I.

1.1.
1.2.
1.3. ,
1.4.
1.5. -
1.6.
16.1.
1.6.2.
1.6.3.
1.6.4.
1.6.5.
1.6.6.
1.7. .
1.8.
1.9.
1.10.
1.11.
1.12.
1.13.

II.
2.1.
2.2.
2.3.
2.4.

2.5.
2.6.
2.7. .

2.8.
2.9.

III.
3.1. (n )
3.2.
3.3. n-
3.4.
3.5.
3.6.
3.7.
3.8.
3.9. .
3.10.
3.11.
3.12.
3.13.

IV.
4.1.
4.2.
4.3.
4.4.
4.5.
4.6.
4.7.

I.
1.1.

.
.
, . ,

. ,
,
. ,
.
(, ).

, ()
().

(.
)
,
, .
.
(. ).

(
).
().
:
() ()
.
: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6 .
:
().

 :
.
:
(). :
(, ) (, );
, (, );
, (, ).
()
, ,
: 1)
, ,
; 2)
, .
,
,

.

, .
, ,

16, 17 (, , ,
..).
. ,
.
..
(1713.),
,
.
,
,
. , ,
. , ,

.

. 1933 .
. .
.

, ,
.
. .
, . . , . . , . . , .
. .
;
,
,
.

1.2.

. ,

,
.
. ,
, ,
(.).

.
(),
- 1, 2, ,
= {1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6}, k
, k = 1,2,,6; ={ 1, 2}
={, }; ={(, ), (, ), (, ), (, )}={ 1, 2, 3,
4}.
,
, : 1)
; 2)
; 3)

.
, ,
. ( )
A,B,C,
: ={
}; ={ }; =
={ }; : C
={ }; D={
} .. A .
2 , 4 , 6 ,
, ,
A 2 , 4 , 6 ,

,
B 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 ,
H 1 , 3 , 5 , C 1 , 3 , 4 ,
D 1 , 2 .
.
:
.
; ; ; ;
. ,

(, ).

 ,
. =[0,).

,
.
, ,
.

1.

.
: A = {
, }, B = {
12}, C = { }, D = {
}, G = {
}.
.
,
, .
,
,
i, j : i 1,6, j 1,6 .
: A={(3,3), (3,6), (6,3), (6,6)}, B=
i, j : i 1,6, j 1,6 , C i,i : i 1,6 ,
D=
i, j : i 1,5, j i 1,6 , G={(3,5), (5,3), (5,6), (6,5)}.

1.3. ,
,
. ,
, .
:
( . 1.5 ).

(.
).
,
, A
:

,
. , !
.

, .
,
.
.
1 , ,
: { 11}.
{ }
; {
}
.
. , A
() B, A
. : .
A ,
,
( ,
), ,
, A,
, B.
A ,
, = .
2. A = { 2, 4,6}
B = { }={ 2, 3, 4, 5, 6},
AB.
A ,
.
A .
. ()
A B ,
, ,
. . ,
. : =
C AB .
=, A B .

 C={ }
D={ }
, CD={1}, 1=(, ). A
H: ={ 2, 4, 6}, H ={1, 3, 5} => H
=.
: =, =, =, A .
,
B, , =.
.

. , 1, 2,N
, i, j, 1 i, j N, i j,
Ai A j .
,
.
. () A B
, ,
, , ..
. , A,
B, .
: =U, =+, A=.
: U=, U=A, UB=B,
AB.
.
, ,
, ..
. , A,
. : C A \ B =.
: =, =; =; =,
A=; =, .
A
. A
, .
, .
A={ },
H={ }
A, H= A A= H .
.
={ }, A = { }.
, A B A .
: A =; + A =; =, =, A =.
A B
() (). : ==
()U(BA). ()(BA)=, AB=()+(BA).
, = B , =, = B + A .
=, =+; A , A = .

10

; ; .

.
.

( ):
U I , I U .
.
,
.

= .
1.4.

:
1. : A B B A,
AB BA;
2.

:
A B C A B C ; ()C=();
3. : A B C AC BC .
4. ( ):
AB U C A U C B U C .

.
. :
1. A I B U B B ;
2. A U B A I B A I B A I B ;
3. A U B A A I B .
1.5.
.
.
( ,
,

11

 ).
.
. F
, :
1) F, F, 2) A F, F, A U B F.

(. .1.3).
,
F A A :
=+. F , A F, A F . ,
.1.3, ,
A B F, , , ,
F. , A B
F, A, B
F A U B F .
, A U B AB F , ,
A I B F . , A B AB ,
, A B F ..
, F
.
F : F
,
(, , ).
3. F= , ,
, ,
. , ,
,
.
4. .
F = (, ,, A ) .
5. R.
[,b), a b . ,
.
,

, ,
R1 .
6. R m ,
a1 , b1 ) a 2 , b 2 ) ... a m , b m ) ,

a k b k , k 1, m .
.
,

, ,
R m .
, 2
,

12

U A k F,

A k F, k 1, 2,..., n,

k 1

k 1

A k F . 2

( )
A1 , A 2 ,..., A n ,...,
.
.
. F
, : 1) F, F, 2)
A1 , A 2 ,..., A n ,... F,
UA n F,
n
.
7. 5.
1
A n ,1 , n=1,2, ,

n
UA n (0,1). ,
n
A n F
R1 : (0,1) F .
(0,1) F R1 .
, F R1
[a,b)

:
{a}, (a, b), a, b , a, b , , b , , b , a, , a, .

