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Monitoring progress of the recession

Apr-08 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09

1 Passenger car sales % y/y -7.0 -28.0 -25.2 -19.2 -32.9 -21.5 -33.2 -31.5 -24.7 -32.3 -34.1 -23.4
2 Total vehicle sales % y/y -2.8 -23.5 -21.2 -19.9 -30.7 -18.3 -30.2 -28.4 -25.8 -35.4 -36.2 -30.1
3 Residential bldg plans % y/y 5.2 -38.1 -21.1 -2.8 -30.5 -20.9 -29.4 -31.2 -23.9 -44.1 -49.8
4 Retail sales (real) % y/y 1.9 -2.5 0.8 0.4 -1.3 -2.3 0.5 -2.3 -0.1 1.2 -4.5
5 Manufacturing output % y/y 10.5 0.5 5.7 3.6 0.4 4.7 -1.7 -6.4 -7.0 -11.1 -15.0
6 Mining output % y/y -4.7 -1.1 -5.8 -11.6 -5.5 -3.3 3.9 -7.9 -7.6 -11.0 -12.8
7 Cement sales (tons/pd) % y/y -5.3 -1.3 3.1 -5.0 -2.8 -8.6 -2.1 -12.2 -9.3 -0.2 -14.0 -10.2
8 Electricity prod % y/y 1.1 -2.2 -3.3 -1.3 -3.3 -0.7 0.3 -5.1 -10.5 -9.8 -11.2
9 Steel output % y/y 0.6 0.3 2.4 18.3 18.3 -8.4 -17.3 -40.7 -73.3 -36.6
10 Credit growth (private) % y/y 19.6 20.2 20.7 19.4 18.5 16.4 16.4 15.4 13.6 11.9 11.0

11 RMB/BER Business confidence 48 45 34 33 27


12 FNB/BER Consumer confidence 12 -6 -1 -4 1
13 FNB Building Confidence 66 50 52 40 28
14 FNB Construction confidence 76 71 69 60 60
15 SARB leading indicator % y/y -3.2 -3.6 -3.5 -4.7 -7.9 -9.4 -12.2 -14.1 -12.8
16 JSE All Share (last day) 30743 31841 30413 27720 27702 23836 20992 21209 21509 20570 18465 19658

17 CPI inflation % y/y 11.1 11.7 12.2 13.4 13.7 13.1 12.1 11.8 9.5 8.1 8.6
18 PPI inflation % y/y 12.4 16.4 16.8 18.9 19.1 16.0 14.5 12.6 11.0 9.2 7.3
19 Oil price ($/b) average 109 124 130 135 118 103 82 57 44 42 43 45
20 Rand/$ average 7.75 7.61 7.92 7.61 7.66 8.04 9.79 10.13 9.94 9.89 9.95 9.93
21 Prime interest rate % 15.0 15.0 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.5 15.0 15.0 14.0 13.0

22 Hhold consumption Q%Annual 3.0 1.3 -0.9 -2.7


23 Fixed investment Q%Annual 10.4 5.2 7.3 3.0
24 Total domestic demand Q%A 12.1 -1.7 0.7 -3.9
25 GDP excl agriculture Q%A 1.1 5.0 -0.5 -2.2
26 Total GDP Q%Annual 1.7 5.0 0.2 -1.8
27 Formal Employment QC '000 73 24 98

Recession? no no no maybe maybe maybe yes yes yes yes yes yes