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. .

. .

S.-D. Poisson
Recherches sur la probabilit des jugements
en matire criminelle et en matire civile.
Paris, 1837
. .



. .

Berlin, 2013
Oscar Sheynin, 2013

www.sheynin.de
ISBN 978-3-942944-29-8

: (Viatcheslav Demidov)

NG Verlag (Viatcheslav Demidov Inhaber)


Berlin
Tel.: 030/4442460
Fax: 030/44739165
E-mail: SlavaDemidov@t-online.de
Internet: www.ng-verlag.de


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98 109.
. . (1843, .), . , 1914. [., 2011.]
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--- (2012), Poisson and statistics. Math. Scientist, vol. 37, pp. 149 150.
Bru B. (1981), Poisson, le calcul des probabilits et linstruction publique. In
Mtivier M. et al, Editors, Poisson et la science de son temps. Paris, pp. 51 94.

Cournot A. A. (1838), Sur lapplications du calcul des chances la statistique


judiciare. J. Math. Pures et Appl., sr. 1, t. 3, pp. 257 334.
---- (1843), Exposition de la thorie des chances et des probabilits. Paris, 1984.
Editor, B. Bru.
Gavarret J. (1840), Principes gnraux de statistique mdicale. Paris.
Heyde C. C., Seneta E. (1977), I. J. Bienaym. New York.
Poisson S. D. (1824), Sur la probabilit des rsultats moyens dobservations.
Conn. des temps pour 1827, pp. 273 302.
--- (1829), Sur la probabilit Ibidem, pour 1832, pp. 3 22.
--- (1836, April 11 and 18), Note sur la loi des grandes nombres. C. r. Acad. Sci.
Paris, t. 2, pp. 377 382, 395 400.
--- (1837), Sur la probabilit du tir a la cible. Mmorial de lartill., No. 4, pp. 59
94.
--- (1841), Lehrbuch der Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung und deren wichtigsten
Anwendungen. Braunschweig. bers. C. H. Schnuse.


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Philos. Paris, 1954, pp. 456 488.
Condorcet M. J. A. N. (1785), Essai sur lapplication de lanalyse la
probabilit des dcisions rendues la pluralit des voix. New York, 1972.
Courbaux Fr. (1833), On the Natural and Mathematical Laws concerning
Population, Vitality and Mortality. London.
Laplace P. S. (1812), Thorie analytique des probabilits. Oeuvr. Compl., t. 7,
No. 2. Paris, 1886.
Porter G. R. Tables of the Revenue, Population, etc of the United Kingdom, pt. 2.
, . 13 , 9-
, 1820 1843 .
Quetelet A., Smits E. (1832), Recherches sur la reproduction et la mortalit de
lhomme. Bruxelles.
Sheynin O. B. (1986), Quetelet as a statistician. Arch. Hist. Ex. Sci., vol. 36, pp.
281 325.

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.
, 4 6 ,
10 15 .
4 ,
10 25 .
2/5;
,
. [ .]
, 4
3 , 3 2 . []
[]. ,
, , [
],
,
. s ,
. s ,
s,
45

,
/s s.
3.
, ,
.
,
,
.
,

.
;
, , b
.
( ) p = a/(a + b). F
q, p + q = 1.
,
, F, [].
, ,
, ,
. b ,
, q
.
,

F, ,
b, F, q.
, q
, ,
, . ,
, ,
,
.
4. [!]
,
.
,
, .
1/2,
3.
.
, .
46


[], .
, ,
. , ,
, , ,
, , ,
( ,
).
, ,
, ,
, ,
, , ,
, ,

.

,

, 4.

,
5, , ,
, .
, ,
.

,
, ,
2. []
6,
,
.

. . 2

.
5. 1 7 1,
, . . ,
, 1. ,
, b
+ b = , 1
47

1, , , 1 b1
1 + b1 = 1, , ,
= /, 1 = 1/1.
, ,
.
1,
1 . ,
,
. ( 2)
1/1 = 1. , , 1, 2,

, 1, 2, , .
. , 12
,
. 1
1,
2 12 . .
, 1, 2, ,
, 1, 2, .
,
.
; ,
,

.
,
, , . .
.
, . , ,
, ,
, ,
= , 1 = 1 2, 2 = 1 2/4, 3 = 1 2/9, ,
(
) (1 / )sin . ,
, .
6. ,
.
,
48

.
,
- .

10 .
100 . ,
,
55 100. , ,
0, 1,
, 10 9.
10 ,
(1/2)10(1 + 10) = 55.
0.55,
i
0.55i.

Callet8.

i = 7, 0.55i = 0.0152243 ,
. . , 1/66 1/65.
0.55i
i , -
1.
7. m
, 12
m. F ,
q, + q = 1 ( 3). [?]
(m + n) , pmqn
F m n
[].
F
, . . [].
, ,
,

pmqn;
.
F , = q = 1/2, , m + n = ,
(1/2)
F m n .
,
49


. ,

.
m n
. ,
, .
,

,
. ,
, , 30
, ,
,
- , 30
, 15 ,
15 . ,
, ,
,
- .
, , ,
, 9.
8. qn F n
, . ,
, . . ,

. , r
q = 1 ,

r = 1 (1 )n.
,
, ,
, . ,
,
. ,
(1 )n = 1/2, n = lg2/lg(1 p).
-
, = 1/6, n = 3.8018
,
50

,
.
= 1/36, n = 24.614
25 ,
2410.
r , ,
,
, n
,
.
,
(1 ), n,
(1 )n .

, .
,

.

(1 p )n = 1 np + Cn2 p 2 Cn3 p 3 + ...,
n , n 1, n 2,
n,
(1 p )n = 1 np + Cn2 p 2 Cn3 p 3 + ...
enp ( )

r = 1 enp.
= 1/n, (e 1)/e
n 1/n. n
(e 1)/e
2/3 .
9. 1 11, . .
,
1 1,
, , 1
, 1.
51

, b
= + b,
, 1 ,
, = /,
1 = ( 1)/( 1),

pp1 =

a (a 1)
c(c 1)

pp1 =

ab
c( c 1)


.
, m + n
w
m n ,

w=

a (a 1)...(a m + 1)b(b 1)...(b n + 1)


.
c( c 1)...( c m n + 1)

m1+n1 m1 n1
, ( m1 n1) m1
b n1 .

a m1
b n1
,
.
c m1 n1 c m1 n1
m1 [] 0 m 1
0 n 1 n1, (m + n)
, , w,
.
,
/ b/, m
n ambn/cm+n.
w, b
m
n,
52

. n = 0,
m

w=

a (a 1)...(a m + 1)
.
c( c 1)...( c m + 1)

, , 16
.
. = 16,
= 32, m = 16

w=

16!
1
=
.
17 18 ... 31 32 601080390

1/60107.
60107 , 2/3
12.
10.
1, 2,
.
, i
1 , 1 , 2 2
. .
, .
, i
5 1, 2,

p1 =

a1
a
, p2 = 2 , ...
ic1
ic2

1 a
a
p = [ 1 + 2 + ...].
i c1
c2
,
. i
,
.
, i
53

. ,
, .
,
1/i, . . , ,
.

,
, . ,
.
1/i, ,
, ,
;
, , , .
, a1/c1, a2/c2, ,
, i.
,
, , 1, 2,
,
1, 2, 1, 2,
,
. i , 1 + 2 +
.

1 1

[
+ 2 + ...]
i

, , , . .
.
11. ,
, - ,
, 5 1 ,
,
,
, .

w =

1 5
1 3
53
+ =
.
2 6
2 7
84

, ,
, = 4/7 = 48/84.
54

1/2,
, ,
, .
, ,
48/84 , 53/84.
,
1
, .
, ,
n ,
.
n + 1 : n
; n 1 1 ; n 2 2 . ., n
. 1/(n + 1)

p1 =

1 n
1 n 1
, p2 =
, ...,
n +1 n
n +1 n

w=

1 n
n 1
nn
1
[ +
+ ... +
]= ,
n +1 n
n
n
2

,
, , .
,
, , w > 1/2.
n. i
n = 2i + 1.
i + 1 , :
2i + 1 ; 2i 1 , i + 1 i
.

w=

1
1 3i + 2
[(2i + 1) + 2i + (2i 1) + ... + (i + 1)] =
.
(i + 1)(2i + 1)
2 2i + 1

i = 0 1, ;
3/4,
i. n = 2i + 2 i + 1
. , ,

55

2i + 2 ; 2i + 1 1 ;
i + 2 i .

w=

1
1 3i + 4
[(2i + 2) + (2i + 1) + 2i + ... + (i + 2)] =
.
(i + 1)(2i + 2)
2 2i + 2

, w = 1 3/4
i = 0 . i

i
.
4(i + 1)(2i + 1)
1/24 i = 1.
, .
, , , 1
1, 2 2, ,

1 + 2 + = , 1 + 2 + = .

/, 10.
;
1/ 1/
.
,

p=

c1 a1 c2 a2
a
+ + ... = .
c c1 c c2
c

1, 2,
1, 2, /.
,
; , .
, ,
, , , ,
.
, ,
, /. 2
1 , 1,

56

2.
, : 2
1 2; 1 1 1 1
2; 1, 2.

1
1 1
1 1
(1 + 0), ( + 1), ( + 1).
2
2 2
2 2
2/3 ,
.
, , D1, D2, ,
1 , 1 , ,
, 2 2 . . , -
.
k1 D1, k2 D2 .
. 5
1 = k11/1, 2 = k22/2, . .

w = k1a1/c1 + k2a2/c2 +
1, 2, ,
k1, k2, ,
10 .
D1, D2, , k1, k2,
, , ,
w .
13. F
, ,
q, ( 3) + q = 1.

1, 2, q1, q2, .
, ,

= 1 + 2 + , q = q1 + q2 + , 1 + 2 + + q1 + q2 + = 1.

,
,
.
, .

57

p=

lp1 + lp2 + ...


,
lp1 + lp2 + ... + lq1 + lq2 + ...

l .
1, 2, , q1, q2,

p=

1a1 + 2a2 + ...


.
1c1 + 2c2 + ...

, ,
, ,
,
,

.
,
2,
.
14. 5 10 ,

.
F,
. ,
,
q. ,
m n , .

+ q = 1, m + n = .
,
, pmqn ( 7).
, K
[], ,
( 10)
58

= Kpmqn.
K, , A,
B, C, D, , , . K
, . . !. [] m
, , , D,
, !/m!.
F m = n ,
m!/n!. m , F n ,
(. . K)
K=

!
.
m!n!

K m n, K = Cm = Cn .
, (m + 1)- (p + q)
(n + 1)-
q. , ,
q F , ,
,
( + q) .
+ 1. ,
, ,
K, q.
p = q
m = n, ,
m n = 1, .
15. ,
m .
m + 1 ,
, 1, , , n m .

0, 1 1, 2 2, , m
n. 10
n + 1 , . .

P = p + p 1q + C2 p 2 q 2 + ... + Cn p m q n ,
, n + 1 (p + q) ,
q. m = 0 n =
59

= (p + q) = 1, ,
, F,
, .
m = 1 F
,
(p + q) q , r
8. = 2i + 1, , , F,
m = i + 1 n = i.
= 2i, , [ ] m = n
= i, ,
, F.
16.
,
,
. , ,
,
,
q. ,
, b .
.
, + = 1,
.
, ,
+ b 1 , ,
b. ,
, ,

. , b,
b , , ,
, .
, ,
, + b 1 .
, ,
, ,
= a + b 1, m = a,
n = b 1. , , = 2/3, q = 1/3, = 4 b = 2,
= 112/243, = 131/243, > .
, , , . .
,
60

,
13.
, ,
, ,
, , .
, :.
17. F ,
, , E, F, G,
. p, q, r
. 14
m, n, o

! p m q n r o
, p + q + r = 1, m + n + o = ,
m ! n !o !
. . (p + q + r) .
,
, p, q, r, E, F, G

. ,
, m,
, m
. ,
,

. , p, q,
r,
E, F, G, ,
, F, q. 14
q = q + r + , p + q = 1.
F ,
. ,
m
q q .
, ,
, m
(1, 2, , m);
.
61


, 1/m.

n1, n2, , nm

(17.1)

0, 1, 2,
n1 + n2 + + nm = .
, , U , - 1
n1 , 2 n2 , , m m ,

(t1 + t2 + + tm) = .

t1, t2, , tm, U ,

t1n1 t2n2 ...tmnm ,
, 1/m.
N,
U = N/m .
N , (17.1)
N=

!
,
n1 ! n2 !...nm !

, 0! = 1.
s ,
s = n1 + 2n2 + + mnm.
, (17.1)
,
[ ],
62

N, N, N,
V U,
V = (1/m )(N + N + )
s.
V
t1, t2, , tm t, t2, , tm.
, 15
T = (t + t2+ , + tm) .
, N + N +
M ts ,
V = Ms/m .
, m, s
. -
1, A2, , A ,
m , 1, 2, , m,
.
,
1 6. m = 6,
V s .
= 3,
T = t3(1 + t + t2+ , + t5)3, V = Ms/63.
16 ; ,
, M3 M18, M4 M17, , M10
M11, ,
t = 1, . . 63. , M3, M4 , M10,
, M11, M12, , M18, (1/2)63.
10
1/2, 11 ,
, ,
, passe-dix.

, ,
(1 6,
2 5, 3 4)16.
63

21 ,
10, 10 . []
s 18,
.
M3 = M18= 1, M4 = M17 = 3, M5 = M16 = 6, M6 = M15 = 10,
M7 = M14 = 15, M8 = M13 = 21, M9 = M12 = 25, M10 = M11 = 27.
63 = 216,
.
18. ,

. , 9,
b
, w m
n -
. w
; .
- = Kw, K
, 14.
m + n = , a + b = c, a m = a,
b n = b, c = a + b = c.
a, b, c ,
a, b c.
K w,
=

!a ! b ! c!
,
m ! n ! a ! b! c !


.
,
17
= Cn

a (a 1)...( a m + 1)b(b 1)...(b n + 1)


.
c(c 1)...(c +1)

, m
, n + 1 ,
64

m n 0; 1 1; , n n.
,
Pc(c 1)...( c + 1) = a (a 1)...( a + 1) +

ba (a 1)...( a + 2) + C2b(b 1)a (a 1)...(a + 3) +

C3b(b 1)(b 2)a (a 1)...( a + 4) +


... + Cn b(b 1)...(b n + 1)a ( a 1)...(a m + 1).
m = 0 n = = 1
c(c 1)...(c + 1) = a ( a 1)...(a + 1) +
ba (a 1)...( a + 2) + C2b(b 1)a (a 1)...(a + 3) +

C3b(b 1)(b 2)a (a 1)...( a + 4) + +


b(b 1) (b + 2a) + b(b 1) (b + 1),
, .

( 1)( 1)( 2) ( m + 1) m
,
m = 0.
= 0,
.
19.

m + n = , 18.
G , ,
:
G = Cc . 1
, c + 1
, (c + 1)G-1
. , , 1
,
:

G =

c +1
G 1.

= 1 G1 = c.

65

G2 = [( c 1) / 2]G1 = Cc2 , G3 = [(c 2) / 3]G2 = Cc3 ,


G4 = [(c 3) / 4]G3 = Cc4 ,
, , G .
Gm Gn Gm c
a m b n.

Gm = Cam , Gn = Cbn .
Gm Gn (m + n) = ,
a + b = c
m n .

,
, . .

Gm Gn
,
G

18.
m
.
20. 18
,
F. ,
, ,
,
.
p1 q1 F
, p2 q2, , , p q , ,

p1 + q1 = p2 + q2 = = p + q = 1.
, m ,
F ( m) - ; m
p1p2 p m, n
q1q2 q Qn. m pi, qi
Qn, m pi, qi
Qn. m Qn

66

mQn, 14
K. .
,
. u v

R = (up1 + vq1) (up2 + vq2) (up + vq )


= m + n 19. ,
+ 1 ,
u v. umvn
F
m n . m = 3.

R = u3p1p2p3 + u2v (p1p2q3 + p1p3q2 + p2p3q1 +


uv2 (p1q2q3 + p2q1q3 + p3q1q2) + v3q1q2q3.
u3
; u2v
F. ,
, F ; F
, ; F ,
. uv2
F , , ,
v3
F.

,
10 ,
. ,
F.
F
m n m + n ,
, F.

[ ] ,
,
,
.
21.
,

67

, , .
.
E, F, G, H,
. , ,
p, q, r, s, ,
g , F
. .
g, - ,

: gp , gq . .
m , a,
b, c, d, E, F, G, H,

a + b + c + d + = m, p = a/m,
q = b/m, r = c/m, s = d/m,
m,
m , , , g
,
g, qg, ,
,
, .
,
, ,
,
.
,
.
, ,
, .
,

.
F
q. , F,

= q. , , ,
.
,
,
. :

68

,
.
22. 19
,
.
, ,
,
.
.
n , m
, l ,
, ,
[ ].
19 l , n m
Cnl Cml

= Cml Cnl =

m( m 1)...( m l + 1)
.
n (n 1)...(n l + 1)

,
(1 )/. ,
, ,

= [(1 )/] + 1 = 1/.


,
, , ,
. 8, ,

(1 ) = 1/2, = ln2/ = 0.69315/,


n = 90, m = 5.
l = 3,
= 543/908988, = 11 748, x = 8143.13

11 748 ,
5500 ( ).
4 5

69

, .
,
8144 ,
8143 . , ,
[ n/m = 18]

(1 1/18)x = 1/2, x = lg2/(lg18 lg17) = 12 137


,
12 , , 13.
, 90
85 84 (Laplace 1812/1886,
. 200 201)19.
,
, , ,
,
. 20. ,
, 100
,
1 (17/18)100 0.997.
88 , 12
,
, 1/2.
,
,
.
,
,
21. ,
, , ,

.
22
. ,
0.011 , . (1825).
,
, ,
.

.
, , ,
,

70


.
,
,
. ,

, ,
,
23.
23.
24 ,
.
60 000 , 1/3 ,
. ,
,

.
, g, g1,
, 1, , , 1, ,
g + g11 +
g, g1, ,
, ,
.

,
,
.
, ,
,
, .
g, g1, ,
, n, n1, ,
(1 + )n, (1 + )n1 ,... ,
. ,
,
,
=

gp
gp
+ 1 1 n1 + ...
n
(1 + )
(1 + )

71

,
-
, .

,
,
,
.
24. ,
, ,
, ,
. ,

,
. ,
, , ,
.

, ,
. ,
,
. ,

.
,

;
.
,
,

25.
25. 21, ,
,
. ,
. , , .
, 2 ,
, 4 , , , 2n,
n- . , ,
m ;
.

72

,
26. ,
n- 1/2n. ,
(n 1) ,
1/2n1. 1/2 ,
1/2n11/2 = 1/2n. 2n ,
1 .
m . ,
1m ,
m , . . ,
,
.
- , ,
, , , ,
.
,
. ,
, ,
. ,
. b,
, b,
27.
,
b = 2(1 + h),

, h ,
. m, , ,
,
, .
, m
b,
1/2+1 1/2m.
, . . ,
, ,

1
1 1
1
1
= + (1 + h )[1 + + + ... + m 1 ] = + (1 + h )[1 m ]
2
2 4
2
2
m; [?],
m

73

= + 1 + h.
,
,
, + 1 + 2. ,
. = 26
, 28
. ,
, (Laplace 1812/1886,
. 451), , . , ,
, , ,
.
26.

, , ,
28.
, ,
-
.
.
(1 )/2,
, ,
.
,
, , ,
, , .
1/2 .
,
, .
[(1 + )/2]2 [(1 )/2]2
10 , . .
(1 + 2)/2.
[(1 + )/2][1 )/2]
(1 2)/2.

1 2
2 2
=
1

.
1 + 2
1 + 2
, ,

. = 1/10 98
. , 8
74

,
, 6
. = 0
,
. 0
,
.

1
1
1
1
3
[ (1 + )]3 + (1 )]3 = (1 + 3 2 ); 1 (1 + 3 2 ) = (1 2 )
2
2
4
4
4
[].
, , ,
,
. - ,
. ,
, ,
.
.
,
. ,
.
, p
, q F, + q =
1. , ,
-
.
, m
, w, .
m
10
(p + )m + (q )m,
, F . , ,
F,

(p )m + (q + )m.

75

, ,
,
1/2.
10
: w = P + Q,
w = (1/2)[(p + )m + (q )m + (p )m + (q + )m],
P = p m + Cm2 p m 2 2 + Cm4 p m 4 4 + ...,
Q = q m + Cm2 q m 2 2 + Cm4 q m 4 4 + ...

= 0,
pm + qm. , , w > pm + qm,
, -
,
.

1. , ,
1836 . ,
( 1843/1970, . 29). , ,
, .
2. 3.
, (De Moivre 1712/1984, . 237),
. 13.
3. .
4. (1845/1951, . 29),

. .
5. ? ,
; , ,
(1950/1954, . 184).
6. .
7. ,
(1718/1738, . 6), . 9.
8. Franois Callet. Paris, 1795.
9. (1776/1891, . 152; 1814/1999,
837 ).
10. (1718/1756, . 37 38) .
, ,
.
11. . . 7.
12. . 8.
13. , !
14. , E + (F + G + ),
F = F E.

76

15. , a0 + a1t + + amtm


{a}.
16. .
17. , m n ,

'/'. , , ,
,
.
, ,
m n , , /.
,
= 4, b = 3, = 7, = 2, ' = 5.
m n ,
m = 2, n = 0; m = 1, n = 1; m = 0, n = 2.
2/7, 4/7 1/7,
2/5, 3/5 4/5.
5 10

2 2 4 3 1 4 4 a
+ + = = .
7 5 7 5 7 5 7 c
. ,
[]. , = b,
, , ,
, , ,
, .
1/2. , ,
b, , .
, , m n
, b, , ':b' = :b,

':' = :.
11,
. . (2002).
. . .
18. ?
19. . , 1774
1786 ., . (1712/1984, 18 19; 1718/1756,
39)
.
20. (Montmort 1708,
Prface).
21. (Bertrand 1888, . XXII):
, .
22. (publics), , ,
. .
. 12 .

77

23. ,
1 1838 .
24. (1812/1886, . 189)
,
(. ). ,
, .
25. .
26. ( ),
?
27. (
1708/1713, . 402), ,
(1738) .
.
. ,
-
.
(Freudenthal 1951) ,
.
28.
(1812, . 7).

