ADMHE Meleti Eparkeias Final

2013 2020
, 2013
2013-2020

1.
...................................................................................................................................... 1
1.1. ....................................................................................................................... 1
1.2. .......................................................................................................... 1
1.2.1. ................................................................................................................................ 1
1.2.2. ....................................................................................................................... 1
1.2.3. ............................................................................................................. 2
2.
.............................................................................................. 3
2.1. ...................................................................................................................... 3
2.2. ............................................................................................... 5
3.
........................................................................................................................... 8
3.1. ...................................................................................................................... 8
3.2. ................................................................................... 10
4.
............................................................................................... 14
4.1. ........................................................ 14
4.2. .................................................................................................................. 14
4.2.1. ..................................................................................................... 14
4.2.2. ................................................................................................................... 16
4.2.3. ..................................................................................................... 16
4.3. ....................................................................................................... 17
4.3.1. ..................................................................................................... 17
4.3.2. ................................................................................................................... 18
4.4. ................................................................................................................... 19
4.4.1. .................................................................................................. 19
4.4.2. ........................................................................................... 20
4.5. ............................................ 21
5.
............................................................................................................................. 23
5.1. ...................................................................................................................................... 23
5.2. ........................................................................................ 24
5.3. ...................................................................... 24
6.
.............................................................................. 27
6.1. ............................................................................................................. 27
6.1.1. .............................................................................................. 28
6.1.2. .............................................................................................................................. 29
6.1.3. ................................................................................................................... 29
6.1.4. ........................................................................................................ 30
6.1.5. ............................................................................. 31
6.2. ................................................................................................. 31
6.2.1. ................................................................................................................. 31
6.2.2. 2013 ................................................................. 33
6.2.3. 2016 .................................................. 34
6.2.4. 2020.......................... 35
7.
........................................................................................ 38
7.1. () ....................................................................................... 38
7.1.1. ....................................................................................................... 39
7.2. ................................................................................................................................ 39
7.2.1. .......................................................................................... 39
7.2.2. .............................................................................................................................. 41
7.3. ......................................................................................................................... 42
7.3.1. ................................................................................................................ 42
7.3.2. 2013 ................................................................. 42
7.3.3. 2016 .................................................. 44
7.3.4. 2020.......................... 46
7.3.5. 2020........................................................................... 48
2013-2020
8.
......................................................................................................................... 50
9.
: ENTSO-E ...................................... 52
9.1. ................................................................................................................................... 52
9.1.1. (Reference points) ............................................................... 52
9.1.2. (Load) .................................................................................................................. 52
9.1.3. (Load Management) ........................................................................ 52
9.1.4. (Net Generating Capacity)........................................................................ 52
9.1.5. (Unavailable Capacity) .................................................................. 52
9.1.5.1. (Non-Usable Capacity) ............................................. 53
9.1.5.2. (Maintenance and Overhauls) ................................................................ 53
9.1.5.3. (Outages) ................................................................. 53
9.1.5.4. (System Services Reserve) ................................................... 54
9.1.6. (Peak Load)............................................................................................. 54
9.1.7. (Margin against Seasonal Peak Load) 54
9.1.8. (Spare Capacity)..................................................................................... 54
9.1.9. (Simultaneous Interconnection
Transmission Capacities) ................................................................................................. 54
9.2. ................................................................................................................ 54
9.2.1. (Reliably Available Capacity)............................................. 55
9.2.2. (Remaining Capacity)........................................................................... 56
9.2.3. (Adequacy Reference Margin) ..................................................... 56
9.3. ................................................... 56
9.3.1. , ................ 56
9.3.2. .............................. 56
10.
:
ENTSO-E................................................................................................................................... 57
10.1. ....................................................................................................................... 57
10.2. .................................................................................................................. 61
11.
: LOLP ............................ 64
12.
IV: EFORD ........................................................................... 66
ii
2013-2020
1.
1.1.
4 95 .4001/2011

,
, .
,
,
,
.

,

, , 95
.4001/2011, ,
.
1.2.
1.2.1.

.
,
,
.
, 210 , ,
,
, ,

( ) .
1.2.2.

.

.

,
. ,
1
2013-2020
,

,

.
1.2.3.

( ) :
( )

. ,
, .
,
. ,

.
,
,
.
2013 2020
,
. ,
ENTSO-E
,
LOLE (Loss of Load Expectation) 2013, 2016 2020.
2 5
,

.
6
ENTSO-E,
Scenario Outlook & Adequacy Forecast
(SO&AF).
2013 2020.
7
LOLE (Loss of Load Expectation)
2013 2020.
2013-2020
2.
2.1.
2.1
( ,
) 2000 . 2000 2008
. ,
, .
TWh
GW
60
12
55
11
50
10
45
40
(TWh)
35
(GW)
8
7
6
30
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
2.1:
( ) 2000 - 2012
20002008 3.1%, .
2008, , (
) 56.3 TWh, 1.11%
2007. 2009
, 5.01% 2008,
20.19% 2008,
3.63%. 2012

2011, 2008 2012
6% .
, ,
.. ..,
/
.
. 2.1 ,
, ,
. 2004
.
2012, ,
, 2,6 TWh.
3
2013-2020
. 2.1:
2002
5-
5-
3-
(*) 10-
(GWh)
2003-2012 2003-2007 2008-2012 2010-2012
(GWh)
46 974
46 974
2003
49 732
5.87%
49 732
5.87%
2004
50 954
2.46%
51 225
3.00%
2005
52 553
3.14%
52 880
3.23%
2006
53 597
1.99%
53 990
2.10%
2007
55 253
3.09%
55 690
3.15%
2008
55 675
0.76%
56 310
1.11%
2009
52 436
-5.56%
53 490
-5.01%
2010
52 329
-0.20%
53 545
0.10%
2011
51 492
-1.60%
52 915
-1.18%
2012
50 289
-2.34%
52 862
-0.10%
2.87%
0.68%
-1.57%
-0.64%
2013**
(22 523)
(24 529)
(*) .. .
.
.
(**)
2.2
( ) 2004 2012.
2.2: 2004 2012

. 2.2
2009 2012.
2013-2020
. 2.2: 2009-2012
2009
2010
2011
2012
4477
4049
4288
3725
3846
4102
5371
4764
4280
3946
4250
4394
51492
4637
4289
4067
3389
3643
4304
5438
4765
3825
3727
3770
4437
50289
(GWh)
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
4564
4174
4289
3793
4113
4571
5408
4756
4135
4104
4096
4433
52436
4545
3994
4196
3790
4073
4474
5270
5382
4171
4034
3962
4438
52329
,
2011
2012, ,
.
2.3 2004 2012.
2.3: 2004
2012( )
2.2.

- :
, .
(,
, , ...)
,
(.. ).

( , ...).
(.. ).
2013-2020
,
, ...

(2013-2023)

( , ),
.
(

,
). : ANA,
.

(
) 2012 2023,
. 2.3. 2017, . 2.3
, 2020 ,
2019
.
. 2.3:
(2012-2023)
(GWh)
2012
52862
52862
52862
2013
53020
53285
53390
2014
53180
53710
53925
2015
53340
54140
54460
2016
53765
54840
55445
2017
54620
56000
56900
2018
55050
56720
57920
2019
55720
57740
59190
2020
59600
62040
63800
2021
60480
63250
65350
2022
61370
64490
66940
2023
62280
65750
68580

2012, .

. ,
,
. ,
2013-2020
,
. ,
, ,
.
,
2014, 2018 ( )
2008.
,
2015
(1%). ,
.

,
2000-2010 (1.5%).

