The Fine Art of Baloney Detection by Carl Sagan

[Editorial note: This is taken from the book The Demon-Haunted World: Science as a Candle in the Dark.]

M !arents died ears a"o. # $as %er close to them. # still miss them terribl . # kno$ # al$a s $ill. # lon" to belie%e that their essence& their !ersonalities& $hat # lo%ed so much about them& are ' reall and trul ' still in e(istence some$here. # $ouldn)t ask %er much& *ust fi%e or ten minutes a ear& sa & to tell them about their "randchildren& to catch them u! on the latest ne$s& to remind them that # lo%e them. There)s a !art of me ' no matter ho$ childish it sounds ' that $onders ho$ the are. +#s e%er thin" all ri"ht,+ # $ant to ask. The last $ords # found m self sa in" to m father& at the moment of his death& $ere +Take care.+ Sometimes # dream that #)m talkin" to m !arents& and suddenl ' still immersed in the dream$ork ' #)m sei-ed b the o%er!o$erin" reali-ation that the didn)t reall die& that it)s all been some kind of horrible mistake. Wh & here the are& ali%e and $ell& m father makin" $r *okes& m mother earnestl ad%isin" me to $ear a muffler because the $eather is chill . When # $ake u! # "o throu"h an abbre%iated !rocess of mournin" all o%er a"ain. .lainl & there)s somethin" $ithin me that)s read to belie%e in life after death. /nd it)s not the least bit interested in $hether there)s an sober e%idence for it. So # don)t "uffa$ at the $oman $ho %isits her husband)s "ra%e and chats him u! e%er no$ and then& ma be on the anni%ersar of his death. #t)s not hard to understand. /nd if # ha%e difficulties $ith the ontolo"ical status of $ho she)s talkin" to& that)s all ri"ht. That)s not $hat this is about. This is about humans bein" human. More than a third of /merican adults belie%e that on some le%el the )%e made contact $ith the dead. The number seems to ha%e *um!ed b 01 !ercent bet$een 0233 and 0244. / 5uarter of /mericans belie%e in reincarnation. 6ut that doesn)t mean #)d be $illin" to acce!t the !retensions of a +medium&+ $ho claims to channel the s!irits of the dear de!arted& $hen #)m a$are the !ractice is rife $ith fraud. # kno$ ho$ much # $ant to belie%e that m !arents ha%e *ust abandoned the husks of their bodies& like insects or snakes moltin"& and "one some$here else. # understand that those %er feelin"s mi"ht make me eas !re e%en for an uncle%er con& or for normal !eo!le unfamiliar $ith their unconscious minds& or for those sufferin" from a dissociati%e !s chiatric disorder. 7eluctantl & # rouse some reser%es of ske!ticism. Ho$ is it& # ask m self& that channelers ne%er "i%e us %erifiable information other$ise una%ailable, Wh does /le(ander the 8reat ne%er tell us about the e(act location of his tomb& 9ermat about his :ast Theorem& ;ohn Wilkes 6ooth about the :incoln assassination cons!irac & Hermann 8orin" about the 7eichsta" fire, Wh don)t So!hocles& Democritus& and /ristarchus

