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94

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2010.;
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08 2008.;
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26 2010.;
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21 2007.;
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10 04 2009..

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1


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95


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(49)

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=
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= (681. .. ) /(1881. .. ) = 0 ,361946 = 36 ,194%



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97

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(51)

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(56)

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1


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(58)

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100

PV =

FV
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(1 + i )n*(1 / ) 1

*
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=
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(59)

( (1+i)1/x= )
(60):

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PV
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=

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n 1 1
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(%) :

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156

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(- -)

.
, ,
10-12 , . ,
,

,
.


(148) ,
.
, ,
(149):

(EBIT WACC ( %) * ) * (1 )

=
(WACC ( ) iRF ) *

( /
) ,
163

.
1 . 1 .
(
/ ),
, .
(150):

(EBIT WACC ( %) * ) * (1 )

=
(WACC ( ) iRF ) * + (WACC (CK ) iRF ) * CK

,

. 1,
.
:
: ( , (149)),
( ) ( /. ),
(151):

/ .

(EBIT WACC ( %) * ) * (1 )

=
(WACC (CK ) i RF ) * CK

1,
. 1
, , ,
,
-.


,

,
,
164

.
()
:

(1 + WACC )

( )

WACC

(152)

: WACC (%); ()
, (143).
()
,
:

(
1
)
+
WACC

( )

WACC

(153)

: ()
, (140).
()
,
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WACC

(154)

: ()
, (148).
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165


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; ,
. , IRR ,
, ,
. , ,
; , IRR
.
IRR
. IRR
: , .
,
IRR, IRR,
166


,
,
/ / .
IRR
:

IRR (min) = ( ) /

(154)

: .
IRR
:

IRR (min) = ( ) /

(155)

IRR
:

IRR (min) = ( ) /

(156)


() ()
: ,
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IRR
, :
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() /
, ,
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,
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167

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:

(
1
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( )

WACC

(157)

: WACC (%); ()
, (143);
, .

168

()
,
:

(
1
)
+
WACC

( )

WACC

(158)

: ()
, (140).
()
, :

(
1
)
+
WACC

( )

WACC

(159)

: ()
, (148).

,
.
IRR
:

IRR (min) = ( ) /

(160)

IRR
:

IRR (min) = ( ) /

(161)

IRR
:

IRR (min) = ( ) /

(162)

IRR , ,
,
.

169


: Wait-if
,

, -
-.
.
100 . .., ,
// 75 . ...
,

5% ( iRF).
,
(WACC) 12%.
(
),
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)
,
, , 7,5% .
, .
, WACC(%) 13% (
), WACC() 10,5% ( WACC
). , WACC(CK) 12,5%.
, EBIT 10 . .., 5,9 .
..
, ,
. ,
,
20%,
(163):
= (EBIT WACC ( ) * ) /(EBIT WACC ( ) * ) = (10 2,625 5,9) /(10 2,625) = 1,475 / 7,375 = 20%

, WACC() ,
,

,

170

, (.
(145), (146)).
:
=

1
1
=
= 8 ,333
WACC 12%

,
, 8,333 ,
-
.

= / = 100 / 5,9 = 16 ,949


,
8,333 2 .
,
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= (WACC ( ) i RF ) *

= (10 ,5% 5%) * 25 / 100 = 0 ,01375

, 1,375%
.
, , ,
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= (WACC ( ) i RF ) *

75
= (12,5% 5%) *
= 0 ,05625

100

, 5,625%

.
n, :

n=

100
100
=
=
= 18 , 5185
( EBIT WACC ( %)* )*(1 ) (10 13%*25 )*(120%) 5 , 4

,
18,51 .

. , , ,
171

?! .
, ,
, .,
, .
,
. 1:

()

( ) * (1 + WACC (CK ))[n ]


100 * (1 + 0 ,125)18 ,5185
=
=
= 164,001
(EBIT WACC ( %) * ) * (1 ) (10 13% * 25) * (1 20%)

,
(
,
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164 !

, . , ,
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172

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.
.
.

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( ) = (1 + + ) * () = (1 + 0 ,014 + 0 ,056) * 164,001 = 175,49


, ,
.

.
,
18 ,
,
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.
9,8% 50% ( 100%) .

173

,
, ,
/ :
/

5,4
(EBIT WACC ( %) * ) * (1 ) (10 13% * 25) * (1 20%)

0 ,072
75
75

=
= 5,23636
=
=
=
1
,
375
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10
,
5
%
5
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*
25
(
(
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WACC

0 ,01375

RF

100

100

():

( ) = ( ) / / = 164 / 5,23636 = 31,3217


, ,
.
10 ,
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.
10 , , , (
30-35 ),
.
,

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,

( ,

).
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, ),
.

174

,
,
.
, , ,
, ,
,
. .
/
:
/

(10 13% * 25) * (1 20%)


(EBIT WACC ( %) * ) * (1 )

75

= 1,028571
=
=
(10 ,5% 5%) * 25
(WACC ( ) i RF ) *
+ 0 ,05625

100

75
= 9,00
1

12%
1
164
(
1
12
%)
+

1
WACC
1

(1 + WACC ) ( )

,
9 . ..,
, ,
, ,
,
/ /. , 10 .
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.
(9-5,9=3,1 . ..)
.
:

1
1

(1 + WACC ) ( )

WACC

75
= 9,00
1

12%
1
(1 + 12%)175 ,5


9 . ... ,
3,1 . .. , ,
.
- , ,
175

,
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.
,
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EBIT 50%,
9 . .. n = 20 ; =8,33 (
); =14,44 ( 17,3%); () = 207 (+ 15,4%);
. = 194 (+ 15,6%); . = 44,3 (+29,3%). = 8,74 (9 . ..
). , ,
,
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29%. , ,
9 . ..,
.
,
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3 9).
. / 19%,
/ 33%,

.
2. :
.
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= 16,94; ()=168,9; ()=164,0118; ()=8,54 ( 3,66
!); / = 19,2; / = 2,4. ,
,

176

(9%),
.
,
, ,
,
! , ,
.
14,5 . .. : 8,54 .
, , .
3. ,
(
)
30 . ... , EBIT 15
. .., 9 . ... : =8,333;
=14,44; ()=83,07; ()=77,55; ()=10,07; n=13; /
=7,67; / =1,43. = 12,72. =18,59. IRR (,
)=12,11%=IRR .
wait-if ,

. , wait-if ,
,
,
.
wait-if .
,
,
.
,
:
;
; ;
; ..

, .


. ,
,
177

,
. ,
, ,
,
.
.
.
, (IRR) (,
) 12,1163%.
,
, ,

.
6,21 . .. ; , , ,
,
.
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,
1, 2.

. ,
:

.
, .

;
.
, ,
. ,
, ,
1

4%
,
, ,
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2
.

178

, ,
, , .
,
, ,
.
, , , ,
.
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:
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,

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179


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180

. ,
. , ,
.
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,
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. , -,
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= .250 + .260
(164)
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1 :

= .240 + .270

(165)

3. () ,
, , 1
.

. . , . 250
250 .

181

1 , ,
:

= (.210 .216) + .220 + .230 + .140

(166)

4. () ,
,
.
,
. ()
, , ,
:

= .190 .140

(167)

,
)


. .
:
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.
,
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):

= .620 + .630 + .670

(168)

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, 12
. ,
() .

= .610

(169)

3. ()
( 590 ( IV )),
V , :
,
182

. ,
:

= .590+ .640 + .650 + .660 .216

(170)

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:

= .490

(171)

, ,
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.

(172)

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183

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184

+ +
+

(173) 1

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+
+

(174)


, , ,
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0,8,
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,

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Money) . Ready money
, -, , -,
(
1

118 1 1997 .
.

185

).
:


(175)

=
+


,
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,

,

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0,2,

0,1. , ,

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186

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L5 (176) ,
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() :

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(177)

: NOC Net Operating Capital NWC (Net)


Working Capital. ,
-.
! ()
:

+ +
=

(178)

((/))
:

( / ) =
=
+ +

(179)


.
11% ( ).

():

+
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(180)

,

.
187

()
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(181)

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+ +

(182)

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() :

(183)

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(184)


.

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188

(185)

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=

(186)

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=
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(187)

:
; (, ,
).

:

=
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(188)

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).

189

2-5 .
1.
():

+ 0 ,5 * + 0 ,3 *
1
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(189)

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.
():

(190)

,
.
():

=
< 0 ,38
+ + +

(192)

, 1
.
():

+
+

(193)

,
.
..
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(194)

: (
260 ), 250
( ).
1

: .. , .. , .. , .. .

190

.
(195):

= * (1 ) + + * (1 )

: ( 020 );
/
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.
191

: 1

10

10
11

%
%

%
%

%
%

%
%

%
%

20

% % % %

21
29
30
40
50

% % % %

60
70
80
90
91
100
110
120
121
130
131

%
%
%
%
%
%
%
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()

140

141

142

150
180

%
%

%
%

%
%

%
%

%
%

()

190

200

201

202

(+/-)

()
,
, ,



()








()
()
()

%
%

%
%

%
%

%
%

%
%

% % % %

: .
. (.3 .2).
(.5 .4). %
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, . .

192

2 3 2
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,
Y.

S.

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:
,
().

195

196

197

198

199

200

201

, :
EBIT Earnings Before Interest and Taxes
.
NOI Net Operating Income .
EBITDA Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation and Amortization
, ,
.
, , , ,
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, , ,


.
190 , 140
.
190 .
140 .
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,
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,
.
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IV V (.
590 + . 690);
(. 214);
(. 190);
(. 290);
(. 210);
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, (. 211);
(. 300 700);
(. 620);
202

(. 690);
(. 230 + 240);
170 4
, .
;
;
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490 ,
, 2, ,
.

190 ( ) 135
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.
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,
.

.
Margin Ratios : ,
,
10
.
Turnover Ratios
9
.
Average Turnover Terms Ratios
8
, .

203

* , 365 .
: (360 ),
(180 ), (90 ), (30 ), .....
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4 ;
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( ), .

, .

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.
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.
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M9

M10
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204

T1

T2
.
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T3
.
.
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.
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.
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.
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() .
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A2

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205

A6
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.
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;
206

,
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W.H. Beaver Financial reporting: An accounting revolution, 1973.

212


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214

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(233)

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215

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216

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: , .; ,
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,
. , 367 ( 25.06.2003)

1

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731 ( 03.10.2002)
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(236)

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=
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(237)

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290 1 ().
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233

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1.
:
n

r=

Cov ( X ,Y )

X Y

(X 1 ,i X ) * (Y1 ,i Y )

i =1

i =1

i =1

(240)

(X 1 ,i X )2 * (Y1 ,i Y )2

, :
n

X=

X
i =1

; Y=

Y
i =1

(241)

: ,
; n (
); X
; Cov (X,Y) ,
; X , Y ,
,
- .

. , ,
1

r
, XIX (r
regression). , ,
, (r)
. =>
r, 100%,
.
1888
, :
, .

.

234

,
.
-
, ,
.

. ..
10% ( 0,1) 12000 ., 20% 15000 .,
15% 17000 ., 15% 19000 .,
20% 22000 ., 9% 24000 ., 11%

(15000 .). 100%, , ,
: -
..! ..
:
0,1*12000+0,2*(15000+22000)+0,15*(17000+19000)+0,09*24000+0,11*(-15000)=14510.


():
n

= i * i

(242)

n=1

: i i- ; i i- .
, , ,
? ,
.
.
,
.
! !

.
,

. .
,
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,
235

. ,
, ,
( )

.

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( ):
( ), - (
) ( ).
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.
,
. ,
,
.
1
: .
:

= ( X i )2 = ( X i )2

(243)

: - , (241);
Xi i- .

:

(14510 12000 )2 + (14510 15000 )2 + (14510 17000 )2 + (14510 19000 )2 +


+ (14510 22000 )2 + (14510 24000 )2 + (14510 (15000 ))2 = / 32402 . /

32402
.
, 14510 . .
1691
1


, , , , .. ,
.. , ..

236

+30711 . .
.
()
.


. ,
( ()),

1

() :

= Ai * ( X i )2 = Ai * ( X i )2

(244)

: i i- .

. , ,
.. :

0 ,1 * (14510 12000 )2 + 0 ,2 * (14510 15000 )2 + 0 ,15 * (14510 17000 )2 + 0 ,15 *

= * (14510 19000 )2 + 0 ,2 * (14510 22000 )2 + 0 ,09 * (14510 24000 )2 +


+ 0 ,11 * (14510 (15000 ))2 = / 10943 . /
,
..: +/- 5471 .
.

- 2,
-.

, n1 .
1


, , , , .. ,
.. , ..
2
John E. Hanke, Artur G.
Reitsch, Dean W. Wichern, .. ( . ..), . , . , .
.
. , () . , .

237

, (n1), ,
,
.
,
,
(, ) .
-
:

( X )2
X
( X i )2
( X i )2

n
=
A() =
==
n1
n1
n1
2

(245)

,
:

( X )2
8 ,84 * 10 9
9
2,3 * 10
X
7
n
=
= 13176 .
() =
71
n1
2


,
. , .
1 .
- :

Ai * ( X i )2
Ai * ( X i )2

=
() =
n1

n1

(247)

.. 4467 .
- ,

.
-
1.
, ,
n , , ,
1

: .. , .. , ..
.

238

, .
-: .

( X )2
X
( X i )2
( X i )2

n
( ) =
=
=
n
n
n
2

(248)

..
: 12199 .
, -
, :

Ai * ( X i )2
Ai * ( X i )2

=
( ) =
n

(249)

..
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,
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: 4136 .
32402 . , ,
- ?
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.
.
, .

,
.
:

Cov ( X ,Y ) = Ai * ( X i X ) * (Yi Y )

(250)

239

, , ,
:

Cov ( X ,Y ) = ( X i X ) * (Yi Y )

(251)

-
:

Cov ( X ,Y ) =

(X i X ) * (Yi Y )

(252)

n1

Cov ( X ,Y ) =

(X i X ) * (Yi Y )

(253)

?
. ,
, (r),

. (r)
.
:

2* *
=
=
2* *

(254)

, (254) ,
() /
/, . , 1/3
, 2/6, , 3/9 .

,

!
,
.
,
. -,
. -,

, .
240

,
14510 ., 32402 .
( )
,
:

V = X

(255)

: V =

%=

32402
% = 223% .
14510

,
,

.
, .
.

.
, , , ,
, , ,
. ,

.
.
(D 2)
/

/,

D =2

(256)

, ,
, ,
:

ax2 + by = a 2 x2 + b2 y2 + 2 * a * b * r * x * y

(257)

: a b , , . ,
. r
, .
a b , ,
241

12 = 1. , (257) a b
1, , .
:

ax + bx = a x + b y

(258)

: a b , , . ,
. a b
, , 12 = 1. ,
(258) a b 1, ,
.



, , :
? .
.
.
,
, ,
- .
. ,
, .
(Harry Markowitz) 1927
.
. ,
.

,
.

242


PV,
NPV Net Present Value, .
(John Bur Williams) (1900
1989) 1938 .

.
.. NPV

(CF Cash flow
), .
, , ,
. ?!


: !
1952 . ,
,
. .
. :
, 2 3 ,
n. 1952
RAND, . 1955
.
, .
,
(
, )
:
- ?!. 1959

: , ,
, .

-.
(1990.). .

. ,
.
243

.
.
. , ,
. ()
(). .
, (.)
100.. , 200.. 5% .

:

.
.

. .

. .
100 120 80 60

/
200
5% 7% 4% 2%
18%
210
3% 6% 4% 5%
18%
280
2% 2% 5% 9%
18%
160
2% 9% 7% 6%
24%
190
5% 4% 6% 7%
22%
17% 28% 26% 29%
100%

, ,
. ,
100%. ,
.
, , , 100,00000. ..
, .
,
(, 90 110 .. ),
(.) , , 100,
, .
: 17%*100+28%*120+26%*80+29%*60 =
=88,8.. : 18%*(200+210+280)+
+24%*160+22%*190 = 204,4..
: 17%*125,44+28%*973,44+
+26%*77,44+29%*829,44=554,56.
: 18%*(19,36+31,36+5715,36)+24%*1971,36+22%*207,36=1556,64.
244

, .
: 23,549.
: 39,45.
: Cov ( X ,Y ) = Ai * ( X i X ) * (Yi Y )

:
2,464
9,6096+1,5488+2,5344+1,8816+10,48321,9712-8,064+16,9344+47,174433,264
195,969,9456124,675+27,35+76,723-8,06417,9712+7,6032+29,03=190,72.
, , 2,464 5%*(10088,8)*(200
204,4)= 2,464.
.
, (r),
:
190,72(23,549*39,454)= 0,20527.
,
. 1
+1. +1,
, ,
.
,
.
r 1,
.
,
.
.
0 ,
. , ,
(, r(Sin2X+Cos2X)=0, :
Sin2X+Cos2X=1).
,

(257).

, .

(258). 10%.

. :
245

/
A
B
0% 100%
10% 90%
20% 80%
30% 70%
40% 60%
50% 50%
60% 40%
70% 30%
80% 20%
90% 10%
100% 0%

A2
0
0,01
0,04
0,09
0,16
0,25
0,36
0,49
0,64
0,81
1

B2
1
0,81
0,64
0,49
0,36
0,25
0,16
0,09
0,04
0,01
0

2(A+B)
1556,64
1422,1
1295,19
1175,91
1064,26
960,24
863,846
775,082
693,946
620,438
554,56

p(A+B)
204,4
192,84
181,28
169,72
158,16
146,6
135,04
123,48
111,92
100,36
88,8

(A+B)
39,4543
37,7108
35,9888
34,2916
32,623
30,9877
29,3913
27,8403
26,3428
24,9086
23,5491


.
, , .
,
/,
30% 70% .
.
: /

246

I / (/).
,
, .
/
, . ,
, , 70% 75%
30% 35% .
(IV ), / (I
) , /
, , . II
, 45
. III , ,
. ,
169, ,
. ,
169 .., 34,2...

. ,
/,
.
.
.

. ,
, : CAPM1, APT,
.


CAPM.
.
1955 .
(William F. Sharpe)

, .
-, .

.


.
1961
,
.
1

CAPM Capital Asset Pricing Model .

247

. ,

. 1963 IBM
. ,
,
McKinsey. 1963-1964 ,
. :
. .
, , ,
(1990/1991). .
800 .
APSIM,
.
,
, .
,
: (
, - ,
) (
). , (),


.
,

, (
). ,
,
.
, ,
. .
:

R = RF + * (RM RF )

(259)

: R ; RF
; (RMRF) ; RM
; .

. ,
.

. ,

248

. ,
:

COV ( X , Y ) T X * Y X * Y
=
(X )
T X 2 ( X )2

(260)

: ;
( - :
, S&P 500, Dow Jones ); , ,
.
, 0,3 2, -2.
=1, R = RM, ,
.
, >1,
, , .
. 1,5.
, , , -
, 1%,
1,5%, , 1%, 1,5%.
, <1,
, , ,
.
, ,

.
. ,
, 0,5. , -
1%, 0,5%,
1%, 0,5%.
( , , ,
, , ..) ,
. , ,
0,2, , ,
50%
10%! , ,
, ,
,
.
. ( )
0,3. -, ,
0,7, .
>1,
,
249

, . !
, ,
.
,
. ,
, .

.
>1, . 1 (
1,3 0,85), ,
. <1,
,
, .



APT 1.

.
, 1963 ,


. 13
,
.
(Stephen Alan

Ross)
. 1965
( ) . , ,
.
5
, .
.
, :
(Theory of Agency). , ,

. ,

.
1

APT Arbitrage pricing Theory .

250

, ,
.
1976 .
, ,
(). 1975
,
. ,
. 1976
1980- ,
,
. ,

.
.
, .
.
.
,
. , 1.
, ,
.
, ,
: , , ,
, , . ,

, .
:
n

= 0 + 11 + 22 + 33 + .... + nn = 0 + i i
n =1

(261)

: ; 0
; ai i- ; ui
i- .
,
, ,
,
.
,
251

, ,
.
j , 3-
: , .
j ,
.
.
,
j .
, 1 ,
, , :

i * i > 0

(262)


.
,
. i i-
. i i- ,
. Xi :

gi y i = Pi
k z =P
i i
i

hi fi = Pi
.......

(263)

g y i-
1. k z
i-
2. g y
i-
3. .
, , .


. 3 : (
); (
); ( ).

252


1, 2, 3, 4.
:
:

1
2
3
4


, . ..
190
210
170
50

210
195
170
240
215
180
190
170
140
75
52
20

, 1
1:

gi y i = Pi 240 * 2 + 190 * 3 + 75 * 4 = 210 2 = 0 ,52055

k i z i = Pi = 215 * 2 + 170 * 3 + 52 * 4 = 195 3 = 1,952056

hi fi = Pi 180 * 2 + 140 * 3 + 20 * 4 = 170 4 = 0 ,47945


, ()
1,
:
1

?
. 2 : , .
(1) , (2) 2
.

1 1 , .
.

. , Excel,
2003 2007.
, .
(1 = ; 2 = 2 , ..n = n
). .
1 , .
.

- , ,
.
.

253

= i * i = -0,52 * 210 + 1,952 * 170 - 0,47 * 50 = 189,8288

i * i = 190 189,8288 = 0 ,171205 > 0 ,

(264)

(262):

, .
52%
2, 47,945% 4 195,2%
3, 1 0,171205 . ..
. ,
,
, .
:

(265)

.
.
0,1%.
,
.
!

.
.
1 ,
?
. 2.
:

gi y i = Pi 210 * 1 + 190 * 3 + 75 * 4 = 240 1 = 1,92105

k i z i = Pi = 195 * 1 + 170 * 3 + 52 * 4 = 215 3 = 3,750001

hi fi = Pi 170 * 1 + 140 * 3 + 20 * 4 = 180 4 = 0 ,92105


, :

= i * i = 1,92105 * 190 + 3,75 * 170 0 ,921 * 50 = 226,45


210,
(-16,44210= 7,83%).

254

, .
.
, :

gi y i = Pi 210 * 1 + 240 * 2 + 75 * 4 = 190 1 = 0 ,512281

k i z i = Pi = 195 * 1 + 215 * 2 + 52 * 4 = 170 2 = 0 ,26666

hi fi = Pi 170 * 1 + 180 * 2 + 20 * 4 = 140 4 = 0 ,245614


:

= i * i = 190 * 0 ,51 + 210 * 0 ,2666 + 0 ,24 * 50 = 165,614

i * i = 170 165,614 = 4 ,385964 > 0

(262):

,
3, 4,385964 . ..
2,58%, .
% ,
1, .
:
4.

gi y i = Pi 210 * 1 + 240 * 2 + 190 * 3 = 75 1 = 2,08571

k i z i = Pi = 195 * 1 + 215 * 2 + 170 * 3 = 52 2 = 1,08571

hi fi = Pi 170 * 1 + 180 * 2 + 140 * 3 = 20 3 = 4 ,071429


:

= i * i = 2,08571 * 190 1,08571 * 210 + 4 ,07 * 170 = 67,85


, :
(17,85/50=35,71%).
, 3.
, . 3
3. 51,22%
1, 26,66% 2 24,56%
4. +/-1,
, 1 2,19, ,
119%
1, .
.
255

/
/ . ,
,
,
! ,
, , ,
, .
, ,
.
,
, (,
/ ,
/. ()
.

,
,
! ,
,
.
,
.
. ,
. , , ,
, ,
. ,
.
/
(
).
.

. , ,
3, ,
3, 51,2%
1, 26,6% 2, 24,56% 4.
:
256

,
. ..

287,3

317,6

294,9

257,1

266,0

304,0

272,3

228,0

62,3

93,4

64,8

24,9

615,614, 4,385964
, .
.
. ,
.
:
/

, . ..

287,3334

265,9999

62,28071

, . ..

289,8539

268,111

61,0351

, ,
()
() . ,
.
,
,
/ /
.
,
.
, ,
:
:
/

, . ..

287,33

266,00

62,28

289,85

268,11

61,04

1,2

1,3

0,8

0,4

0,2

1,1

257

, . ,
( ) (261):
n

= 0 + 11 + 22 + 33 + .... + nn = 0 + i i
n=1

,
,

.
0
(
). ,
, :
n

+
+
+
+
+
=
+
....

i i 1
1 1
2 2
3 3
0
n n
0
n=1

n
+ + + + .... + = +
n n
i i
0
1 1
2 2
3 3
0
2
n=1

..............................................................................

n
+ + + + .... + = +
i i
n n
n
1 1
2 2
3 3
0
0
n=1

(266)

,
.
.

0 + 1 * 1,2 + 2 * 0 ,4 = 289,85 0 = 8290,87 0 = 0 .....

0 + 1 * 1,3 + 2 * 0 ,2 = 268,11 1 = 6098,028 1 = 294,421 ....


+ * 0 ,8 + * 1,1 = 61,04 = 3157,709 = 158,638 .....
1
2
2
2
0

. ,
.
0, 1,
2.
. ,
. ,
= 0 (, , ). ,
,
, .

