PSYC355 Unit1.

Hypothesistesting&inferential statistics
Testifmeanofgroupisdifferent Goal:_____________________behaviorbasedon priorobservations Whyneedstatistics?Commonerrors Naivebeliefif_____________,_______________ Believedifferenceexists,butitreallydoesnot Peoplebelievethedifferenceis_____________ ___________________ Unitexaminest tests:determineifagroupmeanis _____________differentfromacomparisonvalue Specialdefinition

t tests&hypothesistesting
Initialfocus
Howdetermine ifonegroupis different? Compareto matchedgroup orthemselves Pairedsamples t test Compareto independent group Independent samplest test

Compareto known populationvalue Onesampleor singlesample t test

Testsbasedont distribution
Individual SD = 106.16 Distributionofmeans SD ofmeans(sM )= Standarderrorofmean (SEM) Empiricalestimatew/ multiplesample ___________estimate

SD = SEM= 19.48

Section means

Works!19.38 19.48

WhatistheSEM forALL Y1213sections M =823.66,SD =106.16&N =143

A. B. C. D. 2.16 8.88 SameM&SD 19.38 106.16
DifferentN

Testsbasedont distribution
Symmetric,bellshapeddistribution of______ Shapedependson_____________________ df =N 1foronesamplet Samplesizeincreases ________shape

TableB.2 Thetdistributions(pageB4)
1. t scores(absolutevalues)markingextremearea 2. df =N1 3. +2.262&2.262markoffextremep=.05ifdf =9

1 2
Wewillnotneedto usethisportionof TableB.2

3.Critical values

Groupmeanwill differnexttime
95%ConfidenceIntervalofmean
ALL20123sections 1. Calculatesummarystatistics M =823.66,SD =106.16,N =143 2. Lookup2tailedtstatisticsdefine middle95%=extreme100 95% Uselargesttabledf problemdf Thisproblemdf =142,usetabledf =120 1.980

Groupmeanwill differnexttime
95%ConfidenceIntervalofmean
3. CalculateSEM Previousslide:SEM=8.88 4. Convertt statisticsintorawmeans

5. Thereisa95%chancethatM ofanentireyearof355 scores willfallbetween806.08&841.24( 35.2)

95%CIofM forone30personsection? M =823.66,SD =106.16,N =30

A. MLOWER =806,MUPPER =841 B. MLOWER =816,MUPPER =831 C. MLOWER =784,MUPPER =863 Accuracypredicting futureaverage ________ withsmallersamplesizes ___________ ___________ ___________

Testsbasedont distribution
z score:scoreofonepersonvs.mean (sizeofindividualdifferenceinSD units)

t score:Mofonegroupvs.comparisonmean (sizeofmeandifferenceinSEM units) SEMismuch ______unit!

Simplesamplet:Sixsteps usingSPSS
1. Identifypopulation, distribution, assumptions
Sample:201213PSYC355students Datasetusedinpriorlectures! Comparison:StudentsallPSYCcourses(S2010)

Simplesamplet:Sixsteps usingSPSS
2. Statenull&researchhypothesis
Null:MSAMPLE =MCOMPARE Research:MSAMPLE MCOMPARE Thisisanondirectional,2tailedhypothesis Extreme areas
MCOMPARE MSAMPLE MSAMPLE

RejectNull, AcceptResearch ifMSAMPLE in extremearea

Simplesamplet:SixstepsusingSPSS
3. Determinestatisticsforsampleand comparison
SPSStocalculatesamplestatistics(alreadydone) PriorinformationforMCOMPARE =826

4. Selectcritical(alpha)value
1. Select level(proportioninextremeareas) 2. Commonvaluesare =.01or =.05

5. CalculateteststatisticwithSPSS 6. Makeadecision

DoitwithSPSS 3.Calculatesamplestatistics
Resultsfrompriorlecture Technically, t testvalidonlyif symmetricdata,butthisdata negativelyskewed Inpractice,_________statOK with___________________ dataifN ______ Okay with N = 143 Optional SPSSwill redolater