. . (1950), . ., 1954.
. (1843, .), . .
. .
. . (1845), .
. . ., . 5. . ., 1951, . 26 87.
. ., Sheynin O. (2002), Sampling without replacement: history and
applications. Z. f. Geschichte u. Ethik d. Naturwissenschaften, Technik u. Medizin,
Bd. 10, pp. 181 187.
. (1738, .), .
. , 1999, . 11 27.
Bertrand J. (1888), Calcul des probabilits. Paris, 1907, New York, 1970, 1972.
De Moivre A. (1712, .), De mensura sortis, or The measurement of chance.
Intern. Stat. Rev., vol. 52, 1984, pp. 236 262. Commentary by A. Hald on pp. 229
236.
--- (1718), Doctrine of Chances. London, 1738, 1756. Reprint of last edition: New
York, 1967.
Freudenthal H. (1951), Das Petersburger Probleme im Hinblick auf
Grenzwertstze der Wahrscheinlichkeitsrechnung. Math. Nachr., Bd. 4, pp. 184
192.
Laplace P. S. (1776), Recherches sur lintgration des quations diffrentielles
aux diffrences finies. Oeuvr. Compl., t. 8. Paris, 1891, pp. 69 197.
--- (1812), Thorie analytique des probabilits. Ibidem, t. 7, No. 1. Paris, 1886.
--- (1814, .), .
. ., (1999),
. . ., . 834 863.
Mondesir E. (1837), Solution dune question qui se prsente dans le calcul des
probabilits. J. math. pures et appl., t. 2, pp. 3 10.

78

Montmort P. R. (1708), Essay danalyse sur les jeux de hazard. Paris, 1713, New
York, 1980.
Poisson S.-D. (1825 1826), Sur lavantage du banquier au jeu de trente-etquarante. Ann. math. pures et appl., t. 16, pp. 173 208.

79

2. , .
,

/,
1. 34, . 95 , 2 . p1
pn.
2. 37, . 101 ,
y1 y2, y2,
y2 y1. ,
yx yx-1 x (x 1), (y 1), .
3. 38, 104 . 10 n
n.
, . 106 , wn
wi wi, ,
qnpn qipi.
4. 39, . 109 , 6.
an ai, an ax.
5. 40, . 113 .
38, 39.
6. 45, . 124 ,
27 26.
7. 46, . 125
m
x (1 x)n (1 x)m.
8. 53, . 141 .
, , ,
.
9. 55, . 145 ,
1, 2, , , m
.
10. 56, . 149 .
, .
11. 60, . 156 .
( + u) z,
2.
.
27.

80

,
1.
,
.
, ,
.
, ,

,
, .
,
,
.
-,
2.
,
,
,
.
; ,
, .
1 F.
= 1, ,
. = 0,
F. ,
,
, . . ,
, ,
, (hasard)3.
, ,
,
,
. ,
,
,
,
. ,

,
. , ,

. ,

81

, , ,
4, .
, ,
, ,
.
.
,
,
,

, . .
.

. ,


5.
,
.

. ,
, ,
.
, ,
, . ,
,
,

. ,
, , ,
,
. , ,
,
.
,

F.
,
F. ,
, ,
, F,
,

82

,
.
28. ,
m ,

.
, - .
.

, ,
, ,
, .
,
1, 2, , m
m

1, 2, , m

: n ,
n . , n
, . ,

w1, w2, , wm

, wn
n; , ,
n. ,

wn =

pn
.
p1 + p2 + ... + pn + ... + pm

,
,
. m n
n.

83

, . . n n.
, n.
n :
p1 =

, p2 = 2 ,..., pm = m ,

, .
n ,
n,
;
.
1
, 1, 2 2 . .
10 wn ,
, , n,
, n.
n 1 + 2+ + m:
wn =

n
.
1 + 2 + ... + m


wn, .
29.

, . 9.


, .
, , .
m , , , ,
,
b, , ,
- . . ,
,
. n
n (n m).
a + b + c + d + = s 1,
ab + ac + ad + bc + bd + cd + = s2,

84

abc + abd + bcd + = s3, abcd + = s4,

s2 Cm2 , s3 Cm3 . .
s1/m.
, , ,

(s1 a)/(m 1) (s1 b)/(m 1),
. . ,
9 10,

1
[ ( s1 a ) + ( s1 b) + ( s1 c) + ...]
m 1

. , , , ,
, , ,
6, , 28,
= a/s1, = b/s1, = c/s1,
a(s1 a) + b(s1 b) + c(s1 c) + = 2s2.

2s2/[(m 1)s1].
(s1 a b)/(m 2),

.
, (s1 a c)/(m 2) . .

1
[ g ( s1 a b) + h ( s1 a c ) + k ( s1 b c ) + ...].
m2
g, h, k, ,
, , . . 28
g = ab/s2, h = ac/s2, k = bc/s2,


ab(s1 a b) + ac(s1 a c) + bc(s1 b c) + = 3s3

85


3s3/[(m 3)s2].
. ,
n

s1
2 s2
3s3
nsn
,
,
,...,
,
m ( m 1) s1 (m 2) s2
( m n + 1) sn 1

n
(. 5), . . (1/Cmn ) sn .
, ,
n
n , , , ,
, ,
n n
.
. n = m Cmm = 1 sm,
5.
30. , , , ,
, n.
p1, p2, , pm

:
pn , , n
. ,
wn.
,
( 5). ,
m
( 10), . .
pnwn, m n
:
w = p1w1 + p2w2 + + pnwn + + pmwm.

w1, w2,

86

w =

p1 p1 + p2 p2 + ... + pn pn + ... + pm pm
.
p1 + p2 + ... + pn + ... + pm


.
,
,
.
,
.
G,

g1, g2, , gn, , gm,


. gn ,
n, gn, ,
wn, . . wn , G
gn. w
m G.
pn pn
, gn G.
31.
-
, . , ,
, 3 1 ,
, 3/4.
,
,
(3/4)2 = 9/16 .

- ,
9
7 . G
, ,
,
, .
,
,
. -,
1,
87

G, E
, ,
, E.
, ,
1, G,
, 1 - ,
E, G,
( 1).
, 1 k
E, h
, k
(1 k), h (1 h) ,
h k,
(h k).
32. , ,
wn
w,

wn =

pn
, w =
pn

p p .
p
n

m n n = 1 m.
, m .

, n .
m
: m ; (m 1) 1
; ; 1 (m 1) . ,
1, 2, , . .
.
, m n ,
p = n/m

1
2n
= ( m + 1), wn =
2
m(m + 1)

, n
. 1/2 m = n = 3.
, ,
, n = m,

88

2/(m + 1). E ,
w ,
.
pn = pn =

n
,
m

pn =

1
m2

n .
2

n (n + 1) m(m + 1)( m + 2)
=
,
1 2
3!

n =

m(m + 1)
1 2

= 2

n (n + 1)
m(m + 1)(2m + 1)
2m + 1
n =
, w =
.
1 2
3!
3m


,
pn =

n 1
,
m 1

pn =

1
n(n 1).
m( m 1)

pn = n/m, pn = (m + 1)/2 w = 2/3,

n ( n 1)
(m 1)m(m + 1)
=
.
1 2
3!

,
, m
2/3. w
2/3,
, m ,
. , m
(m 1) ,
m/(m + 1).
, 1 2, , m
.
; , . . (m 1)
, ,
. , ,
89

m ,
1/m.
p1 = 1, p2 =

1
p1
m
, w1 =
=
m
p1 + p2 m + 1

. m = 1
w1, 1/2,
. [ .]
33.
,
, , ,
.
n . 0 n,
: 1 1
(1); 2 1 (2); 2 1 (3).

p1 = (1/2)x(1/2)nx = 1/2n, p2 = (2/3)x(1/3)nx = 2x/3n,
p3 = (1/3)x(2/3)nx = 2nx/3n.

3n + 2n+x + 22nx = ,
w1 = 3n/, w2 = 2n+x/, w3 = 22nx/
. ,
.
p1 = 1/2, p2 = 2/3, p3 = 1/3,
w =

(1/2)3n + (2/3)2 n + x + (1/3)2 2 n x


.
3n + 2 n + x + 22 n x

n = 2x
w1 =

9x
8x
(1/2)9 x + 8 x 1

,
w
=
w
=
,
w
=
= .
2
3
9 x + 2 8x
9 x + 2 8x
9 x + 2 8x
2

w 1/2,

, ,

90

. , 9x
, 8x, . . ,
,
.
,
.
i , = 2i n = 3i,
w =

(1/2)27i + (2/3)32i + (1/3)16i


.
27i + 32i + 16i

i 2/3.
w2 , 2
1 ,
.
, n = 3.
w =

(1/2)27 x + (2/3)16 x + (1/3)32 x


.
27 x + 16 x + 32 x


1/3. w3 , 1 2
.
, ,
, w

,
, ,
, . .
, .
, -

,
,
. ,
1/2, 2/3 1/3, . .
/n = 1/2, 2/3 1/3 ,
, n
.
34. ,
1, 2, ,

91

, . ,
- ,
, ,

, .

7, ,
, .
, 28
,
. ,
-
1, 2, ,
. ,
An pn/pn, pn, ,
n
, .
10 []
.
, 1, 2,
1 1 p1, a2 A2,
p2, , , ai i pi.
s = a1 + a2 + + ai ,

i . [.
] anpn
n 1 i.
n

wn =

an pn
.
an pn


an/s = qn, an =sqn

wn =

qn pn
.
qn pn

,
1, 2, i,

92

. qn
, n, wn ,
. 1,
2, , qn wn
.
wn ,

qn pn,
, ,
[].
w E,
, , ,

w = wn pn =

qn pn pn

q p
n

, ,
, pn , n,
, .
wn, ,
,

wn pn
q p p
= n n n .
wn pn qn pn pn
pn, ,
n,

w =

q p p p .
q p p
n

, w, , pn
pn pn pnpn, n
pnpn , . .
.
35. ,

.
. , , .

93

:
; .
,
.
, 32,
2/3. 2
, .
, , ,
16 16
. ( 18)
q1 = 1615/3231 q2 = 21616/3231 1 = 1,
2 = 1/2,
w1 =

q1 p1
15
=
q1 p1 + q2 p2 16

. ,
2:1 15:16.
w1 , ,
:
,
, 15 31.
, m , b .
n, (n 1)
a b . ,

w1 =

a a
b b
, w2 =
.
m n +1
m n +1

, w1
,
(m n + 1) (a a) a
b . w2,
w1 + w2 = 1, a + b = m a + b = n 1.
36. 34 ,

, .

, ,.

94

,
,
.
,
( 3).
,
,
, .
, ,
q
.
q
.
,
. ,
, .
1 ,
, .
q,
1 q . r
, . .
, 34
r=

pq
q(1 q )(2 p 1)
, rq =
,
pq + (1 p )(1 q )
pq + (1 p )(1 q)

, (r q) ( 1/2) .
,

> 1/2 < 1/2.
, , = 1/2,
,
, .

,
q = 1/2 r = .
.
, , q,
, ,
, q , q/(1 )
, r
. ,
95

,
.

, ,
,
,

.
,
, ,
. , ,
, 1
q,
r
.
[] ,
.
37. , ,
, .
, , r
,
. ,
r,
, r r
q r,
r =

pr
qpp
=
.
pr + (1 p)(1 r )
qpp + (1 q)(1 p )(1 p)

,
, .
, . .
, 1 r.
r1 ,
.
r 36, q (1 r),
r1 =

96

p(1 r )
p(1 p )(1 q )
=
.
p(1 r ) + r (1 p)
p(1 p )(1 q ) + qp(1 p)

= , r1 (1 q).

,
.
,
.
, .
, ,
.
q
yx yx1 ( 1)
, (x1) ,
, , . yx
r 36 q (x1)
yx1:
yx =

p ( x 1) y x 1
,
p ( x 1) y x 1 + (1 p ( x 1) )(1 y x 1 )

y0 q.
= 1, 2, 3, ,
y1 =

pq
pq
, y2 =
,...
pq + (1 p )(1 q )
py1 + (1 p)( q y1 )

. . y2, y1, y3 y2 . .

1 p ( x 1)
= x ,
p ( x 1)
1-

yx =

y x 1
c
=
.
y x 1 + x (1 y x 1 )
c + (1 c )1 2 ... x

. ( 1) ,

97

y x 1 =

c
(1 c )1 2 ... x 1
, 1 y x 1 =
.
c + (1 c )12 ... x 1
c + (1 c )1 2 ... x 1

yx
. yx,
, = 0. ,
12 x ,
y0 =q = c.
yx =

q
q + (1 q)1 2 ... x

i i
, , i > 1
< 1, = 1,
.
, ,
, i > 1 , yx
, ,
. ,
< 1, ,
, .
, 1, 2, , x
.
i

i = 1

4g2
,
(2i 1) 2 2

g
, , i
.
cosg:

(1
i

4g2
q
) = cos g y =
2 2
(2i 1)
q + (1 q) cos g

g /2.
g = h 1, h

98

y =

2q
.
2 q + (1 q )(e h + e h )

. h 1
, ,
, y ,
q , .
,
, ,
,
.
38.
, - ,
, .
,
,
, . ,
,
, .
,
1, 2, ..., m 1, 2, , m ,

= 1 + 2 + + m
.
m 1, 2, , m .
,
q1 = a1/, q2 = a2/, , qm = am/.

, n,
,
w1, w2, , wm. 34.

n.
pn, ,
Cn, qn, wn, pn n.
u , v
, , , (1 u) (1 v)
.

99

n- ,
, , n.
5 uv. ,
, - n,
,
, n, . . (m 1)
. , n,
1/(m 1), , ,
-
.
,
, ,
(1 u)(1 v)/(m 1). ,
, ,
n. , ,
, , n.
, ,
. 10 ,
, n, ,
,
pn = uv +

(1 u )(1 v )
.
m 1

i, i n, ,
, n.
, , ,
i, (m 1)
, n 1/(m 1).
u(1 v)/(m 1) ,
n.
, v(1 u)/(m 1). ,
,
, (m 1) ,
, 1/(m 1) , ,
- n.
,
n, (m 1) , n.
1/(m 1)2 , ,
n, n.
1/(m 1)2, n, ,
, .

100

(m 2), ,
, ,
i ( ), n,
. ,
(1 u)(1 v) ,
n, (1 u)(1 v)(m 2)/(m 1)2.


(m 1) ,
pi =

u (1 v )
v (1 u )
(m 2)(1 u )(1 v )
+
+
.
(m 1)2
m 1
m 1

pn
pn + (m 1)pi = 1,

(38.1)

,
n, m C1, C2, , Cm,
.
, 34

wn =

qn pn
qi pi
, wi =
,
qn pn + qi pi
qi pi + qi pi

i 1 m
n. pi i,
qi n ( n)/, wn
pn, qn, pi, qi
(m 1)2

, = (m 1)[uv + (1 u)(1 v)]an,


+ ( an )
= (m 1)(1 v)u + (m 1)(1 u)v + (m 2)(1 u)(1 v).
wn =

, n
;
1 wn. ,
i 1 wn
qipi/qipi ai/( an),

101

wi =

(1 wn )ai
.
an

,
, , ,
, -
. , ,
- ,
, , ,
,
. ;
,
.

.
,
, wn m = 2 an = a.
r, ,
:
r=

, = [uv + (1 u )(1 v )]a.


+ [(1 v )u + (1 u )v ]( a )



. r,
36.

p = uv + (1 u)(1 v)

, .
,
, . . ,

.

, .

1 p = (1 v)u + (1 u)v,
102

,
,
,
. , q = a/, 1 q = ( a)/
.
r 36,
.
1, 2, , m ,
an = 1 = m, wn,

wn = uv +

(1 u )(1 v )
.
m 1

, n
, ,
pn, . . ,
n ,
. m
m ,
.
39. ,
,
, . ,
,
.
, T1, T2, , Tx ( + 1) .
, ,
,
, n.
, Tx,
.
Tx , , ,
, ,
Tx-1, , n .
.
yx yx n i
n i.
, , an ai, .
an/ ai/.
34 n

103

wn =

an y x
.
an y x + ai y x

i 1 m
n. , yx i, ai
an ( an),
wn =

an y x
.
an y x + ( an ) y x

wi i ,
(1 wn) ai/( an).
, , yx yx
. kx
, Tx , (1 kx)
, , .
, ,
n, Tx1.
n
kxyx1. n,
Tx1 .

(1 kx)(1 yx1). , Tx
n, (m 1) , ,
, Tx1 , 1/(m 1),
n (1 kx)(1 yx1)/(m 1).
, Tx n
, Tx1 ,
, Tx1 - . ,
n i

y x = k x y x 1 +

(1 k x )(1 y x 1 )
(1 k x )(1 y x 1 )
, yx = k x y x 1 +
.
m 1
m 1

, , yx yx,

. yx
.

104

1 c(mk1 1)( mk2 1)...( mk x 1 1)(mk x 1)


+
,
m
(m 1) x

yx =

( 1) ,

1 c(mk1 1)( mk2 1)...(mk x 1 1)


+
,
m
( m 1) x 1
m 1 c( mk1 1)(mk2 1)...( mk x 1 1)
1 y x 1 =

.
m
(m 1) x 1
y x 1 =

yx
. , = 0
, yx,
, pn 38. , = 0,
,
pn =(1/m) + c, c = (mpn 1)/m.

1
(mk1 1)( mk2 1)...(mk x 1)
[1 + (mpn 1) X ], X =
.
m
( m 1)2

yx =

, i,
n, yx
pi 38
yx =

1
[1 + (mpi 1) X ],
m

, pi, i. wn
, n, Tx,
:
wn =

[1 + ( mpn 1)) X ]an


.
[1 + (mpn 1)) X ]an + [1 + ( mpi 1)) X ]( an )

.

X = h1h2 ...hx , hx = k x

1 kx
.
m 1
105

m , kx ,
,
,
1.
, ,
, . h1,
h2, , ,
.
wn ,
, an/. ,
,
,
, .

,
,
( 37).
,
an = 1 = m, , (38.1),
wn = [1 + (mpn 1)X]/m.

yx, . .
, n
Tx n,
. , yx = wn,
(Laplace 1812/1886, 44) , ( an)/an = m 1.
40. , , k1, k2,
m u , ,
, . u
,
v , .
, ,
, . ,
n, 1/(m 1).
, ,
k
k = u v +

(1 u )(1 v )
m 1

u = u1 v = v1, = 0 pn 38.

106

k ,
,
, u v , .
. , , m
, n. ,
, , u = v = 0
k = 1/(m 1), m = 2.
, ,
, ,
; m = 3 ,
. ,
,
1/(m 1) k
m.
,
,
, 1. ,
, , 1 ,
v = 0.
: ,
1/m.
.
u = 1/m v = 0, , ,
k = 1/m. , h = 0 wn = an/,
, n,
.
41. 7

,
,
.
,
.
, - ,
,
, , - ,
, , ,
, - .
, 8,
26 , a, b, c, , x, , z,
, -
.

107

, ,
,
. 26
,
, -
, , b, p, w, , q, a, t,
, .
,
, 30
, , ,
1/230 109.
, . ,
30 ,
, .

.
, ( 27), , ,
, ,
. ,


. , ,
, .
, .
42. 1, 2, ,
F1, F2, , ,
, 30
, 15 , 15 ,
1, 2. 30

,
.
m, n,
, .
p = 1/(m + n).
, ,
; ,
- . ,
,
,
. , p1, p2, ,

108

1, 2,
F1, F2,
p1 + p2 + = 1,

, 1/m
, ,
m.
, ,
. ,
, , ;
, , . . m + n
, . ,

1, 2, , F1, F2,
, ,
.
1; ,
, , .
, p1
1, ,
. r
, .
28 r = p1/( p1 + p). , r
, , p1
p.

109, 1/109. ,
, ,
[ ], 1000,
1/1000 p1, r
, , , ,
, p1 .
, , ,
30 ,
,
, , , ,
- - ,
.
, r ,

, ,

109

.
,
,
.
, 34 r.
,
, 1, 2, , F1, F2,
. , , ,
, ,
, .
, ,
.

, ,
.
1, 2, ;
, ,
, , ,
.
, ,
,
. , ,
9. , ,
,
, ,

.
43. ,
, ,
, ,
, 32 34
. ,
,
,
.


,
,
, (
) (
).

110

, ,
, .
, ,
[ ] ,
,
,
.
wm ( 28),
, m p1, p2,
, . 32
w, w = X:X,

Xdx = Xdx.
0

, dx
w,
1

w = Xdx Xdx.
0

,
, , , w
. , w
,
30
1

w = X w = XX dx Xdx.

, Ydx
qn 34
Ydx.

1

w = XYdx XYdx,
0

111

w = XX Ydx XYdx.
0

44. ,
0 1, ,
.
, ,
Y ,
. , 0
1, ,
,
,
w,

= XYdx XYdx.

,
, ,
, . , ,
n
,
. ,
,
n.
,
, ,
= 1/2 = 1.
, Y
,
1

1
X = x , Xdx =
,
n +1
0
n

Xdx = n + 1 (1 2

n +1

1/2

= (1 1/2n+1).
,
.

112

, , . ,
, , = 3/4,

, , ,
, .
45. ( 30), ,
G,
G10.
G ;
Ydx, w.
0 1,
Ydx ,
w.
Y , ,
Ydx = 1.
( 23), G,

,
, . . xYdx = 0 = 1.
; , ,
:
1

= xYdx.
0

Y ,
Ydx 111,
. G,
,
, ,
G ,
,
.
, ,
, Y ,
,
Y = 1, = 1/2.

113

, ,
G,
. ,
1

X = x, X =x w = XX dx Xdx =
0

2
,
3

, G, ,
, 1/6 [ 1/2
2/3].
,
. ,
, , , G , . .
1

X = 1 x, X = x, w = x (1 x )dx (1 x )dx =
0

1
3

, G,
, . , G
, 9
1/2 2/3, . . 1/3 1/4, ,
G 1/2.

, . . G, , ,
, 2/3. 2/3,
(1/2)(1 + 1/3), (1/2)(1 + 2)
( 26), = 1/3.
G,
,
12.
,
, ,

.
46. , ,
G. H,
G, ,

G H m n . ,
,
, m' n' .
114

G 1 H
( 14)
X = Kxm(1 x)n, X = Kxm' (1 x)n',

K K , .

1

w = K Yx

1
m + m

(1 x )

n + n

dx Yx m (1 x )n dx.
0

K , K = Cmm+n
G H m' n' ,
K = 1.
,
- , ,
Y = 1
1

(1 x ) n dx =

n!
=
( m + 1)( m + 2)...(m + n )(m + n + 1)
m!n!/(m + n + 1)!.

m + m

(1 x ) n +n dx =

( m + m)!( n + n)!
(m + m + n + n + 1)!

, K = Cmm+n ,
w =

(m + n)!( m + m)!(n + n)!( m + n + 1)!


.
m! n! m ! n !( m + m + n + n + 1)!