dictate their lost books, Don)t the $ish future "enerations to ha%e access to their master!ieces, #f some "ood e%idence for life after death $ere announced& #)d be ea"er to e(amine it< but it $ould ha%e to be real scientific data& not mere anecdote. /s $ith the face on Mars and alien abductions& better the hard truth& # sa & than the comfortin" fantas . /nd in the final tollin" it often turns out that the facts are more comfortin" than the fantas . The fundamental !remise of +channelin"&+ s!iritualism& and other forms of necromanc is that $hen $e die $e don)t. =ot e(actl . Some thinkin"& feelin"& and rememberin" !art of us continues. That $hate%er-it-is ' a soul or s!irit& neither matter nor ener" & but somethin" else ' can& $e are told& re-enter the bodies of human and other bein"s in the future& and so death loses much of its stin". What)s more& $e ha%e an o!!ortunit & if the s!iritualist or channelin" contentions are true& to make contact $ith lo%ed ones $ho ha%e died. ;.>. ?ni"ht of the State of Washin"ton claims to be in touch $ith a @1&AAA- ear-old somebod called +7amtha.+ He s!eaks En"lish %er $ell& usin" ?ni"ht)s ton"ue& li!s and %ocal chords& !roducin" $hat sounds to me to be an accent from the #ndian 7a*. Since most !eo!le kno$ ho$ to talk& and man ' from children to !rofessional actors ' ha%e a re!ertoire of %oices at their command& the sim!lest h !othesis is that Ms. ?ni"ht makes +7amtha+ s!eak all b herself& and that she has no contact $ith disembodied entities from the .leistocene #ce /"e. #f there)s e%idence to the contrar & #)d lo%e to hear it. #t $ould be considerabl more im!ressi%e if 7amtha could s!eak b himself& $ithout the assistance of Ms. ?ni"ht)s mouth. 9ailin" that& ho$ mi"ht $e test the claim, BThe actress Shirle Mac:aine attests that 7amtha $as her brother in /tlantis& but that)s another stor .C Su!!ose 7amtha $ere a%ailable for 5uestionin". Could $e %erif $hether he is $ho he sa s he is, Ho$ does he kno$ that he li%ed @1&AAA ears a"o& e%en a!!ro(imatel , What calendar does he em!lo , Who is kee!in" track of the inter%enin" millennia, Thirt -fi%e thousand !lus or minus $hat, What $ere thin"s like @1&AAA ears a"o, Either 7amtha reall is @1&AAA ears old& in $hich case $e disco%er somethin" about that !eriod& or he)s a !hon and he)ll Bor rather she)llC sli! u!. Where did 7amtha li%e, B# kno$ he s!eaks En"lish $ith an #ndian accent& but $here @1&AAA ears a"o did the do that,C What $as the climate, What did 7amtha eat, B/rchaeolo"ists kno$ somethin" about $hat !eo!le ate back then.C What $ere the indi"enous lan"ua"es& and social structure, Who else did 7amtha li%e $ith ' $ife& $i%es& children& "randchildren, What $as the life c cle& the infant mortalit rate& the life e(!ectanc , Did the ha%e birth control, What clothes did the $ear, Ho$ $ere the clothes manufactured, What $ere the most dan"erous !redators, Huntin" and fishin" im!lements and strate"ies, Wea!ons, Endemic se(ism, Deno!hobia and ethnocentrism, /nd if 7amtha came from the +hi"h ci%ili-ation+ of

/tlantis& $here are the lin"uistic& technolo"ical& historical and other details, What $as their $ritin" like, Tell us. #nstead& all $e are offered are banal homilies. Here& to take another e(am!le& is a set of information channeled not from an ancient dead !erson& but from unkno$n non-human entities $ho make cro! circles& as recorded b the *ournalist ;im Schnabel: We are so an(ious at this sinful nation s!readin" lies about us. We do not come in machines& $e do not land on our earth in machines ... We come like the $ind. We are :ife 9orce. :ife 9orce from the "round ... Come here ... We are but a breath a$a ... a breath a$a ... $e are not a million miles a$a ... a :ife 9orce that is lar"er than the ener"ies in our bod . 6ut $e meet at a hi"her le%el of life ... We need no name. We are !arallel to our $orld& alon"side our $orld ... The $alls are broken. T$o men $ill rise from the !ast ... the "reat bear ... the $orld $ill be at !eace. .eo!le !a attention to these !uerile mar%els mainl because the !romise somethin" like old-time reli"ion& but es!eciall life after death& e%en life eternal. / %er different !ros!ect for somethin" like eternal life $as once !ro!osed b the %ersatile 6ritish scientist ;.6.S. Haldane& $ho $as& amon" man other thin"s& one of the founders of !o!ulation "enetics. Haldane ima"ined a far future $hen the stars ha%e darkened and s!ace is mainl filled $ith a cold& thin "as. =e%ertheless& if $e $ait lon" enou"h statistical fluctuations in the densit of this "as $ill occur. E%er immense !eriods of time the fluctuations $ill be sufficient to reconstitute a Fni%erse somethin" like our o$n. #f the Fni%erse is infinitel old& there $ill be an infinite number of such reconstitutions& Haldane !ointed out. So in an infinitel old uni%erse $ith an infinite number of a!!earances of "ala(ies& stars& !lanets& and life& an identical Earth must rea!!ear on $hich ou and all our lo%ed ones $ill be reunited. #)ll be able to see m !arents a"ain and introduce them to the "randchildren the ne%er kne$. /nd all this $ill ha!!en not once& but an infinite number of times. Someho$& thou"h& this does not 5uite offer the consolations of reli"ion. #f none of us is to ha%e an recollection of $hat ha!!ened this time around& the time the reader and # are sharin"& the satisfactions of bodil resurrection& in m ears at least& rin" hollo$. 6ut in this reflection # ha%e underestimated $hat infinit means. #n Haldane)s !icture& there $ill be uni%erses& indeed an infinite number of them& in $hich our brains $ill ha%e full recollection of man !re%ious rounds. Satisfaction is at hand ' tem!ered& thou"h& b the thou"ht of all those other uni%erses $hich $ill also come into e(istence Ba"ain& not once but an infinite number of timesC $ith tra"edies and horrors %astl outstri!!in" an thin" #)%e e(!erienced this turn.

