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2013 2020

, 2013

2013-2020


1.

...................................................................................................................................... 1
1.1. ....................................................................................................................... 1
1.2. .......................................................................................................... 1
1.2.1. ................................................................................................................................ 1
1.2.2. ....................................................................................................................... 1
1.2.3. ............................................................................................................. 2

2.

.............................................................................................. 3
2.1. ...................................................................................................................... 3
2.2. ............................................................................................... 5

3.

........................................................................................................................... 8
3.1. ...................................................................................................................... 8
3.2. ................................................................................... 10

4.

............................................................................................... 14
4.1. ........................................................ 14
4.2. .................................................................................................................. 14
4.2.1. ..................................................................................................... 14
4.2.2. ................................................................................................................... 16
4.2.3. ..................................................................................................... 16
4.3. ....................................................................................................... 17
4.3.1. ..................................................................................................... 17
4.3.2. ................................................................................................................... 18
4.4. ................................................................................................................... 19
4.4.1. .................................................................................................. 19
4.4.2. ........................................................................................... 20
4.5. ............................................ 21

5.

............................................................................................................................. 23
5.1. ...................................................................................................................................... 23
5.2. ........................................................................................ 24
5.3. ...................................................................... 24

6.

.............................................................................. 27
6.1. ............................................................................................................. 27
6.1.1. .............................................................................................. 28
6.1.2. .............................................................................................................................. 29
6.1.3. ................................................................................................................... 29
6.1.4. ........................................................................................................ 30
6.1.5. ............................................................................. 31
6.2. ................................................................................................. 31
6.2.1. ................................................................................................................. 31
6.2.2. 2013 ................................................................. 33
6.2.3. 2016 .................................................. 34
6.2.4. 2020.......................... 35

7.

........................................................................................ 38
7.1. () ....................................................................................... 38
7.1.1. ....................................................................................................... 39
7.2. ................................................................................................................................ 39
7.2.1. .......................................................................................... 39
7.2.2. .............................................................................................................................. 41
7.3. ......................................................................................................................... 42
7.3.1. ................................................................................................................ 42
7.3.2. 2013 ................................................................. 42
7.3.3. 2016 .................................................. 44
7.3.4. 2020.......................... 46
7.3.5. 2020........................................................................... 48

2013-2020

8.

......................................................................................................................... 50

9.

: ENTSO-E ...................................... 52
9.1. ................................................................................................................................... 52
9.1.1. (Reference points) ............................................................... 52
9.1.2. (Load) .................................................................................................................. 52
9.1.3. (Load Management) ........................................................................ 52
9.1.4. (Net Generating Capacity)........................................................................ 52
9.1.5. (Unavailable Capacity) .................................................................. 52
9.1.5.1. (Non-Usable Capacity) ............................................. 53
9.1.5.2. (Maintenance and Overhauls) ................................................................ 53
9.1.5.3. (Outages) ................................................................. 53
9.1.5.4. (System Services Reserve) ................................................... 54
9.1.6. (Peak Load)............................................................................................. 54
9.1.7. (Margin against Seasonal Peak Load) 54
9.1.8. (Spare Capacity)..................................................................................... 54
9.1.9. (Simultaneous Interconnection
Transmission Capacities) ................................................................................................. 54
9.2. ................................................................................................................ 54
9.2.1. (Reliably Available Capacity)............................................. 55
9.2.2. (Remaining Capacity)........................................................................... 56
9.2.3. (Adequacy Reference Margin) ..................................................... 56
9.3. ................................................... 56
9.3.1. , ................ 56
9.3.2. .............................. 56

10.

:
ENTSO-E................................................................................................................................... 57
10.1. ....................................................................................................................... 57
10.2. .................................................................................................................. 61

11.

: LOLP ............................ 64

12.

IV: EFORD ........................................................................... 66

ii

2013-2020

1.
1.1.

4 95 .4001/2011

,
, .
,
,
,
.

,

, , 95
.4001/2011, ,
.

1.2.

1.2.1.



.
,
,
.
, 210 , ,
,
, ,

( ) .

1.2.2.


.

.

,
. ,
1

2013-2020

,

,

.

1.2.3.

( ) :

( )


. ,
, .
,
. ,

.
,
,
.
2013 2020
,
. ,
ENTSO-E
,
LOLE (Loss of Load Expectation) 2013, 2016 2020.
2 5
,

.
6
ENTSO-E,
Scenario Outlook & Adequacy Forecast
(SO&AF).
2013 2020.
7
LOLE (Loss of Load Expectation)
2013 2020.

2013-2020

2.
2.1.

2.1
( ,
) 2000 . 2000 2008
. ,
, .

TWh

GW

60

12

55

11

50

10

45

40

(TWh)

35

(GW)

8
7
6

30
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

2.1:
( ) 2000 - 2012
20002008 3.1%, .
2008, , (
) 56.3 TWh, 1.11%
2007. 2009
, 5.01% 2008,
20.19% 2008,
3.63%. 2012

2011, 2008 2012
6% .
, ,
.. ..,
/
.
. 2.1 ,
, ,
. 2004
.
2012, ,
, 2,6 TWh.
3

2013-2020

. 2.1:

2002

5-
5-
3-
(*) 10-
(GWh)
2003-2012 2003-2007 2008-2012 2010-2012
(GWh)
46 974
46 974

2003

49 732

5.87%

49 732

5.87%

2004

50 954

2.46%

51 225

3.00%

2005

52 553

3.14%

52 880

3.23%

2006

53 597

1.99%

53 990

2.10%

2007

55 253

3.09%

55 690

3.15%

2008

55 675

0.76%

56 310

1.11%

2009

52 436

-5.56%

53 490

-5.01%

2010

52 329

-0.20%

53 545

0.10%

2011

51 492

-1.60%

52 915

-1.18%

2012

50 289

-2.34%

52 862

-0.10%

2.87%

0.68%

-1.57%
-0.64%

2013**
(22 523)
(24 529)
(*) .. .
.
.
(**)

2.2
( ) 2004 2012.

2.2: 2004 2012


. 2.2
2009 2012.

2013-2020

. 2.2: 2009-2012
2009

2010

2011

2012

4477
4049
4288
3725
3846
4102
5371
4764
4280
3946
4250
4394
51492

4637
4289
4067
3389
3643
4304
5438
4765
3825
3727
3770
4437
50289

(GWh)
.
.
.
.

.
.

.
.
.
.

4564
4174
4289
3793
4113
4571
5408
4756
4135
4104
4096
4433
52436

4545
3994
4196
3790
4073
4474
5270
5382
4171
4034
3962
4438
52329

,
2011
2012, ,
.
2.3 2004 2012.

2.3: 2004
2012( )

2.2.


- :

, .

(,
, , ...)
,
(.. ).


( , ...).

(.. ).

2013-2020

,
, ...


(2013-2023)

( , ),
.
(

,
). : ANA,
.

(
) 2012 2023,
. 2.3. 2017, . 2.3
, 2020 ,
2019
.

. 2.3:
(2012-2023)

(GWh)

2012

52862

52862

52862

2013

53020

53285

53390

2014

53180

53710

53925

2015

53340

54140

54460

2016

53765

54840

55445

2017

54620

56000

56900

2018

55050

56720

57920

2019

55720

57740

59190

2020

59600

62040

63800

2021

60480

63250

65350

2022

61370

64490

66940

2023

62280

65750

68580


2012, .

. ,
,
. ,

2013-2020

,
. ,
, ,
.
,
2014, 2018 ( )
2008.
,
2015
(1%). ,
.

,
2000-2010 (1.5%).

2015
(0.5%). ,

().

2013-2020

3.
3.1.

. 3.1 ( ),
2002 , . 3.2
( ) 2009 2012.

