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.. , .. , ..

.. , .. , ..


2007

621.396.6.007.63(075)
84473-1
875
:
, ,
25 ()
..
, ,


..

875

, ..
: / .. , .. , .. . :
- . . . -, 2007. 84 . 100 . ISBN 978-5-8265-0664-6.
, ,
.
6 , .. .
, 210200
210300 .

621.396.6.007.63(075)
84473-1

ISBN 978-5-8265-0664-6


(), 2007


,
,



..
..
18.12.10.07
60 84/16. 4,88 . . . 100 . 816
-

392000, , , 106, . 14


, - , (). , .
, ,
,
. , , . , ()

. .
, , .
1.
1.1.
.
. ,
, . , (. 1.1).
, :
=

i mi ;
mi

Y =

yi mi ;
mi

Z =

zi mi ,
mi

xi, yi, zi , ; mi .

. 1.1.

2. (. 1.2). , XY .
() , .
=

i xi ;
cxi

Y =

yi yi ;
c yi

Z =

zi zi ,
c zi

xi , yi , zi ; xi xi , yi yi , zi z i
xi, yi, zii ;

. 1.2.

3. :

pi = G ;
pi xi = 0; pi yi = 0; pi zi = 0;
pi xi yi = 0; pi xi zi = 0; pi xi zi = 0,
pi , i- ; G .
( Z = 0), :

pi = G; pi xi = 0; pi yi = 0.
4. , 4
1
1
1 1 G
1


2
3
4 2 0
1
.
=
y1
2
3
4 3 0

1 1 2 2 3 3 4 4 4 0
5. (, MathCAD) ,
: p1; p2; p3; p4.
6. .
, , , . .
7.
z1 = p1c z1 ; z2 = p 2 c z2 ; z3 = p3c z3 ; z4 = p 4 c z4 .

zi zi min :
= zi zi min ,

, , .
1.2.

, .. . () , :
;
;
.
, , , .

. 1.3. :
; Z;

1. (
1.1). , .
2. , .
(. 1.3, ) 6 , 6 , .
1- :

c x x + c x y c x y z = 0;

(1)

c y y + c y z x c y x z = 0;

(2)

c z z + c z y z c z x y = 0;

(3)

m&x& +

m&y& +

m&z& +

&& x J xy
&& y J xz
&& z
J x

c y zy + c z yz +
+

(c z y 2 + c y z 2 ) x c z xy y c y xz z = 0;

c x zx c z xz +
+ (c z z 2 ) y c z xy x c x yz z = 0;
&& x + J yz
&& y + J z
&& z c x yx c y xy +
J xz
2
2
+ (c z y + c y x ) z c y xz x c x yz y = 0,
(6)

(4)

&& x + J y
&& y J yz
&& z +
J xy

(5)

cx, cy, cz , Y, Z; x, y, z ( , ); Jx, Jy, Jz


; Jxy, Jyz, Jzx ; m ; x, y, z .
, 6 : 3 3 .
, , .
:
1 = 1cos (t + ); 2 = 2cos (t + ); 3 = A3cos (t + );
4 = A4cos (t + ); 5 = A5cos (t + ); 6 = A6cos (t + ).

(1) (6), , 2
A12 + B10 + C8 + D6 + E4 + F2 + G = 0.
, , , , X Y ,
2.
2 4 :

c z z = 0;

(7)

(c x y 2 + c y x 2 ) z = 0;
m&x& + c x x + c x z y = 0;
&& y + c x zx + (c x z 2 + c z x 2 ) y = 0;
J y
m&y& + c y y c y z x = 0;
&& x c y zy + (c y y 2 + c y z 2 ) x = 0.
J x

(8)

m&z& +

&& z +
J z

(9)
(10)
(11)
(12)

(7) (8) Z
:

z ;

1 =

2 =

( y 2 + c y x 2 ) .
Jz

(9) (10) 3 4, :
34, 4 132,4 + b1 = 0,

1 =

( z 2 + c z x 2 ) + c x ;
Jy

b1 =

( c x ) ( z 2 + c z x 2 ) ( c x z )2 .
mJy

(11) (12) 5 6, :
54,6 2 52,6 + b2 = 0,

2 =

( z y 2 + c y z 2 ) + c y ;
Jx

2
(
c y ) ( z y 2 + c y z 2 ) + ( c y z )

.
b2 =

m Jx

3- , .. , , 6 :
1 =

x ;
m

2 =

y ;
m

3 =

4 =

( z y 2 + c y z 2 ) ;

5 =

( z 2 + c z x 2 ) ;

6 =

( y 2 + c y x 2 ) .

z ;
m

Jx

Jy

Jz

, .
, , .