1
F R ,

. F
1
1
B R : F B R .
,

F. : - F
,

.
8. , 7, F
R m R m .
m
R m , B R .
9. ,
. 1 , 2 , 3 .
1 , 2 , 3 , 1 , 2 , 1 , 3 , 2 , 3 ,
1 , 2 , 3 .
: ,

13

 . ,
[3]: , F

F
F.
A n ,
n1 A n A n 1
A n 1 A n .
A UA n
A I An


n
n
A n
An
A lim A n
:
. U
,
n
n
A1 , A 2 ,..., A n ,...
A
; In n ,
A1 , A 2 ,..., A n ,...

.
,
UA n ,

A lim A n n
n
I A n ,
n
F ,
(, F).
- .
(, F),
, F
, F,
.

, :
(, F)
, .
. ,
,

.
,
F.
1.6.

14

1.6.1.
, ,
.

( ),
.
, ,
.
n 1, 2,n,
. ,
. ,
,
.
,
, , .
A , ,
m i1 , i2 , i3 ,..., im ,
i1 ,i 2 , ,i m ,
1 n. A :
m
() =
(1.1)
n
.
F
.
, . ,
1
P(k ) , k 1, n. , .
n
.
10. A={
5 }. .
.

1 , 2 , 3 , 4 , 5 , 6 .
( ), 5 6, m = 2.
(1.1) P (A)=2/6=1/3.
11. A={
}. .
. A . 1, 3, 4,
m=3. ()=3/4.
,

, .
,
.
1. P() 0 .

15


, m=0;
2. P() 1 .

, m = n.
3. 0 P(A) 1 .
m
0 m n , 0 1 ;
n
4. P(A) 1 P(A) .
A m
n, A
nm
m
1 1 P(A) .
nm . P(A)
n
n
5. A1 , A 2 ,..., A N

N
N :
P( A k ) P(A k ) .
k 1

k 1

1 A 2.
A
n
A
m
1 1 ,
A 2 m 2 . A1 A 2
m1 + m 2 , ,
A1 + A 2 m1 + m 2 .
m m 2 m1 m 2
P(A1 A 2 ) 1

P(A1 ) P(A 2 ) .
n
n
n
,

:
A1 A 2 ... A N A1 (A 2 ... A N )
A1 (A 2 (A3 A
N ))
P A1 A 2 ... A N
P(A1 ) P(A 2 ... A N ) P(A1 ) P(A 2 ) P(A 3 ... A N )
P(A1 ) ... P(A N ) .
. 10 11
: .
, A
P(k ) (.
P() = A
k
1
5). , 10 P k , A 5 , 6 , ,
6
1 1 1
P A
6 6 3

16

 ,
10 11,
,
,

k , k 1, n ,
.

n
p k P k , p k 0, p k 1 ( 2,3),
k 1

A :
P A pk .
k A

1.6.2.
(1.1),
m n,
. ,

.
.
,

, .
, , , ,
, .
( )
:
, 1- n1 ,
2- n2 ,,- n . K
n1n2n .
12.
0,1,2,3,4,5, 1)
; 2) ; 3)
.
. 1).
1,2,3,4,5. ,
5 , 4 , 3
. ,

5543=300.
2). 5
.
: 0,1,2,3,4,5. ,
56 3 =1080.
3). 5663=540.

17

 : ,
, .
1. n m
, m , n

. m
, n .
n m
Am

n
m
A n n(n 1)...(n m 1)
n!

, 1 m n . , , , b, c.
(n m)!

2
ab, ac, ba, b, ca, cb, A 3 3 2 6.
2. m = n.
,
,

Pn A nn n(n 1)(n 2)...1 n! . a, b, c

: abc, acb, bac, bca, cab, cba,
P3 3! 6.
3. n m m
, n
.
, m
, n .
.
m
n m Cn

Am
n(n 1)...(n m 1)
n!
m
n
Cn

. , a, b,
m!
m!
m!(n m)!
c : ab, ac, bc,
3!
2
C3 3. ,
2!
m
n m
m n, Cn Cn .
4. n m
m ,
m n .
Vnm
m
m
: Vn n . , a,
b, c
2
2
: , ab, ac, ba, bb, bc, ca, cb,cc, V3 3 9.
5. n ,
n1 , n 2 ,

18

, n k k- , n n1 n 2 ... n k ,
, n
.
.
n k
Pn (n1 , n 2 ,...n k )
n!
: Pn (n1 , n 2 ,...n k ) n !n !...n ! . ,
1 2
k
,
4!
, P4 (2, 2) 2! 2! 6 , : , , ,
, , .
, k = 2, n n1 m
n 2 n m

,
n!
m
P
(m,
n

m)

C
n
n .
,
m!(n m)!
Pn (m, n m)
C m, n m .
.
n 1
Cm
n m 1 C n m 1. a,
b, c : aa, ab, ac, bb,
4 3
2
2
6.
bc, cc, C3 21 C4
1 2
13. , p k .
.
. ,
.
p
p
. n Vk k ,
,
p
. m A k ,
A , :
,
(-1) ,
p
(-2) .. m k(k 1)...(k (p 1)) A k ,
Ap
P(A) pk .
k
14.
. ,

.

