Cody Jones

Physics 427
Homework
September 10, 2014
1.
(1) Two fair coins are thrown so our sample space is = {(H, H), (H, T), (T, H), (T, T)}. The probability
of winning requires a Head and a Tails. Our sample space has two, a (H, T) and (T, H). We know
one is a Head, so that eliminates the (T, T). This leaves us with three possible outcomes. So the
probabilities for the second coin are:
P(H) =
1
3
P(T) =
2
3
(2) Now the coins are not fair, so Heads are more likely than Tails with a probability of p. The largest p
we can expect without a negative monetary gain would require the probability to lose to be twice as
large as the probability to win. So
P(H) = p
P(T) = (1 p)
P(H) = 2 P(T) p = 2 (1 p)
p = 2 2p
p =
2
3
2. This universe has four elements to our sample space. = {A, B, C, D}. One of the four boxes has
$1000 as a prize, so the probability of winning is f(x) = 1/4 with x . Thus by the denition of the
expectation value, E(x) =

x
x
gain
f(x) with x
gain
is the money won.
E(x) =

x
x
gain
f(x)
= 0(0.25) + 0(0.25) + 0(0.25) + $1000(0.25)
= $250
If we begin by choosing two boxes, then by choosing one of the boxes we initially chose we still have
only a 1/4 chance of choosing the right box. However, by choosing the one box that was not initially
chosen, the probability of it being the loosing box is 1/3, so the expectation value of this box is
E(x) =

x
x
gain
f(x)
= $1000(1/4 + 1/4) + $1000(1/3)
Here is the rst test on building my own Paper. There are two choices, switch or not to switch. If the
player does not switch, there will still be choices, 2H
2
+O
2
= 2H
2
O. (x+y)
n
= E(x) =

x
label1a
There are two choices, switch or not to switch. If the player does not switch, there will still be choices,
= {A, B, C, D, E}. The probability any one of those choices being the winning box is x, f(x) = 1/5
1
where x . Thus, by the denition of the expected value, E(x) =

x
x
gain
f(x). Where x
gain
is
the amount of money gained.
E(x) =

x
x
gain
f(x)
= 0(.2) + 0(.2) + 0(.2) + 0(.2) + $1000(.2)
= $200

n n
1
n
2
n
3

possible choices for the third group.

=
h
p
2