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"Review of Economics and Statistics" "Journal of
Economic Perspectives". . 1991 .


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Macroeconomics

N.Gregory Mankiw

Harvard University

Worth Publishers


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1994

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1

Barsky R.A. and Miron J.A. The Seasonal Cycle and the Business
Cycle // Journal ofPolitical Economy 97 (June 1989), pp. 503-534.

1.

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2.

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, ""

Okun A.M. Potential GNP: Its Measurement and Significance //


Proceedings of the Business and Economics Statistics Section, American
Statistical Association (Washington, D.C.: American Statistical Association,
1962), 98-103, reprinted in Okun A.M. Economics for Policymaking (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1983), 145-158.

2.

87


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3.

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108

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3.

109

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1927 . , ,
1949 1966 ., ,

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.

.

Cippola CM. Before the Industrial Revolution: European Society and


Economy, 1000 - 1700, 2d ed. (New York: Norton, 1980, pp. 200-202).

3.

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. :
= = OtY
= M P L x L = (1 - a ) Y ,
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,

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z z
- Z,

1

^ "" = F(K, L).

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112

2.


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a

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= aAK^'L 1 "".
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= Y/K.
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3.

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1948 1989 . ,
, 2 3. , 0,3.
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.
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,
1946 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990

- -
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)

8 -

114

2.

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3.

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3.

121



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2.

122

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= C(Y - ),
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, = .

3.

123


, .
,
,
- .

. 3-1, ,
:
Y = F(K, L) = Y.
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,
Y = C(Y - ) + I(r) + G.
G
, Y

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.
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.

124

2.

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, ; ,
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/
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,
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.

,
:

3.

125

Y - C(Y - ) - G = 1().
G .
, a Y
:
Y = C(Y - ) - G = 1()
S = 1().
,
Y G
. Y, G S
. ,
.
. 3-9
. -
,
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.
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126

2.

.
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3.

127

AG.

, - . Y-T , .


.
, . ,

. ,
.
,

-
, . ,
-
S = +
= (Y - - C(Y - )) + ( - G).
= Y - (? - ) -G.
G , .. .
.
. 3-10,
,
.
. ,
.

128

2.

,
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. ,
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,

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, , ,

3-4

1730-1920 .
- , ,
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.
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.

, . . 3-11
1730
1919 ., .

.
,
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3.

129

,

.

: , ,
.. ,
1701 -1918 .
// Journal of Monetary Economics 20 (. 1987): 221-248.

3-11 .
1730 1919
,
, , (
,
)

. 3-11
, .
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1

9 -

130

2.

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AT,
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,

Benjamin K.D., Kohin L.A. War, Prices and Interest Rates in A


Retrospective on the Classical Gold Standard, 1821-1931. (Chicago, University
of Chicago Press, 1984), pp. 587-612.; Barro R.J. Government Spending,
Interest Rates, Prices, and Budget Deficits in the United Kingdom, 1701-1918
// Journal of Monetary Economics, Vol. 20, 1987, Sept. PP. 221-248.

3.

131

, .

, .
,
& AT. - Y - - G,
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. 3-10,
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1981 . 1980 . ,

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132

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: Solow R. A Contribution to the Theory
of Economic Growth // Quarterly Journal of Economics, 1956, February,
pp. 65-94.

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: 1985 .

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: Summers R., Heston A. A New Set of International Comparisons


of Real Product and Price Levels: Estimates for 130 Countries // The Review
of Income and Wealth, 1988, March, pp. 1-25.
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1960-1985 ., )

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1985
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,

: Summers R. and Heston F. A New Set of International


Comparison of Real Product and Price Levels:Estimates for 130 Countries //
The Review of Income and Wealth, 1988, March, pp. 1-25.

158

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Phelps E. The Golden Rule of Accumulation: A Fable for Growthmen //


American Economic Review, 1961, vol. 51, September, pp. 638-643.

160

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176

2.

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4.

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178

2.

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4.

179

, ,
.

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(n+g)
(-).
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, :
1. 2,5 .
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.
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180

2.

,
.
,
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.


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, ,
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.8

, .: Feldstein M.S.,
Social Security, Induced Retirement and Aggregate Capital Accumulation //
Journal of Political Economy 82 (September/October 1974), pp. 905-926;
Leimer D.R. and Lesnoy S.D. Social Security and Private Saving: New Time
Series Evidence // Journal of Political Economy 90 (June 1982), pp. 606-629;
and Feldstein M.S. Social Security and Private Saving: Reply // Journal of
Political Economy 90 (June 1982), pp. 630-642.

182

2.


,
.
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; . ,
.
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4-6


, 20 - ,
1970- . 4-5
.
2,2% 1,7%.
.
,

. ,
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.
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4.

183

1% , 1970 .
: 1%-

20% , .

4.5


(% )

1948-1972
1972-1988

2,9
2,6

4,3
2,1

5,7
2,2

1
4,9 ^
2,8

8,2
.

3,3

2,4
2,1

2,2
1,7
MaddisonA Phases of Capitalist Development (Oxford Oxford University
Press,1982), International Financial Statistics


. .
.
, 70- ., ,
, .
(,
) .
(
).
1970- ., - , .
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184

2.
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- .
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.
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.

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10
.

.:
Symposium: The Slowdown in Productivity Growth // The Journal of Economic
Perspectives 2 (Fall 1988): 3-98.
.

,
.
. 2 3 Blanchard O.J., Fisher S. Lectures on Macroeconomics

4.

185

.

, ,

11 . , ,
.
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;
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13.
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11

Barro R.J., Becker G.S. Fertility Choice in a Model of Economic Growth


// Econometrica (March 1989), pp. 481-502.
Lucas R. Jr. On the Mechanics of Economic Development // Journal of
Monetary Economics 22, (1988), pp.3-42; Mankiw G., Romer D., and Weil D.
A Contribution to the Empirics of Economic Growth // Quarterly Journal of
Economics, forthcoming.
Romer P. Crazy Explanations for the Productivity Slowdown // NBER
Macroeconomics Annual 2 (1987), pp. 163-201.

186

2.
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188

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192

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Solow R.M. Technical Change and the Aggregate Production Function


// Review of Economics and Statistics 39 (1957), pp. 312-320. ,
. , / =(1 - )/, -
.

4.

197

, 1950 .
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:

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201

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,
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s - , .. ,
, f - , .. ,
. , ,
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, ..
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.

Hall R.E. A Theory of the Natural Rate of Unemployment and the


Duration of Unemployment // Journal of Monetary Economics, 5 (April 1979),
pp. 153-169.

2.

202

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208

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Benjamin D., Kochin L. Searching for an Explanation of Unemployment


in Interwar Britain // Journal of Political Economy 87 (June 1979), pp.
441-478. .:
Journal of Political Economy 90 (April 1982), pp. 369-436.
Katz F.L., Meyer B.D. Unemployment Insurance, Recall Expectations and

5.

209

.5-3. . ,
,
,
,
.
-
,

Katz F L , Meyer D Unemployment Insurance, Recall Expectations and
Unemployment Outcomes // Quarterly Journal of Economics 105 (November 1990), pp 9731002


,
1985 .
500 .

Unemployment Outcomes // Quarterly Journal of Economics 105 (November


1990), pp. 973-1002.
14

210

2.

, 11 .

, . ,
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5-3.
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.

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.--,,

Woodbury S.A., Spiegelman R.G. Bonuses to Workers and Employers to


Reduce Unemployment: Randomized Trials in Illinois // American Economic
Review 77 (September 1987), pp. 513-530.

5.

211


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.

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212

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5.

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.

1990 .
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5-3


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. ,
. , 1988 .
3,35 . , , (9044 .), 52 .
,
. -,
, -,
, .
- , . 5 , , 25%,

Brown . Minimum Wage Laws: Are They Overrated? // Journal of


Economic Perspectives 2 (Summer 1988), pp. 133-146.

214

2.

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,
.
-

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.

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, .


-
.
. ,
.

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. 1985 .
, 10
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1,2 .
Summers L.H. Why Is the Unemployment Rate So Very High Near
Full Employment? // Brookings Papers on Economic Activity no.2 (1986),
pp. 339-383

5.

215


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216

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60- .
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. 60- .
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, ,
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,
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30%
. ,
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.

.
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. -,
,
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,

Bruno M., Sachs J. Economics of Worldwide Stagflation (Cambridge,


Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1985).

5.

217


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Grubel H.G. Drifting Apart: Canadian and U.S. Labor Markets //


Contemporary Policy Issues 6 (January 1988), pp. 39-55, .: Journal of
Economic and Monetary Affairs 2 (Winter 1988), pp. 59-75.

218

2.

-
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5.

219

5-5


*
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, , . ,
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" , 75%, . ,
,
, : " ,

. ,
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, , , " 1 0 .