The Consolation of Haldane de!ends& thou"h& on $hat kind of uni%erse $e li%e in& and ma be on such arcana as $hether there)s enou"h matter to e%entuall re%erse the e(!ansion of the uni%erse& and the character of %acuum fluctuations. Those $ith a dee! lon"in" for life after death mi"ht& it seems& de%ote themsel%es to cosmolo" & 5uantum "ra%it & elementar !article !h sics& and transfinite arithmetic. Clement of /le(andria& a 9ather of the earl Church& in his E(hortations to the 8reeks B$ritten around the ear 02AC dismissed !a"an beliefs in $ords that mi"ht toda seem a little ironic: 9ar indeed are $e from allo$in" "ro$n men to listen to such tales. E%en to our o$n children& $hen the are cr in" their heart out& as the sa in" "oes& $e are not in the habit of tellin" fabulous stories to soothe them. #n our time $e ha%e less se%ere standards. We tell children about Santa Claus& the Easter 6unn & and the Tooth 9air for reasons $e think emotionall sound& but then disabuse them of these m ths before the )re "ro$n. Wh retract, 6ecause their $ell-bein" as adults de!ends on them kno$in" the $orld as it reall is. We $orr & and for "ood reason& about adults $ho still belie%e in Santa Claus. En doctrinaire reli"ions& +Men dare not a%o$& e%en to their o$n hearts&+ $rote the !hiloso!her Da%id Hume& the doubts $hich the entertain on such sub*ects. The make a merit of im!licit faith< and dis"uise to themsel%es their real infidelit & b the stron"est asse%erations and the most !ositi%e bi"otr . This infidelit has !rofound moral conse5uences& as the /merican re%olutionar Tom .aine $rote in The /"e of 7eason: #nfidelit does not consist in belie%in"& or in disbelie%in"< it consists in !rofessin" to belie%e $hat one does not belie%e. #t is im!ossible to calculate the moral mischief& if # ma so e(!ress it& that mental l in" has !roduced in societ . When man has so far corru!ted and !rostituted the chastit of his mind& as to subscribe his !rofessional belief to thin"s he does not belie%e& he has !re!ared himself for the commission of e%er other crime. T. H. Hu(le )s formulation $as The foundation of moralit is to ... "i%e u! !retendin" to belie%e that for $hich there is no e%idence& and re!eatin" unintelli"ible !ro!ositions about thin"s be ond the !ossibilities of kno$led"e. Clement& Hume& .aine& and Hu(le $ere all talkin" about reli"ion. 6ut much of $hat the $rote has more "eneral a!!lications ' for e(am!le to the !er%asi%e back"round im!ortunin"s of our commercial ci%ili-ation: There is a class of as!irin commercials in $hich