600 , , 10 , .
1.3.

. (, ). ,
(. 1.4).
, , ..
P = f (z).
(. 1.1) .
. ,
.

. 1.4. :
1 ; 2 ; 3

1.1

, /3

, /2

0,030,07

0,81,0

0,10

0,35

20

0,08

0,127

0,12

0,3

23

0,180,2

20

0,30,4

1,87

30

0,30,4

2,68

140

0,30,4


()


708
0,09

m ;
S ;
K , .

1. , , /2
=

mg
(1 + K ),
S

(1)

K = &z& / g , .
2. ,
U = mg (H + z).
3. ,
U = VTv = ShTv,

V ; Tv , .
4.
h=

mg ( H + z )
.
STv

/Tv = (1),
h=

H+z
.
1+ K

5.
h=

H
.
K

, , .
,
, (. 1.5).

. 1.5. = f() :
1 ( = 0,033 /3); 2 ( = 0,127 /3)

1.4.

. , , , .. , , . , ,
., .. 2 .

a, b, h ; a , ;
m , ;
E , /2;
, /3;
n ;
, .

1.
amax = ng,
g .
2.
v0 = amax

= v02 / 2 g .

3. f01 ( ), ,
f 01 =

Ch
a

K K 10 5 ,

K = c c / E , E, Ec ; K = 1 /(1 + m / m ) , m, m
.
, (/b 1)

D
C= 1
,
2 m + m
Eh 3

; ( = 0,3); 1 12 (1 2 )
, .
1 . 1.2.
D =

1.2

1 = 9,87(1 + 2), = a/b

1 = 22,37 1 + 0,48 2 + 0,19 4

1 = 9,87 1 + 0,57 2 + 5,14 4

1 = 22,372 1 + 0,549 2 + 0,475 4

1 = 15,42 1 + 1,19 2 + 2,1 4

1 = 22,37 1 + 0,61 2 + 4

4.
K = (2f01)2m.
5.
Z = (m + m) g/K.
6.
2
Z max = Z
+ (V0 / 2f 01 ) 2 .

7.
Z = Z + Zmax.

8.
P = K Z.
9.
n = n1n2n3,
n1 ; n2 ; n3 .

:
n1
=
1,251,5;
n2 = 1,01,5; n3 = 1,23,0. ( ).
10.
= /n,
.
11. ,
= /4.
12.
J = bh3/12.
13.
W = J/(0,5h).
14. ,
= /W.
15. ( ). ,
. > ( ,
, .).
,

f =

2i
2l

EJ
,
F

i , : i = i (
), i =(2i 1) /2 ( ), i = (2i + 1) /2 (
); i .
mi, m
m = m0 +

1 n
xi mi ,
l i =1

l ; xi ( ) mi.
1.5.

, ,
. .
, . .
1. , ,
h (. 1.6).
2. (. 1.7).

(. 1.8).

. 1.6.

. 1.7.
( )

. 1.8. ,

m , ;
L , ;
l , ;
h , ;
d , ;
E , /2;
G , /2;
n .

1. , X, Y Z:
X

1
48 EJ

fx =

m(l ) 3 1

8
(
2
)

k
+

0, 5


1 2 (2l ) 3
(2l ) 4 GJ
h3
f =
+


2 m 24 EJ 3EJ 32 EJ (2hEJ + 2lGJ )

0,6

1
24 EJ

fz =

3
2 3
mh 1 +

6k + 1

0,5

J = d4/64 ; G , k = h/2l.
2.

fi

0 ( 0 = 0,020,025),
20.
3.
=

4.
P = mgn.
, x,
Py z .
5. (. 1.8):
X
hPx
;
2 (1 + 6k )

M A = M D = (1 + 3k )

M = M = 1,5kh

P
;
1 + 6k

Y
MA = MD =

Ph
;
2

Z
M B = MC =

Pl
.
2 (2 + k )

6. :
= D =

M Ad
M d
; = = .
2J
2J

7. (. 1.9).
8. .
t =

N
.
fi

. 1.9.

;
a, b, h , ;
E , /2;
;
z0 , .