2015
(0.5%). ,

().
2013-2020
3.
3.1.
. 3.1 ( ),
2002 , . 3.2
( ) 2009 2012.
. 3.1:
(1)
(MW)
2002
8924 (2)
2003
9042 (2)
2004
2005
2006
9370
3.63%
(2)
1.29%
9889
3.6%
4.19%
10411
(2)
5.28%
2008
10217
(2)
-1.86%
2009
9762 (5)
-4.45%
2010
9794
(5)
0.33%
2011
9868 (5)
0.76%
2007
10-
5-
5-
3-
2003-2012 2003-2007 2008-2012 2010-2012
1.32%
(3, 4)
9491
0.8%
-1.2%
-0.3%
(5)
(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)
2012
9735
-1.35%
.
,
150 MW 2002 ( 9100 MW), 70
MW 2003 ( 9112 MW), 165 MW 2005 ( 9651 MW), 500
MW 2007 ( 10911 MW) 150 MW 2008 ( 10367
MW)
Black-Out 12/7/2004, 12:39
9600 MW 2004 ( Black-Out)
, 47 MW
2009 ( 9809 MW), 78 MW 2010 ( 9872 MW), 145 MW
2011 ( 10013 MW) 638 MW 2012 ( 10373 MW)
2009 2012
.
3.1
2009 .
2013-2020

10600
10400
10200
(MW)
10000
9800
9600
9400
9200
9000
2009
2010
2011
2012
3.1:
. 3.2: ( ) 2009-2012
2009
2010
2011
2012
8027
8153
8299
7041
6755
7564
9868
8314
7981
7298
7965
7834
8734
8529
8080
6726
6517
8361
9735
8809
7440
6973
7279
8470
(MW)
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
8332
8288
7718
7157
7461
9035
9762
9329
8294
7290
7711
8060
8714
8317
7863
7065
7341
9732
9794
9441
7588
7349
7251
8457
1993
( 2005 2006,
),
.
. 3.3
10-. . 3.4
2010 2012.
, .
2013-2020
. 3.3:
(1)
(MW)

. (%)

10-
5-
3-
2003-2012
2002
2907
2003
2989
2.82
2004
3155
5.55
2005
3214
1.87
2006
3201
-0.40
2007
3429
7.12
2008
3411
-0.52
2009
3238
-5.07
2010
3326
2.72
2011
3356
0.90
2008-2012
2010-2012
0.10%
-3.04%
-4,79%
2012
3015
-10.17
(1)
. 3.4: ( ) 2010-2012
2010
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
.
3.2.
2011
(MW)
4085
4200
3920
3404
3356
3837
4703
4411
4068
3836
4004
4067
3789
3937
3843
3326
3642
3834
4486
4950
3963
3738
3766
3836
2012
4121
4152
3587
3015
3348
3575
4880
4434
3807
3650
3605
3733

. ,
, ,
,
. . ,
.
, ,

10
2013-2020
,
.

60.5% .
.
,
: , , .
3.5. ,
.

/.
. 3.5: (
)
(MW)
2012
10373
10373
10373
2013
10000
10050
10075
2014
10030
10130
10175
2015
10065
10215
10275
2016
10145
10350
10460
2017
10310
10570
10740
2018
10390
10700
10930
2019
10510
10900
11170
2020
11245
11700
12040
2021
11410
11930
12330
2022
11580
12170
12630
2023
11750
12400
12940
, 2400MW /,
. ,
, 2013 , 1400 1700 MW
. 3.5, / .
2013 ,
,
, ,
/. 3.2 3.3
, 3.4
2013.
,
. . 3.6
,
.
11
2013-2020
8.500
13
8.000
12
11
7.500
10
09
7.000
08
6.500
6.000
5.500
5.000
4.500
4.000
3.500
1
10 11
12 13
14 15
16 17
18
19 20
21 22
23 24
3.2:
9.500
13
12
9.000
11
8.500
10
09
8.000
08
7.500
7.000
6.500
6.000
5.500
5.000
4.500
1
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
3.3:
12
22
23
24
2013-2020
1,0
2008
2013
0,9
0,8
0,7
0,6
0,5
0,4
0,3
3.4: 2013
. 3.6:
(MW)
2012
9163
9163
9163
2013
9150
9200
9215
2014
9180
9270
9310
2015
9200
9350
9400
2016
9280
9465
9570
2017
9430
9670
9820
2018
9500
9790
10000
2019
9620
9970
10215
2020
10290
10710
11010
2021
10440
10920
11280
2022
10590
11130
11550
2023
10750
11350
11840
13
2013-2020
4.
4.1.
17,4 GW. . 4.1

.

, .
. 4.1:
(1/6/2013)
4.2.

(MW)
(%)
10.238,5
58,8
3.017,7
17,3
4.169,81
23,9
17.426,01
100,0
4.2.1.
(58.8%
) , ,
, . 4.2.
(78.6% 2012).
,
, .
,
30% .

,
, 3700 MW
.
2032 MW.
14
2013-2020
. 4.2:
(MW)
(MW)

.
.
.
.
.
.
.
. IV
.
. V

II

III

V

III

IV

IV
:
300
300
310
310
375
300
300
300
300
306
306
33
10
300
300
330
125
125
300
4930
274
274
283
283
342
273
273
275
275
280
280
30
8
255
256
289
116
116
274
4456

V

:
150
150
130
300
730
144
144
123
287
698
484,6
176,5
560
385,2
395
476,3
173,4
550,2
377,6
389,4
()

( )

V ( )

V ( )
ELPEDISON

POWER
.
.
ELPEDISON

PROTERGIA
.
.
:
432
422,1
436,6
421,6
444,5
3736
433,5
410
432,7
3665,2

.
. VIII
.
.

3
:
160
200
148,5
508,5
151
188
147,8
486,8

3
:
334
334
334
334
:
10238,5
9640
1. .
2. 40 MW.
15
2013-2020
4.2.2.
,
,

,
.

, , .

:
.. ,
417 MW
.. ,
811 MW , .
.., 620 MW,

.

,
.
4.2.3.

, ..
. ..
. . 4.3
..
.
. 4.3: .. 2020

(MW)
. 8
. 9
3
4
1
2
3
2
3
4
151
188
144
144
123
287
173
38
117
116
274
1755
. 4.3, 2020
, 273 MW ,
( 1110 MW). .
16
2013-2020
4.3.
4.3.1.
(. 4.4) .

(~17%), .

. . 4.5
/ ,
10-20%,
. 4.1
2007-2012.
. 4.4: *
II
I, II
I, II
-I
I-IV
I-IV
,
I, II
I-III
,
-I
I, I-III
I, I-II
I, III
I, II
-
(MW)
(MW)
2x25
2x54
19
3x128
4x80
4x109.3
2x35
2x105
3x43.3
2x58
3x125
3x100
2x16
1.6
2x75
3x105
2x25
2x54
19
3x128
4x80
4x109.3
2x35
2x105
3x43.3
2x58
3x125
3x100
2x16
1.6
2x75
3x105
3017.7
3017.7
9
. 3468/06
17
2013-2020
2007 - 2012
(GWh)
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
3200
2800
2400
2000
1600
1200
800
4.1: 2007-2012
. 4.5: / ( )
10-
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007*
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
.
.
(MW)
(GWh)
3059.7
3059.7
3059.7
3059.7
3059.7
3059.7
3017.7
3017.7
3017.7
3017.7
3017.7
3017.7
2665.4
3381.3
5211.3
4926.6
5420.5
6229.4
3142.7
2973.5
4955.4
6702.6
3675.5
3891.7
(%)
9.94
12.62
19.44
18.33
20.22
23.24
11.89
11.22
18.75
25.35
13.90
14.68
* 2007 , 9
.3468/2006
4.3.2.
2013 7
780 MW. , 4
335MW .
(2013-2020)
:
.. ,
153 MW, .
.. ,
160 MW
.
.. , 29 MW,
18
2013-2020

, 60 MW, .
.. , 126,5 MW
.. , 160 MW
4.4.
4.4.1.

28,5 GW . (/)
(/) , ,
(), ().

().
2013,
4170 MW, 1495 MW / 2322
MW / ( / 1079/2009).
, ( )
600
5665 MW (
. 3851/2010). , 2161 / 4165
MW , 600 MW,
.
/
4800 MW, .
. 4.6
. ,
2 MW.
. 4.6: 9 . 3468/06 ( )
( 2013)
(MW)

13178
4165
288
77
0
0
1087
1381
206
42
14759
5665

1495
218
901
23222
463
4170
1 .