. 3.1:

(1)
(MW)

2002

8924 (2)

2003

9042 (2)

2004
2005
2006

9370

3.63%

(2)

1.29%

9889

3.6%

4.19%

10411

(2)

5.28%

2008

10217

(2)

-1.86%

2009

9762 (5)

-4.45%

2010

9794

(5)

0.33%

2011

9868 (5)

0.76%

2007

10-
5-
5-
3-
2003-2012 2003-2007 2008-2012 2010-2012

1.32%

(3, 4)

9491

0.8%

-1.2%
-0.3%

(5)

(1)
(2)

(3)
(4)
(5)

2012
9735
-1.35%
.
,
150 MW 2002 ( 9100 MW), 70
MW 2003 ( 9112 MW), 165 MW 2005 ( 9651 MW), 500
MW 2007 ( 10911 MW) 150 MW 2008 ( 10367
MW)
Black-Out 12/7/2004, 12:39
9600 MW 2004 ( Black-Out)
, 47 MW
2009 ( 9809 MW), 78 MW 2010 ( 9872 MW), 145 MW
2011 ( 10013 MW) 638 MW 2012 ( 10373 MW)

2009 2012
.
3.1
2009 .

2013-2020



10600
10400

10200

(MW)

10000
9800
9600
9400
9200
9000
2009

2010

2011

2012

3.1:

. 3.2: ( ) 2009-2012
2009

2010

2011

2012

8027
8153
8299
7041
6755
7564
9868
8314
7981
7298
7965
7834

8734
8529
8080
6726
6517
8361
9735
8809
7440
6973
7279
8470

(MW)
.
.
.
.

.
.
.
.
.
.
.

8332
8288
7718
7157
7461
9035
9762
9329
8294
7290
7711
8060

8714
8317
7863
7065
7341
9732
9794
9441
7588
7349
7251
8457

1993
( 2005 2006,
),
.
. 3.3
10-. . 3.4
2010 2012.
, .

2013-2020

. 3.3:

(1)
(MW)


. (%)


10-
5-
3-
2003-2012

2002

2907

2003

2989

2.82

2004

3155

5.55

2005

3214

1.87

2006

3201

-0.40

2007

3429

7.12

2008

3411

-0.52

2009

3238

-5.07

2010

3326

2.72

2011

3356

0.90

2008-2012

2010-2012

0.10%

-3.04%
-4,79%

2012
3015
-10.17
(1)

. 3.4: ( ) 2010-2012
2010
.
.
.
.

.
.

.
.
.
.

3.2.

2011
(MW)
4085
4200
3920
3404
3356
3837
4703
4411
4068
3836
4004
4067

3789
3937
3843
3326
3642
3834
4486
4950
3963
3738
3766
3836

2012
4121
4152
3587
3015
3348
3575
4880
4434
3807
3650
3605
3733


. ,
, ,
,
. . ,
.
, ,

10

2013-2020

,
.

60.5% .
.
,
: , , .
3.5. ,
.

/.
. 3.5: (
)

(MW)

2012

10373

10373

10373

2013

10000

10050

10075

2014

10030

10130

10175

2015

10065

10215

10275

2016

10145

10350

10460

2017

10310

10570

10740

2018

10390

10700

10930

2019

10510

10900

11170

2020

11245

11700

12040

2021

11410

11930

12330

2022

11580

12170

12630

2023

11750

12400

12940

, 2400MW /,
. ,
, 2013 , 1400 1700 MW
. 3.5, / .
2013 ,
,
, ,
/. 3.2 3.3
, 3.4
2013.
,
. . 3.6
,
.

11

2013-2020

8.500

13

8.000

12
11

7.500

10
09

7.000

08
6.500
6.000
5.500
5.000
4.500
4.000
3.500
1

10 11

12 13

14 15

16 17

18

19 20

21 22

23 24

3.2:

9.500

13
12

9.000

11

8.500

10
09

8.000

08

7.500
7.000
6.500
6.000
5.500
5.000
4.500
1

10

11

12

13

14

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

3.3:

12

22

23

24

2013-2020

1,0

2008
2013

0,9

0,8

0,7

0,6

0,5

0,4

0,3

3.4: 2013

. 3.6:

(MW)

2012

9163

9163

9163

2013

9150

9200

9215

2014

9180

9270

9310

2015

9200

9350

9400

2016

9280

9465

9570

2017

9430

9670

9820

2018

9500

9790

10000

2019

9620

9970

10215

2020

10290

10710

11010

2021

10440

10920

11280

2022

10590

11130

11550

2023

10750

11350

11840

13

2013-2020

4.
4.1.

17,4 GW. . 4.1


.

, .

. 4.1:
(1/6/2013)

4.2.


(MW)

(%)

10.238,5

58,8

3.017,7

17,3

4.169,81

23,9

17.426,01

100,0

4.2.1.
(58.8%
) , ,
, . 4.2.
(78.6% 2012).
,
, .
,
30% .

,
, 3700 MW
.
2032 MW.

14

2013-2020

. 4.2:

(MW)

(MW)


.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. IV
.
. V







II

III

V





III

IV







IV
:

300
300
310
310
375
300
300
300
300
306
306
33
10
300
300
330
125
125
300
4930

274
274
283
283
342
273
273
275
275
280
280
30
8
255
256
289
116
116
274
4456





V




:

150
150
130
300
730

144
144
123
287
698

484,6
176,5
560
385,2
395

476,3
173,4
550,2
377,6
389,4

()


( )


V ( )


V ( )
ELPEDISON





POWER
.
.
ELPEDISON


PROTERGIA
.
.
:

432

422,1

436,6
421,6
444,5
3736

433,5
410
432,7
3665,2


.
. VIII
.
.

3
:

160
200
148,5
508,5

151
188
147,8
486,8



3
:

334
334

334
334

:
10238,5
9640
1. .
2. 40 MW.

15

2013-2020

4.2.2.
,
,

,
.

, , .

:

.. ,
417 MW

.. ,
811 MW , .

.., 620 MW,


.


,
.

4.2.3.

, ..
. ..
. . 4.3
..
.
. 4.3: .. 2020


(MW)

. 8
. 9
3
4
1
2
3

2
3
4

151
188
144
144
123
287
173
38
117
116
274

1755

. 4.3, 2020
, 273 MW ,
( 1110 MW). .

16

2013-2020

4.3.

4.3.1.
(. 4.4) .

(~17%), .

. . 4.5
/ ,
10-20%,
. 4.1
2007-2012.

. 4.4: *

II

I, II
I, II

-I
I-IV
I-IV
,
I, II
I-III
,
-I
I, I-III
I, I-II
I, III
I, II
-

(MW)
(MW)
2x25
2x54
19
3x128
4x80
4x109.3
2x35
2x105
3x43.3
2x58
3x125
3x100
2x16
1.6
2x75
3x105

2x25
2x54
19
3x128
4x80
4x109.3
2x35
2x105
3x43.3
2x58
3x125
3x100
2x16
1.6
2x75
3x105

3017.7

3017.7

9
. 3468/06

17

2013-2020

2007 - 2012

(GWh)

2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012

3200
2800
2400
2000
1600
1200
800

4.1: 2007-2012

. 4.5: / ( )
10-

2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007*
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012

.
.

(MW)

(GWh)

3059.7
3059.7
3059.7
3059.7
3059.7
3059.7
3017.7
3017.7
3017.7
3017.7
3017.7
3017.7

2665.4
3381.3
5211.3
4926.6
5420.5
6229.4
3142.7
2973.5
4955.4
6702.6
3675.5
3891.7

(%)
9.94
12.62
19.44
18.33
20.22
23.24
11.89
11.22
18.75
25.35
13.90
14.68

* 2007 , 9
.3468/2006

4.3.2.
2013 7
780 MW. , 4
335MW .
(2013-2020)
:

.. ,
153 MW, .

.. ,
160 MW
.

.. , 29 MW,
18

2013-2020


, 60 MW, .

.. , 126,5 MW

.. , 160 MW

4.4.

4.4.1.

28,5 GW . (/)
(/) , ,
(), ().

().
2013,
4170 MW, 1495 MW / 2322
MW / ( / 1079/2009).
, ( )
600
5665 MW (
. 3851/2010). , 2161 / 4165
MW , 600 MW,
.
/
4800 MW, .
. 4.6
. ,
2 MW.
. 4.6: 9 . 3468/06 ( )
( 2013)

(MW)



13178
4165
288
77
0
0
1087
1381
206
42
14759
5665


1495
218
901
23222
463
4170

1 .

2
.
3

19

2013-2020

. 4.7
2008 2012.
( ) 3,87% 2008 11,25% 2012.
2012 3892 GWh (
7,7% )
18,94% 18,65% .

