You are on page 1of 2

Discounted Cash Flow Analysis

(in US$ millions)


Period Ending January 31

Actuals
2010A

2011A

Es
2012A

2013E

Unlevered Free Cash Flow


EBIT

27,888.4

Depreciation & Amortization

8,591.7

Deferred Taxes

715.9

Other

318.0

Changes in Working Capital

891.3

Capital Expenditures

(14,213.0)

Taxes

(9,203.2)

Total Unlevered Free Cash Flow

14,989.1

Net Present Value Calulation


Period

1.0

Discounted Cash Flow

5.16%

Total Net Present Value

67,814.7

Terminal Value
EBITDA Method
Exit Year EBITDA
Multiple
Terminal Value
Net Present Value
Perpetuity Method
Unlevered Free Cash Flow
Growth Rate

41,851.9
8.7x
362,181.9
281,669.1
16,308.9
1%

Terminal Value
Net Present Value
Discounted Cash Flow Total Valuation
Total of Present Value of Cash Flows
Present Value of Terminal Value
Total Enterprise Value
Net Debt, Non-controlling interests, preferred securities
Equity Value
Share Count (millions)
Estimated Equity Value per Share

14,254.1

396,263.5
308,174.4
EBITDA Method
67,814.7
281,669.1
349,483.8
51,727.0
297,756.8
3,365.7
$88.47

Perpetuity Method
67,814.7
308,174.4
375,989.1
51,727.0
324,262.1
3,365.7
$96.34

Estimates
2014E

2015E

2016E

2017E

29,115.5

30,026.8

30,582.4

30,750.8

9,188.6

9,809.4

10,448.9

11,101.1

1,003.5

791.0

596.3

411.4

318.0

318.0

318.0

318.0

423.2
(14,923.7)

352.8

271.3

181.3

(15,520.6)

(15,986.2)

(16,305.9)

(9,608.1)

(9,908.8)

(10,092.2)

(10,147.8)

15,517.0

15,868.5

16,138.5

16,308.9

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

14,032.4

13,646.6

13,198.2

12,683.5

Cost of Capital
Risk Free Rate
Market Risk Premium
Beta
Cost of Equity
Cost of Debt
WACC

2.93%
6.00%
0.42
5.45%
5.625%
5.16%

Debt YE 2012
Stock Price
Shares Outstanding
Equity Value

53,427
73.82
3,366
248,459.0