678',$36<&+2/2*,&$



+80$1.12:/('*(,17+(&217(;72) &2*1,7,9(36<&+2/2*<
,PULFK58,6(/

,QVWLWXWHRI([SHULPHQWDO3V\FKRORJ\6ORYDN$FDGHP\RI6FLHQFHV 'EUDYVNFHVWD%UDWLVODYD6ORYDN5HSXEOLF (PDLOH[SVUXL#VDYEDVN

$EVWUDFW 7KLV VWXG\ VXPPDUL]HV WKH UHVHDUFK DFWLYLW\ RI WKH &HQWHU RI ([FHOOHQFH LQ WKH 5H VHDUFK RI &RJQLWLRQ &(9.2* 7KH DLP RI WKHVH UHVHDUFK SURMHFWV RI WKH &HQWHU ZDV WR FRQWULE XWH WR WKH IRUPDWLRQ RI WKH KXPDQ FRJQLWLYH SRUWUDLW PRGHO DV RSSRVHG WR WKH UHDFWLYH DQG LPSHUIHFWPRGHO.H\DVSHFWVRIWKHSRUWUDLWKDYHEHHQDQDO\]HGLQFOXGLQJFRJQLWLYHFRQVWUXFWV OHDUQLQJ DFWLYLW\ HIIHFW RI FRPSXWHUV RQ FRJQLWLYH SV\FKRORJ\ HIIHFW RI FRJQLWLYH SURFHVVHV PHPRU\ PRGHOV SUREOHP VROYLQJ HIIHFW RI FRJQLWLYH IDOODFLHV FRJQLWLYH VW\OHV DQG FRJQLWLYH VFKHPHV 7KH FRJQLWLYH SV\FKRORJ\ RI VFLHQFH KDV EHHQ GLVFXVVHG WKH UHODWLRQ RI FRJQLWLRQ DQG LQWHOOLJHQFH DQG DOVR ZLVGRP DV WKH FRJQLWLYH VXPPDU\ RI WKH SRUWUDLW 7KH FRJQLWLYH FRQFHSW EHOLHYHV LQ WKH GRPLQDQFH RI NQRZOHGJH LQ WKH FRQWH[W RI KXPDQ H[LVWHQFH +XPDQV UDWLRQDOO\ UHJXODWHWKHLUEHKDYLRUDFWLYHO\IRUPWKHLUHQYLURQPHQWDQGPHHWOLIHJRDOV

.H\ZRUGVFRJQLWLRQVFRJQLWLYHSV\FKRORJ\LQWHOOLJHQFHZLVGRP

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 6XSSRUWHUV RI WKLV QL]H WR OHDUQ WR VWXG\ WR LQYHVWLJDWH RU WR PDNH GHFLVLRQV 7KHVH FRQFHSWV DFTXLUHG NH\ PHDQLQJ ZLWKLQ FRJQLWLYH SV\FKRORJ\ $FFRUGLQJ WR 8 1HLVVHU  S  WKH FRQFHSW RI FRJQLWLRQ UHIHUV WR DOO WKH SUR FHVVHV E\ ZKLFK WKH VHQVRU\ LQSXW LV WUDQV IRUPHG UHGXFHG HODERUDWHG VWRUHG UH FRYHUHG DQG XVHG 6LPLODUO\ 5 /DFKPDQ HW DO  S  HPSKDVL]HG WKDW 7KH W\SLFDOFRJQLWLYHSV\FKRORJLVWLVWKHUHIRUH D VFLHQWLVW PRWLYDWHG WR XQGHUVWDQG D QDWX
7KLV UHVHDUFK ZDV VXSSRUWHG LQ SDUW E\ *UDQW $JHQF\9(*$*UDQW1RDQGWKH&HQWHU RI ([FHOHQFH RI WKH 6ORYDN $FDGHP\ RI 6FLHQFHV  &(9.2*

WKHRU\ DUH VSHFLDOLVWV ZKR IRFXV QRW RQO\ RQ  VRFDOOHG VFLHQWLILF SV\FKRORJ\  EXW DOVRRQPDQ\ILHOGVRIDSSOLHGSV\FKRORJ\ 7KH LPSRUWDQFH RI FRJQLWLYH SURFHVVHV LQ

UDO V\VWHP FRQVLVWLQJ RI WKH KXPDQ KLJKHU PHQWDO SURFHVVHV &RJQLWLYH SV\FKRORJ\ LV FKDUDFWHUL]HG E\ D SDUWLFXODU HPSLULFDO



678',$36<&+2/2*,&$

PHWKRGRORJ\ SUHIHUULQJ D FHUWDLQ LQIRUPD WLRQ SURFHVVLQJ DSSURDFK 7KXV FRJQLWLYH SV\FKRORJ\ LV D ILHOG RI SV\FKRORJ\ WKDW VWXGLHV KRZ PDQ DFFHSWV SURFHVVHV DQG XVHV LQIRUPDWLRQ 5XLVHO 5XLVHORY  5XLVHO

LQ DQ DOPRVW DXWRPDWLF RU LPSXOVLYH ZD\ 7KLUG NQRZOHGJH FDQ UHGXFH WKH UHVSRQ GHQW
V QHHG WR H[WHQG WKH HIIRUW WR DFWLYDW LQJVWUDWHJLHV +HQFH WKH PRGHO RI D VXFFHVVIXO LQ IRUPDWLRQ SURFHVVRU LQGLFDWHV WKH DGYDQ WDJHV RI NQRZOHGJH WKDW LV REWDLQHG E\ D

+80$1&2*1,7,9(32575$,7

VXFFHVVIXO

SURFHVVRU

6XFK

LQGLYLGXDOV

RFFXS\KLJKHUFRJQLWLYHOHYHOVLQFRJQLWLYH :KDW LV WKH JHQHUDO IRXQGDWLRQ IRU VXS SRUWHUV RI WKLV ILHOG RI VFLHQFH" )LUVWO\ WKH\ UHMHFW WKH LPDJH RI D UHDFWLYH KXPDQ FUHDWHG E\ EHKDYLRULVWV GLUHFWO\ JRY HUQHGE\KLVKHUHQYLURQPHQWEXWDOVRWKDW RI DQ LPSHUIHFW KXPDQ UXOHG E\ VXEFRQ VFLRXV RIWHQ FRQWUDGLFWLQJ PRWLYHV DV GHILQHGE\SV\FKRDQDO\VWV &RJQLWLYH SV\FKRORJLVWV DVVXPH WKDW PDQ LVDQLQGHSHQGHQWVXEMHFWZKRREVHUYHVWKH ZRUOG DURXQG KLP SUHGLFWV K\SRWKHVL]HV SODQV H[SHULPHQWV GUDZV FRQFOXVLRQV DQG XVHV WKH REWDLQHG NQRZOHGJH WR DGDSW WR DQGIRUPWKHZRUOGDURXQGKLP$FFRUGLQJ WR WKLV FRQFHSW PHQWDO SURFHVVHV DQG H[ WHUQDO EHKDYLRU GHSHQG RQ LQIRUPDWLRQ 0DQ LV JRYHUQHG E\ LQIRUPDWLRQ IURP KLVKHU HQYLURQPHQW RU IURP LQIRUPDWLRQ VWRUHG LQ ORQJWHUP PHPRU\ FRQWUROOLQJ KLVKHU QHHGV %RUNRZVNL HW DO  DQG , 5XLVHO 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 +RZHYHU WKH HIIHFW RI WKLV LQIRUPDWLRQ RQ WKH KXPDQ SV\FKH LV QRW OLQHDU ,Q IRUPDWLRQLVRQO\DPDWHULDOIRUPHGGXULQJ WKH SURFHVV RI WKLQNLQJ SUHGLFWLRQ DQG DFWLYLW\ SODQQLQJ 0DQ RIWHQ JRHV EH\RQG WKH JLYHQ LQIRUPDWLRQ KH KLPVHOI RUJD QL]HV WKH DFTXLUHG NQRZOHGJH RI WKH ZRUOG DQGKLVRZQDFWLYLW\+HLVQRWDSXSSHWRI WKH HQYLURQPHQW RU D SDVVLYH DFWRU GH SHQGLQJ RQ VXEFRQVFLRXV LQVWLQFWV +H

DVVXPHV WKH UROH RI D PRUH RU OHVV PDWXUH UHVHDUFKHU ZKR WR D ODUJH H[WHQW GHFLGHV KLV RZQ GHVWLQ\ DQG VKRXOG LW EHFRPH LQHYLWDEOH EHFRPHV DFWLYH LQ DFFRUGDQFH ZLWKKLVLQWHUQDOEHOLHIVDQGYDOXHV7KLVLV ZK\ WKH LPSDFW RI WKH FRJQLWLYH KXPDQ PRGHODVDZKROHLVFRQVLGHUHG 7KHKXPDQFRJQLWLYHSRUWUDLWLVWKHUHSUH VHQWDWLRQ RI PDQ
V IXQFWLRQLQJ EXW LW DOVR LOOXVWUDWHV FKDQJHV LQ FRJQLWLRQ DQG DFWLY LW\7KHPDLQPHWKRGRIFKDQJHLVV\VWHP DWLF DQG FRPSOH[ HGXFDWLRQ 0DQ FDQ EHWWHU IDPLOLDUL]H KLPVHOI ZLWK WKH VRFLDO HQYLURQPHQW DQG KLVKHU RZQ SHUVRQDOLW\

678',$36<&+2/2*,&$



DQG WKXV FKRRVH WKH RSWLPDO ZD\ RI HIIHF WLYH IXQFWLRQLQJ LQ WKH FKDOOHQJLQJ SRVWLQ GXVWULDOVRFLHW\ 3+DODPDHPSKDVL]HGWKHUROH RI  H[LVWHQWLDO FRJQLWLRQV LQ KXPDQ SV\ FKRORJLFDO IXQFWLRQLQJ +H HVSHFLDOO\

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

KLJKOLJKWHG WKH H[LVWHQWLDO DQDO\VLV  RI 9()UDQNOWKHUROHRIPDQLVWRDSSO\ WKH QRRG\QDPLF FRJQLWLYH VWUXFWXUH DQG IRUPXODWH WKH FKDOOHQJHV EURXJKW E\ WKH JLYHQ VLWXDWLRQ +RZHYHU KLV DWWHQWLRQ ZDV DOVR IRFXVHG RQ WKH QRHWLF GLPHQVLRQ RI . 3RSLHOVN\ WKH H[LVWHQWLDO SV\FKRG\ QDPLFVRI,'<DORPDQGRQVXFKVSHFLILF H[LVWHQWLDO FRJQLWLRQV DV PHDQLQJ LQ OLIH KRSH DWWLWXGH WR IUHHGRP DQG DWWLWXGH WR GHDWK