Efficiency Wage Models of Unemployment // American Economic Review


Papers and Proceedings (May, 1984), pp. 200-205; Katz L. Efficiency Wages:
A Partial Evaluation // NBER Macroeconomics Annual (1986), pp. 235-276.
10

Bulow J., Summers L. A Theory of Dual Labor Markets With Application to Industrial Policy, Discrimination, and Keynesian Unemployment //
Journal of Labor Economics 4 (July 1986), pp. 376-414; Raff D., Summers L. Did
Henry Ford Pay Efficiency Wages? // Journal of Labor Economics 5 (October
1987, Part 2), S57-S86.

220

2.

5-4.
,
, ,
, .

, .
,
? ,
, . ,
, ,
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5.

221

11 .
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-
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, , - 24
36 , 67% ,
. , -
,
, .

.
,
,

.
, ,
,
.
, ,
.

Clark ., Summers L. Labor Market Dynamics and Unemployment.


A Reconsideration // Brookmgs Papers on Economic Activity no.l (1979),
pp. 13-72

2.

222


. 5-1
,
1985 .,
7,2%.
5-1

1985.

()

()

()

()

16-17

19.2%

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18-19

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5.

223

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40
. .5-5,
4,4% 50- ., 4,7% - 60- ., 6,1% -
70- . 7,3% 80-. , .

.
,
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,

.

224

2.

.
1960 . 33% ,
1980 . - 43%. ,
( ),

.
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.


-

,
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.

1950- 1960- 1970- 1980-


: .


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5.

225


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1

Murphy K.M., Topel R.H. The Evolution of Unemployment in the United


States: 1968-1985 // NBER Macroeconomics Annual (1987), pp. 11-68.
Lilien D.M. Sectoral Shifts and Cyclical Unemployment // Journal of
Political Economy 90 (August 1982), pp. 777-793.
15-

226

2.

, .

1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990
: .
.5-6. : .
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Times 40 , - 96 000 .,
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232

2.

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Economica (November 1945), pp. 189-201.
. 80- .

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Angell N. The Story of Money (New York: Frederick A.Stokes Company,


1929) 88-89.

240

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246

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6.

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248

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250

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, , 100,
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+ ( () (Y)) 100%.
- . .
v

6.

251

. . 6-1

,
. 6-1.
, 1870 .


( )

(2) , - ( )


,

: 60-
Friedman M , Schwartz A A Monetary History of The United States, 1867-1960 (Princeton,
N J Princeton University Press, 1963), Friedman M , Schwartz A Monetary Trends in the
United States and the United Kingdom Their Relation to Income, Prices, and Interest Rates,
1867-1975 (Chicago University of Chicago Press, 1982)

70- . XIX .,
.
.
, , ,
-
.
, ,

Friedman M., Schwartz A.J. A Monetary History of I n e United States,


1867-1960 (Princeton, N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1963); Friedman M,
Schwartz A.J. Monetary Trends in the United States and the United Kingdom:
Their Relation to Income, Prices and Interest Rates, 1867-1975 (Chicago:
University of Chicago Press, 1982).
,

252

2.

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8.

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6.

253

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: 3%
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< 4


,
. 1775 .
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1776 . 19 , 1777 . - 13 , 1778 63,4 124,8 . 1779 .
,
. , ,
100 .
.
" " 8 , , - .

Fischer S. Seigniorage and the Case for a National Money // Journal of


Political Economy 90 (April 1982), pp. 295-313.
Q

.: "not worth a continentaf. - . .

*>

254

2.

6-4.

.
.

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,
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6.

255



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.
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1+7

256

2.

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6-5


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Barsky R.B. The Fisher Effect and the Forecastability and Persistence
of Inflation // Journal of Monetary Economics 19 (January 1987), pp. 3-24.

260

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Sargent T J The End of Four Big Inflations // Robert HaJl(ed ) Inflation


(Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1983), pp. 41-98; Dornbusch R ,
Fisher S Stopping Hyperinflations- Past and Present // Weltwirtschaftlich.es

6.

26

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Mussa M. Sticky Individual Prices and the


Dynamics of the General Price Level // Carnegie-Rotchester Conference on
Public Policy 15 (Autumn 1981), pp. 261-296.

6.

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., , . Blinder A. Hard Heads, Soft Hearts:


Tough-Minded Economics for a Just Society (Reading, Mass.: Addison Wesley,
1987).

6.

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Wall Street Journal, 13 , 1985, Dow Jones &
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272

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Littlefield H.M. The Wizard of Oz: Parable on Populism //American Quarterly
16 (Spring 1964), pp. 47-58; and Rockoff H. The Wizard of Oz as a Monetary
Allegory // Journal ofPolitical Economy 98 (August 1990), pp. 739-760.

6.

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. 1896-1910 . 35%.

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282

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309

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Blinder A.S. Why Are Prices Sticky? // American Economic Review


Papers and Proceedings, 81 (May 1991), pp. 89-96.
22*

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Cecchetti S.G. The Frequency of Price Adjustment: the Study of


Newsstand Prices of Magazines // Journal of Econometrics 31 (1986), pp.
255-274.
*
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8.

341

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6,
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80- ., .: Friedman M. Lessons on Monetary Policy
from the 1980s. // Journal of Economic Perspectives 2 (Summer 1988), pp. 5172; Poole W. Monetary Policy Lessons of Recent Inflation and Disinflation
// Journal of Economic Perspectives 2 (Summer 1988), pp. 73-100.
23'

356

3.

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. .
:


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1973
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1974
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1976
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1977
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8.

359

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1979
1980
1981
1982



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1980- .

. ,
, 70- 80-

1983
1984
1985
1986
1987



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!,

'

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9,5%
7,4%
7,1%
6,9%
6,1%

1986 .

,
5.

,
1970-
Hamilton J.D Oil and the Macroeconomy Since World War II // Journal of
Political Economy 91 (April 1983), pp 228-248.

360

3.

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364

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365

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LM. IS "" ""1. IS ,
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Liquidity (.) - ; money (.) - . - . .

366

3.
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,

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IS
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IS-LM
: Hicks J. Mr. Keynes and
the Classics: A Suggested Interpretation // Econometrica 5 (1937), pp.
147-159.

9. I

367


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368

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369

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372

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,
AY/AG - 1++++...

. -

9. I

373
4

:
AY/AG = 1/(1 - ).
,
0,6,
AY/AG = 1 + 0,6 + 0,6x0,6 + 0,6x0,6x0,6 + ... =
= 1/(1 - 0,6) = 2,5.
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. 2,5 5 .

.
.
z=l+x+x2+...
:
XZ=X+X 2 +X +...

:
z-xz=l.
,
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.

.

.
Y=C(Y-T)+I+G.
,
dY=C'dY+dG
'
,
dY/dG=l/(l-C).
, .

374

3.

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, Yj Y%- ,

.

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:
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9. I

375

0,6,

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1 . 1,50 6.
9-1

, 1964 .
1961 . ,

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Y=C(Y-T)+I+G.
,
dY=C'(dY-dT)
, dY/dT= - C'(l-C').
, .
1964 ., .: Okun A. Measuring the Impact of the 1964
Tax Reduction // Hellered W.W. ed. Perspectives on Economic Growth (New
York: Random House, 1968); Okun A.M. Economics for
Pohcymaking (Cambridge, Mass:MIT Press, 1983), pp. 405-423.

376

3.

,
.
5,3% 1964 . 6,0% 1965 . 5,7%
1963 . 5,2% 1964 . 4,5% 1965 .

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378

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379
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380

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9. I

381

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382

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9. I

383

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384

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9. I

385

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386

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387

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388

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9. I

389

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390

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391

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392

3.

MV-PY
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9. I

393

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394

3.

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9. I

395

: LM . ,
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9-3.:
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:
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396

3.

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.


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398

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400

3.

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AG. , ,
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. 10-1, IS
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10. II

401

. , .
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Yj Y 2 . a
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26 -

402

3.

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.
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IS .

Y^
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, LM
.
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(. . 10-3).
.
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10. II

403
. 10-3.
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LM .
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404

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10. II
.

405

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406

3.

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10. II

407

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.
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., 100 . 26 .
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.

10-1

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AY/AG AY/AT

1,93

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0,60

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:

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, .
: Eckstein . The DRI Model of the US Economy.(NY, 1983), p. 169.

IS-LM
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408

3.

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10. II

409

.
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*; ^

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410

3.

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.
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10. II

411

. -

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- .
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.
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412

3.

?
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,
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, . 9
IS LM , , , .
- + b(Y-T),
I - - dr,
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, IS :

LM:

10. II

413

= (e/f)Y - (l/f)M/P,
a, b, , d, e f - .
.
,
,
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IS LM :


Y. Y
:

z-f/[f+de/(l-b)], z
.

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), - (), .

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414

3.

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.
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10. II

415

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f , z ,
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:

416

3.

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Y. , LM

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.10-7
.

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10. II

417

( ) ,
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. 10-7. .
,
IS-LM . 10-7,
.10-7. Pj. .
, .
.

-,
, .
- IS LM:
Y = C(Y-T) + 1() + G
IS
/ =
L(r,Y).
LM
:
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27 -

418

3.

"" ,

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, IS
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,
Y = Y.
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?
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3 6 ,
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, IS-LM 1.