258

0 ?
, ,
. 619 .
.. 615,61 ... ,
, , 616 ..
,
(, ,
). % 0,06% ,
.
,
. , ,

, 3.
,
. ,
6: = 0,75; =
0,65. 28 .. (: 10000 ).
290 . ...
:
(267)

(U ) = 1 * 1 + 2 2 + ... + n n

: 1/3*1,2+1/3*1,3+1/3*0,8=1,1. 1/3
, 1/3 .
(267) () -
U, .
U .
(267) 0,566.
, . ,
1, 2, 4 6,
,
,
.
,
6 ,
.
, .

259

,
( (266)!).


:
.
, .
.

. , ,
.




.
.
n . , n 2. ,
2 .
.
, ,

. ,
25, 100.
.
()
(268):
2Cov (a , a) 2Cov (a , b) 2Cov (a , c) 2Cov (a , d ) 2Cov (a , e) ... 2Cov (a , n) 1
2Cov (b, a) 2Cov (b, b) 2Cov (b, c ) 2Cov (b, d ) 2Cov (b, e) ... 2Cov (b, n) 1
2Cov (c , a) 2Cov (c , b) 2Cov (c , c ) 2Cov (c , d ) 2Cov (c , e) .... 2Cov (c , n) 1
=

2Cov (d , a) 2Cov (d , b) 2Cov (d , c ) 2Cov (d , d ) 2Cov (d , e) ...2Cov (d , n) 1


2Cov (e , a) 2Cov (e , b) 2Cov (e , c ) 2Cov (e , d ) 2Cov (e , e) ... 2Cov (e , n) 1
..........................................................................................................
2Cov (n, a) 2Cov (n, b) 2Cov (n, c ) 2Cov (n, d ) 2Cov (n, e) ... 2Cov (n, n) 1
1

260

....

,
, ,
a,b,c,d,e,,n, .
.
2
= 2. Cov ,

n.
(253):

Cov ( X ,Y ) =

(X i X ) * (Yi Y )
n

1 1 , ,
, ! ,
, ,
.
(-1) :

A1 ,1 A2 ,1 A3 ,1 .... An ,1
1 =

1
*
Det ( A)

A1 ,2 A2 ,2 A3 ,2 .... An ,2
A1 ,3 A2 ,3 A3 ,3 .... An ,3

; Det ( A) 0 !

(269)

..........................
A1 ,n A2 ,n A3 ,n .... An ,n

: Det(A) () .

. 1,1; 2,2; .; n,n , .
:

i , j = (1)i + j * X

(270)

: i, j (, 1,2
i=1; j=2). <X> - ,
, , <X> i j
(, 1,2 1 2 ).
, 2 1
, .
(269)

261

2 4.
!
,
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, ,
( 5 7 )
.

Excel.
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, (268)! ,
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.

.
:
: . 2010 . 2011., ..

01.01.2010
15.01.2010
29.01.2010
12.02.2010
26.02.2010
12.03.2010
26.03.2010
09.04.2010
23.04.2010
07.05.2010

100
101,0
102,0
103,1
104,1
105,1
106,1
107,1
108,0
109,0

210
211,0
212,0
213,1
214,1
215,0
216,0
217,1
217,2
217,3

215
215,4
216,4
217,4
218,1
218,7
219,7
220,7
219,4
218,5

262

300
300,5
301,4
302,5
301,7
302,6
303,4
303,4
297,5
298,1

20
16,0
14,0
11,3
0,2
1,8
3,5
7,1
9,0
11,5

15
16,0
17,0
18,1
19,1
20,1
21,1
22,1
23,0
24,0


21.05.2010
04.06.2010
18.06.2010
02.07.2010
16.07.2010
30.07.2010
13.08.2010
27.08.2010
10.09.2010
24.09.2010
08.10.2010
22.10.2010
05.11.2010
19.11.2010
03.12.2010
17.12.2010
31.12.2010
14.01.2011

109,9
111,0
112,0
111,0
110,0
109,0
108,0
107,0
105,9
104,9
104,1
103,0
102,0
101,1
100,1
99,1
98,2
97,0

217,4
217,5
217,6
217,7
217,8
217,7
217,7
217,6
217,5
217,4
217,4
217,4
217,4
217,4
217,5
217,6
217,7
217,8

219,2
220,2
221,0
221,9
222,7
223,7
224,7
225,4
226,2
227,0
227,8
228,8
229,7
230,1
231,1
232,1
219,2
219,3

297,8
297,7
297,8
298,8
299,8
300,3
301,2
301,7
301,8
302,7
303,5
304,4
305,2
305,6
306,5
307,5
307,9
308,4

12,0
14,0
12,0
15,0
15,8
18,0
17,3
11,6
0,4
3,1
3,9
6,3
4,8
5,7
8,0
7,6
10,0
11,3

24,9
26,0
27,0
27,9
29,0
29,9
31,0
32,0
33,1
34,1
34,9
36,0
37,0
37,9
38,9
40,0
40,9
42,1

, , ,
.
.
(253)
:
. 2010 . 2011.

34,5
6,2
-5,6
-21,3
8,9
-21,0

6,2
9,6
13,3
2,1
-5,6
26,0

-5,6
13,3
48,2
14,6
-20,2
61,8

-21,3
2,1
14,6
19,7
-14,0
32,7

8,9
-5,6
-20,2
-14,0
58,5
-21,1

-21,0
26,0
61,8
32,7
-21,1
129,5

1
1
1
1
1
1


(, Cov(a,b) Cov(b,a), ).
2. 1,
0, , 1
100% .
1, , , .
( ,

263

, Excel,
):

%%%

0,6
-1,2
-0,1
0,4
-0,1
0,3
9,96%

-1,2
2,2
0,2
-0,7
0,1
-0,5
45,21%

-0,1
0,2
0,1
-0,1
0,0
-0,1
6,74%

0,4
-0,7
-0,1
0,3
0,0
0,2
47,14%

-0,1
0,1
0,0
0,0
0,0
0,0
10,96%

0,3
-0,5
-0,1
0,2
0,0
0,1
-20,01%

%%%
9,96%
45,21%
6,74%
47,14%
10,96%
-20,01%
-1,0146

%%%
, . ,
, 9,96% , 45,21% ,
6,74% , 47,14% , 10,96% , 20,01% . ,
, , .
: %%% ( , %%%
, , ,
%%% ) +1.
: 9,96%+45,21%+6,74%+47,14%+10,96%-20,01%=1 ,
. , , -20%
. ,
. 20,01% ,
!
.
:

= * ( ) + * ( ) + * () + .... + n * (n)

(271)

, , , , ., n.
, ,
, i i- . ( ) -
, .
, ,
, 20,01%
, .
:

264

= 9,96% * 105 + 35,21% * 216,4 + 6 ,74% * 222 + 37,14% * 302,1 +


+ 10 ,96% * 9,67 + 0% * 28 ,505 = 214,89 ..

.
. ,

.
:

= * ( ) + * ( ) + * () + .... + n * (n)

(272)

(245):

( X )2
X
( X i )2
( X i )2

n
=
A() =
==
n1
n1
n1
2

= 9,96% * 0 ,4212 + 35,21% * 0 ,784 + 6 ,74% * 0 ,3368 + 37,14% * 1,187138 +


+ 10 ,96% * 0 ,603 = 3,33297 ..
3,33 .., 1,55% , ,
.
,
,
.

.

.

.
,
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? ((%))
(273):

265


* ( ) + * ( ) + * () + .... + n * (n)
(%) =
1 * 100%
* ( ) + * ( ) + * () + .... + n * (n)
.
1,37%.
, 1,37%,
, 5%.
, 5% ,
.

, ,

(). ,

.
:

n 1
= n1 ( / )i 1 * P .

n =1

=
.
( / )i 1 * P .

=1

(274)

: .
i- ( ) ,
. n ,
(
=n-1).

. 1 100 ., 2
101 , 3 104,5 .
:

101 104,5

n 1
= n1 ( / )i 1 * P . . = 31
1 * 100 =
*
100
101


=
n
1

= 2 1,045 1 * 100 = 0 ,023 * 100 = 2,2252

, =n-1=3-1=2.
()
(275):

266

2Cov (a , a) 2Cov (a , b) 2Cov (a , c) 2Cov (a , d ) ... 2Cov (a , n) (1)


2Cov (b, a) 2Cov (b, b) 2Cov (b, c ) 2Cov (b, d ) ... 2Cov (b, n) (1)

a
b
c
d
e
.......
n

2Cov (c , a) 2Cov (c , b) 2Cov (c , c ) 2Cov (c , d ) .... 2Cov (c , n) (1)


2Cov (d , a) 2Cov (d , b) 2Cov (d , c ) 2Cov (d , d ) ...2Cov (d , n) (1)
=

2Cov (e , a) 2Cov (e , b) 2Cov (e , c ) 2Cov (e , d ) ... 2Cov (e , n) (1)

...............................................................................
2Cov (n, a) 2Cov (n, b) 2Cov (n, c ) 2Cov (n, d ) ... 2Cov (n, n) (1)
(1)

(1)

(1)

(1)

....

(1)

c
d
......
n

(0)

, b, , n
a,b,c,d,e,., n, . 1 0 ()
, ,
,
. 1 0 ,
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() , b, , n,
.
, .
,
(275):

0 ,6 1,2 0 ,1 0 ,4 0 ,1 0 ,3
1,2 2,2
0 ,2 0 ,7 0 ,1 0 ,5
0 ,1 0 ,2
0 ,1 0 ,1 0 ,0 0 ,1
0 ,4 0 ,7 0 ,1 0 ,3
0 ,0
0 ,2
0 ,1 0 ,1
0 ,0
0 ,0
0 ,0
0 ,0
0 ,3 0 ,5 0 ,1 0 ,2
0 ,0
0 ,1

0 ,112051
0 ,282432
0 ,157758
0 ,305270
0 ,42145
0 ,584091

0 ,11211
0 ,220274
0 ,002169
0 ,06493
0 ,001715
0 ,043688

-: {-0,11211,.,-0,043688},
,
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267

, , .. , .. , ..
, .. , .. .
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:

D( A)
D( )
D(B)
......
D(N )

+ 0 * D( A)
+ * D( )
b
0

j
= B + 0 * c D(B) ; D( A),..., D(N ) = +1 = 100%
j =1
......................

N + 0 * n D(N )

(276)

: , , ., N , , , N,
,
(268). , b, , , n
(275)
a,b,c,,n. , a
, b
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. D(A), D(), D(B),.,D(N)
, , , ., N,
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0,
. ,
, , 0.
.

2,37494%. :
269

() =

i ( )

* Pi ( ) ] + [ i ( ) * i ]
[ i ( ) * Pi ( ) ]

(277)

: i i- ; i
i- ()
() . i
i- , .

0, :

0 =

(278)

i * i

n=1

: .
. ,
.
,
. i-
(275) (274). 0 :
5 2,37
0 =
=
0 ,1 * 0 ,1 + 0 ,2 * 0 ,28 + 0 ,15 * 0 ,01 + 0 ,3 * 0 ,06 + 0 ,4 * 0 ,01 + 0 ,58 * 0 ,04
2,62506
=
= 86 ,06397
0 ,012 + 0 ,06 + 0 ,0003 + (0 ,0198) + 0 ,0072 + (0 ,0255)
5%
(276):

9,95% + 86 ,06 * 0 ,112 D( A) 9,54


+

*
(
)

D
A

0

+ * D( ) 45,2% + 86 ,06 * 0 ,2202 D( ) 19,409


0
b

6 ,73% + 86 ,06 * 0 ,002 D (B) 0 ,2539
+

=
*
(
)
B

D
B


0
c
......................
47,1% + 86 ,06 * 0 ,065 D( ) 5,116

10 ,9% + 86 ,06 * 0 ,002 D( ) 0 ,038


N + 0 * n D(N )
20% + 86 ,06 * 0 ,043 D( ) 3,959
1 100%.
, , , .
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5% 74,6% , 25,4% .

270

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.


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(276) , ,
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n 1
= n1 ( / )i 1

n =1

(279)


:
n

i =

Pi

n =1
j

PA

* 100

(280)

j =1

271

: .
i- ( ) ,
. n ,
. Pi i-
. P
, ,
.




()
:
n

Pi
n
=1

n 1
i = n1 ( / )i 1 * j
* 100 = i *
PA
n =1

(281)

j =1

?

.


:

0 ,6 1,2 0 ,1 0 ,4 0 ,1 0 ,3
1,2 2,2
0 ,2 0 ,7 0 ,1 0 ,5
0 ,1 0 ,2
0 ,1 0 ,1 0 ,0 0 ,1
0 ,4 0 ,7 0 ,1 0 ,3
0 ,0
0 ,2
0 ,1 0 ,1
0 ,0
0 ,0
0 ,0
0 ,0
0 ,3 0 ,5 0 ,1 0 ,2
0 ,0
0 ,1

0 ,0133
0 ,032915
0 ,018465
0 ,034773
0 ,02305
0 ,125543

0 ,001304
0 ,00086
0 ,00291
0 ,000742
0 ,00069
0 ,002414

, ,
. 0
:

272

0 =

.
n

i * i

n =1

5 2,374937
=
0 ,0133 * 0 ,001304 + 0 ,032915 * (0 ,00086) + 0 ,018465 * (0 ,00291) +
+ 0 ,034773 * 0 ,000742 + (0 ,02305) * (0 ,00069) + 0 ,125543 * 0 ,002414

2,625063
= 10701,1
0 ,0000173448 0 ,0000284378 8 0 ,000053649 + 0 ,000025796 6342 +

+
0
,
0000159084
13209
+
0
,
000303034
332469248
000

0, ,
. :

9,95% + 10701,1 * 0 ,001304 0 ,2118 21,18%


+ 0 * D( A)
+ * D( ) 45,2% + 10701,1 * 0 ,00086 0 ,3777 37,77%

0
b

6 ,73% + 10701,1 * 0 ,00291 0 ,1827 18 ,27%

B + 0 * c D(B) =
......................
47,1% + 10701,1 * 0 ,000742 0 ,5353 53,53%

10 ,9% + 10701,1 * 0 ,00069 0 ,0502 5,02%

N + 0 * n D(N ) 20% + 10701,1 * 0 ,002414 0 ,0077 0 ,77%

, , ,
n ,
, .

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21,18% , 28,64% , 0% ,
44,39% , 5,02% , 0,77% .
, .
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n
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273


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(282)

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(278),
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VaR Value at Risk
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(284)

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277

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100.. 10%, 120..
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:
4

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n =1


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294

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1
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100%

2 5
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40% 45%
65% 70%
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30%

40%

100% 200%

220%

(B W. H. Beaver),
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295


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Z-. Z-
,
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296

. ,
( ).
,
:

Z = b 1 x 1 + + b 5 x 5

(293)

,

1963 2010 ( 10 ,
).
:
1)
1968.


. Z 1.91:

Z = 1,2A+1,4B+3,3C+0,6D+0,999E

(294)

: A = ( )/( )
= ( )/( )
= ( )/( )
D = ( )/( )
= ( )/( )

.
2)
1972.
-:
D:
D = ( )/( )

Z = 1,2A+1,2B+3,3C+0,6D+E

(295)

:
A = ( )/( )
= ( )/( )
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= ( )/( )

297


D .
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:

*
.
,
.
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,
410 420.
:
(
),
(
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Excel. (
):

Z ( ) = 1,2A+1,4B+3,3C+0,6D+0,999E = n
Z ( ) = 1,2A+1,4B+3,3C+0,6D+0,999E = u
u-n ,
.
Z :
: Z

Z
1,8
1,81 2,7
2,71 2,99
3,0

298

3) 1983 -:
, , :

Z = 1,2 * 1 + 1,4 * 2 + 3,3 * 3 + 0,6 * 4 + 5

(296)

1 /
2 /
3 /
4 /
5 /

:

Z ( ) = 1,2 * 1 + 1,4 * 2 + 3,3 * 3 + 0,6 * 4 + 5 = n


Z ( 7) = 1,2 * 1 + 1,4 * 2 + 3,3 * 3 + 0,6 * 4 + 5 = u
u-n ,
.
Z : [14,
+22], , Z>2,99
, , Z<1,81 , ,
, [1,812,99] , ,
.


.
.
(297):

Z = 0 ,3877 + (1,0736) * CR + 0 ,0579 * . _ _

Z = 0 ,3877 + (1,0736) * L1 + 0 ,0579 * F 13


0 . Z 0
, 500
.

299



,
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1979 ,
2,5 . , 88,0%;
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1, 2007 ,
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.
1999/2000 . .
2
80% .
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,

1

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2007.
2
, 1999/2000 .

300

,
. . Z :

Z = 1,03*A+3,07*B+0,66*C+0,4*D

(298)

: A = ( )/( );
= ( (
))/( );
= ( (= +
))/( );
D = ()/( ).
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0,862.
, 1984

-
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:


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( ).
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) .
.

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H = 5,528 * V1 + 0 ,212 * V2 + 0 ,073 * V3 + 1,270 * V4 0 ,120 * V5 +


+ 2,335 * V6 + 0 ,575 * V7 + 1,083 * V8 + 0 ,894 *V 96 ,075

301

1: V1 = ( )/( )
V2 = ()/( )
V3 = ( )/( )
V4 = ( /
/)/( )
V5 = ( )/( )
V6 = ( )/( )
V7 = log( )
V8 = ( )/( )
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: log .

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0 . 01
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302

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= c0+c11 + 22 + 33 + 44,
:
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4=

L1 (CR) = CR =

(300)

(301)

n=
0,4 ,
; 1 , 2 , 3
4 .

:

= 0 +0,531+0,132+0,183+0,164
1973 4 :
4=/

( ) = 0 +0,531+0,132+0,183+0,164
( ) = 0 +0,531+0,132+0,183+0,164
PAS/.
303

(302)

PAS/> 50% ( 1970- ), ,


, 50%
.
1973 PAS (
4). PAS
30%, . PAS 20%,

.


()
80
-
(1930 2010). , .
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,
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( 1976 1987 ),
R. R
:

R = 8,38*1 + 2 + 0,054*3 + 0,63*4

(303)

: 1 /
2 /
3 /
4 /
, ,
1 :

R ( ) = 8,38*1 + 2 + 0,054*3 + 0,63*4


R ( ) = 8,38*1 + 2 + 0,054*3 + 0,63*4
: R
, 1-4 ,
.

,
.

304

1 3 ,
R , :
: R
R
0
0-1,8
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3,2-4,2
4,2

, %
(90-100)
(60-80)
(35-50)
(15-20)
( 10)



.. 2003 . 200
1995
1998 . ,
5 .
:

= 0,111*X1+13,239*X2+1,676*X3+0,515*X4+3,8*X5

(304)


:
X1 :
/
X2 : /
X3 : /
X4 : /
X5 : /
( ):

( ) = 0,111X1+13,239X2+1,676X3+0,515X4+3,8X5
( ) = 0,111X1+13,239X2+1,676X3+0,515X4+3,8X5
*
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.

305

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(305)

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(306)

: .
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306


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(307)

(308)

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307

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:

Z= 0,063 *1 + 0,092*2 + 0,057*3 + 0,001*4

(309)

1 = /
2 = ( + )/
3 = /
4 = ./
Z = 0,037 .
- , , 2008/2009
(
) 2008
-
308

. -
:
-

/
1
2
3
1
>30%
>20%
>10%
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4
>0%; <10%
12; 30
>0%; <5%
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30

: 1 ,
() ():

1 = /

(310)
2 ,
:

2 = / ( )

(311)
: ;
.
3 ()
().

3 = /

(312)
4
( , ):

4 = /

(313)

. .
, .
, . , . , . , .
, . , . , . ,
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-

I (314):

I = 1,5 * 1 + 0 ,08 * 2 + 10 * 3 + 5 * 4 + 0 ,3 * 5 + 0 ,1 * 6
: 1
;
2
309

;
3
;
4
();
5 ;
6 .
3,
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1 2,
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2012, 2013 2014 .
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2) 2
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.
310

:

.
,
( 1 ),
( 2 ),
( 3 ).

().
Z ,
.

- :
1 :

Z1 = 2,6803 51,3394X1 + 10,087X2 + 4,4145X3 + 2,0318X4 + 2,6314X5

(315)

: Z , ,
1 ;
1 ,
, ;
2 ;
3
;
4 ;
5 .
= 3,1492
2 :

Z2 = 0,1837 + 4,6524X1 - 16,5456X2 + 3,2732X3 1,7381X4 + 0,0738X5 (316)


: Z , ,
2 ;
1
;
2 ,
, ;
3 ;
4 ;
5 .
= 0,1663
3 :

311

Z3 = 0,2153 18,3474X1 + 3,3847X2 + 2,3601X3 1,9230X4 + 0,0617X5

(317)

: Z , ,
1 ;
1 ,
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2
;
3 ;
4 ;
5
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= 0,3355
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312

313

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KG. KG :
: KG
KG

, %%

0,048

-0,026

-0,068

-0,107

-0,164

90

70

50

30

10

KG :

KG=-0,16X1-0,22X2+0,87X3+0,10X4-0,24X5

(318)

: 1 (
260+250+240) ( )
2 ( 490 + 510)
( )
3 (2 (. 150) + 4(.170)
( %%)) - (2 (. 010)).
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(5 (. 720)/2(. 029)
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.
314

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.
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.
, 2002, 2007, 2009


.


.
.






.

. , ,
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: 1 2.
.. 1967 , 1968 ,
(, 1982), (, 1981),
(, 1977.), (1974., ),
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(, 1988.), (1997.), - (, 1982.), ,
(, 1991).

(, 1993.), (1990.), (1994.), ,
(1998.), (1999.) .
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315


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1 . ,
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1979), -, (1985, ), - (, 1988),
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). -
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316

1 ,
- .
2 ,
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.
I) Z -
1) 1968 , .
) : 3 :

Z A(3) = 0 + 0 ,12 * X 1 + 0 ,014 * X 2 + 0 ,033 * X 3 + 0 ,006 * X 4 + 0 ,0099 * X 5

(319)

: 1 :
( ) ():

X 1 = /

(320)

2 ( / (/)
()) ():

X 2 = ( / + ) /

(321)

3 .
/EBIT/, ,
() (070
(070) (%%),
070 /, 12,75
2010 2011./).
():

X 3 = ( + 070 + %%) /

(322)

4 ()
():

X 4 = /

(323)

5 () ():

X 5 = /

(324)

+0,0229 .
) : 2 (325):
317

Z A(2) = 0 + 0 ,12 * X 1 + 0 ,014 * X 2 + 0 ,033 * X 3 + 0 ,006 * X 4 + 0 ,0099 * X 5


1 5 .
: +0,0221 .
) : 1 (326):

Z A(1) = 0 + 0 ,12 * X 1 + 0 ,014 * X 2 + 0 ,033 * X 3 + 0 ,006 * X 4 + 0 ,0099 * X 5


1 5 .
: +0,0190.
2) 1968 ,
) : 3 (327):

Z A(3) = 0 ,133 0 ,016 * X 1 + 0 ,014 * X 2 + 0 ,068 * X 3 + 0 ,000 * X 4 0 ,132 * X 5


1 5 .
: +0,0574.
) : 2 (328):

Z A(2) = 0 ,133 0 ,016 * X 1 + 0 ,014 * X 2 + 0 ,068 * X 3 + 0 ,000 * X 4 0 ,132 * X 5


1 5 .
: 0,1203, .
) : 1 (329):

Z A(1) = 0 ,133 0 ,016 * X 1 + 0 ,014 * X 2 + 0 ,068 * X 3 + 0 ,000 * X 4 0 ,132 * X 5


1 5 .
: 0,1757, .
( ).
6% 1 3% 2
(: 5% ) 01
.
28% 1 6% 2,
17%
.
52% 1.
.
: .
: ,
.
.
: .
: 5.
318

:
1946 1965 (19 ).
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(, , 1979.).
II) Z(B) (, , 1979.)
-
1) 1979
) : 3 (330):
Z (B3 ) = 0 ,45 0 ,15 * X 6 4 ,55 * X 7 0 ,17 * X 5 + 1,57 * X 8 + 5,03 * X 2
: 6 // ( )
():

6 = /

(331)

7 () ():

7 = /

(332)

5 , (/).
8 ()
(). , , ,
,
() . ,
, , .
.