, (. 1.10) X.
1.
f1 =

Eh 2

2a 2

12 (1 2 )

, ; ; b ; ; .
2.
1
=
.
f1

. 1.10.

3. (. 1.11) ( x = a/2 y = b/2):


K1 ( x , y )
W ( x) =
Z0 ,

K1(x, y) = K1(x) K1(y) ( 1 , X Y ); x, y .

. 1.11. K1 K2

, x = y = 0,5.
.
= x/l

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

K1(x)

0,394

0,749

1,03

1,211

1,273

1,211

4.
= W0

x
cos
.
a
a

5.
f = 1 ( x) 2 ( x) =

z
K1 ( x1 , 1 ) K1 ( x 2 , 1 ) ,
y

K1(x1, y1) K1(x2, y1) x


y
f =

z
K1 ( x1 ) K1 ( 1 ) K1 ( x 2 ) K1 ( 1 ) .
y

6. , (. 1.12) :
3EJ f
(3 + 4k ) EJ
+
= Af + M A =
;
(1 + k )hl
(1 + k )h
= f + M =
C = Cf + M C =

3EJ f
(1 + k )hl

3(1 + 2k ) EJ f
(1 + k )h

2 EJ
(1 + k )l
+

EJ
(1 + k )l

. 1.12.

7. (, )
Md
i = i .
2J
8. , (. 1.9).

tp = Np/f1.
2.
2.1.

, 600
. , ,
. : ,
, , .
.
, 3 , .

P , ;
L1, L2, L3 (D, H) ( ), ;
l1, l2, l3 , ;
tc , C.

1. . , ,
.
, : ,
(h) , (h1 h2).

. 2.1. :
;

h1, 2 =

Ki
i =1

l1l2

Ki i- ; l1, l2 ; n .

l3 = h + h1 + h2.
2. (S), (S) (S)
S = 2L3(L1 + L2), S = S = L1L2.
1 , 2 , 4 .
3. , 1, 2 4
S1 = S2 = l1l2, S4 = 2l3 (l1 + l2).
4. 1 2
1

1 1
S
= + 1 ,
S
, .
4
4 = ,

, , 4,
.
.
5.
I
I
t
= 2t2I t
,

L4 ( , L4 ).
6. (t). , 100200
300400 , 1015 . t = tc + t.
tm = (t + tc)/2.
7. , , 1/4 ,
= 0,54 (gPr )1m/ 4

1/ 4

m ti t c

1m/ 2 L

N,

; a
, 2/; a , 2/c; , /( ); ti
i- ; L , : ,
; N :
N = 1, , , N = 0,7 N = 1,3.

, K1; g , /c2; Pr =

1/ 4

t t
= A1 i c
L

N,

1 (. )
tm, C

10

20

30

40

60

80

100

A1

1,4

1,38

1,36

1,34

1,31

1,29

1,27

,
, , .
8.

= 12f (t1t2);
4

t1 + 273 t 2 + 273

100 100
,
f (t1 , t 2 ) = 5,67
t1 t 2

t1 ; t2 ; 12 ( 12 = 1).
9.
= + , = + , = + .
10.
= s + s + s.
11.

t I = t c + (t t c )1 +

12. , t ()
PI = (t t),
.

.
13. 1, , -

tI t
h
k i = Nf i A2 4
hi
l
ki - ; hi ; l = l1l2 ; l = l3l 2 l = l3l1 .
3 ,

k = /h.
, , ,
(). 2 .

Tm, C

50

100

200

0,63

0,58

0,56

0,44

f(hi/l) (. 2.2).

. 2.2. -

14. 1, 2 4
,
, , , .
1; 2; k4.
15. ,

K1 = k1 + 1; K4 = k4 + 4; K2 = 2/h + 2.
, ,

K1 = k1 + 1; K2 = k2 + 2; K4 = (k1 + k2)/2 + 4.
16.
1
1
,
+
t II = t c + P

P , ; ,
;
.
17. , . 10 %,
I
II
t III
p = (t + t ) / 2.

t = f (P) t = f (P) (. 2.3). . .


t = f (P) t = f (P).
().
,
, , .

. 2.3.

2.2.

. , .
, , . .
. , .
.

)
)
. 2.4. :
;

, , .

P , ;
L1, L2, L3 , ;
s1, s2, s 1, 2 ; 2;
t .

