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Cir 319

AN/181







(Doc 9689)

Cir 319
AN/181







(Doc 9689)

,
,
.
999 University Street, Montral, Quebec, Canada H3C 5H7


- www.icao.int.

319.

(Doc 9689)
: CIR319
ISBN 978-92-9231-631-0

2009
.
,

.

................................................................................................................................................

(v)

1.

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2.

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2.1
2.2
2.3
2.4
2.5

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CRM, ..................................................
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2
2
4
4
6

3.

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3.1
3.2
3.3

7
7

3.5
3.6

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11
12
14

4.

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18

4.1
4.2
4.3
4.4
4.5
4.6

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[ta,tb]...........................................................................

18
18
20
21
21
24

5.
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27

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27
27
30
35
37

3.4

5.1
5.2
5.3
5.4
5.5

(iii)

319-AN/181

(iv)

6.

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39

6.1

CRM ,
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39
40

6.2
6.3

46

7.
, : , .....................

48

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x& ................................................................................................................

48
48
49
50

8.
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52

7.1
7.2
7.3
7.4

(CRM) .......
CRM /
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53
53
55

9.
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56

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ADS-C .............................

56
56
59
60

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63

8.1
8.2
8.3
8.4

9.1
9.2
9.3
9.4
10.

______________________

52

1.
,

.
2.

(CRM),
(Doc 9689)
300 (1000 ) 290 410 (Doc 9574),
.
3.
CRM,
.
, CRM
, ,
.

.
4.
;
. ,

,
. , ,
.
,
.
5.
,
,
, .
,
.

______________________

(v)

1.1
(CRM),

(Doc 9689) 300
(1000 ) 290 410 (Doc 9574).
, .
,
CRM .
1.2
2 . 3

CRM. ,
3,
. , CRM, Doc 9689 Doc 9574,
. . 3.6 3
.
1.3
4 , ,
CRM. CRM 57.
1.4
8 9 CRM,
, /
( 8) ( 9). CRM
,
, CRM ADS-C.
1.5

, 10 .

______________________

2.1

2.1.1
5 6 Doc 9689, ,
, ,
, :
a)

b) .
2.1.2
,
( )
. ,
, .

, 6 Doc 9689.
2.1.3

(TLS) .
, " ,
, (, , ),
". ,
(, ).
2.1.4
,
TLS, .

2.2

CRM,

2.2.1

,
.
,
, , .
.
2.2.2
-
. , ,
, .

, , ,

319-AN/181

, , .


. ,
, ,
:
a)

/
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b)
;
c)

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d) ), (
)
"" .
c) d) 3.
2.2.3

, , ,
.
ADS-C .
CRM :
a)

/
;

b)
;
c)

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,
,
, ;

d) ( ),

, ,
;
e)


,
.

,
,
.
2.2.4
,
( ),

319-AN/181

, ,
, . , ,

. . 3.6 3.

2.3

,
, .
:
a)

, Sy.
Sy ()
. .

b) () ,
.
.
c)

, ,
.

d) , ,
.
e)

f)

2.4

2.4.1
,
, .
,
, (. 2-1). ,
,
,
, , ,
. .
2.4.2
,
, ""
. . 2-2 ( ) . 2-3 (
), A1 , A2 .
,
. .
,
, " ",
"" .

319-AN/181

CRM

xy
xy

M CRM

x
x
y

. 2-1.

xy
A1
A2

A1

xy

xy

. 2-2.

A2

319-AN/181

A2

A2

A1

2 y

A1

x
2 x

. 2-3.

2.5

2.5.1
()
( ), ( . ).
2.5.2
, ,
,
. ,
t ,
, , . .
t Stimemin.
2.5.3
, , ,
. , ,
.
(ADS-C ADS-B),
( ). ,
,
.

______________________

3.1

3.1.1
" "
, ,
, .
3.1.2
. 2.4 2, ,
" " " ",
. ,
. 2-2 . 2-3 2.
3.1.3
X

, , x
x
,
y
,
z
.
(
)
, y z
.
3.1.4
, , ( x, y )
, z
.
. , z& , ( x& , y& )
.
, . ,
. , ,
t. .
. 3.2.

3.2

3.2.1
. 3-1 .
, ,
" ", ,
, t, ft.(y),
t. ft.(y) t, t .
, t. ,
, .

319-AN/181

A, B, C

. 3-1.

3.2.2
, , ,
.
,
, x = t (vindicated vactual), t
(. . 3-2).
.
.
3.2.3

. ,
, , .
.

3.3

3.3.1

, .
. ,
,
.
3.3.2
, ,
X1, X2, , Xn ""
, ,
.

319-AN/181

t2

t1

t0

. 3-2.

3.3.3
n X1, X2, , Xn F. Mn
X1, X2, , Xn. F ,
M n bn
an bn,

an

G. lim n F n ( an x + bn ) = G ( x ) x. G
. ,
an bn, F n ( an x + bn ) G(x), cn
dn, F n ( cn x + d n ) H(x), ,
G ( x ) = H ( x + ) (. 14.2 4 10).
( -, . 14.3
4 10) , , F ,
G(x) (
):
:

x0
0,
( x ) =

exp(

x
),
x>0

> 0.

319-AN/181

10
:

exp( ( x) ), x 0
( x ) =
x>0
1,

( x ) = exp(e x ) .

> 0.

3.3.4
, H ,
:
1/

H =

1/

> 0
= 0
< 0.

3.3.5
-: F G,
G , . MDA(H) ( ) F, (H).
, F MDA(H), (.
. 3.3 6 10). ,
, . 3.3.3.
3.3.6
MDA.
, , F MDA(H),
"" F, (GPD). ,
.
3.3.7

(GPD) (G) :
1 (1 + x )1/ , 0
G ( x ) =
= 0.
1 exp( x),

(3-1)

, G.(x) x.
, G.(x) 0 x 1/.
GPD, G;.(x), x x/.
. X F,
, u, u, Fu,
:

Fu(x) = Pr{X u x|X > u}.


3.3.8
(. 3.4.13 6 10)
, , F MDA(H), u Fu(x)
GPD, G;(u).(x), (u)
u.
3.3.9
.
X1, X2, , Xn F,
:
a)

b) , , F MDA( H ) , , ,
Fu ( x) G; ( x ) x u.

319-AN/181
3.3.10

11

, u Fu(x) = F (u + x)/(1 F(u)) :

1 F ( x) (1 F (u ) ) 1 G; ( x u )

k
1 G; ( x u )
n

x u

(3-2)

k , X1, X2, , Xn.