, .: Friedman M., Schwartz A. A


Monetary History of the United States, 1867-1960 (Princeton University

10. II

419

10-2

- - - - - -
- - -

1929
1930
1931
1932
1933
1934
1935
1936
1937
1938
1939
1940

3.2
8.9

16.3
24.1
25.2
22.0
20.3
17.0
14.3
19.1
17.2
14.6

203.6
183.5
169.5
144.2
141.5
154.3
169.5
193.2
203.2
192.9
209.4
227.2

139.6

40.4

22.0

5,9

26,6

50,6

130.4
126.1
114.8
112.8
118.1
125.5
138.4
143.1
140.2
148.2
155.7

27.4
16.8

24.3
25.4
24.2
23.3
26.6
27.0
31.8
30.8
33.9
35.2
36.4

3,6
2,7

25,8
54,1
21,1

1,7

9,9

1,0

21,9
25,9
29,6
30,9

49,3
44,8
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39,3
42,2
42,6
42,7
44,5
43,9
43,2
43,9

[-2,6

4.7
5.3
9.4

18.0
24.0
29.9
17.0
24.7
33.0

2,6

0,8
0,8
0,9
0,8

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0,6

34,2
59,7

0,6

- 0,1

1-9,3
2,2
7,4
0,9
0,2
4,2

1,3

1,6
1,6

52,6
52,3
54,5
52,5
50,7
51,8
60,8
62,9
69,5
^9,5
79,1
90,3

1: Historical Statistics of the United States, Colonial Times to 1970, Parts I and II,
, 1975, , O.K. - D9.
, , -
F3, F48, F52 F66 ( ., 1958 .). -
4-6- , 445. -
414 ( + , .). -
(1958 . 100), 1. - .

, 100% ( ., 1958 .).

,
, 10-2 -
, .
,
. ,
? IS? LM? - ?

Press, 1963); Temin P. Did Monetary Forces Cause the Great Depression? (NY,
1976); Brunner K.(ed.) The Great Depression Revisited (Boston, 1981).
27*

420

3.

: , IS
30- .
, , IS.
,

.
.
, IS
. ,
1929 .
, , -, .
. , 20- . , ""
, .

30- .:
.
, ,
. .

,
. 30- . , ,
,
, , , 2.

Bernanke . Non-Monetary Effects of the Financial Crisis in the


Propagation of the Great Depression // American Economic Review 73 (June

10. II

421

, - 30- .
IS. , . 1932 .
, ,
3.

: "
".
.
,
IS.
. ,
. ,

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: , LM
10-2 , 1929 1933 .
25%,
3,2 25,2%. ,
, 4.
,

1983), pp. 257-276.


3

Brown E.C. Fiscal Policy in the Thirties: A Reappraisal // American


Economic Review 46 (December 1956), pp. 857-879.

18 ( 18-1),
.

422

3.

. , .
IS-LM ,

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.

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.
1929 1931 .
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1933 ., ,
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1929-1931 .
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.
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10. II

423

.
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424

3.

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i - . , IS-LM :
e
Y=C(Y-T)+I(i-ir )+G
IS,
M/P-L(i,Y)
LM.

10. II

425

IS. , IS.
IS-LM ,
. , , . (ire=O),
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,
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Y2. i i 2 ,
2.
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ij ig), a
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426

3.

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10. II

427

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9 10, .

1. IS-LM .
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428

3.

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,
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IS LM -
.
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.
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1. ,
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.

10. II

429


1. , ,
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) : C=200+0,75x(Y-T).
: 1=200-25. 100. IS 0 8.
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1000, 2.
LM 0 8.
) Y.
) , 100 150.
IS?
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1200. LM?
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3. , .
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.
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.
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.
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? 80- .

430

3.

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C=C(Y-T).)

11


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. 9 10 IS-LM,
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432

3.

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433

11-1.

,
.
. ,
.
:
Y = Y + ( - ),

> ,

Y - , Y - ,
- , - .
, , .
, ; \/ -
.

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28 -

434

3.

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11.

435

,
,
,
,
..,
5.
,
W, w
.

W

"

,
,
. :
W/P =

(7)

, ,
.
,
;
28*

436

3.

,
.
, , ,
.
,
;
,
,
.
:
L = Ld(W/P),
.. ,
, . 11-1 .
:
Y = F(L),
,
(.. 11-1). . 11-1
.
, ,
.
, ,

. ,

Y = Y + ( - ).
,
1.
.

, .: Gray J. Wage
Indexation: A Macroeconomic Approach // Journal of Monetary Economics 2
(April 1976), pp. 221-235; Fisher S. Long-term Contracts, Rational Expectations, and the Optimal Money Supply Rule // Journal of Political Economy 85

11.
.

437

. 11-1.
. . 11-1
.
,
^ 2
W/PJL W/P2- ,
L< Lo- .
11-1
L< Lo Y^ Y. .11-1
,

. Pj
>2 Y^ Y-


,
, .
(February 1977), pp. 191-205.

138

3.

>
,

.
,
> .

> .
), , ,
) :
L d = Ld(W/P).
-:
L s = LW/P").
, .
W, .
, , ,
W,
.

""
: W/P
/*. ,
, , W/Pe
:
s
S
e
L - L (W/P x P/P ).

, ?$
1

'

>

11.

439

.

, ,
. 11-2. , ,
,
, . ,
, ,

, ..

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11-2.
:
. g

- [
, JE
'
fc
2
_
(

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, -

5


. . ,
.
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, .
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: , -

440

3.

.
.
, , , . /
- ,
. 11-3.
. ,
,
, ,

. 11-3.
: .


, ,
,

,

, . ,
, . ,
, , ,
, .

,
.

11.

441

,
:

Y = Y + ( - ).

2.
11-1

^ ---";/ \ , -^

' 's'\s* \ - .-"'4 :;-ii*#

(
)
.
,
, ,
. ,
:
,
. " ...", "

".
" ..." , ,
. . 11-4


1953 . ,
,
, , -.
,
.
, :

,
, :
Friedman M. The Role of Monetary Policy // American Economic Review 68
(March 1968), pp. 1-17.

442

3.


( )
11-4 .

( )

,
,

,

,
,


.
. ,
,
.

11.

443

,
. ,
,
,
. ,

,
3 .

- -

.

, .
.
,
,
.
,
.
, , -
, . -

.: Geary . , Kennan J. The
Employment-Real Wage Relationship: An International Study // Journal of
Political Economy 90 (August 1982), pp. 854-871; Bils M.J. Real Wages over
the Business Cycle: Evidence from Panel Data //Journal of Political Economy
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Phillips Curve/'/ Journal of Political Economy 97 (June 1989), pp. 706-720.

444

3.

.
.
, , ,
- .
, ,
, ,
,
.
,
.
,
, , ,
.
, , ,
. ,
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.
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,
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.
,
( ).
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)
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, , .
,

11.

445

, . , .
.
. ,
,
. .
.
, ,
,
, .
:

Y = Y + ( - ).
,

4.

- - ,

. .

,
.:
Lucas R.E., Jr. Understanding Business Cycles // Stabilization of the Domestic
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Policy (Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing Company, 1977); reprinted in
Lucas R.E., Jr. Studies in Business Cycle Theory (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT
Press, 1981). i , - . .
. .

446

3.

. -
: , .
()
.
.
, ,

(.. ).
:
- ( , . ,
,
);
- Y (
;

, ,
).
, ,
, :
= + a(Y-Y).
- , .
,

^~^ 5 .

.
,
,
.

11.

447

, .
, :
( .
v : ,
, :
= + a(Y e - 7 ),
, , . , ,
, ..
a(Ye-Ye) .
:
= .
^ ,
, .

, . , ,
, , . s - ,
(1 - s) - ,

= s + (l-s)[P + ( Y - Y)].
,
,
, - ,
, .
(l-s)P :
sP = sP e + (l-s)[a(Y - Y)].
s, :
= + [(l-s)a/s](Y - Y).

.
,

448

3.

. , ,
.
.
,
.
, .

, .
.
,
.

:
*

Y = Y + ( - ),

= sA(l - s)a]. , ,
,
.

, ,
. ,
, ,
, .

. ,

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. , ,

11.

449

6.


,
.
.
70- .
,
, .
,
.

.
,
.
(..
- ). , ,
, ,

. ,
,
(.. or ).
,
. ,

, .
,

.: Rotemberg J.
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Keynesian Economics and the Output-Inflation Tradeoff // Brookings Papers
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29 -

450

3.

7.
,
.
,
,
. ,
, .
, ,
. ,

.
.

:
.
.
, . ,
, ,
8 .
, , - ,
. ,
(
s ). ,
( - ).

Lucas R.E. Jr. Some International Evidence on Output-Inflation Tradeoffs


// American Economic Review 63 (June 1973), pp. 326-334; repr. in Lucas R.E.
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the Output-Inflation Tradeoff // Brookings Papers on Economic Activity no.l
(1988), pp. 1-65.
(

11.

451


. 11-5
,
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.
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.

, .
.

29'

452

3.

,
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:
Y = Y + ( - ).
, . 11-6
. ,
.
,
.
. 11-6.
.