,
m, n, m', n' , , 0! = 1.
n = n' = 0
w =

m +1
.
m + m + 1

115


G
H m . m' = 1, n' = 0, Y = 1
w =

m +1
,
m+n+2

m' = 0, n' =1
w =

n +1
.
m+n+2

,
, , G
(m + n) , ,
.
m > n m < n, , G ,
H, .
, ,
.
, , ,
, G,
, ,
G , Y 1.
45, G (m' + n')
, 1/2.
G ,
, H,
, G , H.
.
47. , , G

r,
x = r + z.

Y z,

. ,
Y ,
0
= r.
116


, r.
, r 45.
, , z = r
1 r, = 0 1.
w 46 m' = 1, n' = 0, dx = dz

w =

1 r

1 r

m +1
n
m
n
Yx (1 x ) dz Yx (1 x ) dz

, G
m , H n (m + n) . ,
Y , ,
z.
z, , ,
.
, r 1 r
.
, , z [?],

xm(1 x)n = rm(1 r)n + [mrm1(1 r) n nrm(1 r)n1]z +


[m(m 1)rm2(1 r)n 2mnrm1(1 r)n1 +
n(n 1)rm(1 r)n2]z2,

m (m + 1) xm+1(1 x)n.
xm(1 x)n xm+1(1 x)n
w. ,
1 r

1 r

Ydz = 1, Yzdz = 0,


1 r

Yz dz =
2

h2,

117

w = r + (

m
n

)h.
r 1 r

, w G m + n
, [m/r < n/(1 r)], ,
[m/r > n/(1 r)], r ,
G .
, r G, m n
, G H
r (1 r), m/r
n/(1 r) w r,
.
48. m = 1 n = 0, w = r + h/r ,
G, , .
r
, rw = r2 + h
. (1 r) r, (1 r)2 + h
.
r2 + h,

1 2r + 2r 2 + 2h

.
w 47 m = 0 n = 1,
w = r h/(1 r) , G,
, ,
r(1 r) h G H.
,
, ,
.
,
,

(1 2r)2 + 4h.
, r G,
, r.
, r 1/2,
,
.
.

118

, ,
1/2.
49.
,
, ,
.
g G, . .

.
, ,
, G
( 1), .
r G
g
, . ,
r g
,
, .
,
, , r g
, , .

r g < .
, b .

, .
, = + ,

b
a
=
,
=
, = .
+ a +b + a +b b
,
, ,
,


/ /( + ),
.
,
b,
.
/ /b ,
119


.
,
/ = /b , .
,
,
, .

, /(1 )
,
, ,
. ,

.
, ,
, b b
. (1 )
28
=

a (b + b)
b( a + a )
, 1 =
.
a (b + b) + b(a + a )
a (b + b) + b( a + a )




/(1 ),
,
=

a (b + b)
=
.
1
b(a + a )

+ = b + b, = /b.
D ( 10)
, , D.

a/b. ,
- ,
.
50. (1777, 18)
,
.

120


,
,
.
.

m , m/ .
, . .
, ,
m
m . ,
m/ ,
, ,
.
, m
, ,
, .
, , 1, 2, .
m

= a1 + 2a2 + 3a3 + , m = a1 + a2 +
= m/
, .
;
; , p, p(1 p), p(1 p)2,
m
a1, a2, , m
,
,
p = a1/m, p(1 p) = a2/m, p(1 p)2 = a3/m,

,
1 , , ,
p = a1 / m = 1 a2 / a1 = 1 a3 / a2

,
,
m/, m .
,

121

.
, m/,
a1, a2,
a1 = mp, a2 = mp(1 p), a3 = mp(1 p)2,

,
,
. m = 2048

a1 = 1061, a2 = 494, a3 = 232, a4 = 137, a5 = 56,
a6 = 29, a7 = 25, a8 = 8, a9 = 6.

a10, a11, , m
,
.
m a1, a2, , = 4040 = m/ =
0.50693. 13 ,

a1 = 1038, a2 = 512, a3 = 252, a4 = 124, a5 = 61,


a6 = 30, a7 = 15, a8 = 7, a9 = 4, a10 = 1,

a11, a12, .
, ,
.
;
, a7 3/5 ,
,
1/100.
,
p = a1/m = 0.51806, p = 1 a2/a1 = 0.53441,
p = 1 a3/a2 = 0.53033.

,
, = 0.52760, 0.02 m/
.
, , ,
.
,

122

, .

1/6 ,
,
.
51. , ,
, 20
,
.
q
F, g, h, k ,

p = g/k, q = h/k, g + h = k, p + q = 1.

m, n, ,

m = gk, n = hk, = m + n = (g + h)k,

q m n,

g, h k.
[1] ( + q) ,
pmqn.
, F m n ( 14), , .
. F ,
,
.
[2] ,
( + q)
,
. ,

.
[3] ( + q)
l
2l + 1 ,
q ,
.
, .

123

,
14 ,
( m l ),
F ( n m l ). 2l
,
.
,
l / = , p = p, q m = q,

, q.
, l/, ,

q F.
15.
( + q)

Lacroix (1816).
, . ,
. , , ,
, F
.
,

,
.
, ,
,
.
.
,
, ,
.
52.
, -
1, 2, , , p , (1 1), (1 2), ,
(1 ) F
q , p + q = 1. ,
, , ,
m n F ,
m n = m + n

124

p q , , p q
m/ n/.
[1]
, p q F ,
49 q, .
p q ,
, F
, ,
F
, .
,
.
[2] F,
,
1, 2, , ,
. i ,
- i .
,
,

,
.

, .

.
,
, m
, m
,
m/ = m/ .
, ,
.
, ,
-
1, 2, , .
1, 2, , . ,
,
(m/ m/ )
.

, ,
125

, ,
,
.
, 1, 2, ,
1/. 5
, i, i/,
10 1/ + 2/ + = .

, ,

, .
i i , i
= 1c1 + 2c2 + + c,

1 + 2 + + = 1,
-
. ,
.
1, 2, , ,
0 1, Ydx
, . ,
45,
1

= Yxdx, Ydx = 1.
0

(52.1, b)

53. F
.
, -
,
1, 2, , , -

. cij
, i, ,
, aj. cij i,
1 j, 1 , ,
j
126

ci1 + ci2 + + ci = 1,

i a1, a2, , a
.
j aj,

, ; , j
aj . aj
, ( 1)
F,
51,
j = 1c1j + 2c2j + + cj.
1, 2, ,
,
, , ,
.
[3] ,
, , ,
, ,
,
16.
s ,
,
s/ = a11 + a22 + + a.

, ,
, ,

. ,
j
1, 2, , .
, s .
, s
,
s/ s/ .
,
s/ = s/ .

127


;

l1 l2, ,
i ,
. Zidz , i
- z.
l2

Z dz = 1.
i

(53.1)

l1

z,
, Zdz;
,
1Z1 + 2Z2 + + Z = Z.
,
l

2
s
= Zzdz.

l1

Z z.
(53.1), 1, 2, [.
],
l2

Zdz = 1,
l1

.
54.
m/ = m/ , s/ = s/ ,


. ,
, ,
, ,
.
128

. ,
,
,
.
, ,
52 53, ,
.
m -

. m/
, ,
, ,
,

. ,
,
, , , .
,
m/ ,
. , ,
,
,
m/.
,
,
, , m/
, .
.

, Y = 1 = 1/2, ,

. ,
,
,
, Y = ax, (52.1b)
= 2, = 2/3. ,
,
, ,
.
,
, ,
.

129

,
m/ ,
.
, m/
,
.
,
, -
. , , , , ,
,
, ,
.
,
- ;
,
. ,
, [ ]
- .
55. ,
, ,
.
1, 2, , ;
cn -
n,
.
; ,
.
1, 2, ,
, .
1 b1, 2
b2 . . b1, b2,
1, 2,

1, 2, , ;


= (1/)(b1 + b2 + + b ).

,

130

, m ,
, , ,
= (1/v)(c1 + c2 + + cv),

,
m/ = , = , m = .

, m
1, 2, , .
,
m/.
1, 2, ,

10 .
, ,
, 49,
. , , ,
, .
m
1, 2, 1, 2, ,
.
. = 2 m = 1
1
2 .
:
1 = 2 = C1; 1 = 2 = C2; 1 = 2 = C3; 1 = C1 2 = C2;
1 = C1 2 = C3; 1 = C2 2 = C3; 1 = C2 2 = C1;
1 = C3 2 = C1; 1 = C3 2 = C2

, ,

2c1(1 c1); 2c2(1 c2); 2c3(1 c3).


,
c1(1 c2) + c2(1 c1); c1(1 c3) + c3(1 c1);
c2(1 c3) + c3(1 c2).

131

,

1, 2, 3
.

1/3(c1

+ c2 + c3)[1 1/3(c1 + c2 + c3)],

1/9
.
1, 2,
, n 1,
2, , .
n- c1 + c2 + ,
, . . . ,
, ,
,
49, m 1, 2,
.
, ,
,
, .
56. ,
1, 2,
i,
, i.
m . ,
ni , 49 ai = ni/m
.

. , m
(m ni), , ;
m2 (m2 ni2), ; 2ni(m ni)
m2 2ni(m ni), .
.
m ni
,
49, mai. ni/m ni/m
. -,
ai , ,
.

132

, ,
ai .

,

. , , n ,
, ,
, .
52 , =
n/, 1, 2,
.
n/ > 1/2 < 1/2 , , ,
,
, .
i i , , ni/ < 1/2,
n/ > 1/2 . ,
, ,
, , ,
. , n ,
n/ = n/,

(56.1)

i ni/m = ni/m. ,
ni/m , (56.1)
,
.
57.

17,
. ,

,
, .

,
. ,
,
1, 2,
, , .

, 56, .

133

, ,
,
. ,
, - i j


aiaj + (1 ai)(1 aj).

1, 2,
, ,
2.
s; , 10,
s = (1/2)[aiaj + (1 ai)(1 aj)],

i, j = 1 i, j = .

= 1/2(1 + k), ai = 1/2(1 + k + i), aj = 1/2(1 + k + j),


k, i, j, k + i, k + j
. n/
56, ,
,
i = 0, j = 0

1 ai = 1/2(1 k i), 1 aj = 1/2(1 k j).


s

ai = aj = 1/2(1 + k), (1 ai) = (1 aj) = 1/2(1 k)

s = 1/2(1 + k2),

134

. . k ,
1, 2,

, s
.
b , , 52, b = as,
.
,
i,

ai2 + (1 ai)2


s = (1/)[ai2 + (1 ai)2] = 1/2(1 + k2 + h2), h2 = (1/)i2.

s
h,
1, 2,

, s
.
b , b =as,
h, k .
58. ,
, 1, 2, ,
s
.
i
ai3 + (1 ai)3,


s =

1
1
1
[ ai3 + (1 ai3 )] = [1 + 3( k 2 + h 2 )] = (3s 1).

4
2

s
.
, b , b = s.

135

b/a b/a s s,

aa = 3ba 2ba,

,
a, a, b, b.
[s?] a1, a2,

, . .
. ,
, 6 ,

(
; . .)
(, , ,
. .),
,
a = 3c, a = 2c,

c = b b.
.
59.
,

i i.

. ,

1/15. 10 , 1817 1826 .,
1.0656,
0.005 .
(1830). 1817 1833
. 1.0619,
, 0.005.
;
,
a1, a2, ,
1/2. ,
, 17
,

136

. 16/31

,
, k 57 1/31.
,
,
, ,
, , .

1/2(1 + k2) 1/2 .

-.

h,
1/2(1 + k2 + h2)
. 58

.
60. 54, - ,

,
.


,
, ,
.
,
54 .
,
l

s 2
= Zzdz,
l1

, ,
.
, , , .
, . ,
,

137

. ,
, Zdz
z,
.
k
, z = l1 l2, . .,
53, ,
Z .
z = k + x, l1 = k + h1, l2 = k + h2

Z z = k + x.
l2

Zdz

h2

l1

Xdx =

h1

h2

1,

Xxdx = 0

h1

, ,
s
, s/ = k.
k , ,
s/ .
, . .
,
,
;
, , ,
18.
,
z = + u, l 1 = + g1 , l 2 = + g2 .

U Z z ( + u).
l2

Zdz
l1

g2

Udu

g1

g2

= 1, k = + Uudu.
g1

u z

.
u = g1 g2
Udu.
138

,
, , ,
, ,
g1 g2
, U

u.
g2

Uudu

= 0, k = .

g1

s/
.
, ,
,
,
, k s/,
, .
,
, .

.
,
, (Laplace 1812)
(1824; 1829).
61. ,
60, , 1, 2,

- . ,
,
, , ,
,

. , ,
, , , ,

[ ],
.

, z, Zdz
z , ,

139

, z,
,
. , ,
Zdz
z, Zdz
. . , ,
; , ,
Z = Z + Z +
, , Z
, .
,
, .
.
, , Z, Z,
. Z
, Zzdz
,
-
.
, , l1 = 0
l2 = Z , z, , Z.
,
, .
s, ,

s
= Zzdz.
0
, s/ ,
, ,
- 1, 2,
.
,
29 , ,
[ ],
. ,
,
,
.

140

,
s
. s/ ;
,
. ,
,
43 .
,
,
. ,
, , .
m.
54 m/ ,
, m . ,
, , m/
.

Zzdz
0

z ,
.

h1, h2, z, H1,
H2, Z, , ,
H1h1, H2h2,
.

= H1 h 1 + H2 h 2 +
Hn hn,
( 23)
[ ]
. , ,
,
.
62. ,

,

141

.
.
,

.

, ,
z ,
l2

Zzdz
l1

, ,
,
. s/
; s ,
.
, s/ ,
. . ,
.
,
, ( ,
) .

, .
,
- ,
.
,

.
63.
,
,
27.
, , , 27,
, , ,
. , ,
, ,
,
. ,

142


,
.
,
,
.
,
,
. , ,
. ,

,

.
(1748),
, ,
.
,
. -
, , , ,
.


19.
.
,

, , ,
.
,
. ,
, ,
, .
,
, ,
,
.
, ,
.
, , ,
,
,

143

.
,
. ,
, ,
,
.

, ,
,
.
,
, .
,


,
.
, ,


.

,
. ,

, ,
, , ,
, 11/12 ( 46).
11 10 , 10
, ,

.

,
,
,
20.
,
, ,


.

144

, ,
- , ,
.
, ,
,
, 1/2,
.
,
,

. , ,
- ,


,
.
64. , ,
,
, ,
, .
,
,
. ,
n ,
w;
.

,
, ,
. , ,
1, 2, , n, ,

( 27), , 1 , 2
, , n . ri
i, ,
, , ,

r1r2 rn = .

145


n 1, 2,
. 1 ,
, , , (1 )
, . .
.
, . . ,

. , 28

w =

p
,
p + (1 p )

1 w =

(1 p )
.
p + (1 p )

, n
, .

; , ; . .

p =

p
(1 p ) r1
, 1 p =
,
p + (1 p ) r1
p + (1 p ) r1

p =

p
(1 p)r2
, 1 p =
,...
p + (1 p)r2
p + (1 p)r2

(1 ) (1 ),
(1 ) (1 ) . .,
w (1 w)
n . , w

n . n,

, , w
, n .

146


1, 2, , n, 1, 2, , n,
. ,
r1, r2, , rn r1, r2, , rn,
ri i , ri
i.
r1r2 rn = .

,
n (1 w)
, w
w = w + (1 w).

w (1 w) ,

w =

p + (1 p )
.
p + (1 p )

w w ,
,
,

, ,
. , , , , , ,
1/100 000. ,
, ,
, , r1, r2,
1/10 , , ,
10 .
p = 0.00001, < 0.00001 p, w >

1
.
1 + 0.00001(1 p )


, 1/100 000,
,
. n, w ,

147

n ,
, ,
.
65.
, . .
- ,
,
, .
,
,


, .
, ,
, ,
,
.
,
, ,
, ,
,
, , -
. ,
,

( 27) ,
, .
,
,
( 52)
,
. ,
,
,
m ,
, ,
,
, m ,
.
,
.
, ( 50)21,

148

,
, .
?
, ,
. ,
, ,
,
, ,
, .
,
(Laplace 1814, . 133), -
,

.
,
,

.
,
, ,
.
,
m m/ 1/2,
, ,
, .
,
, , , m/.
, ,

. ,

, , ,
. ,
,
. , ,
- ,
. ,
,
.
.
, .
,

149


m/.
,
.

1. . . 4 . 1.
2. , , , ,
.
3. ?
,

( 1983).
(Lamarck 1815, . 133). , ,
,
.
4. Fienberg (1971) , , ,
.
5. . . 18.
6. 17
(1830) , . .
7. . . 3 .
8. , . . 9 . 1.
9. , XIX , , ,
.
.
10. . (1823, 18 19):
.
11. ( . 4) .
12.
1841 .:
la probabilit de similitude dans deux preuves conscutives, est la mme que sil
y avait, entre les chances de G et de lvnement contraire, une diffrence 1/3, sans
que lon connt la chance la plus favorable.
so ist die Wahrscheinlichkeit der bereinstimmung zwei auf einander folgenden
Versuche dieselbe, als wenn zwischen der Wahrscheinlichkeit der Ereignisse G und
der des entgegengesetzten Ereignisses eine Differenz 1/3 stattfinde, ohne da man
der gnstigste Wert kennt.
13. . 10 . 1 ,
.
14. , .
15. , .
, ,
,
.
16. .
17. ,
.

150

18. .
,
( )
( 2007).
. , ,
.
19. (1739/1969, Bk. 1, pt. 3, 11, p. 124):
, , .
.
20. ( ),
.
21. .

. . (1823, .), . . .
. ., . 1. ., 1957, . 17 57.
. . (1983), .
. ., 1986,
. 467 471.
Buffon G. L. L. (1777), Essai darithmtique morale. Oeuvr. Phil. Paris, 1954,
pp. 456 488.
Fienberg S. E. (1971), Randomisation and social affairs: the 1970 draft lottery.
Science, vol. 171, pp. 255 261.
Hume D. (1739), Treatise on Human Nature. Baltimore, 1969. [
. (. 1 2. ., 1965).]
--- (1748), An Enquiry concerning Human Understanding.
1739 1740 .
.
Lacroix C.-F. (1816), Trait lmentaire du calcul des probabilits. Paris, 1822,
1833, 1864.
Lamarck J. B. (1815), Histoire naturelle des animaux sans vertbres, t. 1. Paris.
Poisson S.-D. (1824 1829), Sur la probabilit des rsultats moyens des
observations. Conn. des Temps pour 1827, pp. 273 302; pour 1832, pp. 3 22.
--- (1830), Sur la proportion des naissances des filles et des garons. Mm. Acad.
Sci. Paris, t. 9, pp. 239 308.
Sheynin O. (2007), The true value of a measured constant and the theory of
errors. Hist. Scientiarum, vol. 17, pp. 38 48.

151

3. ,

/,
1. 70, . 179 . .
/2,
/2, . .
2. 70, . 181 .
0 , .
3. 72, . 188 , a b
,
. , p/q
a/b, a/b.
4. 74, . 191 , (10).
: , ,
(1 + ), (1 + 2).
5. 76, . 195 .
= 1/2.
6. 79, . 202 , n/.

n , , (6).
7. 86, . 221 . 2 87
, .
8. 88, . 225 , v1.
v 1/,
v/.
9. 90, . 233 , Il
en rsultera.
(a g, b g) (a g, b h).
10. 90, . 234 .
a b a + n b + m,
a + m b + n.
11. 91, . 234 . a, b, a m,
a n a, b, a m, b n.
.
66.
,

, ,
[]. ,
152

,
[].
,
[].



. ,
, ,
,

. []
67. n!.1
,

x n dx = n !.

(67.1)

= 0 .

[].
H, h . h = n, H = ehhn.
exxn = Hexp( t2), t ,
. t = , 0,
= 0, h, . [] x = h + x, []
x = ht + ht2 +

[]

1+

1 d 2 ln H 2
d 2 ln H
1 d 3 ln H 2

h
0,
h
h = 0,... (67.2)
=
+
2 dh 2
dh 2
6 dh 3

[]
n ! = n n e n 2 n (1 +

1
1
+
+ ...) .
12n 288n 2

(67.3)

68. (67.3) , ,
n. [ , ],
, ,
2.
, ,
153

[],
, n
.
[ n = 10 .]
,
, ,
,

. .
69. , F -
, .
q ,
U ,
m n . ( 14)

U = Cm p m q n , m + n = , p + q = 1.

(69.1)

, m n ,
U .
,
, []
m

p q
U =
m n

.
2mn

(69.2)

, , ,
U ,

m/n p/q. , , m n , q
,
0 1, U
= m/
q = n/. , []
,
,
.
, p = q = 1/2
m = n = /2, (69.2)

U = 2 / .
154

(69.3)

, .
= 100, U = 0.07979, 1 U = 0.92021.
92 , 100
F
.
,
U (1 1/4). []
70. , m/n /q,
,

m/n p/q
, .
p = q = 1/2 g ,
, , .
(69.2)

m=

g
[1 +
], n = [1
],
2
2

(70.1)

g2
U = 1

/2

g
1

g /2

g
1 +

g /2

2
.
( g 2 )

g ,
( 8) U

exp (g/22), exp ( g/22), exp ( g/22).
g2 = ,

U = 2/ exp( g 2 /2)
U
. = 200 g = 1/2
F, ,
105 95 ,
100 e1/4: 1 3:4.
155

(69.2) , , m n ;
m/n p/q,
U
. ,
(m/n p/q) U
(69.2).
, , ,
(1823, J.
Ecole Polyt., No. 19, p. 490),

/2

cos

x cos[(m n ) x ]dx =

1 m
C .
2

m n , (69.1)
p = q = 1/2, ,

2
U =

/2

cos

x cos[( m n ) x ]dx.


,
cos x , ,
cos[(m n)x], . ,
, , 0
.
cos x = 1 x 2 /2, cos x = exp( x 2 /2),

U =

2
exp( x 2 /2) cos[( m n ) x ]dx.
0


, ,
, ,

2
exp(x /2) cos[(m n) x ]dx =
0

156

(m n)2
exp(
),
2
2

U =

2
(m n )2
exp(
).

, [ (70.1)]
m n = g.
U (69.2) ,
g . g
U
. , ,
g = /2, m n = /2,

U = 2/ e /8 .
(69.2) ,

U = (1 1/4) /2 (1 1/2)/4 (1 + 1/2) /4 8/3 ,


,

U = (9/8) /2 8/3.
U ,
. ,
, F,
, 3/4 /4 .
U
2 64

3 81

/4

= 100
800.
71. , , F ,
. , = m + n
m n .
U, 1 = m1 + n1
m1 n1 . 46
157

U = Cm11

( m + m1 )!( n + n1 )!( + 1)!