1. , , .. .
(. 2.5).
2. t .
(t) = 0,75 (t),
. 2.5 , .
3. I ( I
(5 1), /2 ).

. 2.5.

4.

P = f(t, t) (t t) S,
(
0,75, = . ); = 1 ; S ( ).
5. t1I ()
Ph
,
M A = MD =
2
S
a = 2 (S 1 + S 1 ) 1 (S 2 + S 2 S 1 S 1 ) ; S1, S2, S1, S2 S2
;

S
S
b = 2 + 1 A1 + A2 D (S 2 + S 2 S 1 S 1 ) + S 1 S 1 2 t c ;
S 2
S 2

1 = S1t + S1t, 2 = S2t + S2t, = 1 + 2;


D = S

P P
t
;
1
S 2 S 2

= DA1 + [A (S 2 + S 2 ) D ] t c .

, , t1I t 2I , ..
() , ().
6.
t 2I = D

S 1t1
.
S 2

7.
I
t
= 2t1I tc .

8. ( 2)
I
I
t
= 2t2I t
.

9.

G I = s11Tc c 2 g

h1 + h2 h1 h2

Tc
T1 T2
s
Tc + 1 1
s2 2

s
T2 + 1 1

T1

s1, s2, s 1, 2 ( ); h1 h2 1 2 ; 1, 2,
( , = 0,65).
(. 2.1); 1, 2, .
10. (. 2.6) II.
, , 20
G0 = VK,
V ; K (K = V/V); 20 .

2.1
, .

b/l
1:4

1:3

1:2

15

0,30

0,27

0,23

30

0,45

0,43

0,39

45

0,56

0,54

0,50

60

0,62

0,60

0,56

90

0,65

0,64

0,62

. 2.6.

11. II ,
(t), (t), ( . 4) ( . 2.5 t)
.
II
GII.
12. t1II , t 2II , t
GII/G0 (. 2.6) III.
13. , ,

P II = P + 2G IIC t 2II t1II .


14. t

II*


t II* =

II

1 2 G
II
II

.
(
)
(
)
t
t
S
S
t
S
t

+
+

1
1
1
1
1

c
S 1 II

15. t tII 5 %,

tIII = tII 0,1 t t II

t III (. 2.5) , , PIII .

16. f t , t III PIII . DIII c PII PIII .


PIII

t III .

III
t1 , t 2 , t

III

G .

III

17. (. 2.6) . , ,

P III = PIII + 2G IIIC t 2III t1III .

18.

t III* =

1
S 1

2G IIIC

III
III

.
t
t
S
S
t
S
t
(
)

+
+

1
2
1
1
1
1

III

19. t () :
t t III
t t III*

t t III
t lII*

t lIII*

; P = P III +

t t III
t II

t III

(P

II

P III .

t . 2.4.
t = f(P) ( t). , ,
. , , () .
2.3.

, ,
, (. 2.7).
,
.
, . , . 3 .
.

, , ;
N ;
n ;
Ly Lz Y Z;
h ;
ly ;
l lz ().

. 2.7. :
1 ; 2


1. G.
2. x
S = L y L z h l N

2 N

lyi lzi n yi .
i =1

3.
R =

Gl
.
S x

l' ; .
4. i-

= 0,8

R .

5. , , x
m

P i
i =1

1000G

i i- , x; ; G
.
6.

= +

P
,
S

S , .

t = t0 + ,

t0 .
7.
=

.
1000G
. , .
2.4.

t.max ;

R ;
;
tc ;
R ( R 0,11,0 /).

1.
I
I
t
= 2t2I t
,

R () . max .
2.
R =

(t.max tc ) P (R + R )
qP

q , (q 0,9).
3. (. 2.8)
t tc = PpacR.

4. t (. 2.9) Lmin.
5. : l ; b ; h ; d . : 90 90 ; = 3; d = 5
; h = 20 ; b = 12 ( ) b = 6 ( ).
6.
b=

Lmin n
,
n 1

n .

. 2.8.

. 2.9. Rc
tc = 50 C; = 0,9; = 0,2 ; h = 30

b , (
= 810 , 2,5 ).


> ,
h2

h ; ; . l , l 0,9Lmin:
l = n (b + ) b.

, /3

, /( )

8960

370

2660

160

1760

170

7840

55

7840

14


..

0,060,07

0,200,30

() ..