, , ,
. ,
.
,
: ,
, ,
. ,
,
. , 8
:

8 = /

(333)

2 :
319

X 2 = ( / + ) /

(334)

: 0,4955, .
) : 2 (335):
Z (B2 ) = 0 ,45 0 ,15 * X 6 4 ,55 * X 7 0 ,17 * X 5 + 1,57 * X 8 + 5,03 * X 2
2, 5, 8, 7, 6 .
: 0,8523, .
) : 1 (336):
Z (B1 ) = 0 ,45 0 ,15 * X 6 4 ,55 * X 7 0 ,17 * X 5 + 1,57 * X 8 + 5,03 * X 2
2, 5, 8, 7, 6 .
: 1,5495, .
2) 1979
) : 3 (337):
Z (B3 ) = 0 ,218 0 ,008 * X 6 + 0 ,003 * X 7 + 0 ,107 * X 5 0 ,029 * X 8 0 ,006 * X 2
2, 5, 8, 7, 6 .
: 0,0737, .
) : 2 (338):
Z (B2 ) = 0 ,218 0 ,008 * X 6 + 0 ,003 * X 7 + 0 ,107 * X 5 0 ,029 * X 8 0 ,006 * X 2
2, 5, 8, 7, 6 .
: +0,4924.
) : 1 (339):
Z (B1 ) = 0 ,218 0 ,008 * X 6 + 0 ,003 * X 7 + 0 ,107 * X 5 0 ,029 * X 8 0 ,006 * X 2
2, 5, 8, 7, 6 .
: 0,2145, .
( ).
1 1 2
,
32% .
2 1 2
27%
.
3 1 2
29%
.
:
.

320

: ,
, . : .
: 1
5 -, 2
.
: .
:
1950 1975 (25 ).

-
.
.
III) - (OV)
-


()

, .
, .
, .
.
.
1) - -
) : 3 (340):
OV = +0 ,2153 18 ,3474 * X 9 + 3,3847 * X 16 + 2,3601 * X 13 1,9230 * X 14 + 0 ,0617 * X 17

-: 9
() ()
().
,
:

9 = ( + ) /

(341)

16 / ()
()
() ():

16 = ( + ) /( + )

(342)

13
/ ()/ (+)
321

// (). ready money, ,



.

13 = ( + ) /

(343)

: , , ,
, , 01 ,
!
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()
() (=-):

14 = ( + + ) / = ( + + ) /( )

(344)

17 .
/EBIT/,
, ()
(070 (070)
(%%), 070
/, 12,75 2010 2011./).
()
().

X 17 = ( + 070 + %%) /( + )

(345)

: 0,2047, .
) : 2 (346):
OV = +0 ,1837 + 4 ,6524 * 10 16 ,5456 * 9 + 3,2732 * 13 1,7381 * X 14 + 0 ,0738 * X 15

: 9 ((+)/), 13 ((+)/), 14
((++)/) .
10 ()
() ():

10 = /( + )

(346)

15 () ().

.

,
.
322


:

.

15 = /

(347)

: 0,2497, .
) : 1 (348):
OV = +2,6803 51,3394 * 9 + 10 ,0870 * 10 + 4 ,4115 * 11 + 2,0318 * 12 + 2,6314 * 13

: 11 ()
().

(
). ,
.

11 = /

(348)

12 ()
() ().

12 = /( + )

(349)

9 ((+)/), 13 ((+)/), 10 (/(+))


.
: +2,0996.
, . , -

.
, .
2) -, 2002.
) : 3 (350):
OV = 0 ,735 + 0 ,044 * X 9 + 0 ,032 * X 16 + 4 ,137 * X 13 + 0 ,010 * X 14 + 0 ,031 * X 17

: 9, 16, 13, 14, 17 .


: 0,4459, .
) : 2 (351):
OV = 0 ,290 + 0 ,058 * 10 + 0 ,760 * 9 + 3,740 * 13 1,252 * X 14 + 0 ,011 * X 15

: 10, 9, 13, 14, 15 .


: 0,3420, .
323

) : 1 (352):
OV = 0 ,653 + 0 ,125 * 9 + 0 ,003 * 10 + 0 ,142 * 11 + 0 ,005 * 12 + 3,078 * 13

: 9, 10, 11, 12, 13 .


: 0,4515, .
- ( ).
-
(IFRS), ,
. 1980- ,
-.
,
.
1977
1980 (03 ). ,
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, - .
- 05
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.

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IV) (1985, )
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3 5
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324

, ,
!

. , ,
, ,
! .. ,

. .
,
,
.
Z . , ,
- , Z
. . (U):

ez
1
U= z
=
e + 1 (1 + 1 )
ez

(353)

: , 2,718281828.
z, Z:

Z = 0 + 1 * x1 + 2 * x 2 + 3 * x 3 + ... + n * x n

(354)

: 0 , 1, 2, 3, ., n
- . 1, 2, 3, , n
, .

U, Z , , Z ,
, U
. Z
.
1) -
) : 3 (355):

Z (3) = 1,51150 + 0 ,06257 * X 18 + 0 ,00829 * X 19 + 0 ,4248 * X 20


0 ,01549 * X 21 + 0 ,00519 * X 6 + 0 ,01822 * X 22 + 0 ,00002 * X 5

325

: 18
- ()
():

18 = /

(356)

19 () ():

19 = /

(357)

20 ()
() ():

20 = ( + ) /

(358)

21
. ,
( ()
()), / /

().
( , (169) (168)).

21 = ( + + ) /( + )

(359)

6 // ( )
():

6 = /

(360)

5 () ():

X 5 = /

(361)

22 ,
() ().
, , ,
, .
,
, .

(). ():

22 = ( + ) / = ( + ) /
326

(362)

: +0,1829.
) : 2 (363):

Z (2) = 2,61060 + 0 ,04185 * X 18 + 0 ,02215 * X 19 + 0 ,11231 * X 20


0 ,02690 * X 21 0 ,01440 * X 6 + 0 ,04464 * X 22 + 0 ,00063 * X 5
18, 19, 20, 21, 6, 22, 5 .
: +0,0672.
) : 1 (364):

Z (1) = 0 ,23883 + 0 ,00108 * X 18 + 0 ,01583 * X 19 + 0 ,10780 * X 20


0 ,03074 * X 21 0 ,00486 * X 6 + 0 ,04350 * X 22 0 ,00110 * X 5
18, 19, 20, 21, 6, 22, 5 .
: +0,4340.
2) , 2001.
-
.
) : 3 (365):

Z (3) = +0 ,462 + 0 ,009 * X 18 + 0 ,001 * X 19 + 3,065 * X 20 +


+ 0 ,314 * X 21 + 0 ,029 * X 6 + 0 ,001 * X 22 0 ,038 * X 5
18, 19, 20, 21, 6, 22, 5 .
: +0,7233.
) : 2 (366):

Z (2) = +0 ,656 + 0 ,020 * X 18 + 0 ,001 * X 19 + 4 ,974 * X 20 +


+ 0 ,252 * X 21 0 ,001 * X 6 + 0 ,0000 * X 22 0 ,079 * X 5
18, 19, 20, 21, 6, 22, 5 .
: +0,7371.
) : 1 (367):

Z (1) = +1,596 + 0 ,001 * X 18 0 ,001 * X 19 + 1,528 * X 20


0 ,962 * X 21 0 ,010 * X 6 + 0 ,001 * X 22 0 ,053 * X 5
18, 19, 20, 21, 6, 22, 5 .
: +0,9150.
.
.
:
.

327

.
1972 1978 .
10 11 ()
, , ,
.
-
.
05 .
,
-.
V) - (1988, )
(01.03.1954
). , -, -
, (1976),
(1980) // (1982). -

, ,
,

3 5 .
,
, 1990 ,

2009.
-
: - .
1) - (GG)
1.1)
) : 3 (368):

GG (3) = +4 ,423 2,044 * X 23 + 4 ,421 * X 1 4 ,404 * X 24 2,778 * X 11 + 4 ,423 * X 25


1 14 .
23 .
()
(). , (
(173)):
328

23 = /

(369)
24 () ().

24 = /

(370)
25 EBITDA . EBITDA
Earnings Before Taxes Depreciation and Amortization
, ,
.
() (
070 , 2 (070))
( ,
, 070 2 (%%))
() ( 140 5
/ / :
, ).

25 = EBITDA / = ( + 070 + %% + ) /

(371)

: +2,5515.
) : 2 (372):

GG (2) = +4 ,423 2,044 * X 23 + 4 ,421 * X 1 4 ,404 * X 24 2,778 * X 11 + 4 ,423 * X 25


23, 1, 24, 11, 25 .
: +2,2070.
) : 1 (373):

GG (1) = +4 ,423 2,044 * X 23 + 4 ,421 * X 1 4 ,404 * X 24 2,778 * X 11 + 4 ,423 * X 25


23, 1, 24, 11, 25 .
: +2,2441.
1.2) /LOGIT/ GG
) : 3 (374):

1
( +3 ,548+ 5 ,585* 1 8 ,504* 24+ 13 , 070* 11)
GG = ( +3 ,548+ 5 ,585* 1 8 ,504* 24+ 13 , 070* 11)
=
1

+1

1 + ( +3 ,548+ 5 ,585* 1 8 ,504* 24+ 13 , 070* 11)

, +2,71828183.
. :

+ 3 , 548 + 5 , 585 * 1 8 , 504 * 24 + 13 , 070 * 11

329

(375)


.
1, 24 11 .
: +0,9573.
) : 2 (376):

1
( +3 ,548+ 5 ,585* 1 8 ,504* 24+ 13 , 070* 11)
GG = ( +3 ,548+ 5 ,585* 1 8 ,504* 24+ 13 , 070* 11)
=
1

+1

1 + ( +3 ,548+ 5 ,585* 1 8 ,504* 24+ 13 , 070* 11)

.
1, 24 11 .
: +0,9848 /
+0,9573 /.
) : 1 (377):

1
( +3 ,548+ 5 ,585* 1 8 ,504* 24+ 13 , 070* 11)
GG = ( +3 ,548+ 5 ,585* 1 8 ,504* 24+ 13 , 070* 11)
=
1

+1

1 + ( +3 ,548+ 5 ,585* 1 8 ,504* 24+ 13 , 070* 11)

.
1, 24 11 .
: +0,9444.
2) - (GG)
2.1) -
) : 3 (378):

GG (3) = 0 ,017 + 0 ,002 * X 23 + 0 ,001 * X 1 0 ,014 * X 24 + 0 ,203 * X 11 + 0 ,000 * X 25


23, 1, 24, 11, 25 .
: 0,0043, .
) : 2 (379):

GG (2) = 0 ,017 + 0 ,002 * X 23 + 0 ,001 * X 1 0 ,014 * X 24 + 0 ,203 * X 11 + 0 ,000 * X 25


23, 1, 24, 11, 25 .
: 0,0006, .
) : 1 (380):

GG (2) = 0 ,017 + 0 ,002 * X 23 + 0 ,001 * X 1 0 ,014 * X 24 + 0 ,203 * X 11 + 0 ,000 * X 25


23, 1, 24, 11, 25 .
: 0,0033, .
2.2) /LOGIT/ GG
330

) : 3 (390):

( +1 , 473+ 0 , 000* 1 0 , 001* 24 + 0 , 051* 11)


1
GG = ( +1 , 473+ 0 , 000* 1 0 , 001* 24 + 0 , 051* 11)
=
1

+1

1 + ( +1 , 473+ 0 , 000* 1 0 , 001* 24 + 0 , 051* 11)

+ 1 , 473 + 0 , 000 * 1 0 , 001 * 24 + 0 , 051 * 11

(391)

: +0,8142.
) : 2 (392):

( +1 , 473+ 0 , 000* 1 0 , 001* 24 + 0 , 051* 11)


1
GG = ( +1 , 473+ 0 , 000* 1 0 , 001* 24 + 0 , 051* 11)
=
1

+1

1 + ( +1 , 473+ 0 , 000* 1 0 , 001* 24 + 0 , 051* 11)

: +0,8142 ( ).
) : 1 (393):

( +1 , 473+ 0 , 000* 1 0 , 001* 24 + 0 , 051* 11)


1
GG = ( +1 , 473+ 0 , 000* 1 0 , 001* 24 + 0 , 051* 11)
=
1

+1

1 + ( +1 , 473+ 0 , 000* 1 0 , 001* 24 + 0 , 051* 11)

: +0,8138.
- -.
VI) - (1990, 2009., )
- :

1
ez
= z
=
e + 1 (1 + 1 )
ez

(394)

Z,
,
.
1) -
) : 3 (395):

Z (3) = 6 ,4202 + 1,5599 * X 21 + 0 ,3010 * X 26 + 0 ,8799 * X 5 + 0 ,4216 * X 27


: 21
, .
26 , ()
().

331

26 = /

(396)
27 () ().

27 = /

(397)

: +0,1387.
) : 2 (398):

Z (2) = 3,3612 8 ,4286 * 18 + 2,7244 * X 1 + 0 ,1081 * X 28 + 0 ,01947 * X 6


1, 6 .
18 - ()
():

18 = /

(399)

28 ()
(). ,
: - ,
,
, , , ,
, , .
.

28 = /

(400)

: +0,0131.
) : 1 (401):

Z (1) = 0 ,0881 0 ,0316 * 4 + 0 ,2710 * X 26 + 0 ,3227 * X 27


4, 26, 27 .
: +0,7939.
2) -
) : 3 (402):

Z (3) = +1,059 + 0 ,074 * X 21 + 0 ,001 * X 26 0 ,067 * X 5 + 0 ,024 * X 27


.
: +0,1387.
) : 2 (403):

Z (2) = +1,280 + 0 ,007 * 18 + 0 ,151 * X 1 + 0 ,064 * X 28 + 0 ,001 * X 6


18, 1, 28, 6 .
: +0,7853.
) : 1 (404):
332

Z (1) = +2,017 + 1,318 * 4 0 ,0000 * X 26 + 0 ,035 * X 27


.
: +0,8980.
VII) , ;
-
: , , . ,
. ,
, , ,
.
,
.
, -,

.

-.


. .
,
(
),
, .
-

(
):

1
1

=
*
10
3
*

+
+
1

1
1

(405)

:
. , 2,71828182845905.
- , (406):

333

( ) * 1 * * + () * 2 * * + () * 3 * * +

+ ( ) * 1 * * + () * 2 * * + () * 3 * * +

+ ( ) * 1 * * + () * 2 * * + () * 3 * * +

+ ( ) * 1 * * + () * 2 * * + () * 3 * * +

+ ( ) * 1 * * + () * 2 * * + () * 3 * * +

+ ( ) * 1 * * + () * 2 * * + () * 3 * * +

+ ( ) * 1 * * + () * 2 * * + () * 3 * * +

+ ( ) * 1 * * + () * 2 * * + () * 3 * * +

+ ( ) * 1 * * + () * 2 * * + () * 3 * * +

+ ( ) * 1 * * + () * 2 * * + () * 3 * * +

+ ( ) * 1 * * + () * 2 * * + () * 3 * * +

+ ( ) * 1 * * + () * 2 * * + () * 3 * * +
=
72
: -
. 0, ,
.
=0,00000 , ,

/ 0
/.
, () ().
,
2000- ( ).
,
1970- 1980- .
.
, 0,3 (30%).
, 0,7 (70%).

,

. . .
1975 2010
, .
- ,
( ).

334

, ,
,
1,015. ,
, 0,75.
()
, (3-
).
()
, (2-
).
()
, (1-
).

: 0 (
) 1 (
).
,
-.
: 1 ,
0,
.
,
-.
: 1 ,
0,
.

//, -.
: 1
, 0,
.

//, -.
: 1
, 0,
.
335

-,
-.
: 1 ,
0,
.
-,
-.
: 1 ,
0,
.
,
-.
: 1 ,
0,
.
,
-.
: 1 ,
0,
.
-,
-.
: 1 ,
0,
.
-,
-.
: 1 ,
0,
.
-,
-.
: 1 ,
0,
.
-,
-.
336

: 1 ,
0,
.
3- (
-), ,
,
, , -
.
, .
(+/ 0,25 3)
3- ,
.
,
, ,
.
, ,

-
. ,
, , , ,
, ,
, ,
:

.?!
. ---, , 2009/2010:

,

BSM-, BSM-. BSM
1999
-. , , , ,
BSM /
/ . ,
,
337

--.

,
,
1999 2011 . BSM .
, , 1998
. --, ,
BSM
78% 100% ,
. , ,
10% 100%, ,
BSM-,
,
10% + 78% = 88%! ,
BSM-

. ,
, BSM-
. ,
. BSM
, BSM 1975
1995 ,
1999 .
,
,
92% 98%,
, BSM-,

. : , ,
- BSM
.
, ,
BSM-,
, MS Excel,
.
338

, BSM-
--- (, ,
, -
BSM-,
, ). BSM-
, --, .
. 2009

, , . . -
.

,
, .
. ,
.
1) :
:
:

, i

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

0,23883

/
/
(+)/
(+(1.))/
/(-)
/(-)
/(+)

-0,108
-1,583
-10,78
3,074
0,486
-4,35
0,11

(407)
(408)
(409)
(410)
(411)
(412)
(413)

: (1.)
01 . b0
:
.
- . .
. .
.
, . .
. .
339

. ,
.
Income of Continuing Operations
.

, .
, ,
(
FAS; ). (Revenue)
(Cost of revenue) (Gross
profit).
, (operating profit).
, ,
, .
(extraordinary),
(Net income).

,

(net income applicable to common shares). ,
,
.
. ,
,
, . ,
().
.
,
,
.
, ,
. ,
.
, , , .
, :

= 0 0 ,108 * 1 1,583 * 2 10 ,78 * 3 + 3,074 * 4 +


+ 0 ,486 * 5 4 ,35 * 6 + 0 ,11 * 7

340

(414)

1
1 +

(415)

: ,
. , 2,718281828.
.

700 . , , 0,87
, 87%.
!
( -
( - ), - ). ,
, ():

1
1

=
1 + 1 + (1 )

(416)


1:

+ = 1

(417)

,
, .
.
. . .
:
: , . .


( 1 )


( )

( )
()

341

2 450
2 542
1 951
21 710
28 653
11 423
3 657
9 480
4 094

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

0,2388
-0,0073
-0,1402
-0,9219
1,3435
0,141
-0,9232
0,1832
-0,0861

28 699
18 212
5 489
4 998

0,5215

(%)

52,15%

52,15%
700 . ,
, , 50%.
2)
, ,

. ,
.
, ,
.
-. - ,
:
/ /, ( ), (

),

1,
/ (
), (
2). ,
. , ,
, , ,
:

C

* n 2 * ((1 + y )n+ 1 (1 + y )) nF


=
(C / y ) * ((1 + y )n+ 1 (1 + y )) + F (1 + y )

(418)

: n ;
; F ;
C=Fc .
0
1

,
.
2
,
.
365 360,
.

,
.

342

.
0.
,

,
, .

.
-
:

C 1 2 2 2 C
= r * S * + * * S * 2 = r * C
t
S 2
S

(419)

: S. r
. t .
.
-
.
- (Schroeder & Clark, 1998).
. -,
(PVSPX-D) (PV Present Value) ( ) - ( , Ex-dividends, ,
):

PVSPX D =

SP
(1 + ARQD / 4)T *4

(420)

-
, 4.
, ; 01
. ARQD
/ (
). SP
/ /.

PVEP: ( ):

PVEP =

EP
(1 + BEY / 2)T *2

(421)

343

: ( ). BEY bond equivalent yield


, .

(QV):

QV = V * T

(422)

: V .
, -.
-.

(%PVSP), (%PVEP)
- (COV).
,
. ,
Excel.
. %PVSP:
%PVSP = (ln(PVSPX D / PVEP ) / QV + QV / 2)

(423)

%PVEP:
%PVEP = (ln(PVSPX D / PVEP ) / QV QV / 2)

(424)

, (%PVSP) (%PVEP) - 1974


.
,
, (%PVSP) :

ln(VA / X ) + (rf div 2 / 2) * T


%PVSP =
A* T

(425)

(%PVEP) :

ln(VA / X ) + (rf div 2 / 2) * T


%PVEP =
A * T
A* T

(426)

: VA ;
; rf
; div
,

344

VA;
.
-
, ,
,
BSM (Black-Sholes-Merton)
.

-, (
), BSM.
BSM
(t), :

VA (t ) + div VA (t 1)
; rf
V
t

(
1
)

(t ) = max

(427)

: t .
BSM -, BSM? ,
. , . , . ,
. (
, , ).
-, ,
BSM .
COV :

COV = PVSPX D * %PVSP + PVEP * %PVEP

(428)

, ,
1, , ,
,
. , ,
.
-.
.
.
, 01
2011 01 2012 .
200 280$ ( ). ,
345

237$
01.01.2011.. , , 01. ,
72%.
/ (
) 3%.
7%. , /
.
: -

C / /
(SP)
C /
/ (EP)
C (T),
(V)

(ARQD)
(BEY)

237
280
1

-
- / / (PVSPX-D)
PV exP (PVEP)
(QV)

230,02
261,38
0,72

0,72

(%PVSP)

0,5724

0,03

(%PVEP)

-0,2955

0,07

- (COV)

54,437

, ( 200)
, ,
. 30 . ...
54,437*200*30=326 620,83.
. , ,
63,1%
!
- ,
1 (SWAP).
()
2 ED 162-B, FASB (
). -
, , LIBOR. , ,
, ,
1

/
/

.
2
: Bob Jensen: Legal settlement exit value amortization rate accounting for
custom interest rate: Swaps having no market trading//Trinity University working paper #231,
24.01.1999.

346

. :
. (SRR Swap
receivable rate) (SPR Swap payable rate),
, , SNR (Swap net rate):

SNR i = SRR i SPR i = E i

(429)

i i- .
F / NA
(Notional Amount)/.
.
NCRP (Notional cash receivable/payable),
G:

NCRPi = G = E i * Fi = (SRR i SPR i ) * F

(430)

:
(LSR legal settlement receivable)
(LSP legal settlement payable).
.
ED 162-B, FASB (
). G , ,
. . ED 162-B
.

. Excel (,
, ED 162-B
)
( ).
,
( , ),
( G,
), (N-t). N
, . t
- (0, 1, 2, 3,., N). ,
0. ,

.
347

, , ,
L, :

L =

(431)


- :

= Lt L(t 1)

(432)

i- .

.
, L
,
.


- .
,

, ,
.
: , .
-
, , LIBOR,
,

.
.
-
150000 .. 4 .
LIBOR. 1,51% LIBOR, 9,15%.
LIBOR 7%.
LIBOR ,
, ,
, LIBOR.
LIBOR, .

348

, ,
.
.
: ED 162-B
A ()

B
(LIBOR)

C
(SRR)

D
(SPR)

E (SNR)

F (G
)
(NCRP)

()

0
1

7,00%
6,80%

8,51%
8,31%

9,15%
9,15%

-0,64%
-0,84%

150 000
150 000

-960
-1260

3 902,24
3 844,40

-3 902,24
-3 844,40

7,20%

8,71%

9,15%

-0,44%

150 000

-660

1 328,76

-1 328,76

7,60%

9,11%

9,15%

-0,04%

150 000

-60

60,02

-60,02

8,00%

9,51%

9,15%

0,36%

150 000

540

0,00

0,00

L (PV)

M
()
0
57,83
2
515,64
1
268,74
60,02

, .
,
63,15%.
, ,
,
,
.
-,
, , ,
.
(, )
,
, !

:
.
.

-, , .
,

-.

349


, , .
, , 2009/2010



: .


(1935
/,
.
,
(1899 1979))
. (1890 1962),

.
. ,
,
. .
1
700 ( 10000
). 63,82% 84,62%
.
: ,
, , ,
2005/2006, 2009
. : ,
, .

1
Q=
P
1+ e

(433)

Q .
,
1. , .

350

, =1, =0.
(434):

P = 0 ,703 0 ,406 * 1 1,423 * 2 2,156 * 3 0 ,088 * 4 0 ,396 * 5 0 ,246 * 6


: 1 : ()
().

1 = /

(435)
2 : () ().

2 = /

(436)

3 : / .

3 = /

(437)

4 EBIT (). EBIT


,
.

4 = EBIT /

(438)

5 (). (COGS Cost of Goods Sold


).
,

. ,
, ,
. ,
,
.

5 = /

(439)

6 .
,
2009 .
()
:

= log e ( A) = ln( A) = 6

(440)

: ln ( )
,
. .
351

. .. ,
. ..
, ,
, . ..
=1
3 .
50%, =1, =0.
=1
2- .
.
, , ,
.
: .
.
:
, ,
98,5% 100,0%
..

, , 100%
, .
2009/2010
1980-
. ,
,
1 2009/2010 .
:

1
=
=
1 + 1 +

(441)


(2,71828...). .
(442):
1

: . , . (2003, 2007, 2009/2010).

352

O = 5,91 + 0 ,04 * ln( A! ) + 0 ,08 * O!1 +0 ,01 * O!2 0 ,01 * O3 + 1,20 * O!4 +0 ,18 * O!5 +
+ 0 ,01 * O!6 +1,59 * O!7 1,10 * O!8
: ! ,
. ln()
(
. .. ($)!). 1
. 2
. 3
. 4 . 5
: ,
, . 6 ,
: 1 (
) 0 ( ). 7 ,
: 0 (
/ / ) 1 (

). 8
:

8 =

t t 1
|t | + |t 1 |

(443)

: t , , (t 1)
, , || , ,
.
, ,
,
2 .
.
1%, .

5% , 100%
, 1% -. 1%
30% ; 2% 50%
; 3% 75% ; 4%
90% ; 5% 100% .
, 1%,
, .
353

, ,
.
-.
, .
, ,
, .