3.3.11
"" (3-2)
500 000 , ,
1, ( 250 000).
. 3-3 Pr {X > x} x,
. (. (3.40)
6 10), MDA(H0),
. = 0 (3-1) (3-2) , "" 1 F(x)
k
x u
exp(
) , . 3-3
n

. = 3,2 = -0,089 = 0,31


, ""
. 3-3. , ""
= 0.
3.3.12

"" , . 3-3 "" GPD
= 0,2, = 0 = 0,2.
3.3.13

"" . ,
, MDA(H0);
6 10 MDA(H0), :
a)

- ;

b) ;
c)

d) .
3.3.14
, ""
, .

3.4

3.4.1
, .
.
, ,

319-AN/181

12

. 3-3.

(
, . .).
( GPS ),
.
3.4.2
,
- ,
. ,
, , ,
.
3.4.3
, , fcore(x)
ftail(x) , .
f.(x) = (1 ) fcore(x) + ftail(x),
. , ,
ftail(x) ,
, "" , (3-2),
x .

3.5

3.5.1
, (DE)
ftail(x) . fcore(x)

319-AN/181

13

. ,
DE-, fDE, :
y

f DE ( y ) =

1
e < y < .
2

(3-3)

3.5.2
, , RNP k ( k = 10),
:
y

f ( y) =

1
k
e =
.
2
ln(0, 05)

(3-4)

f ( y ) dy = 0,95,

, ,
RNP k, k . 95 % ..
3.5.3
DE-
,
50 . RNP 10 (. 6
10). f.(y) = (1 ) fcore(y) +
ftail(y), fcore(y) ,
RNP, (3-4). f tail ( y )
, ,
( ) .
ftail(y) DE-.
, , ,
(
). - ftail , Sy.
3.5.4
. 3-4 , Sy,
y1 y2.
, y (. . 2-3 2), ,
, , y2,
S y y1 y , S y y1 + y .
:

Py ( S y ) =

S y +y
S y y1 +y

f ( y1 )
f ( y2 ) dy2 dy1 = f ( y1 ) f ( y y1 )dy1 dy.
S y

S y y

y 1 y

,
, f.(y). , ftail.(y),
, , Sy.
, , :
(1 ) DE (core ) + DE (tail )

( RNP k)
core =
ln(0.05)

tail = S y = 50 .

(3-5)

319-AN/181

14

y1
Sy
y2

. 3-4. ,
Sy, y1 y2

.
, ,
.

3.6

3.6.1
. 2.2 2,
(Doc 9689)
300 (1000 ) 290 410 (Doc 9574)
.
- .
, , ,
. ,
.
3.6.2

. , "
" ,
, , . dt t
, , ft.().
t, ,
. ,
, .
"", , ,
, , , -
.
3.6.3
, 30 , 15
,

319-AN/181

15

- .
t , ft.() .
3.6.4
, 2 ,
,
. ,
,
. ,
,
, .
,

.
.
, .
3.6.5

. -, .
"" , ,

. ,
,
. ,
, , , ,
.
.
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.
.
3.6.6

. ,
, ,
, , .
, ,
, .
3.6.7
. 3-5 ,
( ) ,
.
, , . 3-5,
, . ,
,
:
a)

, , ,
" " ?

b) ?
c)

319-AN/181

16

. 3-5.

, . 3-5,
,
.
3.6.8

, ,
" "
. ,
,
, . " ",
(-
), .
dt, ft.(d),
.

319-AN/181

17

3.6.9

.
, Doc 9689 Doc 9574

.
3.6.10
,
, 4 10,

(RVSM) .

______________________

4.1

4.1.1
3,
( ), ,
. , ""
, .
4.1.2

. ,
. ,
.
4.1.3
, ,
.

4.2

4.2.1
, h x, h x.
, ,
.
r
.
r , n
, , L ,
r
r
,
n L,
r r
r r , . 4-1, , h,
L n . x L n .

r r

UV = U

r r

= x h = x ( L n )

cos ( )

. 4-1. ,

18

319-AN/181
4.2.2

19

:
, ( x, y )
r
, v ( x, y ) .
, , , . ,
?

4.2.3
. 4-2.
, , dx
r
n , . ,
. ,
, ds, dS.
4.2.4
,
r
, dx n (. . 4-2)
, t. . 3-3 3 , , dx
r
t, , dx n ,
r
r
v t. , v
. , , t ,
r r
dx. ( n (v t ) ) dx. ,
, , ,
r r
n v . q, q+
q. :
q > 0
q
q+ =
0 .

rn
dx

Vt

r rn ) t dx

, dx t: (V

. 4-2. ,

319-AN/181

20

:
q < 0
q
q =
0 .
4.2.5
, .
, t,
incoming t:

inco min g t =

r r

( n v t )

r r

= t

(n v )

dx

(4-1)
dx.

inco min g =

r r

(n v )

dx ,

(4-2)

r
n , .

4.3

4.3.1
: r.
,
(. . 4-3).
r cos
:
, [ 0, 2 ].
r sin
4.3.2

(4-3)

. 4-3, :
r cos
n=
,
sin

, , r. , :
v x ( x, y )
r
v ( x, y ) =
,
v y ( x, y )

inco min g =

cos vx ( r cos , r sin )



rd

sin v y ( r cos , r sin )

( v ( r cos , r sin ) cos v ( r cos , r sin ) sin )


x

(4-4)
+

rd .

319-AN/181

21

dx = rd
d

rn

. 4-3. r

4.4

4.4.1
,
. "
", . 4-4, S .
4.4.2
, ( (4-2)), ,
, , :
r r

inco min g = ( n v ) dS .
+

(4-5)

, ds
, , dV dV.

4.5

4.5.1
,
"" , ( xt , yt , zt )
t ( x&t , y& t , z&t ) t.

319-AN/181

22

4.5.2
(
""), t .
, t ( xt , yt , zt , x&t , y&t , z&t )
f t = f t ( x, y, z , x& , y& , z& ) , f t ( x, y , z, x& , y& , z& )xy z x& y& z& =
P{xt [ x, x + x ] , yt [ y, y + y ] ,K}.
4.5.3

. X t ( xt , yt , zt )
t, Vt ( x&t , y& t , z&t ) t. X
( x, y, z ) , V ( x& , y& , z& ) . r ,
V, ( V ) ,
.
4.5.4
,
. 4-4, .
( x, y, z , x& , y& , z& ) f t ( x, y, z , x& , y& , z& )
(X,V) ft (X,V).
4.5.5
. 4-5

r
, . Vt . 4-5
, Xt.
, X
dS
r
r
r
n. , Vt " dS" V .
rt
dS t t + t
+
r
n (V t ) dS t. + , ,
, .r ,
dS t t + t V t
, . 4-5. ,

= S (n L)

r
n

. 4-4.

319-AN/181

23

dS V
[ t,t+ t] , t .

( Xt,Vt)

V t

dS

(X0 ,V 0 )

. 4-5.
,


,

+
r r
f t ( X ,V ) n (V t ) dS . ,
X
ur
. V
,
.
ur
V t .

