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  • Ratio To Moving Average Method

    Загружено:

    अनिल चौहान
    55 просмотров2 страницы
    Ratio to Moving Average Method Ratio-To-Moving-Average Method (multiplicative form) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2002 318 380 358 423 2003 379 394 412 439 2004 413 458 492 493 2005 461 468 529 575 2006 441 548 561 620 t yt moving centered specific normalized deseasonalized average moving average seasonals seasonals series 1 318 * * * 0.92429 344.048 2 380 * * * 0.98703 384.993 3 358 369.75 377.375 0.94866 1.01420 352.988 4 423 385.00 386.750 1.09373 1.07445 393.690 5 379 388.50 395.250 0.95889 0.92429 410.044 6 394 402.00 404.000 0.97525 0.98703 399.177 7 412 406.00 410.250 1.00427 1.01420 406.232 8 439 414.50 422.500 1.03905 1.07445 408.581 9 413 430.50 440.500 0.93757 0.92429 446.829 10 458 450.50 457.250 1.00164 0.98703 464.018 11 492 464.00 470.000 1.04681 1.01420 485.111 12 493 476.00 477.250 1.03300 1.07445 458.839 13 461 478.50 483.125 0.95420 0.92429 498.761 14 468 487.75 498.000 0.93976 0.98703 474.150 15 529 508.25 505.750 1.04597 1.01420 521.593 16 575 503.25 513.250 1.12031 1.07445 535.158 17 441 523.25 527.250 0.83642 0.92429 477.123 18 548 531.25 536.875 1.02072 0.98703 555.201 19 561 542.50 * * 1.01420 553.145 20 620 * * * 1.07445 577.039 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 0.94866 1.09373 0.95889 0.97525 1.00427 1.03905 0.93757 1.00164 1.04681 1.03300 0.95420 0.93976 1.04597 1.12031 0.83642 1.02072 1.01143 1.07152 0.92177 0.98434  mean = 0.99727 normalized  1.01420 1.07445 0.92429 0.98703 Regression of deseasonalized series on t (t = 1,2,3,..., 20): Tt = 339.983 + 11.1765t Forecasts for periods 21 through 24: y21 = [339.983 + 11.1765 (21)](0.92429) = 531.2 y22 = [339.983 + 11.1765 (22)](0.98703) = 578.3 y23 = [339.983 + 11.1765 (23)](1.01420) = 605.5 y24 = [339.983 + 11.1765 (24)](1.07445) = 653.5 qwertyuioppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

    Оригинальное название

    Ratio to Moving Average Method

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    Ratio to Moving Average Method Ratio-To-Moving-Average Method (multiplicative form) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2002 318 380 358 423 2003 379 394 412 439 2004 413 458 492 493 2005 461 468 529 575 2006 441 548 561 620 t yt moving centered specific normalized deseasonalized average moving average seasonals seasonals series 1 318 * * * 0.92429 344.048 2 380 * * * 0.98703 384.993 3 358 369.75 377.375 0.94866 1.01420 352.988 4 423 385.00 386.750 1.09373 1.07445 393.690 5 379 388.50 395.250 0.95889 0.92429 410.044 6 394 402.00 404.000 0.97525 0.98703 399.177 7 412 406.00 410.250 1.00427 1.01420 406.232 8 439 414.50 422.500 1.03905 1.07445 408.581 9 413 430.50 440.500 0.93757 0.92429 446.829 10 458 450.50 457.250 1.00164 0.98703 464.018 11 492 464.00 470.000 1.04681 1.01420 485.111 12 493 476.00 477.250 1.03300 1.07445 458.839 13 461 478.50 483.125 0.95420 0.92429 498.761 14 468 487.75 498.000 0.93976 0.98703 474.150 15 529 508.25 505.750 1.04597 1.01420 521.593 16 575 503.25 513.250 1.12031 1.07445 535.158 17 441 523.25 527.250 0.83642 0.92429 477.123 18 548 531.25 536.875 1.02072 0.98703 555.201 19 561 542.50 * * 1.01420 553.145 20 620 * * * 1.07445 577.039 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 0.94866 1.09373 0.95889 0.97525 1.00427 1.03905 0.93757 1.00164 1.04681 1.03300 0.95420 0.93976 1.04597 1.12031 0.83642 1.02072 1.01143 1.07152 0.92177 0.98434  mean = 0.99727 normalized  1.01420 1.07445 0.92429 0.98703 Regression of deseasonalized series on t (t = 1,2,3,..., 20): Tt = 339.983 + 11.1765t Forecasts for periods 21 through 24: y21 = [339.983 + 11.1765 (21)](0.92429) = 531.2 y22 = [339.983 + 11.1765 (22)](0.98703) = 578.3 y23 = [339.983 + 11.1765 (23)](1.01420) = 605.5 y24 = [339.983 + 11.1765 (24)](1.07445) = 653.5 qwertyuioppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

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    55 просмотров2 страницы

    Ratio To Moving Average Method

    Загружено:

    अनिल चौहान
    Ratio to Moving Average Method Ratio-To-Moving-Average Method (multiplicative form) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2002 318 380 358 423 2003 379 394 412 439 2004 413 458 492 493 2005 461 468 529 575 2006 441 548 561 620 t yt moving centered specific normalized deseasonalized average moving average seasonals seasonals series 1 318 * * * 0.92429 344.048 2 380 * * * 0.98703 384.993 3 358 369.75 377.375 0.94866 1.01420 352.988 4 423 385.00 386.750 1.09373 1.07445 393.690 5 379 388.50 395.250 0.95889 0.92429 410.044 6 394 402.00 404.000 0.97525 0.98703 399.177 7 412 406.00 410.250 1.00427 1.01420 406.232 8 439 414.50 422.500 1.03905 1.07445 408.581 9 413 430.50 440.500 0.93757 0.92429 446.829 10 458 450.50 457.250 1.00164 0.98703 464.018 11 492 464.00 470.000 1.04681 1.01420 485.111 12 493 476.00 477.250 1.03300 1.07445 458.839 13 461 478.50 483.125 0.95420 0.92429 498.761 14 468 487.75 498.000 0.93976 0.98703 474.150 15 529 508.25 505.750 1.04597 1.01420 521.593 16 575 503.25 513.250 1.12031 1.07445 535.158 17 441 523.25 527.250 0.83642 0.92429 477.123 18 548 531.25 536.875 1.02072 0.98703 555.201 19 561 542.50 * * 1.01420 553.145 20 620 * * * 1.07445 577.039 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 0.94866 1.09373 0.95889 0.97525 1.00427 1.03905 0.93757 1.00164 1.04681 1.03300 0.95420 0.93976 1.04597 1.12031 0.83642 1.02072 1.01143 1.07152 0.92177 0.98434  mean = 0.99727 normalized  1.01420 1.07445 0.92429 0.98703 Regression of deseasonalized series on t (t = 1,2,3,..., 20): Tt = 339.983 + 11.1765t Forecasts for periods 21 through 24: y21 = [339.983 + 11.1765 (21)](0.92429) = 531.2 y22 = [339.983 + 11.1765 (22)](0.98703) = 578.3 y23 = [339.983 + 11.1765 (23)](1.01420) = 605.5 y24 = [339.983 + 11.1765 (24)](1.07445) = 653.5 qwertyuioppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppppoooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooo

    Авторское право:

    Attribution Non-Commercial (BY-NC)
    Скачайте в формате DOC, PDF, TXT или читайте онлайн в Scribd
    Отметить как неприемлемый контент
    из 2

    Ratio-To-Moving-Average Method (multiplicative form)

    2002
    2003
    2004
    2005
    2006
    t

    yt

    1
    2
    3
    4
    5
    6
    7
    8
    9
    10
    11
    12
    13
    14
    15
    16
    17
    18
    19
    20

    318
    380
    358
    423
    379
    394
    412
    439
    413
    458
    492
    493
    461
    468
    529
    575
    441
    548
    561
    620

    normalized

    Q1

    Q2

    Q3

    Q4

    318
    379
    413
    461
    441

    380
    394
    458
    468
    548

    358
    412
    492
    529
    561

    423
    439
    493
    575
    620

    moving
    average
    *
    *
    369.75
    385.00
    388.50
    402.00
    406.00
    414.50
    430.50
    450.50
    464.00
    476.00
    478.50
    487.75
    508.25
    503.25
    523.25
    531.25
    542.50
    *

    Q3
    0.94866
    1.00427
    1.04681
    1.04597
    1.01143
    1.01420

    centered
    specific
    moving average seasonals
    *
    *
    *
    *
    377.375
    0.94866
    386.750
    1.09373
    395.250
    0.95889
    404.000
    0.97525
    410.250
    1.00427
    422.500
    1.03905
    440.500
    0.93757
    457.250
    1.00164
    470.000
    1.04681
    477.250
    1.03300
    483.125
    0.95420
    498.000
    0.93976
    505.750
    1.04597
    513.250
    1.12031
    527.250
    0.83642
    536.875
    1.02072
    *
    *
    *
    *

    Q4
    1.09373
    1.03905
    1.03300
    1.12031
    1.07152
    1.07445

    Q1
    0.95889
    0.93757
    0.95420
    0.83642
    0.92177
    0.92429

    normalized
    seasonals
    0.92429
    0.98703
    1.01420
    1.07445
    0.92429
    0.98703
    1.01420
    1.07445
    0.92429
    0.98703
    1.01420
    1.07445
    0.92429
    0.98703
    1.01420
    1.07445
    0.92429
    0.98703
    1.01420
    1.07445

    Q2
    0.97525
    1.00164
    0.93976
    1.02072
    0.98434
    0.98703

    deseasonalized
    series
    344.048
    384.993
    352.988
    393.690
    410.044
    399.177
    406.232
    408.581
    446.829
    464.018
    485.111
    458.839
    498.761
    474.150
    521.593
    535.158
    477.123
    555.201
    553.145
    577.039

    mean = 0.99727

    Regression of deseasonalized series on t (t = 1,2,3,..., 20):


    Tt = 339.983 + 11.1765t
    Forecasts for periods 21 through 24:
    y21 = [339.983
    y22 = [339.983
    y23 = [339.983
    y24 = [339.983

    + 11.1765 (21)](0.92429)
    + 11.1765 (22)](0.98703)
    + 11.1765 (23)](1.01420)
    + 11.1765 (24)](1.07445)

    =
    =
    =
    =

    531.2
    578.3
    605.5
    653.5

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