t

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17

Set 1
Demand
10
18
29
15
30
12
16
8
22
14
15
27
30
23
15
20

3 MA

19.00
20.67
24.67
19.00
19.33
12.00
15.33
14.67
17.00
18.67
24.00
26.67
22.67
19.33

4 MA

18.00
23.00
21.50 35
18.25 30
16.50
14.50 25
15.00 20
14.75
15
19.50
21.50 10
23.75 5
23.75
22.00 0

5 MA

20.40
20.80
20.40
16.20
17.60
14.40
15.00
17.20
21.60
21.80
22.00
23.00

3 MA
Error

-4.00
9.33
-12.67
-3.00
-11.33
10.00
-1.33
0.33
10.00
11.33
-1.00
-11.67
-2.67
5

4 MA
Error

5 MA
Error

12.00
-11.00
-5.50
-10.25
5.50
-0.50
0.00
12.25
10.50
1.50
-8.75
-3.75

Demand
-8.40

10

-4.80
-12.40
5.80
-3.60
0.60
12.00
12.80
1.40
-6.80
-2.00

3 MA
4 MA
5 MA
ABS Error ABS Error ABS Error

Demand

4.00
9.33
12.67
3.00
11.33
10.00
1.33
0.33
10.00
11.33
1.00
11.67
2.67
15

12.00
11.00
5.50
10.25
5.50
0.50
0.00
12.25
10.50
1.50
8.75
3.75
20

8.40
4.80
12.40
5.80
3.60
0.60
12.00
Demand
12.80
1.40
6.80
2.00

10%
10
10
11
13
13
15
14
14
14
15
15
15
16
17
18
18
18

Exponential
30%
10
10
12
17
17
21
18
17
15
17
16
16
19
22
23
20
20

50%
10
10
14
22
18
24
18
17
13
17
16
15
21
26
24
20
20

0
8
18
2
17
-3
2
-6
8
-1
0
12
14
6
-3
2

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.979477
R Square
0.959375
Adjusted R Square
0.956473
Standard Error10.8732
Observations
16
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
1 39087.27 39087.27 330.6132
3.9E-11
14 1655.172 118.2266
15 40742.44

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept
315.675 5.701957 55.36258 8.43E-18 303.4455 327.9045 303.4455 327.9045
X Variable 1 10.72206 0.589682 18.18277
3.9E-11 9.457316 11.9868 9.457316 11.9868

Upper 95.0%

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.979477
R Square
0.959375
Adjusted R Square
0.956473
Standard Error10.8732
Observations
16
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
1 39087.27 39087.27 330.6132
3.9E-11
14 1655.172 118.2266
15 40742.44

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept
315.675 5.701957 55.36258 8.43E-18 303.4455 327.9045 303.4455 327.9045
X Variable 1 10.72206 0.589682 18.18277
3.9E-11 9.457316 11.9868 9.457316 11.9868

Upper 95.0%

t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17

Set 2
Demand Forecast
328
326
310
337
355
348
362
359
375
369
380
380
408
391
415
401
417
412
412
423
429
434
434
444
449
455
471
466
475
476
489
487
498
Bias
MAD

2
-27
7
3
6
0
17
14
5
-11
-5
-10
-6
5
-1
2

2
27
7
3
6
0
17 600
14
500
5
11 400
5
10 300
6
200
5
1 100
2

Demand
y = 10.722x + 315.68

0.0625
7.5625

10

15

Demand

22x + 315.68

Demand
Linear (Demand)

15

20

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.229458
R Square
0.052651
Adjusted R Square
-0.04208
Standard Error
257.3777
Observations
12
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
1 36816.3 36816.3 0.555774 0.473127
10 662432.6 66243.26
11 699248.9

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept 109.7879 158.405 0.693083 0.504035
-243.16 462.7362
-243.16 462.7362
X Variable 1 16.04545
21.523 0.745503 0.473127 -31.9108 64.00169 -31.9108 64.00169

