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VOX POPULI

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2013

303.425.6(73)
60.5
61

61

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.: , 2013. 72 .

ISBN 978-5-906345-01-1


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303.425.6(73)
60.5

ISBN 978-5-906345-01-1

. . , 2013

Vox populi, 2013


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1. 2012 . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6
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17891824 : . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 24
18251915 : . . . 26
19161932 : Literary Digest . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 29
5. 1936 ? . . . . . . . . . . 32
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(Nate Silver,
1978 . .).


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The Slates: , , ,
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New York Times
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(7 ) New York :
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[8].
(Richard
Thaler, 1945 . .), .
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[.: 9].
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Messina, 1969 . .), , ,
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1. 2012

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[11].
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(Joel Benenson, 1952 . .),


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( ), , The Literary Digest.

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[13].
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The Literary Digest. , ,

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(Jan Werner) (Dominic Lusinchi), 80- ,


[.: 14].


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Google , XIX .
,
, , , . ,
, The Age, The Pittsburgh Press, The Milwaukee Journal
1936 ,
(American Institute of Public Opinion),
, The Literary Digest.

2.

The Mary and John, 1630 ,
(Roger Ludlow,
15901666). , .
, 1634
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1870 , ,
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[19, . 276]. , .
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[.: 26]. , , ,
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(1922 ) [.: 27], .
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[27, . 75]. , . ,

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. XIX ,
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19

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(Harlow Gale, 18621945) ,
. 1881 ,
. 1890 ,
(Wilhelm Wundt, 18321920) (Gustav Fechner,
18011887). ,
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1890- ,
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(Walter Scott, 18691955), ,
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18621951), ;
{2}
XIX XX
(Northwestern University), .
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(Albert Lasker, 18801952) , . ,

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(Claude Hopkins, 18661932), ,

Palmolive.
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(Bruce Barton, 18861967);
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{4}
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1925 The Man Nobody Knows: A Discovery of the Real
Jesus (, : ),
, .
750 .

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1920 ,
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1923 , ,
.
54 % ,
29 % ( , 17 % ). 1927
1928 .

4.
1936 , ,
, -

4.

23

.

.
(straw polls).
New Political Dictionary ( ), , ,
(John Selden, 15841654). :
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1866 Cleveland Leader : ,
, [29].
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, -
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(Kathleen Frankovic, 1947 . .) , 1824 American Watchman and
Delaware Advertiser:
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, [30].
XIX .
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.

17891824 :
35 ,
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, : , : 25 1690 Public Occurrences, ,
- ,
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[.: 31].
, .
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Public Occurrences
, 1845 . 1990 , 300- ,
Publick Occurrences Award,
16 .
XVII XVIII (poll
books, poll lists, polls) , (, , ) ,

4.

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Smith), ,
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, , . 24 1824
Harrisburg Pennsylvanian (Wilmington), ,
(335 ),
(169 ) .
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: 4256
(3428), (470). ,
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( 153 ), (115,7),

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1824 :
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(, - ); , ; ,
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1824 (proto-straw
polls).
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1936 ,
[32, . 30]. ,
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1824
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18251915 :

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27

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1824 , .
(Samuel Kernell, 1942 . .) 1828 ,
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[.: 33].
1824 , , :
, , , . 1828
, .
1828 .
1828
.
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, 1828
U. S. Telegraph, : 7150 .
4143 , 131 049 .
52,7 % , 51,5 %.
.
.
XIX
(Susan Herbst, 1963 . .),
1990- . , -
, 1820- ,
[.: 34, . 76]. (peoples, citizens, polls)

, .

28

XIX , . , 1883
, (Charles
H. Taylor, 18461921), Boston Globe,
.

[.: 16, . 35]. 1896
, (William
McKinley) (William J. Bryan). Chicago Record 60 .
12
. .
, .
New York Herald. 1900 ,
,
.

.
1904 New York Herald Tribune 30 -.
1908 New York Herald, Cincinnati Enquirer, Chicago Record-Herald
St. Louis Republic
. New York Herald
Boston Globe Los Angeles Times ( ,
) 37 , 1916 36 .

. 1916
, ,
. 1924 43 , 1928- 46-,
.

(Claude Robinson, 19001961), 1928 85 . 75
: , -

4.

