HEAT CAPACITY, TIME CONSTANT, AND SENSITIVITY OF EARTH'S

CLIMATE SYSTEM



Stephen E. Schwartz





June 2007






Accepted for publication in
Journal of Geophysical Research





Environmental Sciences Department/Atmospheric Sciences Division

Brookhaven National Laboratory
P.O. Box 5000
Upton, NY 11973-5000
www.bnl.gov








Notice: This manuscript has been authored by employees of Brookhaven Science Associates, LLC under Contract No. DE-AC02-
98CH10886 with the U.S. Department of Energy. The publisher by accepting the manuscript for publication acknowledges that the
United States Government retains a non-exclusive, paid-up, irrevocable, world-wide license to publish or reproduce the published form
of this manuscript, or allow others to do so, for United States Government purposes.
Minor typographical errors corrected, September 17, 2007
Q E
Q E
Q J =
J
Q

T E T =

e.g et al et
al et al., et al Q E
Q E
dH
dt
Q E =
dH dt Ansatz
dH dt
dH
dt
C
dT
dt
=
C C
et al
C
dT
dt
J T =
T
T T F Q E =
T F =

e
F t =
et al
T t F e
t
=

=

C

T



+
F



+

= T J = CT J
T

f


= = f f
f
d
d T
d
d T
= +

et al f

+
F t =
T t t e
t
= +



t >
T t t

T =

et al
et al
C a priori
C

= C
H T
C
dH dt
dT dt
=
H T
et al
et al
+ r t r t
t r
dH dt
C dH dt
dT dt C
dT dt
dH dt dT dt
C
C dH dT =
H T et al
H T C
et al
et al
et al
et al
et al
et al
et al
et al.

et al et
al

t
r t t =
t t r
t t r t =
et al
T
et al
T i
r t t
t t r
g
t t
t

t r

et al
et al
T
e et al
T
et al
et al
et al.
et al et al

F

T


T



+
et al et
al et al
T


F
T F T =


F T
et al
T
F
F
F
F F F
et al
<
et al
et al
et al
et al
et al
et al
F
et al
C

= C
T

C
C
et al
et al
et al
et al
et al
et al
et al et al a b
J. Climate 9
et al Science 299
Geophys. Res. Lett. 30
Science 300
Nature 435
Geophys. Res. Lett. 33
J. R. Stat. Soc. B8 Suppl.
J. Atmos. Sci.
37
Clim.
Dyn. 28
Geophys. Res. Lett. 32
Carbon Dioxide and Climate: A Scientific Assessment
Geophys. Res. Lett. 31
Geophys. Res. Lett. 32
Geophys. Res. Lett., 32
Carbon Dioxide
Review 1982
J. Climate 11
Ann. Phys. 17
Science
310
et al Geophys. Res.
Lett. 28
Geophys. Res. Lett. 32
Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. 102
Nature 350
a
Nature, 439,
b
Geophys. Res. Lett., 33
J. Climate 15
Sci. Am. 290
et al Science 308
Geophys. Res. Lett. 23
Science 229
Global Warming: The Hard Science
Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis.
Climate Change 2007: The Physical Science
Basis
Astrophys. J., Part 1 364
J. Climate 16
Bull. Amer. Meteorol.
Soc. 78
J. Appl. Meteorol. 12
J. Atmos. Sci. 32
Nature 276
Geophys. Res.
Lett. 32
J. Geophys. Res.
103
Geophys. Res.
Lett., 33
Science 307
Rev. Geophys.
Space Phys., 19
Clim. Dyn. 8
Abrupt Climate Change: Inevitable Surprises
Science
296
J. Geophys. Res. 92
Climatic Change 44
Geophys. Res. Lett. 33
,
J. Geophys. Res. 106
Volcano Weather: The story of 1816, the year without a summer.
et al.
Science 278
Theor. Appl. Climatol. 61
Mon.
Wea. Rev. 113
Statistical Analysis in Climate Research
. Climate Dynamics (2004)23:1 15
DOI 10.1007/s00382-004-0404-2 23
Geophys. Res. Lett. 28
Science 307
J. Geophys. Res. 110
Science 282
J. Geophys. Res., 109
dH dt dT dt
dT dt
dH dt
dT dt dH dt
et al
H T
H T T H et al
C
et al
C

