6

6.1

,


() ()

-
()

() ()

-
(), () ()

(), (), (), (
), (), ( ),
(/-), (), (),
(), (), (), ()
().

6.2

6
6.1 .................................................................................................................................. 6.5
6.2 ........................................................................................ 6.6
6.2.1

, ......................... 6.6

6.2.2

,
.................................................................................................................................. 6.7

6.2.3

, ,
.................................................................................................. 6.8

6.2.4

, ................. 6.8

6.2.5
............................................................................................................... 6.10
6.3 .............................................................. 6.14
6.3.1

..................................................................... 6.15

6.3.2

1
................................................................................................................. 6.15

6.3.3
1 ................................................................................ 6.20
6.4 2-
-............................................... 6.20
6.4.1

2 - ..................................................................... 6.23

6.4.2
2 - ................................................... 6.24
6.5
- .......................................................................................................... 6.26
6.5.1

................ 6.26

6.5.2

C ,
?................................... 6.28

6.5.3

................................. 6.28

6.5.4

................................ 6.29

6.5.5

?............................................................................................... 6.29

6.5.6

.................................................. 6.29

6.5.7

.................................................... 6.29

6.5.8

................................................................................ 6.29

6.5.9
.................................................... 6.30
6.6 .............................................................................................................................................. 6.30
6A.1 6.1 ( 1)........................................ 6.31
6A.2 1 - .................... 6.34
..................................................................................................................................... 6.36

6.3

6.1

-........................................................................... 6.22

6.2

-................................................................................................................ 6.23

6.3

-
,
.............. 6.24

6.4

6.1

1 ............................................. 6.18

6.2

2 - .......................................................... 6.25

6.3

1 - .............................. 6.34

6

6.1

, ,
. ,
.

1.
, 2-5,
, 1
- ( 7 -
) / ( 8 ).
.
,
,

, 7 . ,
.
,
, 1996 . (
) , , ,

(N2O) .
.
,
.
,
, . ,
, , ,
,
, ,
.
, ,
. 1.
(..
) ,
.
.
, ,
,
, .
, ,
.
,
, .
, ,
, .
,
.
.

6.5

. , ,
, 2-5,
.
,
, ,
,
, .

, 3 -
1 .

. , , ,
.
. 95 % , , 95 %
.
, ,
(). ,
, , ,
. ,

.

6.2

(, ,
, ) ,
, ( )

.
. ,
,
. ,
6.2.5 . 6.2.1-6.2.4
, .
.
, ,
( , ), ,
. ,
, ,
.

6.2.1

, ,
.
, , , 95 %, ,
. ,

, 8 /. , ,
.
( )
. ,
,
, :

6.6

6.1
= 1 2

6.2
= (12 + 22)1/2,
1 2 t1 t2, 1 2
t1 t2. 95 %
( )
.1

6.2.2

.
, , , ,

.
.
( ) . :

.
,
,
.

.
,
, , .

(, )
.

, , . ,
,
, .
.

,
,
(
, ) . ,
, .
,
, ,

(, , ),
( , 1999 ., p. 116-117).
,
.
, , ,
,
( , 1999 ., p. 158-159). ,
, ,
. ,
1 30,
t .

6.7

0,3, (, 1989 .).

, .
1
, -
6.2.5 .

6.2.3

,
,

,
, ,
,
2-5.
, . ,
, ,
, .

,
. ,
, , , ,
.
, ,
, :

, .
, ,
, ,
. ,
, ,
.

/.

.

,
. ,
. , ,
.

, ,
.

, , , ,
. , ,
, .

6.2.4

,
. . ,

.
. , ,
, .
. ,

6.8

.
,
.
, ,
, :

. ,
, ,
, " " "
". ,
, .

. ,
/ .
.

. ,
,
. ,
-
.

.
, ,
,
(CH4) (N2O) .
, .

.
.
.

. ,
, , .

.

, .

, ,
, ,
, (.. ,

, , ,
7 ).
, ,
. , ,
,
.