, :
.

,
,
.
,
.

.

1940- 1960- .
, ,
,
, , ,
, .

- .
.
. ,
.
,
,
: , ,
..

354

1 ,
. .
.
,
, , (margin, , ,
, .).
.
. , , ,

. ,
.
, ,
,
. TR Total Revenue . ATR
( ). FC Fixed Costs
. AFC Average Fixed Costs
. VC Variable Costs
. AVC Average Variable Costs
. TC Total Costs . ATC Average
Total Costs . TP
Total Profit ,
; ATP
(Average Total Profit). MR Margin Revenue ,
. MC Margin Costs , .
.
,
. - ,
, , ..
. ,

. , , , 1
, , ,
: , , , ,
.. ,
1


, , .

355

.
, ,

!

,
, :
:

,
, .
(, ,
) .
, ,
.
(
),
356

. 1985

. 1982
.

.
.

,
,
1.
. ,
, ,
,
. ,
1950- 1960-
. ,
,
.
,
.
, .
.
,
, 100% .

1980- 1990- 2000- .
,
.
,
,

,
1

R. Kaplan, Th. Johnson Relevance lost: The rise and fall of management accounting, 1987,
2007

357

. ,
. , , .

, (FC)
(VC) ,
.
, , ,
, :
,

,
! ,

, . ,
,

!
,
,
. ,
. ,
,
, . 2009
12,3%, 2010 13,9%!
2008, 2007, 2006, 2005 .
, (2,3%
), !
, , ?!
-? ? ,
, ?!

! , ,
,
.

358

, , ,
! ,
.
, , ,
.
, , ,
,
.
, ,
(, )
, - , -
. , ,
, , . ,
.
: :

, ,
:
: , . .
/
. 1
. 2
. 3
. 1
. 1, .
. 2
. 2, .
. 3
. 3, .

2005
12 993
12 027
12 980
10 000
1 000
9 256
89
9 990
900
7 000
5 400

2006
15 117
12 088
12 795
12 000
1 200
9 595
95
10 157
915
7 200
5 600

2007
15 222
11 820
11 958
13 000
1 300
10 094
98
10 212
920
7 400
5 700

2008
14 232
11 499
12 269
12 000
1 200
9 696
96
10 345
932
7 300
5 900

2009
15 845
11 378
12 776
12 500
1 250
8 976
88
10 079
908
7 600
5 800

2010
14 180
10 286
12 535
11 000
1 100
7 979
79
9 724
876
7 800
5 650

, , 1, 2
3, .

. , ,

359

, ,
:
: , . .
-
VC
FC
TP
1%
2%
3%
FC 1
FC 2
FC 3
TP 1
TP 2
TP 3

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

29 246 31 752 33 306 32 041 31 555 28 703


12 400 12 800 13 100 13 200 13 400 13 450
-3 646 -4 552 -7 406 -7 241 -4 955 -5 153
34,19% 37,79% 39,03% 37,45% 39,61% 38,32%
31,65% 30,22% 30,31% 30,26% 28,45% 27,80%
34,16% 31,99% 30,66% 32,29% 31,94% 33,88%
4 240
4 838
5 113
4 944
5 308
5 155
3 924
3 868
3 970
3 994
3 812
3 739
4 236
4 094
4 017
4 262
4 280
4 556
-1 247 -1 720 -2 891 -2 712 -1 963 -1 975
-1 154 -1 375 -2 245 -2 191 -1 409 -1 432
-1 245 -1 456 -2 271 -2 338 -1 583 -1 746

VC=.
FC=+
=TR-VC-FC

(265)
(266)
(267)

(%)=(n)/.

(268)

FC(n)=FC*(%)

(269)

(n)=
=TR(n)-(n)-FC(n)

(270)

: n
,
, ;
; .
.

,
,
.
?
()
,
,
,
,
.
,

.
, . ,

.
360


8 ,
,

. , .
- ,
, .
:
:


()
():
1 ( ),
2 ( ),
3 (),

750000 ..
8

0,12 (12%)
0,13 (13%)
0,15 (15%)

:
1 - ,
,
.
2 ,

.
3 ,

.

.
FV Future Value


:
1) FV Future Value
.

361

2) PV (NPV) (Net) Present Value


() ,
( )
.
FV . ,
.
.
PV (NPV) , ,
. PV (NPV)
. , ,
- .
PV (NPV) . -
,
.
.
.

FV.
1 , ,
, :

FV = PV (1 + i )n

(444)

: FV .
PV (750000 ..)
i .
n , (8 ).
:
:

8 1 (13% )
( S)
8 2 (15% )
( S)
8 3 (12% )
( S)

362

, ..
1993833,1
2294267,1
1856972,4
2048357,6

* , ,
.

.
8 . ,
300000 ..
( )
750000 ..
: 12%,
15% 13%, .

,
% .
:
:

, ...
%

20
29%

17
39%

15
51%

13
68%

12
80%

8
46%

, 12 .. ,
80%,
8 .. 46%? 30%,
!? , ?
. ,
, . ,
.
, 40 120
, 40
. ,
; , .
, 20
, .
: , -
(
( ,
)).

363


,
,
.
, ,
(, -, .).
, ,
. ,

.

,

.
,

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415


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n

(483)

:
; n ;
; i i- ,
; i
i- , .
: .

1
2.
: 1, 2 3.
:
:

, ..
,
,
,

(100 - , 0 - )

, .

i 1,
%%
25%
20%
20%
15%

100
170
85
190

80
75
95
80

120
450
95
150

90
89
40
135

65
120
80
210

15%

100

100

100

5%

20

30

26

52

11

1 350 000.

900 000.

1 050 000.

840 000.

660 000.

1:

i (1) =

1350000 900000 660000


n = 1 B * a
+
+

i i
25514
177,8
86 ,15
88 ,3
i =1

= 120,5 *
= 1024821
= 120,5 *
*
n
3
3

i i- , ,
.

420

2,
: 1, 2 3. , ,
.
:
:



120,5

1 024 821

67,5

574 070

177,8
7 593
1 512 142

86,15
10 447
732 683

88,3
7 475
750 968

, , :
1 2, ?!

:
!

,

.
:
:
,

, , 2,

, ,
,
.
421


,

.
.
,
: ,
.
:

(%) = i * 100%

(484)

: (%)
i- ; i
; ,
.

,
:
: ,

67,77% 37,96% 100,00% 48,45% 49,66%

,
.
, 1 12% ,
, 1 2,4% !
2 46,32% !
,
.
,
- . ,
- .
, .

.
.
422

-

,
, .
,
,
. , , ,
, ,
, , ,
.

.

:

= ( 1 , 2 ,..., )

(485)

1
1

2
2

= 0 * * * ...

(486)

: 0 ,
; 1, 2, , n
, ; 1,
2, ,n .

,
,
.

.

. (r)
1. :
1

r
, XIX (r
regression). , ,
, (r)
.
r, 100%,
.
1888
, :
, .
.

423

r=

Cov ( X ,Y )

X Y

(X 1 ,i X ) * (Y1 ,i Y )

i =1

i =1

i =1

(487)

(X 1 ,i X )2 * (Y1 ,i Y )2

, :
n

X=

X
i =1

; Y=

Y
i =1

(488)

: ,
; n (
); X
; Cov (X,Y) ,
; X , Y ,
,
- .
-
.

.
0,1
10000 .., 0,2 15000 .., 0,3 21000 ..,
0,2 25000 .., 0,2 30000 ...
:
0,1*10000+0,2*(15000+25000+30000)+0,3*21000 = 21300 ..

():
n

= i * i

(489)

n =1

: i i- ; i i- .

.
,

. .
,
, .
,
.
, ,
( )
424

:
= (21300 10000) 2 + (21300 15000) 2 + (21300 25000) 2 + (21300 30000) 2 + (21300 21000) 2

=16026,54 ..
(21300 ..).
,
;
13286,73 .. 29313,27 ..
.
( )
,
:

V = X

(490)

: V =

%=

16026,54 y.e.
% = 75,24% .
21300 y.e.

,
,

.


- ,

, , ,
,
- .
n, .
. ,
100%
: 25.000. 100
: 99%. 25
80%.
100 25

- .
,
. , 25%

. 50% 70%
425

, 85% 95%
. ,
-1 +1. 0 ,
.
+1, ,
. -1, ,
. ,
, 0,91 ,
91% , 100%
.
, ,
, ,

. a-g
,
a, b, c, d, e, f, g. ,

, 100% (,
=80%, =20%, 100%).
,

(gi)
:

i
(1 + ) * 100 * (Pi PMAX (C max) * Bi * ai
i
i =1
gi = Bi * ai
Pi
i =1

rBK ,PK

(491)

: Bi i-
; ai ,
, i-
; Pi i-
-;
;
PMAX(Cmax) ,
;
,
; n
, , ; rBK ,PK

.

426

a g,
.
()

:
i

= Bi * ai

(492)

i =1


b,
, ,
:
n

b=

Cov ( , )

(1 ,k ) * (1 ,i )

n =1
n

(1 ,k ) *
2

n =1

(1 ,k )

(493)

n =1

: ()
, ,
; n
;
() () ;
,

; ,
() ().
(),
-
(). i-
:
i

c = Bi * ai
i =1

k
b
k =1

(494)

: ,
. , ()
0
. ,
. () 0,
.

427

,
. ,

, , ,
( ), , .
:
, ,
/ / , ,

, ,
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,
,
:

. , , ,
, . ,
, .
,
:
, ,
, , , ,
-
( , , ),
,
.
() , , ,
, ,
,
.

,
, .
, ()

. , , ,
100%
. ,
100%.
d

428

.
:
c
(495)
di = i c
MAX
: di i- ,
(ci),
. CMAX , (ci)
, ,
.
1 (di), (),

, i-
,
:
(496)
i = 1 d i

i- (f),

:
fi = PMAX (C max) * (1 ei )
(497)
: PMAX(Cmax) ,
. ,

,
().
i-
i- :
(498)
fi = Pi fi
: - ; Pi
i- .
(h)
, :
(499)
hi = fi / Pi
(i)
. ,

:
(500)
i i = hi * (1 + ) * 100
:
. 100
429

. ,

, 100%.
g,
, , .
(g) i-
:
(501)
gi = a i i i

,
. ,

.
,
, b
1 , b
,
.
(gi)
, ,
, , ,
(),
, , ,
,


.

.
, ,
,
. ,
Excel, ,
, ,

.
^ () ,
. Excel
(1;2),
,
.

430

, Excel

.
, .

. ,
,
. ,
100% .
, ,
12 ,
12 (1 12).

, :
: 1

, ..
,
,
,


(100 - , 0 - )

, . .

, ..
,
,
,


(100 - , 0 - )

, . .

i ,
%%
10%
20%
20%

100
170
85

80
75
95

120
450
95

90
89
40

65
120
80

110
190
70

70
50
30

15%

190

80

150

135

210

160

50

15%

100

100

100

100

5%
15%
i ,
%%
10%
20%
20%

20
1 050

30
840

26
1 350

52
900

11
660

20
1 000

10
350

10

11

12

130
100
100

80
70
60

140
160
170

80
70
70

100
90
120

70
40
30

130
80
80

15%

120

70

140

50

80

30

90

15%

100

100

100

5%
15%

40
1 450

15
890

35
1 980

20
790

50

25
550

45
1 400

1 250

, :
, . ,
, .
() 1 ((1)):
1

i i- ,
, .

431

= Bi * a i = 0 ,1 * 100 + 0 ,2 * 170 + 0 ,2 * 85 + 0 ,15 * (190 + 100) + 0 ,05 * 20 = 105,5


i =1

:
: () , .


(a),

(a),

1
2
1
2
3
4
5
105,5 55,5 159,8 72,65 78,55 103
31
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
88 45,25 117,75 44,5 66,5 26,75 75,75

, ,
1
.
. (b).


(b()):
n

b() =

Cov ( , )

(1 ,k ) * (1 ,i )

n=1
n

(1 ,k ) * (1 ,k )

n=1

n=1

21,25 * 302500 + (8 ,75) * (147 . . ) + (33,75) * (387 . . ) + 11,25 * (47 . . ) + (28 ,75) * (697 . . ) +
( 452 + 77 + 1139 + 127 + 827 + 977 + 352 + 1702 + 352 + 2 + 827 + 977 ) *
+ 31,25 * 402 . . + (18 ,75) * (157 . . ) + 41,25 * 932 . . + (18 ,75) * (257 . . ) + 1,25 * 202 . . +
* ( 92 . + 22 . + 150 . + 2 . + 487 . + 162 . + 25 . + 870 . + 66 . +

124 712 500


124 712 500
(28 ,75) * (497 . . ) + 31,25 * 352 . .
=
=
= 0 ,93324643
88 ,35 * 1 512 490 133 632 977
+ 41 . + 248 . + 124 . )


, , ,
. ,
, ,

, .
b, b/ (
),
:
: (b)

b (r )

0,933246437

0,394781

0,8817865

0,33039

0,685191

0,57136

0,63279

432

, , ,

, ,
!
, ,

.
.


, .
():
i

c (1) = Bi * ai
i =1

k
b
k =1 = 105,5 / 0 ,6327 = 166,72

() :
: (c) , .
K
1
c 166,7

2
87,7

1
2
3
4
5 6 7
252,5 114,8 124,1 162,7 48,9 139 71,5

8
186

9
70,3

10
105

11 12
42,2 119,7

, ()
1,

.

1, d, e, f, f, h, i, g
:
1

, , 1 d=166,72/252,53=66,02%;
=1-66,02%=33,98%; f=1350000p.*(1-33,98%)=891270p.; f=1050000p.891270p.=158730p.; h = 158730p. / 1050000p. = 15,12%;
i=15,12%*(1+15%)*100=17,38; g=105,5-17,38=88,12.
.

433

: (d g) , . 1

, 2, 2, 5, 6, 7, 9,
10, 11, 12
,
,
,
, ,
, , .
,
.
1, 1, 3, 4
8.

1,
.

, ,
( 1)
,
.
.
-
,
, ,
, , ,
, .
,
,
1

(%) /d,e,h/, /i,g/ /f,f/.

434


.
,
:
:
(-g)
12
11

200,00

g
2

150,00

100,00
50,00

10

0,00
-50,00

3
8

4
7

5
6


.

, .
, 2. 1
, .

.

. ,
.
,

, .

.

.
: , -

435


. , , ,
,
.

. ,
.
.


,


. :
,
, , .



. 100% (
) 2009 2010 ( 2010 )
: /, -1, -2, , ,
, , , , , , , , , , , .
.
100%

( ).
.
.

.
, ,
, ,

( ).

, 2009 2010 (. .)

436

437

.

-,

100% 2009 2010


, .

:
: ,
. .

,
. 71

. , ,
.
5 /4.906,4 ./
3 2010 , . 4.077
(83,2% )
,
, . .
438


, ,
12.900 , 0,25%
.
- (10.200),
(38.200) (3.600) .

.
:
: ,
. .

.
,
.
.
2008 , 2009
2010 ,
, ,
:

439


( ) 100%
2003 2010 100%
.
,
, ,
. ,
.
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, /
.

.

440

:
, %



.
, ,
,
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, ,
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.
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,

( 5% ).

( ).
100% 2009-2010
441


.
.

:
: ,

: 250 !
, .

( ), ,
.

,
.
, 100%
2009 2010 .

-1 -2.
, , , .
18 .
442

.
,
9 , !
, 2007 .

, .
.
.

, ,
.
.
,
,
.
:
:

443

.
(
: /), (100%
: /),
(100% 100% ), (100%
100%
).
%
100% .

.
,


. ,
, , , , .
:
( , .)

444

,

, .
-, , ,
-.

, ,

, , ,
, ,
100%
2000 2010 ,
2009 2010 ,
, .
.
. ..
, .
100% 2009 2010
, - .

, ,
, ,
,
.

, :

2009-2010.
( ).

445

446


2009-2010. (  ).

, 2009 2010 (%%, )


.
1
.

, . 11% 12%
.
,
.

, , ,
.

.
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.
, .
/
. , ,
2 3 , .
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2 , .
.

.
. ,
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.
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( /
), .

447


( ) .
, , ,
, , ,
.
,
. ,
.
.

.

, .
,
, , ,
.
, , .
,
,

.
2009/2010
.

-11,1%

4,7%

6,5%

3,9%

4,8%

4,7%

8,5%
2,9%

6,5%

4,9%

7,7%
-4,2%

448

-15,00%

-10,00%

-5,00%

0,00%

0,4%

5,00%

3,1%

10,00%

6,8%

15,00%

12,5%

11,3%

:
/
1
2

2
.

, (15% 20%).
10%, ,
8%.
6%.

, , , , , .
4,5% 6%.

.

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,
,

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.
,
,
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,
, ..
,
, .
,
:
,
. ,
,
-, ,
, .
449

2009/2010
:

14,8%

1
2

9,3%

4,6%
1,3%

2,7%

1,2%

5,3%

3,2%

7,8%

-13,6%

-4,9%

-10,00%

-5,00%

0,00%

0,3%

5,00%

4,0%

5,9%

10,00%

5,6%

15,00%

19,8%

20,00%

19,1%

-15,00%

3
.
,
,
.
9,3% 26,56%.

, , , , .

, ().

,
(35,88%)! .

.

450

-35,9%

6,3%

10,2%

7,3%

9,2%

15,8%

14,2%

7,9%

12,2%

10,1%

19,4%
-15,6%

-40,00%

-30,00%

-20,00%

-10,00%

0,00%

1,1%

10,00%

12,3%

20,00%

7,2%

30,00%

17,7%
26,6%

: ()
2009/2010, %
/
1
2

, . -
, - .
,

, ,
.
.
, .
, , ,
. , ,
. , /,
7,2%. 14%.
20%,
15%. ,
,
,
. ,
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. , , /
: ,

451

, :
.
, , , .
,
, -
.
4
.
,
(24% 32%).
, (
), , , , , , ,
: 12% 20%.
()
2009/2010 ., %.
:

10,0%

4,6%

6,7%

18,8%

14,0%

9,5%

8,4%

-20,00%

-15,00%

-10,00%

-5,00%

0,00%

-16,1%

5,00%

-5,7%

10,00%

0,6%

15,00%

5,4%

20,00%

12,8%

23,6%

25,00%

15,2%

30,00%

18,1%

21,2%

31,1%

35,00%

/
1
2


.
, , .

. 5
452


: 1 20% ( 1 2,
); 2 10% 20% (, , , ,
, ); 3 5% 10% (/, , , ); 4
, 5% (, ); 5
( ).
4 5
.
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.
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5
.
100%
,
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.
-
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,
70%. ,

!
. ,
, ,

453


.

:
:
2009/2010, %

31,1%

20,4%

15,3%

22,6%

11,9%

41,2%
5,7%
-37,4%

-40,00%

-20,00%

-15,2%

20,00%
0,00%

43,1%

1,2%

17,7%

40,00%

29,3%

60,00%

24,0%

80,00%

63,6%

65,8%
90,7%

100,00%

/
1
2

,
.
.

,
, ! : ,
, ,
-! :
;
( . ); ; VaR-
.
,
.

454

6
.
,
( 13%), ( 10%), ,
( 24% 30%), ( 15%),
( 53%).

10% 15% ( -1 -2,
85%).

:
:
2009/2010, %

60,00%

97,9%
47,2%

46,8%

86,8%

84,7%

142,3%
72,1%

103,7%

130,8%

73,4%

80,00%

76,0%

100,00%

90,0%

120,00%

113,9%

86,9%

140,00%

117,4%

160,00%

108,2%

180,00%

183,7%

200,00%

40,00%
20,00%

0,00%

/
1
2


, ,
- .
(
100%),
. ,

. , 455


.
7
.
-2, ,
, , , , , , .
,
2 3 .
7
: .
(36,78%, 1 . 3 . )
(44,80%) .
()
(65,93%), -2 (88,89%), (94,10%),
(57,80%), (42,31%).
-1
(175,40%), (177,78%) (299,86%, , . 3
. ).

2009/2010, %:

33,3%

56,2%

86,4%

92,0%

173,0%

86,9%

170,6%

151,7%

106,3%

67,2%

100,00%

81,2%

112,5%

150,00%

57,0%

200,00%

132,7%

250,00%

223,2%

271,9%

300,00%

236,4%

:
2009/2010, %

50,00%

456

0,00%

/
1
2

8
.
,

-1, , , ,
, , , , .
:
2009/2010, %

30,00%

25,0%

46,3%

40,2%

47,9%

70,3%

63,4%

69,1%
46,5%

51,5%

63,0%

44,8%

52,9%

73,1%

36,0%

40,00%

36,3%

50,00%

57,0%

60,00%

70,00%

60,3%

80,00%

20,00%
10,00%

0,00%

/
1
2

9
.
, , 8.
8. 75%
,
.
-1 65%, / 43%.

29%.
(26,9%) (30,9%)
,
, .

457

30,00%

64,0%

53,7%

52,1%

59,8%

75,0%

29,7%

40,00%

36,6%

30,9%

53,5%

48,5%
26,9%

37,0%

50,00%

43,0%

60,00%

47,1%

70,00%

39,7%

80,00%

55,2%

63,7%

:
2009/2010, %

20,00%
10,00%

0,00%

/
1
2

21,0%
-34,5%

-25,0%

-2,8%

-28,4%

-41,6%

-39,5%

37,8% 53,3%

-29,3%

75,7%

52,6%

-200,00%

-100,00%

0,00%

-12,9%

100,00%

61,3%

17,1%

13,9%

:
2009/2010, %

-532,1%

-300,00%
-400,00%
-500,00%
-600,00%

/
1
2

(61,3%), (16,2%),
, 1/3 ;
17,1%;
( 52,6%), ( 75,7%), (37,8%),
(53,3%), (21,0%).

.

458

. MacD
MicD
2009/2010 .
10
.

.
.
10 ,
(, 0,85 85%).

() (), 3,96 5,15.
(1,31),
(1,41), (1,22), (1,60), (1,02).

.
.
,
.
:
2009/2010
5,15

6,00

3,96

5,00
4,00

1,02

1,75

1,60
0,90

0,82

0,70

1,22

0,85

1,41

1,31
0,46

0,50

459

0,00

0,59

1,00

0,55

2,00

0,63

3,00

/
1
2

11
.

. ,
,
.
(13,33) (8,05),

, ,
, . ,

.
:
2009/2010
13,33

14,00
12,00

8,05

10,00

3,35
0,94

2,67

2,44

2,64
1,31

2,51

3,17

0,83

1,34

1,35

0,00

0,93

2,00

1,28

4,00

3,30

6,00

3,82

8,00

/
1
2

12
.

. ,
.
, ,
, .

460

, ,
1,

. , , ,
,
3,6 14,3.
12:
:
2009/2010
14,32

16,00
14,00
12,00

4,06

3,97

1,08

1,41

1,18

1,50

2,36

1,17

2,18

1,02

3,64

0,00

1,19

2,00

0,96

4,00

1,63

6,00

2,24

8,00

5,64

10,00

/
1
2

13
, .
13:
:
, , 2009/2010

84,61

40,00

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9 785,03

1 389 561 967

$46 318 732

$463 188

100,00%

3 059,78

434 516 027

$14 483 867

$144 839

31,27%

2 640,00

374 903 819

$12 496 794

$124 968

26,98%

419,78

59 612 208

$1 987 074

$19 871

4,29%

343,45

48 773 625

$1 625 787

$16 258

3,51%


-
:

503

1%
,
. ..

, %


1
,
.

,
. .

,
. ..

76,32

10 838 583

$361 286

$3 613

0,78%

226,03

32 098 881

$1 069 963

$10 700

2,31%

970,67

137 844 547

$4 594 818

$45 948

9,92%

1 085,16

154 102 422

$5 136 747

$51 368

11,09%

678,10

96 296 644

$3 209 888

$32 099

6,93%

278,87
1 533,31
361,07

39 602 516
217 744 360
51 274 837

$1 320 084
$7 258 145
$1 709 161

$13 201
$72 582
$17 092

2,85%
15,67%
3,69%

594,93

84 485 368

$2 816 179

$28 162

6,08%

165,37

23 483 597

$782 787

$7 828

1,69%

281,81

40 019 385

$1 333 979

$13 340

2,88%

532,31

75 592 171

$2 519 739

$25 197

5,44%

17,61

2 501 212

$83 374

$834

0,18%

9 382,86

1 332 450 970

$44 415 032

$444 151

95,89%

,





,

,
.
124,968 . .. , 3,749 . ., ,
12,496 . .., 374,88 . . .
. ,
. ,
504

, ,
, 2640 . 00 . 2010.
, ,
2640 . ! ,
?!

.

, .
15,67%
. 1 72,58 . ..,
2,17 . . 7,258 . .., 217,7 . .
.
( - ),
, .
, 95,89%.
(,
, .) 4,11% .
.
,
, ,
, , .
,
:
( ,
, ,
, ).

