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. . . ,
1 .

F. Rodriguez and D. Rodrik. Trade and Economic Growth: A Skeptics Guide to the Cross-National
Evidence. CEPR Discussion Paper No. 2143, 1999.

50

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. 40-50- XIX
, ,
, 5 .

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100

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( 1950-78. 6
). 1949
, 1850 . 2
1978.
; , 5% 1978. 35% ,
, 1% 7-8%,

: 90-
40% .

A. Maddison. Monitoring the World Economy, 1820-1992. Paris, OECD, 1995; A. Maddison. Chinese
Economic Performance in the Long Run. Paris, OECD, 1998.
5

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0

10

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( % )

D. Irwin. Did Import Substitution Promote Growth in the Late Nineteenth Century? Working Paper 8751.

NBER, Cambridge, MA, 2002.

 ?
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. , . . . , 48, 22 2002. :
Accumulation of Foreign Exchange Reserves and Long Term Economic Growth (co-authored with V. Polterovich).
In: Slavic Eurasias Integration into the World Economy. Ed. By S. Tabata and A. Iwashita. Slavic Research
Center, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, 2004 (http://www.nes.ru/english/research/pdf/2003/PopovPolterovich.doc).
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Hausmann, Ricardo, and Dani Rodrik, Economic Development as Self-Discovery,

Journal of Development Economics, December 2003; Hausmann, Ricardo, Jason Hwang,
and Dani Rodrik, What You Export Matters, NBER Working Paper, January 2006;
Dani Rodrik WHATS SO SPECIAL ABOUT CHINAS EXPORTS? Harvard University, January
2006.
5

13

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2004 Foreign Affairs
Shell China 7 .

, 20- 30-
,
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, 55% 75%
,
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. 1
5 8 ( . 5, 6).

Mayer, Jorg, and Adrian Wood, South Asias Exports in a Comparative Perspective,
Oxford Development Studies, 29(1), 2001.
6

George J. Gilboy. The Myth Behind China's Miracle. Foreign Affairs, July/August
2004.
14

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