19

. ,
,
.

2
2
V3 3 9 ,
.
6 2
m A 32 3 2 6 (. ) P(A) .
9 3
15. n
(<n) , n1 ,
n 2 , .., - n k .
?
.
n
. Cn1
n2
, Cn n1 , .., -
nk
n1 n 2
Cnn k n n
n k 1 . m C n C n n1 ...C n n1 n 2
n k 1
1 2
(n n1 )!
(n n1 nk 1 )!
n!
n!

n1 !(n n1 )! n 2 n n1 n 2 ! n k !(n n1 nk )! n1 !n 2 ! n
k!
Pn (n1 , n 2 ,
, n k ) (.
).
16. 3
.
. ,
.
.
n V39 39 , , A,
9!
m P9 (3,3,3) P(A)
0.085 .
3!3!3!39
17. S R .
s . ,
r A.
. n CSs ,
s
,
. m , r
R ,
() sr SR .
m ,
()
CrR CSs rR
r sr
, m CR CS R P(A)
.
CSs
0 r s
.

20

 18.
1, 2,3,..., 2n ,
.
. n,
, n!
n n .
n!
n n .
n n
n!2 .
19.
?
x1 x 2 xn m
.
n m .
m
, p Cn m 1 .
20. m

n ?
. ,

. , m
n , p Cm
n m 1 .
, 6
, C32 21 C42 6. :
, f xy
,
f xx
, f yy
, f yz
, f zz
.
f xz
,
, p Vnm .

, f xy
, f xz
, f yx
, f yy
, f yz
, f zx
, f zy
, f zz
,
f xx

2
p 3 9.
1.6.3.

. ,

. .

.
, , .
m ,
.

21

 ,
. ,
,
, - ,
.
:
.
.
,i m , i k
, i1 ,i 2 ,
, =1, 2,, m, .
n .
-: , i1
, ,
. m .
.
i1,,im ,

n .
. 1.
1

nm

Am
n

Cm
n m 1

Cm
n

. 19, 20 ,
.
21. 25
, (
). ?
. ,
; 3

22

 25 , , ..
, .
, .1, |
|= A m
n =25*24*23=13800. ||
n . .
22. 25
.
?
. - ,
, , , .
m
1 ||= Cn =13800/3!=2300 .
23. 5 , 1, 2, 3,
4, 5.
. ,

23


A.
.
: =(i1, i2, i3), i1, i2, i3

. .
||=53 (. . 1) ,
, . A 2-
3- ,
={=(i1, i2, i3): ik }.
3- : i1, i2 i3.
. , A,
C12 13 13 + 13 C12 13 + 13 13 C12 =3 C12 13 13 =3233=54.
,

()=54/53=2*(3/5)3=0,432.
1.6.4.

, .

, . ,
.
() . ,
, .. .

, .

,
1.
,
, , , .. (
);
2. (
, ) ;
3. -
().
:
A
P A
(1.2)

,
.
(1.2) ,
.
24. 10 .
, 2
.

24

. ,
,
. (1.2):
2 1
P(A) .
10 5
25.
1886 .
t1 , t 2 . ,
, t,
.
.
?
. ,

.
(),
t. ,
.
.
,
. ,
, ,
a, , .
.
.
(0,0) .
: x,
y, 0 x, y . , x
y a.

x y = x = a. () =
2 () / ()=
2a a
2
2
2
2
2
=[l -2 (l - a) /2]/ l =[2al - a ]/ l - .
l
l

25

 26 ( ).
,
. 2, <.
, -
.
.
, .
, .
, ={(, ): 0 , 0 }, ()= (. .).

:
sin,
(,) :

A x, : 0 x sin , 0 .
()= a sin d =2,
0
2
P()=
.
l

26

1.6.5.

, ,

, ,
.

. .

n n r .
( ), n n/n
0,5.
18 4040 ,
2048 ,
n/n=2048/4040=0,507.
24000 ,
12012 , n/n=0,5005.
:
-
, ,
p [0,1].
. . (1713 .)
> 0 n ,
A p [0,1]
nA

, 1: P n p 1, n .

A
n A , ,
:
n
P (A) A
(1.3)
n
A
. n, :
P(A) P (A) . .
,
.
,
, :
1) {nA/n}

; 2) ,
, ..

27

 ; 3)
A
.
-, A -
, ,
: - nA/n
n A (. 5
4 2 5).
, ,
: 1,
0, .
1.6.6.
(, F).
. , F -
( F ).
. - F
, F
():
1. () 0 F ;
2. () = 1 ;
3. A n ,
A i A j , i j, P( UA k )= P(A k )
k

.
F

(,F):
, ( 1 3),
: ()=1. ,
F, .
(, F, P) .
. , F P
(, F).