. 4.7: 9 .
3468/06 ( )
/4

MW

GWh

MW

GWh

MW

GWh

MW

GWh MW GWh

MW

GWh

2008

791

1661

11

158

325

39

177

63

35

1062

2203

2009

917

1908

46

45

183

657

41

182

141

144

1327

2937

2010

1039

2062

153

132

197

754

41

194

125

115

1555

3256

2011

1363

2596

439

442

205

581

45

199

89

142

2141

3959

2012

1466

3161

1126

1510

213

669

45

197

90

149

2940

5686

4.4.2.

.
,
.

.

. 4.8:
2013

1500
2270
218
45
90
4118


2016
2020
(MW)
1920
2800
3120
4000
226
250
136
200
119
119
5521
7369


2016
2020
1960
3220
236
146
173
5735

3000
4500
300
250
390
8440

2012 / 1079/2009

20

2013-2020

4.5.


2013-2020.
,
. ,
1.1.1
4.3.2,
. 4.3.
. 4.8.


4.3.2,
. 4.8.
. 4.9 .

. 4.9:

(MW)

9
9
9
9
9
9
9

2250

9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
2570

9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
1755

9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
1755


2014
2014
2015
2015
2019
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020

V
417

153
V
811

29
5
620

160
(TERNA)
60
. ()
93

126,5

160
2013 2020 (MW)


2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2014
2014
2015
2017

38
. 8
151
. 9
188
3
144
4
144
1
123
2
287
3
173
2
117
3
116
4
274
2013 2020 (MW)

21

2013-2020

2013, . 4.9,
,
. 4.2.
2016
4 . 2016,
5
400 MW.
, 2020
,
. , 2020
:

1: 1 2 , 273 MW ,
.

2: 1 2 1 2
, 275 MW
.

3: 1 2 1 - 4

22

2013-2020

5.
5.1.

, ,
,

.
,
,
.

.
,
.
( )
,
(
).


,

.


, ..
ENTSO-E,
(target model)
2014.

:


,
(cross-border) , ,
.

,
, .


,
.

23

2013-2020

5.2.

2004

ENTSO-E (European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity),

2009 UCTE (Union pour la Coordination du Transport de l
Electricit).
.., 400 kV, ,
(FYROM). ,
( ) . 18
2010, ,
.
.
ENTSO-E.
5.1,
, ,
.

Rosiori

Becescaba

HU

Pince
Heviz

Udine(IT)

Okroglo

Nadab

Sandorfalva

Cirkovce

Cirkovc
e
Krsk
Krsko
o

Pecs

SI

RO

Arad

Divaca

Resita

Sombor Subotica

Zerjavinec
Tumbri
Ernestinovo
Meline

Pancevo

Italy

IsacceaIsacce

S. Mitrovica

BB .. Luka
Luka

HR

Ugljevik

Konjsk
o

Mostar
Mostar

Portile de
Fier

Djerdap

BA

SR

Konjsko

Ribarevin

Kozloduj
Nis

Ribarevine
e

Trebinj
Trebinje
e

Podgorica

Sofia
Sofia
West
West

KosovoB

Podgorica

C . Mogil
Mogila
a

ME

Skopje5

Tirana

FYROM

Tiran
a

Italy

Stip
Dubrovo

Bitola

BG

Varna

Varna
Dobruja

Maritza 3

Blagoevgrad

Hamidabat
N.Santa

Elbasan
Elbasa

Babaeski

AL

400 kV

DCLinkto
Italy

Zemblak

Tintareni

Thessaloniki

Florina

TR

Kardia

GR
Arachtho
Arachthos
s

5.1:

5.3.

5.2 ( )
, . 5.1
.
24

2013-2020

( 2000
). 5.3
2012,
,
, .... . , . 5.2
2008
2013.
TWh
6

( - )

5
4
3
2
1
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

5.2: 1997 2012

. 5.1: 10-

(GWh)

(GWh)

(GWh)

2001

3562.00

1061.62

2500.39

2002

4601.88

1705.35

2896.53

2003

4168.91

2093.29

2075.62

4853.99

2033.41

2820.58

2005

5616.42

1835.51

3780.91

2006

6139.46

1937.08

4202.38

2007

6411.50

2057.31

4354.19

2008

7574.76

1960.79

5613.97

2009

7600.77

3233.07

4367.70

2010

8517.36

2811.23

5706.13

2011

7179.77

3947.44

3232.33

2012

5954.04

4169.88

1784.17

2004

,

.

25

2013-2020

2301 GWh

FYRO M
1457 GWh

2 GWh

147 GWh

-1463 GWh
1480 GWh

1699 GWh

2303 GWh

1703 GWh

1604 GWh

-2210 GWh

17 GWh

2536 GWh

327 GWh

4 GWh

5.3: 2012

. 5.2: 2008 - 2013


2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013**

(MW)
*

800

800

800

1200

1200

1300

500

500

500

500

500

500

* 2011
** 2013 ,

26

2013-2020

6.

2013-2020 ENTSO-E,
Scenario Outlook & Adequacy Forecast (SO&AF).

- ,
, - ENTSO-E .
ENTSO-E
.
2013, 2016 2020.
.

6.1.

ENTSOE ,
.
,
, 6.1:

(Reliably Available Capacity, RAC):



.

(Remaining Capacity, RC):




.

(Adequacy Reference Margin, ARM):


,

(security of
supply).

,
RC. ,
.
, , .
, RC ,

.
,
, RC ARM.
RC ARM
,
, .
, RC ARM,

27

2013-2020

. ,
.

6.1: ENTSO-E

9.
ENTSO-E
2-5, ,
.

6.1.1.
ENTSO-E
(9.1.1).

, ,

. ,
:

: 19 (
18:00 CET 19:00 CET)

: 11 (
10:00 CEST 11:00 CEST)

: 19 (
18:00 CEST 19:00 CEST)

28

2013-2020

6.1.2.
ENTSO-E
(3.2). ,

,
. 6.1.
, . 6.1
.
,
.
. 6.1:
2013

2016
2020
(W)

8654
8913
10075
7743
7974
9014
911
939
1061
0
300
500

10050
10350
11700
8964
9231
10436
1086
1119
1264
500
700
1000

9200
9465
10710
8073
8314
9398
1127
1151
1312
500
900
1200

6.1.3.
ENTSO-E

4.5, ,

4.5.
. 6.2
.

29

2013-2020

. 6.2:

2013
2016
2020

8,565
3,236
3,905
15,706

9,388
3,426
5,295
18,108


2013
2016
2020

(GW)
9,734
8,565
3,452
3,236
7,119
3,905
20,304
15,706

9,388
3,436
5,499
18,322

9,734
4,099
8,140
21,973

2016


4
9,114
3,426
5,295
17,834


4
9,114
3,436
5,499
18,048

2020

1
9,188
3,452
7,119
19,758

2
8,638
3,452
7,119
19,208

3
8,078
3,452
7,119
18,648

1
9,188
4,099
8,140
21,427

2
8,638
4,099
8,140
20,877

3
8,078
4,099
8,140
20,317

6.1.4.



(Non-Usable Capacity), (Maintenance and
Overhauls), (Outages) (System Services Reserves).
Non-Usable Capacity
(9.1.5.1),
,
, , ,
, ,
. Non-Usable Capacity
:

,
3% , 1% 10%


2200 MW


70% , (
)

10%
, 40%,
60%, 70%.

30

2013-2020

,
, 500 MW
. ,

600 MW 2013 1100 MW 2020. ,
600 MW 2013, ,
1000 MW.

6.1.5.
,
2013 1800 MW. 2000
MW 2016 .

6.2.