29

. : Columbus Dispatch, Cincinnati Enquirer,


Chicago Tribune New York Daily News ,
. , The Literary Digest, Hearst Newspapers, Farm Journal,
Pathfinder, Nation College Humor ,
Farm Journal Pathfinder [.: 35, . 5051].

19161932 : Literary Digest


XX ,
. The Literary Digest,
.

The Digest,
.
The Digest , ,
, , ,
. , The 99Literary Digest , -
, .
The Digest (Isaac Funk, 18391912).
,
. 1870-
, .
1891 , (Adam Wagnalls, 18431924), Funk
& Wagnalls. , Britannica (), The Encyclopedia of
Social Reform ( ), The Standard Dictionary of the English Language
( ).
.
The Literary Digest 1890 ; 10 . -

30

.
, 200
, .
1890 ;
60 . ,
, 1920-
The Digest ,
. 1926
1934 25 1
[.: 16, . 63]. 1930 2 .
(Wilfred Funk, 18831965), ,
, Funk & Wagnalls,
, , 1925- 1940 .
, , The Digest 1916 .
? , ,
. .
. , 1925 . .

. . 1895
The Digest
. , ,
-,
.

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, , , , . . 1895 350 , 1900-
685 , 1932 20 .
, 1922 73 % ,
.
1916
, , -, - ,
:
- . . . 1912 -

4.

31

. (81,9 % 16,6 %), ,


1916 , . The
Digest , (49,2 % )
(46,1 %).
1920 , ,
, 11 .
, 1920 ,
. , , ,
:
(Warren Harding, 18651923) 60,3 % 404
(James Cox, 18701957)
34,1 % 127 .
1924 16,5 : . (Calvin Coolidge 18721933)
54 % 382 , (John
Davis, 18731955) (28,8 % 136).
5 % .
1928 The Digest 18
: . (63,2 %). (58,2 %),
.
, 1924
, .
.
3 1932 : .
. ,
. : The Digest
,
1924 1928 [36].
The Literary
Digest, 1930 (Walter Willcox, 1861
1964), , ( 9,1 %
1922 23,8 % 1930-) . .
1932 .
5 1932 , 55,99 %
474 .
: 57,4 % 472 .

32

5.
1936 ?

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1936 .

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, - .


,
,
(Charles Parlin, 18721942).
1911 Ladies Home
Journal Saturday Evening Post 60 %
.
, .

5. 1936 ?

33

;
.



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: 38 ,
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. {5}
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1912 .
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50 .
.
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. 26
40 . 1978
: 19141918 . ,
, ,

. .
1945 The American Marketing Association
;
. ,
. 1965
.

34

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1916 ,
, . Digest,
, ,
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1855 ;
.
(Daniel Starch, 18831979)
.
. 1899 -

5. 1936 ?

35

- (Sioux City)
19 : .
, 1903
:
. 1906 .
1925 Starch and Staff, , . : 1925 . ,
, ,
.
National Broadcasting Company .
, , ; ,
1926 1927 .
, 19 .
1928 1929
1930 . 1930
. ,
[37, . 191192]
, . ,
,
.
The Literary Digest.
1924 40 ,
,
, . ,
,

? . ,
?
, , ,
1920 1924
.
,
;
, -

36

,
,
1935 .
, . ,
,
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, ,
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, (Edward Strong, Jr., 18841963) ,
, .
.
, ,
,

.
, ,
;
1630 . . ,
, ;
:
(James Cattell, 18601944), (Edward Thorndike, 1874
1949) (Robert Woodworth, 18691962). .
, . 1922 ,
(Harold Lasswell, 19021978),
Control of Propaganda as a Psychological Problem ( ),

.

5. 1936 ?

37

,
The Psychology of Selling and Advertising ( ) , ,

. 1920-
, .
1930- - , .
.
, ,
.


(Henry Link, 18891952) , .
. .

, ,

.
1932
The New Psychology of Selling and Advertising (
), ,
, . ,
, 1930- ,
1930-
.
1932 , (Psychological
Barometer). 15

38

, 1578 ,
1934 . 1947
80 ,
570 .
. 125
.
1930- 1940- , : , .
Public Opinion
Quarterly.
1938 Time
, .
,
1930- 1950- . , ,
- .
, , ,
,
, 19201930- .
?
1932 ,
, ,
? , , ?
: .


