Simulation of Estimation of Population Size Using the LincolnPetersen Capture-Recapture Method on Rice Grains

Gerong, Anna Patricia Lantin, Ma. Loren Yamashita, Ariza

Abstract The exercise aims to simulate population estimation using the Lincoln-Petersen capture-recapture method. 140 rice grains were obtained and marked with blue marker. The blue rice grains serves as color 1. On the other hand, 5 rice grains were obtained and marked with black marker, which serves as color 2. The colored grains were mixed with white rice. A cup of standard size was used to count the rice per level. The N per level was computed using the formula. The total number of rice grains per 1 kilo of rice was counted. Using the N and total number of rice, the percent error was computed. Based on the experiment, it was found that the color 1 had higher values of population estimate. The N values of color 1 (=140) had a lower percent error compared to color 2 (=5). Furthermore, as one counts a higher number of rice grains per level (n), the population estimate N also increases. When the N increases, the percent error decreases. Changing the r value to a higher value on the other hand yields a smaller N. Keywords: Capture-recapture, LincolnPetersen, rice grains, population estimate, percent error Introduction Population is defined in ecology as a group of individuals of the same species that inhabit a given area. Many researches in the field of ecology measure the population density of an

organism being studied. Since most animals are mobile, special techniques are employed to measure population density. Several methods have been created in order to avoid the painstaking task of counting the entire population. Instead of counting the whole population, the estimate of the population is taken into account. Sampling methods based on live-capture techniques are used because these allow animals to be released unharmed. In these techniques, animals are captured, marked for identification and released back to the population. More often than not, one sampling is not enough. Several samplings must be done to estimate the population density. This is referred to as capture-recapture technique. The simplest of mark-capture method is the Lincoln-Peterson Index. This procedure was first used by C.J.G. Petersen in studies of marine fishes, and F.C. Lincoln in studies of waterfowl populations. In this technique, a number of species from the population is taken. The species are then marked, released back to their habitat, then after some time, the species are recaptured. This technique is based on the assumption that all individuals have the same probability of being captured in the second sample, regardless of whether they were previously captured in the first sample. (Krebs, 1998) Thus, the formula: ( )( )

where in N = Estimate of total population size n = Total number of animals captured on the second visit Page 1 of 7

m = Total number of animals captured and marked on the first visit r = Number of marked animals captured on the first visit that were then recaptured on the second visit Aside from this, there are other assumptions made when using this method: 1. The marked animals are completely mixed in the population; 2. Sampling must be at discrete time intervals and the actual time involved in taking the samples must be small in relation to the total time; 3. The population is a closed one; and 4. There are no births or deaths in the period between sampling. Since this is just an estimate, it is understood that there is a difference between the estimate that was calculated using the formula, and the actual count of the whole population. This difference is called the percent error. There are advantages to this method. The capture-recapture method allows ecologists to study organisms over time and note any changes. It is open to any form of adjustments, such as adjustments on the traps to be used or the bait to be put inside these traps, as well as the markings or tags that will be applied on the animals. All of these adjustments depend on the discretion and on the best knowledge of the researcher. By adjusting the method according to the requirements of the factors involved, the researcher can avoid encountering loopholes in the process and arrive at a fairly accurate estimate of the size of the organism's population (Boulanger et. al, 2004). One disadvantage though, is that this method is time-consuming and labor intensive. Some assumptions of this method proves to be disadvantageous. Because this method assumes that a marked individual has the same chance of being trapped as an

unmarked individual, individuals that were trapped once may be wary of traps, or they may seek traps since they have learned that traps provide food. Also, this method does not take into account the possibility of migration within the population. It is possible that emigration of other species into the population or immigration of the animals to another population will occur. It also does not provide for the possibility of birth or death within the population. Another disadvantage is that there is a possibility that the mark made on the organisms will be removed in time. The organisms are also disturbed in their natural habitat, which might affect them negatively. This experiment aims to simulate the LincolnPeterson Index technique of capture-recapture using rice grains as the animal population. Two colors of markers were used to color the rice grains, each color having a different number of populations. In doing so, the group was trying to find out the effect of the number of marked species on the estimate of the total population. Lastly, the percent error between the N (the estimate) and the actual number of the whole population was computed for each color. The two percent errors were then compared and analyzed. Methodology The materials to be used in this exercise are: 1 kilo of rice, small basin, small cup (which is standard for all groups), two different colors of markers. Five (5) grains of rice were counted, and then marked with black to be indicate as color 1. Then, 140 grains of rice were counted and marked with blue as color 2. One kilo of rice was placed on the basin, and the marked blue and black rice was mixed together with the rice grains. The grains were mixed thoroughly. Using a standard size plastic cup with markings at four different levels, an amount of rice from the first level measure up to the fourth level Page 2 of 7

were scooped and counted manually - the number of colored black rice grains, number of colored blue rice grains, and the total number of all the rice in the first level. The same was done for the second up to the fourth level. The amount attained from the four different levels was then used for the computation needed for markrecapture formula. In order to solve for the population estimate N, the formula
( )( )

the total rice grains, divided by the total rice grains multiplied by 100 to get the percent error. Results and Discussion Using the formula for the Lincoln-Petersen Index, the population estimate N was computed. The raw data, including the total number of rice grains (1 kilo of rice), and computed N is summarized in Table 1. Note that in the first level, no colored grains were recaptured, making the computation for N undefined. The group discarded the undefined results.