6.2.1.
ENTSO-E
2013 2020
. 6.3,
6.2 6.3.
(. 10).

. 6.3: 2013 - 2020

2013

2016

(GW)

2020

18,11

20,30

20,30

20,30


Net Generating Capacity (NGC)

15,71

15,71

15,71

18,11

18,11

Reliably Available Capacity (RAC)

9,69

11,23

Remaining Capacity (RC)

1,95

2,77

9,64

9,52

11,56

9,38

10,22

12,86

10,06

2,07

1,85

3,03

1,97

1,70

3,43

1,86

Adequacy Reference Margin (ARM)

1,70

RC ARM

0,25

1,87

1,91

1,84

2,02

2,06

2,08

2,28

2,33

0,90

0,16

0,01

1,01

-0,09

-0,37

1,15

-0,46

18,32

21,97

21,97

21,97


Net Generating Capacity (NGC)

15,71

15,71

15,71

18,32

18,32

Reliably Available Capacity (RAC)

9,69

11,23

Remaining Capacity (RC)

1,95

2,77

9,64

9,58

11,68

9,43

10,48

13,47

10,32

2,07

1,90

3,15

2,02

1,96

4,03

2,12

Adequacy Reference Margin (ARM)

1,70

RC ARM

0,25

1,87

1,91

1,85

2,03

2,07

2,16

2,36

2,41

0,90

0,16

0,05

1,12

-0,05

-0,20

1,67

-0,29

31

2013-2020

RC - ARM
(GW)

2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5

0,0
2013

-0,5

2016

-1,0
-1,5

2020


-2,0
-2,5

6.2: RC ARM 2013 - 2020


(. 6.3) RC
(Remaining Capacity) ,
2013 2020, RC-ARM
2020 2016.

. 2016
. 2020
370 MW 460 MW.

.

RC - ARM
(GW)

2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5

0,0
-0,5

2013

2016

-1,0
-1,5

2020


-2,0
-2,5

6.3: RC ARM 2013 - 2020



(. 6.3)
2013 2020,
. ,
2020 1670 MW ( 1150 MW
32

2013-2020

, 200 MW
290 MW.

6.2.2. 2013
,
.. 2013.
,
. . 6.4
ENTSO-E 2013,
. 6.3 .
.
. 6.4: 2013

(GW)
Net Generating Capacity (NGC)

16,78

16,78

16,78

15,71

15,71

15,71

Reliably Available Capacity (RAC)

10,77

12,27

Remaining Capacity (RC)

3,02

3,80

10,68

9,69

11,23

9,64

3,11

1,95

2,77

2,07

Adequacy Reference Margin (ARM)

1,75

1,93

1,97

1,70

1,87

1,91

RC ARM

1,27

1,88

1,14

0,25

0,90

0,16

RC - ARM 2013
(GW)

2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5

0,0
-0,5

-1,0
-1,5
-2,0
-2,5

6.4: RC ARM 2013


2013 (. 6.4) RC (Remaining
Capacity) RC ARM ,
,
2013 ( ). ,
,
,
, .
,
.

33

2013-2020

6.2.3. 2016
, 4
2017. . 6.5
4 2016,
. 6.3.
. 6.5: 2016
4
4
2017
2016

(GW)

Net Generating Capacity (NGC)

18,11

18,11

18,11

17,83

17,83

17,83

Reliably Available Capacity (RAC)

9,52

11,56

9,38

9,25

11,30

9,11

Remaining Capacity (RC)

1,85

3,03

1,97

1,58

2,77

1,70

Adequacy Reference Margin (ARM)

1,84

2,02

2,06

1,83

2,01

2,04

RC ARM

0,01

1,01

-0,09

-0,25

0,76

-0,34


Net Generating Capacity (NGC)

18,32

18,32

18,32

18,05

18,05

18,05

Reliably Available Capacity (RAC)

9,58

11,68

9,43

9,30

11,42

9,17

Remaining Capacity (RC)

1,90

3,15

2,02

1,63

2,89

1,75

Adequacy Reference Margin (ARM)

1,85

2,03

2,07

1,84

2,02

2,05

RC ARM

0,05

1,12

-0,05

-0,21

0,87

-0,30

2,5

(GW)

RC - ARM 2016
( )

2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5

0,0
-0,5

2017

2016


-1,0
-1,5
-2,0
-2,5

6.5: 4 RC-ARM
2016 ( )

34

2013-2020

RC - ARM 2016
( )

(GW)
2,5

2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5

0,0
-0,5

2017

2016

-1,0

-1,5
-2,0
-2,5

6.6: 4 RC-ARM
2016 ( )
, 2016
. , 4 2016
RC-ARM
( ),

.

6.2.4. 2020
. 6.6
2020.
. 6.6: 2020

(GW)


Net Generating Capacity (NGC)

19,76

19,76

19,76

19,21

19,21

19,21

18,65

18,65

18,65

Reliably Available Capacity (RAC)

9,67

12,33

9,53

9,12

11,80

9,00

8,56

11,25

8,45

Remaining Capacity (RC)

1,16

2,90

1,33

0,61

2,36

0,80

0,05

1,82

0,26

Adequacy Reference Margin (ARM)

2,05

2,25

2,30

2,02

2,22

2,27

1,99

2,20

2,24

RC ARM

-0,89

0,64

-0,97

-1,41

0,14

-1,47

-1,95

-0,38

-1,99


Net Generating Capacity (NGC)

21,43

21,43

21,43

20,88

20,88

20,88

20,32

20,32

20,32

Reliably Available Capacity (RAC)

9,93

12,94

9,79

9,38

12,41

9,26

8,82

11,86

8,71

Remaining Capacity (RC)

1,42

3,51

1,59

0,87

2,97

1,06

0,31

2,43

0,52

Adequacy Reference Margin (ARM)

2,13

2,34

2,38

2,10

2,31

2,36

2,08

2,28

2,33

RC ARM

-0,72

1,17

-0,79

-1,24

0,66

-1,30

-1,77

0,15

-1,81

35

2013-2020

. 6.6, 2020
RC
, RC-ARM
,
. :

, (
1) (
) 890 970
MW , 720 790 MW
. ,
, 640 MW
1170 MW .


1 2
( 2), . 6.6,
,
1410 1470 MW , 1240 1300 MW
. ,
,
140 MW 660 MW .


( 3) ( ,
)

1950 1990 MW 1770 1810 MW
. . 6.6,
RC-ARM

380 MW,

150 MW.
RC - ARM 2020
( )

(GW)
3,0
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
-0,5
-1,0
-1,5
-2,0
-2,5
-3,0
-3,5

6.7: RC ARM 2020


( )

36

2013-2020

RC - ARM 2020
( )

(GW)
3,0
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
-0,5
-1,0
-1,5
-2,0
-2,5
-3,0
-3,5

6.8: RC ARM 2020


( )

37

2013-2020

7.

,

, .
LOLE (Loss of Load Expectation),

.
LOLE 2013, 2016 2020.

.

7.1.

()


( ) :

( )

H ( )

,

.
,
, ,
.
,
. ,

.
, ,
, LOLE (Loss
of Load Expectation) LOLP (Loss of Load Probability).

5 ,
.

EFORD (Equivalent Demand Forced Outage Rate


)

5

38

2013-2020

7.1.1.

(..
, , .)

.
,

.

,
, .

(
) .

(.. )
,
(LOL):

, ,

, .

, LOL
2,4 10 , 6.
4,8 , , 1 5 .
(EirGrid)
LOLE 8 , ,
.

7.2.

7.2.1.

4.5,

4.5. . 7.1
.
LOLE
, EFORD (Equivalent Demand Forced
Outage Rate
) .
, EFORD

2012 2013.
EFORD

Least Cost Electric Utility Planning H.G. Stoll, 1988


39

2013-2020

. IV ( 12)
EFORD .

. 7.1:

2016
2020
(GW)
8,565
9,388
9,734
3,236
3,426
3,452
3,905
5,295
7,119
15,706
18,108
20,304
2016
( 4)
9,114
3,426
5,295
17,834
2020
1
2
3
9,188
8,638
8,078
3,452
3,452
3,452
7,119
7,119
7,119
19,758
19,208
18,648
2013

LOLE
4.400 GWh. 2020,

, 3500 GWh.
2020,
,
.
,
. ,
:

10%

. 4.8

3.500, 4.850 6.200 GWh 2013, 2016 2020

,
:

, 1700 MW (1200+500)

40

2013-2020

7.2.2.
LOLE
(3.2).
,
. ,
. 4.8
, LOLE.
2020
LOLE
(. 2.3 . 3.5). . 7.2 ,
, .

. 7.2:


/ (GWh)
(MW)

(MW)
2013*

50.021
9.735
9.042
2016

54.840
10.350
9.620
2020

62.040
11.700
10.841
2020

63.800
12.040
11.164
* 2013 2012

41

2013-2020

7.3.