.
m ! n !( + 1 + 1)!

[ , ]
m1 m
n

) (1 + 1 ) n (1 + 1 )
m
n

m + m1 m1 n + n1 n1
(
) (
) ,
+ 1
+ 1

U = Cm11 K (1 +

K=

+1
(m + m1 )(n + n1 )( + 1)
.
+ 1 + 1
mn( + 1 + 1)

(71.1)

(71.2)

m1 n1 m n,
K , ,
[]

U = Cm11 ( m /)m1 (n /) n1 .
(69.1) ,
, F m1 n1
m1 + n1 , q, ,
p = m/ q = n/. m1 = 1 n1 = 0
Cm11 = 1 U= m/, , ,
m ,
,
49. m1 n1 m n,
.
h ,
m1 = mh, n1 = nh, 1 = h. K 1/ 1 + h ,
= m + n (71.1)
U =

158

1
Cm1 (m /)m1 (n /)n1 .
1+ h 1

p = m/ q = n/, m n m1 n1,
U1 (69.1),

U =

1
U1.
1+ h

, U , U1, h
, . ,
q F
m/ n/,
, . , ,
,
, .
, F,
, , ,
, ,
3. , , ,
,
, 0.07979, . 69,
100 50
. , ,
, , 100
, h = 1
0.07979/2 = 0.05658.
72. F
, ,
, b .
, V , -
m n .
18, a b
, a + b = c, 71
V = Cca

a ! b !!
.
m!n!c!

a, b, m, n ,
. ,
= m + n = a + b, ,

159

a b m
V =C
c c
a
c

ab
.
mnc

m = a, n = b, = , Cca = 1 ,
, ,
, .
m/n = a/b, a/c = m/ b/ = n/, a/c = p b/c =
q,

V = Cca paqb c /.
(69.1) V
, ,
a/c b/c
, a b c ,

V = V c /.

(72.1)

, V/V = / c ,
,
. , a = p(c ), b = q(c ),
a b p/q = a/b.
p = q = 1/2, a = b = c/2, ( 69) V = 2/c ,
c = c , V = 2c /[(c )]. = /2,

V = 4/ = V 2. ,
,
,
2 ,
.
73. q
F , = m + n
m , F n .
(p + q) ,
q. ,
,
m n
67. ,
. ,
160

G , F n
.
(n + 1) .
1) m .
m = n , F
n . pm.
2) (m + 1) m F
, ,
. , (n 1)
F (n 1)
n . pmq,
F ,
mpmq.
3) (m + 2) m F
, ,
, ,
. ,
, pmq2,
m(m + 1)pmq2/2.
, , (n + 1)- ,
F ,
.

m(m + 1)...(m + n 1) m n
p q .
n!
(n + 1)

G,
( 10):
m( m + 1) 2
q + ...
2!
m( m + 1)...(m + n 1) n
+
q ].
n!
P = p m [1 + mq +

(73.1)

4 (p + q) ,
,
67
, m n.
161

74. [

Xdx, X =

xn
,
(1 + x ) +1

(n + 1) , ]

Xdx

P =

Xdx

m(m + 1) 2
[1
+
m
+
+ ...
(1 + ) m
1+
2!
(1 + ) 2

m( m + 1)...(m + n 1) n
].
n!
(1 + )n

(74.1)

. = q/p
, p + q = 1,
(73.1).
n = 0
m = , ,
. . . = . ,
n=0

1
1
Xdx = (1+) = p ,

Xdx = , P = p .

(74.2)

n = 1 m = 1
, F ,
= 1 qm, . ,

x = 1/y, dx = dy/y2, = 1/.


n = 1

dy
1
1
Xdx = 0 (1 + y ) +1 = [1 (1 + ) ],

162

dy

Xdx = (1 + y )
0

+1

= 1/ = p/q 1/(1 + ) = q (74.1)


.
75. 67 (74.2).
, ,
, h, H.
dX/dx = 0, h,
n(1 + h) ( + 1)h = 0

h=

n
n n ( m + 1)m +1
,H=
.
m +1
( + 1) +1

(75.1)

(67.2)

H=

hn
(1 + h ) +1

H h
,
h =

2( + 1)n
2( + 1 + n )
, h =
,...
3
(m + 1)
3(m + 1) 2

m, n ,
, h, h,
, , h, 1/ ,
, h, 1/ , 1/( ) . .,

Xdx = H
0

( h +

1 3
1 3 5 v
h +
h + ...).
2
4

(75.2)

76. (74.1)
, > h < h, h, ,
, .
t 67
> h
163

< h. , = , t
. [ = q/p;
H , ] = k,
k 2 = n ln

n
m +1
+ (m + 1) ln
.
q( + 1)
p ( + 1)

(76.1)

k , = k
q/p > h = k q/p < h. ,
67

Xdx = H exp( t

dx
dt.
dt

H exp( t 2 )
k
k

exp( t

dx
dx
dt = H exp( t 2 )
dt
dt
dt

dx
dt
dt

(76.2)

, 67,
dx/dt = h +2ht + 3ht2 +
[] 5

exp( t

2i

)t dt = Ki ,

exp( t

)t 2i +1dt = K i .

(76.2)
(75.2), q/p > h, . (75.1),

Xdx = H (hK

+ 3hK1 + 5h v K 2 + ...) +

H (2hK 0 + 4h IV K1 + 6h VI K 2 +...) = I + II,

Xdx = Xdx I + II q /p < h.


164

(76.3, b)

, ,
, (75.2). k 0,
Ki ,
Ki
Ki = (1/2) exp( k2)(k2i +ik2i2 + i(i 1)k2i4 + + i!k2 + i!).
= h (76.3, b) .

q
n
n
m +1
=
, q=
, p=
p m +1
+1
+1
k, (76.1), .
K0 =

i!
, Ki = 1 3 5 ... (2i 1) i +1 , K i =
2
2
2

(75.2) (76.3, b)

Xdx =

H
1 3
1 3 5 v
h +
h + ...) +
( h +
2
2
4
H ( h + 1 2h IV + 1 2 3h VI + ...).

77. , m, n ,

h, hIV . . h
h,

h
( + 1 + n ) 2
=
h 3 n( m + 1)(+1)
(74.1) (75.2) (76.3)
q/p > h q/p < h

P=

1
( + n ) 2
exp( t 2 )dt +
exp( k 2 ),

k
3 mn

(77.1)
165

P = 1

1
( + n) 2
exp( t 2 )dt +
exp( k 2 ). (77.1b)

k
3 mn

k > 0 k2 (76.1).

m + 1 m + 1
.
m = n = /2 q > p, h = /( + 2), q/p > h
(77.1). (76.1),

1
2
P=
exp( t 2 )dt +
exp( k 2 ),

+2
+2
k 2 = ln
+
ln
.
2 2 q( + 1)
2
2 p ( + 1)

(77.2)

,
F
, . U
, ,
U , F , .
p = q = 1/2 , P U
, 2P U .

2
2
U=
exp( t 2 )dt 1 + 2
exp( k 2 ).

k
. [
]
k2 =

1
1
+
+ ...
4 4( + 2)

1/,
k = 1/ 2 , exp(k2) = 1,

exp(t
k

166

)dt = exp( t )dt exp( t 2 )dt =


2

1
2

U = 2/ , (69.3),
(69.2) m = n p = q.
, m = ( 1)/2, , , q > p,
q/p > h. (77.2) (76.1)
,
k2 =

1
1
+3
+3
ln
+
ln
.
2
2 q( + 1)
2
2 p( + 1)

,
;
F . p = q = 1/2
1/2, .
[ k2, ]
k 2 = 1 / ( 1) + 1 / ( + 3) + ...
, , 1/,

k=

2
, exp( k 2 ) = 1,

exp( t

)dt =

1/2.
78. n ( + 1)q
,
. p + q = 1 m + n = ,
n = ( + 1)q , m + 1 = ( + 1)p + .
h
h=

( + 1) q
q
<
> 0.
( + 1) p +
p


(76.1),

167

k2 =

2
( p q)
+ ...],
[1 +
2( + 1) pq
3( + 1) pq

, r > 0

= r 2( + 1) pq , k = r[1 +

( p q) r
+ ...],
3 2( + 1) pq

q,
,
r / + 1 /( + 1). ,
k
k = r + , =

( p q)r 2
.
3 2( + 1) pq

(78.1)

n = ( + 1) q r 2( + 1) pq ,
(77.1)
k = r m n q,

P=

exp( t

)dt +

r +

(1 + q) 2
exp( r 2 ).
3 pq

(78.2)

[] < 0, h > q/p. r


= r 2( + 1) pq ,

n = ( + 1) q + r 2( + 1) pq .
k, (76.1),
:
168

k = r , =

( p q )r 2
.
3 2( + 1) pq

(77.1b), ,

P = 1

exp( t 2 )dt +

(1 + q) 2
exp( r 2 ).
3 pq

(78.2b)

,
R = 1

2
exp( t )dt

r +

1
2
exp( t )dt +
r

(1 + q) 2
[exp( r2 ) exp( r 2 )]
3 pq

(78.3)

,
F
n , ,
[ :]

.
79. N ,
q f = q N. u
, u 2( + 1) pq ,
N.

q + f r 2( + 1) pq = u 2( + 1) pq 1,
q + f + r 2( + 1) pq = u 2( + 1) pq .
n, R,

n = N u 2( + 1) pq 1, n = N + u 2( + 1) pq
(78.3) , n
,
. , ,
169

N u 2pq , N (
+ 1), .

r+=u++

1
, r = u ,
2( + 1) pq

, 1/. v
, ,

exp( t 2 )dt = exp( t 2 )dt v exp( u 2 ).

u+v

(78.3)
r = r ,
,

2
1
R = 1
exp( t 2 )dt +
exp( u 2 ),

u
2pq

(79.1)

+ 1.
, n
, n
. r + ,
(79.1), . ,
,
n .
r , (79.1)
. , ,
n
. ,

n = N + u 2pq ,
u ,
.
170

1/,
n
2 pq m
2 pq
= q+u
,
= pu

[ ] (69.2)
exp( u 2 )
U=
,
2pq
.
(78.2) , n
q r 2pq , + 1.
, U u = r
, Q = P U , n
. ,
u = r , (78.2b),
Q = P U , n
q + r 2pq .

Q=

Q = 1

exp( t 2 )dt +

r+

q p
exp( r 2 ),
3 2pq

exp( t 2 )dt +

(79.2)

q p
exp( r2 ). (79.2b)
3 2pq

, r r ,
n,
Q Q,
q. ,
, r
r, + 1 , [, 78,]
=

( p q) r 2
( p q) r 2
, =
.
3 2pq
3 2pq

80. n, (79.1),
, U,
171

f
2 pq
m

n/, R.
f/, R, (79.1),
, n/ q
u 2 pq /.
m/ p, ,
(m + n)/ p q = 0.
u , R
.
u.
, , u, 4 5,

exp( t

)dt , 1 R, .

u ,
m/ p , ,
,
. m/

. ,
R m/ p .
,
l, . .,
u , ,
R .
, R , m/ p
l,
. ( 49).
81. ( 78)
q. q ,
. . F .
n/ F
. n m
(73.1), q = w, q = w/.
n/,
p m (1 + w +
172

w 2 w3
wn
+
+ ... + ).
2! 3!
n!

w
w
p = 1 , p m = 1

w
1 .


ew, .
(73.1)
P = (1 + w +

w 2 w3
wn
+
+ ... + )e w
2! 3!
n!

, ,
w/, n
.
n = 0 ew. ,
, ,
, , ,
1 ew, ,
8. n ,
.
,

wn +1e w
w
w2
[1 +
+
+ ...].
P = 1
(n + 1)!
n + 2 ( n + 2)(n + 3)
w = 1 n = 10, 1
1/108. , ,
1/
10 .
82. (79.1) , ,
. Kramp (1798)
u = 0 u = 3,

exp(t

)dt = 0.00001957729...

u > 3 [

173

u
2
exp(t )dt = u
0

u3
u5
u7
+

+ ...
1 3 1 2 5 1 2 3 7

, u
]. u,
R = 1/2,

exp( u 2 )

.
4
2 2pq
u =
. ,
1/,

u=a

1
.
2 2pq

, 0.4765.
, m/ p

2 pq 1
0.4765

. - u
R, m/ p n/ q
, 2u 2 pq /. , p = q = 1/2,
1/2 (m n)/

0.6739 1
].

, F ,
,
, 0.6739 1.
, 106,
. ,
- 674 .
174

,
, .
q , R,
, (p q)
2u 2pq , . ,
,
,
,
,
p q.
83. , q ,

m/ n/ . ,
, ,

q. ,
R, (79.1),
m/ u 2 pq /. R
,
m/ , q n/ .
m/ n/ q
(79.1), ,

R = 1

exp( t 2 )dt +
exp( u 2 )

2mn
u

(83.1)

,
m
u 2mn

m, n , , ,
m/ n/ q
,
F, , m n = m + n
, . (79.1)
. ,
175

, m/ n/ , , q
,

R = 1
exp( t 2 )dt +
exp( u 2 )

u
2mn

(83.2)

, n
n u
m
2mn .

(83.3)

n/ ,
. m/
n/ q, , ,
, 71, .
q
,
.
84. , , F
m n = m + n
, q
. ,
,
m/ n/,
.
,
, -
q . ,
, m/ n/,
, .
Q, (79.2),
, n < q r 2pq ,
F, n ,
q > n / + r 2 pq / = n / + ( r /) 2mn / , q
m/ n/. ,
r dr r
, Q dQ/dr
,

176

q>

n r
+

2mn
2mn dr

dQ/dr ,

q = n / + ( r /) 2mn /
r,
, Q. ,
(79.2b) Q ,
q> n/ ( r /) 2mn /. r + dr r,
Q + (dQ/dr)dr ,
q>

n r 2mn
2mn dr

, (dQ/dr)dr , q
, ,

q = n / ( r/) 2mn / .
r ,
.
[ dQ/dr dQ/dr
1/ ,
r r. ] v
,
[ ]
V=

1
2(m n )v 2
exp( v 2 )
exp( v 2 ) ,

3 2mn

(84.1)

Vdv ,

q = n /+( v /) 2mn / .

177

p = m / (v /) 2mn / .

(84.2)

V, ,
v. , v
, V
exp ( v2).
v q, m/ n/,
Vdv, V v,
V ,
, V ,
.
, , F,
,
F. , q. ,
q,
.
q = 0 q = 1
= 1 q = 0 . , ,
,
q m/ n/. ,
q,
= Vdv ,

(84.3)


v, .

(1830, 2).
85. (84.1) (84.3)
, ,
= m + n F m n ,
m/n m/n
. ,
,
m = mh , n = nh + , = h,

178

h ,
, .
(69.2)

U = /2mn
,
m

p q
= U

m n

, U ,
, m/ n/
F = 0. , ,

m m

n n

=
,
= +
,

v 2mn

= v1 ,

q 84
p = (m/) v1, q = (n/) +v1.
,
m

v v
= U 1 1 1 + 1 .
m
n

1/ 1/, []
= U exp(

3v12
).
2mn

(85.1)

179


(84.1), [ ] (84.3)

1
3v12
U exp( v 2
)dv .
2mn

v,
. ,
dv
v, , ,
v ,
, . mh
nh m n v1,
v2 +

3v12
2v h 2 2
= v 2 (1 + h )
+
2mn
2mn 2mn

v 1+ h

h
dx
.
= x, dv =
2mn(1 + h )
1+ h

1
22
U exp[
]
2mn(1 + h )
1+ h

(85.2)

= 0. U
, 71.
86. (84.1) (84.3)
, ,
n/ n/ /,
85.
q F,
, F
n , n = (n /) + , m ,
(m/) , . (85.1).
180


(77.1) , m, n , m, n.
1/
1/, m n

n
n
2
= [1 +
].
m + 1 m
mn
q 85

q n
2
= [1 + v
].
p m
mn
v

v<

2
q
n
q
n
, <
>
p m + 1
p m + 1
2 mn

.
, (77.1b) (77.1) ,
,

= 1

1
2( + n)
exp( t 2 )dt +
exp( k 2 ) ,

k
3 2mn

1
2( + n)
=
exp( t 2 )dt +
exp( k 2 ) .

k
3 2 mn
k > 0, (76.1)
m, n, m, n, .
m n, q.
q=

n
m + 1
v, p =
+ v ,
+ 1
+ 1

,
181


v 2mn
n

= v .
( + 1)


v 1/. [
]
k2 =

2(m n)k
3v2 ( m n) 4v3
, k = k [1
],

2 2
2mn
3m n
3 2mn

k =

v mn

.
2mn mn

(86.1)

, v, k
, . k > 0 < 0
.
[ , , ,
, :] (84.1) (84.3),
:

1
1
exp( v 2 )dv exp( t 2 v 2 )dtdv +

2n
2( m n )
exp( k 2 v 2 )dv
[ exp( v 2 )v 3dv

2mn
3 2mn

exp(t

v 2 )v 3dtdv ],

(86.2)

1
exp( t 2 v 2 )dtdv +

2( m n )
3 2mn

2n
exp( k 2 v 2 )dv

2mn

exp( t

v 2 )v 3dtdv ].

(86.2b)

[ , , ,
v ]

mn

= ,
= , t = v, dt = d.
2mn
mn
182

> 0 .
(86.2, b) > 0 < 0
k = v, t = m v
.

= 1

1
exp[2 + 2v (1 + 2 )v 2 ]ddv +

2n
exp[ 2 + 2v (1 + 2 )v 2 ]dv +

2 m n
2( m n )
3 2mn

exp[

+ 2v (1 + 2 )v 2 ]v 3ddv,

1
= exp[2 2v (1 + 2 )v 2 ]ddv +

2n
exp[ 2 2v (1 + 2 )v 2 ]dv

2 mn
2( m n )
3 2mn

exp[

2v (1 + 2 )v 2 ]v 3ddv.

[] ,
n

n
2mn
+
,


. ,
n

n
2mn


.
183

87. , v
,
, .
[ ]

2
= 1
exp( t 2 )dt ,

u
u = / 1 + 2 . , ,
, n
n u 2( 3mn + 3mn )
m

(87.1)

. ,
,
, n
, . (85.2),
(87.1)6.
w , n
, - ,

2
exp( t 2 )dt +
w = 1
u

u 2 ( 3mn + 3mn )
exp[
].
2mn(+)
2mn( + )

(87.2)

w R (83.2) ,

.
,
(87.1) (83.3) n,
w R, , w,
, .
w ,
n m
, n/ m/.

184

n u
m
2mn (1 + h ),

h = /. (83.3)
, u 1 + h
, , u
1/ 1 + h , R. h
, (83.2) (87.2)
, n.

(1830).
(87.2) ,
(n/ n/)
u 2( 3mn + 3mn )
m

(87.3)


(m/ m/). u ,
w ( 80)7, ,
,
,
,
F ,
.
, u ,
,
= ,
.
= m m n n.
u [ (87.3)] 2 mn / . ,
, ,
m = m/ n = n/
2mn / , . . 2 .
88. F
q m n
. 1 F1
1 q1 m1 n1
1 . m/ m1/ 1,
185

n/ n1/ 1, ,
, p p1 q q1.

, ,
,
.
, ,
p p1 q q1,
(m/ m1/ 1) (n/ n1/ 1),
.
(84.2), ,
m/, v
, .

p1 = m1 /1 (v1 /1 ) 2m1n1 /1
, v1,
, 1

(m1/ 1 m/) = ,
, .

p1 p = z = +

v1 = ( z )1

2mn v1

2m1n1
,
1

1
v 1mn
+ 1
.
2m1n1
m1n1

,
, 1 + , z
, .
1 Vdv
V1dv1, V (84.1), V1
, m, n v 1, m1, n1 v1.
VdvV1dv1,

186

= VV1dvdv1.

(84.1),
=

1
exp( v 2 v12 )dvdv1.

v1
z, dv1/dz ,
v1. v1,
, , z ,
dv1,
dv1 = (1 1 / 2m1n1 )dz .
[ ]

1
1
exp( t 2 )dt , = 1
exp( t 2 )dt

u
u

(88.1, b)

> 0 < 0.

( )1 1
2( 3m1n1 + 13mn )

= u,

(88.2)

u ,
> 0 < 0.
,
(84.1) ,
p1 p ,
p1 p > , . = u = 0,
1/2.
(88.2)
, p1 .
, []
(88.2)
187

= , m/ = w, = (m1/ 1) w.
, w + w, , m, n
1, m1, n1.
u = (w

m
)
.
2mn

(88.3)


w m/ (88.1, b) ,
, m
= m + n ,
w.
89. ,
( 50).
F
. , m = 2048, n = 1992,
= 4040 (m n
). (83.1)
u = 2,

2
exp( t 2 )dt = 0.00468, R = 0.99555.

u
0.50693 0.02225 ,
. ,
0.48468 0.52918
0.99555. ,
1/2,
, m n (88.3) w = 1/2. ,
, (88.1b),
u = 0.62298, = 0.81043, 1 = 0.18957.
,
, 1/2.

2048 1992.
1061 , 987 ; ,
, 987 1005 .
(87.2),
188

,
, .
,

m/ = m/ = 0.50693, n/ = n/ = 0.49307.
, m/ n/,
, ,
. ,
, m n
1/. , 4040.
= 2048; u = 2 (. )
w = 0.99558 , n, . .
, 1001 79.
. = 1992 w,
u = 2, 0.99560, . . , n
982 77,
. []
, ,
,
,
.
, (88.2)
= 1992, m = 987, n = 1005;
1 = 2048, m1 = 1061, n1 = 987.
, = m1/ 1 m/ = 0.02257,

u = 44.956 ( 0.02257).
, , = 0.02,
(88.1b),
u = 0.11553, = 0.56589, 1 = 0.43411
4 ,
1/50.
= 0.025
(88.1):
189

u = 0.10925, = 0.43861, 1 = 0.56139


,
1/40.
90. ,
.
, 8. c = a + b
, a b . l
, = m + n
. ,
m n
, 9
l = 0.
l + ;
i l + ,
; i , m
n ; i1
, m n . m
n i/i,
i1/i. i i1
, l,
,
. i/i
i1/i, , , . . .
.
a b ,
m n m + n
f(a, b, m, n). , g h
g + h f(a, b, g, h).
a g b h, m
n = m + n
f(a g, b h, m, n).
m
n g h 10.
, l + 1 ,
g h
l, m
n - l .
, l
f(a, b, m, n), . . ,
190

f(a, b, m, n) = f(a, b, g, h) f(a g, b h, m, n),


g = 0 h = l g = l h = 0.
, 18
f (a , b, m, n ) =

( m, n ) ( a m, b n )
, ( a , b) = Caa+ b ,
(a , b)

f (a , b, g , h ) f (a g , b h, m, n ) = [] =
(m, n )
( g , h )( a g m, b h n ).
( a , b)
,
(m, n)/(a, b) f(a, b, m, n)

( a m, b n ) = ( g , h ) ( a g m, b h n ),
a b , , ,
a + m b + n.