,
.

,
. 11-7 , .
.

11.

453


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11-2. ,

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454

.

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Phillips A.W. The Relationship between Unemployment and the Rate


of Change of Money Wages in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957 // Economica
25 (November 1958), pp. 283-299.

11.

457

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. , 1 2,5 .

Arthur M. Okun Efficient Disinflationary Policies //American Economic


Review 68 (May 1978): 348-352; Robert J.Gordon and Steven R. King The
Output Cost of Disinflation in Traditional and Vector Autoregressive Models
// Brookings Papers on Economic Activity no.l (1982): 205-245.

11.

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Sargent T.G. The Ends of Four Big Inflations // in Hall R.E (ed.)
Inflation: Causes and Effects (Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 1982).

466

3.

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11.

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: -

.: Mankiw G.N. Small Menu Costs and Large


Business Cycles: A Macroeconomic Model of Monopoly // Quarterly Journal of
Economics 100 (May 1985), pp. 529-537; Akerlof G.A., Yellen J. A.Near
Rational Model of the Business Cycle, with Wage and Price Inertia //
Quarterly Journal of Economics 100 (Supplement 1985), pp. 823-838; and
Blanchard O.J. and Kiyotaki N. Monopolistic Competition and the Effects
of Aggregate Demand // American Economic Review 77 (September 1987),
pp. 647-666. Mankiw G. and Romer D. (eds.)
New Keynesian Economics (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1991).

11.

471

.
10 ,
10 1 ,
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, 20-
30-.

, .

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.
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,

.: Taylor J. Staggered Price


Setting in a Macro Model // American Economic Review 69, (May 1979),
pp. 108-113; Blanchard O.J. Price Asynchronization and Price Level Inertia //
in Dornbusch R.and Simonsen M. (eds.) Inflation, Debt, and Indexation (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1983), pp. 3-24.
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Mass.: MIT Press, 1991).

11.

473

, .
,
, .
.
, .
,
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.
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Multiple equtibria (., .) - . - .


.: Cooper R., John A. Coordinat-

11.

475

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18 .

ing Coordination Failures in Keynesian Models // Quarterly Journal of


Economics 103 (1988), pp. 441-463; Mankiw G.and Romer
D. (eds.) New Keynesian Economics (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT press, 1991);
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Review, 81 (June 1991), pp. 539-552.
1 8
Cooper R., Dejong D., Forthsythe R. and Ross T.W. Selection Criteria
in Coordination Games: Some Experimental Results // American Economic
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Tacit Coordination Games, Strategic Uncertainty, and Coordination Failure //
American Economic Review 80 (March 1990), pp. 234-248.

476

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Blanchard ., Summers L. Beyond the Natural Rate Hypothesis //


American Economic Review 78 (May 1988), pp. 182-187.

11.

479

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Weitzman M.L. The Share Economy (Cambridge, Mass.:Harvard


University Press, 1984).

490

3.

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Dominguez ., Fair R. and Shapiro M. Forecasting the Depression:


Harvard Versus Yale // American Economic Review 78 (September 1988),
pp. 595 - 612. ,
, ,

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12.

491

, 1982 .,
. 12-1.

1980 1981

1982 1983 1984 1985 1986

PllC. 12-1. 1 9 8 2 .
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Lucas R.E. Jr. Econometric Policy Evaluation: A Critique // Carnegie


Rochester Conference on Public Policy 1 (Amsterdam: North-Holland Publishing
Company, 1976), 19-46; : Lucas R.E. Jr. Studies in Business
Cycle Theory (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press, 1981).

494

3.

,

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.
Romer CD. Spurious Volatility in Historical Unemployment Data //
Journal of Political Economy 94 (February 1986), pp. 1-37; Romer CD. Is the
Stabilization of the Postwar Economy a Figment of the Data? // American
Economic Review 76 (June 1986), pp. 314-334.

"
",
discretionary policy. - . .

496

3.



.

.
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:
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Nordhaus W. The Political Business Cycle // Review of Economic Studies


42 (1975), pp. 169-190; Tufte E. Political Control of the Economy (Princeton,
N.J.: Princeton University Press, 1978).
32 -

498

3.


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Alesina A. Macroeconomics and Politics // NBER Macroeco\norft


Annual 3 (1988),pp. 13-52.
32'

500

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. .: Kydland F.E., Prescott E.C.
Rules Rather Than Discretion: The Inconsistency of Optimal Plans // Journal
of Political Economy 85 (June 1987), pp. 473-492; Barro R.J., Gordon D. A
Positive Theory of Monetary Policy in a Natural Rate Model // Journal of

12.

503

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Political Economy 91 (August 1983), pp. 589-610.

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80- . . : Friedman . Day of Reckoning: The Consequences of American
Economic Policy Under Reagan and After ( NY:Random House, 1988).

12.

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. : A.R.Mundell International Economics
(New York: Macmillan, 1968). .: J.M.Fleming Domestic
Financial Policies under Fixed and under Floating Exchange Rates // IMF
Staff Papers 9 (November 1962): 369-379.

13.

517


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519

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521

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522

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13.

523


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524

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218 1,83 . , 1982 .- 248
2,42 .
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13.

527

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13.

529





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,
,

.:
B.Eichengreen (ed.) The Gold Standard in Theory and History (New York:
Methuen, 1985).

13.

533


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535

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536

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.: P.R.Krugman and M.Obstfeld International Economics:
Theory and Policy (Glenview, 111.: Scott, Foresman and Company, 1988),
Chapter 19.

13.

539

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13.

545

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546

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13.

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14.

551

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14.

553

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554

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14.

555

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- - -


Lucas R.E. Jr., Rapping L.A. Real Wages,
Employment and Inflation // Journal of Political Economy, 77, (September/October 1969), pp. 721-754.

556

3.

.
.
24-5. .


, ; , .

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14.

557

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2


: Barro R.J. Output effect of
government purchases // Journal of Political Economy 89 (December 1981):
1086-1121.

558

3.

.

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,

. 14-5.
. ,
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-

14.

559


.
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560

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14.

561



( ) ().
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1948 1985 .
.
, , 1982 .
3,5% 3,4% 1984 . ,

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562

3.

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14.

563

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4 .


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.
,
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.

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: ,

.
.: Prescott E.C. Theory Ahead of Business Cycle Measurement, Summers L.H. Some skeptical observations on real business cycle
theory // Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis (Fall 1986).
36*

564

3.

. ,


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14.

565

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3

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- \

Altonji J.G. Intertemporal Substitution in Labor Supply: Evidence frorr


Micro Data // Journal of Political Economy 94 (June 1986, Part 2); S176-S215
Ball L. Intertemporal Substitution and Constraints on Labor Supply: Evidence
from Panel Data // Economic Inquiry 28 (October 1990); pp. 706-724.

566

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6.

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:

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11.

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60- . .

King R.G., Plosser C.I. Money, Credit and Prices in a Real Business Cycle
// American Economic Review 74 (June 1984), pp. 363-380.

14.

567

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.: Barro R.J.
Macroeconomics, 3d ed. (New York: Wiley, 1990).
. .

568

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, - .


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. 8.


. : Mankiw G. Real Business Cycles: a New Keynesian
Perspective // Journal of Economic Perspectives 3, (Summer 1989), pp. 79-90;
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Cycles Theory (Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press, 1989), pp. 16-50;
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Perspectives 3 (Summer 1989); pp. 51-77.
^

14.

569


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, .' Hall R.
Intertemporal Substitution and Consumption // Journal of Political Economy
96 (april 1988), pp. 339-357 Campbell J.Y, Mankiw G N. Consumption,
Income and Interest Rates Reinterpreting the Time-Series Evidence" //
NBER Macroeconomic Annual (1989), pp. 185-216

592

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Hayashi F Why is Japan's Saving Rate So Apparently High? // NBER


Macroeconomic Annual (1986): 147-210.
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Individual Thrift and the Wealth of Nations // American Economic Review 76
(June 1986): pp. 297-313.

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Ando A., Kennickell A. How Much (or Little) Life Cycle Saving Is There
in Micro Data? // Dornbush R., Fisher S. and Bossons J.( ed.) Macroeconomics
and Finance: Essays in Honor of Franco Modigliani (Cambridge, Mass.: MIT
Press, 1986).

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Resolution 30 (Sept. 1986), pp. 403-419; Slemrod J. Fear of Nuclear War and
the Intercountry Differences in the Rate of Saving // Economic Inquiry 28
(Oct. 1990), pp. 647-657.
Friedman M. A Theory of Consumption Function (Princeton, N.J.:

15.

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Hypothesis: Theory and Evidence // Journal of Political Economy 86 (April
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Campbell J. Does Saving Anticipate Declining Labor Income? //
Econometrica 55 (Nov. 1982), pp. 1249-1273; Campbell J., Mankiw G.
Consumption, Income and Interest Rates: Reinterpreting the Time-series
Evidence // NBER Macroeconomic Annual (1989): 185-216.
39 -

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NBER, Macroeconomic annual, 1987, pp. 263-303.

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Motive // Journal of Political Economy, 93 (1985), pp. 1045-1076.