D ZH FDQ IRUPXODWH WKH K\SRWKHVLV WKDW WKH FRJQLWLYH VNLOO WR SHUFHLYH WKH DELOLW\WRUHDFKRQH
VJRDOVLVDQLPSRUWDQW UHVXOW RI SHUVRQDOLW\ WUDLWV DQG D VWURQJ

())(&72)&2*1,7,9( &216758&76

SUHGLFWRU RI OLIH VDWLVIDFWLRQ $ SDUWLDO PHGLDWRU RI WKH UHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ QHXURWL FLVP DQG OLIH VDWLVIDFWLRQ DQG D FRPSOHWH

7KH KXPDQ FRJQLWLYH SRUWUDLW LV E\ QR PHDQVFRPSDFW$PRQJVHYHUDOWKHRUHWLFDO FRQFHSWVWKHPRVWSRSXODULVWKHWKHRU\RI SHUVRQDO FRQVWUXFWV E\ *$ .HOO\  DQG WKH WKHRU\ RI LQIRUPDWLRQ SURFHVVLQJ E\$1HZHOODQG+$6LPRQ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
 FKDUDFWHULVWLFV LV WKHLU ELSRODULW\ &RQVWUXFWVSOD\DQLPSRUWDQWUROHLQLQGL YLGXDOV
 OLYHV 3HRSOH LGHQWLI\ WKHPVHOYHV

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 HPSKDVL]HV WKDW GHSUHVVLYH LQGLYLGXDOV

RIWHQ  PDNH ZURQJ DVVHVVPHQWV RI WKHLU SDVW H[SHULHQFH ZKLFK OHDG WR WKHLU FRQFOXVLRQ WKDW WKH\ DUH ORVHUV RU WKH\ DVVXPH  WKDW WKH ZRUOG DURXQG WKHP  LV XQIULHQGO\ DQG WKDW WKH\ GR QRW KDYH D IXWXUH 7KLV UHVXOWV LQ WKH VRFDOOHG FRJQL WLYH WULDG ZKLFK LQFOXGHV QHJDWLYH RSLQ LRQV DERXW RQHVHOI WKH ZRUOG DQG WKH IXWXUH 0RUHRYHU GHSUHVVLYH LQGLYLGXDOV



678',$36<&+2/2*,&$

DUHSURQHWRZURQJLQIRUPDWLRQSURFHVVLQJ HYLGHQWLQWKHLUH[DJJHUDWLRQRIWKHLUSURE OHPVDQGJHQHUDOL]DWLRQRILQGLYLGXDOQHJD WLYH H[SHULHQFHV HYLGHQW IURP VWDWHPHQWV OLNHQRERG\OLNHVPH (6ROOURYDQG76ROOUHPSKD VL]HGWKDWDSHUVRQDOLW\FDQRSWLPDOO\IXQF WLRQ RQO\ ZKHQ GLIIHUHQW DVSHFWV RI SHU VRQDOLW\ DUH LQWHJUDWHG LQWR D UHODWLYHO\ KDUPRQLRXV XQLW $FFRUGLQJ WR WKHLU ILQG LQJV PRUH LQWHJUDWHG LQGLYLGXDOV DUH PRUH SURDFWLYH WKHLU VHOIDVVHVVPHQW LV PRUH SRVLWLYHDQGWKH\DUHOHVVQHXURWLF (6]RELRYSRLQWHGRXWWKDWIDPL O\ VWUXFWXUH FDQ KDYH D VLJQLILFDQW LQIOX HQFH RQ DQ LQGLYLGXDO
V LQWHOOHFWXDO GH YHORSPHQW DQG FUHDWLYH SHUIRUPDQFH 7KH SUHVHQFHRIERWKSDUHQWVDQGWKHQXPEHURI FKLOGUHQLQWKHIDPLO\DUHSUHGLFWRUVWKDWDQ LQGLYLGXDOUHODWHVWRSHUVRQDOH[SHULHQFHRI KDSSLQHVV DV SHUPDQHQW OLIH VDWLVIDFWLRQ LW LV PDLQO\ DFFHOHUDWLRQ RI WKH LQWHOOHFWXDO GHYHORSPHQW RI WKH ILUVWERUQ WKDW LV GLV FXVVHG

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

,1)250$7,21352&(66,1* 7+(25<

PLVVLRQDULHV DQG FDQQLEDOV DQG D VFLHQ WLVW VWXG\LQJ WKH UXOHV RI JHQHWLFV IROORZ D FHUWDLQ V\VWHP RI UXOHV WKDW ZH FDOO D SUR

7KH  FRQFHSW RI SHUVRQDO FRQVWUXFWV LV QRWWKHRQO\H[DPSOHRIWKHFRQFHSWRI D OHDUQLQJ KXPDQ 7KH UROH RI OHDUQLQJ LQ HYHU\GD\ OLIH LV DOVR LQFOXGHG LQ  LQ IRUPDWLRQ SURFHVVLQJ WKHRU\ $ 1HZHOO DQG+$6LPRQVD\WKDWPDQLVDFRJ QLWLYHV\VWHPWKDWSURYLGHVVRPHLPSRU WDQW IXQFWLRQV VXFK DV FRPSOH[LW\ RI

JUDP $ SV\FKRORJLVW KDV WKH LPSRUWDQW UROH RI GHVFULELQJ WKLV SURJUDP LQ D FOHDU DQG FRPSOH[ ZD\ VR WKDW WKH LQGLYLGXDO
V EHKDYLRU FDQ EH VXEMHFWHG WR VLPXODWLRQ )DPLOLDULW\ ZLWK WKH SURJUDP PDNHV H[DFW SUHGLFWLRQV DQG H[SODQDWLRQV RI KXPDQ H[SHULHQFH DQG EHKDYLRU SRVVLEOH 0RGHOV SURFHVVHGRQWKLVOHYHOKDYHFRQWULEXWHGWR WKH ILQGLQJ WKDW KXPDQ OHDUQLQJ IROORZV SDUDOOHO UDWKHU WKDQ VHULDO LQIRUPDWLRQ SUR FHVVLQJ 0 6WUHQHF  KDV SRLQWHG RXW WKH UHODWLRQ EHWZHHQ FRJQLWLRQV DQG FRPSOH PHQWDULW\ +H HVSHFLDOO\ HPSKDVL]HG WKH DUJXPHQW RI 1 %RKU RQ FRPSOHPHQWDULW\ DV D JHQHUDO HSLVWHPRORJLFDO FRQFHSW UHOH YDQW QRW RQO\ IRU WKH QXFOHDU WKHRU\ EXW

SHUVRQDOLW\ VKRUW DQG ORQJWHUP PHPRU\ WHPSRUDO UHVWULFWLRQ LQ RSHUDWLQJ ZLWK LQIRUPDWLRQ D WHQGHQF\ WR IXQFWLRQ E\ D FHUWDLQSURJUDPDQGVRRQ7KHVHIXQF WLRQV PRGLI\ KXPDQ EHKDYLRU WR D ODUJH H[WHQW 7KH LQIRUPDWLRQ SURFHVVLQJ DSSURDFK KDV VHYHUDO FKDUDFWHULVWLFV WKDW FDQ EH VXPPD UL]HGLQDIHZDUWLFOHV

678',$36<&+2/2*,&$



DOVR IRU KXPDQ NQRZOHGJH LQ JHQHUDO 7KH YDOXH RI FRPSOHPHQWDULW\ WR SV\FKRORJ\ UHVWVPDLQO\LQLWVFUHDWLRQRIDPHWDWKHRU\ WKDW OHDGV WR WKH H[SODQDWLRQ DQG XQLILFD WLRQRIFRQWURYHUVLDOILQGLQJVDERXWYDULRXV FKDUDFWHULVWLFV RI WKH SV\FKH H[SUHVVHG LQ LQGLYLGXDOWKHRULHV

7KLV  FRQFHSW ZDV DOVR TXLWH  VXFFHVV IXOO\ DSSOLHG WR WUDGLWLRQDO SUREOHPV RI FOLQLFDO SV\FKRORJ\ VXFK DV DQ[LHW\ DQG GHSUHVVLRQ %RWK QHJDWLYH PHQWDO VWDWHV KRZHYHU LQIOXHQFH FRJQLWLYH LQIRUPDWLRQ SURFHVVLQJ LQ D VXUSULVLQJO\ GLIIHUHQW PDQ QHU = 5XLVHORY DQG $ 3URNRSNRY

+80$1$&7,9,7<,1&2*1,7,21

 SRLQWHG RXW WKDW KXPDQ FRJQLWLRQ FDQ DOVR EH LQIOXHQFHG E\ FRXQWHUIDFWXDO

$W ILUVW FRJQLWLYH SV\FKRORJLVWV XQGHU VWRRG PDQ DV D SDVVLYH RUJDQLVP WKDW PH FKDQLFDOO\ SURFHVVHV H[WHUQDO LPSXOVHV

WKLQNLQJDPDQQHURIWKLQNLQJDERXWZKDW FRXOGKDYHEHHQLIDGLIIHUHQWDOWHUQDWLYHWR WKHDQWHFHGHQWKDSSHQHGDVRSSRVHGWRWKH RQH WKDW UHDOO\ KDSSHQHG DQG LI WKH VLWXD WLRQZRXOGKDYHKDGDGLIIHUHQWRXWFRPHRU WKH VDPH DV LW DFWXDOO\ WXUQHG RXW WR EH GLIIHUHQW RU VDPH FRQVHTXHQW 8VXDOO\ SDVW VLWXDWLRQV DUH DQDO\]HG D WULJJHU IRU WKLV PDQQHU RI WKLQNLQJ YHU\ RIWHQ EHLQJ IDLOXUHWRUHDFKDVHWJRDO