6.9

6.2.5

,
, ,
.
, , , ,
, .
- , -
. ,
. ,
,
.

, :

?
?

? ?

,
? , ,
.

?
,
.

,
, ,
, ,
. , .
, ,
.2
.

. ,
,
- ( )
.
, -
, :

, .

-
.

-

.

.
,
,
2 , (), ,
. ,
(1999 .), (1996 .) (1999 .).

6.10

- . ,
" ". (1990 .)
. ,
.
:

- .

. , ,
.

, ,
, ,
.

, , , ,
, .

.
.
, ,
, .
. ,
.

Stanford/SRI. , 6.1
.

: .
, ,
.
.

: , , ,
, , , (
),
.
(, ,
.)

: ,
, ,
.

: .
, ,
.

:
, .
, ? ?

, ,
.
:

: , ( )
, , . ,
, 100?

6.11

: , ,
( ). , ,
2,5- ( 1 40 ) ,
( ) .

: . ,
,
, .
.
, ,
( 25 )
. ,
,
.

: .
,
.
6.1

, , , ()

.

, .

. , , ,
,
,
,
,
.
, , ,

.
,
( 2,5 ) .
, ,
,
. ,
, , 25 75 .
.
,
, .
,
.
, ,
, .

, , , .
:

, ,

95 % .

,
,
, , 2,5 %
. .

6.12

:
(1975 .), (1990 .), (1987 .), (1989 .)
NCRP (1996 .).

.

, , ,
, . :

() ;

, ;

,
;

- ;

, , .

6.13

6.3

.
, I ,
I ( ),

:

: ,
,
, ,
(
).

,
:
6.3
U total =

(U 1 x 1 ) 2 + (U 2 x 2 ) 2 + ... + (U n x n ) 2
x 1 + x 2 + ... + x n

:
Utotal

( 95 %
, (.. ) );

xi Ui
.

B: ,
, , ,
(
).

, :
6.4
U total = U12 + U 22 + ... + U 2n

Utotal
( 95 %
, );

Ui

, .

. ,
. ,
,
. ,
30 %
,
.
( -),
, ,
. ,
:

6.14

1: ,
,

.

2: ,
-, -
.

- 1
,
, .
1,
, "
". 6.3.1 .

6.3.1

1, 2 ,
, ,

.
2 ( ., 1998 .) , 95 %
7 % 20 %
. 1 (. 6A.2 -
1) 20 %.
, 1, , ,
. ,
2, ,
, .
2 , 1 .
, 2, .,
, 95 % 5 %
5 % . 3 1
2 %. 1 ,
1990-1997 ., 2 1990-2010 .,
, .
, ,
.

. 1, ,
- , ,
2.
,
1, , , ,
, 2.

6.3.2

1
. -,

. -,
.
1 , 6.1 1 -
- .
,
3 6 5%.

6.15

,
, 2-5.
CO2 (.. 100- ).
:

: ,
1 %
, .

:
, , 1 %
.

,
, B
, . ,
, ,
, ,
B. 6.2.1-6.2.4 ,
,
B. ,
,
.
, .
,
, ,
( ) , .
6.1 1 - -
Q :

A B .

C D 4
, , CO2.

E F
, ,
, 95 % ,
. 95 %
, , E F,
, "
x %",
. , ,

.

G ,
E F, ( ).
G
F.

H G
. ,
.
H , G, ,
D, D.
H
, ,
.
H .

I ,
,

4 - , .

6.16

.
(.. ).
- , . 6A.1
I.

J ,

.
(.. , ).
- , . J
6A.1.

K I F ,
, ,
.
, ,
I J, 2.
K 6A.1.

L J E ,
, ,
.
, ,
J I, 2 .
L 6A.1.

M ,
. 1
K L, B. , M
K L.
, ,
, .
M
.
M 6A.1.

N - Q
.

N D, M R ,
: (D)
, , (M),
(R).

O D, M R ,
: , ,
.

P ,
.