( a, b) = ( g , h ) ( a g , b h ).
xayb (x + y)c,
, xayb,
(x + y)l (x + y)cl, . .
, . ,
.
91. a, b, a m, a n .
(m, n), (a m, b n), (a, b), f(a, b, m, n)
,

f(a, b, m, n), [
]
f (a , b, m, n ) = H exp( t 2 )[1
H=

4t 3 ( a b)(c 2)
], (91.1)
3 2(c )abc

ab( c )
2cmn (a m)(b n )
191

m n ,
a t 2(c )abc

,
c
c2
b t 2( c )abc
+
.
n=
c
c2

m =

(91.2)
(91.2b)

n m
. i
n m = 2i 2i 1, t
c2
t = 2i + , =
,
2 2(c )abc
(a b)c
(a b)c
=
, =

2 2( c )abc
2 2( c )abc
.
t (91.1)
,
2i
2i 1. i = 1, 2, 3, , exp( t2)
, , , i = ,
,

.
s,
4t 3 (a b)( c 2)
s = H exp( t )[1
],
3 2( c )abc
2

t + 2 ,
, 2.
,
,
.
[ , ]

192

s = 1

1
exp( t 2 )dt exp( 2 ),

(91.3)

1
exp( t 2 )dt exp( 2 )
s=

(91.3b)

< 0 > 0 v,
,
=

( a b)( c 2)(7 + 4 2 ) + 3c 2
.
6 2(c )abc

, m = n = /2,
,
=

c 2 exp( 2 )
.
2( c )abc

(91.4)

92. , ,
, .
c = ++ +
, , , ,
, s, s, s,
, , (91.3, b)
,
b , , a, ,
, < 0 > 0. 90
, , , , ,
s, s, s,
, , , ;
, .
s, s, s, r11.
j
. j
,
52, , s, s,
s, r. ,
(79.1) , r, 1 r , q, p,
193

2
1
R = 1
exp( t 2 )dt +
exp( u 2 )

u
2r (1 r )
, j r m u 2r (1 r )
- . u
.
.
,
. .
; a
, b = a .
,
.
R, , j ,
,
, , , , .
j ,
R .
,
, ,
. ,
,
.
93. ,
, 459,
200 00012 ,
, , , :
= 459, = 435, c = = 199 665.
a = 94 835 b = 104 830, . .
.
v = .
91,

v = 0.77396,

1
exp( t 2 )dt = 0.13684,

(91.3) s = 0.85426, 1 s = 0.14574.


194


21/25, ,
,
4/25 . s
1 s r 1 r R 92 = 459 u =
2, , R = 0.99682 ,
, ,
392 m 21, 67 21 .
,
.
, b a
1/20 . ,
= 459, = 436, c = = 200 124.
a = 95 064, b = 105 060. - v = ,
91,

v = 0.74006,

1
exp( t 2 )dt = 0.14764,

s = 0.84279, 1 s = 0.15721.
, m = n. (91.4)
= 0.022178. /2 s,
s = 0.85388, ,
.

, ,
1/3 ,
.
/3 = 153, = 654, /3 = 100 062,

2/3 = 306, = 327, 2/3 = 100 062.
, , a = 95 062, b = 105 062,
c = 200 124, ,
, 1/20 .
,
195

s = 0.89429, = 0.01376, s + /2 = 0.90117; s = 0.81981,



r = (0.90117 + 0.81981)/2 = 0.86049.
,
. b a
,

. , ,
,
, . , a = 89 855, b = 109
830, b a /10, . .
, .
s = 0.98176, 1 s = 0.01824

, 1/6013. s
,

n, 81. ,
w = (1 s) = 8.3713, n = 15, P = 0.98713, 1 P = 0.01287.
30 000, .
. 3/20 , 1 s
1/1000, ,
.
,
, , 90 000
200 000,
, 85 000
-
. 3/20

,
.
, ,
, ,
196

.
, , ,
,
.
,

,
.

1. n!, ,
, .
(67.3),
.
2. ( 1947/1951, . 820).
3. : , q .
,
. , ,
( 2007)
(1814/1999, . 862, ),
. 1823 .,
. (1837, . 73)
.
4. (Montmort 1708/1713, p.
245), Todhunter (1865/1965, p. 97).
t

5. , ( x a ) ( x )dx , (x)

, r- .
t2iexp( t2) 0 i,
(1816) ,
. 82
, ,
.
6. (85.2) .
7. u, .
8. [. . 18 . 1. . .]
, ,
(1825, . 70).
. . . .
9. . .
. 18 . 1.
10. . , l = g + h.
11. , = c. , ,
.
12. , , .
13. , 1/55.

197

. (1843, .),
. ., 1970.
. . (1947),
, . 2. .-., 1951. .
. . (2007), . -.
, . 12 (47), . 312 320.
Gauss C. F., . . (1816 .), .
. . ., . 1. ., 1957, . 121 128.
Kramp Chr. (1798), Analyse des rfractions astronomiques. Leipzig
Strassburg. (1843) .
Laplace P. S., . . (1814 .),
. . ., (1999),
. . ., . 834 866.
Montmort P. R. (1708), Essai danalyse sur les jeux de hasard. Paris, 1713; New
York, 1980.
Poisson S. D. (1825), Sur lavantage du banquier au jeu de trente-et-quarante.
Ann. Math. Pures et Appl., t. 16, pp. 173 208.
--- (1830), Sur la proportion des naissances des filles et des garons. Mm. Acad.
Sci. Paris, t. 9, pp. 239 308.
--- (1837), Sur la probabilit du tir a la cible. Mmorial dartill., No. 4, pp. 59
94.
Todhunter I. (1865), History of the Mathematical Theory of Probability. New
York, 1949, 1965.

198

4.
,

/,
1. 94, . 247 , ,
, dx.
2. 95, . 251 ,
,
( ).
3. 96, . 253 ,
exp (t2).
4. 103, . 274 .
i : i
.
5. 104, . 277 , 10
.
6. 106, . 285 ,
, 1/ .
7. 106, . 286 ,
.
s/ s2/ 2.
8. 106, . 287 ,
,
.
9. 107, . 288 .

, .
10. 109, . 295 , 4
1/, , . 4 . 296.
11. 110, . 301 , 5 .
, s .
12. 112/2, . 308 , 2 (b).
F F E F.
13. 112/8, . 312 ,
4g.
.
14. 112/12, . 315 , 2
.
.
199

15. 113, . 316 .


. .
. 18.
.
94. ,
.
, 52 53,
.
= m + n ,
F , 1 q1
, 2 q2 , , q
.
1 + q1 = 2 + q2 = = + q = 1.
U ,
- m n . 20 U
umvn 1
X = (up1 + vq1) (up2 + vq2) (up + vq ).
u = e x

, v = e x

(94.1)

, Uumvn

Ue( mn ) x 1 .
, ,
e ( m n ) x 1
:

X exp[(m n) x

1]dx = 2U .

[] (94.1)

upi + vqi = cos x + ( pi qi ) sin x 1.

cos2x + (pi qi)2sin2x = i2


200

ri
(1/i)cosx = cosri, (1/i)(pi qi)sinx = sinri,

upi + vqi = i exp( ri 1).


i ;

12 = Y, r1 + r2 + + r = y.

(94.2a, b)

u []

U=

1
1
Y cos[ y (m n ) x ]dx +
Y sin[ y (m n ) x ]dx.

2
2

,
(94.3).
.
,
U. ,
, ,
U.
95. = 0 (94.2)
,
. ,
, (94.2), ,
, , ,
, Y .
, Y
; ,

. ,
i2 = 1 4piqisin2x,
F piqi
.
, ,
201

,
,
.
, 2,
:
i = 1 2piqix2 + [(2/3)piqi 2pi2qi2)x4 ],
lni = 2piqix2 + [(2/3)piqi 4pi2qi2]x4 ,
lnY = k2x2 + [(1/3)k2 k2]x4

k2 = 2piqi, k2 = 4pi2qi2,
i = 1 i = .
, = z/, z
, ,
1/,
Y = exp( k2z2).
, i sinri,
ri = (pi qi)x + (4/3)(pi qi)piqix3 +

h = (4/3)(pi qi)piqi
q F, p + q = 1.
1/,
y = z(p q) + z3h/,
cos[y (m n)x] = cos(zg) [z3h/]sin(zg),

g = (p m/) (q n/).
Y cos[y (m n)x]
U (94.3), , dx = dz/:
202

U=

[ exp( k 2 z 2 ) cos( zg )dz

h
exp( k 2 z 2 )z 3 sin( zg )dz ].

[ , ]
U=

1
h exp( 2 )
exp( 2 )
(3 + 22 ) ,
k
2k 4

(95.1)

p m/ = k, q n/ = k, g = 2k,

m = p k, n = q + k,
. . , p q
2.
96. m n ,
= 1/k . = 0 (95.1)
1 / k , m/n = p/q.
t , ;
= t t
,

2
exp( t 2 ),
k

(96.1)

. . , m n

p m kt , q kt .
u (96.1)
t = , 2, , u.
, U = 0,
R:
203

R=

1
2
+
k k

exp( t

).

, m n

p m uk , q uk
- .
t t = u , .

t = t = u + .
, 91, ,
, , . .
c ,

exp(t
u

)dt exp( u 2 ).
2

u = 0 , t = ,
, (1/2)( ). ,
, ,
R

exp( t 2 ) =

1
1
1 1
exp( t 2 )dt + exp( u 2 ).
2
u
2 2

2
exp( u 2 )
2
R = 1
exp(

t
)
dt
+
.
u
k

(96.2)

pi qi
p q, k = 2 pq . (96.2)
m n (79.1)
.
, ,
.
204

u , , 3
4, R .
,
m/ n/
q,
, , ,
.
52.
97. ,
,
w.
w w ,
+ 1. ,
.
, = .
, ,
. ,
,
.
n - ,
- . ,
N1 nw , N2
, . . s
,
. ,
.
s = mw . m
, -
. [
, .]

N t N t
nw

nw

... N t nw ,

t ,
n .
tw, ,
tmw. =
1. = 2. nw nw t,
; ,
, mw,
,
205

n+ n = m n n, .
N1
N2, n n.
, s = mw
tmw .

= 3, 4, N1, N2, ,
,
, 17.
, t w = exp( 1)
, 3

1
X exp( m 1)d .
2

i i1 ,
s iw i1w - .
,
m = i, i + 1, , i1. ,
exp( m 1),
: [].
, w , i i1
, ,
iw = c , i1w = c + , = wx, d = wdx,
, ,
i1 > i,
.
. , sin(/2) = wx/2, ,
1/2 i i1,

1
dx
P = X exp( cx 1)sin x .

x

(97.1)


, ,
.
b, z,
206

w = a , w = b, nw = z , t nw = exp( xz 1).

N1 = wf1z, N2 = wf2z,
, ,
, b. w dz,
,
b

X = e xz

b
1

f1zdz e xz

f 2 zdz... e xz

f zdz

(97.2)

,
(97.1) .
98. ,

c c + . n-
z fnzdz,
a b,
.
b

f zdz = 1.
n

fnz ,
a b .
z
, n.
fz,

b xz 1
b
X = e
fzdz , fzdz = 1.
a
a
, fz ,
, ,
1/(a b).
a = h g, b = h + g,

1
fz =
,
2g

e
a

xz 1

fzdz =

sin gx hx
e
gx

,
207

(97.1) []

2 sin gx sin x
cos[(h c ) x ]dx.
P =
0 gx
x
[ 99]
1
,
!
= ( + g + ) m ( + g 2 g + )

2(2 g ) P =

(99.1)

C2 ( + g 4 g + ) m C3 ( + g 6 g + ) + ... ,
1 . (99.1),
, .
100. = 1, . . - ,
, ,

b h g h + g,
+ .
, = 1.
,
2 2g . ,
,
= 0; h
g h + g, + ,
(h + g) (c ) 2g. , +
h g, h + g, ,
( + ) (h g)
. :
P = 1, P =

h+ g c+
c+h+ g
, P = 0, P =
, P=
.
g
2g
2g

(99.1), = 1

P=
208

1
( 1 ).
4g

, = h c,
= ( h + g c + ) m ( h g c + ),
1 = (h + g c ) m (h g c ).

(100.1)
(100.1b)

c + > h + g c < h g.
(100.1) ,
(100.1b) .
,
.
h + g > c + , h g < c .

, .
h g > c +
. h + g < c
, = 0.
c > h g, c < h + g, c + > h + g.
,

.
c < h g, c + > h g, c + < h + g.
,
,
.
:
1. = 2 g , 1 = 2 g , P = 1.
2. = 2h 2c + 2, 1 = 2h 2c 2, P = /g .
3. = 2 g , 1 = 2 g , P = 0.
h+g c+
4. = 2h 2c + 2, 1 = 2 g , P =
.
2g
c+h+ g
5. = 2 g , 1 = 2h 2c 2, P =
.
2g
-
(97.1) . f1z
, z
a b, ,
+
209

c +

P=

f1 zdz .

= 1 (97.2) (97.1)
b

X = e xz

f1zdz ,

[]
b

1 sin[(c + z ) x ]
sin[( c z ) x ]
P =
dx
dx f1 zdz .
a0
x
x
0

sin x

dx =
x
2
0

.

+ z z
z z, , + ,
, .
b, + .
, f1z ,
f1z z = + ,
.
101. ,
, 95,
(97.1) ,
. , (97.2)

b

X = e

b
xz1 1

f1 z1dz1 e

b
xz2 1

[ ]
X = Ye y
210

f 2 z2dz2 ... e
a

xz 1

f z dz .

12 = Y, r1 + r2 + + r = y.
(97.1), []

P=

2
dx
Y cos( y cx )sin x .

(101.1)

[]
Y, = 0, ,
, ,
. , 95,
4, Y ,
, (101.1)
, Y
,
Y = exp( 2).
, ,
. dx
d, 5 ncosrn nsinrn
zn z .
b

zf n zdz = kn ,

2
z f n zdz = kn ,

f n zdz = kn,...,


n cos rn = 1

x2
x4
x3
kn + kn ..., n sin rn = xkn kn + ...
2!
4!
3!

,
(kn k2n)/2 = hn, (kn 3knkn + 2kn3)/6 = gn, []
kn = k, hn = h, gn = g, (ln hn2/2) = l,
n = 1 .

211

lnY = 2 = x2h + x4l ,


,
x=

l 3
dx d ld
+
+ ... ,
=
+
+ ...
2
x
h 2
h 2h h

[ , ]

2
d
P = exp( 2 ) cos[(k c ) x ]sin x +
0

2g
exp( 2 ) sin[(k c) x ]sin x 2d,

h h 0

(101.2)

2
P = 1
exp( t 2 )dt

(101.3)

, ,
s

k m 2u h , k = c /.

(101.4)


s/.
102. u , (101.3)
.
, s/
k.
,
,
, . . ,
,
53,
.
,
, ,
k.
212

(s/ k)
, .
z fnz,
n-
, fnzdz
,
z. z (1/)fnz
.
a b, ,

f zdz = 1.
n

(102.1)

,
b

k=

1
zf n zdz = .
a

k,
. ,
,
, , . . fn( z) = fnz
n z.
h . [
]
b b

4hn = ( z z ) 2 f n zf n z dzdz .
a a

4hn
,
. hn h.
,
.
n fnz = 1/(b a)
6
kn = k = (a + b)/2, hn = h = (a2 + ab + b2)/6 (a + b)2/8.
213

s/, ,

1
2ub
u( b a )
( a + b) m
, m
a = b.
2
6
6

(102.2, b)

, ( 82) u = 0.4765, s/
0.389b/.
= 600 , s/
, 0.4765b/310 0.016b.
,

2b.

2u / 6 b.
b,
, , fnzdz
z z.
, ,
b, ,
, (102.1),
fnz = 2z/b2. 7
kn = k = 2b/3, 2hn = 2h = b2/2 4b2/9
,

2b ub
m
.
3 3
103. ( 97) ,
, , b,
,
.
f1z, f2z,

, 8.
c1, c2, , c z, a b,
fnz z,
214

c1, c2, , c.
,
c1 +

c2 +

f n zdz = 1 ,

c1

c +

f n zdz = 2 ,...,

c2

f n zdz = .

c1,
c2, , c, n- 1, 2, ,
, . .
n.
n- , n 1

1 + 2 + + = 1.
fnz,
(102.1). [
, ]
b

zf zdz = c
n

1 1

+ 2c2 +...+ c ,

a
b

f n zdz = 1c12 + 2c2 2 +...+ c 2 ,

k h 101
1
(1c1 + 2c2 +...+ c ),

1
h=
[(1c12 + 2 c2 2 +...+ c 2 ) (1c1 + 2c2 +...+ c )2 ] .

k=


(101.3) , s
(101.4),
k h
,
.
, ,
, 1/
215

k = (c1 + c2 + + c)/,
h = [(c12+ c22+ + c2) (c1 + c2 + + c)2]/22.
, ,
, ,
.

,

= 6, c1 = 1, c2 = 2, c3 = 3, c4 = 4, c5 = 5, c6 = 6,
k = 7/2, h = 35/24,
(101.3) , s ,
,

1
70
7 m u
.
2
3
u = 0.4765 = 100, s
350 11.5 .
104. , 52,
,
C1, C2, , C.
Ci ci i
.
, c1,
c2, , c 1, 2, , C1,
C2, , C. ,
(101.3) ,
,
(101.4). c1, c2, , c 1, 2,
, , k h
k = 1c1 + 2c2 + + c,
(104.1)
2
2
2
h = [(1c1 + 2c2 + + c ) (1c1 + 2c2 + + c)2]/2
, , ,
, , .
216

u ,
,

(104.1)

. 52,
.
,
m m , m/ m/

( 96). ,
k (104.1) ,
, , k
, C1, C2,
.
m/ m/?
.
105. ,
(101.3), , k
h, ,
.

,
,
.

.
, (101.2) c = []
s
2. ,
[] ,
s = 2.

2 = k + 2 h , d = hd .
wd (dP/d)d,
1/ ,
101, .
. / h . [ ]

217

s
2v h
=k+
,

9 ,
. C1, C2, , C
, ,
,
1, 2, , ,
. ,
.
b; , ,
, .
Zidz , i,
, z .
b

zf zdz,

(105.1)

n- , ,
zZ1, zZ2, , zZ
,
. , i
zZi.

b

1
zf n zdz
a
s/
: s
(105.1)
, k h
.
Zi c1, c2, ,
c ( 103),
b

= i zZ i dz ,
a

218

b
b
1

1
= i zZ i dz i zZ i dz ,
(105.2)
2
a
a
2

10 i = 1 .
, , ,
k h. 1
,
, V1 ,
1, w1dv1

w1dv1 =

1
V
[1 1 ]exp( v12 )dv1 ,

2v
1
zf n zdz = + 1
.

(105.3)


b
b

1 2
1
z
f
zdz

z
f
zdz

n
n
2 a
2 a

, v
C1, C2, , C ,
. ,
)
v
)
)
, v / , V
)
, v ,

)
1
V
) )
) )
wdv =
[1
]exp( v 2 )dv

b
b

1
1
2
= i z Z i dz i zZ i dz .
2
2
a
a

219

) )
wdv ,
,
2

b
b

1
1
2
z f n zdz
zf n zdz ,

2
2 a
a


1/, . ,
h 101. ,
1/,
s/, 1/,
h. ,

s
2v
=k+
,

,
h , wdv.
) )
)
wdv , v ,
s/.
wdv
) )
)
wdv , v .
,
)
) )
exp( v 2 ) wdv

)
)
v = . , V , ,
,
,

wdv = 1.

,
wdv,
h . ,
, (105.3),
k 101, w1dv1 ,

220

k =+

2v1
.

s/,

2v 2 v
s
=+ 1
+
,

. . ,
v v1 wdvw1dv1,
, ,
:

1
1
[1
(V + V1 )]exp( v 2 v12 )dvdv1.


, , v v1, .
,

v1 + v = + .
,
v1 dv1 :

v1 =

+ v
+

, dv1 =
d.

[ , ]

2 +
s
=+

(105.4)



,
, v. , ,
221

,
[?] v =
.
, []

d =

1
1
exp( 2 )d
exp( 2 )d

(105.4); ,
.
( + ). ,

b
b

1
1
2
+ = i z Z i dz i zZ i dz
2
2
a
a

(105.5)

i zZ i dz , ,
a

.
106. [ ]
b

1
z 2 f n zdz

) )
[ , ] wdv ,
b

1
i z 2 Zdz

2
a
/2
1/. , ,
, , , 105,
+
/2, d .
+ 2/2,
+ = /2 2/2,
(105.4)
222

2 2 2
s
=+
.

Z z. 97
101, wdv 105
Z
,
A1 Z.
- A1 ,
z, n-
fnzdz. k1, h1, g1, ,
A1, 101
k, h, g, ,
2v h1
s1
= k1 +

Z = z2,
b

k1 =

1
z 2 f n zdz = .

s/
= s1/. 105, ,
d

2 s1 / 2 2
2 s1 / 2 s 2 / 2
s
s
=+
= +
,

,
1/.
n n-

n/ = , (n )2/ = l2/2.

223

s1
=

2
n

s
, =

s s
, 1 =

)2

s
l
=+
.

, u
, d
= u u , s/
ul/.
d,

1
exp( )d
=

exp( )d .
2

,
, , , ,
(101.3).
, ,
ul/,
, s/
.
, , C1, C2,
, C
.
107. ,
. s
s, n n n- .

n/ = , (n )2/ = l2/2, n/ = , (n )2/ = l2/2.


, . .
n = 1 , n = 1 .
C1, C2, , C ,
(105.2) .
,
224

. ,
, 11

s
l s
l
=+
,
= +
,

(107.1)

d d

[1
]exp( 2 )d ,

d =
[1
]exp( 2 ) d.

d =

,
. ,
, s/ s/ .
5
d d.
- (107.1)
. [] , ,

dd =

[1

]exp( 2 2 )dd . (107.2)

105,
l l t l 2 + l 2

=
,



s s t l 2 + l 2
=
.

, (107.2) t,
,
225

t l 2 + l 2 l
l 2 + l 2
+
, d =
dt
l
l
l


dtd l 2 + l 2
=
(1 ) exp( 2 t 3 ) ,
l

,
t . s/ s/ t,
,
, , .
, ,

.
= t, d = dt ,

=

1
(1 ) exp( t 2 t 2 )dt dt .