actors !retendin" to be doctors re%eal the com!etin" !roduct to ha%e onl so much of the !ainkillin" in"redient that doctors recommend most ' the don)t tell ou $hat the m sterious in"redient is. Whereas their !roduct has a dramaticall lar"er amount B0.G to G times more !er tabletC. So bu their !roduct. 6ut $h not *ust take t$o of the com!etin" tablets, Er consider the anal"esic that $orks better than the +re"ular-stren"th+ !roduct of the com!etition. Wh not then take the +e(tra-stren"th+ com!etiti%e !roduct, /nd of course the do not tell us of the more than a thousand deaths each ear in the Fnited States from the use of as!irin& or the rou"hl 1AAA annual cases of kidne failure from the use of acetamino!hen& chiefl T lenol. Er $ho cares $hich breakfast cereal has more %itamins $hen $e can take a %itamin !ill $ith breakfast, :ike$ise& $h should it matter $hether an antacid contains calcium if the calcium is for nutrition and irrele%ant for "astritis, Commercial culture is full of similar misdirections and e%asions at the e(!ense of the consumer. Hou)re not su!!osed to ask. Don)t think. 6u . .aid !roduct endorsements& es!eciall b real or !ur!orted e(!erts& constitute a stead rainfall of dece!tion. The betra contem!t for the intelli"ence of their customers. The introduce an insidious corru!tion of !o!ular attitudes about scientific ob*ecti%it . Toda there are e%en commercials in $hich real scientists& some of considerable distinction& shill for cor!orations. The teach that scientists too $ill lie for mone . /s Tom .aine $arned& inurin" us to lies la s the "round$ork for man other e%ils. # ha%e in front of me as # $rite the !ro"ram of one of the annual Whole :ife E(!os& =e$ /"e e(!ositions held in San 9rancisco. T !icall & tens of thousands of !eo!le attend. Hi"hl 5uestionable e(!erts tout hi"hl 5uestionable !roducts. Here are some of the !resentations: +Ho$ Tra!!ed 6lood .roteins .roduce .ain and Sufferin".+ +Cr stals& /re The Talismans or Stones,+ B# ha%e an o!inion m self.C #t continues: +/s a cr stal focuses sound and li"ht $a%es for radio and tele%ision+ ' this is a %a!id misunderstandin" of ho$ radio and tele%ision $ork ' +so ma it am!lif s!iritual %ibrations for the attuned human.+ Er here)s one +7eturn of the 8oddess& a .resentational 7itual.+ /nother: +S nchronicit & the 7eco"nition E(!erience.+ That one is "i%en b +6rother Charles.+ Er& on the ne(t !a"e& +Hou& Saint-8ermain& and Healin" Throu"h the Iiolet 9lame.+ #t "oes on and on& $ith !lent of ads about +o!!ortunities+ ' runnin" the short "amut from the dubious to the s!urious ' that are a%ailable at the Whole :ife E(!o. Distrau"ht cancer %ictims make !il"rima"es to the .hili!!ines& $here +!s chic sur"eons&+ ha%in" !almed bits of chicken li%er or "oat heart& !retend to reach into the !atient)s innards and $ithdra$ the diseased tissue& $hich is then trium!hantl dis!la ed. :eaders of Western democracies re"ularl consult astrolo"ers and m stics before makin" decisions of state. Fnder !ublic !ressure for results& !olice $ith an unsol%ed murder or a missin" bod on their hands consult ES. +e(!erts+ B$ho ne%er "uess better than e(!ected b common sense& but the !olice& the ES.ers sa & kee! callin"C. / clair%o ance "a! $ith ad%ersar nations is announced&

and the Central #ntelli"ence /"enc & under Con"ressional !roddin"& s!ends ta( mone to find out $hether submarines in the ocean de!ths can be located b thinkin" hard at them. / +!s chic+ ' usin" !endulums o%er ma!s and do$sin" rods in air!lanes ' !ur!orts to find ne$ mineral de!osits< an /ustralian minin" com!an !a s him to! dollar u! front& none of it returnable in the e%ent of failure& and a share in the e(!loitation of ores in the e%ent of success. =othin" is disco%ered. Statues of ;esus or murals of Mar are s!otted $ith moisture& and thousands of kind-hearted !eo!le con%ince themsel%es that the ha%e $itnessed a miracle. These are all cases of !ro%ed or !resum!ti%e balone . / dece!tion arises& sometimes innocentl but collaborati%el & sometimes $ith c nical !remeditation. Fsuall the %ictim is cau"ht u! in a !o$erful emotion ' $onder& fear& "reed& "rief. Credulous acce!tance of balone can cost ou mone < that)s $hat .. T. 6arnum meant $hen he said& +There)s a sucker born e%er minute.+ 6ut it can be much more dan"erous than that& and $hen "o%ernments and societies lose the ca!acit for critical thinkin"& the results can be catastro!hic ' ho$e%er s m!athetic $e ma be to those $ho ha%e bou"ht the balone . #n science $e ma start $ith e(!erimental results& data& obser%ations& measurements& +facts.+ We in%ent& if $e can& a rich arra of !ossible e(!lanations and s stematicall confront each e(!lanation $ith the facts. #n the course of their trainin"& scientists are e5ui!!ed $ith a balone detection kit. The kit is brou"ht out as a matter of course $hene%er ne$ ideas are offered for consideration. #f the ne$ idea sur%i%es e(amination b the tools in our kit& $e "rant it $arm& althou"h tentati%e& acce!tance. #f ou)re so inclined& if ou don)t $ant to bu balone e%en $hen it)s reassurin" to do so& there are !recautions that can be taken< there)s a tried-andtrue& consumer-tested method. What's in the kit? Tools for skeptical thinking. What ske!tical thinkin" boils do$n to is the means to construct& and to understand& a reasoned ar"ument and ' es!eciall im!ortant ' to reco"ni-e a fallacious or fraudulent ar"ument. The 5uestion is not $hether $e like the conclusion that emer"es out of a train of reasonin"& but $hether the conclusion follo$s from the !remise or startin" !oint and $hether that !remise is true. /mon" the tools: Wherever possible there m st be in!epen!ent confirmation of the "facts." Encoura"e substanti%e debate on the e%idence b kno$led"eable !ro!onents of all !oints of %ie$. Arg ments from a thority carry little #eight $ "a thorities" have ma!e mistakes in the past. The $ill do so a"ain in the future. .erha!s a better $a to sa it is that in science there