. ,
,
, ,

. ,
:
505

MacD =
:

TR m
TMSCF

* 100%

(505)

, .

MacD ,
;
TRm Total Revenue (monthly)
;
TMSCF Total Market Macro Segment Cash Flow
1 ( , .
2010.).
, MacD MicD
, .
. -,
,
. -,
,
, , , ,

,
,
, -, .

.
2010 ,
, 2011 2012 , ,
, .
.
1) (505), .
2) , (505)
. :
) (505) 12
;
) , :

506

MacD y =

TR

12 * TMSCF

* 100%

(506)

: MacDy
;
TR ( 010 2
).
3) (DI).
(DI) ,
:

DI = (1 + i1 ) * (1 + i2 ) * .... * (1 + i n )

(507)

: DI Discount Index .
i .
,
,
, , .
n ().
, ,
(01) .
4) MacDy
(DI) , ,
:

TMacDy = MacDy * 1 / DI

(508)

: TMacDy
. .
-,
.
, :
N 0,27%
. 2010 . . 200...
. ,

507

2012 ,
, 2011 14%, 2012
16%.
.
2012 :

200 . .. * (1 + 0 ,14) * (1 + 0 ,16) = 264 ,48 . ..


264,48... , 32,24%
(264/200).
.
2010 2400... 0,27%
( 200...,
2400...). 2011 2520..., 2012
2546,4... ,

13% 2011. 10% 2012.
, , ,
, 2012 . .
:

DI = (1 + 0 ,13) * (1 + 0 ,10) = 1,243

, 0,27% .
, , ()
100% . ,
(509):

0 ,27% = 2400...
100% = ...
TMSCF * 12 = =

, :

100 * 2400
= 888888,9. ..
0 ,27

12,
1 , .
2011.:
508

TMacDy = MacDy * 1 / DI =

1 * TR
DI * 12 * TMSCF

* 100% =

1 * 2546,4 ...
=
* 100% = 0 ,2304%
1,243 * 888888,9...
, 2010 2012
, .
0,27% ,
0,2304% , , 15% !
,
,
, ,
.
, ,
, ,
( , 0%),
!
,
. , ,
, , -
. , .
( 1,243).
:

0 ,27% = 1,243 * 2400...


% = 2546,4 ...

, :

0 ,27 * 2546,4
% =
= 0 ,2304%
(1,243 * 2400)
: , ,
,
() , , , 0,27%*(1,243*2400)
509

(%*2546,4),
(2546,4), .
, , .

.
. ,
,
,
.
.
,
, , ,
,
.
, ,
, , , , ,
,
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.
. ,
.
,
.
303 . . , 3,6 . . ,
.
,
,
, 2640 . 00 .
. 2010 .
142 9
(2010.) / 141 920 (2010.)/.
, ,
,
, ,
510

,
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.
,
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. ,

.
.
, , ! , ,
,
.
,
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,
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,
.
, .
,
,
.
(MicD)
, ,
(MicD),
-.
, ,
(MacD), , ?! ,
,
511

, !
! !
,
, ,
, ,
. ,
, 2
, , 15%
! .
,
.
, 1
, .
2010.
1 .
( 1 )

-
:

:

,
,
.
. .

,
. ..

1%

,

. ..
, %

9 785,03

9 785 027

$326 168

$3 262

100,00%

3 059,78

3 059 778

$101 993

$1 020

31,27%

2 640,00

2 640 000

$88 000

$880

26,98%

419,78

419 778

$13 993

$140

4,29%

343,45

343 454

$11 448

$114

3,51%

76,32

76 323

$2 544

$25

0,78%

512

,
,
.
. .

,
. ..

1%

,

. ..
, %

226,03

226 034

$7 534

$75

2,31%

970,67

970 675

$32 356

$324

9,92%

1 085,16

1 085 160

$36 172

$362

11,09%

678,10

678 102

$22 603

$226

6,93%

278,87
1 533,31
361,07

278 873
1 533 314
361 068

$9 296
$51 110
$12 036

$93
$511
$120

2,85%
15,67%
3,69%

594,93

594 930

$19 831

$198

6,08%

165,37

165 367

$5 512

$55

1,69%

281,81

281 809

$9 394

$94

2,88%

532,31

532 305

$17 744

$177

5,44%

17,61

17 613

$587

$6

0,18%

9 382,86

9 382 863

$312 762

$3 128

95,89%

, ,
; -
,
, .

, .
1 . 1020.
.. ( , 1 .. 30 .),
101,99 . .., ,
11,45 . ..,
513

, , ,
.
1 .
, ,
. ,
, ,
, -
.
, ( , ,
). ,
,
.

, ,
, ,
.
- ,
- .
,
, , ,
. ,

, ,
. ,
(510) ( 1
):

Drc = D + D1 + D2 + ... + Dn Ar * TMicSCF = Ar * TMicSCF D D1 D2 ... Dn


: || - , ,
.
Drc MicDrc
;
D ;
D1, D2, ., Dn MicD1, MicD2, ., MicDn
1, 2, ., n.

514

TMicSCF Total Market Micro Segment Cash Flow


,
, , ,
(MicD). 1 .
, , 12.
D (MicD) ,
,
.
,
, 1 .

. ,
?
(Population) .
100 , 1000, , 2 ., .
,
,
, :

P
AR =
1.000.000

(511)

: ,
;
Ar Adjustment Ratio
,
1 .

, !
, ,
! , 1 . ,
, 2,5 , - 2,5;
, , 200 . ., 0,2 (200.000/1.000.000), .
,
, , .
515

TMSCF
.

.

, :

MicD =
:

TR m

Ar * TMicSCF

* 100%

(512)

- , .

MicD
, ;
TRm Total Revenue (monthly)
;
TMicSCF Total Market Micro Segment Cash Flow
1 ( , .
2010.).
Ar Adjustment Ratio
, .
, .
(DI) ( (507)),
TMicSCF ,
12.
,
:

MicD y =

TR

12 * Ar * TMicSCF

* 100%

(513)

: MacDy
;
TR ( 010 2
).

516

MicDy
(DI) ,
:

TMicDy = MicDy * 1 / DI

(514)

: TMicDy
. .
MacDy, -,
.
,
.
, N,
2,5
, 6,514 . ..
2012 . ,
7,8 . ..
( A), 5,43 . .. ( B), 6,78 . . ( C).
.
,
,

.
2010 , ,
, MicD
.
13% 2011.
10% 2012. , . 2010 .
:
DI = (1+0,13)*(1+0,10) = 1,243

Ar:

2.500.000
= 2,5
AR =
1.000.000
517

,
, :

MicD y =

TR

12 * AR * DI * TMicSCF

* 100%

(515)

: MicDy , .
N :

MicD y (N ) =

6 ,514 ...
* 100% = 0 ,1985%
12 * 2,5 * 1,243 * 88 ,000 ...

MicD y ( ) =

7,8 . ..
* 100% = 0 ,2376%
12 * 2,5 * 1,243 * 88 ,000 ...

MicD y () =

5,43 . ..
* 100% = 0 ,1655%
12 * 2,5 * 1,243 * 88 ,000 ...

MicD y ( ) =

6 ,78 ...
* 100% = 0 ,2066%
12 * 2,5 * 1,243 * 88 ,000 ...

2012 (516):

TMicSCF (TOTAL) = Ar * TMicSCF * DI * 12 =

= 2,5 * 88 ,000 . .. * 1,243 * 12 = 3281,52


: TMicSCF (TOTAL) -
(
2012 )! 100%
.
515, ,
:

MicD y =

TR
TMicSCF (TOTAL)

* 100%

518

(517)

,
:

MicD (COMP ) = 100% MicDy ( A, B , C , N )

(518)

: MicD (COMP ) ,
;

MicD y ( A, B , C , N ) ,
, , N , .

:

MicD(COMP ) = TMicSCF (TOTAL) TR ( A, B , C , N )

(519)

: TR ( A, B , C , N ) ,
, N , .

:

MicD(COMP ) = (3281,5 6 ,514 7,8 5,43 6 ,78)... = 3254,996 ...


:

MicD (COMP ) = 100% 0 ,1985% 0 ,2376% 0 ,1655% 0 ,2066% = 99,1917%


, N,
. ,
, .
,
.
,
N, , ,
, 2,5% .
2,5%
, ,
,
N. ,
, , 100%,
, ,
N,
, N . ,

519

,
, ,
N .

N, , ,
, , , 100%
, , 2,5%. ,
N,
.
.

, .
, , ,
.

, , .
, . 2,5%
2,5
. .

TMicSCF (SUBSEGMENT TOTAL) = * TMicSCF (TOTAL)


: TMicSCF

(SUBSEGMENT TOTAL)

(520)

, .
, , ,

. ,
.

. , ,
.
, ,
, . :

TMicSCF (SUBSEGMENT TOTAL) = 0 ,025 * 3281,52 . .. = 82 . ..


, , .
51,7 . ..
520

.
:

MicD(SUB) =

TR
TMicSCF (SUBSEGMENT TOTAL)

* 100%

(521)

: MicD(SUB) .
TR .


:
N:

MicD (SUB)(N ) =

6 ,514 ...
* 100% = 7,94%
82,0 ...

MicD (SUB)( ) =

7,8 ...
* 100% = 9,51%
82,0 ...

MicD (SUB)() =

5,43 ...
* 100% = 6 ,62%
82,0 ...

MicD (SUB)(N ) =

6 ,78 ...
* 100% = 8 ,26%
82,0 ...

, .

:
:

MicD(SUB)(TOTAL) = 100% MicD(N , A, B , C )

(522)

, :

MicD(SUB)(TOTAL)


.
:

521

MicD (SUB)(TOTAL) = 100% 7,94% 9,51% 6 ,62% 8 ,26% = 67,67%


, ,
.

:

MicD (SUB)(TOTAL) = TMicSCF TR (N , A, B , C )

(523)


, :

MicD(SUB)(TOTAL)


.
TR (N , A, B , C ) (

, N, A, B, C).
:

MicD (SUB)(TOTAL) = (82,0 6 ,514 7,8 5,43 6 ,78)... = 55,514 ...


, 55,514 . .. ,
N .

,
.

,
.
,
, ,
.
, .
:
, .
,

. :
,
,
522

4,
. , , ,
, ,
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: ABC XYZ
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, .

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N% , /

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( ).
,
2009/2010 , , 25,981%
2009/2010 .
:
:
, 2008
0,6

% . . 2008

51,3%

0,5

37,2%

28,3%

26,6%

21,5%

19,5%
23,3%

24,1%

28,8%

26,9%

33,5%

27,0%
31,1%

26,6%

0,3

23,8%

0,4

37,0%

38,0%

0,2

0,1

531

:
, 2009/2010
56,1%

60,00%

% . .

40,1%

19,8%

27,9%

21,6%
29,9%
25,8%

21,5%

27,6%

31,3%

34,2%

22,9%

25,3%

30,00%

27,9%

40,00%

/
2

41,9%

37,7%

50,00%

56,1%

20,00%

10,00%

0,00%

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532

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.

534

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.
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-
.
- 8 .
,
()
.
1
,
()

100
<100
100 200
[100;200]
200
>200

, 1%
( ; ),
, ,
:

= 0 ,5 * ( + ) =

+
2

1:

(524)

,
() (. 210):

= =


0 ,5 * ( + )

(525)

2 = 100*7*8*9=100*1*0,1*
(526)
7 ,
1

.
: 7, 8, 9 ,
; 100 (), , ; 1
( ); 0,1
2

535

, 8 ,
! ,
, ,
. ,
7 , 8

1.
:
% =

( )
0 ,02
0 ,5 * ( + )

(527)

= 100*7*8*9=100*1*0,05*%

(528)

:
= / =


0 ,5 * ( + )

(529)

= 100*7*8*9=100*1*0,075*
:
% / =

0 ,5 * ( + )

0 ,02

= 100*7*8*9=100*1*0,025*%

(530)
(531)
(532)

:
= / =


0 ,5 * ( + )

(533)

= 100*7*8*9=100*1*0,225*

(534)

:
;
, .
1
( , 9),
,
. , 2% ,
5% , .
.
.
: ,
, .
, (
, 10). , : (%
0,02)*0,05*1*100.
.

536

% / =

0 ,5 * ( + )

(535)

= 100*7*8*9=100*1*0,1*%/

(536)

D :

D = =

(537)

0 ,5 * ( + )

= 100*7*8*9=100*1*0,3*D

(538)

:
% =

0 ,05
0 ,5 * ( + )

(539)

= 100*7*8*9=100*1*0,15*%

(540)

:
= =


0 ,5 * ( + )

(541)

= 100*7*8*9=100*1*0,05*

(542)

0 ,10

(543)

= 100*7*8*9=100*1*0,09*%

(544)

% =

0 ,5 * ( + )

F :

0 ,5 * ( + )

(545)

= 100*7*8*9=100*1*0,25*F

(546)

F = =

% :
% =


0 ,5 * ( + )

(547)

0 ,02

= 100*7*8*9=100*1*0,25*%

(548)

2: -

G ( L1) :
G = L1 =

()

(549)

537

) :
= 10*0,5*1,5*Dev 1

(550)

) :
= 10*0,2*1,5*Dev 2

(551)

H (F1) :
F1 =

(552)

= 100*7*8*9=100*1,5*0,2*= 100*1,5*0,2*|F1-0,15|

(553)

3:

I () :
I = ( 0) =


0 ,5 * ( + )

(554)

= 100*7*8*9=100*0,8*0,1* I
(555)
J :
J = ( 0) =


0 ,5 * ( + )

= 100*7*8*9=100*0,8*0,3* J

(556)
(557)

:
= ( 0) =


0 ,5 * ( + )

= 100*7*8*9=100*0,8*0,5*

(558)
(559)

L (F1) :
F1 =

(560)

= 100*7*8*9=100*0,8*0,5*(|F1-0,15|)/5

(561)

(F2) :
= F2 =
1
2

Dev = G 2,5
Dev = G 2,5

538

(562)

= 100*7*8*9=100*0,8*0,01*
(563)
N (F3) :
F3 =

(564)

= 100*7*8*9=100*0,8*0,05*|F3-0,5|

(565)

(F4) :
= F4 =

0 ,55

(566)

= 100*7*8*9=100*0,8*0,05*

(567)

(F5) :
= F 5 = 0 ,5

(568)

= 100*7*8*9=100*0,8*0,07*

(569)

Q (F6) :
+ +
Q = F 6 = 0 ,5

(570)

:
= 100*7*8*9=100*0,8*0,06*Q

(571)

R (F7) :
R = F 7 = 0 ,95

(572)

= 100*7*8*9=100*0,8*0,1*R

(573)

S (F8) :
1 +

S = F8 = *
0 ,08

(574)

= 100*7*8*9=100*0,8*0,04*S

(575)

(F9) :
1

T = F9 = *
0 ,6
5

(576)

= 100*7*8*9=100*0,8*0,1 *

(577)

U (F10) :

539

+
1
U = F 10 = * 0 ,85

(578)

= 100*7*8*9=100*0,8*0,04*U

(579)

V (F11) :
V = F 11 = 0 ,5

(580)

= 100*7*8*9=100*0,8*0,05*V

(581)

W (F12) :

W = F 12 = 0 ,5

(582)

= 100*7*8*9=100*0,8*0,04*W

(583)

(F13) :
1 +

= F 13 = *
0 ,65

(584)

= 100*7*8*9=100*0,8*0,1*

(585)

Y (F14) :
Y = F 14 =

(586)

0 ,4

= 100*7*8*9=100*0,8*0,09*Y

(587)

Z (F15) :

1
Z = F 15 = *
0 ,1
5

(588)

= 100*7*8*9=100*0,8*0,03*Z

(589)

4:

( ) :
= ( ) =

(590)

= 100*7*8*9=100*1,3*0,1*

(591)

( ) :
= ( ) =

(592)

= 100*7*8*9=100*1,3*0,2*

(593)
540

( ) :
= ( ) =

(594)

= 100*7*8*9=100*1,3*0,3*

(595)

( ) :

(596)

= 100*7*8*9=100*1,3*0,5 *

(597)

= ( ) =

, G ( L1) :
G = L1 =

()

(598)

) :
= 10*1,4*0,5*(1,2-G)

(599)

) :
Dev = G 2,5

(600)

= 10*1,4*0,2*(G-2,5)

(601)

(L2) :
+
L2 =

(602)

) :
= 10*1,4*0,4*(0,8L2)

(603)

) :
= 10*1,4*0,15*(L21,5)

(604)

(L3) :

L3 =

(605)

) .
=100*1,4*0,3*(0,2L3)

(606)

) .
=100*1,4*0,1*(L30,8)

(607)

1 - L4 ( 172).
1

1,2
. 0.

541

:
L5 =

(608)

) :
=100*1,4*2,0*(0,02L5)

(609)

) :
=100*1,4*0,2*(L50,15)

(610)

5:


:
=


0 ,5 * ( + )

(611)

= 100*3,75*0,2*

(612)

:
=


0 ,5 * ( + )

(613)
= 100*3,75*0,2*

(614)

:
=


0 ,5 * ( + )

(615)

= 100*3,75*0,5*

(616)

:
=


0 ,5 * ( + )

(617)

= 100*3,75*1*

(618)

6:
(1) (619):
= 1 =

0 ,5 * ( + )

=
0 ,5 * ( + ) 0 ,5 * ( + )

= 100*0,35*0,1*

(620)

(2) :
542


0 ,5 * ( + )

(621)

= 100*0,35*0,005 *

(622)

= 2 =

(3) :
= 3 =


0 ,5 * ( + )

(623)

= 100*0,35*0,005 *

(624)

(4) :

0 ,5 * ( + )

= 4 =

(625)

= 100*0,35*0,005 *

(626)

(5) :

0 ,5 * ( + )

(627)

= 100*0,35*0,005 *

(628)

= 5 =

(6) :

= 6 =

0 ,5 * ( + )

(629)

= 100*0,35*0,008 *

(630)

(7) :
= 7 =


0 ,5 * ( + )

(631)

= 100*0,35*0,008 *

(632)

(8) :
= 8 =


0 ,5 * ( + )

(633)

= 100*0,35*0,005 *

(634)

(9) :
= 9 =


0 ,5 * ( + )

(635)

= 100*0,35*0,005 *

(636)

(1) :

543

= 1 =

1
*
5

(637)

= 0,35*0,1 *

(638)

(2) :
1
= 2 = *

(639)

= 0,30*0,1 *

(650)

(3) :
= 3 =

( )

(" "

(651)

182,5 *
)
365
* 0 ,3 * 0 ,01
10

(652)

(4) :
= 4 =

( )

(" "

(653)

100 *
)
365
* 0 ,3 * 0 ,01
10

(654)

(5) :
1 ( )
= 5 = *
5

(655)

= 0,30*0,2 *

(666)

(6) :
= 6 =

(" "

( )

(667)

80 *
)
365
* 0 ,3 * 0 ,01
10

(668)

(7) :
= 7 =

( )

(" "

(669)

50 *
)
365
* 0 ,3 * 0 ,01
10

(670)

(8) :

544

( )

= 8 =

(" "

(671)

100 *
)
365
* 0 ,3 * 0 ,01
10

(672)

(1) :
= 1 = =

(673)

= 100*0,30*0,2 *

(674)

(2) :
= 2 =

(675)

= ( 5)*0,25*0,4

(676)

(3) :
= 3 =

(677)

= 100*0,35*0,1 *

(678)

(4) :
= 4 =

(679)

= 100*0,35*0,1 *

(680)

7:
(1) :

= 1 =

(681)

=100*1,5 *0,2 *(0,07 )

(682)

(2) :

= 2 =

(683)

=100*1,5 *0,1 *(0,12 )

(684)

(3) :
= 3 =

(685)

=100*1,5 *0,15 *(0,15 )

(686)

545

(4) :

= 4 =

(687)

= 100*1,5 *0,05 *

(688)

(5) :
= 5 =

(689)

= 100*1,5 *0,07 *

(690)

(6) :

= 6 =

(691)

= 100*1,5 *0,3 *(0,2 )

(692)

(7) :

= 7 =

(693)

= 100*1,5 *0,1 *(0,1 )

(694)

(8) :

= 8 =

(695)

= 100*1,5 *0,1 *

(696)

(9) :

= 9 =

(697)

= 100*1,5 *0,09 *

(698)

(10) :
= 10 =

(699)

= 100*1,5 *0,15 *(0,1 )

(700)

8:
:
= . =

+ 6 ( )

(701)

=1*1*2=2

(702)
546

:
= . =

+ 3 ( )

(703)

=1*1*7=7

(704)

Z 1 = 1,2A+1,4B+3,3C+0,6D+0,999E

(705)

Trend = Z Z

(706)

=(10 3)*0,4*0,5

(707)

Z 2 = 1,2A+1,2B+3,3C+0,6D+E

(708)

=(10 3)*0,4*0,5

(709)

:
Z 3 = 1,2 * 1 + 1,4 * 2 + 3,3 * 3 + 0,6 * 4 + 5

(710)

=(10 3)*0,4*0,5

(711)

:
Z 4 = 1,03A+3,07B+0,66C+0,4D

(712)

=(15 10 2)*0,4*0,5

(713)

5 (713.1):
1

A = ( )/( ); = (
)/( ); = ( )/( ); D = (
)/( ); = ( )/( )
2
D: D = (
)/( ). : A =
( )/( ); = ( )/(
); = ( )/( ); = ( )/( ).

.
,
.
, .
,
410 420.
:
(
), (
).
3
1 / ; 2 / ;
3 / ; 4
/; 5 / .
4
A = ( )/( ); = (
( ))/( ); = ( (=
+ ))/( ); D = ()/( ).
5
V1 = ( )/( ); V2 = ()/( ); V3 =
( )/( ); V4 = (
)/( ); V5 = ( )/( ); V6 =

547

H = 5,528 * V1 + 0 ,212 * V2 + 0 ,073 * V3 + 1,270 * V4 + 0 ,120 * V5 + 2,335 * V6 +


+ 0 ,575 * V7 + 1,083 * V8 + 0 ,894 *V 96 ,075
=(15 10 3)*0,4*0,5

(714)

:
Z 1 = 0 +0,531+0,132+0,183+0,164

(715)

=(10 3)*0,2*0,2

(716)

:
R = 8.38*1 + 2 + 0,054*3 + 0,63*4

(717)

=(8 3)*0,4*0,4

(718)

Z = (0 ,3877 + (1,0736) * L1 + 0 ,0579 * F 13)

(719)

=(7 3)*0,3 *0,4

(720)

:
Z 2 = 0,111X1+13,239X2+1,676X3+0,515X4+3,8X5

(721)

=(10 2)*0,5 *0,4

(722)

:
=

.
. .

=(15 10 8 6 1,5)*0,8 *1

(723)
(724)

:
KG 3=-0,16X1-0,22X2+0,87X3+0,10X4-0,24X5
=(5 2)*0,1 *0,3

(725)
(726)

2:
( )/( ); V7 =log ( ); V8 =
( )/( ; V9 =log ((
)/()).
1
1= / ; 2= /
; 3= / ; 4=
L1.
2
X1 2/; X2 /; X3 / ; X4
/ ; X5 /
3
1 ( 260+250+240)
( ); 2 ( 490 + 510)
( ); 3 (23 (. 150) +
4(.170) ( %%)) - (2 (. 010)); 4
(5 (. 720)/2(. 029); 5
(. 470) ( 590 + 690).

548

2 1 KG
KG
, %% (%%)

0,048
90

-0,026
70

-0,068
50

-0,107
30

-0,164
10

=100*(%%)*0,3*0,5
(727)

/, , , ,
. .
/.
3 2 /

+ +

- +

+ -




,
, ,

""
, ,
,

, , .
!

, !
-
(-).
,
!


,
.
:
4 3

/
( -

++, . +
++, . -

1
1

-3
(-5;5)*

-.
.
3
. ++; + ; +
, + , +
.
2

549

1 )

-+ . +
-+ . +- . +
+- . -- . +
-- . -

1
1
1
1
1
1

-1
5
4
1,5
2
20

1:
=

( + )
=

(728)

2 :
Z 3= 0,063 *1 + 0,092*2 + 0,057*3 + 0,001*4
, :
=(10 4)*0,5 *1
:
=(10 4)*0,3 *0,5
4 / :
Z 53 = 0,2153 18,3474X1 + 3,3847X2 + 2,3601X3 1,9230X4 + 0,0617X5
Z 6 2= 0,1837 + 4,6524X1 - 16,5456X2 + 3,2732X3 1,7381X4 + 0,0738X5
1

(729)

(730)
(731)
(732)
(733)
(734)

5% (0,05) ( ),
(5) . 5 (0,05) 10
(0,10) , (3) .
10 (0,10) 20 (0,20) , 0, , .
20 (0,20) 30 (0,30) , 0.
30 (0,30) 50 (0,50) , (+3)
. 50%, (+5) .
2
,
. ,
,
.
3
1 = /; 2 = ( + )/; 3
= /; 4 = / .
4
, : .
.
, ,
.
5
1 , ,
; 2
; 3
; 4
; 5
.
6
1
; 2 ,

550

Z 11 = 2,6803 51,3394X1 + 10,087X2 + 4,4145X3 + 2,0318X4 + 2,6314X5

(735)

1 :
=(10 3)*1 *0,15

(736)

:
=(8 3)*2 *0,15

(737)

:
=(8 5)*3 *0,15

(738)

1 :
=(8 3)*0,5*0,1

(739)

2 :
=(10 3)*1*0,1

(740)

2 :
=(15 5)*1,5*0,1

(741)

8,
, , ,
.

