DATOS CENSALES

AO
URBANA
1940
1961
1972
1981
1993
2007

34517
37247
41607
61812
67858
71707

POBLACION
RURAL

TOTAL
34517
37247
41607
61812
67858
71707

METODO LOGARITMICO:

AO
1940
1961
1972
1981
1993
2007

POBLACIN
34517
37247
41607
61812
67858
71707

P P r ln t

La formula a usar:

AOS
POBLACIN
1940
34517
1961
37247

r(%)
21

AOS
896.6923568

1961
1972

2045.741568

1961
1981

7350.066058

1961
1993
1961
2005

1940
1972

34517
41607

1940
1981

34517
61812

1940
1993

34517
67858

53

8397.6193

1940
2007

34517
71707

67

8844.879606

32

41

El r(%) promedio:rp=(r1*t1+r2*t3++rn*tn)/ (t1+t2tn)

6854.326564

Entonces la ecuaci para estimar esta poblacin por este metodo es:

P
MTODO ACTUALUSADO POR EL INEI

ECUACION CARTACTERISTICA:

6144 1

2.55

100

6144 713.1878052 ln t

POBLACIN

r(%)

37247
41607

11

1818.261227

37247
61812

20

8199.99845

37247
67858

32

8832.467579

37247
71707

44

9106.308968

6144 713.1878052 ln t

AOS

POBLACIN

r(%)

1972
1981

41607
61812

9195.691787

1972
1993

41607
67858

21

8622.370351

1972
2005

41607
71707

33

8608.589992

AOS

POBLACIN
1981
61812
1993
67858
1981
2005

61812
71707

r(%)

AOS

12

2433.089388

24

3113.540716

1993
2005

POBLACIN
67858
71707

r(%)
12

1548.951547

METODO GEOMETRICO

p P 1r

METODO DE INTERES SIMPLE

Combinaciones
AOS
Pob: Pa
1940
34517
1961
37247

p P 1rt
f

Met. Geometrico
Met. Int. Simple
rg(%)
ri(%)

t
21

0.36313129

0.37662601

AOS
1961
1972

Pob: Pa
37247
41607

1940
1972

34517
41607

32

0.5855089

0.64189385

1961
1981

37247
61812

1940
1981

34517
61812

41

1.43123218

1.92870675

1961
1993

37247
67858

1940
1993

34517
67858

53

1.28357428

1.82250912

1961
2005

37247
71707

1940
2007

34517
71707

67

1.09722421

1.60811956

Calculo de la tasa de crecimiento geometrico poblacional global

rg=(r1*r2*r3*..rn)^1/n
rg(%)

1.18285105

71707

Pf
100

1.18285105

Frmula de poblacion futura por el Metodo Geometrico:

Calculo de la tasa de crecimiento de interes simple poblacional global ri=(r1*t1+r2*t3++rn*tn)/ (t1+t2tn)

ri(%)

1.80481901

Frmula de poblacion futura por el Metodo Interes Simple:

1.80481901 t
71707 1

100

1.18285105
71707 1

100

Met. Geometrico
Met. Interes Simple
r(%)
ri(%)
AOS
1972
11 1.01141712 1.06414916
1981

Pob: Pa
41607
61812

Met. Geometrico
r(%)

t
9

4.49625118

20

2.56497414

3.29758101

1972
1993

41607
67858

21

2.3566199

32

1.89219777

2.56824375

1972
2005

41607
71707

33

1.663133

44

1.49981088

2.10267087

2*t3++rn*tn)/ (t1+t2tn)

1.80481901 t
71707 1

100

Met. Interes Simple

ri(%)
AOS
1981
5.39572668
1993

Pob: Pa
61812
67858

1981
2005

61812
71707

3.00441661

2.19223018

Met. Geometrico
Met. Interes Simple
r(%)
ri(%)
AOS
1993
12 0.78069638 0.81510602
2005