are no authorities< at most& there are e(!erts. Spin more than one hypothesis. #f there)s somethin" to be e(!lained& think of all the different $a s in $hich it could be e(!lained. Then think of tests b $hich ou mi"ht s stematicall dis!ro%e each of the alternati%es. What sur%i%es& the h !othesis that resists dis!roof in this Dar$inian selection amon" +multi!le $orkin" h !otheses&+ has a much better chance of bein" the ri"ht ans$er than if ou had sim!l run $ith the first idea that cau"ht our fanc .J
J =ETE: This is a !roblem that affects *ur trials. 7etros!ecti%e studies sho$ that some *urors make u! their minds %er earl ' !erha!s durin" o!enin" ar"uments ' and then retain the e%idence that seems to su!!ort their initial im!ressions and re*ect the contrar e%idence. The method of alternati%e $orkin" h !otheses is not runnin" in their heads.

Try not to get overly attache! to a hypothesis % st beca se it's yo rs. #t)s onl a $a station in the !ursuit of kno$led"e. /sk ourself $h ou like the idea. Com!are it fairl $ith the alternati%es. See if ou can find reasons for re*ectin" it. #f ou don)t& others $ill. & antify. #f $hate%er it is ou)re e(!lainin" has some measure& some numerical 5uantit attached to it& ou)ll be much better able to discriminate amon" com!etin" h !otheses. What is %a"ue and 5ualitati%e is o!en to man e(!lanations. Ef course there are truths to be sou"ht in the man 5ualitati%e issues $e are obli"ed to confront& but findin" them is more challen"in". 'f there's a chain of arg ment( every link in the chain m st #ork )incl !ing the premise* $ not % st most of them. +ccam's ,a-or. This con%enient rule-of-thumb ur"es us $hen faced $ith t$o h !otheses that e(!lain the data e5uall $ell to choose the sim!ler. Al#ays ask #hether the hypothesis can be( at least in principle( falsifie!. .ro!ositions that are untestable& unfalsifiable are not $orth much. Consider the "rand idea that our Fni%erse and e%er thin" in it is *ust an elementar !article ' an electron& sa ' in a much bi""er Cosmos. 6ut if $e can ne%er ac5uire information from outside our Fni%erse& is not the idea inca!able of dis!roof, Hou must be able to check assertions out. #n%eterate ske!tics must be "i%en the chance to follo$ our reasonin"& to du!licate our e(!eriments and see if the "et the same result. The reliance on carefull desi"ned and controlled e(!eriments is ke & as # tried to stress earlier. We $ill not learn much from mere contem!lation. #t is tem!tin" to rest content $ith the first candidate e(!lanation $e can think of. Ene is much better than none. 6ut $hat ha!!ens if $e can in%ent se%eral, Ho$ do $e decide amon" them, We don)t. We let e(!eriment do it.