0,800,85

0,800,88

7.
Bi = 0,5/,

Bi < 1 ( ), Bi >1 ( ), Bi = 1 ( ).
8. :
S1 ;
S2 , ;
S3 ;
S4 ;
S5 .
S5 = lL.

. 2.10.


S= S1+ S2+ S3+ S4 = (n 1) (bLmin) + 2hl(n 1) +
+ 2(h +d)Lmin + n[2h +Lmin].
9.
= . + .; = . + .; = ij f (t, t).
S1 S2 (. 2.10)

f (t , t c ) = 5,67 [(t + 273) 4 (t c + 273) 4 ] 10 8 (t t c ) 1 .


, /(2 )
= 5,62A(t)B;
1/ 4

t t
B = c
Lmin

t = 0,5 (t + tc).
(t) (. 2.11).
(t) . 2.12.

. 2.11. = f(T)

. 2.12.

10. , , ,
P = S(t tc).
11. , C/,
1
II
R
=
.
S

12. ,
P0 = Pi = S i [ i (ti tic ) + i (ti t c )] ,

i , i- ; tic .
S3; S4 S5 tc.
S1 S2 ( )
tic = t (t tc) H,
H ; t .
,
= f(),
1/4

1/4

= 4(t)bC, t = 0,5 (t + tc), C = (t tc) /(L) (. 2.13 2.14). tci = tc S3, S4, S5. tci = tic S1 S2 (
).

. 2.13. 4 = f (T)

, C/

I
=
R

t tc
.
P

R
=

I
II
R
R
I
II
R
+ R

, ,
.= + .

. .

. 2.14. H = f()

, . S5
. , . .

(
).
3.
3.1.


. , ( 5)
, .
. ( 5)
, .
, , :

Z
Z
A = 8,6 ln [ch(K t )] + ln 1 + 0,5 + th (K t ) ,

Z Z

K , K =

j a ; Z :

Z =

1
, ( ), Z = j a r , ( );
ja r

Z =

j a
=
K

j a
;

(/);
a = 0 ;
;
0=4 107 / ;
(1/);
= 0 , 0 = 107/(4c2);
c (c = 2,997925 /), 0 = 8,85416 (/);
r, t , .
( 104 ) , :

A = 8,6 ln 1 +

1
Z t ;
2


A = 8,6 ln 1 +

Z
2Z

K t = 8,6 ln 1 +

t
;
2r

( l >5) , :
A = 8,6 ln 1 +

1
Z 0 t .
2

104 (A).

3

H
t

S=
= 0,22 0 1 1 ,
H
r0

; ; 0

; t ; r0 , .
4.
4.1.
-

- , . , , , .
( ) -
,
.

m r
n r
N = Ni N j .
i =1

(4.1)

j =1

( )

N = N i
i =1

( )

Nj
j =1

(4.2)

() , (4.2) () () :

( )

( )

(4.3)

( )

(4.4)

N max = Ni max N j min ;


i =1

j =1

( )

N min = N i min N j max .


i =1

j =1

() () ,
, :

( ) = N max N = ( )i ( )j ;

(4.5)

( ) = N min N = ( )i ( )j .

(4.6)

i =1

j =1

i =1

j =1

:
m
N = N max N min =
Ni
i =1

m+n

j =1

i =1

n
+
Nj
j =1

max

max

(N i )min +
m

i =1

(N j )min = N i ,

Ni .
(4.7) ,
.
-
=

m+ n

i .

(4.8)

, , , :
=


=
;
2
2

(4.9)

+
.
2

(4.10)

(4.9) (4.10) ,
, .
.
1. (4.9) (4.10) i i .
2. (4.8)
=

m+ n

i .

(4.11)

i =1

3. (4.5) (4.6) (4.10)


n r
( ) + ( ) m r
=
= i j .
2
i =1
j =1

4.
= 2 .

5. :

( ) = + , ( ) = .
6.

N max = N + ( ) , N min = N + ( ) .

(4.12)

,
.
( ) .
7. N Nmax Nmin , (4.7) .
8. (4.5), (4.6): ( ) ( ) .
9. (4.12).
(4.8).
10.
( )i ( )i .
11. (4.9) (4.10).
12. i (4.12)
, . i
. .
- . , , ,
, . , , .
4.2.

5.
.
. 3 ( ),
99,7 % 0,3 % 3. , 3,
. 2, 95,6 % .

n

( x xi ) 2
1

n 1

x i ; n .
: , , , , .

