..

. ; .
, , , .

,
R = Q C,

(1)

R , Q , C
[1, 2].
Q C
.
R, Rii, Qi Ci:
Rii = Qi Ci.
,
( ) , .
, .
C Q . ,

(.) [4].
, , , .



.
(Q, C) fQC(q, c). R Q C
FR (r) = (Q, C).
(2)
R.
R
76

R (r) = P(R < r) = P [(Q, C) < r].

(3)
(3), (Q, C)
W, (Q, C)
r, , ,
FR (r) = P [(Q, C)

W]=

QC ( q, c ) dqdc

(4)

W , R < r.
FR (r) r, R:
fR (r) = FR (r ) .
= (q, c), fR (r)
.
, R Q C, , = qc , . W = (q, c) (.).
,
(.). W , R < r,
., R = r :
.
R
FR (r) = P (R < r) = P (R < q c) =

r/q

QC ( q, c ) dqdc

QC ( q, c ) dqdc

, (5)

0 0

fR (r) (5)
r

fR (r) =

c =

r
f (q, )dq .
q

(6)

r
. (6) ,
q

, r/q (5).

77

 W (.)

0 q 1;
0 c r / q.

W:

FR (r) =

1 r/q

f QC (q, c)dcdq =

QC

(q, c)dcdq .

(7)

0 0

(W )

fR:
1

fR (r) =

q f

QC ( q,

r
) dq .
q

(8)

0 1.
, fQ(q)
fC (c), FR (r) fR (r).
(8) :
1

q f

fR (r) =

r
) dq .
q

Q (q) fC (

(9)

Q .
mq >3q
C .
mc >3c
Q-
C-
Q
C

(r ) =

1
2 q c

f R (r ) =

1
2
2
2
2
q exp (q m q ) / 2 q (r / q mc ) / 2 c

2
2
q c

1
q exp
0

{ q
1

f R ( r ) = q q c c r c 1 q

/ 2

q c 1

2
q

exp{ q q

Q .
C .
Q
C

Q . .
C . .

f R (r ) =

fR

1
2r q c

nq + 1


2

(r ) =
n
n q n c q
2

/ 2 q 2

2
c

dq

dq .

r
c ( ) c }dq .
q

(ln q mq ) 2 (ln r / q mc ) 2
1
exp

dq.
q
2 q2
2 c2

nc + 1

nc

1
q

1 + q

n
q

nq +1
2

r2 / q
1 +

nc

2
( r / q m c ) 2
1
( q m q )

exp
dq
2
2 q
2 c2
0 q

a1 q m q a 2 c m c
a2q mq

q
q
c

n c +1
2

dq .

fR (r ) =
2

q c

a1c m c

, Q C, ,
78

Q C . , :
c = (q).
(10)


FR (q,c) =

C / Q ( q, c ) f Q ( q ) dcdq.

(11)

W1

c = (q) = -k1q + k0.
fR :

1 1 k0 r / q
f Q (q)dq ,
fQ
k1 0 q k1

f R (r ) = FR (r ) =

k1 > 0.

(12)

c = (q) = k0 e-k1q.
r
fR :

f R (r ) =

1
ln k 0 ln r / q
1
f Q (q )dq ,

f
Q
rk1 0
k1

f R (r ) =

f R (r ) =

2 Q2 k1
1

2
Q k1 0

1
1

exp
2
q
2 Q

2
k r / q

mQ + q mQ
k1

k1
1
exp
(k0 r / q)
2 Q2

2
k r / q

ln 0
mQ + ln q mQ

k1

) dq , k > 0.

) dq , k
2

> 0.

k r / q Q
1

Q 1
Q
0
dq , k1 > 0.
(
(
/
))
exp
q
k
r
q

Q q +
0

k1 Q 0 q
k1

k r / q
Q 2 1 1
dq , k1 > 0.
f R (r ) =
exp Q q + 0
k1 0 q

k1

( Q Q ) 2

2
1
k0 r / q , k1 > 0.

+
k
r
q
q
(
/
)
exp

0
2
dq

k1
k12 Q4 0

2 Q
nQ + 1
nQ +1
nQ +1
1

2
2
2
2
2

q
2 1 1 + ( k0 r / q )
f R (r ) =
dq , k1 > 0.

1 +
2
n
q
n

n
k
Q

Q
Q 1

k1 nQ 2 0
2

f R (r ) =

(13)

fR (r)

f R (r ) =

k0, k1 > 0.

79


Q :
, , , .

.
.

1. Rasmussen, Norman et al. Reactory Safety Study. WASH-1400. Washington, DC:

US NRC, 1975.
2. .., .., .. : . . .: , 2007. 544 .
3. .., .. : . .: , 2008. 352 .
4. .. . .: . . 2005. 326 .
5. .., .. .
.: -, 2006. 704 .
6. .. : . . .: . ., 1998. 576 .
Ye.N. Shevtchenko
MATHEMATICAL MODELS OF A TECHNOGENIC RISK
REGARDING DEVELOPMENT FACILITIES OF OIL AND GAS FIELDS
Subject to analysis being a possibility to assess risk using a unit of two dimensional
probability distributions. The paper presents two dimensional density functions of risk distribution for a case of an independent random variable of probability and damage, as well as
for a case of a linear and exponential dependence between probability and damage.
Oil and gas production, model, technogenic risk, development.

80