. ,
.
100,
, .
,
.
.

. .
, ; 3
; 4
; 5 .
1

1 , ,
; 2
; 3
; 4
; 5 .

551

5 1

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8


2



,

12

3,111124691

2,626840676

12

4,84842439

12
15
7
15
24
100

2,206292826
4,199183963
1,590037229
1,424829365
1,751666667
267,4010854


( ).
2
1:
1

, , ,
,
,
.
, ,

,
,
-,

,
1998 .
, ,
, ,

552

X=*
11% ( 0 ,11)

* 1

(742)

.. = (%) *

(743)


,
, :
, .

,
,
. ,
,
.
1

,
,
, , 100 . ,
267,4
, , , 267,4%, 2,67
.
, 0, 1.
,
, 2. , 1. 11% (0,11)
,
. ,

.
. /
.
,
.
2% .

553

554

555

556

557

558

559

560

561

562

563

II)

-:

-, ,
.
- :
.
.
, ,
, ,
.
,
.


. ,
-,
.

,


,
,
.


564


,
-

,

.


- ,

,
.
-

,
-
.


,

.


, , ,
,
, ,
,
.
,
,
,
.

565


,
.
.
-
-. ,
,
, .
,
:
,
,
. ,


.
,
, ,
- ,
.
,

,
.

,
,
.

,
, , ,
-
.

566


,

. ,

.

,
.
,

.
,
, ,

.
, -

-
.
, .
, .
, .

,
,
,
75% ,
5 . ., ,
- ,

-.
,
0,5 5 . . , 5 . . ,
,
567

25%
.
5 . .
, , ,
, -

.
.


: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5

6,
CVP-78.
. ,
, ..
VaR,
.
,

,
,

., ., ., 2008; .., 1998; .., 2009 (6 .); ., 2009;


.., 2003; .. 2004; .., 2002; - ;
- (. , . -);
1
- ; -
; - ,
;
(. -).
2
J.P. Morgan bank official site (www.jpmorgan.com); Hull J., 2009; Hull J., 1990.; Katolay A., 2004/2005; Aragones J.& Blanco C.,
1999; Basel: SBfIS, 2000; Dowd K., 2008; Thomas S., 1998, 2007; Miller M., 1998; Shah A.& Thomas S., 2006; . , 2009.
3
Dismukes R., 2009; Harwood J., Heifner R., Coble K., Perry J. and others, 2006; Harwood J. & Coble K., 1997; A. M. Featherstone &
Crisostomo M. F., 1990; Beverly F., 1990.
4
.., 2002; - ; -
.
5
Yuh-Dauh Lyuu, 2007, 2009.
6
- , . ,
-
. , .
, 6 .
7
CVP Costs, Volume, Profit . ,
, , , ,
, . , , Harris J., 1936; Robinson M.A., 2001.
8
- ; -
; - ,
;
(. -).

568

,
,
.
,
, ,
( ) .
-
,

,

.

,
CVP- .
,
.
, ,
,
, ,
.

,
, .
,
.

,
,

, ,
;

; ;
; ,
569

; ,
; ; .

.
, , -
,

.
, ,
,
, 100 ,
, 12 ,
- 3 ,
12 ,
12 ,
15 ,
7 , 15 ,
24 .
,

-, 100 .
-.
, . ,

2,
:

1,
3, 4, 5.
1

Morgenthau A., 1952; .., 2008; .., 2007; . ., .., 2003.


, 1948; Couffignal L., 1958; Kelly K., 1994; Minsky M., 2006; McCulloh W.S., 1974.
3
., . Shuman F.L., 1945; Glaser Ch. L., 1995; Moravcsik A., 1998, 2008; .., 2004; .., 1996; ..,
2003; : .., .., 2006; .., 2001.
4
., . Thompson K. & Barnard C.I., 1997; McKenzie D., 2003; Baum A.C.J. & Dobbin F., 2002; .., 2008.
5
Drucker P.F., 1992; Drucker P.F., 1983, 1997; Drucker P.F. Management tasks, responsibilities, practices. NY, 1973; Drucker P.F.
Post-Capitalist Society, NY, 1994; Drucker P.F., Collins J., Kotler P., Kouzes J., Rodin J., Rangan V., 2008; Drucker P.F. Classic Drucker,
2006; Follett M.P., 1938, 2003; . : McGregor D., 1961; Mayo G.E.; L.: Routeledge, 2007.; Mayo G.E. The Human Problems of
an Industrial Civilization, 2003; McNamara C., 2005, 2008; Shim J. K., Siegel J., 2007; Duck J.D., 2007; Gitman L.J., 2008; Kotler P.,
2008; P. Kotler, J. Bowen, J. Makens, 2008; Cherchill G.A. Jr., Nielsen A.C. Jr., 2007; Roosevelts F.D., 1938; Parkinson C. N., 1955;
Fowler E.M., 1957; OSullivan J., 2008; .., 2001, 2007; .., 2007; .., 2004;
.., 2005, 2006; .., 2007; .., 2005; .., 1997; .., 1998; .., 2009;
.., .., 2006; .., 2010; .., 2003; .., .., .. 2006;
.., 2007; . ., 1998; .., 2010; . ., 2010; .., 2010; . .,
. ., .., 2010; .., .., 2009; ..; . ., .., 2010;
., 2010; .., 2010; .., .., 2010; ., 2010; .., ..,
.., 2010; , 2010; .., .., 2010; ., ., 2010; .., 2010;
.., 2010; .., 2008; .., 2010; .., 2010; .., 2010; ..,
2

570


,
, ,
, .
,



() .
,
,
,
.
,

,

. ,
,

. .. (. ),
(2007),

,
.
,

.
,

2010; .., 2010; .., 2010; .., .., .., 2010; .., 2010;
.., 2010; .., .., 2010; ., 2010; .., 2010; .., 2010; ..,
2010; ., 2010; ., 2010; .., .., 2010; .., .., 2010; ..,
.., 2010; .., 2010; .., 2010; .., .., 2010; .., 2010; .., 2009;
.., 2010; .., 2010; .., 2010; ., ., ., .,
2010; ., 2010; .., 2009; ., 2006; .., 2010; .., 2010; ..,
.., .., 2009; .., .., 2008; .., 2010; ., 2010; ..,
2010; . ., 2004.

571

. ,
.
( . . maneggiare () .
. Manus )
: 1, 2,
3, 4, 5,
6, HRM7, 8,
9; 10, 11,
12, 13,
14, 15, 16,
17, 18, 19.



,
:
.
1

Drucker P.F. Reflections of a social ecologist//Society, May/June 1992; Drucker P.F. Concept of the corporation, NY, 1983, 1997,;
Drucker P.F. Management tasks, responsibilities, practices, 1973; Drucker P.F. Post-Capitalist Society, 1994; Drucker P.F., Collins J.,
Kotler P., Kouzes J., Rodin J., Rangan V., 2008; Drucker P.F. Classic Drucker, 2006.
2
- .. Follett M.P.,
: . . Follett M.P., 1938, 2003; . : McGregor D., 1961; Mayo G.E., 2007; Mayo G.E., 2003;
.., 2010.
3
. . .., 1998; .., 2000; . ., 2004; ., 2007.
4
McNamara C., MBA, 2005; McNamara C. Field, 2008; Shim J. K., Siegel J., 2007; Duck J.D., 2007.
5
.., 2010; ., ., 2010; .., .., 2010; .., 2010;
.., .., 2010; ., ., ., ., 2010; ., 2006; .., 2010;
.., 2010; .., 2009.
6
.., 2010; .., 2010; .., 2010; .., 2010.
7
Graham H.T., Bennet R., 2008; .., 2010; ., 2010; .., .., .., 2010;
, 2010; .., .., .., 2010; .., 2010; .., .., 2010; .,
., ., ., 2010; ., 2010.
8
., 2010; .., 2009; ., 2010.
9
.., 2010; .., 2010; .., .., 2010; .., .., 2010; ..,
.., 2010; .., 2010; .., 2010; .., 2010; .., 2010.
10
.., 2010; .., 2008; .., 2008; ., ., 2007; .., ..,
.., .., 2007; .., .., .., 2006; .., 2006; ..,
.., 2006; .., .., .., 2006; .., 2006; .., ..,
.., .., 2006.
11
Simon E., 1966; ., 2003; .., 2006.
12
.., 2010; .., 2007; .., 2007; .., 2007; .., 2007.
13
Reed S.F., Lajoux A.R., 2006; Gaughan P.A. , 2007; .., 2009; .., 2007; .., 2003; .,
2007; .., 2005; .., .., 2003.
14
.., 2010; ., 2010; .., 2010; .., 2010.
15
.., 2007; .., 2006; .., 2007; ., 2010; ., 2010; ., 2010.
16
. ., . ., .., 2010; .., 2008; .., 2010; ., 2010.
17
.., 2000; .., 2006; .. , .. , 1999; .., 1997.
18
.., 2010; .., 2010; .., 2010; .., 2010; .., 2009; ..,
2010; .., 2010; .., .., .., 2006.; .., .., 2007.
19
Gitman L.J., 2008; Kotler P., 2008; P. Kotler, J. Bowen, J. Makens, 2008; Cherchill G.A. Jr., Nielsen A.C. Jr., 2007; ..,
2001; . ., 1998; .., 2010; . ., 2010; .., .., 2009; . .,
.., 2010; .., .., 2010; .., .., 2010; .., 2010; .., 2010;
.., .., .., 2009; .., .., 2008.

572



, , ,
,
(, .)

. 19 20

,
, , .. 1.

,
. ,
.
,

. , ,
: ,
,
.
,

.
,

.



.
2

1

Roosevelts F.D., 1938.



.

573

, SMART1, ,

.
, , ,
.
.

, ,
. ,

, ,
, . ,

. ,
, , .

, .
,

, , ,

, ,

, ,
.
.
,
,
.

, ,
, ,
1

- , Project SMART,
(www.projectsmart.co.uk). SMART Specific (Significant, Stretching), Measurable (Meaningful, Motivational), Attainable (Agreed
upon, Achievable, Acceptable, Action-oriented), Relevant (Realistic, Reasonable, Rewarding, Result-oriented), Time-Bound (Timebased, Timely, Tangible, Trackable) , ,
, , , .

574

1, 2
.
, ,
.
,
.
.

, ,
,
.
,


,
, ,
.
,
,
,
.
:
.
, ,

.
, , , , .

:

,
.
( .
1

C. Northcote Parkinson, ., ., Parkinson C. N, 1955;


Fowler E.M., 1957; OSullivan J. , 2008.
, ,
.

575

bifurcus , ) , ,

,
. ,
:
,

,
, .. ,
, , ,
:

,

, .

, ,

,
, .
576

, ,


,
, ,
.

:
,
.
.
,
: 1, 2,
3, 4, 5,
6, HRM7, 8,
9; 10, 11,
12, 13,
14, 15, 16, 17,
1

Drucker P.F. Reflections of a social ecologist//Society, May/June 1992; Drucker P.F. Concept of the corporation, NY, 1983; Peter
Drucker, the man who changed the world//Business review weekly, September, 1997, p. 49; Drucker P.F. Management tasks,
responsibilities, practices. NY, 1973; Drucker P.F. Post-Capitalist Society, NY, 1994; Drucker P.F., Collins J., Kotler P., Kouzes J., Rodin
J., Rangan V. The five most important questions you will ever ask about your company. NY, 2008; Drucker P.F. Classic Drucker,
2006.
2
- .. Follett M.P.,
: . . Follett M.P., 1938, 2003; . : McGregor D., 1961; Mayo G.E., 2007; Mayo G.E., 2003;
.., 2010.
3
. . .., 1998; .., 2000; . ., 2004; ., 2007.
4
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HSBC awards global customer decisioning deal to Experian-Scorex//Bank Marketing international#6 (190) June 2006;
Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group: Banking on service//Bank Marketing international#6 (190) June 2006; Roy S.K., 2010;
Sunnikka A., Peura-Kapanen L., 2010; Re-examining traditional service quality in an e-banking era// International Journal
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15 2007.;
1
The First Council Directive #77/780/eec of 12 December 1977; The Second Council Directive #89/646/eec of 15
December 1989; Amendments to Directive #77/780/eec; Council Directive #92/121/EEC of 21 December 1992; Council
Directive #89/647/EEC of 18 December 1989; Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS), 2006; Federal Reserve
System (USA), 2007.
2
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VanHoose, 2008; J.P. Morgan bank official site (www.jpmorgan.com); Hull J., 2009; Hull J., 1990; Katolay A., 2004/2005;
Aragones J.& Blanco C., 1999; Stress-testing by large financial institutions: current practices and aggregation issues, Basel:
Switzerland Bank for International Settlements, 2000; Dowd K., 2008; . , 2009; Thomas S., 1998, 2007; Miller M.,
1998; Shah A.& Thomas S., 2006.
3
Yuh-Dauh Lyuu, 2007, 2009
4
.. , .. ., 2005,2007; .. , .. , .. , 2002; . , 2006,
2008; .. , .. , 2002; .. , .. , 2001.
5
J.P. Morgan bank official site (www.jpmorgan.com); Hull J., 2009; Hull J., 1990; Katolay A., 2004/2005; Aragones J.&
Blanco C., 1999; Stress-testing by large financial institutions: current practices and aggregation issues, Basel: Switzerland
Bank for International Settlements, 2000; Dowd K., 2008; Thomas S., 1998, 2007; Miller M., 1998; Shah A.& Thomas S.
Market microstructure considerations in index construction, Chicago: CBOT Research Symposium Proceedings, 2006; .
, 2009.
6
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= 0 ,03%
( + )
1+

(785)

97,6%,
2002 1
. 01 ,
,
, -

, , ,
.
0,00%
, .

685




( ):


,
.

,
.
, 1
, 99,2% .
:

1() =

1
1
=
1 + 1 + 1 /

(786)


.
,
,

-
. (786)
,

. , , , ,
,
, ,
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, (
),
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!

686

-
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, , 3/4 (75%), 2/3 (67%),
!

,
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,

,
. , ,
,
! ,
170
, !
, ,
,
!
(786): , ,
+2,718281828. ,
(787):

= 55,25 1,03635 * f 1 + 0 ,468777 * f 2 12,2651506 *


* f 3 + 3,925621 * f 4 + 0 ,687027 * f 5 + 12,47758 * f 6
0 ,00789 * f 7 0 ,00666 * f 8 0 ,042903 * f 9 0 ,19779 *
* f 10 + 1,539766 * f 11 + 1,888308 * f 12 + 530 ,4697 * f 13 +
+ 0 ,786398 * f 14 3,1396 * f 15 0 ,75368 * f 16 6 ,68568 *
* f 17 + 2,13042 * f 18 + 3,108512 * f 19 1,93021 * f 20
1,05627 * f 21 + 2,085746 * f 22 3,24607 * f 23 + 1,74646 *
* f 24 + 2,303192 * f 25 + 5,261111 * f 26 + 86 ,23883 * f 27 +
+ 0 ,878808 * f 28 3,11271 * f 29 12,8332 * f 30 + 15,90706 *
* f 31 0 ,04225 * f 32
687

, ,

. ,
1 11%,
. , ,
.
, ,
.
f, .
. : f0 ,
55,25. ,
,
, 1() / (786)/.
f1 (
) () ():

f 1 = /

(788)

(788)
. ,
.
f2 ()
():

f 2 = /

(789)

,
.
. 01,
. , ,
2010 01
01, , 0 / 3;
1,6 ./.

,
. ,

(789),
.
688

f3 ()
():

f 3 = /

(790)

(790) ,
,
.
, ,

!
f4 /
/ ()
():

f 4 = /

(791)

,
,
, ,
.
f5
() ():

f 5 = /

(792)

(792)
( )
.
,
.
f6 ()
():

f 6 = /

(793)

(793)
. 10% ( ),
, .
f7 ()
():
689

f 7 = /

(794)

. (794)
,
, , (,
).
f8
()
() ( ):

f 8 = /

(795)

(795)
,

,
,
. 0
.
(
),
, .
, (795),

.
f9
() :
();
();
() / (),
// ():

f 9 =

+ +

(796)

(796)
,
, .
f10 ()
( ()) ():
690

f 10 = /

(797)

(797) ,
.

, .
f11
() ():

f 11 = /

(798)


, .
.
f12 ()
():

f 12 = /

(799)

(799) .

, , ,
, ,
, . ,
. , ,
.
.
-,
, .
f13
// () ():

f 13 = /

(800)

(800)
.
,

.

691

-
!

f14 ,
()
();
():


Af 14 =

(801)

(801) ,

,
,
,
.
f15 ()
():

f 15 = /

(802)

,
.
f16
, ()
():

f 16 = /

(803)


,
. ,
, , .

, .
f17
()
().

f 17 = /
692

(804)

,
.

.
f18
() ():

f 18 = /

(805)


, ,
, .
,
.
f19 () ():

f 19 = /

(806)

f20 ,
()
():

f 20 = /

(807)

f21
/ , / ()
( )
():

f 21 = /

(808)

f22 ()
():

f 22 = /
(809)
f23
,
()
():

f 23 = /
693

(810)

f24
() ():

f 24 = /

(811)

f25 ,
() ():

f 25 = /

(812)

f26 ,

() ():

f 26 = /

(813)

f27 ()
():

f 27 = /

(814)

,
.
85% 90%
.
.
f28 ()
():

f 28 = /

(815)

,
.
, .
, ,

.
f29 (ln) (),
:

f 29 = log e ( ) = ln( )

(816)

(816)
( ). ,
694


,
.
f30 (ln) (),
:

f 30 = log e ( ) = ln( )

(817)

(817)
(, ).
.
f31 (ln)
(), :

f 31 = log e ( ) = ln( )

(818)

(181)
( ).


.
f32 (cos)
(), :

f 32 = cos( )

(819)

,


.

695

696

697

698

699

700

701

702



.
,
,
(820):
j
4
4

=
j

=
j 1,35



j = 1 1 + 4
j = 1 1 + 1 / 4

: . j

. 4


. ,
(821):

P = 1,683646745 0 ,258719548 * log 10 (CK ) 0 ,107930848 *


* log 10 ( ) + 0 ,284747857 * log 10 ( A) 0 ,239147235 *
* log 10 ( ) + 0 ,019815576 * log 10 ( ( ) + ( ))
: ;
;
;
; ()
; ()
; log10
10.
703

1,35
,
. 1,35 2
.
2 3,
,
.
,
,
.
3,

. ,

.

99,9999989%

2007 2010
( 174,7
).

99,9999989%.
, 174,7 ,
, ;
, 820, ,
! ,
!

704

III.
IFRS () (GAAP)
IFRS IAS ?

( ), .
, ,
, , . ,
! ,
,

.
, ,
, , IAS1 IFRS 2.
3, ,
. , IAS

( ), IFRS

. ,
,
.
,
. ,
. ,
, 4,
.

, , , ,
.
IFRS, , ,
. ,
IFRS.
1

IAS International Accounting Standards


, IASB International Accounting Standards
Board (
).
2
IFRS International Financial Reporting Standards
,
IAS.
3
, IFRS,
IAS.
4
,
(01 ), IAS
.

705

706

()
((Consolidated) statement of financial position)
I)
1) (Property, plant and equipment)
,
(IFRS). 1980 ,
1982 IAS 16 (Property, plant and equipment; [ ;
: , ]).
01 2009 .
(
01 )
, , ,
, ,
:

(IAS 16.7).
IAS 16.43
() ,
, ,
,

. ,
,

,

(IAS 16.14).

,
, /, ,
,
, , , ,


(IAS 16.15, 16.16, 16.17; IAS 37 (Provisions, contingent liabilities and contingent

707

assets [ , 1 ])).
, , ,
2 (IAS 16.23).
, ( ,

). , 100..
3,5%, 10 ,
(100*(10,035)10=70.., , 100/((1+0,035)10)=70,89..
.

(

).
IFRS

, ,
, , ,
.
,
.
IAS 16.24,
,
1

,
, ;
,
,
(5%)
.
,
,
, .
,
(
,
),
,
, , 8 .
,
:

(, - ).
2
, ,

- (, ) -
(, ).

708

,
-
. ,
,
(
, ),
, /
/ .
.
: IAS 16.30
IAS 16.32 .
, ,
, .
,
( 1 )
, , -
( ).
.
(Income statement)
, (Depreciation,
amortization and provisions)1.

,
, ,

. ,

,
.
2, ,
1

,
( IFRS V Noncurrent assets held for sale and discontinued operations [ ,
( ,
)]).
2
, ,
,
;

, ,
( () .

709

. ,

,
, : , , ,
: (revaluation
surplus) (. IAS 16.39) :
, ,
,
1.

,
(retained earnings), ,
.
, IAS IFRS .


. , , ,

. ,

, , -
,
,
.
,
.
, ,
. , ,
, , ,
, 2. ,

, , .

.
1
, , IAS,
16.41 .
2

. , , 10%
10 , ,
.

710

,
, ,
. ,
- ,
, ,
2 ,
,
. , ,
,
,
,

. ,
, .
,
.
, , :
.
. ,

.

1. , .

, .

, ,
, , - ,
/
.

.
1

, , , 1
( ,
).
200 . . , 20% (200 ./1
.), , 20%
.

711

,
. ,
10.000.000.
5.000, 12.000 1,
8.000. ,
5 .
500
5 .
, 5-
7.500.000 5 .
9.000.
-, , 12.000.

4%.
(
).
: 10.000.000+5.000+12.000+8.000 -
,
9.000/(1+0,04)5=7.398 5 ,
.
10.032.398.
,
: 10.032.398 (7.500.000+12.000)/((1+0,04)5)=6.174.453
= 3.858.945.
, 01
, 3.858.945/5=771.616.

( 771.616 ), , , ,

.

, 10.032.398 - 7.500.000 12.000 = 2.520.398. , ,
1

, ,
; .
.

712

504.080 ,
.
,
. ,
,
5 15.000,
.
10.032.398 - 15.000/(1,04)5) = 10.020.069.
2.004.014.
, :
, , ,
, ,
, , .
, ,
.
. , ,
. , ?
? ,
.. ,
,
, .
:
( ):
, (land, buildings and facilities);
, (equipment and other property,
plant and equipment); ,
(property, plant and equipment under
construction) ,
, . ,
, ,
,
.
, ?
: ,
1 (acquisitions linked to business combinations)
1

.
-, (, 2%
- ), (,

713


; (other acquisitions); ,
(assets sold or scraped);
(exchange differences on translating foreign
operations); /
,
/ (transfer to investment property);
(other movements and transfers);
(other). ,
, ,
, ,
, ,

.
,
.

.
, ,
(acquisitions)! ,
IFRS III , 2005 .
(purchase). 2005
- (business-combinations)
.
(acquisition method; IFRS 3.4).
.
1. ,

IFRS 3.7.
2. (acquisition date),

, IFRS 3.8.
3.
, ,
Daimler Chrysler Daimler-Chrysler),
. .

714

,
, .
4. - ( ).
-, , ,
,
, IFRS 3.32 [

,
IFRS III], NCI Non-Controlling
Interests - ,
; NCI ,
. NCI 2:
- (Full goodwill method)
.
.
75% 750.000. ,
100%
500.000. 25% , .
25% (NCI)
, , 25%*500.000=125.000.
- (750.000+125.000)500.000=375.000.
NCI -, ,
. (750.000*25%*i)/75% = 250.000 i=1.
1:
750.000 * 25% 750.000 * 0,25
750.000 - 75%
;750.000 * 25% = * 75%; =
=
= 250.000
75%
0,75
- 25%

NCI - :
(750.000+250.000) - 500.000 = 500.000. 500.000
i,
( ,
: , , ,
) ,
IFRS 3.19.
1

, ! ,
, , ,
.

715

, ,
, - (acquisitions
linked to business combinations).


(transfer to investment property).
IAS 40, 01
2001 . 22 2008 01 2009
. , ,
,
,
. ,
, 2009
.
(, , , ),
( , ,
)
,

,
, ,

( IAS 40.5). ,
, ,
, . , ,
, ,
, (IAS 2 (Inventories));
, ,
;
,
. , ,
, : ?
, ?!
, , !
.
,
, , ,
, .

716

,
.
, , .
,
: .
2) (Intangible assets)
IFRS IAS 38.
01 1999 01 2009
.
1,
2,

, , ,
3
(IAS 38.8). IFRS ,
, , , ,
, ,
, , ,
, - .
,
,
.