C
C

T

T et al.
F
T
F
F
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
S
e
n
s
i
t
i
v
i
t
y

t
o

2

C
O
2

T
2

,

K
2010 2005 2000 1995 1990 1985 1980 1975
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
S
e
n
s
i
t
i
v
i
t
y
,

K

/

(
W

m
-
2
)
Charney
NRC
IPCC
1 sigma
> 66%
"Likely"
et al
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
O
c
e
a
n

H
e
a
t

C
o
n
t
e
n
t

A
n
o
m
a
l
y

H
,

W

y
r

m
-
2
2000 1990 1980 1970 1960
1.5
1.0
0.5
0.0
-0.5
T
e
m
p
e
r
a
t
u
r
e

a
n
o
m
a
l
y

T
,

K
Heat Content

L300
L700
L3000
Temperature

GISS
CRU
et al
et al
d
H
/
d
t
,

W

m
-
2
dT
s
/dt, K yr
-1
0.05
0.10
0.20
0.005 0.010 0.020
C, W yr m
-2
K
-1
L300
L3000
L700
5
10
20
CRU GISS
dH dt
dT dt
dH dt dT dt dH dt et
al
dT dt
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
L
7
0
0
,

W

y
r

m
-
2
0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4
10.9 3.1
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
L
7
0
0
,

W

y
r

m
-
2
0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4
9.4 2.3
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
L
3
0
0
,

W

y
r

m
-
2
0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4
7.0 1.6
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
L
3
0
0
,

W

y
r

m
-
2
0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4
a
0.4
0.0
-0.4
T
e
m
p
.

A
n
o
m
a
l
y
,

K
2000 1980 1960 1940 1920 1900 1880
b
2
1
0
-1
-2
N
o
r
m
.

R
e
s
i
d
u
a
l
2000 1980 1960 1940 1920 1900 1880
10
8
6
4
2
0
T
i
m
e

C
o
n
s
t
.

,

y
r
20 15 10 5 0
Lag time t, yr
GISS 1880-2004
10
8
6
4
2
0
T
i
m
e

C
o
n
s
t
.

,

y
r
20 15 10 5 0
Lag time t, yr
CRU 1880-2004
10
8
6
4
2
0
T
i
m
e

C
o
n
s
t
.

,

y
r
20 15 10 5 0
Lag time t, yr
GISS NH 1880-2005
10
8
6
4
2
0
T
i
m
e

C
o
n
s
t
.

,

y
r
20 15 10 5 0
Lag time t, yr
CRU NH 1880-2005
10
8
6
4
2
0
T
i
m
e

C
o
n
s
t
.

,

y
r
20 15 10 5 0
Lag time t, yr
GISS SH 1880-2005
10
8
6
4
2
0
T
i
m
e

C
o
n
s
t
.

,

y
r
20 15 10 5 0
Lag time t, yr
CRU SH 1880-2005
10
8
6
4
2
0
T
i
m
e

C
o
n
s
t
.

,

y
r
20 15 10 5 0
Lag time t, yr
GISS 1880-1942
10
8
6
4
2
0
T
i
m
e

C
o
n
s
t
.

,

y
r
20 15 10 5 0
Lag time t, yr
CRU 1880-1942
10
8
6
4
2
0
T
i
m
e

C
o
n
s
t
.

,

y
r
20 15 10 5 0
Lag time t, yr
GISS 1943-2004
10
8
6
4
2
0
T
i
m
e

C
o
n
s
t
.

,

y
r
20 15 10 5 0
Lag time t, yr
CRU 1943-2004
t t
g
72
48
24
0
T
i
m
e

C
o
n
s
t
.

,

m
o
n
t
h
s
180 120 60 0
Lag time t, months
GISS 1880-2004
t
t
g