4.5.6
, , ,
t, X dS t t + t
+
r r
f t ( X ,V ) n (V t ) dS dV :
r r
Pr { t dS [t,t + t ]} = t dS ft ( X ,V )(n V ) + dV . (4-6)

4.5.7
,
:
t
,
t
+

t
[
]

319-AN/181

24

Pr { t [t,t + t ]} = t

( f ( X ,V )(nr V ) dV ) dS.
+

(4-7)

(. . 145160 10 10).
(. "
" 12 10). , dS
r
X n X. dS (4-7)
, dV ,
.
4.5.8
. 2-2 2-3 2, ,
. , Pr{ t
[t,t + t]} , ,
t, [t,t + t].
1993
(. 3 10).
4.5.9
(4-7) ,
. 2-2 2-3 ( ,
). (4-7) :
Pr { t [t,t + t ]
r r
= t ft ( X , V )(n V ) + dV dS .

}
(4-8)

4.5.10
, ft .

. .
(4-8). , (4-8) t
ft. , (t)
:
(t ) =

( f ( X ,V )(nr V ) dV ) dS ,
r

(4-9)

(4-8) :
Pr { t [t,t + t ]} = t ( t ) .

4.6

(4-10)

[ta,tb]

4.6.1
(4-7)
[t,t + t].
[ta,tb]. [ta,tb] N
t = (tb,ta)/N, N t,
. 0 i N 1 [ti,ti+1],
ti = ta + i t.
4.6.2
, ta ,
: N 1
Fi, 1, :

319-AN/181
a)

25

Fk = 0 0 k i 1

b) ti
[ti,ti+1].
4.6.3
, Fi = 0. a) ,
Fi , Fi , Fj
( j > i) . , Fi = 1,
[ti,ti+1]. ,

n-1

F
i =0

, ,

n-1

n-1
Pr Fi = 1 = E Fi . :
i =0

i =0
n-1

Pr { [ta ,tb ]} = Pr Fi = 1
i =0

n-1
= E Fi
i =0

(4-11)

n-1

= E { Fi } .
i =0

4.6.4

, 0 i N 1 :
E { Fi } = Pr { Fi = 1 }
= Pr { [ta ,ti ] [ti ,ti +1 ]}

(4-12)

Pr { ti [ti ,ti +1 ]} .

, A = { ti
[ti,ti+1]} :
A = A1 U A2

A1 = { [ta ,ti ] [ti ,ti +1 ]}

(4-13)

A2 = { [ta ,ti [ , ti [ti ,ti +1 ]} .


4.6.5
A1 A2 , Pr{A} = Pr{A1} + Pr{A2}, ,
Pr{A1} Pr{A}. , (4-10) Pr { ti
[ti,ti+1]} = (ti) t. (4-11) (4-12), :
n-1

Pr { [ta ,tb ]} t ( ti )
i =0

tb

( t ) dt.

(4-14)

ta

4.6.6
(4-14)
[ta,tb]. ,
" " (4-14) " = ". " " (4-14) Pr{A1} Pr{A} (4-12) A1 A2,
(4-13). A1 A2 ,
, Pr{A2} = 0. ,

26

319-AN/181

" [ta,ti], ti [ti,ti+1]"


i. , i
, [ta,tb]. ,
[ta,tb], " "
"=" (4-14). :
tb

Pr { [ta ,tb ]} = ( t ) dt.

(4-15)

ta

4.6.7
"
": , [ta,tb]
, .
.
, 1 ,

.
.
4.6.8
Doc 9689
Doc 9574 .

______________________

5

,

5.1

5.1.1
, ,
.. 60- (. 13 10).
,
, . . ,
, .
5.1.2

, . 6

.
5.1.3
Doc 9574 ( )

(RVSM). ( ) 6-
(RGCSP/6, Doc 9536)
. 1215 Doc 9689

.
5.1.4

, . .
. ,
, "
" ,
.

5.2

5.2.1
,
, , Sy
. ,
,
tinit tend. ,
, (. . 5-1).

27

28

319-AN/181

Sy

. 5-1.

5.2.2

tinit tend. ,
,
, . 5-2, .
. 4.5 4, (Xt,Vt)
( ) , ft
,
.
( , ).
5.2.3
-, ,
. ,

.
.
" ", , , ,
. , ,
, , , ,
, .
5.2.4
X = ( x, y, z ), , V = ( x& , y& , z& ),
, ft (X,V)
,
:
f t ( X ,V ) = f x , x& ,t ( x, x& ) f y , y& ,t ( y, y& ) f z , z& ,t ( z , z& ).

(5-1)

319-AN/181

29

( x,- y, z)

(- x,-y,z)

( x, y, z )
x

(- x, y, z)
1

. 5-2.

5.2.5
-, , ,
. ,

.
(5-2), ,
:
f x , x& ,t ( x, x& ) = f xt ( xt = x) f x&t xt ( x&t = x& xt = x)
f y , y& ,t ( y, y& ) = f y ( y ) f y& y ( y& t = y& yt = y )

(5-2)

f z , z& ,t ( z , z& ) = f z ( z ) f z& z ( z&t = z& zt = z ).


5.2.6

(pdf) (5-2) :
a)

f xt ( xt = x) pdf
t, f x&t xt ( x&t = x& xt = x ) pdf
t
t;

b)

f y ( y ) pdf ,
f y& y ( y&t = y& yt = y ) pdf
t
t;

c)

f z ( z ) pdf
, f z& z ( z&t = z& zt = z ) pdf

319-AN/181

30

t
t.

5.3

5.3.1
, ,
, Pr. , ,
. 5.4 5.5, ,
.
5.3.2
.
. (. . 5.3.35.3.13) Pr
- . . 5.3.145.3.18 Pr
.

Pr
5.3.3
Pr [tinit , tend ]
. Pr :
a)

tinit ,
"".

b) tinit
;
[tinit , tend ] . " ", "".
5.3.4
P1 P2 .
. tinit :
y

f y ( y )dy (, f y ( y ) pdf , y,

y = y

, y y y ), Py ( S y ) ,
. 3.4 3. tinit
z

f z ( z ) dz Pz(0). :

z = z

P1 = Py ( S y ) Pz (0) .

(5-3)

5.3.5
. 5-3 " " ""
. ,
.
, . 5-2. " ",
. 5-3, tinit [x, x] (
),
. tinit
, z, z,
" ". , tinit

319-AN/181

31

[x, x],
.
5.3.6

(4-15) P2

[tinit , tend ] :

P2 = Pr { [tinit , tend ]}
=

r r

( u ) du (t ) = ( f ( X ,V )(n V )

tend

tinit

(5-4)

dV dS ,

, ,
. . 5-3, 1 1
, 2 2 ,
1, 1, 2 2. (t ) (5-4) ,
:
(t ) =

( f ( X ,V )(nr V ) dV ) dS
+

(5-5)

= 1 (t ) + 1' (t ) + 2 (t ) + 2' (t ).