24

0.62062986

0.6670091

Pob: Pa
67858
71707

Met. Geometrico
Met. Interes Simple
r(%)
ri(%)

t
12

0.46081756

0.47267824

METODO PARABOLICO
Para este metodo en total haremos 20 condiciones:
Ao

x^2

Ypob

YI
1940
1961
1972

0
21
32

0
441
1024

34517
37247
41607

34517 -44.8011364

8.32386364

1940
1961
1981

0
21
41

0
441
1681

34517
37247
61812

34517 -432.518293

26.7865854

1940
1961
1993

0
21
53

0
441
2809

34517
37247
67858

34517 -197.518278

15.5961085

1940
1961
2005

0
21
65

0
441
4225

34517
37247
71707

34517

-81.027972

10.048951

1940
1972
1981

0
32
41

0
1024
1681

34517
41607
61812

34517 -1357.70579

49.3521341

1940
1972
1993

0
32
53

0
1024
2809

34517
41607
67858

34517 -399.409647

19.4053796

1940
1972
2005

0
32
65

0
1024
4225

34517
41607
71707

34517 -118.404866

10.6239802

Y2

Y3

Y4

Y5

Y6

Y7

Y8

1940
1981
1993

0
41
53

0
1681
2809

34517
61812
67858

34517

790.973846

-3.0546863

1940
1981
2005

0
41
65

0
1681
4225

34517
61812
71707

34517

825.593887 -3.89907755

Y10
1940
1993
2005

0
53
65

0
2809
4225

34517
67858
71707

34517

880.479318

-4.7434688

Y11
1961
1972
1981

0
11
20

0
121
400

37247
41607
61812

37247 -620.386364

92.4318182

Y12
1961
1972
1993

0
11
32

0
121
1024

37247
41607
67858

37247

102.909767

26.6776245

Y13
1961
1981
1993

0
20
32

0
400
1024

37247
61812
67858

37247

1681.01042 -22.6380208

Y14
1961
1981
2005

0
20
44

0
400
1936

37247
61812
71707

37247

1599.14015 -18.5445076

Y15
1961
1972
2005

0
11
44

0
121
1936

37247
41607
71707

37247

267.424242

Y16
1961
1993

0
32

0
1024

37247
67858

37247

1419.02557 -14.4509943

Y9

11.7217631

2005

44

1936

71707

Y17
1972
1981
1993

0
9
21

0
81
441

41607
61812
67858

41607

2991.21429 -82.9126984

Y18
1972
1981
2005

0
9
33

0
81
1089

41607
61812
71707

41607

2744.82955 -55.5366162

Y19
1972
1993
2005

0
21
33

0
441
1089

41607
67858
71707

41607

1841.41883 -28.1605339

Y20
1981
1993
2005

0
12
24

0
144
576

61812
67858
71707

61812

595.375 -7.62847222

CORRECCIONES EN BASE 2005

AO

1940

poblacion
0
21
32
41
53
65

1961
1972
1981
1993
2005
sumatoria

Y1

34517
34517
37247
37247
41607
41607
61812 46672.5682
67858 55524.2727
71707
66773.25
314748 282341.091

1961

-65
-44
-33
-24
-12
0

Y2

72597.3977
34517
52603.25
37247
45060.125
48105.878
40386.7727
61812
36253.25 86837.0488
34517 119576.634
281417.795 388095.561

32406.9091
33330.2045
65737.1136

Diferencia:

AO
1940

correc. 2005Pob.correg.2005

t
-21

poblacion
34517

37247

Y11
correc. 2005Pob.correg.2005Y12
91037.5455
-65 468096.545 46850.7273
37247

-44

243492

37247

1972
1981
1993
2005
sumatoria

11
20
32
44

41607
41607
61812
61812
67858 112044.818
71707
188898
314748 532646.364

t
-32
-11

1972

0
9
21
33

1981
1993
2005
sumatoria

poblacion
Y17
correc. 2005Pob.correg.2005Y18
34517 -139014.46
-65 -503128.079 -103097.04
37247 -1328.79365
-44 -250525.413 4693.94444
41607
41607
61812
61812
67858
67858
71707 50025.1429
314748 80958.8889

Diferencia:
suma:

AO
1940
1961
1972

1981
1993
2005
sumatoria

158378
41607
105377 49976.2451
58001.8182
67858
37247 93422.9107
1070592.36 336961.883

-217898.364
-755844.364
-973742.727

Diferencia:
suma:

AO
1940
1961

-33
-24
-12
0

poblacion
-41
34517
-20
37247
-9
41607
0
12
24

-33
-147395
41607
-24 -77939.8571
61812
-12
-6227 74756.7727
0
41607
71707
-943608.35 151479.677
233789.111
1258356.35
1492145.46