/DWHUWKH\TXHVWLRQHGWKLVDVVXPSWLRQ,W LV SRVVLEOH IRU H[DPSOH WR GHVFULEH LQ H[ SHULPHQW KRZ H[SHFWDWLRQ LQIOXHQFHV KX PDQ SHUFHSWLRQ DQG PHPRU\ ,QIRUPDWLRQ SURFHVVLQJ XSZDUGV LV GLUHFWO\ UHJXODWHG E\ RXWVLGH LPSXOVHV ZKHUHDV SURFHVVLQJ GRZQZDUGV LV UHJXODWHG E\ ZKDW WKH LQGLYLGXDO EULQJV LQWR WKH VLWXDWLRQ HJ H[SHFWDWLRQLQIOXHQFHVWKURXJKFRQWH[WDQG SDVW H[SHULHQFH $Q H[DPSOH RI GRZQ ZDUGSURFHVVLQJLVWKDWLIWKHZRUGZHOO LVQRWSULQWHGLQEROGLWLVHDVLHUWRUHDGLQ WKH VHQWHQFH , KRSH \RX DUH  WKDQ DV D VLQJOH ZRUG &RJQLWLYH SURFHVVHV RIWHQ LQFOXGHWKHLQWHUVHFWLRQRIERWKSURFHVVHV 7KH FRJQLWLYH DSSURDFK FDQ DOVR EH DS SURSULDWHO\ DSSOLHG WR WUDGLWLRQDO ILHOGV RI SV\FKRORJ\ 'HYHORSPHQWDO SV\FKRORJ\

&20387(56$1'&2*1,7,9( 352&(66(6

&RJQLWLYH

SV\FKRORJ\

DOVR

FRRSHUDWHV

ZLWK FRPSXWHU VFLHQFH 7KH FHQWUDO FRQ FHSW FRPSXWHU SURFHVVLQJ GHVFULEHV QRW RQO\ QXPHULFDO FDOFXODWLRQV DGGLWLRQ

PXOWLSOLFDWLRQ HWF EXW LQ D PRUH JHQHUDO ZD\ ZRUNLQJ ZLWK V\PEROV DOVR +XPDQ FRJQLWLRQV DSSHDU WR EH DQDORJRXV WR FRP SXWHU WHFKQRORJ\ &RPSXWHUV DV ZHOO DV KXPDQV UHFHLYH LQIRUPDWLRQ XVH YDULRXV ZD\V RI LQIRUPDWLRQ SURFHVVLQJ DQG SUR GXFH RXWSXWV 7KXV LW LV RQO\ QDWXUDO IRU SV\FKRORJLVWV WR XVH FRPSXWHUV IRU VLPX ODWLRQ RI KXPDQ FRJQLWLRQV &RPSXWHU

IRUH[DPSOHLVLQWHUHVWHGLQKRZFRJQLWLYH SURFHVVHV FKDQJH ZLWK DJH ZKHWKHU WKH\ GHFUHDVH RU LQFUHDVH LQ TXDOLW\ :H FDQ DOVR DVN KRZ WKH FRJQLWLYH LPDJHV RI WKH ZRUOG DURXQG XV GHYHORS LQ FKLOGKRRG DQG KRZ WKH\ DUH UHODWHG WR D FKLOG
V EHKDYLRU DQGDELOLWLHV(YHQ-3LDJHWRQHRI WKHIRXQGHUVRIGHYHORSPHQWDOSV\FKRORJ\ UHIHUV WR WKH EDVLF SULQFLSOHV RI FRJQLWLYH SV\FKRORJ\)URPWKHLQIRUPDWLRQSURFHVV LQJSHUVSHFWLYHVRFLDOSV\FKRORJ\DVVHVVHV WRSLFV VXFK DV VRFLDO LQWHUDFWLRQ IRUPLQJ RI DWWLWXGHV DQG D V\VWHP RI EHOLHIV WR QDPHEXWDIHZ

VLPXODWLRQ LV QRW WKH VDPH DV DUWLILFLDO LQWHOOLJHQFH $UWLILFLDO LQWHOOLJHQFH VWXGLHV WKH XVH RI FRPSXWHUV IRU WDVN PDQDJHPHQW ZKHUH LQWHOOLJHQFH LV QHFHVVDU\ KRZHYHU FRPSXWHU VLPXODWLRQ LV XVHG IRU VROYLQJ PRUH VSHFLILF JRDOV WKDQ FRPSOHWLQJ WDVNV LQ WKH VDPH PDQQHU DV KXPDQV GR ,I WKH WKHRU\ RI FRJQLWLYH SHUIRUPDQFH LV H[DFWO\



678',$36<&+2/2*,&$

GHILQHG DQG VXIILFLHQWO\ FOHDU LW FDQ EH FDUULHGRXWRQDFRPSXWHU ,I FRJQLWLYH SV\FKRORJ\ EHORQJV WR

LQWHUHVWHGLQWKHVWXG\RIGLYLGHGDWWHQWLRQ DEVHQWPLQGHGQHVVDQGYLJLODQFH $WWHQWLRQ LV SDLG WR WKH DQDO\VLV RI WKLQN LQJ DQG SUREOHP VROYLQJ HJ ORJLFDO ULGGOHV EXW DOVR FRPSOH[ SUREOHPV UHVHP EOLQJ UHDOOLIH VLWXDWLRQV UHDVRQLQJ DQG VXEMHFWLYHDVVHVVPHQW

SV\FKRORJ\ WKHQ LW EHORQJV WR D PRUH JHQHUDO LQWHUGLVFLSOLQDU\ ILHOG RI VFLHQFH DVZHOODQGVXFKLVFRJQLWLYHVFLHQFH7KLV FDWHJRU\ LQFOXGHV QHXURSV\FKRORJ\ RU

EUDLQ VFLHQFHV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 VWXGLHG KRZ UHVSRQGHQWV VROYH SUREOHPV RQ D FRQWLQX XPEHWZHHQSRRUO\DQGZHOOGHILQHGSURE OHPV :HOOGHILQHG SUREOHPV LQFOXGH D FOHDUVWDUWLQJDQGILQLVKLQJSRLQWGULYHQE\ FHUWDLQ UXOHV ZKLOH UXOHV IRU GHWHUPLQLQJ WKH EHJLQQLQJ DQG HQG RI SRRUO\ GHILQHG SUREOHPVDUHVLJQLILFDQWO\YDJXHU5HVSRQ GHQWV FRQIURQWHG ZLWK SRRUO\ DQG ZHOO GHILQHG SUREOHPV XVHG VHYHUDO VWUDWHJLHV $OJRULWKP LV D PHWKRGLFDO DSSURDFK DQD O\]LQJWKHH[DFWVHWRIUXOHVWKDWVXPPDUL]H WKH SRVVLEOH SUREOHP FKDUDFWHULVWLFV 7KLV SURFHVV LV TXLWH DUGXRXV GHVSLWH LWV KLJK SUHFLVLRQ $ IDVWHU EXW OHVV DFFXUDWH DS SURDFK LV WKH KHXULVWLF RQH EDVHG RQ WKH VLPLODULW\ RI WDVNV +HXULVWLFV UHO\ RQ VKRUW VHJPHQWV GHULYHG IURP H[SHULHQFH ,Q 352%/(062/9,1*

&KRPVN\ HVSHFLDOO\ LQ KLV HVVD\V RQ WKH GHHSVWUXFWXUHRIODQJXDJHV 6WXGLHVRUJDQL]HGE\FRJQLWLYHSV\FKROR JLVWV FRQWULEXWHG WR D VLJQLILFDQW LQFUHDVH LQ NQRZOHGJH LQ WKH WUDGLWLRQDO ILHOGV RI H[SHULPHQWDO DQG JHQHUDO SV\FKRORJ\ HJ SHUFHSWLRQ PHPRU\ DWWHQWLRQ WKLQNLQJ DQG SUREOHP VROYLQJ WRR 2QH RI WKHLU ILQGLQJV VKRZHG WKDW LW LV QHFHVVDU\ WR FKRRVHDGLIIHUHQWDSSURDFKWRWKHVWXG\RI GLIIHUHQW IRUPV RI PHPRU\ 7KHUH LV IRU H[DPSOHQRZD\ZHFDQDYRLGGLVWLQJXLVK LQJ EHWZHHQ VHQVRU\ ZRUNLQJ DQG ORQJ WHUP PHPRU\ HSLVRGLF DQG VHPDQWLF ZKLFK KDYH VLJQLILFDQWO\ GLIIHUHQW FKDUDF WHULVWLFV DQG IXQFWLRQV :H FDQ FRQFOXGH WKDWWKHUHDUHVRPHSUREOHPVUHJDUGLQJWKH HIIHFW RI WKHVH IRUPV RI PHPRU\ LQ HYHU\ GD\ OLIH HJ XQUHOLDEOH PHPRU\ RI ZLW QHVVHV SURVSHFWLYH DQG DXWRELRJUDSKLFDO PHPRU\ ,Q WKH VWXG\ RI DWWHQWLRQ FRJQL WLYHSV\FKRORJ\FRQFHQWUDWHVPDLQO\RQWKH DQDO\VLV RI LQWHQWLRQDOO\ GLIIXVHG DWWHQWLRQ HVSHFLDOO\ IRU WKH SHUFHSWLRQ RI DFRXVWLF RU YLVXDO LQIRUPDWLRQ UHODWHG WR GLVUXSWLYH VLJQDOV 1HYHUWKHOHVV UHVHDUFKHUV DUH DOVR

DGGLWLRQ WR VDYLQJ WLPH ' .DKQHPDQ HW DO  IRXQG WKDW KHXULVWLFV PD\ DIIHFW WKH DFFXUDF\ RI WKH UHVSRQGHQW
V RSLQLRQV 5HSODFLQJ VSHHG ZLWK DFFXUDF\ LV QRW DO ZD\V WKH EHVW VWUDWHJ\ IRU VROYLQJ SURE OHPV DQG WKHUHIRUH WKH VWXG\ RI SUREOHP VROYLQJ DQG GHFLVLRQPDNLQJ H[SDQGHG

IURP WKH KXPDQ FRQWH[W LQWR WKDW RI DUWLIL FLDOLQWHOOLJHQFH$, $,LVDUHVHDUFKDUHDRIFRJQLWLYHVFLHQFH ZLWK VWURQJ OLQNV WR WKH FRPSXWHU PHWD SKRU $PRQJ RWKHU REMHFWLYHV $, UH VHDUFKHUV IRFXVHG RQ WKH GHJUHH WR ZKLFK FRPSXWHUSURJUDPVFDQVLPXODWHLQWHOOHFWX