9rancis 6acon !ro%ided the classic reason: Arg mentation cannot s ffice for the !iscovery of ne# #ork( since the s btlety of .at re is greater many times than the s btlety of arg ment. Control e/periments are essential. #f& for e(am!le& a ne$ medicine is alle"ed to cure a disease GA !ercent of the time& $e must make sure that a control !o!ulation& takin" a dumm su"ar !ill $hich as far as the sub*ects kno$ mi"ht be the ne$ dru"& does not also e(!erience s!ontaneous remission of the disease GA !ercent of the time. 0ariables m st be separate!. Su!!ose ou)re seasick& and "i%en both an acu!ressure bracelet and 1A milli"rams of mecli-ine. Hou find the un!leasantness %anishes. What did it ' the bracelet or the !ill, Hou can tell onl if ou take the one $ithout the other& ne(t time ou)re seasick. =o$ ima"ine that ou)re not so dedicated to science as to be $illin" to be seasick. Then ou $on)t se!arate the %ariables. Hou)ll take both remedies a"ain. Hou)%e achie%ed the desired !ractical result< further kno$led"e& ou mi"ht sa & is not $orth the discomfort of attainin" it. Eften the e(!eriment must be done +double-blind&+ so that those ho!in" for a certain findin" are not in the !otentiall com!romisin" !osition of e%aluatin" the results. #n testin" a ne$ medicine& for e(am!le& ou mi"ht $ant the !h sicians $ho determine $hich !atients) s m!toms are relie%ed not to kno$ $hich !atients ha%e been "i%en the ne$ dru". The kno$led"e mi"ht influence their decision& e%en if onl unconsciousl . #nstead the list of those $ho e(!erienced remission of s m!toms can be com!ared $ith the list of those $ho "ot the ne$ dru"& each inde!endentl ascertained. Then ou can determine $hat correlation e(ists. Er in conductin" a !olice lineu! or !hoto identification& the officer in char"e should not kno$ $ho the !rime sus!ect is& so as not consciousl or unconsciousl to influence the $itness. #n addition to teachin" us $hat to do $hen e%aluatin" a claim to kno$led"e& an "ood balone detection kit must also teach us $hat not to do. #t hel!s us reco"ni-e the most common and !erilous fallacies of lo"ic and rhetoric. Man "ood e(am!les can be found in reli"ion and !olitics& because their !ractitioners are so often obli"ed to *ustif t$o contradictor !ro!ositions. /mon" these fallacies are: a! hominem ' :atin for +to the man&+ attackin" the ar"uer and not the ar"ument Be.".& The 7e%erend Dr. Smith is a kno$n 6iblical fundamentalist& so her ob*ections to e%olution need not be taken seriousl C< arg ment from a thority Be.".& .resident 7ichard =i(on should be re-elected because he has a secret !lan to end the $ar in Southeast /sia ' but because it $as secret& there $as no $a for the electorate to e%aluate it on its merits< the ar"ument amounted to trustin" him because

he $as .resident: a mistake& as it turned outC< arg ment from a!verse conse1 ences Be.".& / 8od metin" out !unishment and re$ard must e(ist& because if He didn)t& societ $ould be much more la$less and dan"erous ' !erha!s e%en un"o%ernable.J Er: The defendant in a $idel !ublici-ed murder trial must be found "uilt < other$ise& it $ill be an encoura"ement for other men to murder their $i%esC<
J =ETE: / more c nical formulation b the 7oman historian .ol bius: Since the masses of the !eo!le are inconstant& full of unrul desires& !assionate& and reckless of conse5uences& the must be filled $ith fears to kee! them in order. The ancients did $ell& therefore& to in%ent "ods& and the belief in !unishment after death.

appeal to ignorance ' the claim that $hate%er has not been !ro%ed false must be true& and %ice %ersa Be.".& There is no com!ellin" e%idence that F9Es are not %isitin" the Earth< therefore F9Es e(ist ' and there is intelli"ent life else$here in the Fni%erse. Er: There ma be se%ent ka-illion other $orlds& but not one is kno$n to ha%e the moral ad%ancement of the Earth& so $e)re still central to the Fni%erse.C This im!atience $ith ambi"uit can be critici-ed in the !hrase: absence of e%idence is not e%idence of absence. special plea!ing( often to resc e a proposition in !eep rhetorical tro ble Be.".& Ho$ can a merciful 8od condemn future "enerations to torment because& a"ainst orders& one $oman induced one man to eat an a!!le, S!ecial !lead: ou don)t understand the subtle Doctrine of 9ree Will. Er: Ho$ can there be an e5uall "odlike 9ather& Son& and Hol 8host in the same .erson, S!ecial !lead: Hou don)t understand the Di%ine M ster of the Trinit . Er: Ho$ could 8od !ermit the follo$ers of ;udaism& Christianit & and #slam ' each in their o$n $a en*oined to heroic measures of lo%in" kindness and com!assion ' to ha%e !er!etrated so much cruelt for so lon", S!ecial !lead: Hou don)t understand 9ree Will a"ain. /nd an $a & 8od mo%es in m sterious $a s.C begging the 1 estion( also calle! ass ming the ans#er Be.".& We must institute the death !enalt to discoura"e %iolent crime. 6ut does the %iolent crime rate in fact fall $hen the death !enalt is im!osed, Er: The stock market fell esterda because of a technical ad*ustment and !rofit-takin" b in%estors ' but is there an inde!endent e%idence for the causal role of +ad*ustment+ and !rofit-takin"< ha%e $e learned an thin" at all from this !ur!orted e(!lanation,C< observational selection& also called the enumeration of fa%orable circumstances& or as the !hiloso!her 9rancis 6acon described it& countin" the hits and for"ettin" the missesJ Be.".& / state boasts of the .residents it has !roduced& but is silent on its serial killersC<
J =ETE: M fa%orite e(am!le is this stor & told about the #talian !h sicist Enrico 9ermi& ne$l arri%ed on /merican

