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" Gold News", "Annual Review of the


World Gold Industry"
Consolidated

Gold

Shearson

Lehman,

Fields, " Metall Bulletin",

(World Gold Council),

(),

"Gold"

"Economist",

"Euromoney",

"Financial Times", "Forbes", "The Wall Street Joumal".


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The Privateer, Great Pacific Trading, Blanchard & Co .


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12 Gold As Reserve Asset. World Gold CouncU. - Geneva. 1999. P. 1,2


16

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1998


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1998-99 ( %
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3.


4.


5.
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6.


7.

69%

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80%

67%

76%

70%

77%

76%

56%

73%

66%

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77%

81%

51%

74%

75%

87%

69%

88%

87%

85%

69%

88%

87%

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* - , .
; Gold Reserves and Public Confidence. World Gold Council.- Geneva. July
1999.


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^ GPTC Stratagems. Great Pacific Trading Company. Grants Pass, Oregon. 1998. P. 3
19

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135000 . ^^

2% .^^ 1


. ^^

14 Guide to Investing in Gold. World Gold Council. - Geneva. 1999. P. 5.


15 A Guide to Investing in Gold. World Gold Council. - Geneva. 1999. P. 5.
1^ GPTC Stratagems. Great Pacific Trading Company, Grants Pass, Oregon. 19'
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20 Market Alert. Blanchard and Company, Inc. - New Orleans. 1999. P. 2


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1987 , 21
78%.

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( S&P 500)
( Lehman Brothers
Aggregate)

1987

1997 .^^

: -,

22 Gold PortfoUo Letter, No. 2. World Gold CouncU. - Geneva. October 1997
27

, -,

.
, ,

S&P 500.^^

; ,

S&P 500

S&P 500

.
-,

. ,
,

3-4%

S&P 500 ,
,
- .
-,

( S&P 500).

23 Gold PortfoHo Letter, No. 3. World Gold Council. - Geneva. November 1997
28

"-" 82,4% S&P 500 17,6%


. ,

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13,6%. "-"
, "-".
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"-" 12%.

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Markets)

S&P 500)

( Emerging

0,40. S&P
500 ; , 0,50.

S&P 500 (-0,30), Emerging Markets (-0,07).

,
0,60,

24 Gold Portfolio Letter, No. 4. World Gold Council. - Geneva. January 1998
30

2. ,
1987-1997 .
,

,

-0,18

-0,07

0,35

-0,29

0,40

-0,15

-0,22

0,09

0,23

0,30

0,28

0,01

0,19

-0,30

-0,05

0,47

0,50

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0,04


. S&P 500

-0,18

-0,07

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0,35

0,09

0,01

-0,29

0,23

0,19

0,47

0,40

0,30

-0,30

0,50

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-0,15

0,28

-0,05

-0,11

0,04

S&P 500
3-.
-
.

3-. -

-0,02

-0,02

: Gold Portfolio Letter, No. 4. World Gold Council. - Geneva. January 1998.
3. S&P 500
1987-1997 .

1 S&P500

-0,04
-0,10
-0,10
0,05
-0,23
0,01
-0,07
0,04
-0,13
0,01
0,08
-0,03
-0,08
-0.03
-0,30

-0,04
0,37
0,05
0,13
0,37
0,08
0,11
0,59
0,40
0,37
0,28
0,89
0,57
-0,10
0,34


-0,10
0,37
-

0,16
0,74
0,51
0,08
0,14
0,34
0,68
0,22
0,30
0,27
0,33
-0,11
0,37

S&P500
-0,30
0,34
0,37
0,15
0,10
0,33
0,05
-0,08
-0,57
0,48
0,36
0,29
0,20
0,46
-0,04

: Gold Portfolio Letter, No. 4. World Gold Council. - Geneva. January 1998.
31

( 51,2% 3 3 % )

( 27% 80%
).2^
,

, ,
.
.

,

, .. . ,

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,
.

January
32

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,

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, (

),

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,
. ,
14,41% ,
14,30%.

33

4.
( 1990 . 199^

55%
70%
( S&P 500)

5%
0
(Treasury 5)


30%
25%
( Lehman Brothers Aggregate)

10%
0
( Ibbotson Small Cap)
0

5%
100%
100%



8,5%
8,5%
14,30%
14,41%

1,28
1,29
/*

* / = ( - )/
.

,
,

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) (
).

. ,

34

*j

5.

1990

1998

'

5.
1990 1998 ).

^1

.