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Market Approach // Quarterly Journal of Economics 99 (1984), pp 729-752,
Mankiw G N, Weil D The Baby Boom, the Baby Bust, and the Housing
Market // Regional Science and Urban Economics 19 (May 1989), pp 235-258
42'

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N - PY,
- , ,
.
.

,
.
,
, .
I AN.
,
I - AN = PAY.
,
.
,
. ,

Miron J.A., Zeldes S.P. Seasonally, Cost Shocks, and the Production
Smoothing Model of Inventories // Econometrica 56 (July 1988), pp. 877-908.

17.

663

- ,
.
, .
Y - , 8 , AY - "" .
, ,
, .
17-4


, , . 17-8.
. .
-
. 17-8.
.
,
,
, ,
.


,
. , ,
:

, Y -
. Y
, ()
(, , ). - . .

664

4.

I = 0.2AY.
20
.
& ' , ?--^ ,--' ? ' -", i --! -<-' v ' ''--" - -v, <*', ,' / -v< <:, V - A: J b ' J^-V--- v ^ , a A '


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.
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.

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.
,
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.
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*%


, .
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.

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,
.
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, .

17.

665

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.

.
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-, ,

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, .


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,
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(

1. .
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.
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.
2.
.

666

4.

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3.
, q ,
.
.
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.
.
5. .
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.
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, .



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q






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17.

667


1.
( )?
2. q , ?
3. ,
?
4. ,
?


1. ,

, .
) -
.
) .
)
.
2. ,
( , - .)
? ,
?
3. IS-LM, 9 10, ,
. ,
,
:
.
) , .
) ,

668

4.

1 = 1 + aY, , I

- , - ,

. - ? .
) , , .
, :

I = I + aY - ,

I - , - ,

- , . IS-LM,

, ,
. ,
IS-LM?

18


. 6


. 9 10 ,
IS-LM
.

. ,

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() .
, ,

.
-

18-1.

>

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6
. ,
,

. ,
,

670

4.

.
.
,
, , , .
,
, (, ), .
- , - , D -
.

=
+

+
D
*'
, ,

,
.

100%-
, .
,
.
, 1000 .
. ,
, . ,
,
. , ,
.
:
,
. 100%-
.
,
(1000 .) . . 18-1

18.

671

- .
1000 .,
1000 .
.
. ,
,
. ,
, " ".

. 18-1.
100%-
.

100% -

?
1000 . .
1000 .
. 1 . 1 . . "
100% ,
.

,
- ,

.
. ,

, 100%- .

672

4.

,
. .
.
. 18-2
. ,
{ ) 20%.
1000 ., , 200 .
, 800 . .

. 18-2.
.
1000

,

18.

673

, ,
800 . 1000 .

1800 .: - 1000
. 800 .
. ,
.
. ,
( ,
-) 800 . .
. 18-2 . 800
., 20% (160 .)
640 . , 640 .
640 . , 128
. (20%) 512 .
.
, .
- .
0,2. , 1000
:
= 1000 .
(1-) 1000 .
= (1-)2 1000 .
^ = (1-)3 1000 .
= [l+(l-rr)+(l-rr) 2 +(l-rr) 3 +...]1000 . = (1/)1000 .

, 1 .
(1/) . = 0,2,
43 -

674

4.

1000 .
1
5000 .

.
3,
,
, , . .
:
, .
, (, ).
.
,

.
,
.
, , ,
.
,
,
.

.

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9 ). , X
-1 1,
2
3
{
1:
1 + X + X + X + ... = 1/(1-)
X = (1-).
/ *- 1
,

18.

675



.
.
.
- (
) R.
.
-
, .

.
-

D.

, .
,
.
, :
- + D.
, , ,
:
- D.
, :
- ( D) + D - ( + 1)D.
:
D = /( + 1).
,
.
, ,
:
43*

676

4.

= + R.
( ,
) :
R = D.
,
,
( D) + ( D) = (cr + rr)D.
:
D - /( + ).
,

.

:
/( + 1) - D - /( + ).
,

,
. ,
.
( + 1)/( + ) m
:
- m .
m
. ,
, .

1990 . 300 .,
0,1,
0,4.

0,4+ 1
m=

= 2,8.
0,4 + 0,1

18.

677


- 2,8 300 - 840.
2,8
. , 840
.

: , .
1. ,
.
2. ,

.

.
3. ,
, , ,
. .

, .


. , . ,
.

.
,
, -

678

4.

.
-
: -
.

,
.
.
.
- ,
.
,
. , .. ,
.. 2.
.


, .
- ,
. ,
, . ,
. ,
, .
, , ,
.
.

" " (discount window) - ,


(discount
rate) . - . .

18.

679

18-1
. ,\*'V^

..

30- .
1929 1933 .
28%. 10,
.
.
18-1 ,
, - , 1929 1933 . ,

: 18%. - 38%
.
18-1
1929 1933 .
1929




26,5

1933
19,0

3,9

5,5

22,6

13,5

7,1
3,9
3,2
3,7

8,4
5,5
2,9
2,3

0,14
0,17

0,21
0,41

Friedman , Schwartz A A Monetary History of the United States, 1867-19


(Princeton, NJ Princeton University Press, 1963), Appendix A


.
1930 1933 . 9000 ,
.

.
,
.

. ,

680

4.

-
.
.
,
.
,
, .
,
,
,
, .
.
,
. , ,
. ,
. -, ,

,
. -,
. ,
,
.
, 30- .,
,
.
,

. ,
: 80- - 90- .
.

.

18-2.

, .

18.

681

. ,
, ,
, ..
(M/P)d -kY,
- . ,
,
:
(M/P)d =L(i,Y).
6
9 10 IS-LM.
,
.
,
,

.

,
.
6, ,
, : ,
. (
) ,
.

.

,
.
, - .
,

682

4.

. , () ,
. , ,
3.
,

. , ,
. ,
:
(M/P)d = L(rs , r b , it e , W),
r s - , -
, - ,
W - . r s
, ..
.
. , -
. W
, ,
, .
,
L(i,Y) .
-, Y
W. -,
- ,

(i = + ). ,
,
.

Tobin J. Liquidity Preference as Behavior Toward risk // Review of


Economic Studies 25, (February 1958), pp.65-86.

18.

683



. ,
. (Ml)

. ,
. ,
:
, ,
.
, (Ml) - ""
,
.

, " " .
,
.
,
(,
), 2.
, 2,
, . ,
2 , Ml.
18-2


? 100 .?
1990 . 1000
, 100
. ,

684

4.

.
:
,
, ,
. ,
, ,
,
. , ,
.

,
,
. , , , ,
.
,
,
, -
( ).
,
- .
, ,
. ,
, .

,

. 50- .

18.

685

.
-
- .
:
.
, , ,
.
"" "" ,
Y .
( , , ,
).
,
..
?
.
Y . .
. 18- ,
. Y, ,
- Y/2.

.
Y/2, ,

. . 18- ,
Y/2 0
Y/4. ,
,
<
4

Baumol W. The Transactions Demand for Cash: an Inventory Theoretic


Approach // Quarterly Journal of Economics 66 (November 1952), pp. 545-566;
Tobin J. The Interest Elasticity of Transactions Demand for Cash // Review
of Economics and Statistics (August 1956), pp. 241-247.

686

4.

.
N ,
Y/N .,
1/N . . 18- ,

Y/N 0, Y/(2N).
.

18-3.
.
,

- Y / 2

*
N-

, N?
,
,

.
,
, F, ,

18.

687

( ,
). , 12 . 15 . F = 3 .
i; i - , ,
.

N ,
. N Y/(2N), a
iY/(2N).

F,
FN. , :

_
~

. 18-4. . ,
, ,
N N, N

N,
.

688

4.

. 18-4
N.
5
N. N :

N
:

, ,
F, Y, i,
.
, - , .
. ,
(
), ( ).
,
. i -
, a F -
(, ).

., -
. N
.
N :
dC/dN = - iYN"2 /2 + F.
dC/dN=O
N .

18.

689

. , Y
, L(i,Y),
.
18-3


,
, .

.
""
LM, , -
- .

. ,
-
.
,
1/2: 10%
5%.
1/2: 10%-
(, 10 11 %) 5%-
.
, , . ,
, - ,
1/2. , - :
.
, , , ,
, .
, ,
, , ,
. .
N , .
N - , (Y/2N)
.
44 -

690

4.

.
-, 1/2. N
, 1, - 0.

.
1 1/2, - 0 1/2,
6 .

18-3. .

,
, : , -. ,

.
, .


. , ,
, .
,
-
.


.: Goldfield M. The Demand for Money Revisited // Brookings Papers
on Economic Activity, no. 1 (1973), pp. 577-638; Laidler D. The Demand for
Money: Theory and Evidence, 3rd ed. (New York: Harper and Row, 1985).

18.

691


1.
,
.
2. ,
.
.

, ,
.
3.
.
.
.
4.
.
,
.
5. ,
-, .
, .

100%-



t s

,,



44'




'




692

4.

1. , .