,
, ,
. (Emil Hurja, 18921953)
,
,

5. 1936 ?

39

,

[.: 38].

.
1920-,

1930- .

,
, {7}
, :
.
- (Crystal Falls), ,
. 1909
, .
; 1913
(University of Washington), .
,
,
. ,
. , ,
,
. ,
.
, ,
,
[.: 38, . 41].
1920- , . 1928 1929
,
,
, . 1932

40

.
(James Farley, 18881976),
.
,
,
,
,
.
, 1932 ,
, ,
1928 The Literary Digest
(New York Herald, Cincinnati Enquirer, Chicago Tribune .),
1928
1930 . , ,
.
, ,
,
.
, [38, . 53]. . , 7,5 ,
7,2 .
.
, .
1935 ,
,
.
1936 .
, The Literary Digest , .
, -
. .
, , , , , . .
.

5. 1936 ?

41

;
, .
; , 13
. 174 ,
. ,
. , ( 61 %) ,
.

, 1936 , 1940-
.
, ,
. -,
, ,

. -, , 1930-
,
, .

-
-.
(Samuel Hayes, Jr., 19102002), .


1950-.
,
. : .

-. {8}

42

. ,
. , 1932 [39].

, , . ,
-. (Samuel Hayes, 18741958), . -. 1926
. ,
. (Willard Thorp,
18991992), , ,
.
-. ,
.
, (Roswell Angier,
18741946), .
-. ,
, , 1950-
, . 1957
(Rensis Likert, 19031981) .
,
13-
.
, , 1920- 1930-
, ,
.

. , , , .

6. :
,
1929
,

6. : ,

43

.
. , , , . ,

.

XIX , .
;

.
, XIXXX
.
.
:

. 1935
- (Archibald MacLeish, 18921982), Fortune
(. ), (James
Conant, 18931978), . - : !
. ,
- .
, , : .
, ,
. :
[.: 2, . 222].
1930- ,

.
, ; , ;
,
.
, , ,
, ,
,
.

44


, :


.
,
.
(George Gallup, 1901
1984) ,
, 3000 .
{9}
.

26 1919 1
1923 , . 1923
, . , .
, ,
, . 23 1928


. ,
,
, , , [.: 40, . 47].
,
, , . . .
, , , ;
.
1931 : , ,
? Colliers, Saturday Evening Post, Liberty The Literary
Digest, ,
, .

6. : ,

45

, 1932
. ,
[41, . 44].
1932 (Raymond Rubicam, 18921978), , Young &
Rubicam, .
, , .
Young & Rubicam, , -
, , .
,
, .
(. )
, , , , . .
, ,

, 1930-
, , .
1932 , (Viola (Ola) Miller, 18711937)
.
- , ,
, , ,
[42].
,
1936 ,
.
, 12 ,
(Alfred Landon, 18871987)
, The Literary Digest
, ,
, , . . ,
, .

46


, 1940- 1960- ,
(Elmo Roper, 19001971)
. , ,
. , ,
.
, ,
,
{10}
.
.
, 1630 .
(John Roper, 1587 1664),
.
(Hebron),
, , ,
(). .
19211928
(Creston), , -,
. ,
.
,
.
1933 Traub Manufacturing
Co.. ,
.
, .
1934 , (Paul Cherington, 18761943)
(Richardson Wood, 19031976) - Cherington, Roper and Wood.

6. : ,

47

, ,
.

Fortune, 1935 , ,

. . , .
, Fortune,
(Henry Luce, 18981967), .
1935 Fortune Survey , ,
.
1935 ,
. Fortune Survey
, 1920- ; .


(Archibald Crossley, 18961985)
, (Fieldsboro),
-. , , , 1916 1917 .
, 1950 .



. , , 1918 J. H. Cross
.
,
. c : .
?. :
, {11}
,

48

, .
19221926
The Literary Digest,
, .
1926
Crossley, Inc., The
Cooperative Analysis of Broadcasting (CAB),
.
, ,
.
. . 19351936
The Literary Digest,
.
The Literary Digest
, , . ,
, ,
. ,
, 1930-
,
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1936 .
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