678',$36<&+2/2*,&$



DO IXQFWLRQV DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKH KXPDQ PLQG 3KLORVRSKHUV DV ZHUH 5 'HVFDUWHV DQG - /D 0HWWULH VWUXJJOHG ZLWK WKH UHOD WLRQVKLS RI PDFKLQHV DQG KXPDQ WKLQNLQJ +RZHYHU - YRQ 1HXPDQQ ODWHU SRLQWHG RXW WKDW D SURJUDP PD\ EH FRQWUROOHG E\ LQVWUXFWLRQ DQG VWRUHG LQ WKH LQWHUQDO

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 7KH DERYHPHQWLRQHG H[DPSOHV VKRZ

PHPRU\RIDFRPSXWHU )URP WKH SV\FKRORJLFDO SHUVSHFWLYH WKH FRQWULEXWLRQRI$1HZHOODQG+$6LPRQ  LV RI KLJK YDOXH 'HVSLWH WKH IDFW WKDW DOWKRXJK DV HPSOR\HHV RI 5DQG &RU SRUDWLRQ LQ WKH V WKH\ ZHUH RULJLQDOO\ LQWHUHVWHG LQ VROYLQJ JHRPHWULF SUREOHPV DQG H[SHUW FKHVV SUREOHPV WKH\ ODWHU FRQ FHQWUDWHGRQWKHDUWLILFLDOHYLGHQFHRIORJLF WKHRUHPV $V LV NQRZQ WKH\ FUHDWHG D SURJUDP FDOOHG /RJLF 7KHRULVW ZKLFK

VROYHG SUREOHPV RI V\PEROLF ORJLF VHW E\ $1 :KLWHKHDG DQG % 5XVVHOO LQ WKHLU FODVVLF PRQRJUDSK 3ULQFLSLD 0DWKHPDWLFD  ,QGHHG WKH /RJLF 7KHRULVW SUHV HQWHGH[DFWVROXWLRQVWRWKHRUHPVZKLOH VROYLQJ VRPH RI WKHP ODVWHG OHVV WKDQ D PLQXWH $ 1HZHOO DQG +$ 6LPRQ ODWHU XSJUDGHG WKH /RJLF 7KHRULVW WR D PRUH DGYDQFHG SURJUDP WKH *HQHUDO 3UREOHP 6ROYHU*36%\UHGXFLQJWKHSUREOHPVWR D YDULHW\ RI VXEJRDOV WKH *36 ZDV

WKDW WKH PDMRULW\ RI IDOODFLHV FRQFHUQ GH GXFWLYH WKLQNLQJ ,W LV JHQHUDOO\ DFFHSWHG WKDWGHGXFWLRQVSOD\DNH\UROHLQWKLQNLQJ 7KH\ VHUYH WR IRUPXODWH SODQV DQG DVVHVV DFWLYLWLHV GHWHUPLQH FRQVHTXHQFHV DV

VXFFHVVIXO LQ VROYLQJ FU\SWDULWKPHWLF SURE OHPV ,QGHHG WKH VHOHFWHG DUWLILFLDO LQWHOOL JHQFH SURJUDPV ZHUH PRUH HIILFLHQW DQG PRUH DFFXUDWH WKDQ SHRSOH LQ FRJQLWLYH DUHDV VXFK DV ZHDWKHU IRUHFDVWV GHWHFWLQJ VRXUFHVRIRLORUGLDJQRVLVLQGHILQHGPHGL FDODUHDV

VXPSWLRQVDQGK\SRWKHVHVWRLQWHUSUHWDQG IRUPXODWH LQVWUXFWLRQV UXOHV DQG JHQHUDO SULQFLSOHV WR VHDUFK IRU DUJXPHQWV HYDOX DWH GDWD DQG GHFLGH EHWZHHQ FRPSHWLQJ WKHRULHVDQGVROYHSUREOHPV$ZRUOGZLWK RXW GHGXFWLRQ ZRXOG EH D ZRUOG ZLWKRXW VFLHQFH WHFKQRORJ\ ODZV VRFLDO FRQYHQ

&2*1,7,9()$//$&,(6

WLRQVDQGFXOWXUH 7KHVH IDOODFLHV UHVXOW IURP WKH IDFW WKDW

(YHU\GD\ PHQWDO RSHUDWLRQV DV ZHOO DV WKH IRUPXODWLRQ RI DUJXPHQWV RIWHQ OHDG WR IDOODFLHV LQ UHDVRQLQJ )DOODF\ LV D VWDWH PHQW RU FODLP LQ ZKLFK WKH REVHUYHU GRHV QRW SHUFHLYH WKH UHDO VLWXDWLRQ EXW LWV ELDVHG IRUP 3V\FKRORJLFDO VRXUFHV RI IDO

KXPDQVFDQQRWEHUHJDUGHGVROHO\DVUDWLR QDO EHLQJV 7KH\ RIWHQ VHHN WR DFKLHYH WKH LPSRVVLEOHRUWKH\EHKDYHLQDPDQQHUWKDW E\ QR PHDQV VHUYHV WKHLU EHVW LQWHUHVWV +RZHYHU WKLV GRHV QRW PHDQ WKDW KXPDQV DUH  XQDEOH WR WKLQN UDWLRQDOO\ HYHQ  LI



678',$36<&+2/2*,&$

WKHLU EHKDYLRU GRHV QRW DOZD\V VKRZ VXFK VLJQV $FFRUGLQJ WR 31 -RKQVRQ/DLUG DQG 50- %\UQH 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 ZKLFK FDQ OHDG WR JUHDWHU VHOI UHIOHFWLRQ RQ IDOODFLHV LQ UDWLRQDO WKLQNLQJ ,W LV DOVR XVHIXO WR FRQVLGHU WKH FRQFHSW RI PHWDGHGXFWLRQV RU VWDWHPHQWV JHQHUDOO\ HQVXULQJWKHFRUUHFWQHVVRULQFRUUHFWQHVVRI SURSRVLWLRQV 0HWDGHGXFWLRQV KDYH RFFX SLHG D FUXFLDO UROH LQ VKDSLQJ ORJLF DV D ILHOGRIVFLHQFH'HWHFWLQJFDXVHVWKDWJLYH ULVH WR FRJQLWLYH IDOODFLHV PD\ ZRUN WR ZDUGVDKLJKHUYDOLGLW\RIFRJQLWLYHRSHUD WLRQV $Q LPSRUWDQW UROH DPRQJ WKHP LV RFFXSLHG E\ SHUVRQDOLW\ FKDUDFWHULVWLFV

WKHXQFHUWDLQW\RIWKHZRUOGDURXQGXVDQG PDLQWDLQVWKHFRQWLQXLW\RISHUVRQDOEHOLHIV WKDWPD\QRWFRUUHVSRQGWRUHDOLW\ 9 %DRY HW DO  HPSKDVL]HG WKDW FRJQLWLYH ELDVHV DOVR RFFXU LQ WKH FDVH RI ORVV DYHUVLRQ %DVHG RQ WKLV SKHQRPHQRQ LQGLYLGXDOV H[SHFW WR H[SHULHQFH JUHDWHU KHGRQLF LPSDFW DIWHU D ORVV WKDQ DIWHU D JDLQ RI HTXDO YDOXH DOWKRXJK WKH\ DUH PRUH FRQFHUQHG DERXW QHJDWLYH HPRWLRQV DIWHU SRVVLEOH IXWXUH ORVVHV WKDQ DERXW H[SHFWHG VDWLVIDFWLRQ DIWHU SRVVLEOH IXWXUH JDLQ 7KHUH ZHUH DOVR LQWHUFXOWXUDO GLIIHU HQFHVEHWZHHQWKH6ORYDN3ROLVKDQG%ROL YLDQSRSXODWLRQVDPSOHV

&2*1,7,9(67</(6

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

PRWLYDWLRQ VRFLDO SUHVVXUH JURXS WKLQN LQJ RU DWWLWXGHV 7KHUHIRUH WKH VWXG\ RI WKHVH IDOODFLHV FDQ SURYLGH YDOLG LQIRUPD WLRQ DERXW WKH ELDV RI ERWK UDWLRQDO DQG LUUDWLRQDOWKLQNLQJ5XLVHO $FFRUGLQJ WR - 9URVW HW DO D E UHDOLW\ LV XVXDOO\ VLJQLILFDQWO\ DIIHFWHG E\ ELDVHGYHULILFDWLRQDVDWHQGHQF\RISHRSOH WRSUHIHULQIRUPDWLRQWKDWOHQGVFUHGHQFHWR WKHLUDVSLUDWLRQVUHJDUGOHVVRIZKHWKHULWLV EDVHGRQWUXWKRUQRW7KLVWHQGHQF\FDQEH LOOXVWUDWHG E\ D ELDVHG HVWLPDWH RI WKH XQ HPSOR\PHQW UDWH ORQJWHUP VLFN SRRU RU SHRSOH ERUQ DEURDG LQ DFFRUGDQFH ZLWK WKHLUEHOLHIV%LDVHGYHULILFDWLRQPD\DFWDV DSURWHFWLYHFRJQLWLYHILOWHUZKLFKUHGXFHV

LQGHSHQGHQW RI ILHOG IROORZ WKH RSSRVLWH FRXUVH &HUWDLQ FRJQLWLYH VW\OHV PD\ VLJ QLILFDQWO\ DIIHFW LQGLYLGXDO EHKDYLRU )RU H[DPSOH LW ZDV IRXQG WKDW FKLOGUHQ LQGH SHQGHQW RI ILHOG XQOLNH ILHOG GHSHQGHQW FKLOGUHQ DUH EHWWHU DZDUH RI WKHLU SRVLWLRQ DQG UROH LQ WKH IDPLO\ PRUH RIWHQ H[SUHVV WKHLU GHVLUHV DQG FRPSHWH ZLWK RWKHUV DQG

678',$36<&+2/2*,&$



KDYH GHYHORSHG EHWWHU GHIHQVH DQG FRQWURO PHFKDQLVPV DQG DUH PRUH LQGHSHQGHQW 6DUPQ\6FKXOOHU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 LW LV DOVR QHFHVVDU\ WR FRQVLGHU WKH HIIHFW RI LQWHOOHFWXDO VW\OHV ZKLFK GHILQH KRZ D