2
.
3

19
2013-2020
. 4.7
2008 2012.
( ) 3,87% 2008 11,25% 2012.
2012 3892 GWh (
7,7% )
18,94% 18,65% .
. 4.7: 9 .
3468/06 ( )
/4
MW
GWh
MW
GWh
MW
GWh
MW
GWh MW GWh
MW
GWh
2008
791
1661
11
158
325
39
177
63
35
1062
2203
2009
917
1908
46
45
183
657
41
182
141
144
1327
2937
2010
1039
2062
153
132
197
754
41
194
125
115
1555
3256
2011
1363
2596
439
442
205
581
45
199
89
142
2141
3959
2012
1466
3161
1126
1510
213
669
45
197
90
149
2940
5686
4.4.2.

.
,
.

.
. 4.8:
2013
1500
2270
218
45
90
4118

2016
2020
(MW)
1920
2800
3120
4000
226
250
136
200
119
119
5521
7369

2016
2020
1960
3220
236
146
173
5735
3000
4500
300
250
390
8440
2012 / 1079/2009
20
2013-2020
4.5.

2013-2020.
,
. ,
1.1.1
4.3.2,
. 4.3.
. 4.8.

4.3.2,
. 4.8.
. 4.9 .
. 4.9:
(MW)
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
2250
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
2570
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
1755
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
9
1755

2014
2014
2015
2015
2019
2020
2020
2020
2020
2020
V
417
153
V
811
29
5
620
160
(TERNA)
60
. ()
93
126,5
160
2013 2020 (MW)

2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2013
2014
2014
2015
2017
38
. 8
151
. 9
188
3
144
4
144
1
123
2
287
3
173
2
117
3
116
4
274
2013 2020 (MW)
21
2013-2020
2013, . 4.9,
,
. 4.2.
2016
4 . 2016,
5
400 MW.
, 2020
,
. , 2020
:
1: 1 2 , 273 MW ,
.
2: 1 2 1 2
, 275 MW
.
3: 1 2 1 - 4

22
2013-2020
5.
5.1.
, ,
,

.
,
,
.

.
,
.
( )
,
(
).

,

.

, ..
ENTSO-E,
(target model)
2014.

:

,
(cross-border) , ,
.
,
, .

,
.
23
2013-2020
5.2.
2004

ENTSO-E (European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity),

2009 UCTE (Union pour la Coordination du Transport de l
Electricit).
.., 400 kV, ,
(FYROM). ,
( ) . 18
2010, ,
.
.
ENTSO-E.
5.1,
, ,
.
Rosiori
Becescaba
HU
Pince
Heviz
Udine(IT)
Okroglo
Nadab
Sandorfalva
Cirkovce
Cirkovc
e
Krsk
Krsko
o
Pecs
SI
RO
Arad
Divaca
Resita
Sombor Subotica
Zerjavinec
Tumbri
Ernestinovo
Meline
Pancevo
Italy
IsacceaIsacce
S. Mitrovica
BB .. Luka
Luka
HR
Ugljevik
Konjsk
o
Mostar
Mostar
Portile de
Fier
Djerdap
BA
SR
Konjsko
Ribarevin
Kozloduj
Nis
Ribarevine
e
Trebinj
Trebinje
e
Podgorica
Sofia
Sofia
West
West
KosovoB
Podgorica
C . Mogil
Mogila
a
ME
Skopje5
Tirana
FYROM
Tiran
a
Italy
Stip
Dubrovo
Bitola
BG
Varna
Varna
Dobruja
Maritza 3
Blagoevgrad
Hamidabat
N.Santa
Elbasan
Elbasa
Babaeski
AL
400 kV
DCLinkto
Italy
Zemblak
Tintareni
Thessaloniki
Florina
TR
Kardia
GR
Arachtho
Arachthos
s
5.1:
5.3.
5.2 ( )
, . 5.1
.
24
2013-2020
( 2000
). 5.3
2012,
,
, .... . , . 5.2
2008
2013.
TWh
6
( - )
5
4
3
2
1
0
1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
5.2: 1997 2012
. 5.1: 10-
(GWh)
(GWh)
(GWh)
2001
3562.00
1061.62
2500.39
2002
4601.88
1705.35
2896.53
2003
4168.91
2093.29
2075.62
4853.99
2033.41
2820.58
2005
5616.42
1835.51
3780.91
2006
6139.46
1937.08
4202.38
2007
6411.50
2057.31
4354.19
2008
7574.76
1960.79
5613.97
2009
7600.77
3233.07
4367.70
2010
8517.36
2811.23
5706.13
2011
7179.77
3947.44
3232.33
2012
5954.04
4169.88
1784.17
2004
,

.
25
2013-2020
2301 GWh
FYRO M
1457 GWh
2 GWh
147 GWh
-1463 GWh
1480 GWh
1699 GWh
2303 GWh
1703 GWh
1604 GWh
-2210 GWh
17 GWh
2536 GWh
327 GWh
4 GWh
5.3: 2012
. 5.2: 2008 - 2013

2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013**
(MW)
*
800
800
800
1200
1200
1300
500
500
500
500
500
500
* 2011
** 2013 ,
26
2013-2020
6.

2013-2020 ENTSO-E,
Scenario Outlook & Adequacy Forecast (SO&AF).

- ,
, - ENTSO-E .
ENTSO-E
.
2013, 2016 2020.
.
6.1.
ENTSOE ,
.
,
, 6.1:
(Reliably Available Capacity, RAC):

.
(Remaining Capacity, RC):

.
(Adequacy Reference Margin, ARM):

,

(security of
supply).
,
RC. ,
.
, , .
, RC ,

.
,
, RC ARM.
RC ARM
,
, .
, RC ARM,

27
2013-2020
. ,
.
6.1: ENTSO-E

9.
ENTSO-E
2-5, ,
.
6.1.1.
ENTSO-E
(9.1.1).

, ,

. ,
:
: 19 (
18:00 CET 19:00 CET)
: 11 (
10:00 CEST 11:00 CEST)
: 19 (
18:00 CEST 19:00 CEST)
28
2013-2020
6.1.2.
ENTSO-E
(3.2). ,

,
. 6.1.
, . 6.1
.
,
.
. 6.1:
2013
2016
2020
(W)

8654
8913
10075
7743
7974
9014
911
939
1061
0
300
500

10050
10350
11700
8964
9231
10436
1086
1119
1264
500
700
1000

9200
9465
10710
8073
8314
9398
1127
1151
1312
500
900
1200
6.1.3.
ENTSO-E

4.5, ,

4.5.
. 6.2
.
29
2013-2020
. 6.2:

2013
2016
2020

8,565
3,236
3,905
15,706
9,388
3,426
5,295
18,108

2013
2016
2020
(GW)
9,734
8,565
3,452
3,236
7,119
3,905
20,304
15,706
9,388
3,436
5,499
18,322
9,734
4,099
8,140
21,973
2016

4
9,114
3,426
5,295
17,834

4
9,114
3,436
5,499
18,048
2020
1
9,188
3,452
7,119
19,758
2
8,638
3,452
7,119
19,208
3
8,078
3,452
7,119
18,648
1
9,188
4,099
8,140
21,427
2
8,638
4,099
8,140
20,877
3
8,078
4,099
8,140
20,317
6.1.4.

