Perodo

D. Real
Mm3
1
3256
2
3315
3
3006
4
3560
3192
5
3300
3294
6
3051
3289
7
3425
3304
8
3703
3259
9
3240
3393
10
3231
3456
11
2887
3391
12
3918
3119
13
3271
3345
14
3073
3359
15
3396
3421
16
3036
3247
17
3196
3168
18
4106
3209
19
3449
3446
20
3913
3584
21
3324
3823
22
3277
3562
23
3204
3505
24
4079
3268
Erro Acumulado do 13 ao 24
MAD do 13 ao 24

Erro

368
6
-238
121
444
-153
-225
-504
799
-74
-286
-25
-211
28
897
3
329
-499
-285
-301
811
388
312

Mdia Mvel
Mm6

3248
3276
3341
3380
3325
3256
3401
3375
3270
3296
3264
3315
3346
3376
3516
3504
3544
3546

Erro

177
427
-101
-149
-438
662
-130
-302
126
-260
-68
791
103
537
-192
-227
-340
534
572
301

Mm12

3324
3326
3305
3338
3294
3286
3374
3376
3393
3400
3404
3430

Demanda Real x Prevista pela Mdia Mvel

4500

4000

3500

3000

2500

2500

2000

1500
1

D. Real

Mm3

10

11

Mm6

12

13

14

15

Mm12

Erro

799

752

444
368
252
121
6

-25

-74
-153
-248

-238

-211

-225
-286

-504

-748

-1248

Erro

-53
-253
91
-302
-98
820
76
538
-69
-123
-200
649
1075
273

sta pela Mdia Mvel

Mdia Mvel
Perodo
D. Real
Mm3
Jan
100
Fev
102
Mar
101
Abr
104
101
Mai
102
102
Jun
101
102
Jul
102
102
Ago
103
102
Set
103
102
Out
103
103
Nov
104
103
Dez
103
103
Erro Acumulado
MAD

Erro

100
3
0
-1
0
1
1
0
1
0
4

102

15

16

17

18

19

20

21

897
811

329

28

211
-285 -301

-499

22

23

24

101

104

102

101

102

103

103

103

104

103

Perodo X
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
300

Demanda
2
X
Real Y
3,973
1
3,531
4
3,523
9
3,551
16
3,524
25
3,632
36
3,525
49
3,620
64
3,159
81
3,084
100
3,204
121
2,826
144
3,188
169
2,991
196
2,633
225
2,792
256
2,779
289
2,687
324
2,457
361
2,361
400
2,474
441
2,428
484
1,965
529
1,949
576
Somatrios
71856
4900

X.Y
3,973
7,062
10,569
14,204
17,620
21,792
24,675
28,960
28,431
30,840
35,244
33,912
41,444
41,874
39,495
44,672
47,243
48,366
46,683
47,220
51,954
53,416
45,195
46,776
811620

Perodo X
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
Erro Acumulado

Demanda
Real Y
3,973
3,531
3,523
3,551
3,524
3,632
3,525
3,620
3,159
3,084
3,204
2,826
3,188
2,991
2,633
2,792
2,779
2,687
2,457
2,361
2,474
2,428
1,965
1,949
Erro Acumulado

Demanda
Prevista
3860
3784
3709
3634
3559
3483
3408
3333
3257
3182
3107
3032
2956
2881
2806
2730
2655
2580
2505
2429
2354
2279
2203
2128

Erro
113
-253
-186
-83
-35
149
117
287
-98
-98
97
-206
232
110
-173
62
124
107
-48
-68
120
149
-238
-179
2.1

113.287
253.426
186.139
82.852
34.565
148.722
117.009
287.296
98.417
98.13
97.157
205.556
231.731
110.018
172.695
61.592
123.879
107.166
47.547
68.26
120.027
149.314
238.399
179.112
3332.296
138.8457

Vendas Mensais
Y (p)

Meses X
Jan
Fev
Mar
Abr
Mai
Jun
Jul
Ago
Set
Out
Nov
Dez

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12

78.00
12 XY
X
Y

540
470
485
480
510
528
568
600
585
615
660
785
Somatrios
6826.00

X.Y

1
4
9
16
25
36
49
64
81
100
121
144

540
940
1455
1920
2550
3168
3976
4800
5265
6150
7260
9420

650.00

47444.00
78.00
6826.00

X2

569328
532428
b= 21.5034965

650.00
2

(X)

7800

6084
a=

Y b X =
n

47444.00

6084
429.0638333

450,71 2 ,99 143,10

1,757
13

43,10

Previso
Vendas
2007 (p)

1,757

Vendas por loja Nmero de

Y (mil)
alunos X (mil)
31.56
10.00
38.00
12.00
25.25
8.00
47.20
15.00
22.00
6.50
34.20
11.00
45.10
14.50
32.10
10.10
29.00
9.20
40.90
13.40
40.00
12.70
24.20
7.60
41.00
13.10
Somatrios
450.51
143.10
13 XY
X
Y

X.Y

100
144
64
225
42.25
121
210.25
102.01
84.64
179.56
161.29
57.76
171.61

315.6
456
202
708
143
376.2
653.95
324.21
266.8
548.06
508
183.92
537.1

1663.37

5222.84

5224.84 b=
143.1
450.51

X2
(X)2

67922.92
64467.981
3.014255

1663.37

21623.81

20477.61

20477.61
1.741615385

a=
Y= 1,757 + 2,99X

XY X Y = 13 5224,86 143,10 450,71 2

13 1663,37 143,10
n X X

Y b X =
n

450,71 2 ,99 143,10

1,757
13

,86 143,10 450,71

63,37 143,10

43,10

1,757

2,99

Aquecedor

Motor A (1)

Eixo (1)

Suporte (2

Enrolamento (1)

Ventilador

Suporte (2)

Motor B (2)

Eixo (1)

Grade (2)

Enrolamento (2)