SDUWLFXODU  SHUVRQDOLW\ PDQLIHVWV LWVHOI  LQ WKH SURFHVV RI WKLQNLQJ DQG EHKDYLRU $PRQJ LQWHOOHFWXDO VW\OHV WKH PRVW LPSRU WDQW DUH PRQDUFKLFDO WKH RULHQWDWLRQ WR ZDUGV D VLQJOH JRDO RU QHHG KLHUDUFKLFDO FODVVLILFDWLRQ RI WKH JRDOV WKDW WKH LQGL YLGXDO ZDQWV WR DFKLHYH DFFRUGLQJ WR WKHLU LPSRUWDQFH ROLJDUFKLF SUREOHPV ZLWK

DFKLHYLQJ WKH JRDOV ZKLFK DUH RIWHQ FRQ WUDGLFWRU\ DQG DQDUFKLF GRPLQDWHG E\ XQV\VWHPDWLF DQG HYDVLYH SUREOHP VROY LQJ $FFRUGLQJ WR , 6DUPQ\6FKXOOHU 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

UHIOHFWLYH DQG OLQHDU WKLQNLQJ ,QWXLWLYH UHVSRQGHQWV DUH PRUH HIIHFWLYH LQ WDVNV UHTXLULQJ TXLFN JHQHUDWLRQ RI LGHDV DQG VROXWLRQV

&2*1,7,9(6&+(0(6

&RQFHSWVWKDWIRFXVQRWRQO\RQWKHRUJD QL]DWLRQDOQHWZRUNRILQIRUPDWLRQIURPWKH ZRUOG DURXQG XV EXW DOVR RQ FUHDWLQJ WKHLU FRJQLWLYH UHSUHVHQWDWLRQV LQ PHPRU\ KDYH EHFRPHSDUWVRIFRJQLWLYHSV\FKRORJ\7KH PRVW LPSRUWDQW FRQFHSW LQ WKLV FRQWH[W LV FRJQLWLYH VFKHPHV 6FKHPHV DUH SHUVLVWHQW SDWWHUQV RI DFWLYLW\ WKDW PDQ JUDGXDOO\ DFTXLUHV WKURXJK UHJXODU UHSHWLWLRQ RU KDV OHDUQHG IURP RWKHUV $FFRUGLQJ WR )& %DUWOHWW  VFKHPHV DUH DEVWUDFW QR WLRQV WKDW LQIOXHQFH SHUFHSWLRQ DQG LQ



678',$36<&+2/2*,&$

IRUPDWLRQ

SURFHVVLQJ

DQG

UHFRQVWUXFW

E UHPHPEHUV EHKDYLRU DVVRFLDWHG ZLWK WKHSUREOHPUHODWLYHO\EHWWHUZKLFKPHDQV OHDUQLQJ F SUHGLFWV IXWXUH EHKDYLRU LQ WKH DERYH DUHDV G UHMHFWV LQIRUPDWLRQ QRW LQ DFFRUGDQFH ZLWK WKH VFKHPH HJ LI KHVKH VHHV

NQRZOHGJHVWRUHGLQPHPRU\$VQRWHGE\ - 3LDJHW 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

KLPKHUVHOIDVDJRRGVWXGHQWKHFRQVLGHUV FXUUHQWIDLOXUHDVFRLQFLGHQWDO H HYDOXDWHV QHZ LQIRUPDWLRQ LQ WHUPV RI WKLVVFKHPH 0DQ\ VLWXDWLRQV RI HYHU\GD\ OLIH DUH UHJXODWHG QRW RQO\ E\ FRJQLWLYH VFKHPHV EXW DOVR E\ WKHLU VSHFLDO IRUP QDPHO\ VFHQDULRV 5 6FKDQN DQG 5 $EHOVRQ

 FRQVLGHUHG VFHQDULRV WR EH D VWH UHRW\SHG VHTXHQFH RI DFWLRQV WKDW GHILQH D ZHOONQRZQ VLWXDWLRQ 6FHQDULRV GR QRW MXVW IROORZ JHQXLQH NQRZOHGJH VWRUHG LQ ORQJWHUP PHPRU\ EXW DOVR VXEMHFWLYHO\ ELDVHG DQG IDEULFDWHG GDWD ,QGLYLGXDOV DFTXLUH KXQGUHGV RI VFHQDULRV WKURXJK

FKDUDFWHULVWLF RI SHRSOH ZKR EHORQJ WR FHUWDLQ VRFLDO DQG QDWLRQDO JURXSV )& %DUWOHWW 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
V RZQ SHUVRQ 7KHVHVFKHPHVIXQFWLRQDVWKHEDVLVIRUWKH LQWHUSUHWDWLRQ DQG FDWHJRUL]DWLRQ RI QHZ LQIRUPDWLRQ 7KH\ IRFXV WKHLU DWWHQWLRQ RQ VSHFLILF W\SHV RI LQIRUPDWLRQ DQG WKH\ FRQWURO WKHLU RUJDQL]DWLRQ DQG IXUWKHU SUR FHVVLQJ ,I DQ LQGLYLGXDO KDV FUHDWHG D VFKHPH RI VHOI IRU DQ DUHD RI NQRZOHGJH HJ LQ VFKRRO LW FDQ EH H[SHFWHG WKDW KHVKH D SURFHVVHV WKLV LQIRUPDWLRQ HJ UHD VRQLQJ DQG GHFLVLRQPDNLQJ UDWKHU HDVLO\ DQGZLWKFHUWDLQW\

GLUHFWRUPHGLDWHGH[SHULHQFHIRUH[DPSOH D VFULSW RI D UHVWDXUDQW YLVLW IXQHUDO DLU WUDYHO WKH WHD FHUHPRQ\ LQ -DSDQ DQG WKH OLNH$VSDUWRIJHQHUDOL]HGUHDOLW\VFHQDU LRV DIIHFW WKH SURFHVVLQJ RI VHPDQWLF FRQ WHQW ,W LV QRW SRVVLEOH WR GHVFULEH LQ GHWDLO DOO GHWDLOV RI WKH SORW ZKHQ GLVSOD\LQJ D FHUWDLQHSLVRGH7KHUHFHLYHULVH[SHFWHGWR FRPSOHPHQW WKH PLVVLQJ LQIRUPDWLRQ WR EULGJH WKH JDS LQ WKH IORZ RI NQRZO HGJH - .RUGDRY  SRLQWHG RXW WKH VLJQLILFDQW HIIHFW RI HPRWLRQDO VFKHPHV DV VXEFRQVFLRXV GHHS FRJQLWLYH VWUXFWXUHV

WKDW LQIOXHQFH PHQWDO SURFHVVHV RU DV SR WHQWLDOO\SRVLWLYHPHDQVRIHQKDQFLQJPHQ WDO TXDOLW\ RI OLIH 7KLV UROH LV RFFXSLHG HVSHFLDOO\ E\ SRVLWLYH HPRWLRQDO VFKHPHV HYHQ GXULQJ WKH SUHYHUEDO VWDJH ZKLFK ODWHU PD\ EH IROORZHG E\ SRVLWLYH FRJQL WLYH VFKHPHV DQG WKXV PD\ FRQWULEXWH WR WKH RYHUDOO SRVLWLYH GHYHORSPHQW RI WKH LQGLYLGXDO

678',$36<&+2/2*,&$



DQDO\]LQJ 7+(&2*1,7,9(36<&+2/2*<2) 6&,(1&(

ODERUDWRU\

VWXGLHV

REVHUYLQJ

VFLHQWLVWV LQ HYHU\GD\ OLIH LQYHVWLJDWLQJ VFLHQFH DV D IRUP RI SUREOHP VROYLQJ RU PDNLQJ GHWDLOHG VWXGLHV RI VFLHQWLVWV
 GLD

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
V DQDO\VHV RI (LQVWHLQ
V PHWK RGV RI SUREOHP VROYLQJ DQG 3LDJHW
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

ULHV $Q H[DPSOH RI WKH DQDO\VLV RI VFLHQWLVWV

ELRJUDSKLHV LV WKH UHVHDUFK RI +( *UXEHU  ZKR VWDWHG WKDW WKH FUHDWLYH IRU PXODWLRQ RI WKH HYROXWLRQ WKHRU\ E\

&KDUOHV 'DUZLQ ZDV WKH UHVXOW RI WHQVLRQ EHWZHHQ WKH SULQFLSOH RI FRQVHUYDWLRQ WKH VDPH QXPEHU RI VSHFLHV DQG WKH SULQFLSOH RIEDODQFH 2WKHU H[SHUWV FRQGXFWHG ODERUDWRU\ VWX GLHV RI WKH DFWLYLWLHV RI VFLHQWLVWV )RU H[ DPSOH 3 :DVRQ DQG 31 -RKQVRQ/DLUG  XVHG D WDVN EDVHG RQ JHQHUDWLQJ WULDGILJXUHVRULJLQDOO\XVHGLQUHVHDUFKRQ LQGXFWLYH WKLQNLQJ 7KH\ KDYH UHJLVWHUHG WHQGHQFLHV RI LQGLYLGXDOV WR IDYRU GDWD FRQILUPLQJ WKHLU RZQ K\SRWKHVHV DQG WR LJQRUH WKH UHTXLUHPHQWV WR WHVW K\SRWKHVHV E\ QHJDWLYH ILQGLQJV 7KHUHIRUH ILQGLQJ VXEMHFWLYH DVSHFWV WR WKH VROXWLRQV RI FRJ QLWLYHWDVNVLVRQHRIWKHLPSRUWDQWWDVNVRI DFRJQLWLYHSV\FKRORJ\RIVFLHQFH 6RPHH[SHUWVIRFXVRQH[SORULQJVFLHQWLI LF  WKLQNLQJ LQ UHDO WHUPV )RU  H[DPSOH . 'XQEDU  UHFRUGHG WKH DFWLYLW\ RI IRXU LQGHSHQGHQW UHVHDUFK ODERUDWRULHV RI PROHFXODU ELRORJ\ GXULQJ D SHULRG RI RQH \HDUDQGIRXQGWKDWWKHREWDLQHGGDWDDOORZ XV WR XQGHUVWDQG WKH SURFHVV RI VFLHQWLILF WKLQNLQJ %DVHG RQ SUHOLPLQDU\ UHVXOWV KH REVHUYHG WKDW DQDORJ\ SOD\V D FUXFLDO UROH LQ WKH HYDOXDWLRQ DQG GLVVHPLQDWLRQ RI K\SRWKHVHV 6RPH RI WKH GHVFULEHG DQDOR JRXV PHFKDQLVPV UHVHPEOH WKH VWUDWHJLHV RI-DPHV&OHUN0D[ZHOOLQIRUPXODWLQJWKH WKHRU\RIHOHFWURPDJQHWLFILHOG ' .XONDUQL DQG +$ 6LPRQ  IR FXVHG RQ WKH DQDO\VLV RI VWHSV FDOOLQJ WR PLQGWKHGLIIHUHQWSKDVHVRISUREOHPVROY LQJ 7KH\ EDVHG WKHLU ZRUN RQ KLVWRULFDO DQDO\VHV RI WKH UHFRUGHG DFWLYLWLHV RI WKH