. .
( , ,
.., ).
. 3
: A3 :

A1 , A 2 ,..., A n , P A k P(A k ) ; 4:
k
k
1, 2, , A n 1 A n
A I A n lim A n
, n 1,
.
n
n 1

28

A n ) = lim P(A n )
()= P( nlim

n
( ?).
4
( . [1], . 28).
A3 4
: A4 :
{An} , A n 1 A n , n 1,
A U A n lim A n
lim P(A n )
. P()= n
.
n
n 1

13, 4, A4 ,
.
.
1. () = 0.
+= 2, 3.
2. ()=1 ().
, = +, = , 2, 3.
3. , () ().
, =+. =
, 2, 3 P(B) P(A) P(AB) .
, 1, () ().
. ,
, ()=() ().
4. P() 1.
3 2.
. A F 0 () 1.
, 4 1.
P(AUB) =P(A)+P (B)-P (AB)
5.

.
, UB = A+(BA), B=(BA) + AB;
,
, 3
UB B : P(AUB) = P(A) + P (B-A)
P (B)= P (B-A) + P(AB). P(B-A)= P(B) - P(AB).
6. P(AUB) P (A)+P (B).
5 1.
n

k 1

k 1

i<j

n 1
7. ( U A k )= P(A k ) P(Ai A j ) ... ( 1) P(A1A 2 ...A n ) .

5
,
,

29

k 1

k 1

. A i A j , ij, ( A k ) =
P(Ak).

8. P

UA n P(A n ).

n
n
, 6,
5.
.
n 1
B

A
U k , n 2, B1 A1 .
n

k 1

PUA n PUA n Bn

Ann n 2 n
; An
n
P(A n Bn ) P(A n ) , , A n Bn .

P A n Bn P A n .
P U A n
P
A
B

U
n
n
=

= n 1
n 1
n 1
n 1

9. {AnA} ,

A n A
I
n
n 1

A lim A n n
n 1,

n
UA n , A n A n 1
n
P(A)= lim P(A n ). ,
n
.
1. ,
,
.
,
13, .

.
2.
,
.
,

,
,

n-
, n 1 , { n-
X B B( R n )} .
. .

.

30

 27.
4 . ,
A.
:
1 n.
. ,

A.
. : k
- . = U , ()=(
n
U ). 7: ( U A k )=
n

k 1

i<j

P(A k ) P(Ai A j ) ... (1)n 1 P(A1A 2 ...A n ) .

k 1

:
n 1 !
n 2 !
P Ak
, P Ai A k
,

..,

n!
n!
, - - ,
n1 n1
; i k
, n2
n2
.. , , -
n , .. n ,
i k
, C2n ..
1
1 1
1
1 n 1 !
2 n 2 !
()= n
n
++(1) n
=1 + +(1) n .
n!
2 6
n!
n!
n!

1 e x = 1. n
P A ; 1 e 1 .
1 1 1 5
.
27 (n=4) ()=1
2 6 24 8

1.7. .

A,
,
. ,
.

31

 ,
, , ,
. ,
A , B?
, ,
, .
.
A={ }, ={
}. . 2, 4 6,
. 4, 5, 6.
, ()=()=1/2. :
A, ,
? ,
. 4, 5 6. A
. : 4 6.
, A ,
, 2/3. ,
.
,
, ,
(|).
,
,
, ,
, .
, ,
,
. . .
. .
n B : n B =3, ={4, 5, 6}.
n B . ,
A, n AB : nAB= 2, ={4, 6}.

n
P A B AB
(1.4)
nB

. .
. (, F, )
. () > 0 (, P B 0 ), F,
P AB
P A B
(1.5)
P B

A .
(1.4) .
, (1.5).
(1.4) n .

32

n AB / n P AB
, P A B n / n P B ,

B
(1.5).
P(B, B) P(B)
, P(B B) 1, P(B B) P(B) P(B) .
F, P A B
A F. , P A B
1 3, ,
. ,
1) P A B 0
;
2) P B 1,
( I )
P( B)

()
()

1; 3) A n

()
.
P(UA n B)

((U n ) I B) P(U(A n I B)
P(A n I B)

P(B)
P(B)
P(B)
P An B .

[3],
(, F),
(.|) (, F b ), F b
A I , F.
(1.5)

()=()(|)=()(|),

(1.6)

. (1.6)
.

P(A1A 2
A n ) P(A
1 )P(A 2 A1 )
P(A
n A1A 2 A
(1.7)
n-1 )
,
()=()()

33

(1.8)

1. (1.8)
P(A B) P(A) P(B A) P(B)

(1.9)

(1.6) (1.8).
. :
A B, B
.
2. ,
, , .
P(B A) 1 P(B A) 1 P(B) P(B)
,
=>
P(B A ) = P (B). 1

,
.
P(A B) 1 P(A B) 1 P(A) P(A); P(B A) 1 P(B A)
1 P(B) P(B).
3. A 1, 2 12=,
1+2.