[ , ]
u l 2 + l 2
m

,
u

2
exp( t 2 )dt

s/ s/.
(101.3). ,
,
,
.
226

u , ,
, ,
,
, 1, 2,
, , . .
1, 2, ,
,
.
106, l l

2 + .
,
. ,
, , l = l.
(101.3)
, s/

s ul +
m
,


u
.
u, . .
, ,
s/, + .
,
.
108.
,

, s/ s/,
,
,
( 60)12. , ,
, s/ s/
.
, +
, l l.
, ,
227

s/ s/
.
g g
, ,
(107.1), g g:

gs g s gl g l
+

,
,
, , ,
(101.3), ,

gs g s u g 2l 2 + g 2l 2
+
m
.

, , . .
u,
, g g,
u
. g + g = 1 dg = dg ,

g=

l 2
l 2

,
g
,
=
l 2 + l 2
l 2 + l 2


sl 2 + sl 2
m
l 2 + l 2

ull
l 2 + l 2

(101.3).

,
.
, s, l
228

, s, l , s, l . .
,


+ 2 + 2 + ... = D 2 , 2 2 = q, 2 2 = q, 2 2 = q, ...
2
l
l l
Dl
D l
D l
(101.3) ,

sq sq sq
u
+
+
+ ... m ,

.
u,
(101.3) ,

s/, s/, s/, ,
q, q, q,

m u /D ,
/l2, /l2, /l2,

, + +
+ . , l, l, l,
.
n = 1 + + +

+ + + ...

= ,

)2
l2
= 1 ,
+ + + ... 2
n

, , l1 l, l,
l, ,
(101.3),

s + s + s + ...
ul1
m
,
+ + + ...
+ + + ...
106, .
229

109. , 104,
, , .
-
m . pn n-
. pn/ = p pn2 = q. v
,
, U

v 2 p 2q
m
= p
.


(95.1), k
v,
U=

exp( v 2 )
.
2 ( p q)

104, ,
, 1, 2,
, v, 1, 2, , v , 1, 2, , v
, . , pn
v , 1,
2, , v, ,
r = 1c1 + 2c2 + + c, = 1c12+ 2c22+ + c2.

v1
, .

v1 2 2 r 2
p=r+

(109.1)

w1dv1 ( 105) (1/)exp( v12)dv1,


.
)
v .
, p q r
)
, v
230

) )
) )
1/, wdv (1/ ) exp( v 2 )dv ,
. 105.
, , , 1/,
, U
m/, p q r . ,

v 2r 2
m
.
= p

(109.2)

1
.
2( r )

m , v
,
1/.
(109.1) (109.2) ,
v1 2 2r 2 v 2r 2
m
=r+

v v1
U (1/)exp( v12)dv1,
. p q r U

1
exp( v 2 v12 )dv1 .
2( r )

v1 =

r r2
r
r r2
+
v
,
dv
=
d ,
1
r2
r2
r2

, 1/,
231

m
2 r 2r 2
m 2m( m )
=r+
, r=
.


[ , .]
r v
. ,
, v,
, , v.
,
dv .

1/. v
, , ,
, ,

v = .

r r2
r
r r2
+
=
=

,
d

dv,
1
1
r2
r2
r2

1 .
d r,

d
1
d = exp( 2 ) exp( 12 )d1 =
exp( 2 )d .

, u ,
, r

m u 2m( m )
m

(109.3)

(101.3),

u

d =
u

232

exp( )d .
2

, , r,
m/
,
, ,
, (109.3)
.

m .
,
.

r=

m 2m( m)

(1/)exp( 2)d,

m m 2m( m) 2m( m)
=

,



r
, (1/)exp( 2)d
(1/)exp( 2)d [
].
[ ] t , t
t.
(1/)exp( t2 t2)dtdt,
m m t 2 3m( m) + 2 3m( m )
=
.

t,
t
.
t =
, (1/)exp( t2)dt
(101.3). ,
m/ m/
`
233

u 2 3m( m) + 2 3m( m )
m
.

u ,
.
87 , ,
.
(87.2) 1/ 1/ ,
(101.3),
.
110.
,
; 60
13.
. [
, ]
1
[ ( 1) + C2 ( 2) C3 ( 3) + ...
!
+ ( 1) C2 ( 2) + C3 ( 3) ...] , (110.1)

P=

(Laplace 1812/1886, p. 261),


. [
, :]
h = g, = g c, c = 2g, c + = 2g.

2g
, (110.1)
, 2g 2g. ,
, ,
, ,
. n ,
,
(n + 1)- > n
< n.
, .
,
, ,
234

0 90 .
,
14
, , 0 90.
,
(110.1), 2g
, 90, = 0, = 1
= 10, = 1/10!.
,
, ,
; ,
90. ,
82,
,
.
,

.

, . . ,
.
, 10
, ,
1/2 , . . .
,
,


.
,
,
. ,
, ,
5/4, . . = 0, = 1.25 = 11,
(110.1)
P = (1/11!)(1.2511 0.2511).
, , , ,
1.25. ,
,
, 1.15.
,
,
235

, ,
, .
111. 138 , 240-
. . [ . .],
, .
71 67 .
,

- .
138 6752, . .15
75 2. ,
,
90 , (110.1) ,
75 .
.
,

, (101.3).
.
, a
b, = 0 b = 90,
. (101.3) ,

(. 102) 45 m 90u / 6 . u =
1.92 = 138, = 0.99338 ,

138
45 6. 150 ,
39 51,
4855. , ,

.
,
(101.3) ,
,
, 4855
, (. 107)

236

ul 138 +
.
138

138 l,
, - 16
3449. , , = u
= 1.92, 150 ,
138
821.
, ,
,
,
: m ul / 138.
1: 2, = . u = 1.92,
150/151 ,
542.

, 69 69
,
4912 4838 ,
-. , ,
,

,
; 141
8948. 71 67
;
473, 5054.

,
.

,
.
. ,
(Herschel 1834),
,

.
a b

,
. ,
,
q b. , q
237

:b,
.
, q
,
, , ,
. , ,
,
. 90
, 30,
17.
112. ,
.
.
, m n, .
, ,
.
112/1. q
F, + q
= 1. U , m ,
F n = m + n. 69
m

p q
U =
m n

.
2 mn

()

79
U=

exp( v 2 )
,
2 pq

m = p v 2pq , n = q + v 2pq .
v ,
.
F
, (95.1) q

.
238

112/2. F q
m n . U
, m n = m + n
. m n m n,
m = m/, n = n/.

( 71)
U =

U1 ,
+

(b)

U ,
m/ n/ F, . .

U1 = Cm (m /) m (n /) n .
112/3. q F ,
, = m + n
m , F n . ( 77) q/p > n/(m + 1)
q/p < n/(m + 1)

P=

1
( + n ) 2
exp( t 2 )dt +
exp( k 2 ) ,

k
3 mn

(c1)

1
( + n ) 2
P = 1
exp( t 2 )dt +
exp( k 2 ). (c2)

k
3 mn
k ,
k 2 = n ln

n
m +1
+ (m + 1) ln
.
q( + 1)
p ( + 1)

112/4. R ,
F

p m u 2pq , q u 2pq .
u ,
. ( 79)18
239

2
1
R = 1
exp( t 2 )dt +
exp( u 2 ).

u
2pq

(d)

, q , F m
n = m + n , ( 83)

R = 1

exp( t 2 )dt +
exp( u 2 )

2
mn
u

(e)

, q

m
u

2mn n
u
,
m

2mn
.

112/5. ,
, m m n
n F. u
, .
, m/ m/

u 2( 3mn + 3mn )
m
,

n/ n/
, 87 w:

2
w = 1
exp( t 2 )dt +
u

u 2 ( 3mn + 3mn )
exp[
].
2mn(+)
2mn( + )

(f)

m/ m/ , n/ n/ ,
w , m, n ,
m, n ,
. ,
240

( 109), ,
F ,

,
,

, F.
112/6. F m n
. E1
F1 m1 n1 1 ,
. ,
m1/ 1 m/ = ,


p1
E1 , , p1
.
, u ,

( )1 1
2( 3m1n1 + 13mn )

= u.

.
88

2
exp( t )dt, = 1
u

exp( t

)dt .

(g)

,
,
. ,

m/, , w,
,
u = (w

m
)
.
2mn

241


, w m/.
112/7. F
.
i pi qi, pi + qi = 1.
,
pi/ = p, qi/ = q, 2piqi/ = k2,
i = 1 .
, , F m n
u
. ( 96)

2
exp( u 2 )
2
R = 1
exp( t )dt +
u
k

(h)

, m/ n/
p m uk / , q uk / .
(d) .
112/8.
h g, .
, i

c . ( 99)
2(2 g )i P =

1
,
i!

(i)

= (ih + ig 4 g c + )i m i (ih + ig 2 g c + )i
Ci2 (ih + ig 4 g c + )i m Ci3 (ih + ig 6 g c + )i ...

1 .
, ,
,
. g , h c
, .
242

112/9.
,
,
s ,
( 101)

2
P = 1
exp( t 2 )dt
u

(k)

s/
k m 2u h /. u ,
, h , k h
.

a b
,
k = (a + b)/2, h = (b a)/26.

c1, c2, ,
c, ,
1
k = (c1 + c2 +...+ c )
v
1
h = 2 [v (c12 + c2 2 +...+ c 2 ) (c1 + c2 +...+ c ) 2 ] .
2v

112/10. n n- .
,
n/ = , (n )2/ = l2/2,
n = 1 . ,

, ,
.
, s/
,
, . (k)
, ( 106)
243

s ul
m
,

.
112/11.
s , l , l,
. (k)
, s/ s/
( 107)
u l 2 + l 2
m
.

l l
, s/

s ul +
m
,



u ,
.
112/12.
,
, , , ,
s, s, s, l ,
, ,
l, l, ,

, , ,
, , , s/, s/ , s/ ,

, . ,


19. , (k)
,
( 108)
244

sq sq sq
u
+
+
+ ... m ,

(112.1)


+ 2 + 2 + ... = D 2 , 2 2 = q, 2 2 = q, 2 2 = q, ...
2
l
l l
Dl
D l
D l
, (112.1), . . s/,
s/ , s/ , q, q, q,
,
,
, . . ,
m u /D u
.
112/13. ,
,
(f). m/
r
, .
(f), ,
(k) , r
( 109)

m u 2m( m )
m
.


113. ,
,
,
,
.
(1812). 126 ,

20, ,
, ,
, ,
,
1/1070, Laplace (1812/1886, pp. 516 519). ,
,
245

1/1050, 1/1070
1/50 , ,
. 1/1050
,
1204 ;
21 ,
.
-,
, ,
1/50 ,
,
,
, .
-
. ,


, ,
.
,
22,
.

1. U(m, n)umvn u v.
. 20.
2. (95.1)
.
, (97.1) (101.1). ,
, (
, ) . .
. . . . 102 103,
(1824, 1 7; 1837).
52,
,
.
Hald (1998, pp. 317 327)
. (. 327) ,

. , ,
. , ,
.
3.
.
.

246

4.
(1824), 60.
5. . 94.
6. .
7. . . 6.
8. . (1811/1833, . 637)
.
9 .
10. . 3 . 3 ,
.
11.

; 109
. ( 88 . 3)
.
12. . . 18 . 2.
13. ,
, . [] (1837).

14. 10 ,
(1843/1970, . 235), 4 .
15. ,
75 . , ,


.
16. . (1767 1843), .
.
17.
()
, ,
.
, .
18. , .
(d) (e). , ( 2011)
, . . 71 . 3.
19. . . 18 . 2.
20. .
( 1 (1816)
, . Laplace (1812/1886, . 516 519), 126 ,
129 . ,
,
, 1/100.
,
.
, , .
21. F. B. G. Nicolai (1793 1846), .
22. ,
, - .

247


. (1843, .), . .
. . .
. . (2011), . . , . 14 (49), . 212 219.
Hald A. (1998), History of Mathematical Statistics from 1750 to 1930. New York.
Herschel J. (1834), Trait dastronomie. .
Outlines of Astronomy. London, 1849, 2nd edition.
Laplace P. S. (1816), Thorie analytique des probabilits,
1812. Oeuvr. Compl., t. 7. Paris, 1886, pp. 497 530.
Poisson S. D. (1811), Trait de mcanique, t. 1. Paris, 1833.
--- (1824), Sur la probabilit des rsultats moyens dobservations. Conn. des temps
pour 1827, pp. 273 302.
--- (1829), Sur la probabilit Ibidem, pour 1832, pp. 3 22.
--- (1837), Sur la probabilit du tir a la cible. Mmorial de lartill., No. 4, pp. 59
94.

248

. 5.


1
/,
1. 116, . 327 .
(1 u), (1 u).
2. 127, . 350 . (14)
Zi, Z.
3. 130, . 358 . Uiudu:

0, 0.
4. 131, . 361 , 2 .
Ui, Ui.
5. 134, . 370 .
a'i/' ai/, ai .
6. 135, . 374 .
a4/ a4/
a4/. .
140 143.
7. 139, . 383 .
(139.2) 495t4, 495t5.
8. 149, . 409 .
35v4(1 v)
35v4(1 v)3.
/ .
114.
,
. ,
. k .

. u
,
,
. ,
, , .

249

5 ku,
(1 k)(1 u). , 10,

= ku + (1 k)(1 u),

(114.1)

(1 ). ,
, ,
.
1 = k(1 u) + u(1 k),

.
,
2 1 = (2k 1)(2u 1),

, 2 1 = 0 (2k 1), (2u 1)


.
, (2k 1) (2u 1)
.
= 1/2 + (2k 1)(2u 1)/2,
1/2
(2k 1)(2u 1), .

:
. ,
, 34,
, .
,
p.
p=

ku
,
ku + (1 k )(1 u )

(114.2)


,
, , ku
(1 k)(1 u).
250

q
, . . .
,
(1 k)u k(1 u)
,
q=

(1 k )u
.
(1 k )u + k (1 u )

(114.3)

q 1 ,

p = ku/, q = (1 k)u/(1 ).

, , ,

u = p + q(1 ),

.
:
, .
9 ,
,
, ,
(1 )q, ( 10) u
. ,
, , , ,
, q, . k 1/2,
, , u u = 0 1.

. ,
,
( 36). ,
, .

, :
k, (1 k)
.
, k , ,
, (1 k)
q .
251

, k
(1 k) ,
,
. ,
, u > 1/2 < 1/2.
q, ,
p=k+

k (1 k )(2u 1)
k (1 k )(2u 1)
, q = 1 k
,

p > k, p < k, q < (1 k), q > (1 k)


u > 1/2 u < 1/2 . u = 1/2
k (1 k) .
p q ,
p + q(1 ) = u = k + (1 k)(1 ).

- , k ,
,
, .
,
, ,
.
k (1 k)(1 ),
u.
k = 1/2, q
= q = u. ,
,
,
,
. k = 1, . .
, = 1 q = 0.
,
.
k = 0, . .
. ,
.
= u 1 u . ,
, , k = 1 0
.
115. ,
,
252

u. , b,
, ;
; .

.
,
= .
,
.
(114.1) u k u.
,
= pu + (1 p)(1 u)
(114.1) (114.2) ,
c = kuu + (1 k)(1 u)(1 u).


a = k(1 u)(1 u) + (1 k)uu.

, ,
, ,
:
a + c = uu + (1 u)(1 u).

,
.
,
1,
(1 )1 ,
.
, (1 q) ,

. 1 (114.1)
k u (1 q) u, ,
1 = (1 q)u + q(1 u).

253

(1 ) q, (114.1)
(114.3),
(1 )1 = k(1 u)u + (1 k)(1 u)u.

, , u u ,
,
, ,
.

, -
b = (1 u) u + (1 u)u.

, , ,
k. u = u = 1/2 1/2,
, a + b + c, ,
.
,
, (114.2) k u
u,
(114.3) k u (1 q) u.
p q,
p =

pu
qu
, q =
.
pu + (1 p )(1 u)
qu + (1 q )(1 u)

p q,
(114.2) (114.3), p q
p =

kuu
(1 k )uu
, q =
.
kuu + (1 k )(1 u )(1 u)
(1 k )uu + k (1 u )(1 u)

p1
, q1

. p1 ,
, ,
, (114.2) u k u
(1 q). q1 (114.3) u
k u p. ,
254

p1 =

(1 q )u
(1 p )u
, q1 =
(1 q )u + q(1 u)
(1 p )u + p (1 u)

, (114.2) (114.3),
p1 =

k (1 u )u
(1 k )(1 u )u
, q1 =
.
k (1 u )u + (1 k )(1 u)u
(1 k )(1 u )u + k (1 u)u

, ,
, , (1 q1).
, , p1
u u, :
,
, (1 p1), q1
u u.
u = u p1 = k q1 = (1 k), ,
,
,
,
.
116.
- ,
.

.
, .
u, u u ,
, k ,
. ,
,
, , ,
.

kuuu + k(1 u)(1 u)(1 u).

,

k(1 u)(1 u)(1 u) + (1 k)uuu.
255


, :
uuu + (1 u)(1 u)(1 u).

k,
.


, u, u
u. ,
. ,

kuu(1 u) + (1 k)(1 u)(1 u)u,
kuu(1 u) + (1 k)(1 u)(1 u) u,
kuu(1 u) + (1 k)(1 u)(1 u)u,
k(1 u)(1 u)u + (1 k)(1 u)uu,
k(1 u)(1 u)u + (1 k)(1 u)uu,
k(1 u)(1 u)u + (1 k)(1 u)uu.

,
, :
uu(1 u) + uu(1 u) + uu(1 u) + (1 u)(1 u)u +
(1 u)(1 u)u + (1 u)(1 u)u.

, k.

, .

, , ,
. , ,
, u
u ,
kuu(1 u) (1 k)(1 u)(1 u)u
. , 34,

kuu(1 u)
.
kuu(1 u) + (1 k )(1 u )(1 u)u
256

u= u u
u. ,
, u.



. ,
, ,

.
,
[]
, .
,
, 2. u, u
u, ,
,
, .
117. , , ,
.

.
u
, n ; , , k
, . i
= 0, 1, 2, , n i (n i)
i .
,
, (n i) ,
i ; , ,
(n i) , i .
kuni(1 u)i,
, i n.
(1 k)ui(1 u)ni,
, (n i)
.
[]
i = Ni[kuni(1 u)i + (1 k)ui(1 u)ni]

(117.1)

257

[ Ni n i]
i.
n i > i, n 2i = m,
m . i
, (n i) ,
. ,
i, i
(n i) i, Ni.

i = Ni[kui(1 u)ni + (1 k)uni (1 u)i].

(117.2)

,
i + i = Ni[uni(1 u)i + ui (1 u)ni],
k. ,
m ,
.
u = 1/2 i i
k,
i = i = Ni/2n.
k = 1/2 u.
118. ci
, (n i)
, i , . .
m . di ,
, (n i)
, i . 10
ci = 0 + 1 + 2 + + i, di = 0 + 1 + 2 + + i,

,
ci = kUi + (1 k)Ui, di = kVi + (1 k)Ui.

(118.1)


N0un + N1un1(1 u) + N2un2(1 u)2 + + Niuni(1 u)i = Ui,
N0(1 u)n + N1(1 u)n1u + N2(1 u)n2u2 + + Ni(1 u)niui = Vi,
258

Ui u, u (1 u)
Vi.
ci + di = Ui + Vi

k ,
,
m .
di i (n i 1), ,

Ui + Vni1 = 1, ci + dni1 = 1.

(n i) ,
, ,
(n i 1) . , ,
ci dni1 .
n , , n = 2i + 1 m = 1
Ui + Vi = [u + (1 u)]n = 1, ci + di = 1.

, ,
,
. n ,
m = 2, n = 2i + 2.
Ui + Vi = [u + (1 u)]n Ni+1ui+1(1 u)i+1
ci + d i = 1

(2i + 2)(2i + 1)2i...(i + 2)


[u (1 u )]i +1 .
(i + 1)!


,

.
ci + di
, k. Hi,

Hi =

(2i + 2)![u(1 u)i +1 ]


.
[(i + 1)!]2
259

u(1 u) , 1/4, u = 1/2.


Hi u
1/2. i.
,
H i +1 =

(2i + 3)(2i + 4)u (1 u )


Hi .
(i + 1) 2


Hi+1:Hi ;
Hi u = 1/2 i = 0 1/2.
i + 1 , ( 67) []
[4u (1 u )]i +1
1
Hi =
[1
+ ...]
8(i + 1)
(i + 1)

, , ,
, u 1/2
4u(1 u) . u = 1/2 , , i + 1 = 6
n = 12 ,
, 230.94 /1024.
231/1024,
i + 1 .
Ui + Vi = Gi ,
, 1 Gi
. ci
ci = k k(1 Gi) (2k 1)Vi,

2k 1 > 0 k > 1/2 ci < k.


,
, ,
, . .
,
. , ,
4 ,
.
,
, u, . u = 1
i Ui = 1, Vi = 0, ci = k, di = 1 k, u = 0 Ui = 0,
260

Vi = 1, ci = (1 k), di = k. u

. (117.1) (117.2),
, i = 0, i = i = 0.
119. ,
pi , ,
(n i) i , . .
m , qi ,
, . , pi
qi ,
m n
.
, . . , Nikuni(1 u)i
Ni(1 k) i(1 u)niui ,
. 34, Ni
,

ku n i (1 u )i
pi = n i
.
ku (1 u )i + (1 k )(1 u )n i u i

(119.1)

qi =

(1 k )u n i (1 u)i
.
(1 k )u n i (1 u )i + k (1 u )n i u i

(119.2)

k = 1/2, pi = qi. ,
,
, ,

, . u = 1/2 uni(1 u)i =
(1 u)niui , , pi = k qi = 1 k
n i.
(119.1) (119.2) u = t/(1 + t), 1 u = 1/(1 + t).
, n = m + 2i,

pi =

kt m
(1 k )t m
,
q
=
,
i
kt m + 1 k
(1 k )t m + k

,
m,
, n .
261


,
, []
. , u
.
, ,
.
u ,
, , ,
, , . ,
, ,
.
(117.1) (117.2) n = 2i + 1.
wi Ni,

wi =

(2i + 1)![u(1 u )]i


2i + 3
, wi +1 =
4u(1 u ) wi .
2
(i !) (i + 1)
2i + 4

4u(1 u) ,
wi+1 < wi. wi Hi 118, ,
1:2u(1 u),
i.
120. ,
m ,
m, m + 2, m + 4, , m + 2i, ,
, , pi;
i. , ,
, ,
kUi.
(1 k)Vi, , . ,
[ ]
m ,
Pi =

kU i
(1 k )U i
, Qi =
.
kU i + (1 k )Vi
(1 k )U i + kVi

(120.1, 2)


Pi Qi. 3, pi
qi, n
m n 2i.
262

k = 1/2, Pi Qi
pi qi, ,
, . , ,
u = 3/4, 3 ,
.
, . . n = 12, i = 5
, pi = 9/10 1 pi = 1/10 , Ui =
725437/412 Vi = 239 122/412. ,
Pi = 403/409, 1 Pi = 6/409.
, 1 Pi

(1 pi) ,

.
(117.1, 117.2; 118.1; 119.1, 119.2; 120.1,120.2)
, ,
,
. k,
,
,
.
121. (n i) i ,
Ui Vi
. 1 u = v, Ui
(i + 1) (u + v)n,
v.
(77.1, b), p, q, n, u, v, i, n

1
(n + i ) 2
Ui =
exp( t 2 )dt +
exp( 2 ),


3 ni ( n i )

(121.1)

Ui = 1

1
(n + i ) 2
exp( t 2 )dt +
exp( 2 ),

3 ni (n i )

(121.1b)


2 = i ln

i
n +1 i
+ (n + 1 i ) ln
.
v (n + 1)
u( n + 1)

263

Ui
, v/u
i/(n + 1 i) .