Studyit

DoitwithSPSS 5.Calculateteststatistic
2. 4.OneSampleTtest

1.Opendatasetused inpriorlectures

DoitwithSPSS 5.Calculateteststatistic

1.Movevariable 3.OK 2.Entercomparisonmean (826thisproblem)

DoitwithSPSS 5.Calculateteststatistic

Summarystatistics(redo) ComparisonM CheckIT! t

df N1

pinextremearea

Makeadecision
Lower Extreme
MCOMPARE

Upper Extreme

SPSScalculates_____extremeareaforsamplemean Acceptnullif_________> (.05forthisproblem) Rejectnull&acceptresearchhypothesisif ____________

Shouldyourejectnull&accept researchhypothesis
A. Yes B. No C. Canttell

CalculatetheSIZE ofdifference

t statisticusesSEM asunitofcomparison,but d statisticuses_________ ofindividualscoresasunit

Why:matcheswaypeoplethinkaboutscores!

Sample&comparisonmeansareonly.02SDs apart

WhatdoesCohend tellus?
Population
3 2 1 + 1 + 2 + 3

Table81 Cohensconventionfor effectsizes:d

Sample
3 2 1 + 1 + 2 + 3

Effect size Small Medium Large

d 0.2 .5 .8

Overlapofdistributions=85% __________________________________________

WhatdoesCohend tellus?
Population
3 2 1 + 1 + 2 + 3

Table81 Cohensconventionfor effectsizes:d

Sample
3 2 1 + 1 + 2 + 3

Effect size Small Medium Large

d 0.2 .5 .8

Overlapofdistributions=67%

WhatdoesCohend tellus?
Population
3 2 1 + 1 + 2 + 3

Table81 Cohensconventionfor effectsizes:d

Sample
3 2 1 + 1 + 2 + 3

Effect size Small Medium Large

d 0.2 .5 .8

Overlapofdistributions=53% ______________________________________________ ______________________________________________

Makeadecision Document:Statisticalstatement

t(142)=.264,ns,d=.02 Sig
Noteitalicsfort, ns,p,&dall statisticalsymbols > .000

Youwrite ns p =Sigvalue p <.001

Makeadecision Document:Englishstatement

Themeanfinalscoreofthe201213PSYC355 students(M =823.66,SD =106.16,N =143)is notsignificantlydifferentfromthemeanscore of826inallpsychology classes

Englishstatementmustinclude!
Themeanfinalscoreofthe201213PSYC355 students(M =823.66,SD =106.16,N =143)is notsignificantlydifferentfromthemeanscore of826inallpsychology classes Mustinclude
Describewhatscore/variablemeasures Describethesample Includesummarystatistics Stateiforifnotsignificantlydifferent Describecomparisonvalue Describethecomparisongroup

Youdoit!
RedothisanalysiscomparingentiresampletoONLY upperlevelPSYCcourses,MCOMPARE=839 HigherbecauseInternshipgrades&noFreshmen Notethatsamplestatisticsdonotchange Dofollowing Use2tailedtestwith =.05 CalculateCohend Calculatet statistic Writestatistical WriteEnglish

WhatisthevalueofCohensd?
A. B. C. D. .08 .14 .23 .51

Isthedifferencesignificant? Didyourejectthenullhypothesis?
A. Yes B. No C. Idontknow

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Whatiscorrectstatisticalstatement?
A. B. C. D. t(142)=1.728,p=.086 t(142)=1.728,ns t(142)=1.728,ns,d =.14 t(142)=1.728,ns,d=.14

Whatismissing?
A. Summarystatistics B. Descriptionofsample C. Descriptioncomparisongroup D. Statementifsignificant MeanfinalPSYC355score(M =823.66, SD =106.16,N =143)isnotsignificantly differentfromthemeanscoreof839inall upperlevelpsychology classes
Mustcheckhomeworkagainstlistonpreviousslide

2tailedformatsforreportingresults
Statistical(UnderlineditemscopiedfromSPSSor calculated) Significant:t(df)=tstatistic,p =Sig,d =effectsize Replacep =Sig withp <.001ifSig=.000 Notsignificant:t(df)=tstatistic,ns,d =effectsize English Describewhatscore/variablemeasures Describethesample Includesummarystatistics Stateiforifnotsignificantlydifferent Optional:mentiondirection Describethecomparisonvalue Describethecomparisongroup