7.3.1.

2013 2020
. 7.3.

. 7.3: LOLE 2013 2020


2013

0,02761
0,00030

2016
/
0,00805
0,00007

2020
0,04715
0,00056

. 7.3 LOLE
4,8 /
, .

7.3.2. 2013
,
.. 2013.
,
. . 7.4 LOLE 2013,

. 7.3 .
.

. 7.4: LOLE 2013

( / )
0,00001
0,02761
0,00000
0,00030

, ..
LOLE, ,
.
7.1 LOLE
2013,
. 7.2
7.1.

42

2013-2020

2013

L O L E ( / )

80

60

40

35,47

20

8,63

4,8 ./
(1 ./5)

0
14.000

14.500

15.000

15.500

16.000

(MW)

7.1: LOLE ( / ) / 2013

10
8 ./

8,63

2013

( EirGrid)

L O L E ( / )

4,8 /
(1 ./5 )

2,4 /
(1 ./10 )

2,08

0,27


0,028

0
14.000

14.500

15.000

15.500

(MW)

7.2: 7.1

43

16.000

2013-2020

7.3.3. 2016
, 4
2017. . 7.5
4 2016,
. 7.3.

. 7.5: LOLE 2016



(

2017)
2016
( / )
0,00805
0,01899
0,00007
0,00022

, 2016
LOLE,
.
7.3 LOLE
2016,
. 7.4
7.3.

44

2013-2020

2016

L O L E ( / )

80

69,9

60

40

.()
2016

20,26

20

.()

2017

5,90

4,8 ./
(1 ./5)

0
15.000

15.500

16.000

16.500

17.000

17.500

17.591

17.865

18.000

(MW)

7.3: LOLE ( / ) / 2016

10

2016
8 ./
( EirGrid)

L O L E ( / )

4,8 /

5,90

(1 ./5 )

2,4 /
(1 ./10 )

0,69

0,14


.
() .

2016
2017
()

0,03

0,019

17.500

17.591

0,008

0,003

0
15.000

15.500

16.000

16.500

17.000

(MW)

7.4: 7.3

45

17.865

18.000

2013-2020

7.3.4. 2020
. 7.6
2020,
. 7.3.
. 7.6: LOLE 2020

0,04715
0,00056

( / )
0,35656
2,64721
0,00535
0,04720

3
10,3769
0,21169

. 7.6 ,
2020 LOLE ,
.
:

, (
1) LOLE 656%,
.


1 2
( 2), LOLE
, 4,8 /.
LOLE
1
/.


( 3)
LOLE 4,8 /.

7.5 LOLE
2020,
. 7.6
7.5.

46

2013-2020

2020

L O L E ( / )

80

70,43

60

40

.()3

10,38

26,73

.() 2

.()1

.()

20
4,8 ./
(1 ./5)

0
18.000

18.500

18.740

19.000

19.300

19.500

19.850

20.000

20.396

20.500

(MW)

7.5: LOLE ( / ) / 2020

10

2020
8 ./
( EirGrid)

L O L E ( / )

6,79
6

4,8 /
(1 ./5 )

. ()
2,65

2,4 /
(1 ./10 )

1,81

. () 1

0,36

0,27

. ()
0,05

0,04

0
18.000

18.500

18.740

19.000

19.300

19.500

19.850

(MW)

7.6: 7.5

47

20.000

20.396

20.500

2013-2020

7.3.5. 2020

LOLE 2020
.
2 (
1 2 )
:

: ( 3500
GWh)

. 7.7
. 7.6, 7.7 7.8.

. 7.7: 2020
2

2,64721
0,04720

( / )
9,75509
7,31642
0,20419
0,14903

23,34550
0,56975

,
LOLE. . 7.7
LOLE ,
.
,
.
, . 7.7
LOLE .

25

20
15
10
5

4,8 /
(1/ 5 )

0
2

7.7: LOLE 2020 (


)

48

2013-2020


0,6

0,5
0,4
0,3
0,2
0,1
0
2

7.8: LOLE 2020 (


)

49

2013-2020

8.

2013 2020.

ENTSO-E,
LOLE (Loss of Load Expectation)
.
:

2013:
.
.. 2013
.

2016: 2016
.
, ,
. 4
2016, , ,
.

.
.

2020:
2020
2013, .
( , )
,

.

2020 270 MW (
1) . ,

.
270 MW ( 2),
,
.
, 270 MW (
3)
.


/,
,
, . 2013
/
, . ,

(, , , .).
50

2013-2020

,
,
2004 , ,
.

51

2013-2020

9. :
ENTSO-E
ENTSO-E,
,

(reference points).

9.1.

9.1.1. (Reference points)


:

: 19 (
18:00 CET 19:00 CET)

: 11 ( 10:00
CEST 11:00 CEST)

9.1.2. (Load)
ENTSO-E (Load)


,
.

,
.

9.1.3. (Load Management)



(load-shedding) .
.

9.1.4. (Net Generating Capacity)


(Net Generating Capacity, NGC)
,
.

.

9.1.5. (Unavailable Capacity)


(Unavailable Capacity)

.
52

2013-2020

,
, .

9.1.5.1.

(Non-Usable Capacity)

( ,
,
)

9.1.5.2.

(Maintenance and Overhauls)

9.1.5.3.

(Outages)


, .

53

2013-2020

9.1.5.4.

(System Services Reserve)

(security of
supply) ( ),
.

9.1.6. (Peak Load)



, (Peak
Load) , .
.

9.1.7. (Margin against


Seasonal Peak Load)
(Margin against Seasonal Peak Load)

.

.

9.1.8. (Spare Capacity)


(Spare Capacity) ( MW)

.
.

99%
/ . ,
ENTSO-E 5%
.

9.1.9. (Simultaneous
Interconnection Transmission Capacities)
(Simultaneous Interconnection
Transmission Capacities)

- ENTSO-E.

,
.
.

9.2.


,
. ,

54

2013-2020

( )
:

(Reliably Available Capacity, RAC):



.

(Remaining Capacity, RC):




.

(Adequacy Reference Margin, ARM):


,

(security of supply).

9.1.

9.1: ENTSO-E

9.2.1. (Reliably Available Capacity)


(RAC)


(NGC)
(UC):
RAC = NGC UC
(9.1.5)
.
(NonUsable Capacity), (Maintenance and

55

2013-2020

Overhauls),
(Outages) (System Services Reserves).

9.2.2. (Remaining Capacity)


(Remaining Capacity, RC)


.
(RAC) ,
:
RC = RAC (Load Load Management)

9.2.3. (Adequacy Reference Margin)


(Adequacy Reference Margin, ARM)
,

(security of supply).

.

(SC) (MaSPL):
ARM = SC + MaSPL

9.3.

9.3.1. ,

H
RC (9.2.2), .
,
. ,
, . ,
RC ,
.

9.3.2.
, ,
RC (9.2.2) ARM (9.2.3).
RC ARM
,
,
. , RC ARM,

. ,
.