5.3.7
.
, .
,
. 5-2,
r r +
, n V z& :

Xtinit

1
2'

x
2

1'

. 5-3.

Xtinit

" " ""

319-AN/181

32
x = x

y = y

z&

1 (t ) =

x = x y = y x& y& z&

&
,
f dz& dy& dxdydx

(5-6)

:
f = f xt ( x) f x&t xt ( x&t = x& xt = x) f y ( y ) f y& y ( y&t = y& yt = y ) f z (z ) f z& z ( z&t = z& zt = z ).
5.3.8

(5-6) :

a)

y& =

f y& y ( y& t = y& yt = y ) dy& = 1 y.

b)

x& =

f x&t xt ( x&t = x& xt = x)dx& = 1 x.

c)

f y ( y )dy = Py ( S y )

y = y

.
d) t [tinit , tend ] ,
x

x = x

e)

z&

f xt ( x)dx = 1.

f z& z ( z&t = z& zt = z )dz& = E { z&t zt = z } .

z&

:
1 (t ) = Py ( S y ) E { z&t zt = z } f z (z ).

(5-7)

5.3.9
1 ,

r r +

, f z (z ) f z (z ) n V
z& + . :

1' (t ) = Py ( S y ) E { z&t+ zt = z } f z (z ) .

(5-8)

5.3.10
2 2 ,
, y z . ,
:

2 (t ) = Pz (0) E y&t yt = y f y ( y )

(5-9)

2 ' (t ) = Pz (0) E y&t+ yt = y f y ( y ) .

(5-10)

5.3.11
1 (t ), 2 (t ), 1' (t ) 2 ' (t ) t,
f y& y ( y&t = y& yt = y ) f z& z ( z&t = z& zt = z ) . (5-4), (5-5)
(5-7) (5-10):

319-AN/181

33

P2 = ( tend tinit )

(5-11)

= Py ( S y ) E { z&t zt = z } f z (z ) + E { z&t+ zt = z } f z (z )

( {

(5-12)

+ Pz (0) E y& t yt = y f y ( y ) + E y& t+ yt = y f y ( y ) .


5.3.12
Pr
:

[tinit , tend ]

P1 P2 ,

Pr = P1 + P2 = Py ( S y ) Pz ( 0 ) + ( tend tinit )

(5-13)

, (5-12).
5.3.13
(5-13)
. . 5.3.145.3.18
.

Pr
5.3.14
(5-13) y z .
, y z, ,
.
, f z (z ) f z (z ) f z (0) , f y ( y ) f y ( y )
f y (0) . , (5-13)
:

(
+ P (0) f (0) ( E { y&

= Py ( S y ) f z (0) E { z&t zt = 0} + E { z&t+ zt = 0}


z

yt = 0} + E { y& t+ yt = 0} .

, E {v + } + E {v } = E { v } v ,

= Py ( S y ) f z (0) E z&t zt = 0 + Pz (0) f y (0) E y& t yt = 0 .


y

, f z (z ) f z (z ) f z (0)

f y ( y )dy = Py ( S y )

y = y

Py ( S y ) =

f y ( y )dy 2 y f y (0) , Pz (0) 2z f z (0) .

y = y

(5-12) :

} .

E z&t zt = 0 E y&t yt = 0
= Py ( S y ) Pz (0)
+

2 z
2 y

(5-14)

319-AN/181

34

5.3.15
, E y&t yt = 0 E z&t zt = 0
. E z&t zt = 0

t, E y& t yt = 0 (
t t).

5.3.16
, Doc 9689, E z&t zt = 0
E y& t yt = 0 z& y& .
E x&t xt = 0 ( t
t) x& .
,
" ".
:

}
{

Pr = P1 + P2 = Py ( S y ) Pz ( 0 ) + ( tend tinit )

(5-15)

z&
y&
= Py ( S y ) Pz (0)
+
2z 2 y

(5-16)

5.3.17

(5-15) (5-16) :

y&
z&
+
Pr = Py ( S y ) Pz ( 0 ) 1 + ( tend tinit )
2 y 2z

(5-17)

(5-17)
, ( tend tinit ) .
,
2
tend tinit x , (5-17) :
x&
y& z&
+ x .
Pr = Py ( S y ) Pz ( 0 ) 1 + x
y x& z x&

(5-18)

5.3.18
(5-18)
, .
(5-14)(5-17) ,
"" ( ,
). . 5.4 5.5
, ,
2
tend tinit x .
x&

319-AN/181

5.4

35

5.4.1
1 ,
.

.
.
.
5.4.2

(5-18);
, . 1
.
5.4.3
,
, F , nbsame nbopp
.
5.4.4

- x& ,
. , ,
2V , V .
5.4.5
, (5-18), nbsame
, :
y& z&
(5-19)
+ x
Psame = Py ( S y ) Pz ( 0 ) 1 + x
y x& z x&

nbopp
, :
y& z&
.
+ x
Popp = Py ( S y ) Pz ( 0 ) 1 + x
y 2V z 2V

(5-20)

5.4.6

nbsame Psame. ,
, ,
nbsame Psame.
, E{Nbsame}, :
y& z&
+ x
E { Nbsame } = nbsame Py ( S y ) Pz ( 0 ) 1 + x
y x& z x&

(5-21)

:
y& z&
E { Nbopp } = nbopp Py ( S y ) Pz ( 0 ) 1 + x
+ x
.
y 2V z 2V

(5-22)

319-AN/181

36

5.4.7
1 ,
.
, 1 ,
, Nac,same, :
N ac , same =

y& z&
2nbsame
+ x
Py ( S y ) Pz ( 0 ) 1 + x
y x& z x&
F

(5-23)

, :
N ac ,opp =

2nbopp
F

y& z&
+ x
Py ( S y ) Pz ( 0 ) 1 + x
.
y 2V z 2V

(5-24)

5.4.8
x(same) ,
. x(same)
,
, . ,
,
2
2nbsame x (,
x&

2 x
x&

), :

2nbsame
x ( same) =

2x
x&

(5-25)

x (opp ) =

5.4.9

2 nbopp
F

x
V .