(Non-Usable Capacity), (Maintenance and
Overhauls), (Outages) (System Services Reserves).
Non-Usable Capacity
(9.1.5.1),
,
, , ,
, ,
. Non-Usable Capacity
:
,
3% , 1% 10%

2200 MW

70% , (
)
10%
, 40%,
60%, 70%.
30
2013-2020
,
, 500 MW
. ,

600 MW 2013 1100 MW 2020. ,
600 MW 2013, ,
1000 MW.
6.1.5.
,
2013 1800 MW. 2000
MW 2016 .
6.2.
6.2.1.
ENTSO-E
2013 2020
. 6.3,
6.2 6.3.
(. 10).
. 6.3: 2013 - 2020
2013
2016
(GW)
2020
18,11
20,30
20,30
20,30

Net Generating Capacity (NGC)
15,71
15,71
15,71
18,11
18,11
Reliably Available Capacity (RAC)
9,69
11,23
Remaining Capacity (RC)
1,95
2,77
9,64
9,52
11,56
9,38
10,22
12,86
10,06
2,07
1,85
3,03
1,97
1,70
3,43
1,86
Adequacy Reference Margin (ARM)
1,70
RC ARM
0,25
1,87
1,91
1,84
2,02
2,06
2,08
2,28
2,33
0,90
0,16
0,01
1,01
-0,09
-0,37
1,15
-0,46
18,32
21,97
21,97
21,97

15,71
15,71
15,71
18,32
18,32
9,69
11,23
1,95
2,77
9,64
9,58
11,68
9,43
10,48
13,47
10,32
2,07
1,90
3,15
2,02
1,96
4,03
2,12
1,70
RC ARM
0,25
1,87
1,91
1,85
2,03
2,07
2,16
2,36
2,41
0,90
0,16
0,05
1,12
-0,05
-0,20
1,67
-0,29
31
2013-2020
RC - ARM
(GW)
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
2013
-0,5
2016
-1,0
-1,5
2020

-2,0
-2,5
6.2: RC ARM 2013 - 2020

(. 6.3) RC
(Remaining Capacity) ,
2013 2020, RC-ARM
2020 2016.

. 2016
. 2020
370 MW 460 MW.

.
RC - ARM
(GW)
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
-0,5
2013
2016
-1,0
-1,5
2020

-2,0
-2,5
6.3: RC ARM 2013 - 2020

(. 6.3)
2013 2020,
. ,
2020 1670 MW ( 1150 MW
32
2013-2020
, 200 MW
290 MW.
6.2.2. 2013
,
.. 2013.
,
. . 6.4
ENTSO-E 2013,
. 6.3 .
.
. 6.4: 2013

(GW)
16,78
16,78
16,78
15,71
15,71
15,71
10,77
12,27
3,02
3,80
10,68
9,69
11,23
9,64
3,11
1,95
2,77
2,07
1,75
1,93
1,97
1,70
1,87
1,91
RC ARM
1,27
1,88
1,14
0,25
0,90
0,16
RC - ARM 2013
(GW)
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
-0,5
-1,0
-1,5
-2,0
-2,5
6.4: RC ARM 2013

2013 (. 6.4) RC (Remaining
Capacity) RC ARM ,
,
2013 ( ). ,
,
,
, .
,
.
33
2013-2020
6.2.3. 2016
, 4
2017. . 6.5
4 2016,
. 6.3.
. 6.5: 2016
4
4
2017
2016
(GW)

18,11
18,11
18,11
17,83
17,83
17,83
9,52
11,56
9,38
9,25
11,30
9,11
1,85
3,03
1,97
1,58
2,77
1,70
1,84
2,02
2,06
1,83
2,01
2,04
RC ARM
0,01
1,01
-0,09
-0,25
0,76
-0,34

18,32
18,32
18,32
18,05
18,05
18,05
9,58
11,68
9,43
9,30
11,42
9,17
1,90
3,15
2,02
1,63
2,89
1,75
1,85
2,03
2,07
1,84
2,02
2,05
RC ARM
0,05
1,12
-0,05
-0,21
0,87
-0,30
2,5
(GW)
RC - ARM 2016
( )
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
-0,5
2017
2016

-1,0
-1,5
-2,0
-2,5
6.5: 4 RC-ARM
2016 ( )
34
2013-2020
RC - ARM 2016
( )
(GW)
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
-0,5
2017
2016
-1,0
-1,5
-2,0
-2,5
6.6: 4 RC-ARM
2016 ( )
, 2016
. , 4 2016
RC-ARM
( ),

.
6.2.4. 2020
. 6.6
2020.
. 6.6: 2020
(GW)

19,76
19,76
19,76
19,21
19,21
19,21
18,65
18,65
18,65
9,67
12,33
9,53
9,12
11,80
9,00
8,56
11,25
8,45
1,16
2,90
1,33
0,61
2,36
0,80
0,05
1,82
0,26
2,05
2,25
2,30
2,02
2,22
2,27
1,99
2,20
2,24
RC ARM
-0,89
0,64
-0,97
-1,41
0,14
-1,47
-1,95
-0,38
-1,99

21,43
21,43
21,43
20,88
20,88
20,88
20,32
20,32
20,32
9,93
12,94
9,79
9,38
12,41
9,26
8,82
11,86
8,71
1,42
3,51
1,59
0,87
2,97
1,06
0,31
2,43
0,52
2,13
2,34
2,38
2,10
2,31
2,36
2,08
2,28
2,33
RC ARM
-0,72
1,17
-0,79
-1,24
0,66
-1,30
-1,77
0,15
-1,81
35
2013-2020
. 6.6, 2020
RC
, RC-ARM
,
. :
, (
1) (
) 890 970
MW , 720 790 MW
. ,
, 640 MW
1170 MW .

1 2
( 2), . 6.6,
,
1410 1470 MW , 1240 1300 MW
. ,
,
140 MW 660 MW .

( 3) ( ,
)

1950 1990 MW 1770 1810 MW
. . 6.6,
RC-ARM

380 MW,

150 MW.
RC - ARM 2020
( )
(GW)
3,0
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
-0,5
-1,0
-1,5
-2,0
-2,5
-3,0
-3,5
6.7: RC ARM 2020

( )
36
2013-2020
RC - ARM 2020
( )
(GW)
3,0
2,5
2,0
1,5
1,0
0,5
0,0
-0,5
-1,0
-1,5
-2,0
-2,5
-3,0
-3,5
6.8: RC ARM 2020

( )
37
2013-2020
7.

,

, .
LOLE (Loss of Load Expectation),

.
LOLE 2013, 2016 2020.

.
7.1.
()

( ) :
( )
H ( )
,

.
,
, ,
.
,
. ,

.
, ,
, LOLE (Loss
of Load Expectation) LOLP (Loss of Load Probability).

5 ,
.
EFORD (Equivalent Demand Forced Outage Rate

)

5
38
2013-2020
7.1.1.

(..
, , .)

.
,

.

,
, .

(
) .

(.. )
,
(LOL):
, ,

, .
, LOL
2,4 10 , 6.
4,8 , , 1 5 .
(EirGrid)
LOLE 8 , ,
.
7.2.
7.2.1.

4.5,

4.5. . 7.1
.
LOLE
, EFORD (Equivalent Demand Forced
Outage Rate
) .
, EFORD

2012 2013.
EFORD
Least Cost Electric Utility Planning H.G. Stoll, 1988

39
2013-2020
. IV ( 12)
EFORD .
. 7.1:

2016
2020
(GW)
8,565
9,388
9,734
3,236
3,426
3,452
3,905
5,295
7,119
15,706
18,108
20,304
2016
( 4)
9,114
3,426
5,295
17,834
2020
1
2
3
9,188
8,638
8,078
3,452
3,452
3,452
7,119
7,119
7,119
19,758
19,208
18,648
2013
LOLE
4.400 GWh. 2020,

, 3500 GWh.
2020,
,
.
,
. ,
:
10%

. 4.8

3.500, 4.850 6.200 GWh 2013, 2016 2020
,
:
, 1700 MW (1200+500)
40
2013-2020
7.2.2.
LOLE
(3.2).
,
. ,
. 4.8
, LOLE.
2020
LOLE
(. 2.3 . 3.5). . 7.2 ,
, .
. 7.2:

/ (GWh)
(MW)
(MW)
2013*
50.021
9.735
9.042
2016
54.840
10.350
9.620
2020
62.040
11.700
10.841
2020
63.800
12.040
11.164
* 2013 2012
41
2013-2020
7.3.
7.3.1.