Y20
correc. 2005Pob.correg.2005
24578.1632
-65 -9117.67014
46853.1111
-44 20846.7778
55835.7188
-33 33857.2188

61812
61812
67858
67858
71707
71707
314748 328643.993

-24
-12
0

43129
53569
61812
204096.326

-13895.9931
110651.674
96755.6806

Diferncia:
Suma:
Eligiendo la ecuacion final:

37247 1681.01042 t 22.638021 t

Pf 41607 2991.21429t 82.912698t

AO
0
21
32
41
53
65
72
77
82
87
90

1940
1961
1972
1981
1993
2007
2012
2017
2022
2027
2030

POBLACIN Y1
34517
37247
41607
61812
67858
71707
77334
87710
99478
112825
121678
813771

34517
37247
41607
46673
55524
66773
74442.2273
80419.5
86812.9659
93622.625
97908.1932

Y2
34517
37247
48106
61812
86837
119577
142237.341
160030.756
179163.5
199635.573
212561.695

Y3

Y4
34517
37247
44167
52636
67858
87572

34517
37247
42214
48087
58450
71707

,,,,,

*******

**********

correc. 2005Pob.correg.2005
-65
-44
-33
-24
-12
0

Y3

175804.012
34517
105406.634
37247
77960.6951 44166.8302
60326.5122
52635.809
43564.4878
67858
34517 87571.8703
497579.341 323996.509

-73347.561
-182831.341
-256178.902

correc. 2005Pob.correg.2005
-65
-44
-33
-24
-12
0

Y4

113249.246
34517
73401.8703
37247
58019.2653 42214.2308
48240.7972 48087.1399
39133.059
58450.021
34517
71707
366561.238 292222.392

-9248.50943
-51813.2382
-61061.7476

correc. 2005
-65
-44
-33
-24
-12
0
22525.6084
13132.8811
35658.4895

correc. 2005Pob.correg.2005Y13
correc. 2005Pob.correg.2005Y14
correc. 2005
-65 143270.828 -8037.58594
-65 -167664.315 -4513.07102
-65
-44

84366.8512

37247

-44 -80544.6667

37247

-44

-33
-24
-12
0

62902.9107 52998.9141
50143.4773
61812
39853.6607
67858
37247
67384.25
417784.728 279262.578

-22213.8831
-103036.728
-125250.611

-33 -42879.1484 52593.6563

-24
-16136.75
61812
-12
13815 69429.9091
0
37247
71707
-256162.88 288276.494
35485.4219
570910.88
606396.302

correc. 2005Pob.correg.2005Y19
correc. 2005Pob.correg.2005
-65 -371449.124 -46154.7893
-65 -197063.48
-44 -186684.389 17943.9683
-44 -93934.2222
-33
-24
-12
0

-109451.75
41607
-56258 55898.7662
671.772727
67858
41607
71707
-681564.49 208859.945

163268.323
996312.49
1159580.81

1681.01042 t 22.638021 t

2991.21429 t 82.912698t

-33 -49826.6429
-24 -18807.5195
-12 15454.8571
0
41607
-302570.01
105888.055
617318.007
723206.062

-33
-24
-12
0
26471.5057
523712.672
550184.178

Y5

Y6
34517
27769
41607
61812
101189
154779

Y7

Y8

34517
34687
41607
50762
67858
90543

34517
36716
41607
47521
58084
71707

Y9
34517
49780
56700
61812
67858
73024

Y10
34517
50135
56943
61812
67321
71707

Y11
34517
50915
57835
62643
67858
71707

91038
37247
41607
61812
112045
188898

80000

250000

70000

200000

60000

150000

50000

100000
Y

40000

Y17

30000
20000
10000
0
1920

POBLACIN

POBLACIN

METODO GRAFICO

50000
0
1920
-50000

-100000
1940

1960

1980
AOS

2000

2020

-150000

-200000
Y
Y7
Y14

Pob.correg.2005

Y5

82240.6364
34517
57537 27769.4695
48134.2308
41607
42249.8671
61812
36936.3846 101188.738
34517
154778.89
301615.119 421673.098

correc. 2005
-65
-44
-33
-24
-12
0

Y6
331280.643
34517
189801.787 34687.1698
133065.765
41607
95528.7683 50761.6476
57916.1768
67858
34517 90543.1018
842110.14 319973.919