shores& enlisted in the Manhattan nuclear $ea!ons .ro*ect& and brou"ht face-to-face in the midst of World War ## $ith F.S. fla" officers: So-and-so is a "reat "eneral& he $as told. What is the definition of a "reat "eneral, 9ermi characteristicall asked. # "uess it)s a "eneral $ho)s $on man consecuti%e battles. Ho$ man , /fter some back and forth& the settled on fi%e. What fraction of /merican "enerals are "reat, /fter some more back and forth& the settled on a fe$ !ercent. 6ut ima"ine& 9ermi re*oined& that there is no such thin" as a "reat "eneral& that all armies are e5uall matched& and that $innin" a battle is !urel a matter of chance. Then the chance of $innin" one battle is one out of t$o& or 0KG& t$o battles 0KL& three 0K4& four 0K0M& and fi%e consecuti%e battles 0K@G ' $hich is about @ !ercent. Hou $ould e(!ect a fe$ !ercent of /merican "enerals to $in fi%e consecuti%e battles ' !urel b chance. =o$& has an of them $on ten consecuti%e battles ...,

statistics of small n mbers ' a close relati%e of obser%ational selection Be.".& +The sa 0 out of e%er 1 !eo!le is Chinese. Ho$ is this !ossible, # kno$ hundreds of !eo!le& and none of them is Chinese. mis n!erstan!ing of the nat re of statistics Be.".& .resident D$i"ht Eisenho$er e(!ressin" astonishment and alarm on disco%erin" that full half of all /mericans ha%e belo$ a%era"e intelli"enceC< inconsistency Be.".& .rudentl !lan for the $orst of $hich a !otential militar ad%ersar is ca!able& but thriftil i"nore scientific !ro*ections on en%ironmental dan"ers because the )re not +!ro%ed.+ Er: /ttribute the declinin" life e(!ectanc in the former So%iet Fnion to the failures of communism man ears a"o& but ne%er attribute the hi"h infant mortalit rate in the Fnited States Bno$ hi"hest of the ma*or industrial nationsC to the failures of ca!italism. Er: Consider it reasonable for the Fni%erse to continue to e(ist fore%er into the future& but *ud"e absurd the !ossibilit that it has infinite duration into the !astC< non se1 it r ' :atin for +#t doesn)t follo$+ Be.".& Eur nation $ill !re%ail because 8od is "reat. 6ut nearl e%er nation !retends this to be true< the 8erman formulation $as +8ott mit uns+C. Eften those fallin" into the non se5uitur fallac ha%e sim!l failed to reco"ni-e alternati%e !ossibilities< post hoc( ergo propter hoc ' :atin for +#t ha!!ened after& so it $as caused b + Be.".& ;aime Cardinal Sin& /rchbisho! of Manila: +# kno$ of ... a GM- ear-old $ho looks MA because she takes [contrace!ti%e] !ills.+ Er: 6efore $omen "ot the %ote& there $ere no nuclear $ea!onsC< meaningless 1 estion Be.".& What ha!!ens $hen an irresistible force meets an immo%able ob*ect, 6ut if there is such a thin" as an irresistible force there can be no immo%able ob*ects&