2. ?
3.
?
4.
?
5.
-? ?

'

1. 1929-1933 . -


. , 18-1.
) , , ?
) ,
, ?
)
?
2. -
.
) (
)? Y.
) ,
? ? , F.
) ? i ( i - , 6%

18.

693

0,06).
)
, -?
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?
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-. ?
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. - ,
.
) Y/(2N).
N.
.
)
Y,
i , F.
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? .
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? ( Y F).
) , - .
?


,
.


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. , ;
, .
/
1 ,
. , ,
,
, .
,
.

,
. , ,
,
.

695


,
,
.

- - , .
1.

,
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.
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, .
, 3 4.
-
, ,
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, .
,
:

.
,
. ,

, -

696

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,
.

, , . ,

, .
2.

, ..
.
.
-
. IS-LM ( 9 10) ,
, , .

,
.
-
- ,
.

, -
-
: ,
.

697

3.


,
.

,
, . 2,
, - .
6
,
, .

.
, ,
,
,
.

. , 6
,
,
. ,

( 7).

. , (..
),
. 5,
, , , .
,
. -

698


.
. ,
- - .
4.


,
,
. 11, - ,
,
.

.

.

. . -, , ,
. ,
-
. -,

.
, - .

,
- -
.
, -

699

3 7.

.

,
. ,
. ,

;
.
1.

,
.
, ,
,
.
- , .
( 4),

.
,
. ,

. ,

, ,
- , ,
. ,

.
:

700

(, ).


. ,
5,
.
,
,
.
, ,
.
,
, - . ,
.
, 70- .,
,
.
,
- .
2.

8-11
,

- -
. ,
; - -

701

, ,
, .
, 12,
,
,
. ,
. ,

,
- - ;

.
,
, ? ,
,
.
, , ,
.
,
,
- (
8-11). , 14, -
.
,
, .
3.

, ?
,
: -

702

? ,

.
, .
- .
, 70- ., 10%

. , 6,

, " ",
" ", ,
.
,
, , .
,

. , 70- .

,
. ,
, -
, .

.
, 11,


(
). ,
-

.

703

,
,

. ,
11,

, ,
.
( 14)
,
- ,
,
.
, , ,
,
. 11
,

. ,
, ,
.
-

. ,

.
'
4.

?
80- 90- .

704

. ,
16, .

,
.
,
.
,
,
. ,
,
.
, .
,
.
(
15 ) ,

. ,
.

,
.

,
. -
.

. ,
.


(modating policy) -
,

. ,


.
() (accelerator
model) - ,

.
(stock) - .
(rental price of capital) - .
(outsiders) - ,
,


. . .
(acyclical) - ,
. . -, .
(balance sheet) - , .
45 -

(wait unemployment) -

. .
.
(large
open economy) - , , ,
; ,


. . .
(fiat money) ,
, . .
.
(accounting
profit) - ,


, . .
.
- (fiscal policy) -
.

(budget

706
constraint) -
. . .
(budget deficit)
-
.
( ) (budget surplus)
.
(gross
domestic product (GDP)) - , , .. ;

.

(gross national product (GNP)) - ,


;

.
(exchange-rate union) - ,

.
(GDP) - .
.

(demand
deposits) - ,

, ,
.
(outside lag) -
-
. . .
(inside lag) -

. .
.
(GNP) - . .
(transitory income) - , ;
. . .
(automatic stabilizer) - , ,
. ,
.

.

707

(crowding out) -
, .

; ,

.

(flexible prices) - ,
.
. .

(hysteresis) - , ,
,
.

(hyperinflation) .

(natural-rate hypotesis) - , ,

, .
(lifecycle hypotesis) - ,

(
); ,

.
(permanent income hypothesis) - ,
45'

(government purchases) -
. .
.
(public
saving)-pa3HOCTb
; .
(devaluation) -


. . .
(disinflation) - . . .
'
(monetary base)
. -
(high-powered money).

708
- (monetary policy) - .
(money
multiplier) -
, 1 .
(money) -
. . ,
.
(highpowered money) -
;
- .
1;2,- ;
.
(deflator) - .
.
(GNP deflator) -
;
,


.
(debt-deflation) ,
-



,
.
(deflation) -
. . ,
.
(discounting)
,

.
(valueadded) -
.
(
) (factor share)
- - .
(labor-force participation rate) -

.

(natural rate of unemployment) , ; ,

709

(wage
rigidity) - .

(gold standard) ,
.

(Okun's law) -

, ,
2%.

(golden rule) -
: ,


(
).

(closed economy) - ,
. .
.
(stock) - , . . .
(real money balances) -
; , (/).
(wage) -
.

(stock-out avoidance) -

(excess reserves) -
.
(cost of capital)
- , ,
.
" " (menu cost) , .
" "
(shoeleather cost) - , (-

710
,
).
- (depreciation) -

.
(import quota) .
(imports) -

.
()
(investment) - ,
.
(residential investment)

.
(inventory
investment) -
,
,
.

(investment tax credit) -
,


.

(index of leading indicators) - .

(consumer price index (CPI)) -
,

.
(Laspeyres
price index) -
,
. .
.
(Paasche price
index) - , . .
.
(insiders) - ,


.
. .
(inflation tax)
- ,

;
.
(inflation) -
.


(cost-push inflation) - , .
. .
(demand-pull inflation) - , .
. .
(CPI) - . .
(capital) - 1)
, . 2)
, , .
KBOTa(quota)-c/w. .
(Keynesian
cross) - " " , .
(classical
dichotomy) -
- ,

. . .

711
(classical
model) - , , . -
,

.
. .
^tity theory of money) - , ,
.
(competition) - ,
,
.
(countercyclical)
,
;

. .
, .
(indifference
curve) -
, , -

712

.
IS (IS-curve) -
,
. .
IS-LM, LM.
LM (LM curve) -
(
),
. .
IS - LM, IS.
-

(real aggregate demand curve) - :



, .
-

(real aggregate supply


curve) - : ,

.
(Phillips curve) ; -


., ,
.
(Lucas critique) ,
.
(liquid) - ;

.

(macroeconometric model) - ,

,
.
MaKpo3KOHOMHKa(macroeconomics)-

.
(small

open economy) - , ;
,


, ,


.
. .
(intertemporal budget constraint) -
, .

713

, .


(intertemporal substitution of
labor) -
.

- (BaumolTobin model) -
,



.

(unit of account),
;
..
, .


(sticky-wage model) - ,

.


(monetary transmission mechanism)
-


.

IS-LM (IS-LM model) - , ,



.

(microeconomics)
- . . .

(Keynesian model) , " " ;





. . .

(world
interest rate) -
.
(model) - -

714
- (Mundell-Fleming model) - IS-LM
.

(worker-misperception
model) - ,
.
(sticky-price
model)- ,
.

(imperfect-information model) - ,


,
.
(Solow growth
model) - , ,
-

.

(market-clearing model) - , , ,
.

(monetarism) - ,


,

.
(moral hazard) v
,
.
-
,


.
(multiplier) - .

, ,
.

(government-purchases
multiplier) -

.
(currency) -

.
(corporate income tax) - .

(tax


multiplier) - 1 .
(1:al income accounting) -
.
(national
saving) -
;
.
(sticky prices) - , . . .
(adverse selection) -
,
. , , ,
.
(work
in process) -
.
(neutrality of
money) - ,

715
. .
.

(new Keynesian economics) ,



""
, ,
. . .
(neoclassical model of investment) - ,


.
(time inconsistency)
,
,
,

.
<

(new classical economics) ,
. . -

716
.
(nominal interest rate) -
. . .
(nominal) - , .
. .
(nominal exchange rate) -

. . .
(reserve requirements) -

.
(normal good) ,
.


. . .
(liquidity
constraint) -

,

:
.

( ) (borrowing constraint) - (liquidity constraint) - ,
,

.
(openmarket operations) -

.

(bond) - , ( , )
.
,

(leading
indicators) - ,
,

.

() (ex- s
change rate) - ,


(national income accounts
identity) - ,
-


, , .
(Solow residual) ,

,
.
(open economy) - ,


. . .
(discouraged workers) - ,
.
(purchasing-power parity) - , ,
.
(floating
exchange rate) - ,
, ,
. .

717
.
(appreciation) -
.
. .
,
(dominated asset) - ,

,
.
q (Tobin's q)


.
(political business cycle) -
,
.
(portfolio theories of money
demand) - ,

. . .
(intermediation)
. .

18

constant returns to scale) - : ,


; 1

> .

1 .

(permanent income) - , ; . . .

(marginal product of labor (MPL)) - .

(flow) - , . ..
(consumption) - .
, (shock) -
(,
) .
(marginal rate of substitution (MRS)) ,
- ;
.
(marginal propensity to consume (MPC)) - ,

(ginal product of capital (MPK))


.

BoncTBa(production smoothing)-

,
.
.
(profit) - ; . .
, .
(present
value) - ,

.
(identification problem) - ,
.


(coordination
failure) - ,

,
.
(1tion function) -
: , Y = F(K,L).
(Cobb-Douglas production
function) - F(K,L)=AKaL1"a, - , L - , a - .
(procyclical) - ,

,
;

. . ,
.