,
. , ,
,
,
, ,
1

,
.
2
:

,
.
,
.
3

, ,
.

717

, ,
.
-? ,
, , , -
, ,
. ! ! ,
- (business combinations)
,
. , , ?
,
.
1. ,

IFRS 3.7.
2. (acquisition date),

, IFRS 3.8.
3.
, ,
, ,
, .
4. - ( ).
NCI
. NCI
,
.
IAS 38, ,
, ,
.

,
,
, ,

718

1,
, ,

, 2.
,
, ( )
( 3). 71
,
, : ,
!
, ,
,
1

(capitalization) .
, ,
(/ )
(
( ,

)); , , , .
: ,
, (
/). , ( ,
),

, IAS 16.
2
, ,
, .
3

( 88 IAS
38).
, , , ,

( 97 IAS 38).
,
.

,
. ,
( IFRS V).
,
, ,
.
,
(
).
IAS 36 Impairment of assets [ ],
,
/
/ :

.
(IAS 8 Accounting policies, changes in accounting
estimates and errors [ ]).

719

, (IAS 38.51; IAS 38.63).


:
- (IAS 38.36); ,
; ;
(IAS 38.57).
, ,
.

. (Acquisitions
and internal development); , (acquisitions linked to business combinations);
(assets sold or scrapped);
(exchange
differences on translating foreign operations);
(other movements and transfers).
. ,
(amortization for the year);
/ , / (assets
sold or scrapped);
/ ,
/ (exchange differences on translating foreign operations);
/ ,
/ (other movements and transfers).
,
.
: ( )
- ( ). .
, -,
(2+1 ( ) )

( ). -

(business-combinations) ,
. -
NCI
, -

720

. -
,
, . ,
.
NCI -
, , .
-
,
-. , ,
-?
3) -
?
?!
- (. Goodwill ,
)
1,
.
, ,
, , .
, - ().
- : .
- -, .
-
,
-. IFRS III (Business combinations
), -
.
, -,
-, , -,
. ,
-, ,
-.
, -
.
1

, - ,
, , - ,
,
.

721


-: -, , ,
, PR-.
.
1) - -
1,
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, , .
,
. ,
, ,
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- ( ;
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). ,
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.
.
, , .

. , ,
(

).
,
,
, (
,
, , ,
). , ,

. ,
.
1

- ,
.
,
, -
.

722


, (
-). ,
-
-,
. , , :
, ?!.
,
, , 20-25%
( )!

. ,
,
.

. (i).
?
- .
. -
,
. -
.
- ,
,

,
!
. 100.000
, ,
( , ) 1 . .
,
7%. , .
,
7%, 1 . * 7% (0,07) = 70 . .
100 . 70 .
30 . - .

723


(7%). -
30.000/7% (0,07)=428.571,4.
, -, ,
.
.
, - .
, , , : ,
- ?!. -
. ,

, -,
, ,

.
, -, -,

(
, ,
).
, , ,
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, ,
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- .
-,
, , ,

.
.

,
,
.
-
: -. ,

724

-
, .
- :

( ) *
=
(1 + ) n

(822)

:
( );
;

( , ); n
.
, ,
,
-.
, -
-. , .
2) -
(
), ,

. , , ,

, () (
).
,
. -
. , -
( )
(
).
-;

-, , !
.

5, 20 .
. 80 . . -

725

[20.000*5]-80.000 = 100.000-80.000 = 20.000.


-.
,
,
,
. ,
.

, , ,
, .
3)


, - ,
, -
. .
,
, , ,
. ,
.
, ,
( ) , ,
. , ,
-.
.
100 . .
, , 210 . .
110 . -. -
(
.). ,
www.pizza.com,
, 5 .
! Yahoo,
Microsoft,
.
-
, , .
(, pizza)
.
726

4)

,

.
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. , ,
. ,
,
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.

, ,
.
727

. ,
: , ,
, ;
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.
/ , .
;
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, ,
, ,
. / ,
/ ;

, - ;
( ( ) (
( ))).
:
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( ).
(, , , ..)
, ;


.

. -,
, ,
, , -
. - , , ,

(
),
- ( ,
, ,
, ,
).

728

,
- .

, , .
.

( ). ,

.

,
. 20-25%
, .
, ,
,
. ,
, ,
,
, -.
, ,
i ,
.
, ,
, ,
-,
, , ,
.
,
-,
- .
, ,
100.000,
65.000. (
) 290.000.
, 100.000-65.000 =
35.000. .
12,069%. ,
729

- 6,5 9%
( ,
).
(6,5+9)/2 = 7,75%.
,
: 290.000*7,75% (0,0775) =
22.475 (
).

: 35.000 - 22.475 = 12.525.

.
,

,

7,75%. - 161.612,9.
,
, ,

, , -,
,
. -
,
.

, ,
, .
5)

- PR-

PR ..
.
, -
- , , , PR
PR , . , ,
. .
PR? PR? .
PR Public Relations - ? ,
, , ! ,
PR.

730

PR
, .
, , , ,
, ,
, 1. .
PR , , ,
. ,
( ),
,
,
, ..
, PR .
, , PR:
, . .
. . 1992
PR, PR
, , .
, , - ,
.
:

ZOPA

: PR

ZOPA Zone Of Possible Agreement PR


, .

,
.
,
, .
, , . ,
:
1

PR .
PR

(., , .., 1998, 2006).

731

ZOPA

: PR

,
. ,
, .

ZOPA

: PR
.
PR . PR

.
,
, :

PR
, ,
, ,
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.
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.
732

, , .
, , , PR
, , .

, .

.
, ?
PR, , PR .
, 8 PR,
.
. ,
:

,
,


, ,

733

. PR
.
, , PR
,
! , . , ,
PR
. , ,
PR.
, : 1; 2;

Publicity
(,
) 3;
4; PR 5; 1;
2; 3.
1

,
, .
, , .
,
,
.
2
,
, , , . ,
, , , , ,
, , , (,
), (, ),
(, )
( .
3
.
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.
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: ,
.
,

.
,
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.
4
.

.
.
5
PR.
PR.
, PR-, ,

734

-.
. PR- ,
, - ,
, .
- , ,
.
-
.
-
-. ,
- (goodwill).
? ? .
- ,
- (
,
).

( ), - (
), ..
PR : PR
, , , -
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, , . ,
, ,
.
1
PR :
.
:
.

,
.
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, .
2
PR.

.
.
3
PR.
. , , ,
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, ,
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, - .

735

.
,

. -
.
-
. , -

, ()
, , .
-
:

, -.
:
.

736

4) (Investment property)
1 1987 IAS 25 (Accountings for
investments [ ]).
01 2001
, IAS 40 (Investment property
[ ]). , , ,
:
1
, 1
( ) .
: .

, . , , 2007
IAS 40, ,

.
.
, ? IAS 40.5
. ,
, , ,
-, ,
,

2. 2008
,
.
1


.
2
, , ,
,
, ,
, ,
,
,
.
,

, , -
. ,
.

.

737


.
,
.
,

, .

, 1,
.
,
.
.
;
. 1
2009
(., ., IAS 40.53).
,
.
,
, ,

. .

IAS 16. , 01 2009
,

, ,
0, ,
.
, , :
?! IAS 40 30 ,

: . , IAS
40 , ,
1

, .

738

, ,
.
,
1 . ,
, ,
, /.

, .
,
,
.
,
, ,
.
IAS 40
.
, ,
,
,

2

, 3;
,
(IAS 40.6; IAS 17 Leases).
,
- ,
. ,


1

.
,
(IAS 40.45).
(IAS 40.46).
2
, , :
,
,
-
.
3
, IAS 17
(Leases []).

739

,
. ,

,
,

( 5%) (IAS 40.10).
,
. ,

1 ,
,
.
2
,
(IAS 40.13).
,
3.
, ,
.
, ,

(IAS 40.15).
, ,
.

, ,
(
); ,
1

( 5-7% (
, ,
)) , ,
;
; ()
.
2
, ,
1

.
3
, ,
, , ;
, .

740

(
);
, , , (
);
, ,
(
);

(
( ) )
. . ,
,
, ,

, (IAS 40.58).

, ,

, , .
(
),

.
, (
)
/.
,
(
)
/.

, ,
, .
, ,
,

/ ,

741

.
/ .

:
, - (acquisitions linked to
business combinations); (other acquisitions);
(assets sold or scraped);
, (amortization for the year);
(impairment); (reversal of
impairment provisions);
(exchange differences on translating foreign operations);
(Transfer from Property, plant and equipment). ,
: (+
, [()] );

(+ ; [()]
;
.
,
1.

.
,
: (investments in associates).
5) (investments in associates)

1986 ,
EDE 28
Accountings for investments in associates and Joint Ventures (
).
1989 IAS 28 Accountings for
investments in associates ( ).
01 2009 ,

.
1

, ,
.

742

, , , ,
?
1.
, ,
,
.
,
,
2, ,
. ,

,
. ,
,
( ).
. ,
,

() ,
. , 6 IAS 28 ,
, 20%
50% ,
( , ,
) 3. 20%
,
.
4.
1

. ,

. ().
2
,
.
.
IAS 39 Financial instruments: recognition and measurement
( : ),
IAS 28 , ,
.
3
, , 20%-50%
.
4
, 20% ,
(
).

743

1 (equity method), ,
,

.
IAS 28
2. ,

3. -
-,

.
.
.
.

.
(,
).

.
1
. , ,
,
,
(
, - ,
- /
-).
2
. ,
,
,
IAS 39, ,
, ,

/. ,

IFRS-V.
, ( ,
).
,
.
,
, ;
,
.
,
, , ,
. , ,
- .
,

-
,
.
3
, -
, ,
. ,

744

()
.
,
.
25% .
, 1.000.000.

1
25%*1.000.000*i=250.000 i=1 .

.
( ) [Results for the period (share of profit and
impairment)];
(dividends paid and repayment of capital);
(equity interests acquired);
(other acquisitions and increases in capital); [
2
] (disposals) ;
(exchange differences on foreign operations);
(others). , ,

.

( (total assets);
(shareholders equity); (revenue); (net
profit) .
,
. , ,
-
, 20%
, IAS 39
.
1

i , ,
.
, 1.
2

, , .
, , 38% 99% ,

, .
, ,
, , , 2007 ,
36 .
Anthousa Ltd. ( ).

745

- 1, 0
NS 2.
,
.
, , .
: ,
- ,
,
/. , ,

,
, ,
,
, , ,
.

. 3
4.

.
,
,

, ,
, .
1

, , 10.000, 20
.
2
NS Not Significant .
3
, ,
- , ,
.
, .
4
. 1
(consolidated statement of financial position); 2
(consolidated income statement); 3
(consolidated statement of
comprehensive income); 4
(consolidated statement of cash-flows); 5
(consolidated statement of changes in equity); 6 (notes
to consolidated financial statement).

746

6) (customer loans credit activities)



, , , ,
1.
,
, .
. , , , -
, ?!

.
,
2.
.
, , ,
, ,
. , ,
7%, 1.000
1.000*(1+0,07)1=1.070;
1.000*(1+0,07)2=1.144,9. .
, :
n
(823)

= AR * (1 + i )

: Am Amortization
AR (Accounts Receivable) n .
,
, IAS,
. IAS
.

, , ,
IAS ,
.
1

,
(,
, ).
2

,
.
IASB 2%
. , ,
.

747

, ,
, -
,
.
, ;

.
: ( 03
); ( 03 01 ); ( 01
05 ) ( 05 ).
;
, , .
:
, !

( ),
,
(,
).
,
,

. ,
,
.

,
,

. ,
(),
(
).
:

,
.

748

7) (derivative financial
instruments
(non-current))

: IAS 39
, ,
: ()
1. ,
,
, .
.
, ,
. 1998 ,

, IAS 39.
,
. 01 2010
,
, , , .
IAS 39 .

,
,

2.
1

() ,
, ,
.
. .
, ,
() . IAS 39
, !
2
IAS 39 . 1
, ,
IAS 27, IAS 28, IAS 31; ,
IAS 27, IAS 28, IAS 31 ,
IAS 39, , , ,
() ; 2
( IAS 37);
, IAS 32;
- (,
), - ;
(,
);
, ,
.

749


.
,
1.
2.

( IAS 37)
3.
/.
, ,
,

,
( ,
, +/- 20%-25% - ).
-
IAS 39. -
4.
IAS 39 (weather
derivatives)5.
1

, ,
;
, ;
, ,
(IAS 39.2).
2
,
: (IAS
39), (IFRS-IV),
,
, .
3
,
(, ).
,

.
4
IAS 39 ,

- (-
(, , .),
,
, , , ;
,
), , (
) .
5
, 2009
21% . ,
.

750

2003 IAS 39,


, IFRS-IV
( ), , ,
,
. ,
.
,
. ,
1 2.
, ,
,
. ,
. HDD5
CDD5 , ,
.
.
, ,
,
. , 01 .
.
HDD 18 ,
5.000 . ,
5.000 ,
5.000 . 01 ,
. ,
,
,
.
1
IAS 39 , ,
; ,
;

, ,
, ; ,
(
,
,
; ,


(

-).
2

IAS 39 ,
, ,
,
,
; ,


(

-).

751

;
(,
), 1, ,
.
.
: , , ,
, ,
.
IAS 39
/

,
, .
.
IAS 39

,
, .
( . futures , ,
/ ) IAS 39
/
, ,
,
.
:
; ;
.
( . option ) IAS 39 ,
, /
, ,
( ).
- , ; - , -.
(
1

,
(, ,
)
.

752

), (
).
( . cap ,
) ( . floor , ). -
,
;
. -. -
, , ,
, , , .
- ,
, IAS 39 .
?
( . hedge
, , ), , .
. , ,

. :
( ,
),
( ).

. ,
, ,
, .
,
.

, LIBOR. ,
LIBOR, . ,
LIBOR, -
LIBOR. , LIBOR,
, -.
.
.
IAS 39.

753

,

. , ,
,
, IAS 39?! IAS 39
, , 11,
, , ,
, , ,
.

;
,

.

, IAS 39:
1)
;
2) ,
,
,
, ,
, ,
,
.
,
,

;
3) /
,
,

, .
,
.

/ .
754

,

/.
, IAS
39, ,
,
, IASB,
2005 2008 .
,
, ,
, /IAS 39.50/ ( 01 2009.
). , ,
, ,
, ,
.
IAS 39 (IAS 39.63 39.65).
, ,
.
,
, ,
.
, ,
.
IAS 39 -
.
ED 162-B,
. IAS 39
, , .
BSM, , .

---.

. -, IAS 39
: , ,
755

- -. , ,
, .
IAS 39 ,
, , .
, , ,
. ,
,
.
IAS 39 ,
80% 125%, ,
. ,
,
! IAS 39 %
.
, IAS 39
, , ,

.
, ,
IAS 39.
,
,

1. :

( ).
,

.

( 113 IAS 39).

1

, ,
, ;
,
. ,
, ,
.
.

756

!

/.
IAS 39 ,
. .
,
, , ,
.

( 01 ); (
01 ); (
01 );
( 01 )
, ,
.
.

.
8)
( )
.
,
, , , .
.
,
.
.
.

/ :
; ,
;
; ; -
; ; ,
; .

757


,
.

, , ,
.
,
(,
, , ,

).
,
. ,
, ,
,
, ,
.
,
, , .
, ,
, .

II)
1)
(Inventories)
1974 ,
-2 (2),

.
,
, 1975 , IAS 2
. IAS
(), 1994 ,
IAS 2, , ,
01 1995 . IAS 2
2003 ( 2005 ).

758

IAS 2.6 3 : ( : raw


materials); ( : work in
process); ( : finished goods).
IAS 2.2 .
, , .
, , (
-,
IAS 41 ).
( IAS 11
). IAS 2.3 :
.
, ,
, .
, -

/,
.
IAS 2.9 ,
: NRV (net realizable value)

, .
NRV ,
/
, .
IAS 2.10 , .
:
) .
, , , ,
.
) (
),
(,
: ,
, - ).
) ,
.

759

IAS 2.16 IAS 2.18 ,


:
) ( ,

).
) .
) - ,
.
) .
) ,
- .
, ,
,
.
IAS 2 21 22

.
(FIFO first in first out
, .), , .
(LIFO last in first out, .,
) 2003
.

.
.
-
/, IAS 18, .
,
.
- .
,
. ,
.
.
2)
(Customer loans credit activities and
trade receivable)

760

,
. ,
( 01 (
)) ( 01 ( )).

. ,
,
.

;

.
.
.
.
. , ,
, IFRS
, .
(
).
3)
(current/deferred tax assets)

: . , IAS 12
Income taxes ,
. 24 ,


, ,
, ,
,
, -
(, , .).
.
, - ,
/
-, ,

761

,
.
,
, ,
.
,
, (IAS 12.51). IAS
12.53 (
)
!
, ,

, IAS 12 82

.
4)
(Cash and cash equivalents)
, !
. -,
,

. -, ,
/
3 .
-,
.
. ,

.
5)

) (derivative financial
instruments (current))
.

. , ,
, ,

.
.
762

) (other current
receivables)
,
(
, ,
); .
,

(, ).
,
(,

).
, .

, (,
,
).
) ,
(assets classified as held for sale)
,
.
.
(
, ).

,
.
. ,
,
, , IAS,
:

IRFS.
,
. .

763

III) (equity)

. ,
IFRS.
. -,
: ,
, .
. ,
,
. ,
50% ,
. , ,
50% ( )
,
!

. , ,

/ ,
,
,
, ,
. ,
, , , ,
, !

.
, .
,
, ,
.
1) () (Share capital)
,
.
,
.
764

:
( 1% 5% ).

,
,

/ -.

(treasury
stock//reacquired stock) , ,
, .
.
,
,
() .
.
2) (Share premiums)

.
, ,
.
.

.


.
3) (Reserves and
net/retained income)
, ,
. ,
, .
,
. ,

, .
,
.
: ,
765

. ,
:
, , , ,
, , ,

, .
.
4) (Minority interests)
.
,
.
50,001% . , ,
, , ,
.
5) (Reappraisal fund)

.
/
. ,

.
, .
, ,
,
.
5
.

IFRS.
IV) (Non-current liabilities)

.
(liabilities) .
.
.
1) (Provisions)

766

.
,
:







/,


,
,
. ,

.
.
,
. -
, ,
, ,
,
. ,
, (,

),
.
2) (Borrowings and other
financial liabilities)

767

, , ,
IFRS.
, , .
,
,
.
, ,
.
- (,
, );
( , , ,
EURIBOR 3M + 0,22% EURIBOR (European Union Interbank Offered Rate
) 3 . 0,22%); ;
; ( 2 );
( 2 ).
.
,
.

: -;
( , , ,
LIBOR 2M +0,575% ( LIBOR (London Interbank
Offered Rate ) 2 +
0,575%)); ; ;
( 2 ); ( 2
).
,
. , ,
2010.,
,
( )
EURIBOR 3M. ,
,
. ,


. , ,

768

,
,
, ,
:
, EURIBOR 3
.
.
.
(
).

( ).

,
()
, .

.

( ).
(overdraft=cash credit (, , ,
.)), , ,
,
, ,
. , , , , ,

. 1)
2) 3)
4) 5)
.
,
.
.
2009/2010 , IFRS,
,
.

769


.
3)

(Non-current derivative financial instruments)


,
. ,
, .

( ,
, ). IFRS
,
, . ,

,
, ,
ED 162-B, , BSM,
, .
,
, .
, .
4) ,
(Debt financing the credit activity)
,
,
.
? IFRS
: , , ;
;
,
, ,
.
, , .
,
,
.
, ,
.
770

- (,
, );
( , , ,
EURIBOR 3M + 0,22% EURIBOR (European Union Interbank Offered Rate
) 3 . 0,22%); ;
; ( 2 );
( 2 ).
.
,
.

: -;
( , , ,
LIBOR 2M +0,575% ( LIBOR (London Interbank
Offered Rate ) 2 +
0,575%)); ; ;
( 2 ); ( 2
).
.
2009/2010 , IFRS,
,
.

.
5)
deferred tax liabilities)

(Non-current

,

IAS 12 Income taxes .
IAS 12 ,

.
: 01
, ,
.

771

,

(IAS 12.15).
,
- .
,
,
/,
.
,

, ,

, ,
.

47, 51, 53 IAS 12.
,

,
.


.
.

/
, ,
,
, , (IAS
12.58). ,
,

(IAS 12.61).
,
,
,

772

- (IFRS III Business Combinations -).


, , -
,

(IAS 12.52).

, :
: IFRS

/

,






,

: /

: 1
. 0
. /
( ).

, ,
. , ,
.
, ,

IFRS.
:

773

:
IFRS


,

,


:
/


774


(
) (
). ,

, .
6) (Other non-current liabilities)
.
:
) ,
.
) ,
.
) ,
.
) .
V) (Current liabilities)
1) (Provisions)

. ,
, (
) .
.
2) (Borrowings and
other financial liabilities)

. ,
,
( ) .
.
3)

(Current derivative financial instruments)


775



. ,
.
4) (Current deferred
tax liabilities)

. ,
,
( ) .
.
5) (Trade payable)
, ,
, .

V- , IFRS

.
IFRS

IFRS
;
,
; .

.
( ,
, ) .
6) ,
(Liabilities classified as held for sale)

.
,
776


. ,
.

,
, /

: ,

.
7) (Other current liabilities)
, ;
;
;
(
, ).
,
. , IFRS ,
, , ,
.
.
,

, ,
,
.

()
((Consolidated) income statement)

IFRS.

777

778

. & . .
,
. Y ,


. + ,
+
(: Net profit from assets
held for sale and discontinued operations). EPOS Earnings per share (from
continuing operations attributable to owners of the parent)
() ( ,
). EPOS
EPOS.

.
, IFRS 26 .
.
1)

(Revenue)

IAS 18 Revenue .
1982 ,
IAS 18 (Revenue),
20 (Revenue recognition ).
2009 ,
.
IAS 18.7 :

,
,

, , ,
,

, , ;
, ),
.
779

IAS 18.9,
.
,

( )
,
. 12 IAS 18,
, ,
. - ,
, -
: SIC 31 Revenue barter transactions involving advertising services
, .
,
(, ),

(IAS 18.11). , ,

,
,
.

:
1) , ,
,
,
.
2) .
,
2009
, .
I) (IAS 18.14). ,
:

, .

780

,
,
.
, , ,
,

,
.

.
, ,
, .
,

.
II) (IAS 18.20).

,
.

,
. ,

.

.
, ,
, .
,
.
,

.

781

III) , (IAS 18.29; IAS 18.30; IAS 39).


,

,

.

:
: ,
IAS 39.
: ,
.
: ,
.
IV)

.
,
: ;
; ; ; ;
,
, , .
.

, , ,

, ,
, , , .
2) (Cost of sales)
.
,
,

;
; .
:
( , -
782

). ,
.
, ,
; ; ,
. ,

.
3)

(Gross profit)

.
4) (Payroll expenses)
IFRS
:
;
;
; 1
.
, ,
.
.
5)

(External expenses)

,
.
6)

, (Amortization, Depreciation and

provisions)

,
, .

,
1


, , ,
.

783

.
- .
, ,
, .
, ,
.
,
:
: 1

)
)
)
(
)
:

()

()

()

()

()

()

,
, .
7 8) (Other recurring
operating profit and expenses)

. ,
, /
( ) ,
.
1

, , , , , .


. , ,
, . ()
, .

784

,
(
)
.
, , ,

,
, .
9) (Operating
profit from continuing operations)

, ,
, ,
.
10) (Other operating profit
and expenses)
(7) (8) ,
, (10) ,
.
11) (Operating profit)

/ -.
,
, /
.

, .
IFRS ,
, ,
.

785

12) () (Revenue from


cash and cash equivalents)
, ,
,
. ,
. ,
,
.
.
,
, .

.
13 14) (Gross cost of
financial debt) (Net cost of
financial debt)
, ,

, . ,
.
.

(),
. , , ,

?! ,
.

.
15 16) (Other financial revenue)
(Other financial expenses)
(15) (16) ,

786

, .

.
:

1

- - -

/

,

,
)

)
)

1, ,
, 0
. 1
, 1
.
17) (Profit before taxes)

, ,

, .

,
. ,
,
.
787

,
.
18 19) (Income taxes)
(Share of net profit of associates)


. ,
: .
.

, . ,
,
.
.
, .
,
, ,
.
,

.
, ,
IFRS.
:

/


:
/


,

788


,
.
,
.
, .
:
1

)

) ,

)

) ,

)

)

)
()
)

)
:
:

-
%
%
%

-
%
%
%

,
.

IFRS.

789

,
.
,

.
20) (Net profit from
continuing operations)

.
()

.

.

(21).
21) + (NPFAHFS)
+ ,
+
(: Net profit from assets held for sale
and discontinued operations).
, ,
, ,
. ,

, ,
,
. ,
,
, ,
- IFRS III
Business combinations -.
( ) , ,
. ,

790

,
,
.
22) (Profit for the year)

( ) (21),
.
23 24) (attributable to minority interests)
/ (attributable to owners of the parent /
majority interests)

.