Q
( )
.

, ,
6A.2 1 - .

6.17

 6.1
1
A

%
t

,
1.A.1.

CO2

1.A.1.

CO2

..

CO2

CO2

E2 + F2

GD
D
%

D
C
%

IF
C

JE 2

K2 + L2

D
%

6.18

 6.1 ()
1
A
()

B
()

1.A.1.

CO2

,
1.A.1.

CO2

..

- (
) :

, F 0 E;

, E 0 F.

6.19

B
0.01 D x + D i (0.01 C x + C i )
Di Ci
100
100
(0.01 C x + C i )
Ci

, ,
B, 2:
K x = J x Fx 2

, ,
A, 2 :

Lx = Ix Ex
E

:
D
M
R

6.3.3

6.1 1 - -
, ( )
.
, 1 , ,
,
,
.
.
,
, ( )
, , ,
, .

.
, ,
(,
, ).
1 , 6A.2,
. ,
, 7, .

6.4

2-


-

2 , 1, . 2
-
.
-

. ,
,

6.20

 . - ,
.
-
, (
, ) (,
1 CH4 ),
" ".
. (1998 .) -,

, .
- . (1994 .). -
(1996 .).
, -
. - .
, , ,
.
- , 6.1.
.
. 6.5.3
.

1 .
. ,

. 6.2.16.2.5.

2 . ,

-.

3 . .
,
.

4 . , 3,
. , 6.1,
,
, .
. ,

CO2.
100 %, -
. ,
, -
.

5 . 4
, , 3.
, .
. , ,
.
, .
95 % 1 %, .
.
( 6.2
-).
, ,
.

6.21

6.1

1 2 ,

,
.

6.22

 6.2

30
,

20

15

10

0
1040

6.4.1

1060

1080

1100

1120

1140

1160

2 -

- 2 ,
. ,
.
,
( t). -
. :

1 .
.
- , , ,
, , .

(.. 100 %).

3. .
,
.
,
(, ,

). ,
, ,
, 3
.
,
. , ,
.

2 .
, , ,
,
,
t. , ,
100 % ( , ),

6.23

, , ,
.
.

.

3 .
, ,
(). 6.3 .

4 . , ,
3, .

5 . 4 ,
. , 3, ,
. , .
,
, t ()
, .

6.3

-

,

1

t

t
1

1 t.

1


.

1

t.

t =

=
t


i, 100 %

t
(.,

).

6.4.2

=
t


, 100 %
t
(.,

).

2 -

, ( ) ,
CO2. 6.2
I J. ,
2, 1, 6.1,
6.3.1 .

6.24

 6.2
2 -
A

,
1.A.1

CO2

,
1.A.2

CO2

..

%
t
%
(2,5
)

t %

,

t

%
t

( CO2)

(
CO2

%
(2,5
)

(%)

(%)

%
(97,5
)

%
(97,5
)

6.25

6.5

- ,
, .
, .
,
. ,
,
,
, (,
, ).
,
.

6.5.1

- ,
,
. ,
, . ,
, (1999 .).
: (1967 .), (1975 .).
Ao (1986 .), (1990 .) (1996 ., 1997 ., 1999 .).

. (1998 .) . (1999 .).

, ,
. ,
, :

,
, ?

,
( )?

,
, ,
. ,
.
1 , 2.5
.

.

.
.
(,
).
.

. ,
, .
, ,
.

6.26

,
. ,
. (1999 .) ,
(,
, , ). , ,
, ,
-.
,
, , "
"5 " "6.
,
() ,
(. , 1999 .). ,

, , ,
(, , 1967 .).
,
. ,
.
, (1996 .),
, ,
,
-
. (),
(.
, 1993.; , 1996 .; , 1999 .).
() .
, -,
, .
.
, , ,
. ,
.
( , 500-1000 ),
.
, ,
. ,
,
.
. 500 1000
,
.
, ,
(.. 365

), 500-1000
.
, .
, ,
, .. , ,
, .