P(AI (B1 B2 )) P(AI B1 ) P(AI B2 ) P(A)P(B1) P(A)P(B 2 )

P(A)(P(B1 ) P(B2 )) P(A)P(B1 B 2 ).
4. 1, 2,, n ,

P A1A 2 ...A n P I A k
(1.10)
P Ak
k
k
1,, n ,
i, j 1, n, i j, P A i A j P A i P A j , i, j, k 1, n,
i j k, P(Ai A jA k ) P(Ai )P(A j )P(A k ) ..
,
, k=2. ,
,
.
5. 1,, n
A=UAk.
().

A UA k I A k A k , k=1,,n,
( 2 ).

(1.6)

P(A)=P(A1 )P(A 2 ) ... P(A n )=(1-P (A1 ))(1-P (A 2 )) ... (1-P

(A n )).
,

34

() = 1

(1-P(Ak )) .
k 1

(1.11)

.
28. 7 ,
.
3 . ,
A.
. : A1
; A 2 ;
A 3 .
A=A1A 2 A3 .
(1.7) P(A) P(A1A 2 A3 ) P(A1 )P(A 2 / A1 )P(A 3 / A1A 2 ) .
1
P(A1 ) .
7
A1 , 6 2
2 1
. P(A 2 / A1 ) .
6 3
P(A3 / A1A 2 ) : A1 A 2 ,
5 1 ,
1
1 1 1
P(A3 / A1A 2 ) . P(A) 0.0095 .
5
7 3 5
29 (..). ,
(), (),
() , . ,
, .
? ?
. ,
2 1
P(K) P(C) P() .

:
4 2

:
1
P(KC) P(C) P(K) . , , ,
4
,
1
1
, P(KC) P(K) P(C) P() .
4
8
30. 3 (. . 6) A={
}, ={
}. A ?
.

(, ), (P, P), (, P), (P, ) , A B

. : ={(, ), (, )}, ={(, ), (, )},

35

, ()=2/4=1/2 ()=2/4=1/2.
(|). (|)=()/().

()=1/4,

={(,)}.
, (|)=(1/4)/(1/2)=1/2=(), A
.
P(A B)
.
. ={(,),(,)}. .
(, ),
, P(A B) =1/2.
31.
[0,1][0,1]. ={ ,
x=a}; ={ ,
y=b}, 0 < a,b < 1.
A B ?
. .
1 1;
1 1b. (.)
, , ()=1, ()= 1, ()= 1b.
1 1b =>
()=(1)(1b). , ()()=() =>
.
,
, II
1 1. B
I 1 1b.
P(B A) = (I) / (II)=(1)(1b)/(1)1=(1b)=
=().

36

y
1
I

II

1.8.
(, F, )
H1 , H 2 ,
, H n .
Hk
: 1) H i I H j , ij; 2)
. Hk
k
.

F,

P H k , P A H k , k=1,n.
==(H1+H2+
+Hn) = AH1+AH2++AHn,
H k
AH k , ..

AHi I AH j ,
i j .
P A P AH1 ... P AH n |

7
, (1.6)|=
= P H1 P A / H1 P H 2 P A / H 2 ... P H n P A / H n .

37

H1

H3

H4

A
,

H()=
P(H k )P(A HHk 5)
2
k 1

(1.12)

(1.12) .
.
H k , 1) 2).
32. N n.
:
, , , ?
.
n

. : 1
N
2
n
Nn
. ( 1 )=
, ( 2 ) =
.
N
N
: {
n 1
| }=
; {
N 1
|
n
} =
. {
N 1
}:
{

}=
=
n n 1 N n n
n

.
N N 1
N N 1 N
, ,
, , , , ?
1.9.

38

 . ,
. ,
.
: H1,, Hn
P(H1 ), P(H 2 ),..., P(H n ).
, .
,
P H k A ,
, A.
, (Hk), k=1,,n,
, P H k A , k=1,,n,
, .
,
( , . ,
, , ,
),
( ).
, P H k A P H k A / P A P H k P A H k / P A
(1.5) (1.6), k=1,, n.
(1.12) :
P(H k ) P(A H k )
P(H k ) P(A H k )
P(H k A)

(1.13)
P(A)
P(H ) P(A H ))

1.10.

33. 4 , , , .
. ,
.
.
. ;
.
, . m=n,
, . 1,

||= nn =n!=4!=24.
, , ()=1/24.

39

 ,
28, .. :
1 1 1
1
P(A) 1 .
4 3 2
24
34. 36 6 .
, :
1) ;
2) ;
3) ;
4) ;
5) .
. 1)
.
6
, C36 .
. , A (
). .
A, 6 .
6
9, , ,
3
6 9 C 9 ( 9
). , 3
4C9
3
4- , , n A 4C9 . , P A 6 .
C36
2) 5 ,
, ,
5

5 n A C35
,
5
C35
P A 6 .
C36
3) ,
1
, C4
5
, C32 ,
5
n A C14 C32

1
5
C4 C32
P A
.
6
C36
2
4
4)
, n A C9 C27
2
4
C C
P A 9 6 27 .
C36
5)
,
, A {

40

 6 }.