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Homework#45 20points
Practicedoingtwotailedonesamplet tests 2separateproblems,foreach read instructions carefullytoavoidomittingkey information Datawillbeinanexcelfile,copydatavalues toSPSS SubmitpapercopyofWorddocument
CopyandpastetoWord

50%penaltyifturnedafterstartofnextclass

Canstatisticaldecisionsbewrong? Truth StatisticalDecisions

StatisticalDecision
AcceptNull Accept (notsig.) Research (Sig.diff.)

____
TypeI:set to lowvalue(e.g., .05,.01)to minimize TypeII:increase power oftestto minimize

Truth

Null Hypothesis Research Hypothesis

HIT
_____ p =___

_____ p =___

HIT

Increasestatisticalpoweroftest

Twogoodapproaches Increasesizeof______________ IncreaseimpactofIV(e.g.,largerdrugdosage) Decreasesizeof_____________ IncreaseN Increasereliability ofDV decreaseSD Onebadapproach ____________________
pages186189

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Dangerousallureofonetailedtests
Twotailed Null MSAMPLE =MCOMPARE Research MSAMPLE __ MCOMPARE Predictscoresof355 studentsare_______ _______scoresof studentsinallupper levelPSYCcourses Onetailed Null MSAMPLE =MCOMPARE Research MSAMPLE __ MCOMPARE Predictscoresof355 studentsare_____ ____scoresof studentsinallupper levelPSYCcourses

Dangerousallureofonetailedtests
Testifsamplemeanis
A:Samplemean____________ B:Samplemean____________

Keywords:__________________ ___________________________ ___________________________ Significantifandonlyif

Predicteddirectionhappens,& M fallsinarea ofdistribution fartherawayfromsamplemean Entirearea iseitheraboveor belowcomparisonmean

Howdoyoudo1tailedtest?
1. Makeresearchhypothesisdirectional! 2. DoSPSSanalysisexactlysameasfor2tailed 3. Changedecisionrule.Rejectnull&acceptresearch hypothesisifandonlyif A. Resultisinpredicteddirection B. OnehalfofSig.value 4. Instatisticalstatement A. UsevalueofSig B. Add(onetailed) 5. InEnglish,adddirectionofresult

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DecisionRules:1vs.2tailed
TwotailedRule
1.Sig? Yes p=Sig.or p<.001 No ns Yes p=Sig/2(onetailed)or p<.001 (onetailed)

OnetailedRule
1.Predicted Direction? Yes 2.Sig/2 ? No ns (onetailed) No ns (onetailed)

1tailedtestwithlastinclassproblem PredictMSample <MCompare

t(142)=1.728,________________________d =.14 Themeanfinalscoreofthe201213PSYC355 students(M =823.66,SD =106.16,N =143)is _______________________fromthemeanscoreof 839inallpsychologyclasses ___________________________________________

Statisticalformats:1vs.2tailed
2tailed Significant:t(df)=tstatistic,p =Sig,d =effectsize Replacep =Sig w/p <.001ifSig=.000 Notsignificant:t(df)=tstatistic,ns,d =effectsize 1tailed Significant: t(df)=tstatistic,p =Sig/2 (onetailed)d =effectsize Replacep=Sig/2 w/p<.001ifSig=.000 Notsignificant t(df)=tstatistic,ns(onetailed),d =effectsize UnderlineditemscopiedfromSPSSorcalculated

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Isthisa2tailedor1tailedtest?
A. 2tailed B. 1tailed

t(142)=3.791,p <.001,d=.32

Englishformats:1vs.2tailed
2tailed
Describewhatscore/variablemeasures Describethesample Includesummarystatistics Stateiforifnotsignificantlydifferent Optional:mentiondirection Describethecomparisonvalue Describecomparisongroup

1tailed:sameas2tailedexcept
Stateiforifnotsignificantlydifferent <include predicteddirection>

Homework#6 10points
Youwilldoaonesample1tailedtestwith newdata Remembertousea2stepdecisionrule!

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