-106925.098
-527362.14
-634287.238

correc. 2005 Pob.correg.2005

-65
-44
-33
-24
-12
0

142466.356
89659.8394
68829.9768
55280.3302
42104.2904
34517
432857.793

-5225.91914
-118109.793
-123335.712

Pob.correg.2005
Y15
correc. 2005Pob.correg.2005
Y16
correc. 2005Pob.correg.2005
-145047.654 36800.3884
-65 69388.8733 1074.57457
-65 -116045.113
-69017.3333

37247

-44

48173.6667

37247

-44

-53167.25

-35719.5938
-11814
15386.9091
37247
-208964.67

41607
47284.1901
57807.6612
71707
292453.24

-33
-24
-12
0
22294.7603
45445.0634
67739.8237

41187 51107.7109
37580.5537 59847.1136
35725.843
67858
37247
71707
269302.937 288841.399

-33 -25317.9766
-24 -5133.38636
-12
18137.75
0
37247
-144278.98
25906.6009
459026.976
484933.577

Y12

Y13

Y14

34517
37247
48106
61812
86837
119577

-8038
37247
52999
61812
67858
67384

Y15
-4513
37247
52594
61812
69430
71707

Y16
36800
37247
41607
47284
57808
71707

Y17
1075
37247
51108
59847
67858
71707

Y18
-139014
-1329
41607
61812
67858
50025

-103097
4694
41607
61812
74757
71707

METODO GRAFICO

200000
150000
100000

50000
0
1920
-50000

1940

1960

1980

2000

2020

-100000
-150000

-200000
Y

Y1

Y2

Y3

Y4

Y5

Y6

Y7

Y8

Y9

Y10AO

Y11

Y12

Y13

Y14

Y15

Y16

Y17

Y18

Y19

Y20

200000
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
1920

POBLACION

250000

Y7
34517
36715.6731
41607
47521.3112
58084.3024
71707
290152.287

correc. 2005 Pob.correg.2005Y8

-65
-44
-33
-24
-12
0
24595.7133
1896.81177
26492.5251

Pob.correg.2005

87099.6326
34517
60294.8397 49780.3341
49993.875 56700.1643
43478.1294
61812
37467.7115
67858
34517 73024.2503
312851.188 343691.749

correc. 2005 Pob.correg.2005Y9

-65 -29802.3496
34517
-44 -6199.72189 50134.9784
-33 5088.30971
56943.349
-24 13774.1284
61812
-12
24585.439 67320.9672
0
34517
71707
41962.8056 342435.295
-28943.7487
272785.194
243841.446

Y19

Y20
-46155
17944
41607
55899
67858
71707

24578
46853
55836
61812
67858
71707

METODO GRAFICO
200000
180000
160000
140000
120000
100000
80000
60000
40000
20000
0
1920

1940

1960

1980
AO

2000

correc. 2005 Pob.correg.2005Y10

-65 -35620.2053
34517
-44 -9357.74515 50915.1959
-33 3026.30629 57835.0261
-24
12456.878
62642.881
-12 24048.4062
67858
0
34517
71707
29070.6401 345475.103
-27687.2946
285677.36
257990.065

correc. 2005 Pob.correg.2005

-65 -42755.3113
-44 -13407.4456
-33 295.544993
-24 10653.2583
-12 23268.1887
0
34517
12571.2351
-30727.103
302176.765
271449.662

Y1

2020

METODO DE LOS MINIMOS CUADRADOS

Para este metodo es necesario intrerpolar en los valores censales afin de obtener
puntos equidistantes:
AO
1940
1950
1960
1961
1970
1972
1980
1981
1990
1993
2000
2007

POBLACIN
34517
35817
37117
37247
40814
41607
59567
61812
66347
67858
69783
71707

AO
1940
1950
1960
1970
1980
1990
2000

Prom

POBLACIN Xi
34517
35817
37117
40814
59567
66347
69783
343961.2727
57326.87879

RAZON CREC.. Yi(%)

3.766260104
3.629561381
9.961130283
45.94649376
11.38130173
5.178871531

79.86361879
13.31060313

Log Yi
0.57591031
0.559854145
0.99830862
1.662252375
1.056191937
0.714235138

Xi^2
1191423289
1282857489
1377671689
1665804858
3548227489
4401858062

5.566752526
0.927792088
log
Y

1.3468E+10
2244640479

EL crecimieto aritmetico esta dado por:

Donde :

X *Y
n

Y a b* X
b

Y + X *Y *
(
n

X X 2 1
1

)/(
+
*
)
n
X n
X
n

b =
Y:

a =

a =

0.000168275

Y - b* X
n

3.663934142

Entonces el crecimiento aritmetico estara gobernado por:

Yi 4 .043626347

Yi 4 .043626347
EL crecimieto geometrico esta dado por:

Y a * e
a 10 A

Donde:

B =

log Y + XLogY *
(
n

B
Loge

2
1 X X
1
)/(
+
*
)
X n n X

n
B =

n
1.02385E-05

A =

log Y - B* X
n

Por lo tanto:

b* X

A =

0.340851058

a =
b =

2.192053039
2.35750E-05

Entonces el crecimiento geometrico estara gobernado por:

Xi*Yi
130000
130000
369727.273
1875272.73
677950
343600

XiLogYi
19878.6962
20052.2959
37054.2211
67843.6218
62914.1851
47387.0016

3526550
587758.333
X *Y

255130.022
42521.6703
XLogY

X
+
n

1
)
X
n

043626347 0 .00022122 * Xi

043626347 0 .00022122 * Xi

Yi 1.45809603

0.00002093 * x

*e

METODO RACIONAL

AO
URBANA
1940
1961
1972
1981
1993
2007

POBLACION
RURAL

34517
37247
41607
61812
67858
71707

0
0
0
0
0
0

TOTAL

DIF AOS

34517
37247
41607
61812
67858
71707

21
11
9
12
14

DIF. POBLACIN
2730
4360
20205
6046
3849

67

TASA DE CREC. PROMEDIO:

555.0746269

ENTONCES POR EL METODO RACIONAL:

P
METODO DE INCREMENTOS VARIABLES:

AO
POBLACIN
1940
34517
1961
37247
1972
41607
1981
61812
1993
67858
2007
71707
Interpolando:
AO
1940
1947
1957
1961
1967
1972

POBLACION
34517
35427
36727
37247
39625
41607

P0
p1

71707 555 . 0745269 t

1977
1981
1987
1993
1997
2007

52832
61812
64835
67858
68958
71707

pn-1
Pn

Sabemos que n:
6

P n P0

1 p n 1
2 p

7256

P P P P
n

n 1

n2

362.321429

Entonces nuestra ecuacin por el metodo de incrementos variables:

71707 m 7256

m m 1
2

TASA DE CREC.
130
396.3636364
2245
503.8333333
274.9285714

555 . 0745269 t

707 m 7256

m m 1
362 .3214293
2

METODO EXPONENCIAL:

AO

POBLACION
1940
1961
1972
1981
1993
2007

34517
37247
41607
61812
67858
71707

Formula a utilizar:

P f P0 e r

Combinaciones:
AOS

POBLACIN
1940
34517
1961
37247

r(%)
21

AOS

0.36247397

1961
1972

POBLACIN
37247
41607
37247
61812

1940
1972

34517
41607

32

0.5838021

1961
1981

1940
1981

34517
61812

41

1.42108832

1961
1993

37247
67858

1940
1993

34517
67858

53

1.2754077

1961
2005

37247
71707

1940
2007

34517
71707

67

1.09124959

El r(%) promedio:
r=(r1*r2*r3*..rn)^1/n
1.17424568

Entonces la ecuacin de poblacin por este mtodo:

1
.
17424568

P f 71707 e 100

1
.
17424568

P f 71707 e 100

r(%)
1.00633764

POBLACIN
1972
41607
1981
61812

20

2.53263339

1972
1993

32

1.87452046

1972
2005

44

1.48867658

11

AOS

1
.
17424568

07 e 100

r(%)
9

4.39810597

41607
67858

21

2.32928289

41607
71707

33

1.64945622

1
.
17424568

07 e 100

AOS

POBLACIN
1981
61812
1993
67858
1981
2005

61812
71707

r(%)
12

0.77766558

24

0.61871257

AOS
1993
2005

POBLACIN
67858
71707

r(%)
12

0.45975955

METODO DE LA INEI
AO
1940
1961
1972
1981
1993
2007
SUMA:
DIF:

POBLACIN
34517
37247
41607
61812
67858
71707
314748

t
0
21
32
41
53
67

M1
34517
44185
50287
55901
64372
75892
325154
-10406

M2
34517
47599
54452
60059
67534
76256
340417
-25669

M3
34517
36291
37648
38977
41056
43923
232413
-82335

0
2
3
4
5
6
7

AO
1940
1961
1972
1981
1993
2007

POBLACIN
34517
37247
41607
61812
67858
71707

1940
1960
1961
1970
1972
1980
1981
1990
1993
2000
2005
2010

AO
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1961
1965
1970
1972
1975
1980
1981
1985
1990
1993
1995
2000
2007

POBLACIN
34517
35167
35817
36467
36532
37247
37063
39185
41607
43184
49184
61812
52247
64499
67858
67174
68958
71707

AO
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2007

POBLACIN
34517
35167
35817
36467
36532
37063
39185
43184
49184
52247
64499
67174
68958
71707

r t

P 1
P
t

t
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5
7

r(%)
0.3738207
0.36696162
0.36034972
0.03562328
0.28878793
1.11984734
1.96284244
2.63586265
1.21563264
4.30343316
0.8160898
0.52543857
0.56006096

Tasa de crecimiento promedio por aos quinquenales=

0.65006069

AO
2007
2012
2017
2022
2027
2032
2037

POBLACIN
71707
74068
76507
79026
81629
84317
87093

5
5
5
5
5
5
5

P 0 * 1

AO
1940
1945
1950
1955
1960
1965

1.70892020
100

1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2007

0.064
0.072

0.048

0.016

0.912 0.168 0.016

0.696 0.424 0.048
0.424 0.696 0.072

0.168 0.912 0.064

7922
8622

9385

10215

0.064
0.072

0.048

0.016

-0.064
-0.072
-0.048
-0.016

0.912
0.696
0.424
0.168

2022
2027
2032
2037

79026
81629
84317
87093

0.912 0.168 0.016 P2020 P2026

0.696 0.424 0.048 P2025 P2027

0.424 0.696 0.072 P2030 P2028

0.168 0.912 0.064 P2035 P2029

AO
1940
1961
1972
1981
1993
2007
2012
2017
2022
2027
2028

POBLACIN
34517
37247
41607
61812
67858
71707
74068
76507
79026
81629
83772

0.168
0.424
0.696
0.912

2026
2027
2028
2029

90000
80000

70000
POBLACIN

COEFICIENTES KARUP KING:

60000
50000
40000
30000

20000
10000

M4
34517
46174
52279
57275
63936
71707
325888
11140

34517
49391.3214
50189.3857
57371.9643
59040.5571
65714.9286
66585.4571
74420.2143
77140.4964
83487.8214
88202.7857
92917.75

M5
34517
50189
59041
66585
77140
88203
375676
60928

M6
34517
44170
50260
55862
64316
75807
324932
6

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1

1935
1940
1945
1955
1961
1965
1972
1975
1981
1985
1993
1995
2005

M7
34517
55385
58272
59971
61731
63337
333213
18465

547.533336
11434.7429
10487.4762
9974.73334
9896.51429
10252.819
11043.6476
12269

M8
34517
39548
42470
45020
48661
52595
262811
51937

 1.708920202

P P 1
100

POBLACIN
34517
35654
36828
38040
39293
40587

5
5
5
5
5
5

41923
43304
44730
46202
47724
49295
50918
52595

5
5
5
5
5
5
5
5

60-65
70-75
80-85
90-95
39548.3289 42195.7343 45020.3596 48034.0682
39805.4057
42470.02 45313.0063 48346.3051
40064.1432 42746.0777 45607.5436 48660.5589
40324.574
43023.942 45904.0084 48976.8694

-0.016
-0.048
-0.072
-0.064

82159
82693
83231
83772

METODO ACTUAL INEI

90000
80000

70000
60000
50000

METODO ACTUAL
INEI

40000
30000

20000
10000
0
1900

1950
AO

2000

2050

ECUACION CARACTERISTICA DE CRECIMIENTO.