C27
C627
P(A) 6 , P A 1 P(A) 1 6 .
C36
C36
35.
?
. , , 56 . ,
,
.
. ,
3
4 4 4 4
P(A) * * 0.00036443
56 56 56 56
.
, 56 ;
3- . ,
, , . 1 .
3

56 . ,
A, :
, , 4.
1 1 1
, n A n = 4 4 4 .
3
3
4
4
, P(A) 3 .
56 56
36.
5 .
7 ,
. , 1) ; 2)
; 3)
; 4) 2, 2 1
?
.
5
5
, .1, n V7 7 . 1)
n A , A,
1
1, P(A) 5 . 2) ,
7
, , , ,
7
1
7 , n A =7, P(A) 5 4 . 3) 5
7
7
5
7 n A A 7 ,
5
A7
P(A) 5 . 4)
7
. , A,
5
P5 (2, 2,1) ; ,

41

 3 7 A 37
. 3

A 7 P5 (2, 2,1) A 62 P5 (2, 2,1)

3
n A P5 (2, 2,1) A 7 P(A)

.
75
74
37. , n
m .
. k
. P(A).
. ,
,
.
,
. ,
. ,
. ,

:
, ,
.... , 1
, 3 , ,
4 . . .
(m1) n+m1
m 1
, = Cn m 1 .
k , nk
m1 ,
2
Cm

,
n m k 2 .
m2
Cn m k 2
P A m 1
.
Cn m 1

- . ,
, .
38. , 37,

.
m n. A k
. P(A).
.
m n .
n
, . . 1 Cm
.
,
: n ,
;
(n1) , n- , (n+1)
. .
m n. k

42

 , nk
mk
n k ,
n k P(A) C m k
37. , n A =Cm k ,
.
Cnm

- , ,
, .
39. , 37,
. . n
m .
A: n1 ,
n2 , , m- nm , n1+n2+
+nm=n. P(A).
. ,
, n
. ,
.
, ,
( ,
n
), , . m
. , A,
n3
nm
n1 n 2
Cn Cn n Cn n n ...Cn n ... n
. ,
1
1
2
1
m 1
n1 n,
. ,
nn1 ,
n
n2

..

n
n1 2
m
Cn C

C
n n1
n n1 nm 1 :
n
n1 n 2
Cn C

C m
n n1
n n1 nm 1 =
n!(n n1)!*...*
(n n1 ... n m 1)!

n1 !(n n1)!n 2 !(n n1 n 2 )!*...* n m !(n n1 ... n m )! =

n!
= n !n !n ! .
1 2
m

nA
n!
P A n !n !
n m !m n .
1 2

- , .
40. n , n1
, n2 ,, nk k- , n=n1+n2++nk.
m , m n. A={

43

 m1 , m2 ,
, mk k- }, m=m1+m2++mk. P(A).
. , ,
m
, Cn ;
m1
A . : m1 n1 Cn1 ,
mk
, mk nk Cn k .
m

mk
1 m2
, .. n A Cn1 C n 2 Cn k .
mk
1 m2
Cm
n1 C n 2 ...C n k
P(A)
.

P(A)
Cm
n
P(m1 , m 2 ,...,m k )
A m1 0, n1 , m 2 0, n 2 ,..., m k 0, n k ,
n k n, mk m
,

P(m1,..., m k ), m1 0, n1 ,..., m k 0, n k ,
.
=2 17.
41. 6 49 k , k 0,6 ,
k. k.
. ,
k 6 k
6
C49 , n Ak C6 C496 ,
C k C6 k
P(A k ) P(k,6 k) P(A k ) 6 6496 ,
C49
k 0,6,
Ak
C64 C243
k. , P(A 4 ) P(4, 2) 6 0.00097 , k=4;
C 49
C66 C043
1
8
k=6 P(A 6 ) P(6,0) 6 6 7 10 .
C49
C49
42. .
A={ 1- 2- }, ={
}, ={
10 }. ?
.
4 2
3 1
5
1
P(A) ; P(B) ; P(C) . P(AB) ;
6 3
6 2
6
3
1
7
P(AC) ; P(BC) . P(AB) P(A)P(B);
2
18

44

P(AC) P(A)P(C);
P(BC) P(B)P(C) , :
A , .
43.
.
0.7, 0.8.
,
A?
. A i i- ,
i=1,2. A A1 UA 2 .
P(A) P(A1 ) P(A 2 ) P(A1A 2 ) ,
P(A1A 2 ) P(A1 )P(A 2 ) . P(A) 0.7 0.8 0.56 0.94.

:
P(A) 1 P A 1 P A1 P A 2 1 (1 P(A1 ))(1 P(A 2 ))
1 0.3 0.2 0.94.
44.
89%, 92% 97% ,
1:2:3. ,
?
, ?
. H1 , H 2 , H3 , ,
1-, 2- 3- .