( S&P 500)


(.
IbbotsonSmallCap)

, . .
.
(LehmanBrosAggregate)
.

(Treasury )


. . .
.

50%

11,6%

0,99

17,39%

0,31%

17,70%

10%

18,9%

0,76

16,87%

1,23%

18,10%

5%

10,9%

-0,47

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0,78%

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30%

4,6%

0,55

8,62%

-0,04%

8,58%

5%

0,7%

0,12

4,77%

-0,05%

4,72%

100%

7,7%

1,00

13,10%

0.30%

13,40%

: Gold Portfolio Letter, No.8. World Gold Council. - Geneva. March 1999.

35

0,30%.

0,15%

50 %, 0,04 % , 5 %.
,

2,5

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26 : Gold Investment Products. World Gold Council. - Geneva. 1999


38

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42


,
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XAU ( ,
, )

S&P 500

1993

1997

0,12.-^

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14 :

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500 6% XAU.
19
.
, S&P 500
XAU

.
, (

XAU)

.
1987 1997 XAU 5 8
S&P500.
,
,

27 Gold: Has its time finally come? The Privateer Gold Pages. - Washington D.C. 1997. P. 14
28 Gold; H a s its time finally c o m e ? T h e Privateer G o l d Pages. - W a s h i n g t o n D . C . 1997. P . 15
43

.
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48

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8,

11

16

6.
1948 1996 .

/ 1948
07/ 1950
12/ 1953
12/ 1957
12/ 1969
12/ 1971
/ 1978
06/ 1982
/ 1983
01/ 1985
07/ 1986
06/ 1989
06/ 1990
11/1992
08/ 1994
01/ 1995
11^1995


11
5

.
()
(%)
(%)
31.0
31
0.7
43
20.5
1.3
63
17.5
0.6
29.3
331
0.7
64
45.7
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124.6
349
4.2
372
186.0
201
223.0
1.8
26
65.0
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35.7
0.8
25
159.2
0.9
191
1.7
55
78.6
0.5
36
120.0
112.7
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124
260.0
0.6
26
70.0
0.3
35
45
150.0
0.3
+ 119 %
101.7 %
0.9 ()
+ 105%
106.2 %
0.9 ()
+ 41 %
0.7 ()
81.3 %
+ 247 %
129.8 %
1.3 ()


1.0
11/1949
08/1952
2.1
3.6
06/1957
11.3
03/1969
04/1971
1.4
08/1974
2.8
10/1980
2.0
05/1983
0.9
0.4
03/1984
0.7
08/1985
09/1987
1.2
01/1990
0.7
0.3
08/1990
01/1994
1.1
09/1994
0.1
07/1995
0.5
02/1996
0.3
17
1.8
16 . ()
1.2
.
1.0
, 1
1.6

:
(A) 4 11,3 16 ,
1,2 .
, . 16
2 :
. 25-66%, 5
- 124-372%.
(B)
, ..
.
(C) 7 .
: The Privateer Gold Pages. Washington D.C, 1997.

. , ,

45

.
,

19

.
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1997

200
.

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1997 -

PDC

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1997

46

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Exchange ())

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.
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12

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100 16 1994 .

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30 Gold Portfolio Letter, No. 6. World Gold Council. - Geneva. August 1998
54

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(
1982-1997 ., 1997
).

(
)
1 -97
1 -97
lb -97
1 -97
2 -97
3 -97
4 -97
5 -97
5 -97

10/01/97
31/01/97
10/02/97
21/02/97
23/04/97
12/05/97
25/08/97
03/09/97
25/09/97

26/02/97
26/02/97
26/02/97
26/02/97
05/05/97
15/05/97
01/09/97
03/11/97
01/10/97

93%
87%
80%
87%
80%
87%

80%
80%
87%

(.)
1802,86
1502,31
1330.00
1
957,69
706,67
382,31
549,17
1258,33
629,23

(.)
(2340,00)

(1040,00)
(673,33)
(515,00)
(376,67)
(225,00)
(330,00)

(660,00)
(60,00)

: GPTC Stratagems. Great Pacific Trading Company. Grants Pass, Oregon. 1998.
,

,
.

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,

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,
57

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31 GPTC Stratagems. Great Pacific Trading Company. Grants Pass, Oregon. 1998. P. 10.
61

30 ,

15 .

8.
1981-1996 (
).