678',$36<&+2/2*,&$

ELRFKHPLVW +DQV .UHEV GXULQJ WKH WLPH RI KLV GLVFRYHU\ WKDW LV WRGD\ NQRZQ DV WKH .UHEV PHWDEROLF F\FOH 7KH\ VLPXODWHG .UHEV
H[SHULPHQWVXVLQJERWKJHQHUDODQG VSHFLILF KHXULVWLFV WKDW ZHUH NQRZQ WR EH XVHG E\ +DQV .UHEV KLPVHOI 7KURXJK PDQ\ H[SHULPHQWV WKH\ GHVFULEHG VLPX ODWLRQ DFWLYLWLHV WKDW VLJQLILFDQWO\ UHVHP EOHGWKHVWUDWHJLHVRI.UHEV $ ULFK VRXUFH RI LQIRUPDWLRQ IRU FRJQL WLYH SV\FKRORJLVWV RI VFLHQFH DUH WKH GLDU\ HQWULHV RI VFLHQWLVWV ([DPSOHV LQFOXGH WKH GDLO\ UHFRUGV RI WKH IDPRXV (QJOLVK SK\VL FLVW 0LFKDHO )DUDGD\ RI WKH WK FHQWXU\ ,Q WKHP VFLHQWLVWV FRXOG LGHQWLI\ )DUDGD\
V UHODWLRQVKLSEHWZHHQKLVUHVHDUFKLQDFRXV WLFV DQG WKH GLVFRYHU\ RI HOHFWURPDJQHWLF LQGXFWLRQLQ 'HVSLWH VRPH HPSLULFDO NQRZOHGJH WKH DQVZHU WR WKH TXHVWLRQ LV WKHUH VRPHWKLQJ HVSHFLDOO\FRJQLWLYHLQVFLHQWLILFWKLQNLQJ" LV TXLWH FRPSOH[ ,Q VRPH UHVSHFWV WKH DQVZHU LV QR 7KH VDPH FRJQLWLYH VWUDWH JLHV VXFK DV SUREOHP VROYLQJ LQGXFWLYH DQG GHGXFWLYH UHDVRQLQJ DQDORJLFDO UHD VRQLQJ RU FRQVLGHUDWLRQ DQG GHFLVLRQ

FDQ EH H[SHFWHG WKH\ EULQJ RSWLPDO HIIL FLHQF\ LQ WKH PDQDJHPHQW RI VFLHQFH WKH HGXFDWLRQ RI IXWXUH VFLHQWLVWV DQG SHUKDSV LQ ZKDW LV WRGD\ PRVW LPSRUWDQW D JHQHUDO XQGHUVWDQGLQJRIWKHDFWLYLWLHVRIVFLHQWLVWV ,QWKHVWFHQWXU\SV\FKRORJ\FRXOGSOD\ D VLPLODU UROH DV DW WKH EHJLQQLQJ RI WKH WKFHQWXU\WKDWLVDSLRQHHURILQWHUHVWLQ VFLHQFHLQJHQHUDO

&2*1,7,216$1',17(//,*(1&(

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 UHJDUGV WKH REWDLQ LQJ RI NQRZOHGJH DV DQ HVVHQWLDO FRPSR QHQW RI LQWHOOLJHQFH $FFRUGLQJ WR KLV ZRUGVLQWHOOLJHQFHLVDFDSDELOLW\DOORZLQJ WKH LQGLYLGXDO WR FRQVWUXFW DQ HIIHFWLYH NQRZOHGJH EDVH EXW DOVR WR VNLOOIXOO\ DQG LQWHOOLJHQWO\ DFW ZLWKLQ D FHUWDLQ DUHD RI H[SHUWLVH 7KH LQWHOOLJHQFH TXRWLHQW LV

PDNLQJ XQGHUOLH QRW RQO\ VFLHQWLILF EXW HYHQ HYHU\GD\ WKLQNLQJ 1HYHUWKHOHVV LW PD\ EH VDLG WKDW VFLHQWLILF FRJQLWLRQ DOVR KDV D VSHFLILF FKDUDFWHU D V\VWHPDWLF SH QHWUDWLRQ RI FXOWXUH KLVWRU\ DQG VRFLDO HQYLURQPHQW RFFXUV ZLWKLQ WKH SURFHVV OHDGLQJWRQHZNQRZOHGJH ,WLVFOHDUWKDWWKHKXPDQFRPPXQLW\VWLOO GRHV QRW XQGHUVWDQG WKH QDWXUH RI VFLHQFH WKH JRRG VLGH RI VFLHQFH ,I PDQ\ SHRSOH VWLOOEHOLHYHWKDWVFLHQFHUHSUHVHQWVWKHEHVW DQG SHUKDSV WKH RQO\ DSSURDFK WR DG GUHVVLQJ WKH PDQ\ HQYLURQPHQWDO VRFLDO PHGLFDO DQG SHUVRQDO SUREOHPV WKDW DULVH IURP SRVWLQGXVWULDO VRFLHW\ WKHQ WKH\

WKHUHIRUHDSUR[\YDULDEOHUHSUHVHQWLQJWKH JUHDWHU SDUW RI WKH H[LVWLQJ NQRZOHGJH RI WKH LQGLYLGXDO SDUWLFXODUO\ ZLWK UHJDUG WR KLVKHU HGXFDWLRQDO QHHGV ,Q RUGHU WR LQ FUHDVH WKH YDOLGLW\ RI WKHVH PHDVXUHPHQWV WKH QHFHVVLW\ IRU WKHLU VWURQJ FURVVFXOWXUDO DGDSWDWLRQEHFRPHVHYLGHQW $FFRUGLQJ WR 9 'RNDO  WKH FRJ QLWLYHLPDJHRIDSHUVRQUHSUHVHQWHGE\WKH

VKRXOG XQGHUVWDQG WKH WRROV WKDW FDQ EH XVHG WR VROYH WKHVH SUREOHPV $OPRVW LP PHGLDWHO\ GLUHFW DSSOLFDWLRQV WR WKH FXO WLYDWLRQ RI VFLHQWLILF HGXFDWLRQ DW DOO OHYHOV

678',$36<&+2/2*,&$



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 ,Q WKH KLVWRULFDO FRQWH[W WZR PDLQ DS SURDFKHV WR WKH VWXG\ RI LQWHOOLJHQFH KDYH IRUPHG DFDGHPLF DQG SUDFWLFDO 7KH DFD GHPLF DSSURDFK IRFXVHV RQ WKH DVVHVVPHQW RI FRJQLWLYH SURFHVVHV DQG VWUXFWXUHV XVHG IRU WKH PDQLSXODWLRQ RI V\PEROV RI WKH JLYHQ FXOWXUH IRU WKH VROXWLRQ RI PDWKH PDWLFDO DQG ORJLFDO SUREOHPV IRU WKH FUH DWLRQ RI FRQFHSWV DW KLJKHU OHYHOV RI

WUDQVIRUPDWLRQRIWKHSULPDU\FDWHJRULHVWR DKLJKHUFRQFHSWXDOOHYHO 7KH SUDFWLFDO DSSURDFK IRFXVHV DWWHQWLRQ RQ WKH LQGLYLGXDO
V DELOLW\ WR DFW LQ DFFRU GDQFH ZLWK WKH H[WHUQDO ZRUOG RI VRFLDO VWUXFWXUHV DQG LQWHUDFWLRQV IXOILOO PXOWLSOH UROHV LQ GLIIHUHQW VLWXDWLRQV HVWDEOLVK DQG PDLQWDLQ LQWHUSHUVRQDO UHODWLRQVKLSV DQG WLHV DFFXUDWHO\ LQWHUSUHW WKH DLPV RI RWKHUV DQG VR RQ 3UDFWLFDO LQWHOOLJHQFH LV XVXDOO\ GHILQHG YHU\ EURDGO\ DV DQ HIIHFWLYH DQG VXFFHVVIXO DGDSWDWLRQ RI LQGLYLGXDOV LQ WKH UHDOZRUOG5XLVHO +XPDQ DGDSWDWLRQ WR WKH HQYLURQPHQW LV VRPHWLPHV SDVVLYH WKH UHTXLUHPHQWV DQG RUGHUV RI WKH VRFLDO HQYLURQPHQW DUH HP EUDFHG SDVVLYHO\ +RZHYHU VXFFHVVIXO

LQGLYLGXDOVGRQRWRQO\DGHTXDWHO\DGDSWWR WKHLUVXUURXQGLQJVWKH\FDQDOVRPRGLI\LW 7KH VXFFHVVIXO VFLHQWLVW ZLOO HQIRUFH KLV RZQ PRGHO RI GHSDUWPHQW PDQDJHPHQW RU D SOD\HU FRQYLQFHV KLV FRDFKHV WKDW DQ RIIHQVLYH VW\OH ZLOO EH PRUH XVHIXO IRU WKH WHDP WKDQ D GHIHQVLYH 7KHUHIRUH VXFFHVV IXOO\ DGDSWHG LQGLYLGXDOV DUH RIWHQ VWXGLHG DQG WKH HVVHQWLDO IHDWXUHV FKDUDFWHUL]LQJ WKHLU EHKDYLRU HJ VXFFHVVIXO YV XQ VXFFHVVIXO SUREOHP VROYHUV H[SHUWV YV QRYLFHVHWFDUHDQDO\]HG 3UDFWLFDO LQWHOOLJHQFH LV XVXDOO\ VLJQLIL FDQWO\LQIOXHQFHGE\WKHOHYHORIWKLQNLQJ 7KH WKLQNLQJ SURFHVV SURYLGHV D G\QDPLF XVH RI LQWHOOLJHQFH LQ UHDO DFWLYLW\ )RU H[DPSOH LQGLYLGXDOV ZLWK DERYHDYHUDJH ,4  GHWHFWHG E\ WUDGLWLRQDO LQWHOOLJHQFH WHVWV PD\ SRVVHVV KLJK DFDGHPLF LQWHOOL JHQFHEXWWKH\PD\QRWEHKDYHLQWHOOLJHQW O\ LI WKH\ FDQQRW XVH WKHLU DELOLWLHV LQ DFFRUGDQFH ZLWK WKH VLWXDWLRQ DQG HQYLURQ PHQW $FFRUGLQJWR9DYRMRYDQG=7%HOR YLRY  WKH DQDO\VLV RI SUDFWLFDO LQWHOOLJHQFHVKRXOGIRFXVRQWKH JIDFWRUDV WKHDELOLW\WRFRSHZLWKFRJQLWLYHFRPSOH[ LW\ DQG VSHFLILF FRPSOH[ LQIRUPDWLRQ SUR