BASE 2007 (t)
poblac. 1940
poblac.2007
AO
POBLACIN BASE 1940 (t)
1940
34517
0
-67
34517
13270.03347
1961
37247
21
-46 58570.91401
22517.54177
1972
41607
32
-35 77263.48852
29703.88732
1981
61812
41
-26 96915.95853
37259.26393
1993
67858
53
-14 131106.2127
50403.68021
2007
71707
67
0
186518.785
71707
2010
77334
3
2015
87710
8
2020
99478
13
2025
112825
18
2028
121678
21

ECUACION GEOMETRICO:
AO
1940
1961
1972
1981
1993
2007
2010
2015
2020
2025
2028

POBLACIN
34517
37247
41607
61812
67858
71707
74282
78780
83551
88611
91792

1.18285105

71707

Pf
100

3
8
13
18
21

ECUACION ARITMETICA O INTERES SIMPLE:

AO
1940
1961
1972
1981
1993
2007
2010
2015
2020
2025

POBLACIN
34517
37247
41607
61812
67858
71707
75590
82060
88531
95002

1.80481901 t

71707 1

100

3
8
13
18

2028

98885

21

ECUACION PARA BOLICO

AO
1940
1961
1972
1981
1993
2007
2010
2015
2020
2025
2028

POBLACIN
34517
37247
41607
61812
67858
71707
78495
85869
93828
102374
107783

37247 267 .424242 t 11 .7217631 t

49
54
59
64
67

ECUACION METODO RACIONAL

AO
1940
1961
1972
1981
1993
2007
2010
2015
2020
2025
2028

POBLACIN
34517
37247
41607
61812
67858
71707
73372
76148
78923
81698
83364

71707 555 . 0745269 t

3
8
13
18
21

ECUACION DE INCREMENTOS VARIABLES:

AO
1940
1961
1972
1981
1993
2007

POBLACIN
34517
37247
41607
61812
67858
71707

71707 m 7256

m m 1
362 .3214293
2

2010
2015
2020
2025
2028
2035

74428
78963
82591
86219
88722
94562

ECUACION EXPONENCIAL
AO
1940
1961
1972
1981
1993
2007
2010
2015
2020
2025
2028

POBLACIN
34517
37247
41607
61812
67858
71707
74278
81594
95050
117422
150259

1.17424568

P 71707 e 100

3
8
13
18
21

6
1
4
4

7
1
3 .
1
8
7
8
0
5
2

0
.000
02
09
3

0
9

CURVA DE LA ECUACION CARACTERISTICA

140000

POBLACION

120000

100000
80000

CURVA DE LA
ECUACION
CARACTERISTICA

60000

40000
20000

0
1900

1950

2000

2050

AOS

POBLACIN

METODO GEOMETRICO
100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
1920

Series1

1940

1960

1980

2000

2020

2040

AOS

METODO INTERES SIMPLE

120000

POBLACIN

100000

80000
METODO INTERES
SIMPLE

60000
40000
20000

0
1900

1950

2000

2050

1900

1950

2000

2050

AOS
METODO PARABOLICO

120000
100000

80000

POBLACION

11 .7217631 t

METODO
PARABOLICO

60000
40000
20000
0
1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

2020

2040

AO

METODO RACIONAL
90000
70000
POBLACIN

0745269 t

80000

60000
50000

METODO
RACIONAL

40000
30000

20000
10000
0
1920

1940

1960

1980

2000

2020

2040

AOS

METODO INCREMENTO VARIABLE

362 .3214293
POBLACION

100000
90000
80000
70000
60000
50000
40000

METODO
INCREMENTO
VARIABLE

POBLACION

40000
30000
20000
10000
0
1900

VARIABLE

1950

2000

2050

AOS

METODO EXPONENCIAL

160000
140000
120000
POBLACION

.17424568
100

100000
METODO
EXPONENCIAL

80000
60000
40000
20000
0
1900

1950

2000

AOS

0
.000
02
09
3

0
9

2050

CURVAS DE POBLACION FUT

160000

140000

POBLACIN

120000

100000

80000

60000

40000

20000

0
1920

1940

CURVAS DE POBLACION FUTURA

EC.
CARACTERISTICA
CRECIMIENTO
MET. GEOMETRICO

MET. ARITMETICO

MET. PARABOLICO

MET. RACIONAL

MET. DE
INCREMENTOS
VARIABLES
MET. EXPONENCIAL

MET. INEI

1960

1980
AO

2000

2020

2040

ARACTERISTICA

ET. GEOMETRICO

ET. ARITMETICO

ET. PARABOLICO

ET. RACIONAL

ET. EXPONENCIAL