and %ice %ersaC< e/cl !e! mi!!le( or false !ichotomy ' considerin" onl the t$o e(tremes in a continuum of intermediate !ossibilities Be.".& +Sure& take his side< m husband)s !erfect< #)m al$a s $ron".+ Er: +Either ou lo%e our countr or ou hate it.+ Er: +#f ou)re not !art of the solution& ou)re !art of the !roblem+C< short2term vs. long2term ' a subset of the e(cluded middle& but so im!ortant #)%e !ulled it out for s!ecial attention Be.".& We can)t afford !ro"rams to feed malnourished children and educate !re-school kids. We need to ur"entl deal $ith crime on the streets. Er: Wh e(!lore s!ace or !ursue fundamental science $hen $e ha%e so hu"e a bud"et deficit,C< slippery slope( relate! to e/cl !e! mi!!le Be.".& #f $e allo$ abortion in the first $eeks of !re"nanc & it $ill be im!ossible to !re%ent the killin" of a full-term infant. Er& con%ersel : #f the state !rohibits abortion e%en in the ninth month& it $ill soon be tellin" us $hat to do $ith our bodies around the time of conce!tionC< conf sion of correlation an! ca sation Be.".& / sur%e sho$s that more colle"e "raduates are homose(ual than those $ith lesser education< therefore education makes !eo!le "a . Er: /ndean earth5uakes are correlated $ith closest a!!roaches of the !lanet Franus< therefore ' des!ite the absence of an such correlation for the nearer& more massi%e !lanet ;u!iter ' the latter causes the formerJC<
J =ETE: Children $ho $atch %iolent TI !ro"rams tend to be more %iolent $hen the "ro$ u!. 6ut did the TI cause the %iolence& or do %iolent children !referentiall en*o $atchin" %iolent !ro"rams, Ier likel both are true. Commercial defenders of TI %iolence ar"ue that an one can distin"uish bet$een tele%ision and realit . 6ut Saturda mornin" children)s !ro"rams no$ a%era"e G1 acts of %iolence !er hour. /t the %er least this desensiti-es oun" children to a""ression and random cruelt . /nd if im!ressionable adults can ha%e false memories im!lanted in their brains& $hat are $e im!lantin" in our children $hen $e e(!ose them to some 0AA&AAA acts of %iolence before the "raduate from elementar school,

stra# man ' caricaturin" a !osition to make it easier to attack Be.".& Scientists su!!ose that li%in" thin"s sim!l fell to"ether b chance ' a formulation that $illfull i"nores the central Dar$inian insi"ht& that =ature ratchets u! b sa%in" $hat $orks and discardin" $hat doesn)t. Er ' this is also a short-termKlon"-term fallac ' en%ironmentalists care more for snail darters and s!otted o$ls than the do for !eo!leC< s ppresse! evi!ence( or half2tr ths Be.".& /n ama-in"l accurate and $idel 5uoted +!ro!hec + of the assassination attem!t on .resident 7ea"an is sho$n on tele%ision< but ' an im!ortant detail ' $as it recorded before or after the e%ent, Er: These "o%ernment abuses demand re%olution& e%en if ou can)t make an omelette $ithout breakin" some e""s. Hes& but is this likel to be a re%olution in $hich far more !eo!le are killed than under the !re%ious

re"ime, What does the e(!erience of other re%olutions su""est, /re all re%olutions a"ainst o!!ressi%e re"imes desirable and in the interests of the !eo!le,C< #easel #or!s Be.".& The se!aration of !o$ers of the F.S. Constitution s!ecifies that the Fnited States ma not conduct a $ar $ithout a declaration b Con"ress. En the other hand& .residents are "i%en control of forei"n !olic and the conduct of $ars& $hich are !otentiall !o$erful tools for "ettin" themsel%es re-elected. .residents of either !olitical !art ma therefore be tem!ted to arran"e $ars $hile $a%in" the fla" and callin" the $ars somethin" else ' +!olice actions&+ +armed incursions&+ +!rotecti%e reaction strikes&+ +!acification&+ +safe"uardin" /merican interests&+ and a $ide %ariet of +o!erations&+ such as +E!eration ;ust Cause.+ Eu!hemisms for $ar are one of a broad class of rein%entions of lan"ua"e for !olitical !ur!oses. Talle rand said& +/n im!ortant art of !oliticians is to find ne$ names for institutions $hich under old names ha%e become odious to the !ublic+C. ?no$in" the e(istence of such lo"ical and rhetorical fallacies rounds out our toolkit. :ike all tools& the balone detection kit can be misused& a!!lied out of conte(t& or e%en em!lo ed as a rote alternati%e to thinkin". 6ut a!!lied *udiciousl & it can make all the difference in the $orld ' not least in e%aluatin" our o$n ar"uments before $e !resent them to others.

-9ormatK.D9KTorrent b Dodecahedron BGAA2C.