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1999

2001
2004
2004

2009


2001 2005
2005 /

2000
- S7
( )

, ..


34
16

..

..

B. Vasigh, T. Tacker, K. Fleming Introduction
to air transport economics: from theory to
applications




komaristiy.ru/stud


If you want to be a millionaire,
start with a billion dollars and open
an airline. Soon enough you will be
a millionaire.
Sir Richard Branson,
Founder,
Virgin Atlantic Airways

= +
+


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,

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1% 2%.
2% 4% ..


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T
P
R
N
Q
O
W

7 500
6 210
6 000
5 000
4 500
4 000
3 400

5
5
21
41
6
56
82


5
10
31
72
78
134
216

D = f(P, P, Y, H)
D (demand)
P (price)
P -
Y (yield)
H
(, .)

D = Q aP
D
P
Q

P = 6 565 17D
D = (6 565 P)/17

?
D = (6 565 6000)/17 = 33

6000 x 33 = 198 .

6000

D = (6 565 P)/17

198
33

?
D = (6 565 4000)/17 = 150

4000 x 150 = 600 .

6000

D = (6 565 P)/17

4000

198

600
33

150

?
D = (6 565 2000)/17 = 268

2000 x 268 = 536 .

6000

D = (6 565 P)/17

4000

2000

198

600
33

150

536

268

6 000
5 500
5 000
4 500
4 000
3 500
3 000
2 500
2 000
1 500
1 000
500

33
62
92
121
150
180
209
239
268
297
327
356

198
341
460
545
600
630
627
598
536
446
327
178

?
= P D
D = f(P) = (6 565 P)/17
= P f(P) = P x (6 565 P)/17
= 386P P2/17

386 2P/17 = 0
P = (386 x 17)/2 = 3 281 .
= 386P P2/17 = 633 . .

:)


4000
150

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*
Fuel Cost per ASM
Maintenance osts per ASM

Crew Costs per ASM


Other Operating Costs per ASM
Non Operating Costs per ASM

* Introduction to air transport economics

S7
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)

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(break-even)
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QB.. =

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V
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:
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- $180

- $211
: $30,28/(1-180/211)
= $206 . (976 . .)

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(, , ,
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- $19

- $211
: $17 350/(1-19/211) =
$19 967 (90 ., 70% 319
128 )

102 .
100
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2 .
98 .

4 .

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(degree of
operating leverage DOL).


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(), %
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DOL =

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S VC

DOL =

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V (
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VC
Q
P ()
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.

DOL Q. =

Q(P-V)

Q(P-V)-FC

Q-QB.E.

DOL 120 =

DOL 100 =

120

120-90
100

100-90

=4

= 10

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50 , 10
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80%,
50%.
1 ? 3 ?

5 ? 10 ?

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: 1
51
, 11 .

80%*50/51 = 78,4%

10
1,6%
11-
78,4% - 10*1,6% = 62,4%
. !

: 2
52
, 12 .

78,4%*51/52 = 76,9%

11
1,5%

76,9% - 11*1,5% = 60,4%
. !

: 2 (2)
52
, 12 .

80%*50/52 = 76,9%


76,9% - 12*(80%*(50/5151/52))/2 = 60,4%
. !

: N

80%*50/(50+N)

N
:
80%*50/(50+N) (10+N)*80%*

50

(50+N-1)

(50+N-1) (50+N)

/N


,
.

0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

80
78
77
75
74
73
71
70
69
68
67
66
65
63
63
62
61
60
59
58
57


800
863
923
981
1 037
1 091
1 143
1 193
1 241
1 288
1 333
1 377
1 419
1 460
1 500
1 538
1 576
1 612
1 647
1 681
1 714

0
2 843
5 385
7 642
9 630
11 364
12 857
14 123
15 172
16 017
16 667
17 131
17 419
17 540
17 500
17 308
16 970
16 493
15 882
15 145
14 286


10

30 000
30 000
28 431
31 275
26 923
32 308
25 472
33 113
24 074
33 704
22 727
34 091
21 429
34 286
20 175
34 298
18 966
34 138
17 797
33 814
16 667
33 333
15 574
32 705
14 516
31 935
13 492
31 032
12 500
30 000
11 538
28 846
10 606
27 576
9 701
26 194
8 824
24 706
7 971
23 116
7 143
21 429

91 97.

2:


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2:
:
D = 18 000 2P
250 . .
600 . .
100 .
500 .

2:



-100%
-50%
0%
20%
50%
100%
200%

-50%
0%
20%
50%
100%
200%

max
100%
90%
80%
60%
40%
20%
0%

2:
100 . .

1/10
.

80%, 100 .

8%, .. 88%. 200 .
16%, .. 96%.

2:
= 0,4* + 0,6*
= *2
=

2
, .

.

: 1

: 1

: 1

: 1

: 1

: 1

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500
500
( Boeing 747-400)
100 (
Boeing 737-500)?
VC
FC


LED

TOF
MOW

OVB

BAX
AER

TC

VC
TC

VC

FC

AFC

AVC

AFC

ATC

AVC

AFC

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MC

ATC

AVC

AFC


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(,
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MC (Marginal Costs )
MR (Marginal Revenue )
MC = +
.

MR = .

MR

MR

MC

MR=MC

MR



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(
) (
) .


MCsystem

MCindividual

MR

?
: Q = 18 000 2P
: 18 000 2P = 0
P = 18 000 / 2 = 9 000

P = P = 4 500
Q = 18 000 2*4 500 = 9000



:
()

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MR

MC

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MR




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MR2
MR1

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MR2

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20

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21

150%

100%

75%

50%


3
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Y=50

M=150
,
300

W=100

Y=300

M=150

W=100

Y=300

M=250

W=100


100%

, (no-show, go-show),

EMSR-

(Expected Marginal Seat Revenue)

,

n :
EMSRi = fiP(Si)
fi - i- ( )
P(Si) - , i-
S

(overbooking)

100%

(no-show,
go-show)

(overbooking)
:
(no-show, goshow)




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7%

12%

15%