56

2013-2020

10. :
ENTSO-E
10.1.
. 10.1:
GW

Lignite
Hard Coal
Gas

0,000
8,565
4,418
0,000
4,147

2013

0,000
8,565
4,418
0,000
4,147

0,000
8,565
4,418
0,000
4,147

0,000
9,388
4,186
0,000
5,202

2016

0,000
9,388
4,186
0,000
5,202

0,000
9,388
4,186
0,000
5,202

0,000
9,734
4,532
0,000
5,202

2020

0,000
9,734
4,532
0,000
5,202

0,000
9,734
4,532
0,000
5,202

Oil

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

3,905

3,905

3,905

5,295

5,295

5,295

7,119

7,119

7,119


1
2
2A
2B
2C

Nuclear Power
Fossil Fuels

2D
3

Renewable Energy Sources

3A

Wind Power

1,500

1,500

1,500

1,920

1,920

1,920

2,800

2,800

2,800

3B

Solar Power

2,270

2,270

2,270

3,120

3,120

3,120

4,000

4,000

4,000

3C

Biomass

0,045

0,045

0,045

0,136

0,136

0,136

0,200

0,200

0,200

3D

Other

0,090

0,090

0,090

0,119

0,119

0,119

0,119

0,119

0,119

3,236

3,236

3,236

3,426

3,426

3,426

3,452

3,452

3,452

4A

Run-of-River Hydro

0,218

0,218

0,218

0,226

0,226

0,226

0,250

0,250

0,250

4B

Storage and Pumped-Storage Hydro

3,018

3,018

3,018

3,200

3,200

3,200

3,202

3,202

3,202

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

15,706

15,706

15,706

18,108

18,108

18,108

20,304

20,304

20,304

Not Clearly Identifiable Energy Sources


Net Generating Capacity (NGC)
(6=1+2+3+4+5)
Non-Usable Capacity

4,314

3,272

4,861

6,183

4,645

6,829

7,487

5,344

8,144

Maintenance and Overhauls

0,500

0,000

0,000

0,500

0,000

0,000

0,500

0,000

0,000

Outages

0,600

0,600

0,600

0,900

0,900

0,900

1,100

1,100

1,100

10

System Services Reserve


Unavailable Capacity (UC)
(11=7+8+9+10)
Reliably Available Capacity (RAC)
(12=6-11)
Load

0,600

0,600

0,600

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,000

6,014

4,472

6,061

8,583

6,545

8,729

10,087

7,444

10,244

9,692

11,234

9,645

9,525

11,563

9,379

10,217

12,861

10,061

7,743

8,964

8,073

7,974

9,231

8,314

9,014

10,436

9,398

0,000

0,500

0,500

0,300

0,700

0,900

0,500

1,000

1,200

1,949

2,770

2,072

1,851

3,032

1,965

1,703

3,425

1,863

0,785

5
6

11
12
13
14
15
16

Hydro power

Load Management
Remaining Capacity (RC)
(15=12-13+14)
Spare Capacity (5% of NGC)

0,785

0,785

0,905

0,905

0,905

1,015

1,015

1,015

1,127

0,939

1,119

1,151

1,061

1,264

1,312

18

Margin Against Seasonal Peak Load


0,911
1,086
Adequacy Reference Margin (ARM)
1,697
1,871
(18=16+17)
Simultaneous Interconnection Transmission Capacity

1,912

1,844

2,024

2,057

2,076

2,280

2,327

19

Import Capacity

1,800

1,800

1,800

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

20

Export Capacity

1,800

1,800

1,800

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

17

57

2013-2020

. 10.2: 2013 (
)
GW

1
2
2A
2B
2C

Nuclear Power
Fossil Fuels
Lignite
Hard Coal
Gas

2D
3

Oil
Renewable Energy Sources

0,000
0,000
0,000
8,565
8,565
8,565
4,418
4,418
4,418
0,000
0,000
0,000
4,147
4,147
4,147

0,000
0,000
0,000
9,640
9,640
9,640
4,456
4,456
4,456
0,000
0,000
0,000
4,486
4,486
4,486

0,000

0,698

0,000

0,000

0,698

0,698

3,905

3,905

3,905

3,905

3,905

3,905

3A

Wind Power

1,500

1,500

1,500

1,500

1,500

1,500

3B

Solar Power

2,270

2,270

2,270

2,270

2,270

2,270

3C

Biomass

0,045

0,045

0,045

0,045

0,045

0,045

3D

Other

0,090

0,090

0,090

0,090

0,090

0,090

Hydro power

4A
4B

3,236

3,236

3,236

3,236

3,236

3,236

Run-of-River Hydro

0,218

0,218

0,218

0,218

0,218

0,218

Storage and Pumped-Storage Hydro

3,018

3,018

3,018

3,018

3,018

3,018

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

15,706

15,706

15,706

16,781

16,781

16,781

Not Clearly Identifiable Energy Sources


Net Generating Capacity (NGC)
(6=1+2+3+4+5)
Non-Usable Capacity

4,314

3,272

4,861

4,314

3,314

4,903

Maintenance and Overhauls

0,500

0,000

0,000

0,500

0,000

0,000

Outages

0,600

0,600

0,600

0,600

0,600

0,600

10

System Services Reserve


Unavailable Capacity (UC)
(11=7+8+9+10)
Reliably Available Capacity (RAC)
(12=6-11)
Load

0,600

0,600

0,600

0,600

0,600

0,600

6,014

4,472

6,061

6,014

4,514

6,103

9,692

11,234

9,645

10,767

12,267

10,678

7,743

8,964

8,073

7,743

8,964

8,073

0,000

0,500

0,500

0,000

0,500

0,500

1,949

2,770

2,072

3,024

3,803

3,105

0,785

0,785

0,785

0,839

0,839

0,839

1,127

0,911

1,086

1,127

18

Margin Against Seasonal Peak Load


0,911
1,086
Adequacy Reference Margin (ARM)
1,697
1,871
(18=16+17)
Simultaneous Interconnection Transmission Capacity

1,912

1,751

1,925

1,966

19

Import Capacity

1,800

1,800

1,800

1,800

1,800

1,800

20

Export Capacity

1,800

1,800

1,800

1,800

1,800

1,800

5
6

11
12
13
14
15
16
17

Load Management
Remaining Capacity (RC)
(15=12-13+14)
Spare Capacity (5% of NGC)

58

2013-2020

. 10.3: 2016 (
)
GW

Lignite
Hard Coal
Gas

0,000
9,388
4,186
0,000
5,202

0,000
9,388
4,186
0,000
5,202

0,000
9,388
4,186
0,000
5,202

Oil

0,000

0,000

0,000


1
2
2A
2B
2C

Nuclear Power
Fossil Fuels

2D
3

Renewable Energy Sources

4
2016
-

0,000
0,000
0,000
9,114
9,114
9,114
3,912
3,912
3,912
0,000
0,000
0,000
5,202
5,202
5,202
0,000

0,000

0,000

5,295

5,295

5,295

5,295

5,295

5,295

3A

Wind Power

1,920

1,920

1,920

1,920

1,920

1,920

3B

Solar Power

3,120

3,120

3,120

3,120

3,120

3,120

3C

Biomass

0,136

0,136

0,136

0,136

0,136

0,136

3D

Other

0,119

0,119

0,119

0,119

0,119

0,119

Hydro power

4A
4B

3,426

3,426

3,426

3,426

3,426

3,426

Run-of-River Hydro

0,226

0,226

0,226

0,226

0,226

0,226

Storage and Pumped-Storage Hydro

3,200

3,200

3,200

3,200

3,200

3,200

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

18,108

18,108

18,108

17,834

17,834

17,834

Not Clearly Identifiable Energy Sources


Net Generating Capacity (NGC)
(6=1+2+3+4+5)
Non-Usable Capacity

6,183

4,645

6,829

6,183

4,637

6,821

Maintenance and Overhauls

0,500

0,000

0,000

0,500

0,000

0,000

Outages

0,900

0,900

0,900

0,900

0,900

0,900

10

System Services Reserve


Unavailable Capacity (UC)
(11=7+8+9+10)
Reliably Available Capacity (RAC)
(12=6-11)
Load

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,000

8,583

6,545

8,729

8,583

6,537

8,721

9,525

11,563

9,379

9,251

11,297

9,113

7,974

9,231

8,314

7,974

9,231

8,314

0,300

0,700

0,900

0,300

0,700

0,900

1,851

3,032

1,965

1,577

2,766

1,700

0,905

0,905

0,905

0,892

0,892

0,892

1,151

0,939

1,119

1,151

18

Margin Against Seasonal Peak Load


0,939
1,119
Adequacy Reference Margin (ARM)
1,844
2,024
(18=16+17)
Simultaneous Interconnection Transmission Capacity

2,057

1,830

2,010

2,043

19

Import Capacity

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

20

Export Capacity

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

5
6

11
12
13
14
15
16
17

Load Management
Remaining Capacity (RC)
(15=12-13+14)
Spare Capacity (5% of NGC)