()
12/31/81
12/30/82
12/30/83
01/02/85
12/31/85
12/31/86
12/30/87
12/30/88
01/02/90
12/31/90
12/30/91
12/30/92
12/30/93
12/30/94
01/02/96

()
384
392.6
399,5
279,2
346,2
476,2
500,4
515,6
482,2
414,0
336,1
353.5
397,5
421,2
408,3

()
410,4
459,6
394,4
308,1
334,9
410,6
49L4
417,4
407,1
399,7
356,2
334,4

393,8
388,4
393,9

()
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5,1
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1U
65,6
9.0
98,2
75^
14.3
L
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19

.
32,8
14,4

()
02/12/82
02/15/83
02/15/84
02/15/85
02/14/86
02/13/87
02/12/88
02/15/89
02/15/90
02/15/91
02/14/92
02/12/93
02/15/94
02/15/95
02/15/96

()
370,6
484,2

393,4
279,2
369,7
510
468,5
536,2
522,9
385,2
363.5
I
368,6
404.0
1

413,9

424,2

()
384,9
511.5
i
385,7
306,9
1
336,2

()
-14.3
-27,3

L1

-27,7

448,7
388,2
L
416,2
366,1
355.1
1

33.5
L
109,4
19,8
148.0
106,7
19,1
8.4

330,0

38.6

385,5
378,6
405,7

18,5
35,3
18,5

400,7

()
1200,00
3970,00
260,00
120,00
2220.00

4380,00
1080,00
4980,00
3160,00
480,00
2850,00
1950,00
1480,00
250,00
410,00

(590,00)

1410,00
5520.00
980,00

(770,00)
(270,00)

330,00
2220,00

(560,00)

5810,00
1560,00
4980,00
1
3160,00
1960.00
3170,00
1960,00
1480.00
650,00
930,00
:.

(960,00)

(1100,00)
(280,00)
(70,00)

(650,00)
(630,00)
(130,00)

100%
1919,33
1100,00
400,67 .



,
,

:
.

,

. 1
2
.
2
1 15
. " "/"
" /

.
: GPTC Stratagems. Great Pacific Trading Company. Grants Pass, Oregon. 1998.

. ,

62


,
.

}-L.

,
.
,

.
,
, .

,
.

63

III. *

; .

,
. ,
5>
, .

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,

10 ,

64

5 ( 2500 )^^

. , ,

.

,

.
,
, .
:

,
.


-
.

. ,
,

32 Gold Flash. World Gold Council. - Geneva. May 12, 1998. P. 2.


65

, .

10%

. , 10
4000 . 65%
. ^^
1971
,


, .
,
.
, ,
.
>1 1>1

33 Gold Rash. World Gold . - Geneva. May 12, 1998. P. 1


66

. - , ,


- .

,
,

.
,
.

, ,
.


(World Gold Council)

-
.
, , 80%
.-^^

, ..

, , / ,

34 The World Gold Annual Report. World Gold Council. - Geneva. 1997. P. 1
67

.). ,

.
,^^ 1970-
0,1% -
( ). 1976
, 1979 ,
, 5%.
1996
0,1% .

- 1999 ,

2000 .

(

35 Varying Public Interest in Gold. The Privateer Gold Pages. - Washington D.C. 1997. P. 1.
68

,
.
,

. , ,

, , .

, ,

69

,
, ,
. ,
-

, . .

,
.
,

, .
,
.. ,
- .
. 1
3 4, , ,

9.^^

..

36 : Gold: Supply, Demand, Price and Research.


Annual Report. CPM Group. - Washington D.C. 1997.
70

9
, ,

, .. ,
,

,

<j

\j

,
.

, ,
:
.

, ,

.
64%
,
- - 32%.
71

,
, .
, , ,

_^.

,
"".

, ..
.

.
,

""

, ,
,

. ,
.

72

10

.
, ,
,
, , 15
45% , ; .
1981

, . ,

KJ

,
.
,
.
,

1981

13,7%

. ..
, ,

.
IIL3 .

30 : 35
1960- 850
80- 260 90-.
73

9.
( 1979-1998 ., ).

1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
1987
1986
1985
1984
1983
1982
1981
1980
1979

314,60
362,15
414,80
399,55
402,00
414,00
359,60
403,00
423,75
415,80
483,90
499,74
438,35
340,90
460,44
509,25
481,00
599,25
850,00
512,00

273,40
283,00
367,40
372,40
370,00
325,00
330,35
344,24
345,65
355,75
395,30
390,00
326,55
284,25
307,50
374,25
296,75
391,25
481,50
216,85

294,09
322,58
387,87
383,79
386,00
361,00
343,76
362,19
383,47
381,44
436,93
446,45
397,87
317,26
405,85
424,18
375,79
459,71
612,56
306,68

:
- - 452
- - 342
- - 391
- - 32%
( )
: .