. .
1. (3, 2 ). .
2. , 3, X1 = 31, X2 = 32, , Xn = 3n.
3.
2



= 1 + 2 + ... + n .
3
3


3
4. x = 3.

, , .
1.
X = X1 + X2 + ... + Xn.

2. .
3.
K i

=
3

12 + 3 22 + ...3 n2

Ki = 1; 2 3.
(3, 2 ),

=
3

12

22

.
+ ...

n2

4.
1 = 3 12 , , n = 3 n2 .

,
4.
5.
5.1.
, .
. , ,
.

, , .
, ,
( ).
(. 5.1).
5.1.

:
(, , )
(, , , )
, ,
(, , ); ; -
, :
, , ..
, .

:

(, ,
)
:

5.2.

(, , )
. , . .
() : 1) ; 2) ; 3) .
:
, ; .

, , , .
, - . ,
( 2.11671). . , .
, ,
. . , . .
.

( ). , ( , , , .),

i = i ; i = 1, ..., n; j = 1, ..., n1 ,
Pj
i , i- ; i i-ro ; Pj
j- .
( , ..),
, .
( )
n

mi i
i 1
n1

m j Pj
j 1

, .
, . : 1)
; 2) ; 3) ;
4)
n

i =1

i =1

mi ; m j = 1.
, , - , .

( 2.11671). () .
5.2 . . 19 % .

,
i

, qi

,
mi

qi .mi

,
Di

5.2.
( )

560

500

1,12

0,3

0,336

55

50

0,91

0,2

0,182

4500

4500

0,1

0,1

12

10

1,2

0,1

1,2

27

27

0,1

0,1

370190245,5

400175275

1,15

0,2

0,23

Q1 = 2,148; 1 = 0,3; Q11 = 2,148 0,3 = 0,644.


Di

qi

mi

Qi

13

12

0.89

0,89

Q2 = 0,89; 2 = 0,1; Q22 = 0,89 0,1 = 0,089.

Di

qi

mi

Qi

0,997

0,95

1,05

1,05

Q3 = 1,05; 3 = 0,1; Q33 = 1,05 0,1 = 0,105.




Di

qi

mi

Qi

0,7

0,3

0,21

0,7

0,3

0,21

0,4

0,4

Q4 = 0,82; 4 = 0,1; Q44 = 0,82 0,1 = 0,082.




Di

qi

mi

Qi

0,5

0,5

1,3

0,2

0,26

0,1

0,1

0,2

0,2

Q5 =1,06; 5 = 0,1; Q55 = 1,06 0,1 = 0,106.



, .


Di

qi

mi

Qi

1000

900

0,9

0,9

Q6 = 0,9; 6 = 0,1; Q66 = 0,9 0,1 = 0,09.

Di

qi

mi

Qi


, K

0,86

0,9

0,95

0,3

0,285

, K

0,75

0,8

0,94

0,4

0,376

, K

0,35

0,8

0,44

0,3

0,135

Q7 = 0,793; 7 = 0,1; Q77 = 0,793 0,1 = 0,0793.


Q = 0,644 + 0,089 + 0,105 + 0,082 + 0,106 + 0,09 + 0,0793 = 1,19.


6.
6.1.

,
, . , , .
.
(
) () .
, , , .
,
.
, ,
, - (). , . ,
, - , (,
..).
, , , . ,
- .
, , .
, , .
, (, ) .
( ), ,
. :
1) , , - ;
2) . ;
3) () , , ,
, ..
. () . () ,
, .
. ,
, .
,
. , ( )

. .
.
, , . ,
() , . ,
().
. 6.1.

. 6.1.

, .. (, ) , ,
. .
, a priori.
.
, , ,
, . . , - .
() , .. , , , , .
6.2.

.
, . 6.1.
6.1

()

, [0; t ]

P (t ) = N (t ) / N

m t =


, t ,

1
N

Ti
i =1

N (t ) N (t + t )
(t ) =
N (t ) t

N (t ) , t; N ; Ti i- . , , , mt , , (t ) f (t ) [l/]. [0; t ] P(t )

Q(t ) ( ) F (t ) , ..

P(t ) = P [T > t ] =1 F (t ), Q(t ) = P [T t ] = F (t ) ,

P [A] .

P(t ), Q(t ), f (t ), (t ) mt . 6.2.