719



.
(equilibrium)-cocTOHHHe
, ,
.
(disposable
income) - ,
.
(rational
expectations) - ,

, .

(labor force) -
,
.

ex ante
() (ex ante real interest
rate) -

;
. . ex post ().

(Ricardian equivalence) - ,
,
, : -

ex post
() (ex post real interest
rate) -
;

-

720
. .
ex post ().
(real) - ;
.
(real exchange rate) - .
. .
(real
interest rate) - ,
.
. .
(revaluation) -
( ). . .
(reserves) -
.
(saving)- . , , .

(precautionary Saving)- , , ,
.


(contractionary policy) - ,
, . . .
(seigniorage)- , ; .
(velocity
of money) - ;
, .
(random
walk) -
.
(depreciation) -
. . .

(total factor
productivity) - ;

,
. .


.
.
(aggregate supply curve) -
.
(aggregate) - .
- (aggregate demand externality) -
.

721
, (recession) - .
(arbitrage) -


.

(average propensity to consume (APC)) - (C/Y).
(store of value) - ;
.

. (aggregate demand curve) -


,
.

(medium of
exchange) - ,

; .
. .

(double
coincidence of wants) - ,
,
.

,
(loanable funds) - ,


.

(sacrifice ratio)
- "" : .

(stabilization policy) -

.
(interest rate) -

46 -

722

;
.
(stagflation) - , ; .
(animal spirits) -
:
,
.

(expansionary policy) ,
,
. .
.
100%- (100-percent reserve banking)
. . .
(unemployment insurance)-rocyflapcT
.
(sectoral shift)-


.
(capital account) , ;
.
(current
account) -
,

.
(tariff) -
.
(underground
economy) - , - .
(Euler's theorem) , ,

, , .

(transactions theories of
money demand) - ,


.
.
.

(efficiency-wage theories) ,
, ,

.
q (q-Theory of
investment) - ,

.

(liqudity-preference theory) - " "
,
.

(real business cycle theory),
46*

723
(, )

(, ).
(commodity money) - , ,
.
. .
(transfer
payments) - , , . . .
(labor-augmenting
technological progress) - ,
,

,

.

(diminishing marginal product) , -
(

).
(labor ho-

724

arding) -

.

(seasonal
adjustment) -
.


(quantity equation) - , (MV=PY);
,


.

(discount rate) ,
.

(Fisher equation)
- ,


(i = +
).
(unemployment rate) - .

(imputed value) -

.
(steady state)
- ,
.

(factor of production) - , ,
.

() (Federal Reserve) -
(fixed exchange rate) -

. .
.
(financing
constraint) -
, (, ) .
(financial intermediation) - ,
,
,


,

.
(stock market) ,
.
6e3pa6oTH||a(frictional
unemployment) -
,
. . .
(consumption
function) - , ; ,
= C(Y-T).
(money
demand function) - , :
, (/) = L(i,Y).
(factor
price) -
.
(central bank) , ,
.
(cyclical

725
unemployment) - , ;

.
(fractional-reserve banking) ,

. . 100%- .

(business fixed investment) , ,

.
(private saving) - .

(efficiency units of labor)
, .
(net investment) - ;
.
(net exports) -
.

726
(exogenous
variable) -
- , . . .
(economic
profit) - ,

. .
.
(business cycle) - ,
.
(exports) -
.
(elasticity) - - , .
(endogenous variable) - ,
-
; ,
. . .
(income effect) -

. .

.
(substitution
effect) -



. .
.
-(111Tobin effect) -


, ,
.
(Pigou effect) -
,

.
(Fisher effect) -

" ".
(efficiency of
labor) - : , , , .


(autonomous
consumption)
, (Akerlof, George)
(accomodating
policy)
( ) (accelerator
model of inventories)
(stock)
, (Alesina, Alberto)
, (Altonji, Joseph)

(altruism between generations)
, (Ando, Albert)
, (Angell, Norman)

,
(rental price of
capital)

(outsiders in labor force)
(balance sheet)
(banking system)
, (Barro, Robert)
, (Barsky, Robert)
(barter economy)
, (Battalio, Raymond)
, (Baum, Prank)
, (Baumol, William)
(unemployment)
\
(wait unemployment)!
, (Becker, Gary)
",
, (Beil, Richard)
s
, (Benjamin, Daniel)
;
, (Bernanke, Ben)
, (Bernheim, . Douglas) ,
T.C. (Berry T.S.)
, (Bils, Mark)
, (Blanchard, Olivier)
, (Blinder, Alan)
, (Ball, Laurence)
(large open
economy)
, (Bordo, Michael)
, (Boskin, Michael)
, (Bossons, John)
- (Bretton-Woods
System)
, (Bryan, William
Jennings)
, (Brown, Charles)

727
, (Brown, E. Gary)
, (Brumberg, Richard)
, (Brunner, Karl)
, (Bruno, Michael)
, (Bulow, Jeremy)
(fiat money)
(accounting profit)
, (Bush, George)
(capital
budgeting)
- (fiscal policy)
(budget constraint)
(budget deficit)
,
(budget surplus)
, (gross
domestic product (GDP))
, (gross
natinal product (GNP))
(currency)
(exchange-rate union)
(GDP) - .
.
, (Van Huyck, John)
, (Weil, David)
, (Weitzman, Martin)
(Britain, United Kingdom)
80- . (effect
of 1980s recession)

(importance of trade for)
(imports and
exports in)
, 1730-1920
(interest rate in, 1730-1920)
8 0 - .
(unemployment in 1980s, in)
(demand deposits)

(outside lag in stabilization policy)
(GNP) - .


muiHTHKH(inside lag in stabilization policy)
, (Volcker, Paul)
(transitory income)
(automatic
stabilizers)
, (Woodbury, Stephen)

728
(crowding out)
,

(Hamilton,
Alexander)
, (Hamilton, James)
(Germany)

(hyperinflation
in interwar)
(imports and
exports in)
(inflation rate in)

(postwar economic growth)
(flexible prices
vs. sticky prices)
(hyperinflation)
(natural-rate
hypotesis)
(life-cycle
hypotesis)
(permanent
income hypothesis)
(hysteresis)
, (Goldfeld, Stephen)
, (Gordon, David)
, (Gordon, Robert)
-:
.

(government
purchases)
(public saving)
- . .
, (Gray, JoAnna)
, (Griliches, Zvi)
, (Grubel, Herbert)
(devaluation of
currency)
(disinflation)
, (Dejong, Douglas)
(monetary base) .
(high-powered money)
(monetary policy)
(money
multiplier)
(money)
(high-powered
money)
1.2.
(GNP deflator)


(debt-deflation)
(deflation)
, (Geary, Patrick)
, (John, Andrew)
, (Johnson, Lyndon)
, (Jorgenson, Dale)
, (Dirksen, Everett)
(discounting)
(value-added)
, (debt, government)


(labor-force
participation rate)
, (Domingez, Kathrin)
(dominated asset)
, (Dornbusch, Rudiger)
, (Douglas, Paul)
(European
Monetary System (EMS))
(natural
rate of unemployment)
(wage rigidity)
(bequests)
- .
(Okun's law)

(closed economy and open economy).
(stocks vs. flows)
(stocks)

(real money balances)
(wage)
(stock-out
avoidance)
, (Zeldes, Stephen)
(gold standard)
,
(Golden rule)
(excess reserves)
, (cost of
capital, real)
(menu costs)
,
(shoeleather cost of inflation)
(depreciation)
(import quota)
(imports)
( i n v e s t m e n t ) - .



(residential investment)
(inventory investment)
(investment
function)

(investment tax credit)


(index of
leading indicators) - .
(leading indicators)
(consumer
price index (CPI))
(Laspeyres price
index)
(Paasche price index)
(insiders
in labor force)
(inflation tax)
(inflation)
(cost-push inflation)
(demand-pull inflation)
(CPI)- .
.
, (Yellen, Janet)
(Canada)
(investment
and income)

(importance of international trade
for)
(imports and
exports)
(labor
unions in)
(capital)

()
(investment)
, (Katz, Lawrence)
(efficiency of labor)
, (import .quota)
(Keynesian cross)
, (Keynes, John
Maynard)
, (Kennen, John)
, (Kennedy, John)
, (Kennickell, Arthur)
, (Kydland, Finn)
, (King, Robert)
, (King, Stephen)

729
, (Kiyotaki, Nabuhiro)
, (Clark, Kim)
(classical
dichotomy)

(classical economic theory)
(classical economists)
, (Cobb, Charles)
(quantity
theory of money)
(competition)

(countercyclical real wage)


, (Kotlikoff, Laurence)
, (Kochin, Levis)
(currencydeposit ratio)
q (Tobin's q)
(indifference curves)
IS (IS-curve)
LM (LM curve)
(real
aggregate demand curve)