10.
.

1971
1976
1985
1982
1993




1974
35
1980
102
1987
282

1983
296
325
1993


195
850
497
510
407

: .

74

1.
( 1979-1998 ., . 1>
900 .

800

700

600

500

400

300

200 -

100

00

GO

-+ ^

<>

UJ
00

Maximim

1^

00

01

Average

75

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on

, .
/1 ,
/ /
/

.
-,
, .

,
. ,
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. ,
,
.


76

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.

1930- ,
1970- . ,

.
, -,
,


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.
, ,

, ,

,
,

*

1>/

.
, ,
-
5
. /

77

,
.

1971
, ,

. , ,
529 (17
), .
1967-1968, 1973-1974, 1979-1980, 1986-1987 1993 . ,
,
.

, .
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90 100. ,

, .

,
,

- . ,
, 1973-1974 1979-1980 ,
.
78

""
.

,
.

0,05

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,

KI

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.

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30

,

.
.
, 1969

300 5 ,
90% ,

79

,
. ^^
1 1975 42

).

, .
. -, 18

1974 , 103 . -, ,

, ,

. 1979
,
.
1978
1974 (195 ).

1979 250

, - 300 , - 400 .
,
381 1 1979 5 850 21
1980 . , 1975 ,
.
1979 21

Owning Gold. Califomia


80

1980 .

1975

.

*

: . 1980
20% (

1980

1981

.
- 1982
,

: . -
776 1982 1100 1983
.
: 296 1982 510

1983 105 . , , 1100.


.
.
1971 ""
400 . 1983
1,25 . ""

400

1971
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81

1983
ft

II

. ,

. ,

.


, , .

1960-

70-

,
. 1980-
.

- .

. -,

. -,

.

(Ml, 2, ,
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, , ,
.

82

. 1960

. ,
,
.

. , ,
.
1971
(), "
". ,
. 30 ,

.

, ,
.


.


, .

.
, , ,

83

,
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, 30 3
(

10%

),

, ( )

1%

38

.
11.
1990-1997 . ( ).

1990
1992
1994
1996
1997

261,8
261,7
261,7
261,9
261,7

24,2
24,2
24,2
24,2

24,2

1,7

L7
L6
LZ
LZ

81,9

81,9
81,9
81,9
81,9

95,2
95,2
95,2

95,2
95,2

3,4
3,4
3,5
3,5

3^

66,7
66,7
66,7
66,7
66,7

L2

1,2
1,2
1,2
1,2

15,6
15,6
15,6

15,6
15,6

83,3
83,3
83,3
83,3
83,3

18,6
18,4

18,4

18,9
18,4

14,8
9,9
3,9
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3,1
3,1

7,9
7,9
13
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2,6
7,9
18,3
10,7
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20,4
19^
10,1
25,0
25,0

30,2
15J
15,3
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34,8
34,8
27,1
43,9
43,9
15,8
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15,8
16,1
16,1
14,0
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6
4,8
4,8

6,1
6,1
730.4
-7,9%
764,3
746,1
793,1
782,4
.
-3,8%
1143,8 1129,9 1115,8 1104,9 1099,5

* , , .
: International Monetary Fund, Group. Washington D.C. 1999.
38 Gold Portfolio Letter, No. 5. World Gold Council. - Geneva. March 1998. P. 1
84

12.

*
-11%
-26%
-31%
-32%
-31%
-23%
-26%
-26%

-79%
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-58%
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-27%
-48%

12
9
19
19
19
10
9

* .
: International Monetary Fund, Group. Washington D.C. 1999.
Ha 11

12

-,

48%.

9-19


26%. .. 1%
0,5%. -,

,
.
-,

, 3,8%.
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,
.

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1995

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86

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.

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. ^^
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,
.

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,


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.
87

. ,
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.
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.
89

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.

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.

1995
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1994
375 395 (

1997 , 400

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, ,

1994 ,
1995 ,
).

90

1997-1999

.
1997 - ;
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, ,
.

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. , ,
,

1930- ,
, .
, 300
1979 (289,90 ).

1998

91

50


.
. , ,
, -
.



.
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; ,
5

.
1998 ,
.
,

2000 .