was used. Lastly, the percent error per level was computed. The N per level will be subtracted to

COLOR 1 (Blue)
1st Level: n= 992 m=140 r=0 N=undefined 2nd Level: n=4,249 m=140 r=8 N=74,358 3rd Level: n=6401 m=140 r=12 N=74,678 4th Level: n=8,323 m=140 r=15 N=77,681 Total rice grains counted (1 kilo rice)= 95,015
Table 1. Raw data and computed N

COLOR 2 (Black)
1st Level: n=992 m=5 r=0 N=undefined 2nd Level: n=4,249 m=5 r=1 N=21,245 3rd Level: n=6401 m=5 r=1 N=32,005 4th Level: n=8,323 m=5 r=1 N=41,615

Upon computation, the following percent errors were obtained:

COLOR 1 (blue)
2 level 21.74% 3rd level 21.40% 4th level 18.24%
nd

COLOR 2 (black)

%error: 2nd level %error: 77.64% %error: 3rd level %error: 66.32% %error: 4th level %error: 56.20%

Table 2. Percent Error

First off, a number of rice grains were collected and marked with two colors (color 1=140 and color 2=5). Colors 1 and 2 were then used in the formula as m, or the number of marked organisms. Why use two colors? In doing so, the group tried to observe the effect of having a higher number of marked species to the population estimate N. Based on Table 1, it can be seen that color 2, having a smaller number of colored grains (=5) yielded a smaller number of Page 3 of 7

N. Comparing the values of N in the 2nd level for colors 1 and 2, it can be seen that color 1 produced a population estimate of 74,358 rice grains as compared to color 2 which yielded a population estimate of only 21,245. Again in Table 2, the same pattern was observed; there was a higher percent error obtained in color 2. As seen in the percent error in the second level,
90,000 80,000 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 0 2nd Level 3rd Level 21,245 32,005 74,358 74,678

21.74% was the computed percent error for color 1, as compared to the 77.64% error for color 2. The data obtained proves that the higher the value of m, the higher values of the population estimate N. All of these observed relationships between m and N are true also for levels 3 to 4.

77,681

Color 1 (m=140) 41,615 Color 2 (m=5)

4th Level

Figure 1. Values of N per level for color 1 and color 2

During the experiment, the cup used to collect the rice grains was marked with four levels. The levels in the cup can be thought of as the different trials in the collection of rice grains. As one collects rice grains in the different levels, the number of rice grains collected (n) increases. It is observed that as the n increases in number, so does the N; they are directly proportional. On
100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 0 0 2,000 4,000 6,000 74,358

the other hand, Table 2 shows that the percent error per level decreases as the number of rice grains collected increases; in other words, the total number of rice grains collected per level is inversely proportional to the percent error. In effect, the higher the total of rice grains collected per level, the higher the population estimate N and the lower the percent error.

74,678

77,681 Color 1

32,005 21,245

42,615

Color 2

8,000

10,000

Figure 2. Total rice grains per level n (x-axis) versus population estimate N (y-axis) for colors 1 and 2

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After collecting rice grains and marking them with two different colors, the colored rice grains were then mixed with the uncolored rice grains. During the collection of rice grains in the cup per level, the total number of colored rice grains recaptured was counted, and this stands as the variable r in the Lincoln-Petersen formula. What, then, is the relationship between the number of marked grains r and the population estimate N? Take for example the N of color 1 in the second level, which is equal to 74,358. The r counted for the second level is equal to 8. If it was a different value for r was counted, say r=9, the N changes. Applying the formula
( )( )

, and substituting the new value for r,

the N now becomes 66,096. Thus, it can be inferred that the relationship between the N (the population estimate) and r (number of colored grains recaptured) is inversely proportional; that is, increasing the number of recaptured grains r decreases the population estimate N. Now that the N for each level was obtained, the percent error was computed (Table 2). The general rule for the computations is that the higher the N, the lower the percent error. That means that a small population sampling size would yield a higher percent error. As a result, the population estimate that will be computed will be highly inaccurate. Percent errors are greatly attributed in general to human errors. In this experiment, human errors could be any of the following: wrong counting of rice grains, spillage of rice grains, and marking the rice grains more or less than what should have been marked (in this case, 140 grains for color 1, and 5 grains for color 2). In the actual use of the capture-recapture methods, other errors can also be attributed to uncontrolled variables such as the possibility of migration (immigration and emigration), loss of markings on the animal, and birth and death factors.