DEVWUDFWLRQIRUSURFHVVLQJDQGPDLQWDLQLQJ RILQIRUPDWLRQLQVKRUWWHUPDQGORQJWHUP PHPRU\DQGWKHOLNH 7KHRUHWLFDO LQWHOOLJHQFH GHYHORSV LQ VWDQ GDUG RIWHQ ZHOOGHILQHG FRQGLWLRQV HJ LQ VFKRRO RU LQ D ODERUDWRU\ HQYLURQPHQW 7UDGLWLRQDO LQWHOOLJHQFH WHVWV DUH YDOLGDWHG DFFRUGLQJ WR DFDGHPLF SHUIRUPDQFH DQG DUH XVXDOO\ UHOLDEOH LQ SUHGLFWLQJ D VWX GHQW
V VXFFHVV LQ VFKRRO 0 *FL  KLJKOLJKWHGWKHUROHRIFDWHJRULFDOJHQHUDO L]DWLRQ RI SULPDU\ FRORUV LQ WKH GHYHORS PHQWRILQWHOOLJHQFHHVSHFLDOO\WKHJUDGXDO



678',$36<&+2/2*,&$

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

&XUUHQWO\ZLVGRPLVDWWKHFHQWHURIDWWHQ WLRQLQWKHVFLHQFHVRIPDQ,QSV\FKRORJ\ WKHFRQFHSWRIZLVGRPHPHUJHGLQUHODWLRQ WR WKH QHZ WUHQGV RI OLIHORQJ GHYHORSPHQW DQGH[WHQVLRQRIKXPDQOLIH2IFRXUVHWKH UHYLYDO RI WKH LVVXH RI ZLVGRP LV QRW MXVW DQLQWHUHVWRISV\FKRORJ\,WLVEHFRPLQJD UHQHZHG WKHRUHWLFDO SUREOHP HYHQ LQ SKL ORVRSK\ HWKLFV WKHRORJ\ FXOWXUDO DQWKUR SRORJ\ DQG HWKQRJUDSK\ ,WV LQIOXHQFH

H[WHQGV DOVR WR WKH QDWXUDO VFLHQFHV ZKHUH LW VKLIWV WKH YLHZ IURP FDXVDO DQG PHFKD QLVWLF H[SODQDWLRQV WR F\EHUQHWLF DQG V\V WHPLFVWUXFWXUHV3ULQFLSOHVVXFKDVKRPHR VWDVLV RU VHOIUHIOHFWLRQ H[SUHVV WKH KLGGHQ ZLVGRPRIQDWXUH ,Q WKH ILQDO GHFDGHV RI WKH ODVW FHQWXU\ UHQHZHG VFLHQWLILF LQWHUHVW LQ ZLVGRP EH FDPH V\PSWRPDWLF RI D VLJQLILFDQW FKDQJH LQWKHW\SHRIWKLQNLQJYDJXHO\FDOOHGSRVW PRGHUQLVP 7KLV FKDQJH ZDV DOVR LQGXFHG E\  DZDUHQHVV RI SHUVRQDOLW\ GLPHQVLRQV WKDWKDYHEHHQFRQVLGHUHGDFFLGHQWDODQG WKHUHIRUH XQZRUWK\ RI VFLHQWLILF LQYHVWLJD WLRQ LQFOXGLQJ WKH VSHFLILF FLUFXPVWDQFHV RI OLIH DV ZHOO DV WKH LPSRUWDQFH RI VRFLDO DQGQDWXUDOHQYLURQPHQW JUDGXDOFRQYHUJHQFHRIWKHKXPDQLWLHV DQG QDWXUDO VFLHQFHV 7KH JDS EHWZHHQ WKHVH WZR GLIIHUHQW DUHDV RI NQRZOHGJH ZRXOG VWLOO DSSHDU WR EH VLJQLILFDQW EXW QHZFRQFHSWVDQGPHWKRGRORJLHVDUHHPHU JLQJWKDWDUHJUDGXDOO\EXLOGLQJEULGJHV ,W LV ZLVGRP WKDW VHHNV WR EULQJ WKH ZRUOGRISKLORVRSK\WKHRORJ\SV\FKRORJ\ DQG WKH EURDGHU UHTXLUHPHQWV RI OLIH WR JHWKHU

DSSURSULDWHO\ WR WKH QHHGV RI D FKDQJLQJ HQYLURQPHQW 7KHUHIRUH WKH FRQVWUXFW RI SUDFWLFDO LQWHOOLJHQFH LV D SURPLVLQJ DW WHPSW WR ZLGHQ WKH DSSOLFDWLRQ RI NQRZO HGJH JDLQHG LQ WKH VWXG\ RI DFDGHPLF LQWHOOLJHQFH LQ YDULRXV ILHOGV RI VRFLDO DQG HFRQRPLFSUDFWLFH ) %DXPJDUWQHU HW DO  SRLQWHG RXW WKH UHODWLRQVKLS EHWZHHQ FRSLQJ DQG HPR WLRQDO LQWHOOLJHQFH 7KH\ IRXQG WKDW LQGL YLGXDOV ZLWK D KLJKHU OHYHO RI WKLV YDULDEOH VKRZ D WHQGHQF\ WR DVVHVV WKH FXUUHQW VLW XDWLRQ DV PRUH GLIILFXOW DQG OHVV FRQWUROOD EOH VR WKH\ JLYH WKHVH VLWXDWLRQV JUHDWHU LPSRUWDQFH WKDQ LQGLYLGXDOV ZLWK ORZHU OHYHOVRIHPRWLRQDOLQWHOOLJHQFH

678',$36<&+2/2*,&$



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

WXDOL]DWLRQ RI ZLVGRP LQ SHUVRQV FRQVLG HUHG ZLVH )URP WKH LQGLYLGXDO SRLQW RI YLHZ KH HVSHFLDOO\ HPSKDVL]HG WKH H[FHS WLRQDO DELOLW\ RI OHQJWK\ FRQFHQWUDWLRQ VSLULWXDO LQVLJKW JDLQLQJ IXOO FRQWURO RYHU RQH
V RZQ ERG\ LQGHSWK XQGHUVWDQGLQJ DQG IHHOLQJ IRU WKH IRUFHV RI QDWXUH FXO WLYDWLRQRIVHOHFWHGYLUWXHVDQGVRFLDOVNLOOV DV  ZHOO DV WKH DELOLW\ WR VXSSUHVV  IHDU ' .RY  GHYHORSHG D FDWHJRU\ RI V\VWHP SV\FKRUHJXODWRUV RI EHKDYLRU DV DQ LQWHJUDWLRQ RI VRPH IDFWRU SURSHUWLHV ZLWK YLUWXHVZHOOHVWDEOLVKHGLQWKHGHYHORSPHQW RI KXPDQLVP DSDUW IURP ZLVGRP WKHVH LQFOXGH FRQVFLHQFH WROHUDQFH SURVRFLDO IHHOLQJWHPSHUDQFHKXPLOLW\HWF :LVGRP UHTXLUHV DFFHSWDQFH RI WKH OLP LWDWLRQV RI RQH
V RZQ NQRZOHGJH 6HOI UHJXODWLRQ ZKLFK LV FUXFLDO IRU ZLVGRP DVVXPHV NQRZOHGJH RI RQHVHOI DQG RQH
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

$FFRUGLQJ WR - .RUGDRY  WKH EDUULHU WR DFKLHYLQJ ZLVGRP LQ SDUWLFXODU LQWKHFRJQLWLYHGLPHQVLRQOLHVLQWKHKLJK LUUDWLRQDOLW\ RI WKLQNLQJ :H FDQ WKHUHIRUH H[SHFW WKDW XQIRXQGHG LUUDWLRQDO IHDUV

QHJDWLYH FRJQLWLYH VHWXSV DQG JHQHUDOL]HG QHJDWLYH H[SHFWDWLRQV DUH DPRQJ WKH OHDVW HIIHFWLYH VWUDWHJLHV IRU DFKLHYLQJ LQGLYLGX DOZLVGRP $V QRWHG E\ , %UH]LQD  DQRWKHU LPSRUWDQW VRXUFH RI LQIRUPDWLRQ DERXW

ZLVGRP LV LPSOLFLW LQIRUPDWLRQ GHULYHG IURP$PD]RQLDQVKDPDQLVP+HKDVWKHUH IRUH DQDO\]HG WKH SKLORVRSKLFDO DQG UHOL JLRXV EDFNJURXQG WR WKH $PD]RQLDQ ZD\ RIJUDVSLQJUHDOLW\DQGDOVRWKHOD\FRQFHS



678',$36<&+2/2*,&$

DEOHVDQGVRFLRFXOWXUDOUHJXODWRUVRIDFWLY &21&/86,216 LW\

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

5HFHLYHG$XJXVW

5()(5(1&(6

%$299%5(=,1$,/(n1,$.$ $QWLFLSDWHG ORVV DYHUVLRQ IRU VPDOO DQG ODUJH

DPRXQWV RI PRQH\ LQ FXOWXUDOO\ GLIIHUHQW VWXGHQW VDPSOHV6WXGLD3V\FKRORJLFD %$57/(77)& 5HPHPEHULQJ$VWXG\LQ H[SHULPHQWDO DQG VRFLDO SV\FKRORJ\ &DPEULGJH &DPEULGJH8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV %$80*$571(5 ) 02/$129 = &+< /29 0  (PRQ LQWHOLJHQFLD YR Y]~DKX NX FRSLQJX,Q,5XLVHO$3URNRSNRY(GV .RJ QLWYQ\ SRUWUW ORYHND SS  %UDWLVODYD 6$3 %(&. $7  &RJQLWLYH WKHUDS\ DQG WKH HPRWLRQDO GLVRUGHUV 1HZ <RUN ,QWHUQDWLRQDO 8QL YHUVLW\3UHVV %5(=,1$ ,  $PD]RQVN {DPDQL]PXV