2013 2020
. 7.3.
. 7.3: LOLE 2013 2020

2013

0,02761
0,00030
2016
/
0,00805
0,00007
2020
0,04715
0,00056
. 7.3 LOLE
4,8 /
, .
7.3.2. 2013
,
.. 2013.
,
. . 7.4 LOLE 2013,

. 7.3 .
.
. 7.4: LOLE 2013
( / )
0,00001
0,02761
0,00000
0,00030
, ..
LOLE, ,
.
7.1 LOLE
2013,
. 7.2
7.1.
42
2013-2020
2013
L O L E ( / )
80
60
40
35,47
20
8,63
4,8 ./
(1 ./5)
0
14.000
14.500
15.000
15.500
16.000
(MW)
7.1: LOLE ( / ) / 2013
10
8 ./
8,63
2013
( EirGrid)
L O L E ( / )
4,8 /
(1 ./5 )
2,4 /
(1 ./10 )
2,08
0,27

0,028
0
14.000
14.500
15.000
15.500
(MW)
7.2: 7.1
43
16.000
2013-2020
7.3.3. 2016
, 4
2017. . 7.5
4 2016,
. 7.3.
. 7.5: LOLE 2016

(

2017)
2016
( / )
0,00805
0,01899
0,00007
0,00022
, 2016
LOLE,
.
7.3 LOLE
2016,
. 7.4
7.3.
44
2013-2020
2016
L O L E ( / )
80
69,9
60
40
.()
2016
20,26
20
.()
2017
5,90
4,8 ./
(1 ./5)
0
15.000
15.500
16.000
16.500
17.000
17.500
17.591
17.865
18.000
(MW)
7.3: LOLE ( / ) / 2016
10
2016
8 ./
( EirGrid)
L O L E ( / )
4,8 /
5,90
(1 ./5 )
2,4 /
(1 ./10 )
0,69
0,14

.
() .
2016
2017
()
0,03
0,019
17.500
17.591
0,008
0,003
0
15.000
15.500
16.000
16.500
17.000
(MW)
7.4: 7.3
45
17.865
18.000
2013-2020
7.3.4. 2020
. 7.6
2020,
. 7.3.
. 7.6: LOLE 2020
0,04715
0,00056
( / )
0,35656
2,64721
0,00535
0,04720
3
10,3769
0,21169
. 7.6 ,
2020 LOLE ,
.
:
, (
1) LOLE 656%,
.

1 2
( 2), LOLE
, 4,8 /.
LOLE
1
/.

( 3)
LOLE 4,8 /.
7.5 LOLE
2020,
. 7.6
7.5.
46
2013-2020
2020
L O L E ( / )
80
70,43
60
40
.()3
10,38
26,73
.() 2
.()1
.()
20
4,8 ./
(1 ./5)
0
18.000
18.500
18.740
19.000
19.300
19.500
19.850
20.000
20.396
20.500
(MW)
7.5: LOLE ( / ) / 2020
10
2020
8 ./
( EirGrid)
L O L E ( / )
6,79
6
4,8 /
(1 ./5 )
. ()
2,65
2,4 /
(1 ./10 )
1,81
. () 1
0,36
0,27
. ()
0,05
0,04
0
18.000
18.500
18.740
19.000
19.300
19.500
19.850
(MW)
7.6: 7.5
47
20.000
20.396
20.500
2013-2020
7.3.5. 2020

LOLE 2020
.
2 (
1 2 )
:
: ( 3500
GWh)
. 7.7
. 7.6, 7.7 7.8.
. 7.7: 2020
2

2,64721
0,04720
( / )
9,75509
7,31642
0,20419
0,14903
23,34550
0,56975
,
LOLE. . 7.7
LOLE ,
.
,
.
, . 7.7
LOLE .

25
20
15
10
5
4,8 /
(1/ 5 )
0
2
7.7: LOLE 2020 (

)
48
2013-2020

0,6
0,5
0,4
0,3
0,2
0,1
0
2
7.8: LOLE 2020 (

)
49
2013-2020
8.

2013 2020.

ENTSO-E,
LOLE (Loss of Load Expectation)
.
:
2013:
.
.. 2013
.
2016: 2016
.
, ,
. 4
2016, , ,
.

.
.
2020:
2020
2013, .
( , )
,

.

2020 270 MW (
1) . ,

.
270 MW ( 2),
,
.
, 270 MW (
3)
.

/,
,
, . 2013
/
, . ,

(, , , .).
50
2013-2020
,
,
2004 , ,
.
51
2013-2020
9. :
ENTSO-E
ENTSO-E,
,

(reference points).
9.1.
9.1.1. (Reference points)

:
: 19 (
18:00 CET 19:00 CET)
: 11 ( 10:00
CEST 11:00 CEST)
9.1.2. (Load)
ENTSO-E (Load)

,
.

,
.
9.1.3. (Load Management)

(load-shedding) .
.
9.1.4. (Net Generating Capacity)

(Net Generating Capacity, NGC)
,
.

.
9.1.5. (Unavailable Capacity)

(Unavailable Capacity)

.
52
2013-2020
,
, .
9.1.5.1.
(Non-Usable Capacity)
( ,
,
)
9.1.5.2.
(Maintenance and Overhauls)
9.1.5.3.
(Outages)

, .
53
2013-2020
9.1.5.4.
(System Services Reserve)
(security of
supply) ( ),
.
9.1.6. (Peak Load)

, (Peak
Load) , .
.
9.1.7. (Margin against

Seasonal Peak Load)
(Margin against Seasonal Peak Load)

.

.
9.1.8. (Spare Capacity)

(Spare Capacity) ( MW)

.
.

99%
/ . ,
ENTSO-E 5%
.
9.1.9. (Simultaneous
Interconnection Transmission Capacities)
(Simultaneous Interconnection
Transmission Capacities)

- ENTSO-E.

,
.
.
9.2.

,
. ,
54
2013-2020
( )
:
(Reliably Available Capacity, RAC):

.
(Remaining Capacity, RC):

.
(Adequacy Reference Margin, ARM):

,

(security of supply).
9.1.
9.1: ENTSO-E
9.2.1. (Reliably Available Capacity)

(RAC)

(NGC)
(UC):
RAC = NGC UC
(9.1.5)
.
(NonUsable Capacity), (Maintenance and
55
2013-2020
Overhauls),
(Outages) (System Services Reserves).
9.2.2. (Remaining Capacity)

(Remaining Capacity, RC)

.
(RAC) ,
:
RC = RAC (Load Load Management)
9.2.3. (Adequacy Reference Margin)

(Adequacy Reference Margin, ARM)
,

(security of supply).

.

(SC) (MaSPL):
ARM = SC + MaSPL
9.3.
9.3.1. ,
H
RC (9.2.2), .
,
. ,
, . ,
RC ,
.
9.3.2.
, ,
RC (9.2.2) ARM (9.2.3).
RC ARM
,
,
. , RC ARM,

. ,
.
56
2013-2020
10. :
ENTSO-E
10.1.
. 10.1:
GW
Lignite
Hard Coal
Gas
0,000
8,565
4,418
0,000
4,147
2013
0,000
8,565
4,418
0,000
4,147
0,000
8,565
4,418
0,000
4,147
0,000
9,388
4,186
0,000
5,202
2016
0,000
9,388
4,186
0,000
5,202
0,000
9,388
4,186
0,000
5,202
0,000
9,734
4,532
0,000
5,202
2020
0,000
9,734
4,532
0,000
5,202
0,000
9,734
4,532
0,000
5,202
Oil
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
3,905
3,905
3,905
5,295
5,295
5,295
7,119
7,119
7,119