. ,
:
, .
()
,
. , ,

,
100% .
,
,
.
,
,
,
.

,
.
25 26) EPOS
, EPOS Earnings per share (from continuing operations
attributable to owners of the parent) () (
,
). EPOS EPOS.
791



.
EPOS S2
(228) .
,
, , , ,
.

, ,
,
,
. ,
,
, , .
EPOS (S2) (228) CpNOA
( ),
,
(, ,
) CpNOAd. CpNOAd
(228) CpNOA
EPOS.
EPOS
.
,
EPOS
(22), ,

. ,
.

()
((Consolidated) statement of comprehensive income)


,
.
, ?!

792

,

.
,
, ,
, ,
,
.
:
1


( )


) ,

)
)





:

:

)
)

,

.

793

.
,
, .

.

,
,
.
, ,
,
, EPOS
.
,
EPOS,
, EPOS,
, EPOS
, .
.
()
((Consolidated) statement of cash flows)

,
: , .

: ;
; ,
.
,
. ,
, ,
?!
,

.
,
, , ,
794

,
.

, ,
. .

.
,
,
.
,
, .
.
. ,

(),
795


( ),
.
, , , ,
1, 2, 3, 4, ,
.
,

. ,
,
1 8.
1 (Share in
earnings in associates).
2 (Dividends received).
3 (Net cost of financial debt).
4 (Current and deferred taxes).
5 / ,
(
) (Net increase/decrease in depreciation, amortization and provisions
(other than on current assets)).
6 ,
(Profit and expenses on share-based payment plans)
7 / (
) (Other non-cash and nonoperating items).
O8 ,
- (Capital gains/losses net of tax and negative goodwill).

, .
(1 8)

(Cash flow from operations before net cost of financial debt and
tax).
(Income taxes paid), 1;
(Interests paid), 2;
,
(Other financial items), 3.
796



(Cash flow from operations after net cost of financial debt and tax).

(Changes in
working capital), 1; ,
(Changes in items relating to credit activities),
2. ,
/

()
(Net cash (flow) generated/used by operating activities).
,
.

,
.
.
,
,
. -, , -,
, .

,
(1 7).
1 ,
,
(Acquisition of property, plant and equipment, intangible assets and investment
property).
2
,

(Proceeds of property, plant and equipment,


intangible assets and investment property).
3
, ,
(
(Equity method), )
(Acquisition of shares in non-consolidated companies, including associates
accounted for by the equity method).
797

4
, ,
(
(Equity method)) (Proceeds of shares in nonconsolidated companies, including associates accounted for by the equity
method).
5
(Acquisition of subsidiaries net of cash
acquired), -,
.
6
(Sales of subsidiaries net of cash acquired),
-,
.
7 (Dividends received) (
,
, )
8
(Changes in loans and advances granted).

.
1 8

,
/

(Net cash (flow) generated/used in investing


activities).

,

: .

1 4.
1 ,

(Sums received from shareholders on capital increases).
1
(paid by the shareholders of the parent company);

798

1 (paid on exercise of stock options);


( ) (paid by
minority shareholders of consolidated companies).
2 , /
(Purchases and sales of treasury
shares). , ,
,
.
3 ,
(Dividends paid during the financial year).


.
4 ,
(Debt proceeds). -,
, , -,
,
.
1 4
, /
(Net cash (flow) generated/used in financing activities).
, ,
( )
: , .

().

,
( ) (Net increase in cash and cash
equivalents).
1

,

. (Share option).

799


?! -, ,
!
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,

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.
,
.
,

.
.
, , !
.
,
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!
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,
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,
.
.
()
((Consolidated) statement of changes in equity)
,
, , .
,
.
800

.
:
: ()

-
;

0 (.)



:

0 (.)
1 (.)



:

1 (.)

801

.
.
.
. ,
.

- .
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; 1 (.)
; 1 (.)
.
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).
- :

;

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.
- ,
- : , - :
.

.
2
( ).
, ,
,
, .
,
,
.

802

GAAP Generally Accepted Accounting Principles




(GAAP) .
, .
, .
2009 . ,
, . 2007
,
, 2010/2011 .

. , 2010
,
.
(FAS/SFFAS
) ,
.
,
,
.
,
FAS.
, ,
,
.
, ,

, , , .
, ,
.
,
.
.

, .
FASB
Financial Accounting Standards Board
803

(). 1973
, .
FASB
(),
AICPA, ,
,
. FASB
AICPA.
, IASB, ,
,



. ,
.
2015
,

IASB
,
. , ,
,
.

,
AICPA,

.

. , ,
,

,
(IFRS).

,
CPA (AICPA)1

CPA Certified Public Accountants institute; AICPA American Institute of Certified Public
Accountants ,
.

804

, 1, 2, 3
,
, ,
; , ,
.
, ,
, ,
,
. ,
(

).

.
,
5 7 , .

,
.
.
,

.
(Balance sheet):
17
CFR, 210. 5-02
. ,
:
(Balance sheet)
(Current Assets)
5-02.1 4: (Cash and cash items)
5-02.2: (Marketable securities)
1

- General Electric Company


IFAC, .
3
ICAEW Institute of Chartered Accountants England and Wales
.
4
, . , 5-02.19
17 CFR, 210, 5-02, 19
.
2

805

5-02.3: (Accounts and


notes receivable)
5-02.4: (Allowances for
doubtful accounts and notes receivable)
5-02.5: 1 (Unearned income)
5-02.6: (Inventories)
5-02.7: 2 (Prepaid expenses)
5-02.8: (Other current assets)
5-02.9: : (Total current assets)
(Noncurrent assets) 3
5-02.12: (Other investments)
5-02.13: (Property, plant and equipment)
5-02.14: 4 (Accumulated depreciation)
5-02.15: (Intangible assets)
5-02.16: (Amortization of intangible
assets)
5-02.17: (Other assets)
5-02.18: : (Total assets)
(Current liabilities)
5-02.19: (Accounts and notes
payable)
5-02.20: (Other current liabilities)
5-02.21: : (Total current liabilities)
(Noncurrent liabilities)
5-02.22: ,
(Bonds, mortgages and other long-term debt)
5-02.24: (Other liabilities)
5-02.25:
(Commitments and contingent liabilities)
/ (Stockholders' equity)
5-02.27: //
1

, . ,
: ,
, ,
, .
2
.
3
- .
17 CFR , - .
4

,
.

806

(Redeemable preferred stocks)


5-02.28: //
(Non-redeemable preferred stocks)
5-02.29: (Common stocks)
5-02.30: (Other stockholders' equity)
5-02.31: (Noncontrolling interests)
5-02.32: : (Total liabilities and equity)
,
. 2 ,
2 ,
3 . ,

.
, ,
,
, .
, .
,
. 2009
(SFAS #168).
, , ,
SFFAS1. ,
.
:
.
1)
- (Intangible assets)
,
.
,
. ,
-, FAS 142 Goodwill and other intangible
assets - .

:
1

SFFAS Statement of Federal Financial Accounting Standards


(). , ,
(Executive Office of the US President)
(US Office of Management and Budget).

807


.
:
(
)
( ).

(
). ,
, ,
, ,
.
.


,
,
, ,

1
,

,
, ,

1

(capitalization) .
, ,
(/ )
(
( ,

)); , , , .
: ,
, (
/). , ( ,
),

.
,
, SOP 98-1 Accounting for the costs of computer software developed or
obtained for internal use , ,
. ,

, SOP 98-1.

808

, 1. ,
. (IAS 38),
(FAS 142)
.
,
, ,
,
. FAS
86 Accounting for the computer software to be sold, leased or otherwise marketed
,
.
:
.
,
.

, ,
:
.
,
2.
, -,
-, ,
IAS 38: Intangible assets
.
2) (Property, Plant and Equipment)
,
(,
, b SFFAS VI Accounting for
property, plant end equipment ):
1) ;
2)
;
1

, ,
, .
2


:


.
,

, .

809

3)
, .

,
( );

.
, , ,
(
) ,
()
.
, , ,
(% 100%,
, 100%
/ ,
/).

,
:
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,

);
;
.

2001 ( 2002 ).
SFAS #144.
. SFAS #144,
: ,
/ . , SFAS #144
:
,
( ,
,
,
810

, ) /
FAS 144/.

, ,
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.
,
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,
,
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,
:
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.
,

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811

1)

. ,


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:
.

.

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,
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2)
.
:

.
,
, .
,
,
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.
,

.
.
, 2011/2012 -

.
3)
-
(Good-will)

812

FAS 141 , -.
, -
, -: .
ASC 350-20-35-1, -
. , - ,
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:
1) (
, ), . -
,
- . .
2) -
- . -
-,
-.
- () ,
, - , .
, -
. , , -
IAS 36 Impairment of assets .
- ,
. , reporting unit ,
.
- -,
. , -
Cash Generating Unit CGU -,
, -
.
, -
, . , ,
,
(Equity method), -,

813

, ,
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,
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- .
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;

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.
-
-. -
-,
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- . , , -
, IAS 36
- . -,
- -
-.
, -.
, - -
.
4)


SFAS 133 Accounting for derivative instruments and hedging
activities .
,
,
,
.
.
ED

814

162-B,
.

.
.
, ED 162-B
(
).

, , .
, ,
, .
5) (Cash and cash equivalents)
,
, ,
. SFFAS I, 27 a c,
,
;
,
.

.
1) .
,
.
2) .

. ,

.

.
6) (Marketable securities)

.
3
815

, ,

.
7) (Accounts
and notes receivable)
,
, .
,
:
(Allowances for doubtful accounts and notes receivable).

.
,
,

,
.
.
,
. , ,
, ( ,
) ,
.

.
8) (Inventories)
4 ARB
43 Inventory Pricing .
, -
. 4 ARB 43
IAS 2, .
, , ,
,
,
.

816

, ,
.
, , .
,
, ,

.
:
, ( ). ,
, ,
- , ,
, .
:
, ;
,
, .
9)

(Unearned income).
:
, ,
, ,
.
(Prepaid expenses),
, .
.
10)

(Other investments),


.

(Accumulated depreciation),

817


.
,
.
.
11) (Noncurrent liabilities)
, ,
(Bonds, mortgages and other long-term debt)
, ;
, ; .

.
12) (Current liabilities)
(Accounts and notes
payable)
, , .

.
, ,
.
13) / (Stockholders' equity)
,
.
,
.
, ,
,
,
.
,
.

.

. ,
, . ,

818

,
.

.
FASB: SFAS 160 2007 (
2008 ), ARB 51 1959 .
17 CFR, 210, 5-03
Income statement .

(Income Statement)
1) (Net sales = Revenues)
2) (Cost of sales = Costs and expenses)
3) = (Gross profit)
4) , (Selling, general and
administrative (SG&A) expenses)
5) (Provisions for doubtful accounts)
6) + (Non-operating income)
7) +/ (Interest income and
interest expense)
8) (Non-operating expenses)
9) = (Income before income taxes)
10) (Income taxes)
11) + (Net earnings on equity
investments)
12) = (Income from continuing operations =
EAT Earnings After Taxes)
13) + (Discontinued operations)
14) = (Income before
extraordinary items)
15) +/
(Extraordinary items, net of income tax)
16) = (Net income)
17) %% (Net income attributable to the noncontrolling interest)
18) %% (Net income attributable to the
controlling interest = (Consolidated) // comprehensive
income attributable to the parent)
819

19) EPOS (Earnings per share (Basic EPS and Diluted


EPS))
, .

.
, , - ,
, .
.
(
).
,
, ,
, ,
,
.


(
), .

,
.


, .
,
.
EPOS
( ). ,
.
. ,
, ,
.

.
, , ,
( )
820

,
. , ,
.
,
,
, ,
,

.
, .
,
, , .

(Cost of goods sold) (Cost of services
sold).

, (
),
.
,

.

, ,
.

.
(,
).

,
.
.

.
. ,
, ,
821


, .
,
. ,
. ,
, , .
,
, ( 2008 ) ,
.

.
.
,
EBITDA, EBIT, EAT,
, .
,
.
.

(Statement of cash flows)



SFAS 95 Statement of cash flows ,
1987 , SFAS 102 Exemption of Certain
Enterprises and Classification of Cash Flows from Certain Securities Acquired for
Resale
, ,
.
,
:
, .

, , (
).
,

.
822

/ /
(Operating Activities)
*
1. (Cash received from sale of goods or
services)
2. , (Cash paid to suppliers and
employees)
3. (Receipt of dividends)
4. (Receipt of interests)
5. (Payment of interests)
6. ( )
(Receipt of insurance proceeds)
7. (Income tax paid)
(Investing Activities)
1. (Acquisition
of debt instruments of other entities)
2. (Sale of debt
instruments of other entities)
3. (, )
(Acquisition of equity instruments of other entities)
4. (Sale of
equity instruments of other entities)
5. (Acquisition of property, plant and
equipment)
6. (Sale of property, plant and equipment)
7. (Capital expenditures) 1
8. (Payment for purchase
of another entity)
(Financing Activities)
1. (, ,
) (Issuance of equity instruments)
2. (Payment of dividends)
3. (Repurchase of equity instruments)
1

(CAPEX) ,
, . CAPEX
, .

823

4. 1 (Proceeds from
short-term borrowings)
5. (Repayment of short-term
borrowings)
6.
(Proceeds from issuance of bonds and other long-term
borrowings)
7. (Repayment of
bonds and other long-term borrowings)
*) ( , )
: (Net cash flow)

,
2:
( ) .
.
, ,
.
:
1) : , ,
.
2) :
. ,
.
3) : ()
. , ,
.
, ,
.
4) : . , ,
- .

.
1

,
, , , ,
, , .

.

824

5) : .
,
.
.
6) : . ,
.

.

. , ,

Wall-Mart.

.
*) (Net income)
*) /
(Income/loss from discontinued operations, net of tax)
1) (Income from continuing operations)
**) ,
(Adjustments to reconcile income from continuing operations):
) (Amortization and depreciation)
) (Deferred income taxes)
) (Other operating activities)
**) ,
:
) ( )
(Accounts receivable)
) ( ) (Inventories)
) ( )
(Accounts payable)
) ( )
(Accrued liabilities)
: ,

+ ,

= :
825


.

. , :
(Statement of shareholders equity)

-1

826

: 1 ,
( ).
,

827

2-
, 3- ,
.
,
,
. .
0 . 1
. ,
, . ,

,
.
.

.

,
.
, , ,
,
, .
, , . ,
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.
, ,
!
!
,
,
.

828

1

.................................................................................... 13
I.
.................. 31
........................................................................................................... 36
I) - . ................ 42
1) - (
.. ) ................. 42
2) -
:
.................................................................................................... 46
................................................................................ 47
56
- ................... 64

......................................................................................................................................... 66
................................ 67

............................................................................................... 70
1)
................................................................ 75
2)
.......................................... 75
- ................................. 80
1) ........................................ 80
2) : ..................... 82
2.1)
....................................................................................... 82
2.2)
...................................................................................................................... 84
....... 87
............. 91

829

1) .................................................................................. 95
2) .............................................................................. 96
3) ( ) ............................. 97
................................................................................................................... 103
........................................................... 104
.................................................................................... 110
1) : .... 111
2) .... 115
3) ............................... 137
4) ...................................... 139
................................................. 144
5)
................................................................................................................................ 146

....................................................................................................................... 147
,
.
, ,
.................................................................... 156
I) ....................................... 156
II) ............................................. 159
III) ....................................... 162
...................... 163
......................................................................... 164
: Wait-if
....................................................................................................................................... 170
- .................................................... 179
1) ......... 181
2) ........................ 184
. ....................... 186
-.................................... 191
1) .................................................................. 191
2) ......................................................... 195
................... 195
......................... 208

830

1) ......................................................................................... 214
2) ................................................................................................ 217
4) ...................................................................................................... 232
................................................ 233
( ). ...................................... 236
- ( ) ................. 237
( ) ............................................. 238
.................................................................................. 242
..................................................... 242
.................................... 244
/ ........... 246
................................................................................................. 247
................................ 250
............... 257

................................................................................................................. 260
................... 264

. .............. 271
....... 272
VaR 3x9; .................................................................... 274
; .................................... 277
........................................... 279
5) EVA ....................................................................................... 279
6) ................................................................................................. 281
7) ......................................................................................... 283
8) .............................................................................................. 285
9) ,
- .............................. 287
10)
.................................................................................................................. 288

831

............. 290

, 1963 ........................................................................................................ 294
............................ 296
1)

1968. ......................................................................................... 297

2)

1972. ......................................................................................... 297

: ,
, , : ...................................................................... 298
3) 1983 -: ............................... 299
............................................................................ 300
, 1984........................................................................ 301

() ..................................... 304
........................................... 305

() ,
......................................... 306
- , , 2008/2009 ............................ 308
: .................................................................................................... 311
...... 313
......................................................................................... 314
, 2002, 2007, 2009 .................................... 315
I) Z -........................................................ 317
II) Z(B) (, , 1979.) .......................................................................................................................... 319
III) - (OV) -.......................................... 321
IV) (1985, ) - ......... 324
V) - (1988, ) ........................................................ 328
VI) - (1990, 2009., ) .................................... 331
VII) , ...................................................... 333

. . ................................................................. 333
. ---, , 2009/2010:
........................................................ 337

832

, , 2009/2010 ............................................................................ 350


2009/2010 ........................... 352
.................................................... 354
: ......... 361
.......................................... 367
............................................. 374
-
........................................................................... 380
II. - ................................. 383
....................................... 383

2000 2010 ..................................................................... 386

2003-2010. .................................................... 387
: ............................. 391
.............. 394
......................... 395
....................... 404

........................................................................................................................ 405
()...................................................... 409
.......................... 411
........................ 412
- ............ 419
-
................................................................................... 422
,
................................................................................................. 425

................................................................................... 436

, 2009 2010 (. .) ...................... 436
, . . ...................................... 438
, . . ...................................... 439

833

.................................................... 440
, % .......................................... 441
, ........................................... 442
................................................................... 443

( , .) ..................................................................... 444

2009-2010. (%, ). ................................... 446
1 . . 447
....................................... 448
2
. ..................................................................................................................... 449
3
. ................................................................................................. 450
4
......................................................................................................................... 452
5
. ............................................................................. 453
6
. ............................................................................................................. 455
7
......................................................................................................................... 456
8
. ......................................................................................................................... 457
9
. ......................................................................................................................... 457
10 . .... 459
11
......................................................................................................................... 460
12

......................................................................................................................... 460
13
, . .......................................................................... 461
14
, . .......................................................................... 462
15
( ), . ........................................... 462

834

16
. .............................................................................................................. 463
17 . .............................. 464
18 () . . 465
19 . ..... 466
20
. .................................................................................................. 466
21
. ....................................................................................... 467
: ,
............................................................................... 470
22
() , 2009/2010 ....................................... 471
23 ,
, 2009/2010
....................................................................................................................................... 472
24 .
....................................................................................................................................... 473
27 30
--- (27),
(28), (29
, 30 ),
. .............................................. 474
......... 475
................................................................................................. 476
..... 479
............................................................................................ 480
: ............................................................................................ 482
: .............................................................. 483
: ............................................................................................... 485
: ........................................................................................ 488
: ......................................................................................... 500
; ...... 502
(MacD) ........................... 502
(MicD) ..................................................... 511
.................................................................... 522

835

............................................. 523

. .................................................. 530
...................................... 533
- .
..................................................................................... 535
1:
................................................................................................ 535
2: -
..................................................... 537
3:
.................................................................................................................. 538
4: .................. 540
5:
................................................................................................ 542
6: .................................................................. 542
7: ......................................................................... 545
8: ............................................................................... 546
(
). ................................................................................................................ 552

, , : . 554
II) -: ..................................................... 564
- .................................................................................................. 586
:
.................................................................................... 606
,
: - ................................ 616
,
- .............................................................................. 618
: ,
.............. 665

( ): ,
, ;
............. 678

836




( ):
.................................................................................................................. 686
- ..................................... 695
,
.................................................................. 703
III.
IFRS () (GAAP) ........................................................................ 705
IFRS IAS ? .............................................. 705
() ((Consolidated)
statement of financial position) .......................................................................................... 707
I) ................................................................................................... 707
1) (Property, plant and equipment) ................................................. 707
2) (Intangible assets) .............................................................. 717
3) - ? ?! ..................... 721
1)

- -............... 722

2)

- .................................................................. 725

3)

- ......................................................... 726

4)

-......................................................... 726

5)

- PR-.................................................................. 730

- : .............. 736
4) (Investment property) ............................................. 737
5) (investments in associates) ............................... 742
6) (customer loans credit activities)
.............................................................................................................. 747
7) (derivative financial instruments (noncurrent)) ,
: IAS 39 ................ 749
8) .................................................................................. 757
( )....................................................... 757
................................................................ 758
II) ........................................................................................................ 758
1)

(Inventories) ................................................................................................ 758

837

2) (Customer loans credit activities and trade


receivable) ...................................................................................................................... 760
3)

(current/deferred tax assets) ............................... 761

4)

(Cash and cash equivalents) ............................... 762

5)

..................................................................................... 762

)
(derivative financial instruments
(current)) ........................................................................................................................ 762
) (other current receivables) ................ 763
) , (assets classified as
held for sale) ................................................................................................................... 763
III) (equity)...................................................................................... 764
1)

() (Share capital) .................................................. 764

2)

(Share premiums) .................................................................. 765

3) (Reserves and net/retained


income) ........................................................................................................................... 765
4)

(Minority interests) ................................... 766

5)

(Reappraisal fund) ................................... 766

IV) (Non-current liabilities) ........................................... 766


1)

(Provisions) ...................................................... 766

.................................................. 767
2) (Borrowings and other financial
liabilities) ........................................................................................................................ 767
3) (Noncurrent derivative financial instruments) ......................................................................... 770
4) , (Debt
financing the credit activity) ............................................................................................ 770
5) (Non-current deferred tax
liabilities) ........................................................................................................................ 771
IFRS..................... 773

IFRS ................................................................................................... 774
V) (Current liabilities) ................................................ 775
1)

(Provisions) ..................................................... 775

2) (Borrowings and other


financial liabilities).......................................................................................................... 775

838

3)
(Current derivative financial instruments) ...................................................................... 775
4) (Current deferred tax
liabilities) ........................................................................................................................ 776
5)

(Trade payable) ...................................................... 776

6) ,
(Liabilities classified as held for sale) .............................................................. 776
7)

(Other current liabilities) .......................... 777

()
((Consolidated) income statement) .................................................................................... 777
1)

(Revenue) .................................................................................................. 779

2) (Cost of sales) ..................................................................................... 782


3)

(Gross profit)............................................................................... 783

5)

(External expenses) ................................................ 783

6)

, (Amortization, Depreciation and provisions) .......... 783

....................................................... 784
7 8) (Other recurring operating profit and
expenses) ........................................................................................................................ 784
9) (Operating profit from continuing
operations) ..................................................................................................................... 785
10) (Other operating profit and expenses) .. 785
11) (Operating profit) .............................................................. 785
12) () (Revenue from cash and cash
equivalents) .................................................................................................................... 786
13 14) (Gross cost of financial debt)
(Net cost of financial debt) ............................................. 786
15 16) (Other financial revenue)
(Other financial expenses) .............................................................................. 786

..................................................................... 787
17) (Profit before taxes)................................................ 787
18 19) (Income taxes)
(Share of net profit of associates) .................................................................................... 788
................................................. 788
............................................................ 789

839

20)
(Net profit from continuing
operations) ..................................................................................................................... 790
21) + (NPFAHFS) ............................................................................................ 790
22) (Profit for the year).......................................................................... 791
23 24) (attributable to minority interests) /
(attributable to owners of the parent / majority interests) ..... 791
25 26) EPOS .................................................................................................................. 791
() ((Consolidated) statement
of comprehensive income) .................................................................................................. 792
......................................... 793
() ((Consolidated) statement of
cash flows) ................................................................................ 794

........................................................................................................... 795
() ((Consolidated)
statement of changes in equity) .......................................................................................... 800
GAAP Generally Accepted Accounting Principles
803
(Balance sheet): .................................... 805
1)

- (Intangible assets) ............................... 807

2)

............................................................................ 812

3)

- (Good-will) ...... 812

4) ................ 814
5) (Cash and cash equivalents) ........................... 815
6) (Marketable securities)................................ 815
7)
(Accounts and notes
receivable) ...................................................................................................................... 816
8) (Inventories) ................................................................................................... 816
9) ........................................................................................ 817
10) ................................................................................. 817
11) (Noncurrent liabilities) ........................................ 818
12) (Current liabilities)............................................. 818
13) / (Stockholders' equity) .................................... 818
(Income Statement) ............................................... 819
(Statement of cash flows) ........................ 822

840

/ / (Operating Activities)..................... 823


(Investing Activities) ..................................................... 823
(Financing Activities) ............................................................ 823
. ............................................... 824
(Statement of shareholders equity) ................ 826
....................................................................................................................... 829

841