APPENDIX E ANALYSIS OF BALLISTIC LIMIT DATA

Once the ballistic limit testing has been completed, the test results should be analyzed for
each test threat by performing a regression to estimate what the armors performance will be
over a range of velocities. In particular, the analysis should attempt to estimate the velocity
where the probability of perforation becomes reasonably small. In general a logistic regression
can be used for this purpose; however, other probability distributions and regression methods
may be used when one can be shown to better estimate the performance of a particular armor
model.
The logistic regression may be performed on the data using the method of maximum
likelihood to estimate the logistic parameters and , which are the estimated logistic
constant and the estimated velocity coefficient, respectively. These parameters define the shape
of the S-shaped logistic curve, which is defined as:
0

( )
01
01

e
ve+
+

+
=
Here (v) is the probability of a complete perforation occurring at velocity, v. From the
estimated logistic parameters, the ballistic limit can be determined as:
1
0
50

V=
In addition, the velocity at which the probability of a complete perforation is x %, , can be
determined as:
x V
1
0

1
ln

= x
x
Vx
The estimated logistic parameters for a conditioned armor and its ballistic limit can be
determined in the same method; however, care should be exercised when the analysis is
performed on a relatively small data set, as the reliability of the estimated perforation probability
will be poor for small data sets.
69 E -

,

, , ,

.

.

; ,

, ,

.
,

, ,

, .

, :
0

1

()
0 1
0 1
1

v
v
e
v e +
+
+
=
(v) , , v.
,
:
1
0
50

V =
, , - x %,

:
x V
1
0

1
ln

= x
x
Vx


; ,
,
,

.
69