(real aggregate supply curve)
(aggregate
supply curve)
(aggregate
demand curve)
(Phillips curve)
(Lucas critique)
, (Krugman, Paul)
, (Kuznets, Simon)
, (Campbell, John)
, (Laidler, David)
, (Leimer, Dean)
, (Lesnoy, Selig)
, (Lilien, David)
(liquid asset)
, (Littlefield, Henry) '
, (.) (Lucas, Robert, Jr.)
, (McCallum, Bennett)
, (McKinley, William)

(macroeconometric model)
(macroeconomics)
(!
models)

^30
accelerator model of inventories)

(aggregate demand model)

(aggregate supply,
four models of)

(business
fixed investment) model)
(general
equilibrium model)

(imperfectinformation model)

(intertemporal choice model)
IS-LM (IS-LM model)

(Keynesian
model of national income)
(lifecycle model)

(model of
aggregate supply) and aggregate
demand)
(money
supply model)
-
(Mundeil-Fleming model)

(neoclassical model of
investment)

(model of large open
economy)


(model of large open
economy in the short run)

(model of small open economy)

(real-business-cycle model)

( r e s i d e n t i a l
investment model)
(Solow growth
model)


(sticky-price
model)

(sticky-wage model)

(worker-misperception
model)
(small open
economy) - . ,
, (Mundell, Robert)

(intertemporal budget constraint)

(intertemporal substitution of labor)

(international tarde and finance)
, (Meyer, Bruce)
, (Murphy, Kevin)
(monetary
transmission mechanism)
(microeconomics)
(world interest rate). , .
, (Miron, Jefferey)
(models)
DRI (DRI model)
IS-LM (IS-LM model)

(Keynesian model of national income)
- (MundeilFleming model)

(worker-misperception model)
(sticky-price model)
(stickywage model)

(imperfect-information model)
(Solow growth model)

- (Baumol-Tobin model of
cash management)
(marketclearing model)
, (Modigliani, Franco)
(monetarist theory)
(moral hazard)
(multiplier) - .
,

.

(government-purchases multiplier)
, (Mussa, Michael)
, (Maddison, Angus)
, . (Mankiw, N. Gregory)
, (Martin,
William McChesney)
, (Marx, Karl)
(capital accumulation)
(currency)
(corporate
income tax)
(tax multiplier)
(National income
accounting)
(national saving)

, (Nevins, Alan)
(sticky vs. flexible
prices)
(adverse selection)
(work in
process)
-
(new Keynesian economics)

(neoclassical model of investment)

(time inconsistency)

(new classical economics)
(nominal
interest rate)- . ,
.
, (Nordhaus, William)
(normal good)
(bonds)
() ,
(exchange rate, nominal)
() ,
(exchange rate, real)
() (exchange
rates)
, (Obstfeld, Maurice)
(contingent
liability)
,

731
(output)
(liquidity
constraint)
,
(borrowing constraint)
, (Okun, Arthur)
, (Olson, Mankur)
( -
) OPEC
(open-market
operations)

(leading
indicators)

(national income accounts identity)
(Solow residual)
, (open
economy, large)
, (open economy,
small)
- .

(discouraged
workers)

(purchasing-power parity)
, (Pieper, Paul)
, (Pigou, Arthur)
, (Plosser, Charles)
(floating
exchange rate)
(money supply)
(dissaving)
(appreciation)

(political business c>cle)

(portfolio theories of money demand)
(intermediation)
.
.
,
(constant
returns to scale)
(permanent income)
, (Poterba, James)
(flows)
(consumer)
(consumption)
, (shocks)
(marginal rate

732
of substitution (MRS))

(marginal propensity to consume (MPC))
(marginal
product of capital (MPK)) -

.
(marginal
product of labor (MPL))

(production smoothing)
, (Prescott, Edward)
(profit)
(identification
problem)
(coordination failure)
(production
function)
-
(Cobb-Douglas production function)

(procyclical real wage)
, (Poole, William)
(labor force)
(Ricardian equivalence)

(equilibrium of supply and demand)
(disposable income)

(rational
expectations)
ex ante
() (ex ante real interest rate)
ex post
() (ex post real interest rate)
- .
,
- .
, .
(revaluation of currency)
(reserve
requirements of Federal reserve)
(reserves)
, (Reagan, Ronald)
- .
, (Ricardo. David)
, (Rockoff, Hugh)
, (Romer, Christina)
?
. (Romer, David)
, (Romer, Paul)


, (Ross, Thomas)
, (Rotemberg, Julio)
.. (Radford, R.A )
, (Rapping, Leonard)
, (Raff, Daniel)
, (Sachs, Jeffrey)
, (Summers, Lawrence)
, (Summers, Robert)
, (Sumner, Scott)
, (Samuelson, Paul)
(11 budget)
(saving)

(precautionary saving)
"",

(seigniorage)
, (Silver, Stephen)
, (Simonsen, Mario
Henrique)
(velocity of
money)
, (Slemrod, Joel)
(depreciation)

(total factor productivity)
(aggregate supply)
(aggregate demand)
-
(aggregate demand externality)
(double coincidence
of wants)
(United
States)
(birthrate in)
noTpe6neHHH(consumpt ion
function)

(importance of trade for)
(imports and
exports)
(inflation
and unemployment)
1978-1981 .(
inflation in 1978-1981)
(inflation rate)
>

(inflation rate and
nominal interest rate)


(inflation reduction in)
(investment
and income in)

(as large open economy)

(macroeconomic data in)

(money growth and
inflation in)

(money supply
during Great Depression)
(oil prices in)

(Okun's law
and)

(presidential elections and economic
performance)

(ratio of labor income
to capital income)
(real GNP)
1982 (recession of 1982 in)
(saving rate)

(sources of economic growth)
(stagflation in)

(unemployment rate in)


(velocity
of money)
, (Solow, Robert)
(sacrifice ratio)
(recession)
(arbitrage)
(average
propensity to consume (APC))
, (loanable
funds)
(stabilization
policy)
(interest rate )
, (interest rate,
nominal)
, (interest rate,
real)
, (interest rate,

733
world)
(stagflation)
(animal spirits)
100-
(100-percent reserve banking)
(deposit insurance)
(unemployment
insurance)
(sectoral shift)
(capital account)
(current account)
, (Sargent, Thomas)
(tariff)
, (Taylor, John)
, (Temin, Peter)
(underground economy)

(random walk theorem for
consumption)
(Euler's theorem)

(transactions theories of money demand)

(efficiency - wage theories)
( q-Theory
of investment) .

(liquidity-preference theory)

(real business cycle theory)
, (Tobin, James)
(commodity money)
, (Topel, Robert)
(transfer payments)

(labor-augmenting technological
progress)
, (Tufte, Edward)

(diminishing marginal product)


'
(labor hoarding)

(quantity equation)
(Fisher equation)
(unemployment rate)
( price level
(imputed
value)
(steady state)

34
(discount rate of Federal
serve)
(factor of production)
()
federal Reserve)

(accommodating policy of)

(influence over money supply
of)

(as lender of last resort)

(open-market operations of)
(reserves of)
>, (Fair, Ray)
>, (Feldstein, Martin)
>, (Phelps, Edmund)
> (fixed
xchange rate)
> A.y.(PhilHps, A.W.)

(financing
onstraints)
(financial
Intermediation)
[, (Fisher, Stanley)
, (Fisher, Irving)
', (Fleming, J.Marcus)
(stock market)
, (Ford, Gerald)
', (Ford, Henry)
' " (Ford Motor
ompany)
, (Forsythe, Robert)
, (Franklin, Benjamin)
, (Friedman, Benjamin)
, (Friedman, Milton)
(frictional
unemployment)
(consumption
'unction)
(money demand
function)
, (Hansen, Alvin)
, (Hayashi, Fumio)
, (Heller, Walter)
, (Heston, Alan)
, (Hicks, John)


, (Hall, Robert)
- .

(factor price)
(prices) - . ,
,

(Central bank)
(cyclical
unemployment)

(fractional-reserve banking)

(business fixed investment)
- .
, (Cechetti, Stephen)
, (Cipolla, Carlo)

(efficiency units of labor)
(net investment)
(net exports)
, (Shapiro, Mattew)
, (Schwartz, Anna)
(Sweden)
, (Shleifer, Andrei)
, ( Spiegelman, Robert)
- .
, (Eichengreen, Barry)
, (Eisner, Robert)
(exogenous variable)
(economic policy,
public policy)
(active or
passive)
(discretionary)
(effect of lags on
(goals
r
* i
of makers of)
(rules)
it i'

(contractionary policy)
. :

(expansionary policy)
(for
.}
stabilization)

(and tradeoff between
inflation and unemployment
" <


(to encourage capital accumulation)
(economic profit)
(economic
forecasting)
(economic
fluctuations)
(economic growth)
(business cycle)
(exports)
, (Eckstein, Otto)
(elasticity)
(endogenous
variable)
(income effect)
(substitution effect)
- (Mundell-Tobin
effect)
(Pigou effect)
(Fisher effect)
- .

735
, (Hume, David)
(Japan)
(bonuses in)

(borrowing
constraint and saving rate)
(imports and
exports in)
(investment
and income in)

(postwar economic growth in)

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