(5-26)

(5-25) (5-23) :
x&
y&
z&
+
+
N ac , same = x ( same) Py ( S y ) Pz ( 0 )
2x 2 y 2z

(5-27)

:
V
y&
z&
+
N ac ,opp = x (opp ) Py ( S y ) Pz ( 0 ) +
x 2 y 2z

(5-28)

5.4.10
,
,
.
x(same) x(opp) .
, ,

319-AN/181

37

Sx (120 . 11 10).
,
[ S x , S x ] , , ,

5.4.11

2x x
=
.
2S x S x
, prox(same) prox(opp)

Sx, x ( same) =

Sx

prox ( same) x (opp ) =

Sx

prox (opp ) ,

(5-27) (5-28) :

N ac , same = proxx ( same) Py ( S y ) Pz ( 0 )

y&
z&
x x&

+
+

S x 2x 2 y 2z

(5-29)

N ac ,opp = prox (opp ) Py ( S y ) Pz ( 0 )

5.4.12

y&
z&
x V
+
+
S x x 2 y 2z

(5-30)

8 11 10 prox ( same) prox (opp )

" "
.
Es Eo .
(5-29) (5-30) , :

N ac = Py ( S y ) Pz ( 0 )

5.5

x&
y&
z&
+
+
Es
S x 2x 2 y 2z

V
y&
z&
+ Eo +
+

x 2 y 2z

(5-31)

5.5.1
(5-27) (5-28) .
,
1 . Nx(same)
Nx(opp) . 5.4, Nx(same)
, ,
( ) .
:
N x ( same) =

2 nbsame
F

(5-32)

N x (opp ) =

2 nbopp

(5-33)

319-AN/181

38
5.5.2

(5-32) (5-23), :
y& z&
N ac , same = N x ( same) Py ( S y ) Pz ( 0 ) 1 + x
+ x
y x& z x&

(5-34)


y& z&
N ac ,opp = N x (opp ) Py ( S y ) Pz ( 0 ) 1 + x
+ x
.
y 2V z 2V

(5-35)


, .

______________________

6.1

CRM ,

6.1.1

, , 5,
, . , Sy
Sz, Py.(Sy),
, Sy,
Pz.(Sz),
, Sz. Pz.(0) Py.(0),
, z y . (5-18),
, :
y& z&
+ x .
Pr = Py ( 0 ) Pz ( S z ) 1 + x
y x& z x&

(6-1)

6.1.2
(5-29) (5-30),
, :

N ac , same = E ( same) Py ( 0 ) Pz ( S z )

y&
z&
x x&

+
+

S x 2x 2 y 2z

(6-2)

N ac ,opp = E (opp ) Py ( 0 ) Pz ( S z )

y&
z&
x V
+
+

S x x 2 y 2z

(6-3)

6.1.3
, (5-34) (5-35),
, :
y& z&
+ x
N ac , same = N x ( same) Py ( 0 ) Pz ( S z ) 1 + x
y x& z x&

(6-4)

y& z&
N ac ,opp = N x (opp ) Py ( 0 ) Pz ( S z ) 1 + x
+ x
.
y 2V z 2V

(6-5)

39

319-AN/181

40

6.1.4
(6-2) (6-5)
.
.

6.2

6.2.1
,
, .
. Sz
. ,
, tinit tend
. (. . 6-1),
,
.
6.2.2
tinit tend,
4, ,
,
, . 6-2. (Xt,Vt) -
() , ft
,
.

. 6-1.

319-AN/181

41

( xy, 0 , z)

(- xy,0 , z)

1
x
1

(- xy,0 ,- z)

( xy, 0 ,- z)

. 6-2.

6.2.3
, ,

. , . -, ,

. X = ( x, y, z ) V = ( x&, y& , z& )
,
f t ( X ,V ) :
f t ( X ,V ) = f x , y , x& , y& ,t ( x, y, x& , y& ) f z , z& ,t ( z , z& ).

(6-6)

6.2.4
-, ,
,
" ", . , ,
(, ) :

f x , x& , y , y& ,t ( x, y, x& , y& ) = f xt , yt ( ( xt , yt ) = ( x, y ) ) f x&t , y&t xt , yt ( ( x&t , y& t ) = ( x& , y& ) ( xt , yt ) = ( x, y ) )
f z , z& ,t ( z , z& ) = f z ( z ) f z& z ( z&t = z& zt = z ),

(6-7)

f z ( z ) f z& z ( z&t = z& zt = z ) .


6.2.5

, (6-7), :
a)

f xt , yt ( ( xt , yt ) = ( x, y ) )
t f x&t , y&t xt , yt ( x&t , y& t ) = ( x& , y& ) ( xt , yt ) = ( x, y )

t
t;

319-AN/181

42

f z
f z& z ( z&t = z& zt = z )
t
t.

b)

6.2.6
,
.
, Pr. : -,
Pr,
.

Pr
6.2.7
Pr [tinit,tend]
. :
tinit ,
"" .

a)

b) tinit ,
[tinit,tend].
" ".

P1 P2 .
6.2.8
. tinit
z

f z ( z )dz , Pz(Sz).

z = z

P1 = Pz ( S z ).

(6-8)

6.2.9
. 6-3 " " .
. 6-2. ,
Xt xy , ,
.
6.2.10
P2 (4-15)
[tinit,tend]:

P2 = Pr { [tinit , tend ]}
=

r r

( u ) du (t ) = ( f ( X ,V )(n V )

tend

tinit

dV dS ,

(6-9)

. . 6-3, 1 1
,
1 1. (t) (6-9) ,
:

(t ) =

( f ( X ,V )(nr V ) dV ) dS
t

= 1 (t ) + 1' (t ).

(6-10)

319-AN/181

43

6.2.11
,
. 6-2,
r r +
, n V z& .
:

z& (K) d ... ,

1 (t ) =

x +y
2

2
xy

(6-11)

( x& , y& ) z&

d ... dx dy dx& dy& dz& , ()


:
f xt , yt ( ( x, y ) ) f x&t , y&t xt , yt ( ( x& , y& ) ( x, y ) ) f z (z ) f z& z ( z& z ) .

6.2.12

(6-11) :
a)

x&t , y&t xt , yt

& & = 1 ( x, y ) ;
( ( x&, y& ) ( x, y) ) dxdy

x& , y&

b)

f xt , yt ( x, y ) dxdy = 1 ( t [tinit , tend ]

2
x 2 + y 2 xy

);
c)

z&

f z& z ( z&t = z& zt = z )dz& = E { z&t zt = z }.

z&

Xtinit

1'

X tinit

. 6-3.

" "

319-AN/181

44
6.2.13

:
1 (t ) = E { z&t zt = z } f z (z )

(6-12)

:
1' (t ) = E { z&t+ zt = z } f z (z ).

(6-13)

6.2.14
/ , , 1 (t ) 1' (t )
t, f z& z ( z&t = z& zt = z )
. , :
P2 = ( tend tinit )

(6-14)

= E { z&t zt = z } f z (z ) + E { z&t+ zt = z } f z (z )

(6-15)

Pr = P1 + P2 = Pz ( S z ) + ( tend tinit )

(6-16)

, (6-16). (6-16)
.
.

Pr
6.2.15
. 5.3.145.3.18 5, (6-16)
z , fz.(z) fz.(z) fz.(0), fz.(0)
P (S )
f z (0) z z . E {v + } + E {v } = E { v } , (6-15)
2z
:

} P2(S ) = z& P2(S ) .