1
2
2A
2B
2C
Nuclear Power
Fossil Fuels
2D
3
Renewable Energy Sources
3A
Wind Power
1,500
1,500
1,500
1,920
1,920
1,920
2,800
2,800
2,800
3B
Solar Power
2,270
2,270
2,270
3,120
3,120
3,120
4,000
4,000
4,000
3C
Biomass
0,045
0,045
0,045
0,136
0,136
0,136
0,200
0,200
0,200
3D
Other
0,090
0,090
0,090
0,119
0,119
0,119
0,119
0,119
0,119
3,236
3,236
3,236
3,426
3,426
3,426
3,452
3,452
3,452
4A
Run-of-River Hydro
0,218
0,218
0,218
0,226
0,226
0,226
0,250
0,250
0,250
4B
Storage and Pumped-Storage Hydro
3,018
3,018
3,018
3,200
3,200
3,200
3,202
3,202
3,202
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
15,706
15,706
15,706
18,108
18,108
18,108
20,304
20,304
20,304
Not Clearly Identifiable Energy Sources

(6=1+2+3+4+5)
Non-Usable Capacity
4,314
3,272
4,861
6,183
4,645
6,829
7,487
5,344
8,144
Maintenance and Overhauls
0,500
0,000
0,000
0,500
0,000
0,000
0,500
0,000
0,000
Outages
0,600
0,600
0,600
0,900
0,900
0,900
1,100
1,100
1,100
10
System Services Reserve

Unavailable Capacity (UC)
(11=7+8+9+10)
(12=6-11)
Load
0,600
0,600
0,600
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
6,014
4,472
6,061
8,583
6,545
8,729
10,087
7,444
10,244
9,692
11,234
9,645
9,525
11,563
9,379
10,217
12,861
10,061
7,743
8,964
8,073
7,974
9,231
8,314
9,014
10,436
9,398
0,000
0,500
0,500
0,300
0,700
0,900
0,500
1,000
1,200
1,949
2,770
2,072
1,851
3,032
1,965
1,703
3,425
1,863
0,785
5
6
11
12
13
14
15
16
Hydro power
Load Management
(15=12-13+14)
Spare Capacity (5% of NGC)
0,785
0,785
0,905
0,905
0,905
1,015
1,015
1,015
1,127
0,939
1,119
1,151
1,061
1,264
1,312
18
Margin Against Seasonal Peak Load

0,911
1,086
1,697
1,871
(18=16+17)
Simultaneous Interconnection Transmission Capacity
1,912
1,844
2,024
2,057
2,076
2,280
2,327
19
Import Capacity
1,800
1,800
1,800
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
20
Export Capacity
1,800
1,800
1,800
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
17
57
2013-2020
. 10.2: 2013 (
)
GW

1
2
2A
2B
2C
Nuclear Power
Fossil Fuels
Lignite
Hard Coal
Gas
2D
3
Oil
0,000
0,000
0,000
8,565
8,565
8,565
4,418
4,418
4,418
0,000
0,000
0,000
4,147
4,147
4,147
0,000
0,000
0,000
9,640
9,640
9,640
4,456
4,456
4,456
0,000
0,000
0,000
4,486
4,486
4,486
0,000
0,698
0,000
0,000
0,698
0,698
3,905
3,905
3,905
3,905
3,905
3,905
3A
Wind Power
1,500
1,500
1,500
1,500
1,500
1,500
3B
Solar Power
2,270
2,270
2,270
2,270
2,270
2,270
3C
Biomass
0,045
0,045
0,045
0,045
0,045
0,045
3D
Other
0,090
0,090
0,090
0,090
0,090
0,090
Hydro power
4A
4B
3,236
3,236
3,236
3,236
3,236
3,236
Run-of-River Hydro
0,218
0,218
0,218
0,218
0,218
0,218
3,018
3,018
3,018
3,018
3,018
3,018
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
15,706
15,706
15,706
16,781
16,781
16,781

(6=1+2+3+4+5)
Non-Usable Capacity
4,314
3,272
4,861
4,314
3,314
4,903
0,500
0,000
0,000
0,500
0,000
0,000
Outages
0,600
0,600
0,600
0,600
0,600
0,600
10

(11=7+8+9+10)
(12=6-11)
Load
0,600
0,600
0,600
0,600
0,600
0,600
6,014
4,472
6,061
6,014
4,514
6,103
9,692
11,234
9,645
10,767
12,267
10,678
7,743
8,964
8,073
7,743
8,964
8,073
0,000
0,500
0,500
0,000
0,500
0,500
1,949
2,770
2,072
3,024
3,803
3,105
0,785
0,785
0,785
0,839
0,839
0,839
1,127
0,911
1,086
1,127
18

0,911
1,086
1,697
1,871
(18=16+17)
1,912
1,751
1,925
1,966
19
Import Capacity
1,800
1,800
1,800
1,800
1,800
1,800
20
Export Capacity
1,800
1,800
1,800
1,800
1,800
1,800
5
6
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Load Management
(15=12-13+14)
58
2013-2020
. 10.3: 2016 (
)
GW
Lignite
Hard Coal
Gas
0,000
9,388
4,186
0,000
5,202
0,000
9,388
4,186
0,000
5,202
0,000
9,388
4,186
0,000
5,202
Oil
0,000
0,000
0,000

1
2
2A
2B
2C
Nuclear Power
Fossil Fuels
2D
3
4
2016
-
0,000
0,000
0,000
9,114
9,114
9,114
3,912
3,912
3,912
0,000
0,000
0,000
5,202
5,202
5,202
0,000
0,000
0,000
5,295
5,295
5,295
5,295
5,295
5,295
3A
Wind Power
1,920
1,920
1,920
1,920
1,920
1,920
3B
Solar Power
3,120
3,120
3,120
3,120
3,120
3,120
3C
Biomass
0,136
0,136
0,136
0,136
0,136
0,136
3D
Other
0,119
0,119
0,119
0,119
0,119
0,119
Hydro power
4A
4B
3,426
3,426
3,426
3,426
3,426
3,426
Run-of-River Hydro
0,226
0,226
0,226
0,226
0,226
0,226
3,200
3,200
3,200
3,200
3,200
3,200
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
18,108
18,108
18,108
17,834
17,834
17,834

(6=1+2+3+4+5)
Non-Usable Capacity
6,183
4,645
6,829
6,183
4,637
6,821
0,500
0,000
0,000
0,500
0,000
0,000
Outages
0,900
0,900
0,900
0,900
0,900
0,900
10

(11=7+8+9+10)
(12=6-11)
Load
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
8,583
6,545
8,729
8,583
6,537
8,721
9,525
11,563
9,379
9,251
11,297
9,113
7,974
9,231
8,314
7,974
9,231
8,314
0,300
0,700
0,900
0,300
0,700
0,900
1,851
3,032
1,965
1,577
2,766
1,700
0,905
0,905
0,905
0,892
0,892
0,892
1,151
0,939
1,119
1,151
18

0,939
1,119
1,844
2,024
(18=16+17)
2,057
1,830
2,010
2,043
19
Import Capacity
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
20
Export Capacity
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
5
6
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Load Management
(15=12-13+14)
59
2013-2020
. 10.4: 2020
( )
GW
0,000
0,000
9,188
9,188
3,986
3,986
0,000
0,000
5,202
5,202
Lignite
Hard Coal
Gas
0,000
9,188
3,986
0,000
5,202
Oil
0,000
7,119
7,119
7,119
3A
Wind Power
2,800
2,800
2,800
3B
Solar Power
4,000
4,000
4,000
3C
Biomass
0,200
0,200
3D
Other
0,119
0,119
3,452
3,452
3,452
Run-of-River Hydro
0,250
0,250
0,250