.
1
2 1
1
P(H1 ) , P(H 2 ) , P(H 3 ) . ={
6
6 3
2
}. P(A / H1 ) 0.11, P(A / H 2 ) 0.08,
P(A / H3 ) 0,03 . (1.12)
1
1
1
=0.06.
: P(A) 0.11 0.08 0.03
6
3
2
(1.13)
P(H1 )P(A H1 ) 0.5 0.03
P(H1 A) : P(H1 A) =

0.25 .
P(A)
0.06

1.11.
(
, )
, : 1)
, 2 . ,
, B ,
, ,
B , ,
;
2)

45

 n .
,
; 3)

.
,
p q=1
p.

.

. k- , k-
, m
, m- (
), 1kn, 1mn.
,
n {,}.
2n .

,

P() P()P()P()P() *...* P() pqpp *...* q p kq n k ,
k ,
(nk) .
n ,
, ,
. , ,
p=q=1/2.
A A={
n m }, m = 0, 1, 2,, n.
A P(A)=P(n,m).
A 2n
A,
. ,
A, m ,
m .
m n m
P(m ) p q
(. ).
, m n
, . ,
m
Cn . P(A)
m n m
P(A) P(n, m) C m
. , P (n,m)
np q
m n ,
p,

m n m
P(n, m) C m
np q

46

(1.14)

 q =1p.
(1.14) .
, P(m )
m , m 0,1,..., 2 n.

n
2

2n

P m

m 0

Cnm P(m )

m 0

P m 1 .

m 0

Cnm pm q n m (p q)n 1 .

m 0

, A
n. 1.6 ,
,
. P(k) , A
P(A) P k
m . : ={1,,m},
.
A
k

() ,
, ,
.
, , p=q=1/2,
P (n, m) :
n
2 ,
, , Cm
n ,
n
m
n

m
Cm
1
1 1
P(n, m) n C m
Cm
.

n 2
n
n

2 2
2
, A m m
.
n m1 , m 2
:
P{m1 m m 2 }

m2

Ckn pk q n k

k m1

(1.15)

,
n
m1 1 m 2 n:
n

P{m 1} P(n, k) 1 P(n,0) 1 q n

k 1

47

(1.16)

 45. 6
,
p = 0,8.
( ),
. P(A).
. P(A) .
6 A ,
(
). p=0.8.
, , ,
,,,,,,,
,,,.

k
k .
k C6k . A
2
2 C6 15 , 3
C36 20 ,
4 C64 C62 15 , 5
C56 C16 6 6.
6
k k 6k
(1.15) P(A) P(A) C6 p q
.
k 2

.
P( A ), A
0 1.
P(A) C06 p 0 q 6 C16 pq 5 0.26 6 * 0.8* 0.25 0.26 (1 2.4) 5* 0.25.
P(A) 1 P(A) = 1 5* 0.25 1 0.0016 0.9984 .

1.12.

, , (1.14)
- .
( n)
P(n,m).
. ,
n
.
. n
,
p
m

e , m 0,1, 2,..., n .
np , P(n, m)
m!

48

n(n 1) *...* (n m 1) m
m m n m
n m
P(n, m) C n p q

p (1 p)

m!
m
n m
n(n 1) *...* (n m 1)

np p
;
1
n
m!
n
n

m
m

n!

lim P n, m lim
1 1

m
n
n m!
n
n
(n

m)!n

m
m
m
n!

e 1 1 e . lim 1
1; nlim
=

(n m)!n m
n
m!
m!
n
(n m 1)(n m 2) ... n

n m

m k
1.
n
n
n
k 1
,
nq .
P(n, m) , ,
P(m, ) .
[2], n=5*103 p=10-3
0.01%.
P(m, ) .
, p
1.
46. 100 .
= 0.04.
, 2 .
. (100,2).
, np=4

4 2 4
. , P(100, 2) ; P(2, 4) e ; 0.1465 .
2!
(100,2) = 0.1450.
0.0015,
0.13%.
47. , n
p
m+k , k k
.
.
k
,
m nk .
.
Cm

n k .
m k n m k
P(n, m k) C m
p
q
,
m

0,
n

k.
n k
lim

1
n

lim

49

1.13.
n , np nq,
,
.
, m
n ,
,
m1 m2.
.

n , m

m np
1
P(n, m)

,
(1.17)
npq npq

2
x
1 2
(x)
e , x R; (x)
2
.

1
n n
n
n
0, n .
n! n 2n * e
,
12n
npq P(n, m) n :
n!
npqP(n,m) npq
p mq n m
m!(n

m)!
n n 2ne n n p m q n m
npq m

m 2me m m (n m) n m 2(n m)e (n m) m n

m

n m

n 2 pq np
nq
.

m(n m) m n m
m np
x
m x npq np

npq
n , x
n ; n m nq x npq

. ,
n 2 pq
n 2 pq

(x npq np)(nq x npq )

m(n m)

1
2

50

ln

1, n ;
p
q
1 x
1 x

np
nq

m
n m
np
nq
m
nm
m ln
(n m) ln

m n m
np
nq
np x npq
nq x npq
(np x npq ) ln
(nq x npq ) ln

np
nq

p
q
(np x npq ) ln 1 x
(nq x npq ) ln 1 x

np
nq

q
q
1
(np x npq ) x
x2
o

np
2np
n

p
p
1
(nq x npq ) x
x2
o

np
2np
n

x 2q
q3
1
x3
o(1) o( )
2
np
n
2
3
x p
p
1
x npq x 2 p
x3
o(1) o( )
2
nq
n

x npq x 2 q

x2
1
x2
o(1) o( )
n
2
2
n

nq
np

m n m

n m

x2
2

, n .
x

1 2
m np
e
, n , x
.