2VRE\  SRYDRYDQ ]D PGUH D LFK  NRQFHSW PGURVWL ,Q , 5XLVHO $ 3URNRSNRY (GV .RJQLWYQ\SRUWUWORYHND SS%UDWLVODYD 6$3 %5(=,1$ ,  )RON FRQFHSWLRQV RI ZLVH SHUVRQ
V SHUVRQDOLW\ LQ $VLDQ FXOWXUHV 6WXGLD

3V\FKRORJLFD $92-29 9 %(/29,29 =7 

1DNRNR SUDNWLFN MH SUDNWLFN LQWHOLJHQFLD ,Q , 5XLVHO $ 3URNRSNRY (GV .RJQLWYQ\ SRUWUW ORYHNDSS%UDWLVODYD6$3 '2.$/92GUD]NXOWU\YNRJQLWYQRPREUD]H HXUSVN\FK GHW ,Q , 5XLVHO $ 3URNRSNRY (GV .RJQLWYQ\ SRUWUW ORYHND SS  %UDWLVODYD6$3 '81%$5 .  +RZ VFLHQWLVWV UHDOO\ UHDVRQ 6FLHQWLILF UHDVRQLQJ LQ UHDO ZRUOG ODERUDWRULHV ,Q 5- 6WHUQEHUJ - 'DYLGVRQ (GV 0HFKDQLVPV RI LQVLJKW&DPEULGJH0$0,73UHVV )5$1.296. 0  %HKDYLRUOQRVLWXDQ NRQFHSW VRFLOQHM LQWHOLJHQFLH ,Q , 5XLVHO $ 3UR NRSNRY (GV .RJQLWYQ\ SRUWUW ORYHND SS %UDWLVODYD6$3 *&, 0  &DWHJRULFDO JHQHUDOL]DWLRQ RI EDVLF FRORUV E\ FKLOGUHQ 6WXGLD 3V\FKRORJLFD    *5((12 -*  5HVSRQVH 2Q FODLPV WKDW DQVZHU WKH ZURQJ TXHVWLRQV (GXFDWLRQDO 5H

VHDUFKHU *58%(5+( 'DUZLQRQPDQ1HZ<RUN 'XWWRQ

678',$36<&+2/2*,&$



+$/$0$ 3  ([LVWHQFLOQH NRJQFLH Y SV\FKRORJLFNRP IXQJRYDQ ORYHND ,Q , 5XLVHO $ 3URNRSNRY (GV .RJQLWYQ\ SRUWUW ORYHND 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 ,Q , 5XLVHO SRUWUW $ 3UR

58,6(/29 = 352.23.29 $  &RXQWHUIDFWXDOWKLQNLQJDQGSURDFWLYHFRSLQJ 6WXGLD 3V\FKRORJLFD 6$501<6&+8//(5 {WO\ D SUDNWLFN ,  ,Q , .RJQLWYQH 5XLVHO ,

LQWHOLJHQFLD

6DUPQ\6FKXOOHU (GV 3UDNWLFN LQWHOLJHQFLD ,9 %UDWLVODYD(3V6$9 6$501<6&+8//(5 ,  'HFLVLRQ PDN LQJ XQGHU WLPH SUHVVXUH LQ UHJDUG WR SUHIHUUHG FRJQL WLYH VW\OH DQDO\WLFDOLQWXLWLYH DQG VWXG\ RULHQWDWLRQ 6WXGLD3V\FKRORJLFD 6&+$1.5$%(/62156FULSWVSODQV JRDOVDQGXQGHUVWDQGLQJ+LOOVGDOH1-(UOEDXP 62//529 ( 62//5 7  7KH SV\ FKRORJLFDOO\ LQWHJUDWHG SHUVRQ DQG SDUDPHWHUV RI RSWLPDO IXQFWLRQLQJ 6WXGLD 3V\FKRORJLFD    67(51%(5* 5-  0HWDSKRUV RI PLQG &RQFHSWLRQV RI WKH QDWXUH RI LQWHOOLJHQFH &DP EULGJH&DPEULGJH8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV 675p(1(& 0  .RJQFLD D NRPSOHPHQ WDULWD ,Q , 5XLVHO $ 3URNRSNRY (GV .RJ QLWYQ\SRUWUWORYHNDSS%UDWLVODYD6$3 675p(1(&0675p(1(&3$SSOLFD WLRQ RI TXDQWXP SK\VLFV WR FRJQLWLYH SURFHVVHV 6WX GLD3V\FKRORJLFD 6=2%,29(3RUWUWWYRULYHMDLQWHOLJHQW QHMRVREQRVWLYURGLQQHMNRQ{WHOFLL,Q,5XLVHO$ 3URNRSNRY (GV .RJQLWYQ\ SRUWUW ORYHND SS%UDWLVODYD6$3

.RJQLWYQ\

ORYHND

%UDWLVODYD6$3 .29 '  /HW HYHQ SV\FKRORJ\ KDYH ZLVGRP$FULWLFDOHVVD\ 6WXGLD3V\FKRORJLFD  .8/.$51, ' 6,021 +$  ([SHU LPHQWDWLRQ LQ PDFKLQH GLVFRYHU\ ,Q - 6KUDJHU 3 /DQJOH\ (GV &RPSRQHQWLDO PRGHOV RI VFLHQWLILF GLVFRYHU\ DQG WKHRU\ IRUPDWLRQ 6DQ 0DWHR &$ 0RUJDQ.DXIPDQQ /$&+0$1 5 /$&+0$1 -/ %877(5

95267 - )('.29 ' .(172l 0 D &RQILUPDWLRQ ELDV HIIHFWV LQ WKH ZHOIDUH EH OLHIV RI WKH UHVLGHQWV RI (XURSHDQ FRXQWULHV 6WXGLD 3V\FKRORJLFD 95267 - )('.29 ' .(172l 0 E (IHNW VNUHVOHQKR GRND]RYDQLD FRQILUPDWLRQ ELDV Y SRVWRMRFK RE\YDWHRY HXUSVN\FK NUDMQ N VRFLOQHM VWDURVWOLYRVWL ZHOIDUH DWWLWXGHV ,Q , 5XL

),(/' (&  &RJQLWLYH SV\FKRORJ\ DQG LQ IRUPDWLRQ SURFHVVLQJ +LOOVGDOH 1- /DZUHQFH

(UOEDXP,QF 1(:(// $ 6,021 +$  +XPDQ SURE OHPVROYLQJ(QJOHZRRG&OLIIV1-3UHQWLFH+DOO 1(,66(5 8  &RJQLWLYH SV\FKRORJ\ 1HZ <RUN$SSOHWRQ&HQWXU\)R[ 3,$*(7 3UDJXH631 58,6(/ ,  ,QWHOLJHQFLD D P\VOHQLH %UDWLV ODYD,NDU 58,6(/ ,  2VREQRV~ D SR]QYDQLH %UDWLV ODYD,NDU 58,6(/, 3R]QYDQLHYKLVWRULFNFKVYLV ORVWLDFK%UDWLVODYD6$3 58,6(/ , 58,6(/29 =  9\EUDQ SUREOP\  SV\FKROJLH SR]QYDQLD  %UDWLVODYD 9HGD -  3V\FKRORJLH LQWHOLJHQFH

VHO $ 3URNRSNRY (GV .RJQLWYQ\ SRUWUW ORYHNDSS%UDWLVODYD6$3 :$621 3 -2+1621/$,5' 31  7KH SV\FKRORJ\ RI UHDVRQLQJ 6WUXFWXUH DQG FRQWHQW &DPEULGJH0$+DUYDUG8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV :$/%(5* +- 76$, 6+  0DWWKHZ HIIHFWVLQHGXFDWLRQ $PHULFDQ(GXFDWLRQDO5HVHDUFK -RXUQDO :+,7(+($'$15866(//% 3ULQ FLSLD 0DWKHPDWLFD  YRO &DPEULGJH &DPEULGJH 8QLYHUVLW\3UHVV



678',$36<&+2/2*,&$

8'6.32=19$1,(9.217(;7(.2*1,791(-36<&+2/*,(

,5XLVHO

6KUQ 3UHGORHQ {WGLD VXPDUL]XMH YVNXPQ LQQRV~ &HQWUD H[FHOHQWQRVWL YVNXPX NRJQFL &(9.2* &LHRP YVNXPQFK SURMHNWRY ULH{HQFK Y UPFL &HQWUD EROR SULVSLH~ NX NRQFLSRYD QLX PRGHOX NRJQLWYQHKR SRUWUWX ORYHND QD UR]GLHO RG PRGHOX UHDNWYQHKR D QHGRNRQDOKR $QDO\]XM VD NRY DVSHNW\ SRUWUWX YUWDQH NRJQLWYQ\FK NRQ{WUXNWRY DNWLYLW\ Y SR]QYDQ SVREHQLD SRWDRY Y NRJQLWYQHM SV\FKROJLL SVREHQLD NRJQLWYQ\FK SURFHVRY PRGHORY SD PWL ULH{HQLD SUREOPRY SVREHQLD NRJQLWYQ\FK RP\ORY NRJQLWYQ\FK {WORY D NRJQLWYQ\FK VFKP 8YDRYDOR VD R NRJQLWYQHM SV\FKROJLL YHG\ R Y]~DKX NRJQFL D LQWHOLJHQFLH DNR DM R NRJQLWYQRP]DVWUH{HQSRUWUWXSURVWUHGQFWYRPPGURVWL.RJQLWYQDNRQFHSFLDY\MDGUXMHSUHV YHGHQLH R GRPLQDQFLL SR]QYDQLD Y NRQWH[WH XGVNHM H[LVWHQFLH ORYHN UDFLRQOQH UHJXOXMH VYRMHVSUYDQLHDNWYQHIRUPXMHYRQNDM{LHSURVWUHGLHDSOQLYRWQFLHOH

Reproduced with permission of the copyright owner. Further reproduction prohibited without permission.