59

2013-2020

. 10.4: 2020
( )
GW

0,000
0,000
9,188
9,188
3,986
3,986
0,000
0,000
5,202
5,202

Lignite
Hard Coal
Gas

0,000
9,188
3,986
0,000
5,202

Oil

0,000
7,119

7,119

7,119

3A

Wind Power

2,800

2,800

2,800

3B

Solar Power

4,000

4,000

4,000

3C

Biomass

0,200

0,200

3D

Other

0,119

0,119

3,452

3,452

3,452

Run-of-River Hydro

0,250

0,250

0,250


1
2
2A
2B
2C

Nuclear Power
Fossil Fuels

2D
3

Renewable Energy Sources

Hydro power

4A
4B

0,000

0,000

0,000
8,638
3,436
0,000
5,202
0,000

0,000
0,000
8,638
8,638
3,436
3,436
0,000
0,000
5,202
5,202

0,000
8,078
2,876
0,000
5,202

0,000
0,000
8,078
8,078
2,876
2,876
0,000
0,000
5,202
5,202

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

7,119

7,119

7,119

7,119

7,119

7,119

2,800

2,800

2,800

2,800

2,800

2,800

4,000

4,000

4,000

4,000

4,000

4,000

0,200

0,200

0,200

0,200

0,200

0,200

0,200

0,119

0,119

0,119

0,119

0,119

0,119

0,119

3,452

3,452

3,452

3,452

3,452

3,452

0,250

0,250

0,250

0,250

0,250

0,250

Storage and Pumped-Storage Hydro

3,202

3,202

3,202

3,202

3,202

3,202

3,202

3,202

3,202

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

19,758

19,758

19,758

19,208

19,208

19,208

18,648

18,648

18,648

Not Clearly Identifiable Energy Sources


Net Generating Capacity (NGC)
(6=1+2+3+4+5)
Non-Usable Capacity

7,487

5,327

8,127

7,487

5,311

8,111

7,487

5,294

8,094

Maintenance and Overhauls

0,500

0,000

0,000

0,500

0,000

0,000

0,500

0,000

0,000

Outages

1,100

1,100

1,100

1,100

1,100

1,100

1,100

1,100

1,100

10

System Services Reserve


Unavailable Capacity (UC)
(11=7+8+9+10)
Reliably Available Capacity (RAC)
(12=6-11)
Load

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,000

10,087

7,427

10,227

10,087

7,411

10,211

10,087

7,394

10,194

9,671

12,331

9,531

9,121

11,798

8,998

8,561

11,254

8,454

9,014

10,436

9,398

9,014

10,436

9,398

9,014

10,436

9,398

0,500

1,000

1,200

0,500

1,000

1,200

0,500

1,000

1,200

1,157

2,896

1,333

0,607

2,362

0,799

0,047

1,819

0,256

0,988

5
6

11
12
13
14
15
16

Load Management
Remaining Capacity (RC)
(15=12-13+14)
Spare Capacity (5% of NGC)

0,988

0,988

0,960

0,960

0,960

0,932

0,932

0,932

1,312

1,061

1,264

1,312

1,061

1,264

1,312

18

Margin Against Seasonal Peak Load


1,061
1,264
Adequacy Reference Margin (ARM)
2,049
2,252
(18=16+17)
Simultaneous Interconnection Transmission Capacity

2,300

2,022

2,225

2,272

1,994

2,197

2,244

19

Import Capacity

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

20

Export Capacity

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

17

60

2013-2020

10.2.
. 10.5:
GW

Lignite
Hard Coal
Gas

0,000
8,565
4,418
0,000
4,147

2013

0,000
8,565
4,418
0,000
4,147

0,000
8,565
4,418
0,000
4,147

0,000
9,388
4,186
0,000
5,202

2016

0,000
9,388
4,186
0,000
5,202

0,000
9,388
4,186
0,000
5,202

0,000
9,734
4,532
0,000
5,202

2020

0,000
9,734
4,532
0,000
5,202

0,000
9,734
4,532
0,000
5,202

Oil

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

3,905

3,905

3,905

5,499

5,499

5,499

8,140

8,140

8,140

3A

Wind Power

1,500

1,500

1,500

1,960

1,960

1,960

3,000

3,000

3,000

3B

Solar Power

2,270

2,270

2,270

3,220

3,220

3,220

4,500

4,500

4,500

3C

Biomass

0,045

0,045

0,045

0,146

0,146

0,146

0,250

0,250

0,250

Other

0,090

0,090

0,090

0,173

0,173

0,173

0,390

0,390

0,390

3,236

3,236

3,236

3,436

3,436

3,436

4,099

4,099

4,099


1
2
2A
2B
2C

Nuclear Power
Fossil Fuels

2D
3

Renewable Energy Sources

3D
4

Hydro power

4A

Run-of-River Hydro

0,218

0,218

0,218

0,236

0,236

0,236

0,300

0,300

0,300

4B

Storage and Pumped-Storage Hydro

3,018

3,018

3,018

3,200

3,200

3,200

3,799

3,799

3,799

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

15,706

15,706

15,706

18,322

18,322

18,322

21,973

21,973

21,973

Not Clearly Identifiable Energy Sources


Net Generating Capacity (NGC)
(6=1+2+3+4+5)
Non-Usable Capacity

4,314

3,272

4,861

6,346

4,737

6,991

8,896

6,402

9,552

Maintenance and Overhauls

0,500

0,000

0,000

0,500

0,000

0,000

0,500

0,000

0,000

Outages

0,600

0,600

0,600

0,900

0,900

0,900

1,100

1,100

1,100

10

System Services Reserve


Unavailable Capacity (UC)
(11=7+8+9+10)
Reliably Available Capacity (RAC)
(12=6-11)
Load

0,600

0,600

0,600

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,000

6,014

4,472

6,061

8,746

6,637

8,891

11,496

8,502

11,652

9,692

11,234

9,645

9,577

11,685

9,431

10,477

13,470

10,320

7,743

8,964

8,073

7,974

9,231

8,314

9,014

10,436

9,398

0,000

0,500

0,500

0,300

0,700

0,900

0,500

1,000

1,200

1,949

2,770

2,072

1,903

3,154

2,017

1,963

4,035

2,122

0,785

0,785

0,785

0,916

0,916

0,916

1,099

1,099

1,099

1,127

0,939

1,119

1,151

1,061

1,264

1,312

18

Margin Against Seasonal Peak Load


0,911
1,086
Adequacy Reference Margin (ARM)
1,697
1,871
(18=16+17)
Simultaneous Interconnection Transmission Capacity

1,912

1,855

2,035

2,067

2,160

2,363

2,410

19

Import Capacity

1,800

1,800

1,800

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

20

Export Capacity

1,800

1,800

1,800

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

5
6

11
12
13
14
15
16
17

Load Management
Remaining Capacity (RC)
(15=12-13+14)
Spare Capacity (5% of NGC)

61

2013-2020

. 10.6: 2016 (
)
GW

Lignite
Hard Coal
Gas

0,000
9,388
4,186
0,000
5,202

0,000
9,388
4,186
0,000
5,202

0,000
9,388
4,186
0,000
5,202

Oil

0,000

0,000

0,000


1
2
2A
2B
2C

Nuclear Power
Fossil Fuels

2D
3

Renewable Energy Sources

4
2016
-

0,000
0,000
0,000
9,114
9,114
9,114
3,912
3,912
3,912
0,000
0,000
0,000
5,202
5,202
5,202
0,000

0,000

0,000

5,499

5,499

5,499

5,499

5,499

5,499

3A

Wind Power

1,960

1,960

1,960

1,960

1,960

1,960

3B

Solar Power

3,220

3,220

3,220

3,220

3,220

3,220

3C

Biomass

0,146

0,146

0,146

0,146

0,146

0,146

3D

Other

0,173

0,173

0,173

0,173

0,173

0,173

Hydro power

4A
4B

3,436

3,436

3,436

3,436

3,436

3,436

Run-of-River Hydro

0,236

0,236

0,236

0,236

0,236

0,236

Storage and Pumped-Storage Hydro

3,200

3,200

3,200

3,200

3,200

3,200

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

18,322

18,322

18,322

18,048

18,048

18,048

Not Clearly Identifiable Energy Sources


Net Generating Capacity (NGC)
(6=1+2+3+4+5)
Non-Usable Capacity

6,346

4,737

6,991

6,346

4,729

6,983

Maintenance and Overhauls

0,500

0,000

0,000

0,500

0,000

0,000

Outages

0,900

0,900

0,900

0,900

0,900

0,900

10

System Services Reserve


Unavailable Capacity (UC)
(11=7+8+9+10)
Reliably Available Capacity (RAC)
(12=6-11)
Load