2
npq
,
n ,
x2
1
1 2 x m np
P(n, m)
e
,
npq , .
npq 2
npq P(n, m)

51

 n25,
1
, p
. (x)
2
.
48.
0.8. , 400
300 ?
. n np,
.
1
m np
P(n, m)
(
)

(1.17):
npq
npq
1
300 320

(
) 0.0022.
8
400 0.8 0.2
49. P(n, k) n=1000, =10, =0.01.
10
10
90
(1000,10)= C1000 (0.01) (0.99) 0.12573 .
(1000,10)0.12679.

(10,24)0.12511.
.
n , ,
m1 m2,

P(m1 m 2 ) (x 2 ) (x1 ),

x1

m1 np
npq

, x2

m 2 np

npq

, (x)

y dy 1 .

(1.18)
x

(y)dy

1
e

dy, x R.

1
(x) 0 (x) , 0 (x) ,
2 2
x y
1
0 (x)
e 2 dy, x R.
2 0
(x) . (y)
: ( x) 1 (x) 0 ( x) 0 (x) .
(x) 0 (x) .
:

52

P m1 m 2 0 (x 2 ) 0 (x1 )

(1.19)

.

, (..4.7).
50. 20% , ,
. ,
0.9 100 ?
. n , .
= 0.2 ,
. P 100 m 0.9 .
100 np 1
100 0.2n
P 100 m 0 () 0
0

0.9 ;
2

npq
0.4
n

100 0.2n
0.2n 100
0

0
0.4
0.4
0.4 n
0.4 n

0.2n 100
1.28 ( ) n 2.56 n 500 0 .
0.4 n

n ,
n ; 23.7 n ; 562.

[2], n 20. , n 20,100 ,
0,7 , ,
. n 100, 0,15
,
.

1. .
2. .
3. , ,
?
4. , .
5. , .
6. , .
7. .
8. .

53

9.

.
.
10. .
11. .
12. .
13. , .
14. .
15. ?
?
16. .
17. ?
18. .
19. .
.
1. .

.
: A={
}; ={
6}; C ={ }; \, ,
, \, (U).
2. 3 . A i , i 1,3,
i .
A i A i : 1) {3
};
2){3 };
3) {
}; 4) { }; 5) {
}; 6) { }; 7) {
3- }.
3. A, ,C . =.
4. [0,1] .

: A={ ,
}, B={
} .
5. A i , i 1,3, .


: 1)

54

; 2) ; 3)
A1 ; 4) ; 5) A1 A 2
, A 3 ; 6)
; 7) ; 8)
; 9) .
6. .
: F={, , {, ,
, }, {, , , }}?
7. .
A={
}, B={
}, C={
}.
: 1) ABC; 2) A+B+C; 3) ABC ABC ABC ;
4)
ABC ABC
ABC ; 5) ABC ; 6) A+B+C ABC?
8. A B . , AUB, ,AUBUC.
9.
.
, , ,

. A ,
,
, B , ,

. A + B, AB,
B\A ,A .
10. .
,
, , (
A) ( B). A + B,
AB, B\ A, A .
11. 10
4 .
?

55

12. , 20 ,
.
?
?
13.
1 100. ,
5.
14. .
,
.
15. 500 . ,
490
10 ?
16.
n k
. ,
n1 , n 2 ,, - n k
?
17. (9 4 )
. ,
.
18. n
n . ,
?
19. , .
, . ,
k- .
, ?
20. 10
,
1 . , 5
200 ?
21. R n .
,
a, 0 a R.
22. 8 .
, ?

56

23.
0,85. ,
120 .
24. 10 , 2 .
, 6
.
25. 3 .
,
, 0.6. ,
.
26. .

: ?
27. , 400
104 ,
0.2.
28. , = 0.1. ,
, ,
0.9544, ,


0.03.
29. , 3 1,2,3,
. ,

.
30. 36 .
: ;

7.
31. 40 ,
.. .
, (
).
32. 4-
: , , , , .
, ?

57

33. 4 .
, .
, 8
A;
.
34. 1, 2, 3 6-
. , 1 1
, 2 2 , 3 3 ?
35. 7- 3 .
, ,
. : A 4
, B , C
.
36. A
4%, B 3,5%.
95%. , ) ,
A, B; )
A B.
37. 10 , 3
. ,
,
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38. 135-3.-..
. :
, 1,3,5;
; .
39.
. 10 5 .
, ?
40. 1, 2, 3, 4 ,
4 . P 2 1 , P 3 2 ,
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.

58

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.

59

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60

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,

61

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Ar={|1-2|r} Br={1+23r}.
70. A .
A B ? A ?
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62

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63

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64