= E z&t zt = 0

(6-17)

, z&

, .
6.2.16
,
, [tend tinit]. vrel
.
6.2.17
. 6-4 A2
A1, ,
. u A2 A1, ,
,
u [xy, xy]. u A2
A1 d = 2 xy2 u 2 .

319-AN/181

45

A2
d= 2

xy u

xy

A1

xy

xy

. 6-4. A2
A1, ,
A2

6.2.18
, A2 A1 ,
[xy, xy], :

E {tend tinit } =

2xy

1
=
vrel
=

xy

2 xy2 u 2

xy

xy

u
1
xy

xy

xy
2 vrel

vrel
2

du

t
u
.
1 du =
2
t
2

du

(6-18)

319-AN/181

46

6.2.19
(tend tinit) (6-16) (6-17),
:
z& xy
.
Pr { } = Pz ( S z ) 1 +
4 vrel z

(6-19)

(6-19) ,
. 6.3.

6.3

6.3.1
N(cross) , . . (
), .
:
2 nbcross
,
(6-20)
N (cross ) =
F
nbcross .
6.3.2
, (5-23), 1 ,
Nacc,cross, :
N ac , cross =

2 nbcross Pr { }

F
= N (cross ) Pr { }

(6-21)

z& xy
,
= N (cross ) Pz ( S z ) 1 +

4 vrel z

(6-20) (6-19). (6-21)



, .
6.3.3
(cross) ,
, , . .
, .
:
(cross ) =

2nbcross E {tend tinit }


F

xy

= 2nbcross

2 vrel
.
F

(6-22)

319-AN/181

47

6.3.4
(6-19) (6-22), Nacc,cross (cross)
:
(cross ) =

2nbcross E {tend tinit }


F

xy

= 2nbcross

(6-23)

2 vrel
.
F

(6-23)
,
.

______________________

7

,
:
,

7.1

7.1.1
5
Doc 9689. ,
. T.
. ,
. ,
, .
7.1.2


. .

T.
,
, t = 0. ,
,
. ,
, T

. .
, [0,T + ],
.

7.2

" "
, T + . U( s) ,
" " t = 0 t =
T + , s. ,
/ . w(s)
s . ,
Sx. "
" , , T + ,

U ( s ) w( s )ds .

48

319-AN/181
7.3

49

7.3.1
, ,
.
Sy Sz ,
. (5-27) :
x&
y&
z&
N ac , x = x ( same) Py ( 0 ) Pz ( 0 )
+
+
2x 2 y 2z

(7-1)

7.3.2
x.(same) ,

, . x.(same)
, D . ,
N ,
.
, K N
, K N D.
7.3.3
K N K N 1
.
.
D T + ,
U ( s) w( s )ds.
Pr { A1 A1 K Ak } Pr { A1} + Pr { A2 } + K + Pr { Ak } , ,


D

times U ( s) w( s )ds :
T
P = Pr { }
D
Pr { [ 0,T + ]}
T
D
U ( s) w( s)ds.
T

(7-2)

7.3.4
K N D,
K N 1
2t (K N 1) (Pr {
}). /
2
t x .
x&

t , , t = 0
S
t = T + , s. , , s Sx, x& x
T +
( x&
), t (T + )

7.3.5

2x
.
Sx

, :

319-AN/181

50
x ( same) =

2 t ( K N 1) Pr { }
KND

= 2 t

K N 1 D

U ( s ) w( s )ds

K N D T +

(7-3)

4
1 D

x (T + )
U ( s ) w( s ) ds
Sx
D T +

4x
U ( s ) w( s )ds.
Sx

, x.(same), :
7.3.6

4x
U ( s ) w( s )ds.
Sx

, 1 :
x&
y&
z&
4

N ac , x = x U ( s ) w( s )ds Py ( 0 ) Pz ( 0 )
+
+
2x 2 y 2z
Sx

(7-4)


, , 5
Doc 9689.

7.4

x&

7.4.1
x& ,
1 Doc 9689. . , d10 d20
, d10 d 20
1A = d10 d10 2A = d 20 d20 (. . 7-1).
7.4.2
, V1 V2 , V1 V2
v1 = V1 V1 v2 = V2 V2
. t = T + :

sep = d10 + 1A + V1 + v1 (T + ) d20 2A V2 + v2 (T + )

(7-5)

= d d + V1 V2 (T + ) + + ( v1 v2 )(T + ) ,

0
1

0
2

A
1

A
2

.
t = T + , sep x
V1 V2 + ( v1 v2 ) . ,

:

x& = E

{ (V V ) + ( v v )
1

1A 2A + ( v1 v2 )(T + ) x d10 d20 + V1 V2 (T + ) .

7.4.3
(7-6)
1A , 2A , v1 v2.

x& ,

(7-6)

319-AN/181

51

A2

t = 0

d 20

2A > 0

A1

d10

1A < 0

. 7-1. x&

______________________

8.1


(CRM)

8.1.1
CRM ,
1 :
a)

b) 1 (
).
8.1.2
" "
, . ,
CRM. , CRM ,
"" , .
, , ,
, ,
.
8.1.3
9 (
/ , ),
-

.
. ,
:
, . .
8.1.4
,
. ,
1
. , CRM
,
,
CRM.
8.1.5
,
.
9. ,
, ,
.
52

319-AN/181

8.2

53

CRM
/

8.2.1
5. . 5-4 5, Sy
, Sy = 0 ,
.
[t0,t1]. ,
,
, . 5-2 5. (Xt,Vt)
(
) , ft .
,
, :
f t ( X ,V ) = f x , x& ,t ( x, x& ) f y , y& ,t ( y, y& ) f z , z& ,t ( z, z& ).

(8-1)

8.2.2

,
:
f x , x& ,t ( x, x& ) = f xt ( xt = x) f x&t xt ( x&t = x& xt = x)
f y , y& ,t ( y, y& ) = f yt ( yt = y ) f y&t yt ( y& t = y& yt = y )

(8-2)

f z , z& ,t ( z , z& ) = f zt ( zt = z ) f z&t zt ( z&t = z& zt = z ).


(8-2) (5-2)
, , fzt (zt = z) fyt (yt = y) t.

8.3

8.3.1
,
, , Xt
( ), Xt (0,0,0).
8.3.2
, t0
, Xt0 ,
(4-15). Xt , Xt , (415) :
t1

Pr { [t0 , t1 ]} = ( t ) dt
(t ) =

r r
f t ( X , V )(n V ) + dV dS

( x , y , z ) x& , y& , z&

( x , y , z ) x& , y& , z&


=

r r
n V

( nr V )

t0

f xt ( x ) f x&t xt ( x& x ) f yt ( y ) f y&t yt ( y& y )d K dS

f xt ( 0 ) f x&t xt ( x& 0 ) f yt (0) f y&t yt ( y& 0)d K dS .