1
2
2A
2B
2C
Nuclear Power
Fossil Fuels
2D
3
Hydro power
4A
4B
0,000
0,000
0,000
8,638
3,436
0,000
5,202
0,000
0,000
0,000
8,638
8,638
3,436
3,436
0,000
0,000
5,202
5,202
0,000
8,078
2,876
0,000
5,202
0,000
0,000
8,078
8,078
2,876
2,876
0,000
0,000
5,202
5,202
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
7,119
7,119
7,119
7,119
7,119
7,119
2,800
2,800
2,800
2,800
2,800
2,800
4,000
4,000
4,000
4,000
4,000
4,000
0,200
0,200
0,200
0,200
0,200
0,200
0,200
0,119
0,119
0,119
0,119
0,119
0,119
0,119
3,452
3,452
3,452
3,452
3,452
3,452
0,250
0,250
0,250
0,250
0,250
0,250
3,202
3,202
3,202
3,202
3,202
3,202
3,202
3,202
3,202
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
19,758
19,758
19,758
19,208
19,208
19,208
18,648
18,648
18,648

(6=1+2+3+4+5)
Non-Usable Capacity
7,487
5,327
8,127
7,487
5,311
8,111
7,487
5,294
8,094
0,500
0,000
0,000
0,500
0,000
0,000
0,500
0,000
0,000
Outages
1,100
1,100
1,100
1,100
1,100
1,100
1,100
1,100
1,100
10

(11=7+8+9+10)
(12=6-11)
Load
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
10,087
7,427
10,227
10,087
7,411
10,211
10,087
7,394
10,194
9,671
12,331
9,531
9,121
11,798
8,998
8,561
11,254
8,454
9,014
10,436
9,398
9,014
10,436
9,398
9,014
10,436
9,398
0,500
1,000
1,200
0,500
1,000
1,200
0,500
1,000
1,200
1,157
2,896
1,333
0,607
2,362
0,799
0,047
1,819
0,256
0,988
5
6
11
12
13
14
15
16
Load Management
(15=12-13+14)
0,988
0,988
0,960
0,960
0,960
0,932
0,932
0,932
1,312
1,061
1,264
1,312
1,061
1,264
1,312
18

1,061
1,264
2,049
2,252
(18=16+17)
2,300
2,022
2,225
2,272
1,994
2,197
2,244
19
Import Capacity
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
20
Export Capacity
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
17
60
2013-2020
10.2.
. 10.5:
GW
Lignite
Hard Coal
Gas
0,000
8,565
4,418
0,000
4,147
2013
0,000
8,565
4,418
0,000
4,147
0,000
8,565
4,418
0,000
4,147
0,000
9,388
4,186
0,000
5,202
2016
0,000
9,388
4,186
0,000
5,202
0,000
9,388
4,186
0,000
5,202
0,000
9,734
4,532
0,000
5,202
2020
0,000
9,734
4,532
0,000
5,202
0,000
9,734
4,532
0,000
5,202
Oil
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
3,905
3,905
3,905
5,499
5,499
5,499
8,140
8,140
8,140
3A
Wind Power
1,500
1,500
1,500
1,960
1,960
1,960
3,000
3,000
3,000
3B
Solar Power
2,270
2,270
2,270
3,220
3,220
3,220
4,500
4,500
4,500
3C
Biomass
0,045
0,045
0,045
0,146
0,146
0,146
0,250
0,250
0,250
Other
0,090
0,090
0,090
0,173
0,173
0,173
0,390
0,390
0,390
3,236
3,236
3,236
3,436
3,436
3,436
4,099
4,099
4,099

1
2
2A
2B
2C
Nuclear Power
Fossil Fuels
2D
3
3D
4
Hydro power
4A
Run-of-River Hydro
0,218
0,218
0,218
0,236
0,236
0,236
0,300
0,300
0,300
4B
3,018
3,018
3,018
3,200
3,200
3,200
3,799
3,799
3,799
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
15,706
15,706
15,706
18,322
18,322
18,322
21,973
21,973
21,973

(6=1+2+3+4+5)
Non-Usable Capacity
4,314
3,272
4,861
6,346
4,737
6,991
8,896
6,402
9,552
0,500
0,000
0,000
0,500
0,000
0,000
0,500
0,000
0,000
Outages
0,600
0,600
0,600
0,900
0,900
0,900
1,100
1,100
1,100
10

(11=7+8+9+10)
(12=6-11)
Load
0,600
0,600
0,600
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
6,014
4,472
6,061
8,746
6,637
8,891
11,496
8,502
11,652
9,692
11,234
9,645
9,577
11,685
9,431
10,477
13,470
10,320
7,743
8,964
8,073
7,974
9,231
8,314
9,014
10,436
9,398
0,000
0,500
0,500
0,300
0,700
0,900
0,500
1,000
1,200
1,949
2,770
2,072
1,903
3,154
2,017
1,963
4,035
2,122
0,785
0,785
0,785
0,916
0,916
0,916
1,099
1,099
1,099
1,127
0,939
1,119
1,151
1,061
1,264
1,312
18

0,911
1,086
1,697
1,871
(18=16+17)
1,912
1,855
2,035
2,067
2,160
2,363
2,410
19
Import Capacity
1,800
1,800
1,800
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
20
Export Capacity
1,800
1,800
1,800
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
5
6
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Load Management
(15=12-13+14)
61
2013-2020
. 10.6: 2016 (
)
GW
Lignite
Hard Coal
Gas
0,000
9,388
4,186
0,000
5,202
0,000
9,388
4,186
0,000
5,202
0,000
9,388
4,186
0,000
5,202
Oil
0,000
0,000
0,000

1
2
2A
2B
2C
Nuclear Power
Fossil Fuels
2D
3
4
2016
-
0,000
0,000
0,000
9,114
9,114
9,114
3,912
3,912
3,912
0,000
0,000
0,000
5,202
5,202
5,202
0,000
0,000
0,000
5,499
5,499
5,499
5,499
5,499
5,499
3A
Wind Power
1,960
1,960
1,960
1,960
1,960
1,960
3B
Solar Power
3,220
3,220
3,220
3,220
3,220
3,220
3C
Biomass
0,146
0,146
0,146
0,146
0,146
0,146
3D
Other
0,173
0,173
0,173
0,173
0,173
0,173
Hydro power
4A
4B
3,436
3,436
3,436
3,436
3,436
3,436
Run-of-River Hydro
0,236
0,236
0,236
0,236
0,236
0,236
3,200
3,200
3,200
3,200
3,200
3,200
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
18,322
18,322
18,322
18,048
18,048
18,048

(6=1+2+3+4+5)
Non-Usable Capacity
6,346
4,737
6,991
6,346
4,729
6,983
0,500
0,000
0,000
0,500
0,000
0,000
Outages
0,900
0,900
0,900
0,900
0,900
0,900
10

(11=7+8+9+10)
(12=6-11)
Load
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
8,746
6,637
8,891
8,746
6,629
8,883
9,577
11,685
9,431
9,303
11,419
9,165
7,974
9,231
8,314
7,974
9,231
8,314
0,300
0,700
0,900
0,300
0,700
0,900
1,903
3,154
2,017
1,629
2,888
1,751
0,916
0,916
0,916
0,902
0,902
0,902
1,151
0,939
1,119
1,151
18

0,939
1,119
1,855
2,035
(18=16+17)
2,067
1,841
2,021
2,054
19
Import Capacity
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
20
Export Capacity
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
5
6
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
Load Management
(15=12-13+14)
62
2013-2020
. 10.7: 2020
( )
GW
0,000
0,000
9,188
9,188
3,986
3,986
0,000
0,000
5,202
5,202
Lignite
Hard Coal
Gas
0,000
9,188
3,986
0,000
5,202
Oil
0,000
8,140
8,140
8,140
3A
Wind Power
3,000
3,000
3,000
3B
Solar Power
4,500
4,500
4,500
3C
Biomass
0,250
0,250
3D
Other
0,390
0,390
4,099
4,099
4,099
Run-of-River Hydro
0,300
0,300
0,300