[t1 ; t 2 ]

t2

P(t2 )
P(t1 , t2 ) =
= exp (t ) dt .
P(t1 )
t

P(t ), (t ) .

(t ) , . 6.2.

: (I), (II) (III). , t p , ..


tp

1
=
(t ) dt ,
tp 0

t , .
6.2

(t )

(t )

Q(t )

(t )

1 Q(t )

f (t )

(t )

f (x ) d (x )

exp (x ) dx
0

f (x ) d (x )

1 exp (x ) dx
0

(t ) exp (x ) dx
0

Q(t )

Q(t )

1 P(t )

f (t )

(t )

m(t )

d
P(t )
dt

d
Q(t )
dt

f (t )

d
P(t ) / P(t )
dt

d
Q(t ) / (1 Q(t ))
dt

f (t ) / f (x ) d (x )

P(t ) d (t )

(t )

(1 Q(t )) dt

tf (t ) dt

exp (x ) dx dt
0

, 1/

III
II

t,
. 6.2. (t)


, . :
[0, t ]
P (t ) = P[ t ] = F (t ) ;

m = M [] = t f (t ) dt ,

F (t ), f (t ) .

, .
K (t ) , t
.
K K (t ) , .. K ,
, ,
K = lim K (t ) =
t

mt
.
mt + m

(6.1)

K (t ) , ,
K (t ) =

Ki (t ) ,
i =1

K i (t ) i- .
K (t ) K K (t ) K (. . 6.3, ):
K (t ) = 1 K (t ), K = 1 K .
R(t , t + ) , t , , , , t (i ) , R(t , t + )

R (t , t + ) = N (t , t + ) / N ,

N (t , t + ) , t
t +.
R( ) , ,
R( ) = lim R(t , t + ) R( ) = K P( ) ,
t

.
K (t ), K (t ), R( ) K , K . 6.3.

(6.2)

K (t )

K (t )

R( )

. 6.3. K(t), K, K(t), K () R() ()

, , ,
, , , ..
K =

t
t + t + t

t ; t ; t
.
6.3.

, : (), (), - .
6.3.1.

:

e t , t 0;
f (t ) =
0,
t < 0;

(6.3)

P(t ) = f (t ) dt = e t ; Q(t ) =1 e t ;

(6.4)


(t ) =

f (t )
= ;
P (t )

(t ) = ;

(6.5)

1
1 ~
mt = P(t )dt = ; m
.
t =

P(t )
f (t )
(t )

(t )

f (t )

P(t )

t
. 6.4. (t), f(t), (t)

() , ..

(6.6)

e t , t 0;
f (t ) =
0, t < 0,

P (t ) = 1 e t , m =1 / .

(6.7)

(6.8)

, .. , , , .
, P (t ) t
t , , , .

K =
.
+
6.3.2.

( ) , (t ) const . () mt ( ) t ( ) (. 6.5).
P(t )
f (t )
(t )

P(t )

(t )

0,4
t

f (t )
t

mt

. 6.5. (t), f(t), (t)


f (t ) =

(t mt )2
exp
,
2t2
2

t2 ; mt .
P(t )

P(t ) =
t

t mt

t

(t mt )2
t mt
dt = 0,5
exp
2

2
2

t
t

(u ) =

1
2

x2
dx .
2

exp
0

(u ) , ( u ) = (u ) .
(t )

(t ) =

f (t )
=
P(t )

(t mt )2
exp

2 t2

t mt
2 0,5
t

6.4.

: , , , , .
, . 6.6.
(). :
1) , (
, ..);
2) ( );
3) ( );
4) ( , , , .);
5) ( , , ).
. 6.3.
6.5.

(. 6.7).
6.6.

:
1. . , , .
( , .)
6.3


.

.

.
,
.
,

().

( )

(, , )


(,
)


(
)

(, ,
)

. 6.6.

(, ,
, )

(,

(,

. 6.7.

:
( );
, ;
, .
, -, , , , .
2. . , . , , , ,
, , ,
.
.
: , ,
; ,
.
6.7.

.
1. . . .
2. .
, , . , .
.

. 6.8.

( )


: P, q,


( )


( )


Q
. 6.8.


, .
, . , ( , ,
).

6.8.

(),
, . .

. 6.9.

1. . , , .. (. 6.9).
() Ps (t ) [0, t ]

Ps (t ) =

pi (t ) ,

(6.9)

i =1

pi (t ) i- ; N .