(8-3)

319-AN/181

54

8.3.3
, , . (t)
(8-3) , . . 5-3
5, 1 1 , 2 2 .
, 3 3 , I1, I1', I2, I2', I3, I3'
.
8.3.4

x = x
y = y

I1 (t ) = f zt (0) f xt (0) dx f yt (0)dy f x&t xt ( x& 0)dx& f y&t yt ( y& 0)dy& z& f z&t zt ( z& 0) dz&

y&
z&
x = x
y = y
x&

Pr { zt z }
2 z

Pr { xt x } Pr { yt y } E { z&t zt = 0} ,

f x&t xt ( x& 0) dx& = 1 ,


x&

8.3.5

(8-4)

Pr { zt z }
.
f y&t yt ( y& 0)dy& = 1 f zt ( 0 )
&

2z
y

:
I1' =

Pr { zt z }
2 z

Pr { xt x } Pr { yt y } E { z&t+ zt = 0}


I1 (t ) + I1' (t ) =
8.3.6

Pr { zt z }
2z

Pr { xt x } Pr { yt y } E { z&t zt = 0}.

(8-5)

:
I 2 (t ) + I 2' (t ) =

Pr { yt y }
2 y

Pr { xt x } Pr { zt z } E { y& t yt = 0}

(8-6)

Pr { yt y } Pr { zt z } E { x&t xt = 0}.

(8-7)

I 3 (t ) + I 3' (t ) =
8.3.7

Pr { xt x }
2x

, [t0,t1] :
t1

Pr { [t0 , t1 ]} = ( t ) dt
t0

E { x&t xt = 0} E { y& t yt = 0} E { z&t zt = 0}


(t ) = Pr { xt x } Pr { yt y } Pr { zt z }
+
+
.

2 x
2 y
2z

(8-8)

319-AN/181

8.4

55

(8-8) ,
"" .
, , ,
,
(8-8) :
t1

Pr { [t0 , t1 ]} = ( t ) dt
t0

x&
y&
z&
(t ) = Pr { xt x } Py ( S y ) Pz ( 0 )
+
+
2x 2 y 2z

(8-9)

z& , y& x& . 5.3.145.3.18 5.


, Pr { xt x } 2x f xt (0), :
t1

Pr { [t0 , t1 ]} = ( t ) dt
t0


(t ) = f xt (0) Py ( S y ) Pz ( S z ) x& + x y& + x z& .

y
z

______________________

(8-10)

9.1

9.1.1
,
,
[t0,t1]. ,
, ,
, . 6-2 6.
(Xt,Vt) (
) , ft .
,
, . .:
f t ( X ,V ) = f x , y , x& , y& ,t ( x, y, x& , y& ) f z , z& ,t ( z , z& ) .

(9-1)

9.1.2

.
:
f x , y , x& , y& ,t ( x, y, x& , y& ) = f xt , yt ( ( xt , yt ) = ( x, y ) ) f x&t , y&t xt , yt ( ( x&t , y&t ) = ( x& , y& ) ( xt , yt ) = ( x, y ) )
f z , z& ,t ( z , z& ) = f zt ( zt = z ) f z&t zt ( z&t = z& zt = z ).

(9-2)

(9-2)
, , fzt (zt = z)
t.

9.2

9.2.1
. 8.2 8,
,
, , Xt , Xt
(0,0,0).
9.2.2
, t0
, Xt0 . Xt , Xt
, (4-15) :

56

319-AN/181

57

t1

Pr { [t0 , t1 ]} = ( t ) dt
(t ) =

t0

r r
f t ( X ,V )(n V ) + dV dS

( x , y , z ) x& , y& , z&

( x , y , z ) x& , y& , z&

r r
n V

( nr V )

f xt , yt
f xt , yt

(9-3)

( x, y ) f x&t , y&t xt , yt ( x&, y& x, y )K dS

( 0, 0 ) f x&t , y&t xt , yt ( x&, y& 0, 0 )K dS .

9.2.3
, , : ( 1),
( 1) ( 2). (t) (9-3)
, . I1, I1' I2 .
9.2.4

:
I1 ( t ) =

2
x 2 + y 2 xy

& & z& f zt (0) f z& z ( z& 0)dz& dxdy


f xt , yt ( (0, 0) ) f x&t , y&t xt , yt ( ( x& , y& ) (0, 0) ) dxdy
t t
& &
&

x, y
z

= xy2 f xt , yt ( (0, 0) ) f zt ( 0 ) E { z&t zt = 0}


xy2 f xt , yt ( (0, 0) )

Pr { zt z }
2z

x&t , y&t | xt , yt

(9-4)

E { z&t zt = 0} ,

& & = 1 f zt ( 0 )
(( x& , y& ) | (0, 0))dxdy

Pr { zt z }

x& y&

9.2.5

2z

:
I1' (t ) xy2 f xt , yt ( (0, 0) )

Pr { zt z }
2z

E { z&t+ zt = 0} ,

(9-5)


I1 (t ) + I1' (t ) xy2 f xt , yt ( (0,0) )
f xt , yt ( (0,0) )
2
xy

9.2.6

Pr { zt z }
2z

Pr { zt z }
2z

( E { z&

+
t

zt = 0} + E { z&t zt = 0}

)
(9-6)

E { z&t zt = 0}.

, :

z = z
r r
I 2 (t ) = f z&t zt ( z& 0)dz& f zt (0) dz f xt , yt ( (0,0) )
n V

2
z&
z = z
x 2 + y 2 =xy
x& , y&

& &.
dl f x&t , y&t xt , yt ( ( x& , y& ) (0,0) ) dxdy

(9-7)

319-AN/181

58

r r

(n V )

dl ,

2
x 2 + y 2 = xy

C: C = {( x, y ); x + y =
2

x& , y&

2
xy

} , C ( x&, y& )

r
r r
r r
n , , (. 9-1) n V = x& 2 + y& 2 cos( + ) , , n V

( nr V )

& & .
(L) dxdy


= 0 for in ,
2 2

3
= x& 2 + y& 2 cos( ) , . :
2 2

( x , y )C

r r
n V

3
2

dl =

x& 2 + y& 2 xy cos d

(9-8)

= 2 x& 2 + y& 2 xy .
9.2.7
(9-7) (9-8),
:

z = z
r r
I 2 (t ) = f z&t zt ( z& 0)dz& f zt (0)dz f xt , yt ( (0,0) )
n V
x& , y&
2
z&
z = z
x 2 + y 2 = xy

& &
dl f x&t , y&t xt , yt ( ( x& , y& ) (0,0) ) dxdy

& &
1 Pr { zt z } f xt , yt ( (0,0) ) 2xy x& 2 + y& 2 f x&t , y&t xt , yt ( ( x& , y& ) (0,0) ) dxdy
x& , y&

2xy Pr { zt z } f xt , yt ( (0,0) ) E

x&t2 + y&t2 ( xt , yt ) = (0,0) .

n
+

(x&, y&)

. 9-1. ,

(9-9)

319-AN/181
9.2.8

(9-4), (9-5) (9-7), :

(t ) = I1 (t ) + I1' (t ) + I 2 (t )
= 2xy f xt , yt ( (0,0) ) Pr { zt z } E

xy2 f x , y ( (0,0) )
t

Pr { zt z }

2z

vrel,t E

x&t2 + y&t2 ( xt , yt ) = (0,0) +

E { z&t

E
2
= xy2 f xt , yt ( (0,0) ) Pr { zt z }

9.2.9

59

(9-10)

zt = 0}

} + 1 E { z&

x&t2 + y& t2 ( xt , yt ) = (0,0)

xy

zt = 0}
.
z

x&t2 + y& t2 ( xt , yt ) = (0, 0) z&t E { z&t

zt = 0}.