, , ,
(n + 1) 2i 1,
v > u v < u
(121.1). u v 1/2, 4uv
, = iln(1/4uv).
, i , 2
,
(121.1) . Ui
u > v u < v.
Ui + Vi
i, Vi
u > v u < v.
, k
v
u
, Pi
n .
, n
,
. , u v, k
, , Pi
,
.
, ci di, (118.1),
k (1 k) u > v , , (1 k)
k, v > u.
u = v = 1/2 n = 2i + 1 2i + 2
i/(n + 1 i) , v/u ,
(121.1),
, ,
, i , ,
(121.1)

exp( x

)dx =


264

,
2

Ui =

1
1

2
i

.
n = 2i + 1, 1/2 u v,

1
1
2 = i ln[1 + ] (i + 2) ln[1
].
i
i+2

,
, = 1/i, Ui = 1/2. Vi + Ui = 1,
Vi 1/2 , , , Pi = k,
,
. n = 2i + 2, u = v = 1/2
2 = i ln[1 +

3
3
3
1
1
] (i + 3) ln[1
], =
, Ui =
.
2i
2i + 6
2 2 i
2 i

Hi 118
U i + Vi = 1

1
.
i

,
Vi =

1
1

2 2 i

, Ui = Vi, , Pi = k.
ci , ,
k Ui 1/2.
122. ,
n , ,
v
. 1, 2, , v
, 1, 2, , v , 1, 2,
, v . . , , Xi, Xi,
265

Xi, , i, i, i
.
1 xi, 1 i, 1 i, 1, 2, , v
,
1, 2, , v 1, 2, , v . .,
X1 + X2 + + X = 1,
X1 + X2 + + X = 1,
X1 + X2 + + X = 1,

(121.1)

,
X1x1 + X2x2 + + X x = u,
X1x1 + X2x2 + + Xx = u,
X1x1 + X2x2 + + X x = u,

(121.2)


X1(1 x1) + X2(1 x2) + + X (1 x) = 1 u,
X1(1 x1) + X2(1 x2) + + X (1 x) = 1 u,
X1(1 x1) + X2(1 x2) + + X (1 x) = 1 u

u, u, u (1 u), (1 u), (1 u)

.
,
i, i, i ,

Xi, Xi, Xi, :
= XiXiXi iii
,
n , ,
.
10 nv ,
1, 2, ,
n i, i, i, , n v
n u, u, u, , . . P = uuu
, i, i
, - ,
xi (1 xi) ,
266

, xi (1 xi), . .
, -
:
= XiXi Xi [(1 xi)i i +
xi(1 xi)i + ii (1 i) + ].


. nv ,
1, 2,
, v i, i, i, ,
u, u, u,
P = (1 u)uu + u(1 u)u + uu(1 u) +

,
: , n
(n i) , i , ,
, . . u
, u , , u,
u, u, ,

116, n .
,
(117.1, 117.2; 118.1; 119.1, 119.2; 120.1, 120.2)
, ,
u.
,

. ,
, ,
v , , -
, .
, , xi
, Xi
.
,
, xi, Xi
, . . xi.
, xi
267

Xi
, xi
,
, Xi
, . . . .
.
- 4
,
, u, u, u,
.
. []
, ,
,
.
.
123. v 1, 2, ,
. Xdx
, ,
, . u

. 5,
, , u,

, 0 1:
1

Xdx = 1, xXdx = u.
0

(123.1, 2)


, ,
(123.1).
u,
, ,
.
0 1 ,
, ,
(123.1). (123.2) u = 1/2.
,
,
,
6,
268

X = x +

.
1

Xdx =

/2 + = 1, = 1 /2, X = 1 /2 + x,

> 2.
u = 1/2 + /12

2/3, ,
1/2; = 2 0.
,

(123.1) ,
X =

e x
e 1

. ,
.
u=

1
1
.

1 e

, , u
0 1: = ,
0, , u = 0, 1/2 1.
0 1,
; ,
1/2; , , ,
.
, .
,
, fx ,
= (1/2 ) 1/2,
= 0 (1/2 )
g = 1/2 1.
269

, X = fx;
fx ,
1

1/2

Xdx =

g /2 +

fxdx.

1/2

(123.1)
1/2

fxdx = 1 g /2,

1/ 2

g 2, fx .

1/2

xfxdx

1/ 2

, 1/2,
1/2 g/4. , ,
1

xfxdx =
0

1/2

1/2

xfxdx +

xfxdx + xfxdx,

1/2

1/ 2

, 1/2 g/4 + g/2 g/8, .


. u = 1/2 + g/8.
,
u = 3/4, g = 2,
, 1/2, g = 0.
,
. ,
u .
, , ,
,
,
. ,
, -
, ,
.
,
270

. udu
,
u. ,
0 1 ,
, .
124.
, ,
k ,

.
, , ,
, . ,
, ,
,
.

.

,
. ,
k > 1/2, ?
. ,

. ,
.
,
,
, ,
. .
,
.
, ,
.
125. ,
. ,
,
0 1,
, u, udu.
, . . u
, (117.1)
, , ,
271

(n i) i . n
, k
. ,

(117.1), udu.
, ,
u, ,

u 0 1 ( 43). , widu
,
wi =

[ku n i (1 u )i + (1 k )u i (1 u ) n i ]u
1

[ku

n i

n i

(1 u ) + (1 k )u (1 u ) ]udu

Ni (117.1), u
wi, . i
, u
l l,
l

k u n i (1 u )i udu + (1 k ) u i (1 u )n i udu

i =

l
1

l
1

(125.1)

k u (1 u ) udu + (1 k ) u (1 u ) udu
n i

n i

n n = 2i ,
,
l

u (1 u) udu
i

i =

l
1

u (1 u) udu
i

, i k,
. -
u, 0 1
u = 1/2, , (1 u) = u,

272

n i
i
i
n i
u (1 u) udu = u (1 u) udu.

l < 1/2 l = 1 l,
l

n i
i
i
n i
u (1 u) udu = u (1 u) udu,
l

(125.1)
1 l

i =

n i

(1 u )i udu

l
1

n i

(1 u )i udu

k,
(n i) i.
(125.1) l = 1/2 l = 1
i,
1

k u (1 u ) udu + (1 k ) u i (1 u ) n i udu
n i

i =

1/2
1

1/2
1

k u n i (1 u )i udu + (1 k ) u i (1 u )n i udu

, u 1/2
1, . . . l = 0 l =
1/2, (125.1)
i, , u 1/2 [
(125.1),
1/2 1]. , ,
u = 1/2, , i + i = 1.
, , ,
, k,
, k
, (1 k).
126. u,
, (n i)
273

i, widu, ,
,
u, pi 119.
5 10
piwidu u = 0 1, . .
, wi pi:
1

k u n i (1 u )i udu

i =

0
1

(126.1)

k u (1 u ) udu + (1 k ) u (1 u ) udu
n i

n i

0 1 k.

1
1

k (1 k ) u n i (1 u )i udu u i (1 u ) n i udu
0
0
,
i = k + 1
1
k u n i (1 u )i udu + (1 k ) u i (1 u )n i udu
0

, k

,

. ,
n = 2i (1 u) = u, i = k. ,

,
u (1 u) 1/2 (1 2u)/2
.
i ,
m (n 2i) k,
pi, n
, u.
, , 201 ,
- ,

.
, ,
274

1/2,
,
.
, ,
wi 119, 1/9.
,
,
, . ,
101:100 ,
, , 201
,
,
.
127.
(125.1) (126.1), ,

k, ,
n , ,
.

( 122), .
, u
0 1. - ,
,
, u, udu
u. 0 1
, u
.
,
i (n i) .
, i
, u,
l l.
,
k, ,
i. , ,
,
. k ,
, ,
.
u, u, u,
, k,
275


116, n .

.
,
m (n 2i) ,
m + 2, m + 4, ,
Yi ,
, ,
l l, Zi , ,

,
i i, ci Pi ( 118 120) i i,
(125.1) (126.1).
1

0
1

l
1

k U i udu + (1 k ) Vi udu
Yi =

(127.1)

(127.1b)

k U i udu + (1 k ) Vi udu
0

0
1

k U i udu
Zi =

0
1

k U i udu + (1 k ) Vi udu

, (125.1) (126.1),
, , n n
, n
. ., ,
u udu,
u udu . . ,
, ,
, 7.
128. i (n i) ,
67 ,
(125.1, 126.1, 127.1).
(125.1) (126.1).
u = 0 1 un1(1 u)i
. ,
u.
276

n i
i i (n i ) n i n i
, =
, u (1 u )i = exp( x 2 ).
n
nn

, ,
x2 = lg (n i)lgu ilg(1 u).


= , 0, u = 0, , 1.
u = 0 1. , ,
l l u, ,
2

= (n i ) ln[( n i )/ln ] + i ln[i /n(1 l )] ,


= ( n i ) ln[( n i )/l n ] + i ln[i /n(1 l )].
l l , ,
,
. l < l > ,

, , .
u , ,
, , , , ,
u = + x + x2 + x3 +

, 2,

x2 =

n3
(x + x 2 + x 3 + ...)2 +
2i (n i )

n 4 ( n 2i )
(x + x 2 + x 3 + ...)3 + ...
2
2
3i ( n i )

[!], , ,
, ,

u=+x

2i (n i ) 2 x 2 (n 2i )

+ ...,
n3
3n 2
277

du =

2i (n i )
4 x (n 2i )
dx
+ ...
3
n
3n 2

u u
- u = ,
u, , u
(u ), .

2i ( n i )
2i (n i )
d 1
d 2
u = + [ x
...]
+ [x
...]
+ ...
n3
d 2
n3
d 2

un1(1 u)iudu 0, 1 (126.1)
= exp(x2)dx,
.
, , ,
. i (n i) , n,

1/n, 1/(nn), 1/(n2n),
, ,

exp( x

)dx = ,

,
1
n i
i
u (1 u) udu =
0

i i (n i ) n i 2i (n i ) n i
(
).
n
n n +1 n

, i (n i),
1
i
n i
u (1 u) udu =
0

i i (n i ) n i 2i (n i ) i
( ).
n
n n +1 n

,
n,

278

n i
2i (n i )
n i
2i (n i )

, l =
+
3
n
n
n
n3

l=

, 1/n,
, , = = .

l
n i
i
u (1 u) udu =
l

i i ( n i )n i 2i (n i ) n i
(
) exp( x 2 )dx
n +1
n
n
n

1/n.
.
,
, 2 3. l l,
(n i)/n,
.
,
n, ,

i
2i ( n i )
i
2i (n i )
, l = +
.

3
n
n
n
n3

l=

u (1 u)
i

n i

udu =

i i ( n i )n i 2i (n i ) i
( ) exp( x 2 )dx .
n
n n +1 n

(128.1)

l l, i/n,
.
(n i)/n i/n ,
l l
u = i/n, ui(1 u)ni
(128.1),
l l,
u = (n i)/n, uni(1 u) i,
(128.1)
.
279

129. (126.1)

,
, m = n 2i
n
i =

k[(n i )/n ]
.
k[(n i )/n ] + (1 k )(i /n )

, i/n, , ,
(n i)/n, ,
pi , ( 119) u
. , 1000
500 1500 100
50 150 , i
, pi
. ,
550 500
, pi ,
i .
, (n i)/n > 1/2 i/n < 1/2.
, u < 1/2 u ;
,
, 1/2
. , , k
,
i , ,
i = 1
.

(125.1) , (n i)/n i/n
,

1
n i
k (
) exp( x 2 )dx
n

i =
n i
i
k(
) + (1 k )( )
n
n

, u

280

n i
2i ( n i )
m
.
n
n3
,
(125.1) ,

1
i
k( ) exp( x 2 )dx
n

i =
n i
i
k (
) + (1 k )( )
n
n

i
2i (n i )
m
.
n
n3
,
, ,
. i
.
, u
, (n i)/n,
, , i/n,
.
, (i/n)
[(n i)/n], ,
, u
(n i)/n. , u (1 u)

(n i) i. ,
i ,
pi u = (n i)/n. ,
pi , u
.
, i,
, u
u,

. 128 ,
, u
281

(n i)/n. i
, pi 119.
, (126.1).
v
u
u , u
v , (126.1)
.
un i(1 u)i u i(1 u) n i ;

(126.1) , udu
v v + , (119.1)
u = v.
(n i)/n i/n
, = ,
i u.
,
k

exp( x

)dx,


(125.1) ,
.
130.
(127.1) Ui Vi
(121.1). ,
(1 u)/u i/(n + 1 i),
. , , u = 0 ,
u = 1, (n + 1) n
(n i)/n = . ,
(121.1), ,
u n i (1 u )i =

i i ( n i ) n i
exp( 2 ).
nn

[ 128],
u . ,

282

u =+

2i (n i ) 22 (n 2i )

+ ...
n3
3n 2

( 121),
u = 0, 1 , 0 . u 0
, 0. u 1,
0 . ,
(121.1),

du
1
2
exp( x )dx u d +

0
d

U iudu =
0

(n + i ) 2
3 ni ( n i )
1

du

exp( )u d d,
2

U iudu = udu


du
1
2
exp( x )dx u d +

0
d

(n + i ) 2
du
exp( 2 )u d.

d
3 ni (n i ) 0
, ,

u
du/d u,
,
u = .
1/n, ,

u =+

2i (n i ) du
2i (n i )
,
=
, u = .
3
n
d
n3


; ,
. ,
. ,

U iudu =
0

2i ( n i )
2
exp( x )dx d,
3

n
0

283

2i ( n i )
2
U

udu
=

udu

exp(

x
)
dx

d.
i
3

0
n

,
1

U udu = udu.
i

, a a1
u, a < a1 > b b1 ,
u = a a1,
8 ,

U iudu =
a
a1

2i ( n i )
2
exp( x )dx d,
3

n
0

a1

2i (n i ) 1
2
Uiudu = udu n3 0 exp( x )dx d.

, []

U iudu =
a

a1

2i ( n i )
1 1
2
2
b
1 exp( x )dx + exp( b ) ,
3
n
2 2
b

a1

U udu = udu
i

2i ( n i )
1 1
2
2

b
exp(

x
)
dx
+

exp(

b
)

.
1
1

n 3 b1
2 2

(121.1) Ui Vi u
(1 u) ( 118). , u/(1 u)
i/(n + 1 i), . . u = 1 1,
n (n + 1) , = (n i)/n.
, u
0 1 . u
(1 u) 1/n,
[],
284

V udu = udu.
i

, a a1 u,
a < 1 a1 > 1 , b b1
,
(1 u ) n i u i =

i i ( n i ) n i
exp( 2 ),
3
n

u = a a1,
a1

V udu =
i

(1 )

2i ( n i )
1 1
2
2

b
exp(

)
d

exp(

b
)

1
1 ,

n 3 b1
2 2

V udu =
i

a
1

a1

2i (n i )
1 1
2
2

b
d
b
udu (1 )
exp(

exp(

n 3 b
2 2

131. (127.1),
,
1

k udu
Zi =

(131.1)

k udu + (1 k ) udu

, (n i)
n.
= (n i)/n 1/2. , u < 1/2
u ,
(131.1), k
285

, Zi .
(1 u) = u u,
1

udu = (1 u)du = udu

Zi k, .
a = 1 ai = , b
b1 .
c , , c
,
(n i)iin1 = ii(n i)niexp( c2).

Uiudu =
1

2i ( n i )
1
2
2
c
exp( x )dx + exp( c ) ,
3
n
2
c

V udu =
i

(1 )

2i (n i )
1
2
2
c
exp( x )dx + exp( c ) ,
3
n
2
c

, u
1 ,
i/n (n i)/n,

Yi =

k + (1 k )(1 )
1

k udu + (1 k ) udu

2i (n i )
1
2
2
.
c exp( x )dx + exp( c )
3
2

n
c

.
, u , ,
286

1 . a1 = a1 = 1.
b1 = b1 = ,
1

U udu = udu 2
i

V udu = 2 (1 )
i

2i ( n i )
,
n 3

2i ( n i )
.
n 3


(1 ) , ,

2i (n i )
2
2
V

udu
=

(1
)
exp(
c
)
c
exp(
x
)
dx

.
i

c
n 3

Uiudu Viudu 1
1

Yi =

k udu k (1 k )(1 )
2

k udu + (1 k ) udu

= [exp( c 2 ) c exp( x 2 )dx ]


c

2i ( n i )
n 3

, u
u = 1, . . . , a = a = 0,
b = b = , []
1

(1 k ) udu
Yi =

2i (n i )

n 3

k udu + (1 k ) udu

2
= (1 k )(1 ) k[exp( c ) c exp( x 2 )dx ]
c
2

, u u = 0
(1 ), . ., , (1 ).
287

Yi , .
u u < 1/2 ,
Yi ,
.
Yi ,
.
132. n ,

u
,
(n i) i.
, n
.
, ,
, u
u, 1/2 u > 1/2. ,
,
, ,
. ,

udu 0 1, ( 123)
u, uudu,
1/2 3/4, , u > 1/2, u.
u = 0 u < 1/2
u > 1/2, (126.1)
u = 0 1/2. u
,
1

1/2

u (1 u)
i

n i

1/2

du = u n i (1 u )i du,
0

k u n i (1 u )i du
i =

1/2
1

1/2

k u (1 u ) du + (1 k ) u (1 u ) du
n i

1/2

n i


u.
288


. ,
,
, ,
. . , k = 1/2.
1

1/2
n i

(1 u ) du

i = 1/2
, 1 i =
1
n i
i
u (1 u) du
0

n i

(1 u )i du

0
1

.
n i

(1 u ) du

,
,
(n 2i) n,
1 i =

1
n + 1 (n + 1)n
(n + 1)n...( n i + 2)
[1 +
+
+ ... +
]. (132.1)
n +1
2
1
2!
i!


(1816/1886, . 527). (i + 1)
i = 0.
1/2n+1.
k = 1/2 i = 0,

1 i =

1 k
1
(2k 1)(2n +1 1)
=
[1

],
k 2n +1 (2k 1) 2n +1
k 2n +1 (2k 1)

. . , , 1/2n+1 k
.
n = 12; i = 0, 1, 2,
, 5, (132.1)
1/8192, 14/8192, 92/8192, 378/8192, 1093/8192, 2380/8192,

, , ,
12 .
2/7, ,
, ,
, 2/7 ,
289


1/8.
(125.1)
, 1/2.
k = 1/2, l = 1/2 l = 1/2 + ,
1/2 +

u n i (1 u )i du

i = 1/21
n i
i
u (1 u) du
0

, u ,
1/2,
1/2 1/2 + (n i)
i. . i = 0
,
i = [(1/2) + ]n+1 [(1/2) ]n+1.
, , n = 12 = 0.448,
i = 1/2, , u
0.5 0.948. = 1/4, ,
i = 0,
i =

1 n +1
n +1 n
[3 1 +
(3 3) + Cn2+1 (3n 1 32 ) + ...
n +1
4
1
i
n i +1
+ Cn +1 (3
3i )]

, u 1/2 3/4,
1/2, . n = 12 i = 5
0.915 ,
3/4.
133. (132.1) ,
u
, , ,

.
, ( 122).
,
, , 1/2, . .
290

. ,
, , , ,

, 1/2. ,
1/2 1 .

,
, . , ,
, u,
,
u > 1/2, .
, ,
u = 0 u < 1/2, u > 1/2.

, , ,
.
(132.1),
, ,
. -,
, ,

, ,
, ,
, ,
,
.
(n i)
i, i/n ,
(i/n)
. n ,
i ,
(n i) i ( 129). , ,
520 480,
, 480 ,
, ,
520 .
, ,
. , ,
,
, 1000 .
, ,
, ;
291

,
,
,
.
; -
,
,
, .
u, ,
u < 1/2,
.
:

u n
(n i) i
i, (126.1).
, -
, , k
1/2 , ,
,
. ,
,
,
, n
,
n ( 122)
. ,


0 1. , , .
, ,
, .
, , , ,
,
,

. ,
, (117.1, 117.2; 118.1; 119.1, 119.2; 120.1, 120.2),
, k u,
.
.
292

134. , ,
. n
, ,
,
. ai ,
(n i)
i. , i
, n/2.

,

ai/ ( 95).
,
,
. ,

, -

. ,
Ri, ,

,
( 104).

, .
, , ,
, ,
, .
, , ai
, (n i) i
, ai/ ai/
( 109).
, , ,
,
-
.
,
.
,
(n i) i,
(n i) i. bi
.
293

ri, bi/
,
- .
bi ,
bi/ bi/ .
, ,
ai = bi + bi1 + bi2 + + b0,
ai = bi + bi1 + bi2 + + b0,
Ri = ri + ri1 + ri2 + + r0.
,

2
P = 1
exp( x 2 )dx.

112
, ai/ ai/
bi/ bi/ Ri ri
ai
2ai ( ai ) bi
2bi ( bi )
m
,
m
3

(134.1, b)

2ai ( ai ) 2ai( ai)


+
,
3
3

2bi ( bi ) 2bi( bi)


+
.
3
3

(134.1)

(134.1d)



,
ai bi , ai bi .
,
,
.
294

135. 7 , ,
,
Comptes gnraux de l'Administration de la justice criminelle9.
1825 1830- ,
,

5121, 5301, 5287, 5721, 5506, 5068,



6652, 6988, 6929, 7396, 7373, 6962,
7 5 .
7

4037, 4348, 4236, 4551, 4475, 4130,

0.6068, 0.6222, 0.6113, 0.6153, 0.6069, 0.5932.
,

.
6 , a5
: = 42 300, a5 = 25 777.
(134.1)
0.6094 0.00335; , , = 2, = 0.9953
,
R5 0.6094
0.0067.
,

= 20 569, ' = 21 731, a5 = 12 621, a'5 = 13 156,
a5/ = 0.6136, a'5/' = 0.6054, a5/ a'5/' = 0.0082.
(134.1) 0.00671;
= 1.2, 0.00805 = 0.9103,
295

1 = 0.0897. 10
, 0.00805.
0.0082
, , ,
, ,
,
- .
1831 . 7606,
4098. ,
, 8
. ,
= 7606, a4 = 4098, a4/ = 0.5388.
,
, ,
, , b5/
, a4/ a5/, , , 0.5388
0.6094, b5/ = 0.0706.
, , 1825 1830 .
,
10, ,
7 .
Comptes gnraux ,

398, 375, 373, 395, 372
. 1911 ,
.
, .
26 883, [ ]
= 26 883, b5 = 1911 b5/ = 0.0711,
.
b5/ , 1831 .
u k, ,
, .
- ,
,
, ,
, .
296

, Comptes gnraux
.
1832 1833 .
7555 6964.