5 ,
( ).
6
.
. (, III
, 1996 .; p. 395-397).

6.27

6.5.2

C ,

?

, ,
,
.
, -
, . ,

,
. , , ,
.


.
(1990 .), (1999 .) .

,
.
. ,
, ,
"".

.

.
,
,
.
, ,
. -
. , , ,
, , , .
- ,

. , -
, ,
.

6.5.3

,
-. Crystal Ball, @Risk,
Analytica Mathematica.
.
,
- ().
""
. ,
, . ,
,
, .
,

, .
-
,

6.28

,
. (1999 .)
- (. 207-213).

6.5.4

, ,
.
,
. ,
,
,
. ,
, .


. ,
, ,

, .

6.5.5

, , ,
. ,
,
, .

, ,
.

6.5.6

,
. : (i)
; (ii)
; (iii) , (
); (iv)
, ; (v)
(, ,
- ).
(1999 .), (1990 .) (1996 .).
.

6.5.7

(., , , 1982 .).
,
-.
, , ,

, . ,
, ,
(., , , 1990 . ,
1999 .).

6.5.8

6.29

(), ()
. ,
, . ,
, 95 %
. ,
.
, , .

6.5.9

. , ,
. , ,

, .

6.6

, , , ,

, ,
.
,

.

6.30

6A.1
6.1 ( 1)

Cx = , C x,
n

= (),

C i = () i=1 i=n.

A-F

.
G

,
:
G x = E x 2 + Fx 2 .

t:
Hx =

G x Dx
.
Di

H ( )
:
2

2
x x D x (H x )

=
=
Dx

2
x

, I, ,
t
, t.
, .. ,
t. .

6.31

Ix = , x 1 %

0.01 D x + D i (0.01 C x + C i )
Di Ci
100 .
100
(0.01 C x + C i )
Ci

, J, ,
t x
t.
, .. , t.
.
Jx = , x 1 % t

0.01 D x + Di Ci
D C
100 i i 100
Ci
Ci

Dx
.
Ci

,
,
. ,
, :

K x = A
= I x Fx .
, ,
B, 2 ,
L:

K x = B 2
= J x Fx 2 .

t.
t. ,
,
t:

( ( , ) )2 + ( ( , t) )2

( ( , t) )2 2

= E x 2.

6.32

, , L
:
Lx = B

= Jx Ex

2 .

, ,
A, 2 :
Lx = Ix Ex .

M ,
.
Mx = K x2 + Lx2 .

Mi M ,
:

x x (D x C x ) (M x )2

2
2
2
M =
= M1 + M 2 + ... + M n .
(D

C
)
x x
x

6.33

 6A.2
1 -

6.3
1
A

1A
1A
1A
1A
1B
1B
2A1
2A2
2A3
2A4
2B
2C1
5D
6C

1A
1B1
1B2
2C
4A
4B
4F
6A
6B
6C

1A2&
1A4&

6.34

()