(t ) i (t ) , ..
(t ) =

i (t ) .

(6.10)

i =1

f (t )
f (t ) = P(t )

f (t )

Pii (t ) ,

(6.11)

i =1

fi (t ) i- .
mt
1

1
mt = i , i =

i =1

i (t ) dt ,

(6.12)

t .
, .. , (6.9) (6.12)
Ps (t ) = e t ,

P(t0 , t0 + ) = e t ;
n

i ;

(6.13)

i =1

1
.

2. . , . . () . 6.10.
f (t ) = e t , mt =

Ps (t ) = 1

(1 pi (t )) ,

(6.14)

i =1

, .. p1 (t ) = ... = p N (t ) = p(t ) ,
Ps (t ) = 1 (1 pi (t ))N .

( , , )

Ps (t ) = p1 (t ) + p 2 (t ) p1 (t ), p 2 (t ) .
(. 6.10, ) p(t ) = e t ( ) N 1

R1
I

R2

RN

)
. 6.10.

(t )2 + ... + (t )N 1 e t .
Ps (t ) = 1 + t +

2!
(N 1)!

(6.15)

, , , .
( )
, , . 6.11, , .

Ps (t ) = p R1 (t ) p R 2 (t ) + p R 3 (t ) p R1 (t ) p R 2 (t ) p R 3 (t ) .

, . . 6.12, , .

Ps (t ) = ( pC1 (t ) + pC 2 (t ) pC1 (t ) pC 2 (t )) pC 3 (t ) .

. 6.11.

. 6.12.

)
. 6.13. :
; ;

,
.
P(t )
P (t ) . , . (. 6.13).
. 6.13,
Po (t ) = (1 p o1 (t )) (1 p o2 (t )) = p o1 (t ) + p o2 (t ) p o1 (t ) p o2 (t ).

. 6.13, P (t ) = p1 (t ) p2 (t ) .
, P (t )
PS (t ) = Po (t )P (t ) = ( po1 (t ) + po2 (t ) po1 (t ) po2 (t )) p1 (t ) p2 (t ) .

,
. . 6.14.
.
2

II

O
O

. 6.14.

( )
P(S ) =

P(H i ) P(S

Hi ) ,

(6.16)

i =1

N ; P(H i ) H i ; P(S H i ) S ( I O ) H i .
(. 6.14)
, 5, :
H1 5 ;
H 2 5 .

H1 P(H1 ) = P(5) , H 2

P(H1 ) = 1 P(5) .
P(S ) = P(5)P(S H1 ) + (1 P(5)) P(S H 2 ) .

P(S H1 ) 1, . 6.15 ( 5 ).

P(S H1 ) = (P(1)+ P(2 ) P(1) P(2 ))(P(3)+ P(4) P(3) P (4)) .

. 6.15. 1

. 6.16. 2

P(S H 2 ) 2, . 6.16 ( 5 ),
P(S H 2 ) = P(1) P(4 ) + P(2 ) P(3) P(1) P(4 ) P(2 ) P(3) .
, (. 6.11)
P(S ) = P(S ) (P(1) + P (2) P(1) P(2 )) (P (3) + P(4) P(3) P(4 )) +
+ (1 P (S )) (P(1) P(4 ) + P(2 )P(3) P (1) P (4) P (2)P (3)).

6.9.

:
;
;
;
.
. 6.17.

,
,

. 6.17.

, .
.

1. , .. / .. , .. , ..
. Academia, 2007. 368 .
2. , .. : / ..
, .. -. . : . . , 1984.
3. , .. / .. . . :
, 1982.
4. , .. : . / ..
, .. , .. ; . .. . . : , 1984.
5. , .. / .. , .. . . : , 1968.
6. , .. / .. ,
.. . . : , 1976.
7. , .. / .. . . : , 1972.
8. ; . .. / . ., 1996.


1. .
1.1. .
1.2. ..
1.3. .
1.4. .
1.5. ..

3
3
3
6
10
13
16

2. .
2.1. .
2.2. .
2.3.
..
2.4.

23
23
29

3. .
3.1.
4. ..

44
44
45

4.1.
-
4.2.

35
37

45
49

5. .
5.1. .
5.2. ..

51
51
52

6. .
6.1.
6.2.
6.3. ..
6.4.
6.5. ..
6.6. .
6.7. ..
6.8.
.
6.9. .

56
56
59
64
67
67
67
71

80

72
78