During the experiment, all the groups were assigned different values of m for color 1 and color 2 (Table 3). It is observed in the given data that in the first color, all the groups were given increasing number, while for the second color, the given data is in decreasing order. This setup will further show the effect of having a small number of m to the total number of recaptured rice grains r. The general trend among the data obtained by all groups (Table 4) shows that the smaller the marked grains, the fewer the recaptured grains. Up to the fourth level where it is expected that the chance of recapturing marked grains is high, it is evident that out of the hundred grains marked, only a few were recaptured. At the most, only 15 grains were recaptured out of the 140 marked rice grains. For those who are going to use the capture-recapture method, this implies that the researchers should mark enough organisms in order to obtain an accurate population estimate. Otherwise, marking a few would yield few, if not zero, recapture, therefore affecting the population estimate. Following this concept, marking only a few grains would yield a higher percent error. Indeed, in this experiment, the ratio that obtained the highest percent error is that of groups 1 and 10, having a ratio of 5:140 and 140:5, respectively. For group 1, the highest percent error obtained is in the third level, having a percent error of 40% for color 1 and 69% for color 2. For group 10, the data is summarized in Table 2. Group No. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Color 1 5 20 35 50 65 80 95 110 125 140 Color 2 140 125 110 95 80 65 50 35 20 5

Table 3. Number of marked rice grains per group

Level Grp 1= 0 Grp 2= 0 Grp 3= 0 Grp 5=4 Grp 7=2 Grp 8=0 Grp 9=1 Grp 10=0 Grp 1= 1 Grp 2= 0 Grp 3= 12 Grp 5=10 Grp 7=5 Grp 8=8 Grp 9=7 Grp 10=8 Grp 1= 7 Grp 2= 5 Grp 3= 4 Grp 5=22 Grp 7=12 Grp 8=9 Grp 9=17 Grp 10=12 Grp 1= 2 Grp 2= 2 Grp 3= 9 Grp 5=24 Grp 7=29 Grp 8=14 Grp 9=24 Grp 10=15

Color 1 Grp 1= 2 Grp 2= 1 Grp 3= 0 Grp 5=3 Grp 7=0 Grp 8=0 Grp 9=0 Grp 10=0 Grp 1= 10 Grp 2= 5 Grp 3= 14 Grp 5=8 Grp 7=4 Grp 8=1 Grp 9=3 Grp 10=1 Grp 1= 15 Grp 2= 8 Grp 3= 14 Grp 5=27 Grp 7= 7 Grp 8=3 Grp 9=2 Grp 10=1 Grp 1= 23 Grp 2=21 Grp 3= 23 Grp 5=34 Grp 7=12 Grp 8=4 Grp 9=6 Grp 10=1

Color 2

1st

2nd

3rd

4th

Table 4. Recaptured marked rice grains (r) per group

Conclusion The experiment aimed to simulate the LincolnPetersen method of capture-recapture to find an estimation of the population, using rice grains as the species. 140 grains were collected and colored as blue, and 5 grains were obtained and colored as black. This step was done in order to observe the effect of the number of marked rice grains to the population estimate. In general, it can be concluded that the higher the N, the lower the percent error. Furthermore, it was

found out that It was found out that the higher the value of m (color 1=140) gave higher values of population estimate N per level. After collecting and marking the rice grains, the colored grains were returned to the rice grains inside the basin and mixed. The total number of rice grains per level n was counted (Table 1). It was observed that the higher the n, the higher the population estimate N. The colored rice grains recaptured r was also counted per level.

Obtaining a higher value of r will yield a lower population estimate N. When the total population of the rice grains was counted, the percent error was computed by subtracting the total population of the rice grains from the population estimate N per level, divided by the total population of the rice grains, multiplied by 100. A higher percent error was observed in color 2 (=5) than in color 1 (=140); thus, it is be concluded that a higher m yields a lower percent error. The same pattern is true of the relationship between the population estimate N and the percent error; the higher the N per level, the lower the percent error. Percent errors are generally attributed to human errors such as inaccuracy in counting of the rice grains, and marking more or less than the required number of grains. References Thompson, S. K. (2012). Sampling. Hoboken, N.J. : Wiley. Molles, M. C. (2013). Ecology : concepts and applications. New York : McGraw-Hill. Mark and recapture. Retrieved 10 Feb 2013 from http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Mark_and_recaptur e Estimating animal population size using markrecapture techniques. Retrieved 10 Feb 2013 from http://faculty.clintoncc.suny.edu/faculty/michael .gregory/files/ENV%20101/ENV%20101%20La boratory/MarkRecapture%20Sampling/lincoln%20instructionsdried%20bean%20version.htm Estimating population sizes by mark-recapture and removal sampling methods. Retrieved 10 Feb 2013 from

http://www.sbs.utexas.edu/jcabbott/courses/bio2 08web/labs/populations/populations.htm Estimating the size of animal populations. Retrieved 10 Feb 2013 from http://www.neiu.edu/~jkasmer/Biol380/Labs/ma rk&.htm What are the advantages and disadvantages of the capture-mark-recapture method? Retrieved 10 Feb 2013 from http://www.chacha.com/question/what-are-theadvantages-and-disadvantages-of-thecapture%26%2345%3Bmark%26%2345%3Brec apture-method Capture-recapture webpage. Retrieved 10 Feb 2013 from http://www.pitt.edu/~yuc2/cr/main.htm Lab 5: Capture recapture. Retrieved 10 Feb 2013 from http://www.cnr.uidaho.edu/wlf448/cap_recap.ht m

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