, ,

C


1990

CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2
CO2

D

t
1997

- CO2 CO2
238 218
142 266
208 684
196 161
111 052
181 691
138
741
2 573
1 566

-
E

H
%

I
J
- A
B

K
,

M
,

1.2
1
2
7
1.2

6
2
1
20
6

6.1
2.2
2.2
21.2
6.1

1.2
0.6
0.6
0.0
0.0

-0.0966
0.0076
0.1039
0.0008
-0.0010

0.1840
0.2538
0.2351
0.0010
0.0020

-0.58
0.02
0.10
0.02
-0.01

0.31
0.36
0.66
0.01
0.00

0.66
0.36
0.67
0.02
0.01

0.1
0.0
0.0
0.0

-0.0024
0.0001
0.0008
0.0004

0.0081
0.0080
0.0022
0.0020

-0.03
0.00
0.00
0.00

0.00
0.01
0.00
0.00

0.03
0.01
0.01
0.00

8 908
6 693
1 192
1 369

6 265
6 157
1 703
1 551

1
1
1

14
2
5
5

14.0
2.2
5.1
5.1

CO2

116

120

15

15.1

0.0

0.0000

0.0002

0.00

0.00

0.00

CO2
CO2
CO2

1 358
3 210
31 965

814
1 495
27 075

1.2
5

5
6
54

5.0
6.1
54.2

0.0
0.0
2.1

-0.0005
-0.0019
-0.0027

0.0011
0.0019
0.0350

0.00
-0.01
-0.14

0.00
0.00
0.25

0.00
0.01
0.29

20

21.2

0.0

-0.0007

0.0000

-0.01

0.00

0.01

CO2

660

29

CO2

616 137

567 634

CH4
CH4
CH4

2 507
17 188
215

1 975
6 687
173

1.2
1
6

50
13
50

50.0
13.0
50.4

0.1
0.1
0.0

-0.0004
-0.0116
0.0000

0.0026
0.0087
0.0002

-0.02
-0.15
0.00

0.00
0.01
0.00

0.02
0.15
0.00

CH4
CH4
CH4
CH4
CH4

8 103
2 402
16
19 177
2 338

7 301
1 957
13
18 752
2 325

2
10
1.2
1
1

15
26
50
20
30

15.1
27.9
50.0
20.0
30.0

0.2
0.1
0.0
0.5
0.1

-0.0001
-0.0003
0.0000
0.0016
0.0003

0.0094
0.0025
0.0000
0.0243
0.0030

0.00
-0.01
0.00
0.03
0.01

0.03
0.04
0.00
0.03
0.00

0.03
0.04
0.00
0.05
0.01

CH4
CH4
CH4
CH4
CH4

266
23 457
701
1
76 371

0
17 346
726
1
57 257

25
15
15
7

50
46
48
50

55.9
48.4
50.3
50.5

0.0
1.2
0.1
0.0

-0.0003
-0.0052
0.0001
0.0000

0.0000
0.0224
0.0009
0.0000

-0.02
-0.24
0.01
0.00

0.00
0.48
0.02
0.00

0.02
0.53
0.02
0.00

N2O

3 865

3 562

1.2

195

195.0

1.0

0.0001

0.0046

0.01

0.01

0.01

 6.3
1
A

C


1990

- CO2 CO2

1A5
1A3
1B2
2B

4D
4F
6B
6C

, ,

2
3
4

2B
4B

D

t
1997

-
E

H
%

I
J
- A
B

K
,

M
,

N2O
N2O
N2O

1 300
3
25 136

3 645
2
17 766

1.4
10
0.5

170
110
15

170.0
110.5
15.0

0.9
0.0
0.4

0.0032
0.0000
-0.0067

0.0047
0.0000
0.0230

0.54
0.00
-0.10

0.01
0.00
0.02

0.54
0.00
0.10

N2O
N2O

4 383
1 583

3 723
1 559

10
1

230
509a

230.2
509.0

1.2
1.1

-0.0004
0.0002

0.0048
0.0020

-0.08
0.08

0.07
0.00

0.11
0.08

N2O
N2O
N2O
N2O
N2O

29 472
78
153
115
66 089

29 098
0
157
11
59 525

1
10
1
7

509
230
100
230

509.0
230.2
100.0
230.1

21.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

0.0029
-0.0001
0.0000
-0.0001

0.0376
0.0000
0.0002
0.0000

1.47
-0.02
0.00
-0.03

0.05
0.00
0.00
0.00

1.47
0.02
0.00
0.03

HFC
11 374
18 447
PFC
2 281
661
SF6
724
1 170
SF6

2
5
10

25
19
8

25.1
19.6
12.8

0.7
0.0
0.0

0.0104
-0.0018
0.0007

0.0239
0.0009
0.0015

0.26
-0.03
0.01

0.07
0.01
0.02

0.27
0.04
0.02

772 976

704 693
(%)

21.3

(%)

2.0

, -, .. (97,5 /)/ *100.

6.35

6.7

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6.36