1
2
2A
2B
2C
Nuclear Power
Fossil Fuels
2D
3
Hydro power
4A
4B
0,000
0,000
0,000
8,638
3,436
0,000
5,202
0,000
0,000
0,000
8,638
8,638
3,436
3,436
0,000
0,000
5,202
5,202
0,000
8,078
2,876
0,000
5,202
0,000
0,000
8,078
8,078
2,876
2,876
0,000
0,000
5,202
5,202
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
8,140
8,140
8,140
8,140
8,140
8,140
3,000
3,000
3,000
3,000
3,000
3,000
4,500
4,500
4,500
4,500
4,500
4,500
0,250
0,250
0,250
0,250
0,250
0,250
0,250
0,390
0,390
0,390
0,390
0,390
0,390
0,390
4,099
4,099
4,099
4,099
4,099
4,099
0,300
0,300
0,300
0,300
0,300
0,300
3,799
3,799
3,799
3,799
3,799
3,799
3,799
3,799
3,799
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
0,000
21,427
21,427
21,427
20,877
20,877
20,877
20,317
20,317
20,317

(6=1+2+3+4+5)
Non-Usable Capacity
8,896
6,386
9,536
8,896
6,369
9,519
8,896
6,353
9,503
0,500
0,000
0,000
0,500
0,000
0,000
0,500
0,000
0,000
Outages
1,100
1,100
1,100
1,100
1,100
1,100
1,100
1,100
1,100
10

(11=7+8+9+10)
(12=6-11)
Load
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
11,496
8,486
11,636
11,496
8,469
11,619
11,496
8,453
11,603
9,931
12,941
9,791
9,381
12,407
9,257
8,821
11,864
8,714
9,014
10,436
9,398
9,014
10,436
9,398
9,014
10,436
9,398
0,500
1,000
1,200
0,500
1,000
1,200
0,500
1,000
1,200
1,417
3,505
1,593
0,867
2,972
1,059
0,307
2,429
0,516
1,071
5
6
11
12
13
14
15
16
Load Management
(15=12-13+14)
1,071
1,071
1,044
1,044
1,044
1,016
1,016
1,016
1,312
1,061
1,264
1,312
1,061
1,264
1,312
18

1,061
1,264
2,132
2,336
(18=16+17)
2,383
2,105
2,308
2,356
2,077
2,280
2,328
19
Import Capacity
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
20
Export Capacity
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
2,000
17
63
2013-2020
11. :
LOLP
LOL
,
.
(,
, ) LOL .
LOL LOLP
100 MW :
Year 2020
Period of Study
===============
Start (d/m) = 1 / 1
End (d/m) = 24 / 1
Number of Units = 3
(MAX = 100)
=====================
Use of Hydro = 85.0(%)
=====================
No of Name
Units
Power FOR
MAINTENANCE
(MW) (%)
PERIOD 1
PERIOD 2
================================ D1 M1 D2 M2 D3 M3 D4 M4
1. UNIT 1
20. 10.00
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
2. UNIT 2
40. 15.00
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
3. UNIT 3
40. 20.00
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
Period Results
==============
Installed Net Capacity
100. MW
Installed Net Hydro Capacity =
0. MW
Use Net Hydro Capacity
0. MW
Period Peak Load
=
=
LOLP at Period Peak Load
81.
=
MW DAY :18/01
0.388 (hrs)
64
2013-2020
Max. Period LOLP of Daily Peak Loads

==============================
DAY : 18/01
Max. Daily LOLP =
0.388 (hrs)
Peak Load
Operat. Capacity
= 100. MW
Maint. Capacity
81. MW
0. MW
-----------------------------------------------------------Daily Results from 1 / 1 to 24 / 1

Day
Capacity
Peak
Hourly
Operat.
Maint.
Load
LOLE
LOLP
(MW)
(MW)
(MW)
(hrs)
(%)
=======================================
01/01
02/01
03/01
04/01
05/01
06/01
07/01
08/01
09/01
10/01
11/01
12/01
13/01
14/01
15/01
16/01
17/01
18/01
19/01
20/01
21/01
22/01
23/01
24/01
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
10 0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
0.
50.
45.
31.
29.
29.
31.
55.
63.
70.
72.
72.
70.
70.
70.
67.
68.
79.
81.
79.
75.
65.
59.
57.
42.
0.05900
0.05900
0.03000
0.03000
0.03000
0.03000
0.05900
0.32000
0.32000
0.32000
0.32000
0.32000
0.32000
0.32000
0.32000
0.32000
0.32000
0.38800
0.32000
0.32000
0.32000
0.05900
0.05900
0.05900
5.90
5.90
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
5.90
32.00
32.00
32.00
32.00
32.00
32.00
32.00
32.00
32.00
32.00
38.80
32.00
32.00
32.00
5.90
5.90
5.90
===============
LOLE =
5.02200
20.92
65
2013-2020
12. IV: EFORD

. 12.1 EFORD

LOLE.
. 12.1: EFORD
.
.
.
. V
. V

V

V

V

V

. 8
. 9
...
... IV
... V
.

ELPEDISON_
PROTERGIA_CC
KORINTHOS_POWER

V
V
V
66

(MW)
274
274
283
283
342
273
273
289
275
275
280
280
116
116
274
30
8
255
256
144
144
123
287
151
188
173,4
550,2
377,66
476,3
389,38
422,142
410
432,7
433,46
49,254
49,254
49,254
326
417
811
620
EFORD
(%)
8,302
7,534
7,074
10,421
5,952
11,284
11,472
10,613
9,991
7,607
10,539
18,057
27,330
28,400
27,080
6,420
6,420
20,485
7,265
0,749
1,767
3,018
8,969
14,231
3,229
11,550
7,856
3,198
6,497
7,342
5,670
5,670
5,670
5,670
6,673
7,788
7,383
5,670
5,670
5,670
6,420

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2013 2020

IV: EFORD ........................................................................... 66

2.2: 2004 2012

17,4 GW. . 4.1

.., 620 MW,

5.2: 1997 2012

. 5.2: 2008 - 2013

(Reliably Available Capacity, RAC):

(Remaining Capacity, RC):

(Adequacy Reference Margin, ARM):

. 6.3: 2013 - 2020

Reliably Available Capacity (RAC)

Remaining Capacity (RC)

Adequacy Reference Margin (ARM)

Reliably Available Capacity (RAC)

Remaining Capacity (RC)

Adequacy Reference Margin (ARM)

6.2: RC ARM 2013 - 2020

6.3: RC ARM 2013 - 2020

Reliably Available Capacity (RAC)

Remaining Capacity (RC)

Adequacy Reference Margin (ARM)

6.4: RC ARM 2013

Reliably Available Capacity (RAC)

Remaining Capacity (RC)

Adequacy Reference Margin (ARM)

Reliably Available Capacity (RAC)

Remaining Capacity (RC)

Adequacy Reference Margin (ARM)

Reliably Available Capacity (RAC)

Remaining Capacity (RC)

Adequacy Reference Margin (ARM)

Reliably Available Capacity (RAC)

Remaining Capacity (RC)

Adequacy Reference Margin (ARM)

6.7: RC ARM 2020

6.8: RC ARM 2020

EFORD (Equivalent Demand Forced Outage Rate

Least Cost Electric Utility Planning H.G. Stoll, 1988

. 7.3: LOLE 2013 2020

. 7.4: LOLE 2013

7.1: LOLE ( / ) / 2013

. 7.5: LOLE 2016

7.3: LOLE ( / ) / 2016

7.5: LOLE ( / ) / 2020

7.7: LOLE 2020 (

7.8: LOLE 2020 (

9.1.1. (Reference points)

9.1.3. (Load Management)

9.1.4. (Net Generating Capacity)

9.1.5. (Unavailable Capacity)

(Maintenance and Overhauls)

(System Services Reserve)

9.1.6. (Peak Load)

9.1.7. (Margin against

9.1.8. (Spare Capacity)

(Reliably Available Capacity, RAC):

(Remaining Capacity, RC):

(Adequacy Reference Margin, ARM):

9.2.1. (Reliably Available Capacity)

9.2.2. (Remaining Capacity)

9.2.3. (Adequacy Reference Margin)

Renewable Energy Sources

Storage and Pumped-Storage Hydro