Notes on the Futures Report and the Cuts Report: A preliminary update

by Henning Bohn

Funding Measure:
• State GF adjusted for capital lease and lottery funds.

Several Scenarios:
• Benchmark
• Compact
• Restore 2001 Pathway:
• Modified Master Plan:
• Funding Freeze
Constant share state personal income as in 2001-02
Funding promised under compact with governor.
Return to benchmark within 5 years.
Return to 1990 share of state personal income in 5 years.
Funding constant in nominal terms

Current Version:
• Update actual data to 2009-10; Regent’s budget for 2010-11.
• Consider the same alternatives.
 State Funds for Operations in Nominal $: Where do we stand?

7,000

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000
2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11
Year

Benchmark 1. Compact 2. Restore 2001 Pathway

3. Modified Master Plan (1990 Pathway) 4. Funding Freeze $2.7b 5. Cuts report secenario
6. Nov.09 Update Target for 2010-11
 State Funding to UC in percent of State Personal Income

0.40%

0.30%

0.20%

0.10%

0.00%
2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11

Benchmark 1. Compact
2. Restore 2001 Pathway 3. Modified Master Plan (1990 Pathway)
4. Funding Freeze Update Nov 2009
 State Funds for Operations in Nominal $: Updated Futures Report Scenarios

6,000

5,000

4,000

3,000

2,000
2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009- 2010- 2011- 2012- 2013- 2014-
10 11 12 13 14 15
Year

Benchmark Update Nov 2009 Target for 2010-11

Compact Restore 2001 Pathway Modified Master Plan (1990 Pathway)
Funding Freeze $2.7b Funding Freeze $2.4b
 State Funding to UC in percent of State Personal Income

0.40%

0.30%

0.20%

0.10%

0.00%
2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-5 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

Benchmark Compact
Update Nov 2009 Restore 2001 Pathway
Modified Master Plan (1990 Pathway) Funding Freeze $2.7b
Funding Freeze $2.4b