55
0.82
0.82
0.82
1.54
0.83
0.81
0.82
1.55
0.82
0.80
0.87
1.52
0.84
0.79
0.84
1.50
0.82
0.85
0.88
1.48
0.80
0.79
0.87
1.49
0.84
0.83
0.85
1.47
0.84
0.84
0.86
1.54
1.02

0.83
0.85
1.52
0.85
0.83
0.85
1.52
0.85
0.83
0.85
1.52
0.85
0.83
0.85
1.52
0.85
0.83
0.85
1.52
0.85
0.83
0.85
1.52
0.85
0.83
0.85
1.52
0.85
0.83
0.85
1.52
0.85
0.83
0.85
1.52
0.85

scaled

52957.02
53803.36
57423.42
55433.89
56758.52
55788.27
59392.75
57308.23
57815.43
57863.91
62391.61
59933.23
60752.90
65363.31
64546.84
63297.48
60643.00
62784.29
64405.46
64307.02
69480.96
70400.12
65687.89
63043.13
64069.47
70149.22
68865.33
70532.87
71847.83
72673.72
71281.98
73639.40
75475.18
75245.92
71944.12
75007.84

1
2
3
4
AVERAGE

1.516709
0.847753
0.829933
0.851936
1.011583

1.516291
0.847519
0.829704
0.851701
4.045214