Statistical Inference via Bayes Rule

Scenario: We want to estimate a Bernoulli success rate (p).

Enter Data
n of trials = 10
Here
n of successes = 3
P(Mod) p P(Data | Mod) P(Data Mod) P(Mod | Data)
0.0000
0.00000E+00 0.00000E+00
0.00000
0.0010
9.93021E-10
9.94015E-13
0.00000
0.0010
7.88867E-09
7.89657E-12
0.00000
0.0010
2.64381E-08
2.64645E-11
0.00000
0.0010
6.22294E-08
6.22917E-11
0.00000
0.0010
1.20690E-07
1.20811E-10
0.00000
0.0010
2.07090E-07
2.07297E-10
0.00000
0.0010
3.26542E-07
3.26869E-10
0.00000
0.0010
4.84007E-07
4.84492E-10
0.00000
0.0010
6.84295E-07
6.84980E-10
0.00000
0.0010
9.32065E-07
9.32998E-10
0.00000
0.0010
1.23183E-06
1.23307E-09
0.00000
0.0010
1.58797E-06
1.58956E-09
0.00000
0.0010
2.00470E-06
2.00671E-09
0.00000
0.0010
2.48612E-06
2.48861E-09
0.00000
0.0010
3.03618E-06
3.03922E-09
0.00000
0.0010
3.65869E-06
3.66235E-09
0.00000
0.0010
4.35734E-06
4.36170E-09
0.00001
0.0010
5.13568E-06
5.14082E-09
0.00001

Posterior Distribution
0.004
0.003

P(Model | Data)

Model
M.000
M.001
M.002
M.003
M.004
M.005
M.006
M.007
M.008
M.009
M.010
M.011
M.012
M.013
M.014
M.015
M.016
M.017
M.018

Credible Interval
0.093
0.589

0.003
0.002
0.002
0.001
0.001
0.000
0.00

0.20

0.40

0.60

Model

Credible Interval Calculation

0.093

1
1
1
1
0.999999
0.999998
0.999995
0.999992
0.999987
0.999982
0.999973
0.999962
0.999951
0.999935
0.999911
0.999885
0.999863
0.999826
0.999788
0.999751
0.999709
0.99964
0.999583
0.999519
0.999447
0.999367
0.999277
0.999176
0.999041
0.998915
0.998776
0.998654
0.998488
0.998307
0.998148
0.997978
0.997796
0.99755
0.997282
0.997051
0.996867
0.996541
0.996188
0.995885
0.995564

0.587

FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE

0.995222
0.99486
0.994574
0.994173
0.99364
0.993186
0.99295
0.992457
0.991803
0.991249
0.990814
0.990208
0.989572
0.989073
0.988379
0.987652
0.987275
0.986494
0.985466
0.985038
0.983925
0.983462
0.982261
0.981508
0.98073
0.979656
0.979102
0.977957
0.977069
0.976154
0.974565
0.973907
0.972897
0.971857
0.970423
0.968935
0.967782
0.966597
0.965379
0.963706
0.96241
0.96108
0.959715
0.958314
0.956878
0.954908
0.953896
0.952348
0.950227
0.949139
0.947476
0.945773

FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
0.093
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE

0.944029
0.941642
0.939802
0.937921
0.935997
0.93403
0.93202
0.929966
0.92857
0.926441
0.924267
0.922794
0.920543
0.918246
0.915901
0.912701
0.910245
0.908579
0.906895
0.903455
0.90082
0.898133
0.895397
0.893541
0.890719
0.88881
0.8859
0.881942
0.880937
0.877887
0.874784
0.870565
0.869495
0.865153
0.861835
0.859589
0.857323
0.853873
0.851546
0.848004
0.843195
0.840751
0.837041
0.834535
0.830729
0.826868
0.822948
0.821628
0.817629
0.813573
0.80946
0.805289

FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE

0.802473
0.798205
0.796769
0.790957
0.78801
0.783546
0.780533
0.77597
0.771347
0.76823
0.763508
0.760324
0.757116
0.752254
0.747334
0.744018
0.740677
0.735617
0.730499
0.728779
0.723578
0.720081
0.71478
0.709425
0.705819
0.70219
0.696694
0.692998
0.687406
0.681756
0.679858
0.676046
0.668341
0.666399
0.658566
0.654611
0.652625
0.646623
0.642593
0.636496
0.632403
0.628284
0.619969
0.615774
0.611553
0.607309
0.603041
0.59659
0.592261
0.587907
0.581329
0.574701

FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE

0.57025
0.568017
0.559022
0.554489
0.549932
0.543057
0.540752
0.536128
0.529146
0.522118
0.517403
0.515038
0.505521
0.500729
0.498325
0.493502
0.486224
0.478903
0.476451
0.469064
0.461634
0.459146
0.451654
0.446633
0.441593
0.434
0.428911
0.423804
0.418677
0.413533
0.405783
0.400592
0.397991
0.390157
0.384913
0.377017
0.374375
0.366426
0.363769
0.355769
0.347735
0.342359
0.339664
0.331558
0.326135
0.317975
0.312515
0.307041
0.304298
0.298803
0.293294
0.287772

FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE

0.276687
0.271125
0.265551
0.259964
0.257166
0.251562
0.245945
0.237499
0.234679
0.223368
0.217697
0.214857
0.206324
0.203474
0.194912
0.192054
0.18633
0.180597
0.171981
0.166227
0.157583
0.154697
0.14603
0.140243
0.13445
0.131551
0.125748
0.117033
0.114125
0.105393
0.099565
0.09665
0.090815
0.082055
0.07621
0.073287
0.067437
0.058655
0.052798
0.046938
0.041075
0.035211
0.032278
0.023478
0.017609
0.01174
0.008805
0.002935
0.008805
0.01174
0.014675
0.020544

FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE

0.026412
0.035211
0.038144
0.046938
0.049868
0.055727
0.06451
0.070362
0.073287
0.079134
0.087896
0.093733
0.09665
0.105393
0.108305
0.117033
0.122844
0.12865
0.13445
0.137347
0.14603
0.148921
0.154697
0.163348
0.163348
0.169106
0.174855
0.180597
0.18633
0.194912
0.197769
0.203474
0.212015
0.214857
0.220533
0.229029
0.231854
0.234679
0.240318
0.245945
0.251562
0.257166
0.262759
0.268339
0.273907
0.279462
0.285004
0.287772
0.29605
0.298803
0.304298
0.309779

FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE

0.315245
0.320697
0.32342
0.331558
0.334265
0.342359
0.347735
0.350416
0.355769
0.361105
0.363769
0.37173
0.377017
0.379653
0.384913
0.390157
0.392774
0.397991
0.405783
0.408371
0.413533
0.418677
0.423804
0.426361
0.431458
0.436535
0.441593
0.444118
0.449147
0.456654
0.459146
0.464115
0.466594
0.471533
0.478903
0.481348
0.486224
0.488657
0.493502
0.500729
0.505521
0.507906
0.512665
0.517403
0.522118
0.524466
0.526811
0.533806
0.536128
0.540752
0.547647
0.547647

FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE

0.554489
0.556758
0.561277
0.563531
0.568017
0.574701
0.576915
0.579127
0.58353
0.587907
0.592261
0.59443
0.600897
0.605179
0.609436
0.609436
0.613668
0.619969
0.624139
0.624139
0.628284
0.632403
0.638537
0.638537
0.642593
0.648631
0.648631
0.652625
0.656591
0.660532
0.662496
0.668341
0.670276
0.672207
0.676046
0.681756
0.683644
0.68553
0.689278
0.692998
0.694852
0.700366
0.70219
0.70401
0.709425
0.711218
0.716556
0.716556
0.720081
0.72532
0.72532
0.730499

FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE

0.733919
0.733919
0.737312
0.740677
0.742353
0.74568
0.748979
0.750622
0.755503
0.757116
0.758725
0.76192
0.765087
0.766664
0.771347
0.774437
0.774437
0.779021
0.780533
0.782045
0.785041
0.786531
0.789489
0.792419
0.795324
0.796769
0.799633
0.802473
0.803885
0.806684
0.808077
0.810838
0.812211
0.816285
0.81897
0.81897
0.821628
0.824259
0.826868
0.829451
0.829451
0.832006
0.835793
0.837041
0.838285
0.839523
0.841977
0.844405
0.84681
0.848004
0.850369
0.851546

FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE

0.855031
0.855031
0.858461
0.858461
0.860716
0.864054
0.864054
0.866247
0.867337
0.870565
0.872687
0.873739
0.874784
0.875826
0.877887
0.878911
0.880937
0.882938
0.883934
0.886878
0.887846
0.88881
0.890719
0.891667
0.893541
0.894473
0.896313
0.897228
0.899931
0.90082
0.901704
0.903455
0.904325
0.905187
0.906895
0.908579
0.909416
0.911889
0.911889
0.914313
0.914313
0.915901
0.916689
0.919017
0.919781
0.921299
0.921299
0.922794
0.924267
0.924999
0.927158
0.927867

FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE

0.92857
0.929272
0.930654
0.931341
0.932694
0.933366
0.935347
0.935347
0.937285
0.937285
0.939181
0.939181
0.941034
0.941034
0.942245
0.942846
0.944616
0.944616
0.945773
0.946346
0.948036
0.94859
0.949139
0.950227
0.950763
0.951825
0.95287
0.95287
0.954405
0.954405
0.955405
0.955902
0.956393
0.957362
0.958314
0.958786
0.959253
0.96063
0.96108
0.961527
0.961971
0.962845
0.963706
0.964551
0.964968
0.965379
0.96579
0.966196
0.966996
0.967392
0.96817
0.968555

FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
0.587
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE

0.969687
0.969687
0.970787
0.971147
0.971147
0.971857
0.972207
0.973238
0.973574
0.973907
0.974565
0.974888
0.975528
0.975528
0.976462
0.976462
0.977369
0.977369
0.977957
0.978537
0.978537
0.979102
0.979656
0.979929
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0.980467
0.980993
0.981508
0.981762
0.982261
0.982506
0.98299
0.98299
0.983696
0.983696
0.984152
0.984378
0.984601
0.985038
0.985253
0.985675
0.985884
0.98609
0.986693
0.986693
0.987082
0.987275
0.987465
0.987836
0.98802
0.988201
0.988731

FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE

0.988903
0.989242
0.989408
0.989408
0.989734
0.989895
0.990053
0.990516
0.990666
0.990814
0.990962
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0.992071
0.992071
0.992201
0.992583
0.992583
0.992707
0.993069
0.993186
0.993301
0.993416
0.99364
0.993749
0.993858
0.99407
0.994276
0.994276
0.994377
0.994671
0.994766
0.994766
0.994952
0.995044
0.995134
0.995309
0.995396
0.995564
0.995646
0.995807
0.995807
0.995962
0.996114
0.996114
0.996261
0.996403
0.996473
0.996541
0.996608

FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE

0.99674
0.99674
0.99693
0.99693
0.996991
0.99711
0.997226
0.997282
0.997392
0.997446
0.997498
0.99755
0.997601
0.997701
0.997749
0.997843
0.997889
0.997889
0.998022
0.998022
0.998107
0.998107
0.998229
0.998229
0.998268
0.998344
0.998418
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0.998454
0.998523
0.998557
0.998622
0.998622
0.998716
0.998716
0.998747
0.998805
0.998833
0.998889
0.998915
0.998941
0.998967
0.998992
0.999041
0.999088
0.999111
0.999111
0.999133
0.999176
0.999218
0.999218
0.999257

FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE

0.999296
0.999314
0.999332
0.999332
0.999384
0.999384
0.9994
0.999416
0.999447
0.999477
0.999492
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0.999519
0.999533
0.999559
0.999559
0.999571
0.999595
0.999607
0.999618
0.999629
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0.999671
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0.9997
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0.999726
0.999735
0.999759
0.999766
0.999766
0.999781
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0.999795
0.999808
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0.999814
0.99982
0.999832
0.999843
0.999843
0.999853
0.999853
0.999863
0.999868
0.999872
0.999877
0.999881
0.999889
0.999897

FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE

0.999897
0.999905
0.999905
0.999908
0.999918
0.999918
0.999921
0.999924
0.999927
0.99993
0.999935
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0.999942
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0.999944
0.999949
0.999953
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0.999957
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0.99996
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0.999971
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0.999988
0.999988
0.999989
0.99999
0.99999
0.99999
0.999991
0.999992
0.999992
0.999993

FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE

0.999994
0.999994
0.999994
0.999995
0.999995
0.999995
0.999995
0.999996
0.999996
0.999996
0.999996
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0.999999
0.999999
0.999999
0.999999
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE

1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1

FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE
FALSE