(9-10), [t 0 , t1 ] :
t1
2 vrel ,t 1 z&t
.
+
P = ( t ) dt ( t ) = xy2 f xt , yt ( (0, 0) ) Pr { zt z }
xy 2 z
t0

9.2.10

t vrel ,t z&t

(9-11)

t t
.
9.2.11
(9-11) . ,
.

9.3

9.3.1
vrel ,t
t t.
,
vrel. z&t
, z& .
9.3.2
,
Pr { zt z } Pz (Sz), Sz . ,
, :
2v
1 z&
rel
+
P = xy2 Pz ( S z )
xy 2 z

t1
f xt , yt ( (0,0) ) dt.
t
0

(9-12)

319-AN/181

60

9.4


ADS-C

9.4.1
,
,
RNP k, . 5.4.1.2.1.5.1 "
. " (PANS-ATM, Doc 4444):
" ,
,
. , ,
". (. . 9-2.)
CRM 1 10.
9.4.2
,
, ,
.
[t0,t1].
9.4.3
d10 d20 1 2
t = t0 . 1A 2A , 1C 2C
. f A ( x ) 1A 2A (
) f C ( x ) 1C 2C (
). , , V1 V2,
[t0,t1].
t :
x1 ( t ) = d10 + 1A + V1 ( t t0 )

(9-13)

y1 ( t ) = 1C

(
y ( t ) = ( d

)
) sin +

x2 ( t ) = d20 2A cos 2C sin + V2 ( t t0 ) cos


2

0
2

A
2

C
2

cos + V2 ( t t0 ) sin .

(9-14)

, [t0,t1]
, 2A , ,
. 9-3.
9.4.4

x- t :
x ( t ) x1 ( t ) x2 ( t )
= (V1 V2 cos )( t t0 ) d10 + d20 cos + 1A 2A cos + 2C sin

(9-15)

= Dx ( t ) + cos + sin ,
A
1

A
2

C
2

Dx ( t ) = (V1 V2 cos )( t t0 ) d10 + d20 cos x- t


V1 V2.

319-AN/181

61

. 9-2.

1C

2C

2A

1A

. 9-3.

319-AN/181

62

9.4.5
y- t
:
y ( t ) y1 ( t ) y2 ( t )
= V2 ( t t0 ) sin + d20 sin + 1C 2A sin 2C cos

(9-16)

= Dy ( t ) + sin cos ,
C
1

A
2

C
2

Dy ( t ) = V2 ( t t0 ) sin + d20 sin .

9.4.6

f xt , yt ( (0, 0) ) (9-12) (

, (0,0))
( x(t ), y (t ) )
2h2h:
P = Pr { h y ( t ) h h x ( t ) h}
A
A
C

1 = 2 cos 2 sin Dx ( t ) + h
1 = 2 sin + 2 cos Dy (t ) + h
A
C

d 2C d1C d 2A d1A

fC ( )
f
f

(
)
(
)
A
C
1
1
A = A cos C sin D ( t ) h
C = A sin + Ccos D (t ) h

x
y
2
2
1 2
1 2

f ( )
A
2

2A

4h 2

2C

C
2

f A ( 2A ) f C ( 2C ) f A ( 2A cos 2C sin Dx ( t ) ) f C ( 2A sin + 2C cos Dy ( t ) ) d 2A d 2C .

2A , 2C

9.4.7
4h 2 f xt , yt ( (0, 0) )
h. , :
f xt , yt ( (0,0) ) =

f A ( 2A ) f C ( 2C ) f A ( 2A cos 2C sin Dx ( t ) ) f C ( 2A sin + 2C cos Dy ( t ) ) d 2Ad 2C .

2A , 2C

9.4.8
(9-12) [t0,t1]
:
2v
1 z&
rel
P = xy2 Pz ( S z )
+
xy 2 z

f xt , yt (0) =

f A (

A
2

t1
f xt , yt ( (0, 0) ) dt
t
0

) f ( ) f (
C

C
2

A
2

cos sin Dx ( t ) ) f C ( sin + cos Dy ( t ) ) d d .


C
2

2A , 2C

______________________

A
2

C
2

A
2

C
2

(9-17)

10

1.

Aldous, D., Probability Approximations via the Poisson Clumping Heuristic, Volume 77 of Applied Mathematical
Sciences, Springer Verlag, 1989.

2.

Anderson, D., A General Distance-Based Collision Risk Model Based on Reliability Theory, SASP-WG/WHL/4WP/9.

3.

Bakker, G. J. and H. Blom, Air Traffic Collision Risk Modelling, Proceedings of the 32nd IEEE Conference on
Decision and Control, San Antonio, Texas, December 1993.

4.

Billingsley, P., Probability and Measure, Wiley Series in Probability and Mathematical Statistics, Third
Edition, 1995.

5.

Dacre, M., Estimating Collision Risk for UK RVSM, SASP-WG/WHL/1-WP/24.

6.

Embrechts, P., C. Klppelberg, and T. Mikosch, Modelling Extremal Events for Insurance and Finance, Springer,
1997.

7.

Flax, B., Navigational Requirements for the Implementation of 50-NM Route Spacing in Oceanic Airspace,
RGCSP-WG/A/17-WP/4.

8.

,
(Doc 9689), 1988.

9.

, 300 (1000 )
290 410 (Doc 9574), 2002.

10.

Leadbetter, M.R., G. Lindgren, and H. Rootzen, Extremes and Related Properties of Random Sequences of
Processes, Springer, April 1983.

11.

North Atlantic MNPS Risk Quick Reference Guide, NAT SPG, June 2006.

12.

Papoulis, A., Probability, Random Variables and Stochastic Processes, McGraw-Hill.

13.

Reich, P.G., Analysis of Long Range Air Traffic Systems-Separation Standards I to III, Journal of Navigation,
1966.

63