Google share price - Probability of

getting more than $400 per share (19

August, 2008 to 14 August, 2009)

𝑛 𝑘
Pr 𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 𝑝) = 𝑝 (1 − 𝑝)(𝑛−𝑘)
𝑘

52 19 52−19
Pr(𝑃𝑟𝑖𝑐𝑒 > $400 𝑝 = 19 52 = 19 52 1 − 19 52 ≈ 0.114
19

Pr: Probability of the model

𝑝: Probability of Google’s share price greater than $400

𝑛: Total number of share prices

𝑘: Number of share prices that are greater than $400

Google share price from 19 August, 2008 to

14 August, 2009
600

500

400

300

200 Close

100