Upper 95.0%

t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

Set 3
Demand
6
55
249
646
24
73
140
569
12
28
136
631

0.03
0.23
1.04
2.70
0.12
0.36
0.69
2.82
0.06
0.14
0.67
3.13

0.07
0.24
0.8
2.88
0.07
0.24
0.8
2.88
0.07
0.24
0.8
2.88

85.71
229.17
311.25
224.31
342.86
304.17
175.00
197.57
171.43
116.67
170.00
219.10

86.00
229.00
311.00
224.00
343.00
304.00
175.00
198.00
171.00
117.00
170.00
219.00

14.91
51.12
170.4
613.44
14.91
51.12
170.4
613.44
14.91
51.12
170.4
613.44

700
600
500
400
300

Series1

200
100
0
0
-100

10

12

14

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.452292
R Square
0.204568
Adjusted R Square
0.147751
Standard Error
295.4573
Observations
16
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
1 314305.6 314305.6 3.600499 0.07858
14 1222130 87295.02
15 1536436

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept
135 154.9391 0.87131 0.398281 -197.311 467.3114 -197.311 467.3114
X Variable 1 30.40441 16.02342 1.897498 0.07858 -3.96241 64.77123 -3.96241 64.77123

Upper 95.0%

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.452292
R Square
0.204568
Adjusted R Square
0.147751
Standard Error
295.4573
Observations
16
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
1 314305.6 314305.6 3.600499 0.07858
14 1222130 87295.02
15 1536436

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept
135 154.9391 0.87131 0.398281 -197.311 467.3114 -197.311 467.3114
X Variable 1 30.40441 16.02342 1.897498 0.07858 -3.96241 64.77123 -3.96241 64.77123

Upper 95.0%

SUMMARY OUTPUT
Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.452292
R Square
0.204568
Adjusted R Square
0.147751
Standard Error
295.4573
Observations
16
ANOVA
df
Regression
Residual
Total

SS
MS
F
Significance F
1 314305.6 314305.6 3.600499 0.07858
14 1222130 87295.02
15 1536436

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat
P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Intercept
135 154.9391 0.87131 0.398281 -197.311 467.3114 -197.311 467.3114
X Variable 1 30.40441 16.02342 1.897498 0.07858 -3.96241 64.77123 -3.96241 64.77123

Upper 95.0%

Period t
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20

Demand
45
335
520
100
70
370
590
170
100
585
830
285
100
725
1160
310

Deseasonalized Seasonal
Demand
factor
165.4
0.27
195.8
1.71
226.2
2.30
256.6
0.39
287
0.24
317.4
1.17
347.8
1.70
378.2
0.45
408.6
0.24
439
1.33
469.4
1.77
499.8
0.57
530.2
0.19
560.6
1.29
591
1.96
621.4
0.50
651.8
682.2
712.6
743

Forecast
0.27
1.71
2.3
0.39
0.24
1.17
1.7
0.45
0.24
1.33
1.77
0.57
0.19
1.29
1.96
0.5

0.24
1.38
1.93
0.48
0.24
1.38
1.93
0.48
0.24
1.38
1.93
0.48
0.24
1.38
1.93
0.48
0.24
1.38
1.93
0.48

38.87
269.23
437.13
122.53
67.45
436.43
672.12
180.59
96.02
603.63
907.12
238.65
124.60
770.83
1142.11
296.72
153.17
938.03
1377.10
354.78

Error
6.13
65.78
82.87
-22.53
2.56
-66.43
-82.12
1600
-10.59
1400
3.98
1200
-18.63
1000
-77.12
46.35
800
-24.60
600
-45.82
400
17.89
200
13.28
0
0

Bias
MAD

Absolute Error
6.131
65.775
82.8685
22.5265
2.555
66.425
82.1235
10.5905
3.979
18.625
77.1155
46.3455
y = 32.153x + 123.75
24.597
45.825
17.8925
13.2815

Forecast

10

-6.81
36.666

15

Forecast
Linear (Forecast)

20

25