, 1833
.
. , , 1831
., 8 ,
4105 4448, a4/ = 0.5887 0.5895.
,
, , 05888, a4/ = 0.5388 1831 .
0.05 1/10 . ,
,
, (134.1)
.
, 1832 .
:
. O
,
.
136. ,
,
.
, ,
, ,

, .
.
1825 1830 .
802, 824, 675, 868, 908, 804,

567, 527, 436, 559, 604, 484,

0.7070, 0.6396, 0.6459, 0.6440, 0.6652, 0.6020.

297

a5
, = 4881, a5 = 3177, a5/ = 0.6509.

42 300 25 779, ,
0.6094
[= 25 779:42 300]. [0.6509]
0.0416 1/15 . ,
(134.1)
, -

, . ?
.
- , ,
1/36 ,
1/9
, . .
.
,
11.
a5 (134.1)
0.6509 0.00965 , = 2, = 0.99532,
1 = 0.00468. , 200
, R5 0.6509 0.0193
.
, , 0.6020,
.
,
,
1830 . ,
. , a5

1825 1829 ., ' a'5 1830 .,

= 4077, a5 = 2693, = 804, a5 = 484,
a5/ = 0.6605, a5/ = 0.6019, a5/ a5/ = 0.0585.
(134.1) 0.02657; , = 2,
200 , ,
a5/ a5/ 0.05314.
1/10 ,
,
298

- . ,
, 1830 . ,
,
,
0.59
0.61 5 .
1826 1830 .
2963. 194
,
[].
194/2963 b5/, b5/ = 0.0655, . . ,
.
137. , Comptes gnraux,
,
,
,

. Comptes
,
.
, , ,
. .
1825 1830 .

1897, 1907, 1911, 1844, 1791, 1666;


4755, 5081, 5018, 5552, 5582, 5296.


882, 967, 948, 871, 834, 766;
3155, 3381, 3288, 3680, 3641, 3364,
:
0.4649, 0.5071, 0.4961, 0.4723, 0.4657, 0.4598;
0.6635, 0.6654, 0.6552, 0.6628, 0.6523, 0.6352.
,
, .
299

a5 a5 , ,

,
= 11 016, a5 = 5268, = 31 284, a5 = 20 509,
a5/ = 0.4782, a5/ = 0.6556.
,
. , ,
(134.1) R5

0.4782 0.00675 0.6556 0.00380.


, = 2 ,
, R5
0.4782 , 0.0135, 0.6556 ,
0.0076.
1831 . ,
8 . , , ,
= 2046, a4 = 743, = 5560, a4 = 3355,
a4/ = 0.3631, a4/ = 0.6034.

,
7 b5/ = 0.1151
b5/ = 0.0522. , ,
,
, , , a5/
a5/.
,
,
.

. 0.18
. 1826 1830 .
,
, , , a5
a5,
= 1305, = 5465, a5 = 586, a5 = 3312,
300

a5/ = 0.4490, a5/ = 0.6061.


a5/ a5/
, , 1/16 1/12
.
1832 1833 .,
, 8 ,
,

= 4108, = 10 421, a4 = 1889, a4 = 6664,
a4/ = 0.4598, a4/ = 0.6395.
,
. = 2 (134.1) ,
, , R5
0.4598 , 0.022 0.6395 ,
0.0133 . ,
a4/ a4/
a5/ a5/'. a4/ a4/
1831 ., ,
a4/
1/15,
, a4/,
.
138. 122 ,
,
,
.
, (n i) i,
(118.1),
(n i) i (117.1).

ci i, ,
, ai/ bi/

. ,
,
, ci i Ri
ri ( 134).
, ,
,
301

,
. ,
, ,
,
, 5/6
.
ai/ = ci, bi/ = i, a'i/' = c'i, b'i/' = 'i,

(138.1, b, , d)

,
.
(138.1)
, ,
k u,
ci i k u ci i.

(138.1)
. ,
u, u, k, k
,
, .
u u, ,
, ,

.
k k,
, ,
, ,
. ,
(138.1) ,
,
. ,
u, u,
k, k
, - .
ci i k u (1 k)
(1 u) ( 117 118). , ai/ bi/
k u, , 1/2,
(138.1, b) k u,
, , 1/2.
, ,

302


1/2. , k u,
, 1/2 ,
.
(138.1, d)
k . ,

, ,
, 12 , ,
, 1/2,

,
.
139. (117.1) (118.1) n = 12 i = 5.
:
N0 = 1, N1 = 12, N2 = 66, N3 = 220, N4 = 495, N5 = 792.
,
a5
b
t
1
= c, 5 = 792, u =
, 1 u =

1+ t
1+ t
(138.1b)

(t 2 + 1)t 5 (2k 1)(t 2 1)t 5


=
.
+
2(1 + t )12
2(1 + t )12

(139.1)

,
U5 = 1 924u6(1 u)6 V5,
(138.1)

924t 6
c = k [1
]
(1 + t )12
(2k 1)
[1 + 12t + 66t 2 + 220t 3 + 495t 4 + 792t 5 ].
12
(1 + t )

(139.2)

303

(139.1) (139.2)
.

c, , k, t c', ', k', t'. t
t = 0 , u = 0 1. t > 1
u > 1/2, - . ,
k 1/2 1,
, . (139.1), t ,

>

(t 2 + 1)t 5
t7
,

<
.
2(1 + t )12
(1 + t )12

(139.3, b)

.
, t
t = 0 ,
t = 1 7/5, t = .
k (139.1) (139.2),
24- t,
12- ,
k u,
(139.1) (139.2),
.
140. 1825 1830 .
c = 0.4782, = 0.1151/792 = 0.0001453.
t = 2 (139.3) ,
t = 3 t. t
. ,

.
2.112, (139.1)
k = 0.5354.
(139.2), , 0.4783,
0.0001.

k = 0.5354, t = 2.112.

c = 0.6556, = 0.0523/792 = 0.00006604.
304

c (139.1)
(139.2) t k t k.
, ,
k = 0.6744, t = 3.4865,

u=

t
t
= 0.6786, u =
= 0.7771
1+ t
1 + t

-

.
-,
, ,
,

,
.
- -,
, u u,
, ,
, . ,
,
, k k
,
,
.
,
.

, ,
,
c = 0.6094, = 0.0706/792 = 0.00008914.
(139.1) (139.2), ,
k = 0.6391, t = 2.99, u = 0.7494.
305

,
c ( 136)
c = 0.6509, = 0.0655/792 = 0.00008267,

k = 0.678, t = 3.168, u = 0.7778.
, ,
k u ,
2/3 3/4.
,
, ,
,
.
, ,
,
.
, , 1831 . k
u k u ,
,
. a4/ a4/
1832 1833 .,
u k u k. ,
,
,
, [!]
.
u k u k
1831 . , ,
7 , ,
,
. Comptes gnraux
, ,

; ,
,
,
,
u k ,
, .
306

141. u k, (117.1, 117.2, 118.1)



,
. n = 12 i = 0
0 = ku12 + (1 k)(1 u)12, 0 = (1 k)u12 + k(1 u)12

,
0 + 0 = u12 + (1 u)12
. ,
0 0 = (2k 1)[u12 (1 u)12]
k > 1/2 u > 1 u,
,
. u
0 1,
. , , u k
, . . ,
k = 0.6391 u = 0.7494,
0 = 0.021, 0 = 0.013, 0 + 0 = 0.0314.
, ,
12 .
, ,
0 + 0 32
, .

,
32 33.
M ,
, ,
M = (1 0 0) ,
, M = 1/2, ,
0 + 0
307

lg 2
= 21.73.
lg(1 0 0 )

,
,
22 .
21 .
142. , , ,
2 ,
,
.
, , ,
, , .
, , ,
.
,
, ,
, , .
1/2, , ,
, ,
.
,
. Pi
Qi ( 120)
, ,
.
, Pi
, , , Qi
.
, , ,
Pi Qi,

. , Pi Qi
;
, ,
, 12 .
ci - ,
k ( 118) , ,
Pi. , di
(1 k), Qi.

,
308

z,
. u
,
, , ,
z .
u
,
z, . .

. ,
,
. , u ,
z.
,
, ,
. ,
, ,
0.54 0.59 ( 135),
, , [?],
,
z, .
, ,
, k.
k 3/4,

, -,
, . Pi
k; , k
,
.
, ,
u , -
. , k
z
, ,
, u.
.
1814 1830 . 12
,
3 . 1830 .
, 1831 . ,
,
309


.
.
Comptes de ladministration de la justice criminelle
, []
, , 1832 1834 .
59, 60 61 . ,
1830
. Comptes
7 ,
- ,
[?] u
k . , , . . ,
a5/, ,
, b5/
, , , u
k . ,
k 0.64,

.
Comptes , 1826 1829 .
84, 85, 83 81 ,
0.83. ,
118, ,
, , k. ,
k , 1832
1833 .
z , . . ,
,
.
u , , . .
, .
-
.
k z,

.

,
z. , ,
,
.
310

z k , 1832 1833 .

,
, k, , ,
u k
u. ,
, ,
, ,
, , ,
,
.
143. (120.1)
(120.2) u k u' k'
;
, , ,
,
.
, ,
, []
.
(118.1) (120.1)

Pici = kUi,
ci
ai/. (1 Pi)
, , (n i)
i, ; ci ,
, ,
. , ci(1 Pi)
.
Di
(118.1),
Di = (1 k)Vi.
,
120, Pi.
, ,

311

(n i), i ,
, Qi (120.2)
i (n i 1). (118.1b), ,
idni1 = (1 k)U ni1,
, , 118
i(1 ci) = (1 k)(1 Vi).
, ,
(1 i),
(1 ci). , (1 i)(1 ci)

. i,
i = 1 ci (1 k)(1 Vi)
, (118.1),
i = k(1 Ui).
Di i , ,
, ,
.

, Di Pi
i Qi
. Pi i Di
i,
Di = 1 k i(1 ci), i = k Pici,
, i Di
k (1 k) .

, , ai ( ai).

Diai i( ai).
n = 12 i = 5 4, a5/ a4/
c5 c4 , , t/(1 + t) 1/(1 + t)
u (1 u),
312

924t 6
924t 6 + 792t 7
a5
a4
P5 = k ( +
),
P
=
k
(

+
),
4

(1 + t )12

(1 + t )12
[1

a5
a
792t 5
] 5 = (1 k ), [1 4 ] 4 = (1 k )(
),

(1 + t )12

= [1

1 + 12t + 66t 2 + 220t 3 + 495t 4 + 792t 5


].
(1 + t )12


D5 = 1 k (1 a5/)5, 5 = k (a5/)P5,
D4 = 1 k (1 a4/)4, 4 = k (a4/)P4.
, [ ]
.
. ,
,
.
144. 1831 . ,
, 8 ,
.
(a4/) = 0.3632, t = 2.112, k = 0.5354,
,
P4 = 0.9811, 4 = 0.7186, D4 = 0.00689, 4 = 0.1791.
743 5,
D4, , 4 ,
233 1303
. ,
, 1/150, ,
, 1/6 1/5.
, 1/50
, , . .
, 2/3.
.

313

(a'4/') = 0.6034, t' = 3.4865, k' = 0.6744



P'4 = 0.9981, '4 = 0.8199, D'4 = 0.0004, '4 = 0.0721.

4 10 000, . .
3355 . ,
, 7/100,
159 2205 .
, 2/1000,
4/5.
, ,
,
, ,

( 141).
P4, P'4, ,
, a4/, a'4/', b4/, b'4/',

t, t', k, k'. , ,
,
t k t' k',
,
.
, 1831 .,
7 ,
[],
,
, ,
.
,
, ,
8 .
P4 P'4, 4 '4, D4 D'4, 4 '4
, 1831 .,
t k t' k' ( 137).
, 1825 1830 . 5000
, , 8
, 20 000
.
314

D4 D'4, 35 8
. , ,
, ,
.
,
7 ,
, , (119.1)
n = 12, i = 5, u = t/(1 + t), 1 u = 1/(1 + t),
p5 =

kt 2
.
kt 2 + 1 k

, , t = 2.112, k =
0.5354 p5 = 0.8372.
, p5, k, t p5, k, t ,
, t = 3.4865, k = 0.6744, p5 = 0.9618.
, ,
k = 0.6391 t = 2.99
( 140). w5 p5
, w5 = 0.9406.
p5, p5, w5,
16, 4 6
. ( 132)

0.29, . . (1 p5)
(1 w5). ,
(1 w5) ,

, 3 .
, , ,
140, k u k u,
,
P5, 5, D5, 5 P5,
5, D5, 5 P4, 4, D4, 4 P4,
4, D4, 4, 1831 .
, ,

, ,
.
,
138, k u
k u, 1/2
315

. , , ,
1831 . k = 0.6744,
u = 0.7771,
,
k = 1 0.6744 = 0.3256, u = 1 0.7771 = 0.2229.
u (1 u) t
1/t, t = 1/3.4865 = 0.2868. a4/ =
0.6034, , P4 = 0.000675,
,
. , 138,
k u k u,
.
, ,

,
, .
145. (118.1) n = 5, i = 2, u = t/(1 + t),
1 u = 1/(1 + t), , ,

, 3 ,

c2 = k

(2k 1)(1 + 5t + 10t 2 )


.
(1 + t )5

, , k
, u ,
. (120.1)

c2 P2 = k [1

1 + 5t + 10t 2
]
(1 + t )5

, ,
(2k 1)c2P2 = k(k 1 + c2)
P2
.
,
7
316

, 1831 . k
,
;
c2
, .
Comptes gnraux , 1826
1830 . 1911
7 .
1597 , Comptes
,
, P2 t
. , 2 = 1597/1911 = 0.8357.
w5 144 k, . . , k = 0.9406
, ( 118), c2
, , P2 = 0.9916.
, ,
7 , ,
, ,
1/100, 1597
, 15 .
k c2
k c2
= 0.1188,
2k 1
, t,

1 + 5t + 10t2 = 0.1188(1 + t)5,
t = 2.789, u = 0.7361. , u
140
0.7494
13.
146. ,
,
, , ,
.
,
,
.
317

Comptes gnraux de ladministration de la justice criminelle


, .
1825 1833 .
1 710 174 . 1 464 500
, . . 0.8563 .
0.84 0.87.

, ,
. ,
. n = 3 i = 1
(118.1), , t/(1 + t)
u,

c1 =

k (t 3 + 3t 2 ) + (1 k )(3t + 1)
.
(1 + t )3


c1 = 0.8563,
, k t. , ,
, 1 464 500
, 2
. , , Comptes gnraux .
,
, , 3/4,
c1 = 0.8563 t = 3, k
, , .
, , ,
, .
,
, , 5 .
c2
(118.1) n = 7 i = 2 u t/(1 + t).
,

c2 =

k (t 7 + 7t 6 + 21t 5 ) + (1 k )(1 + 7t + 21t 2 )


.
(1 + t )7

Comptes gnraux de ladministration de la justice militaire,


,
2/3. ,

318

c2. ,
, .
,
,
3/4, t = 3 c2 = 2/3,
, k = 0.8793, (1 k) = 0.1207.
, ,
, .
(120.1) (118.1)
(1 + t)7c2P2 = k(t7 + 7t6 + 21t5)
P2
. c2, t, k ,
P2 = 0.9976. ,
.
t u,
,
.
, ,
2/3,

. , ,
-
.
147. ,
.
,
. ,
,
. .
,
,
. ,
, . .
, .

; , , ,
,
.
,
, , ,
319

,
. ,
, ,
.
,
: ,
k, ,
,
.
,
,

. , k,
,
,
.
148.
, , . u, u u
c .
,
, .
uuu (1 u)(1 u)(1 u),
c
c = uuu + (1 u)(1 u)(1 u).

[ ],
, . ,
, .
, . . ,
uuu, ,
(1 u)(1 u)(1 u), .
( 28),
, ,

p=

uuu
,
uuu + (1 u )(1 u)(1 u)

, , cp = uuu.
320

,
, .
a, a a ,
, ,
, , .
a = uu(1 u) + u(1 u)(1 u),
a = uu(1 u) + u'(1 u)(1 u),
a = uu (1 u) + u(1 u)(1 u).
, , ,
,
. b
- .

b = a + a + a,
, ,
b + c = 1, . ,
b = 1 uuu (1 u)(1 u)(1 u).
, ,
, ,
, ,
. q
,

bq = (1 u)uu + (1 u)uu + (1 u)uu.
, ,
, , ,
, ,
, , ,
, , , .
,

/ = c, / =b, / = a, / = a, / = a.
321

, , , b a, a
a [. ]. ,
, 5
. , ,
, , ,
, u, u,
u, c
. ,

. u, u, u ,
p q

.
, ,
, , , , ,
u = 4/5, u = 3/5 u = 3/5
,
, ,
,
, . c = 8/25 b = 17/25
p = 9/10 q = 57/85. 17
,
9 57 28
.

(u + u + u)/3 = 2/3.
, 2/3, u, u,
u, ,
c = 1/3, b = 2/3, p = 8/9, q = 2/3.
p q ,

, . ,
, c ,
b ,
,
.
,
,
q.
r,
322

r = uuu + (1 u) uu + (1 u) uu+ (1 u) uu,


,
, ,
4 .

(1 u)(1 u)(1 u) + u(1 u)(1 u) +


u(1 u)(1 u) + u(1 u)(1 u).

, r,
28, . , ,
,
r = cp + bq.
u, u, u, ,
r = 93/125. 2/3
r = 20/27 [19/27]. r
, ,
,
.
149.
, ,

,
.
, ,
,
c = u3 + (1 u)3, b = 1 u3 (1 u)3, cp = u3,
bq = 3(1 u)u2, r = u3 + 3(1 u)u2.
, , c b
/ /,
u.

, . ,
, , = ,
323

u3 + (1 u)3 = 1 3u + 3u2 = 1/2



u = [1 3/3]/2.
u 1/2,
. ,
, ,
, u = 0.7888,
p = 0.9815, q = 0.7885, r = 0.8850.
, ,
, ,
, v.

, , 4
. (118.1) k u
r v n = 7 i = 3:
C = r[v7 + 7v6(1 v) + 21v5(1 v)2 + 35v4(1 v)3] +
(1 r)[(1 v)7 + 7v(1 v)6 + 21v2(1 v)5 + 35v3(1 v)4].
,
, ,
, 1, 2 3.

,
r,
. , (1 r),
, ,
,
. , ,
,
,
C = (1 r)[v7 + 7v6(1 v) + 21v5(1 v)2 + 35v4(1 v)3] +
r[(1 v)7 + 7v(1 v)6 + 21v2(1 v)5 + 35v3(1 v)4].

324


, + = 1. ,
,
[v + (1 v)]7 = 1. , r = 1/2
v, v = 1/2 r
, = = 1/2.
.

,
, ,
, .
,
, ,
.

,
, (1 ) ,
.
, [?]
,
,
w
. r
v w,
= 2 + (1 )2, = 2(1 ).
+ = 1.

=

r C
r C
, 1 =
.
2r 1
2r 1


,
, ,
. ,
,
,
, . . ,
,
325


, .
CP = r[v7 + 7v6(1 v) + 21v5(1 v)2 + 35v4(1 v)3].
, CP C,
, , (120.1)
(120.2), k = r, n = 7, i = 3.
:
CP = r, CP = (1 r).

150.
, ,
, .
, - .
r u,
, u v,
. ,
,
, .
,

, u v, -.
, v = u, . .
.

m , , m
. m/
,
,
C=

m
t
1
, v = u, u =
, 1 u =
.

1+ t
1+ t

m
(2r 1)(1 + 7t + 21t 2 + 35t 3 )
=r
,

(1 + t )7
1 + 3t
2(1 + 3t )
r = 1
, 2r 1 = 1
.
3
(1 + t )
(1 + t )3
326

m/,
10- t, u.
v = u , u r
(1 u) (1 r), t 1/t. ,
t, ,
m/,
t > 1. t
t 1/t.
t > 1,
u > 1/2, . . ,
,
.
151. 1831 . 1832 1833
. Compte gnraux de
l'administration de la justice civile
m
m . ,

, t.
,
, u
. t
m m .
1831 . 1832 1833 .

m = 976, 5301 5470; m = 388, 2405 2617;


m/ = 0.7155, 0.6879, 0.6764
, ,
, 1/70 ,

14. m ,
,
m = 11 747, = 17 157, m/ = 0.6847.

m = 2510, = 3297, m/ = 0.7613.
327

m/ 1/9
.
0.6847, ,
t = 2.157, u = 0.6832, r = 0.7626.
r, ,
,
,
. , u
0.6788
1832 ., . . ,
.
r m/ ( m)/
, 150 ,

= 0.9479, = 0.6409, = 0.7466,


, 19 ,
,
, ,
.
,
,
, 3/4.
, , :
rp = 0.6495, (1 r) = 0.2022,
r(1 ) = 0.1131, (1 r)(1 )=0.0352.
, ,
, ,
; ,
; , ;
.

328


1. , ,
, 1834 . ,
, ,
, .
2. .
,
.
(. 34) ,

.
3. .
4. . . 7 .
5. , (121.1) (121.2)..
6.
.
7. !
8. . . 121.
9. .
10. ,
, .
11. .
.
12.
(Sheynin 1986, . 302 303).
, , , 1846 . ,
. , ,
1833 . ; , ,
, .
1832 .
, .
, 142, ,
, ,
.
13. t = 2.789, ,
91.73, 92.78.
14.
m/ 1824 .

Laplace P. S. (1816), Supplment premier to Thor. Anal. Prob. Oeuvr. Compl., t.


7, No. 2. Paris, 1886, pp. 281 320.
Sheynin O. B. (1986), A. Quetelet as a statistician. Arch. Hist. Ex. Sci., vol. 36,
pp. 281 325.

329

330