,

:
,

92


, ,
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,
.

, 19 (273,40
).

: 1999

20 (253 ).
, ,

1300

,
,
. ,

, , ,
t

.
(
)
93

( 400 5 ),
.

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,

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- .
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300
,
.
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.
94

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97

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98

IIL5.2. .

500

1998 ^^ ,

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( 1492 (2400
1998 )).

,
,
.
.
, ,
,
. 1919

612 ,

(639

).

, 1934
^^ : Possible Gold Price Scenario. Joseph M. . The Privateer Gold
Pages. - Washington D.C, 1998.
99

1971 .

,
.

,
(627 ).
, ,
,
.

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, 2 4
.
,
:
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2 1 1960-
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100

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.
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1987 ,

.
51,

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.
,

1000-1200

, ."^^

^^ Possible Gold Price Scenario. Joseph M. Miller. The Privateer Gold Pages. - Washington
D.C. 1998. P. 4.
101

IV.
.

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,
.

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.
,
2500 - 3000 ,


.

1980- - 1990- ,


( 1990 270 , 1991

170

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102

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,
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1994 ,
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103

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, ,
.

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.

1998

107

51

,
. .

1999 ,
.
,

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1998 ,

.

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.

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,
108

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2001 - 2005 .
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109

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).

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1998 ), ,
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.
,
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.
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121



.
, ,

,

. ,
,


.

, ,
,

122

1. .. . - .: , 1975.
2. -. : . - .:
, 1978.
3. .. : . - 2 .,
. . - ,: , 1988.
4. . .

. - //

. - .: , 1991,
5- .

.: , 1968.
6. .

2 ., . . - .: , 1984.
7. . : , , , ...
. - .: -, 1997,
8. ..

. - .: , 1967.
9. . / .
.. - .: , 1977.
10.

..

. - .: , 1994.
12.

./ . .. - .: , 1978.
13. . - .: -, 1996.
14. ..
. - .: - . . .^ 1997.

123

13. ..
. - .: , 1979.
16.

..

.:

. - .: , 1975.
17.

. .

.: , 1974.
18.

.. . -

.: - . .: , 1984.
19. .. -
. - .;
. - .: , 1983.
20. .. ,
. - .: , 1968.
21. Beale R. Trading in Gold Futures. - Cambridge: Woodhead - Faulkner, 1985.
22. Craig M, Making Money from Gold. - Berkshire: Scope Books, 1982.
23.

Gero G.

Precious

Metals. A Guide

to

Trading

and

Investing.

Secaucus, NJ.; Lyle Stuart, 1985.


24. Gold. / Ed. by Samoff P. - London: Euromoney Publ., 1987.,
25. Nichols J. The Complete Book of Gold Investing. - Homewood, .:
Dow Jones - Irwin, 1987.
26. Rosen L.R. When and How to Profit from Buying and Selling Gold. Homewood, .: Dow Jones - Irwin, 1975.
27. Samoff P. Trading in Gold. - Cambridge: Woodhead - Faulkner, 1980.
28. Sinclair J., Schultz H. How the Experts Buy and Sell Gold Bullion,
Gold Stocks and Gold Coins. - New York: ArHngton House, 1975.
29. Weston R. Gold: A World Survey. - London: Croom Hehn, 1983,
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:
30. . - .; . 1974-1999.
31. . - .: . 1982-1999.
32. . - .: .
1971-1999.
33. / The Financial Times. - .: . 1997-1999.
34. Annual Report. CPM Group. - Washington D.C. 1996 - 1999.
35. Annual Report. International Monetary Fund. - Washington D.C. 1996 - 1999.
36. CaUfomia Numismatic Investments. - Inglewood, CaUfomia. 1997-1999.
37. Forbes. - New York. 1997-1999.
38. Gold As A Reserve Asset. World Gold Council. - Geneva. 1997-1999.
39. Gold Hash. World Gold Councu. - Geneva. 1997-1999.
40. Gold Investment Products. World Gold Council. - Geneva. 1997-1999.
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42. Gold Portfolio Letter. World Gold Council. - Geneva. 1997-1999.
43. GPTC Stratagems. Great Pacific Trading Company. - Grants Pass, Oregon.
1997-1999.
44. Market Alert. Blanchard and Company, Inc. - New Orleans, Louisiana.
1997-1999.
45. The Privateer Gold Pages. The Privateer. - Washington D.C. 1997-1999.
46. The Wall Street Journal. - New York. 1997-1999.

125