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,000

8,746

6,637

8,891

8,746

6,629

8,883

9,577

11,685

9,431

9,303

11,419

9,165

7,974

9,231

8,314

7,974

9,231

8,314

0,300

0,700

0,900

0,300

0,700

0,900

1,903

3,154

2,017

1,629

2,888

1,751

0,916

0,916

0,916

0,902

0,902

0,902

1,151

0,939

1,119

1,151

18

Margin Against Seasonal Peak Load


0,939
1,119
Adequacy Reference Margin (ARM)
1,855
2,035
(18=16+17)
Simultaneous Interconnection Transmission Capacity

2,067

1,841

2,021

2,054

19

Import Capacity

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

20

Export Capacity

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

5
6

11
12
13
14
15
16
17

Load Management
Remaining Capacity (RC)
(15=12-13+14)
Spare Capacity (5% of NGC)

62

2013-2020

. 10.7: 2020
( )
GW

0,000
0,000
9,188
9,188
3,986
3,986
0,000
0,000
5,202
5,202

Lignite
Hard Coal
Gas

0,000
9,188
3,986
0,000
5,202

Oil

0,000
8,140

8,140

8,140

3A

Wind Power

3,000

3,000

3,000

3B

Solar Power

4,500

4,500

4,500

3C

Biomass

0,250

0,250

3D

Other

0,390

0,390

4,099

4,099

4,099

Run-of-River Hydro

0,300

0,300

0,300


1
2
2A
2B
2C

Nuclear Power
Fossil Fuels

2D
3

Renewable Energy Sources

Hydro power

4A
4B

0,000

0,000

0,000
8,638
3,436
0,000
5,202
0,000

0,000
0,000
8,638
8,638
3,436
3,436
0,000
0,000
5,202
5,202

0,000
8,078
2,876
0,000
5,202

0,000
0,000
8,078
8,078
2,876
2,876
0,000
0,000
5,202
5,202

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

8,140

8,140

8,140

8,140

8,140

8,140

3,000

3,000

3,000

3,000

3,000

3,000

4,500

4,500

4,500

4,500

4,500

4,500

0,250

0,250

0,250

0,250

0,250

0,250

0,250

0,390

0,390

0,390

0,390

0,390

0,390

0,390

4,099

4,099

4,099

4,099

4,099

4,099

0,300

0,300

0,300

0,300

0,300

0,300

Storage and Pumped-Storage Hydro

3,799

3,799

3,799

3,799

3,799

3,799

3,799

3,799

3,799

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

0,000

21,427

21,427

21,427

20,877

20,877

20,877

20,317

20,317

20,317

Not Clearly Identifiable Energy Sources


Net Generating Capacity (NGC)
(6=1+2+3+4+5)
Non-Usable Capacity

8,896

6,386

9,536

8,896

6,369

9,519

8,896

6,353

9,503

Maintenance and Overhauls

0,500

0,000

0,000

0,500

0,000

0,000

0,500

0,000

0,000

Outages

1,100

1,100

1,100

1,100

1,100

1,100

1,100

1,100

1,100

10

System Services Reserve


Unavailable Capacity (UC)
(11=7+8+9+10)
Reliably Available Capacity (RAC)
(12=6-11)
Load

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,000

1,000

11,496

8,486

11,636

11,496

8,469

11,619

11,496

8,453

11,603

9,931

12,941

9,791

9,381

12,407

9,257

8,821

11,864

8,714

9,014

10,436

9,398

9,014

10,436

9,398

9,014

10,436

9,398

0,500

1,000

1,200

0,500

1,000

1,200

0,500

1,000

1,200

1,417

3,505

1,593

0,867

2,972

1,059

0,307

2,429

0,516

1,071

5
6

11
12
13
14
15
16

Load Management
Remaining Capacity (RC)
(15=12-13+14)
Spare Capacity (5% of NGC)

1,071

1,071

1,044

1,044

1,044

1,016

1,016

1,016

1,312

1,061

1,264

1,312

1,061

1,264

1,312

18

Margin Against Seasonal Peak Load


1,061
1,264
Adequacy Reference Margin (ARM)
2,132
2,336
(18=16+17)
Simultaneous Interconnection Transmission Capacity

2,383

2,105

2,308

2,356

2,077

2,280

2,328

19

Import Capacity

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

20

Export Capacity

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

2,000

17

63

2013-2020

11. :
LOLP
LOL
,
.
(,
, ) LOL .
LOL LOLP
100 MW :
Year 2020
Period of Study
===============
Start (d/m) = 1 / 1
End (d/m) = 24 / 1
Number of Units = 3
(MAX = 100)
=====================
Use of Hydro = 85.0(%)
=====================
No of Name
Units

Power FOR

MAINTENANCE

(MW) (%)

PERIOD 1

PERIOD 2

================================ D1 M1 D2 M2 D3 M3 D4 M4
1. UNIT 1

20. 10.00

0.

0.

0.

0.

0.

0.

0.

0.

2. UNIT 2

40. 15.00

0.

0.

0.

0.

0.

0.

0.

0.

3. UNIT 3

40. 20.00

0.

0.

0.

0.

0.

0.

0.

0.

Period Results
==============
Installed Net Capacity

100. MW

Installed Net Hydro Capacity =

0. MW

Use Net Hydro Capacity

0. MW

Period Peak Load

=
=

LOLP at Period Peak Load

81.
=

MW DAY :18/01

0.388 (hrs)

64

2013-2020

Max. Period LOLP of Daily Peak Loads


==============================
DAY : 18/01

Max. Daily LOLP =

0.388 (hrs)

Peak Load

Operat. Capacity

= 100. MW

Maint. Capacity

81. MW
0. MW

-----------------------------------------------------------Daily Results from 1 / 1 to 24 / 1


Day

Capacity

Peak

Hourly

Operat.

Maint.

Load

LOLE

LOLP

(MW)

(MW)

(MW)

(hrs)

(%)

=======================================
01/01
02/01
03/01
04/01
05/01
06/01
07/01
08/01
09/01
10/01
11/01
12/01
13/01
14/01
15/01
16/01
17/01
18/01
19/01
20/01
21/01
22/01
23/01
24/01

10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.

0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.

50.
45.
31.
29.
29.
31.
55.
63.
70.
72.
72.
70.
70.
70.
67.
68.
79.
81.
79.
75.
65.
59.
57.
42.

0.05900
0.05900
0.03000
0.03000
0.03000
0.03000
0.05900
0.32000
0.32000
0.32000
0.32000
0.32000
0.32000
0.32000
0.32000
0.32000
0.32000
0.38800
0.32000
0.32000
0.32000
0.05900
0.05900
0.05900

5.90
5.90
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
5.90
32.00
32.00
32.00
32.00
32.00
32.00
32.00
32.00
32.00
32.00
38.80
32.00
32.00
32.00
5.90
5.90
5.90

===============
LOLE =
5.02200

20.92

65

2013-2020

12. IV: EFORD


. 12.1 EFORD

LOLE.
. 12.1: EFORD

.
.
.
. V
. V




V


V



V

V


. 8
. 9
...
... IV
... V

.

ELPEDISON_
PROTERGIA_CC
KORINTHOS_POWER


V
V
V

66


(MW)
274
274
283
283
342
273
273
289
275
275
280
280
116
116
274
30
8
255
256
144
144
123
287
151
188
173,4
550,2
377,66
476,3
389,38
422,142
410
432,7
433,46
49,254
49,254
49,254
326
417
811
620

EFORD
(%)
8,302
7,534
7,074
10,421
5,952
11,284
11,472
10,613
9,991
7,607
10,539
18,057
27,330
28,400
27,080
6,420
6,420
20,485
7,265
0,749
1,767
3,018
8,969
14,231
3,229
11,550
7,856
3,198
6,497
7,342
5,670
5,670
5,670
5,670
6,673
7,788
7,383
5,670
5,670
5,670
6,420